2011 11 10 migbank daily technical analysis report
TRANSCRIPT
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.3655 1.3140/1.2860 (Entered 09/11/2011) 1.3655
GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740
USD/JPY Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF Short stopped. Possibly looking to re-sell.
USD/CAD LONG 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0050
AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470
GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30
EUR/JPY SHORT 2 106.45 104.00/100.76 (Entered 09/11/2011) 106.45
EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8555 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 0.8655
EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230
GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT10 November, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.
First objective met, stop moved to entry.
EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance
(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed
the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been
driven by recent positive EU News.
Yesterday’s break under 1.3653 (18th
Oct low) unlocks further downside
scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level
at 1.3000.
Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro
currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now
falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.
Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day
MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent
spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely
remain strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic
oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.3655, Objs: 1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3655.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA (1.4104)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE
TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.72)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
6 MONTHHIGH
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Approaches a region of potential support.
A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy
below from the report.
GBP/USD failed to break over the recent high at 1.6167, maintaining our
structural argument that the rise from 1.5877 is a corrective. Scope is now
seen for a break back under 1.5877 ahead of a possible higher low versus
1.5632 for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167.
Medium term structure is dominated by a generally range bound
environment, with a return to the highs of the annual range possible, near
1.6618/1.6747. Our bias remains positive due to the near-term bullish
structure that is in place.
While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this regionfails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative
again.
Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should that the US Dollar
enter into a strengthening phase.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.
USD/JPY is edging lower, with the probability now favouring another price
retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially even a new post
world war record low beneath 75.35.
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try
and be the first to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders.
The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
pints to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within
the ending diagonal pattern, which is part of the long-term cycle.
Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY.
This is a featured update to our previous Special Report
USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
83.30
USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)
QUAKE
SHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
82.00
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW 75.35
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNBREAKOUT
TARGET (85-79)
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Rise from 0.8568 still viewed as corrective.
Short stopped at 0.9130.
USD/CHF has met 0.9151 thus far, leading to our short position being
stopped. This may have completed a symmetrical correction from the low at
0.8568. We now wait to see if the 0.9151 low can contain price on the
upside. Also, if a break under 0.8923 can be realised then this would
increase the probability of a return to weakness.
While below 0.9316, medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the
zone close to 0.8242, ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However,
should EUR/CHF reach the 1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF
may be affected by the efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF.
Back under 0.7712 is required to change the medium-term bullish bias.
Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian
government bond yields push higher despite last week’s ECB rate cut. See
our EUR/CHF page for more on this.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short stopped. Possibly looking to re-sell for a return to 0.8242.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.
USD/CAD’s short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp
bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).
Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the
potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at
1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).
Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the
long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31st
Aug low).
A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-monthtrading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),
which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,
following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).
The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENS LARGERRECOVERY
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High(1.0673)
200-DMA(0.9817)
200-DMA(1.3841)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.1314)
50%
(1.1488)
61.8% (1.0893)
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Sharp setbacks weigh.
AUD/USD’s sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered
from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
the 200-day MA (1.0415).
A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
rate’s multi-year uptrend.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.
The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.
The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now
trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.
Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th Oct low). A break here
will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(83.12)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8%
(68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2%
(0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
200-DMA(1.0413)
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Approaches a region where support is anticipated.
GBP/JPY is approaching a region where a degree of support would be
anticipated, just ahead of the 122.38/65 platform. Should a fall down to
these levels be realised, this would also potentially complete the corrective
structure that has been witnessed since 127.32.
In the very short-term it appears that a possible exhaustion pattern may be
forming, although a final swing lower towards 123.00 remains viable.
Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily
structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to
negate this positive structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breakout realised targeting 104.00 initially.
First objective met, stop moved to entry.
EUR/JPY formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and has
subsequently broken under 106.50. This now triggers the bearish flag thatwe had seen in the daily timeframe, warning of further losses towards
104.00 and possibly lower.
Trade is currently finding some interim support close to the 61.8% retrace of
the 100.76 – 111.60 rise, where scope is seen for a possible shallow retrace
to form.
Structure present since 108.25 also suggests scope for a further leg lower
back towards 100.76 if a sustained break under 104.75 can be achieved.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook
bullish.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2 at 106.45, Objs:104.00/100.76, Stop: 106.45
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Breaks under long-term trend-line support.
EUR/GBP has seen a break under long-term trend-line support from 0.8068.
In doing so we have now broken under the recent range, breaking the old
double bottom at 0.8530/31. Assuming that the break can be held, this now
warns of a larger fall to target 0.8285/0.8068. Such a move will be assisted
by the perception of Sterling as a safe haven, assuming the yields of Italian
government bonds can stay elevated.
A rise higher is now anticipated in the short term to re-test the old floor as a
possible ceiling.
In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the
outlook once again. In the meantime a lower high is sought for a further
extension lower.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Continued resistance expected close to 1.2500.
EUR/CHF has remained strong particularly in light of the movement in
Italian government bond markets, where a minor inversion in the yield curve
is beginning to form, with 5 year yields trading above 10 year yields, at the
time of writing. Also, as mentioned before, it highlights the inability of the
ECB to contain sovereign debt yields by simply lowering the base rate. This
may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure
returning to EUR/CHF.
Initial resistance has been seen close to the recent high at 1.2474, with
scope for a further correction, towards 1.2300 initially. Should a re-test of
the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this
would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the
probability of a return to this level.
In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the
1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week
moving average is also noted.
Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible
flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet
higher yields in Italian government bonds.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Breaking above $1760 is positive for the short-term.
Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm
the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This
also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.
However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher above key
level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into 1844.
Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a
key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions.
There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not
been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still
offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530
UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
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Key support at $26.0700.
Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment
community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time
silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.
The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and
has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all-
time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed
buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 67% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.5125)
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MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGALTERMS
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 10 November, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]