2011 11 03 migbank daily technical analysis report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3950 Lowered to 1.3140 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.3840GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740USD/JPY LONG 3 78.20 80.05/82.00/83.30 (Entered 01/11/2011) 76.50USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.9015 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250 0.9130USD/CAD LONG 3 1.0050 1.0270/1.0660/1.0850 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0090AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0570GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30EUR/JPY Await fresh signal, with a mild bearish bias.EUR/GBP Look to sell.EUR/CHF Possibly looking to sell for a break under 1.2000.GOLD SHORT 3 1710 1600/1530/1300 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1760SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT03 November, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mo re profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Sharp reversal targets 1.3000.
Lowered Objective to 1.3140. EUR/USD has extended its sharp reversal
from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The
dramatic move has confirmed the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had
anticipated, which had been driven by recent positive EU News.
Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18th Oct low). A sustained
confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146
(Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.
Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro
currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now
falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.
Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day
MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent
spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely
remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic
oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.
MIG Bank US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1.3950, Objs: Lowered to 1.3140, Stop: 1.3840
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE
TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARKBUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.73)
DEMARKBUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
6 MONTHHIGH
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf -
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A further leg higher is favoured, towards 1.6167.
A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy
below from the report.
GBP/USD has seen a break back under the key low at 1.5890, thus scope is
seen for further short-term weakness towards our target zone near 1.5840,
where a higher low is favoured to form.
We remain wary of the general range bound nature of this market in the
medium-term and note that short-term structure is suggestive of further
gains, back towards 1.6167.
While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region
fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative
again.
GBP/USD has already experienced a large devaluation versus the US
Dollar, therefore any strengthening in the US Dollar may not see the full
participation of GBP/USD. Instead GBP/USD is favoured to remain stronger
than most.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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USD/JPY intervention favours test of 80.00.
USD/JPYs latest intervention by the BOJ favours a test of that all-important
psychological level at 80.00. This marks the BOJs third time to officially
intervene on the rate this year, after it carved out yet another new post WWIIrecord low at 75.35.
Multiple DeMark buy signals were also triggered within the multi-week base
pattern which has now broken higher (as had been expected by our low
volatility measures).
The medium/long-term view is more bullish, favouring a sustained move
above our initial upside trigger level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ
intervention II high).
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within
the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of
the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.
Please select the link below to sign up for our MIG Bank Part 2 webinar on USD/JPY.
This will feature an update to our previousSpecial Report
USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change (Thursday, November 03rd 16:00-16:45 GMT).
- What do long-term cycles tell us about the future of USD-JPY?
- How do event shocks and Central B ank Interventions impact the market?
- Safe-Haven Flows: A wave of change.
- High-Probability Trading Strategies.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
LONG 3 at 78.20, Obj: 80.05/82.00/83.30, Stop: 76.50
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
83.30
USD/JPY(Daily
1 YEAR)
QUAKE
SHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
82.00
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AFTERNEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNBREAKOUT
TARGET(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=25d5c6f4-3d8e-4519-8025-f641af50aaf9http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=25d5c6f4-3d8e-4519-8025-f641af50aaf9mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=25d5c6f4-3d8e-4519-8025-f641af50aaf9http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdf -
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Resistance expected close to 61.8% retrace.
Long position stopped for profit at 0.8800. Look to sell.
USD/CHF continues to edge higher after meeting the stop profit level at
0.8800. Scope is still seen for a further rise to test the 61.8% retrace of the0.9316-0.8568 fall, near 0.9000. However, a lower high would be favoured
to form in that region for a fresh resumption lower.
Potential is seen for a re-test of the region close to 0.8242 ahead of a
possible return to 0.9316. However, should EUR/CHF reach the 1.2000
level again, then movement in USD/CHF may be effected by the efforts of
the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is required
to change the medium-term bullish bias.
A push back over 0.9083 will immediately open up a return towards therecent high at 0.9316.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.9015, Objs: 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250, Stop: 0.9130.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bulls reverse higher from psychological 1.0000 level.
Raised stop above breakeven to 1.0090, thereby locking in profits and
ensuring a risk-free trade.
USD/CADs short-term price activity has turned positive, with the sharp
bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).
Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the
potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at
1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).
Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the
long-term 200-day MA at 0.9813 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).
A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month
trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),
which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1275,
following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).
