2011 07 13 migbank daily technical analysis report
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
1/15
MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4420 1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.4305GBP/USD SHORT 3 1.5910 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345 (Entered on 12/07/2011) 1.6010USD/JPY Await fresh signal.USD/CHF Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8551.USD/CAD Await buy trade setup (neutral).AUD/USD SHORT 3 1.0630 1.0390/1.0205/0.9700 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.0780GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 128.00 127.00/124.65/122.36 129.00EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 115.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF SHORT 1 1.1805 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.1805GOLD Await fresh signal.SILVER Await fresh signal.
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit w ill be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mor e profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2/15
2
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Breaks out of triangular consolidation.
EUR/USD has resumed its bearish activity and has broken out of the all-important triangular consolidation pattern.
The move follows last Fridays worse-than-expected NFP figures whichparadoxically pushed the US dollar higher, as market sentiment refocused
back onto risk aversion and a flight to traditional quality/safe haven assets.
Our short position favours sustained weakness to unlock an acceleratedimpulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend). Only a
sustained close above 1.4653 and most importantly 1.4711/30 will lead us
to re-evaluate.
Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high), toconfirm a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension into 7701
and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Further upside scope is also
being supported by increased long positions on our COT liquidity, which
has been positive for the last 6 weeks.
SPECIAL REPORT :EUR/USD ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Please select link: REPORT
VIDEO
EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfmailto:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
3/15
3
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Consolidation resolves lower.
GBP/USD continues to exhibit signs of weakness after breaking out of adaily triangular consolidation pattern. In doing so a push below the 200
day moving average has also been realised.
The period of consolidation that had been evident in the daily timeframehas since broken lower, turning the outlook decidedly negative in both the
short and longer-term timeframes.
A minor squeeze higher is now sought for the creation of a lower high anda continuation of weakness.
Further weakness has the potential to initially target 1.5345 over comingsessions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3 at 1.5910, Objs: 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345, Stop: 1.6010.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
4/15
4
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Another failed breakout.
USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our secondtrigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in
the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing,
watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-
cycle. We note that this cycle would be negated on a push under 76.25.
To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
5/15
5
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Remains trapped in the crossfire.
USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge,after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor beak over
wedge resistance.
Movements in USD/CHF are being driven by the return to weakness seenin EUR/CHF due to the widening of periphery government bond spreads
versus bunds. This now warns of a return to, and potential break of,
wedge resistance.
We look for a break back over 0.8551 before initiating longs, with a bias inthe interim for a possible re-test of weekly wedge support, currently at
0.8085.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8551.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
6/15
6
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Unwinding from oversold conditions.
USD/CAD has unwound from oversold conditions, amidst key support near0.9550. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates
expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915
(38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).
Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by afailed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.
Indeed the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2%Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and
1.0000 (parity level).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).
USD/CAD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
7/15
7
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.
AUD/USDs reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is stillweighed down by a DeMark exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak.
Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator has also flaggedexhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime,
our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock
extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar,after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair
is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this
level.
The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, aftertriggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back
lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a
potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in
the financial community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3: 1.0630, Obj: 1.0390/1.0205/0.9700. Stop: 1.0780
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
8/15
8
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Next targets daily channel support.
GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 riseseen earlier in the year.
This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure
that we had previously expected.
Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been in place for the lastthree months.
A lower high is now potentially in place at 130.85 for a continuation ofnear-term weakness.
The recent push back under 128.17 suggests a return to the daily channelsupport currently at 124.60.
With this in mind a lower high is now sought.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
9/15
9
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Further weakness anticipated while below 113.50.
EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at105.44 after reaching 123.33 and then failing to hold over 116.00.
Recent trade has seen a break under the platform near 113.42/50, whichalso constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.
The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallowretrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This is
however dependent on the perception of risk as partially dictated by
periphery spreads versus bunds.
We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 weekmoving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again.
Although further losses are anticipated we are maintaining our stop on ourfinal short unit at 115.70 to protect a portion of the profit already
generated.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 115.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
10/15
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
11/15
11
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.
EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in differenttimeframes. All of these were negated with the push under 1.1806.
Given the continued uncertainty regarding periphery spreads versusbunds, we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable.
With this in mind we next target 1.1550 and then potentially lower towards1.1000.
The close link between movements in EUR/CHF and periphery spreadsversus bunds makes this pair a prime candidate for sharp moves as new
information regarding events in the periphery becomes available.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
12/15
12
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Unwinding recent weakness within a volatile range.
Now above 1553.65 (06 June high), refocusing on the all-time high at1577.57. Only a close above there would confirm a resumption of the
major uptrend into the next psychological glass-ceiling at 1600.00.
The larger corrective move on Gold in US dollar terms, remains pressuredby a weekly DeMark exhaustion signal, which was followed by a bearish
engulfing reversal from a multi-year bull-channel.
Failure to sustain the break over 1553.65 will target 1474.69 (38.2% Fib)and 1442.92 (50% Fib), with overshoot risk into 1422.30/1411.13 (200-day
MA/61.8% Fib).
It is also worth continuing to monitor Golds COT liquidity readings whichis weakening back into a key structural level. Keep in mind that a sustained
break of this area would threaten 1.5 years of sizeable long gold positions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GOLD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
13/15
13
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.com
Resistance around 38.80 caps.
Silver remains capped beneath resistance around 38.80 and continues tofavour a resumption lower. (Note, the prior correction had fallen just over
30% in only 5 days, which may have signalled a peak in global risk
appetite).
We continue to look for potential moves into 32.3479/32.3125 (38.2% Fib-1999 bull market/12th May swing low), offering a downside extension into
31.7819 (24th Feb low) and 30.0000 (old psychological level).
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
Bulls need to push back above 38.8475 (26th May high), then 39.4825(11th May high), in order to revive a promising recovery into 40.0000 (old
psychological level).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await signal.
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
14/15
-
8/6/2019 2011 07 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
15/15
15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 July, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
http://www.migbank.com/http://www.migbank.com/