The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
LONG 3: 1.0050, Objs:1.0270/1.0660/1.0850, Stop: 1.0090Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High(1.0673)
200-DMA
(0.9815)
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENS LARGERRECOVERY
DEMARKBUY SIGNAL
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50%(1.3570)
61.8%(1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.3833)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA1.1875
50%
(1.1488)
61.8%(1.0893)
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Sharp setbacks weigh.
Achieved PT1 and lowered stop to breakeven, thereby locking in profits and
ensuring a risk free trade.
AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered
from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
the 200-day MA (1.0411).
A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
rates multi-year uptrend.
The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26th Oct low) and 1.0188 (18th
Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.
The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.
The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now
trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.
Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th Oct low). A break here
will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0570
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD(Weekly)
38.2%
(0.9144)
50%(0.8546)
61.8%(0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARKSELLSIGNALS
200-DMA(1.0411)
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(83.12)
13
38.2%(76.70)
61.8%(68.47)
50%(72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARKSELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
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Support expected close to the platform near 122.38/65.
GBP/JPY has entered into a period of consolidation following the
intervention by the BOJ in USD/JPY at the start of the week. This has led to
a breach above the key 123.31 level, which now warns of a much larger
corrective phase higher. However, given the nature of the upside surge, a
return to the 122.65 region is favoured ahead of further strength.
Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily
structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to
negate this positive structure.
Assuming that further short-term strength can be realised, a lower high
would be anticipated close to 129.00, near the 200 day moving average
which is currently at 128.85. Thus the region between 129.00 and 130.00
would be attractive for renewed short positioning. In the meantime, a higher
low may form close to the old 122.38/65 ceiling, with a short-term swing
back into the 129.00-130.00 region in mind.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Possible symmetric correction complete at 111.60.
EUR/JPY has seen a significant break higher out of a falling channel,
leaving a false break lower at 100.76, in the daily timeframe. However, we
also note that the rise to 111.60 may eqaute to the completion of a
symmetric correction from 100.76, thus warning of a return to weakness.
Further price action needs to be monitored to try to determine a near-term
bias, with the current stance being neutral.
Should the region near 112.50 be met a lower high would be favoured to
form in that region, close to the 200 day moving average, currently at
112.62.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook
bullish. In the meantime a mild bearish bias remains in place.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal, with a mild bearish bias.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Break under 0.8530/31 favoured.
EUR/GBP saw a push back under 0.8670 in recent trade which now likely
leaves a lower high at 0.8831, very close to the region in which we expected
weakness to manifest, near the old double top at 0.8886/85.
The bias remains mildly bearish, although trade location remains poor with a
return back towards 0.8831 still possible, which would offer better trade
location. Alternatively, we await a clear break under the 0.8530/31 double
bottom to realise a breakout from the 0.8530-0.8886 trading range, with this
being our favoured scenario.
Also a break under 0.8530/31 will likely end the general range bound trade
that we have witnessed thus far, with scope then for a return back down to
0.8068 over time. In fact, should stresses in the Euro Zone intensify then it
is possible that Sterling may gain safe haven status.
A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a
generally rangebound environment.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Look to sell.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Weakness favoured to test 1.1973.
EUR/CHF continues to edge lower with scope now for a re-test of 1.2100.
Provided weakness continues in the Italian government bond market it is
anticipated that a move back towards 1.2024 could be realised. Failure to
hold within the confines of the earlier hourly rising channel also warns of a
return towards the key high near 1.1973, close to the 1.2000 floor in
EUR/CHF.
Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also
following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075,
increasing the probability of a return to this level.
This brings back into focus the 1.2500 1.3000 zone where resistance was
always anticipated. Also noted is the failure to maintain trade above the 200
day moving average.
Focus still remains on the Italian government bond market, with 10 year
yields there maintaining the break over 6%. Time will tell whether or not the
SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs
that may occur if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian
government bonds.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Possibly looking to sell for a break back under 1.2000.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Risk of a larger decline beneath $1530.
Gold remains bearish after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm
the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators). This
also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.
Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions.
In price terms, Golds latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the
largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metals
long-term bull market in 1999.
There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has notbeen breached in 3 years!
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still
offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1710, Obj: 1600/1530/1300, Stop: 1760
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530
UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf -
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Key support at $26.0700.
Silvers latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment
community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time
silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.
The move was triggered following a DeMark exhaustion sell signal and
has now wiped out almost 50% of silvers prior gains (taken from Silvers all-
time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed
buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL SIGNAL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 67%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARKSELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.5125)
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
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14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
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