20110325 wageningen
TRANSCRIPT
Knowledge network for System Innovations
and transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)
Transition to a sustainable society: challenging but cumbersome
Jan RotmansJan Rotmans
Wageningen, 25-03-2011Wageningen, 25-03-2011
twitter.com/jan_rotmanstwitter.com/jan_rotmans
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Current society is
far from sustainable
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Persistent problems
• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems
• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply,
water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care
• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted
in our societal structuresin our societal structures
• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvement
is not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems
transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed
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Persistency of mobility system
• congestioncongestion10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams
• victimsvictims 41.000 victims per year in Europe41.000 victims per year in Europe
• space usespace use75% increase over the last 30 years75% increase over the last 30 years
• pollutionpollution 30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport
• noisenoise 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution
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20 - 30 years
Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase
20 – 30 years
Breakthrough to sustainable society
”
Widespread application
of new paradigms
Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages
Tipp
ing
Poin
t
Battle between old and
new paradigm
Build up and decay
of institutions
energy
Time
We are here
Consolidatiion
transport
fisheries
health care
agriculture
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crisis from transition perspective
three levels of assessment:three levels of assessment:
1. financial and banking crisis1. financial and banking crisis
financial supervision and regulationfinancial supervision and regulation
2. relations market, government and society2. relations market, government and society
limited market forces, role of government and citizenslimited market forces, role of government and citizens
3. virtues, norms and values3. virtues, norms and values
new economic ordering in light of energy and climate crisisnew economic ordering in light of energy and climate crisis
moral crisis: window of opportunity moral crisis: window of opportunity
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crisis from transition perspective
current crisis is a systems crisiscurrent crisis is a systems crisis
financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisisfinancial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis
energy crisis and climate crisis yet to comeenergy crisis and climate crisis yet to come
systems crisis is deeply rooted insystems crisis is deeply rooted in
production & consumption exhaustion of natural res. production & consumption exhaustion of natural res.
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Sustainability Transitions
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fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in
societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system
• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure infrastructure (market, consumption, production), (market, consumption, production), institutionsinstitutions
(rules, regulations, collective (rules, regulations, collective actors)actors)
• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective
(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (defining
problems and solutions)problems and solutions)
• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,
implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken
down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up
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Examples of transitions
internetfrom physical to virtual
water transition from stemming water to accomodating water
energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply
health care transition from bureaucratic health care to human care
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Transition to Sustainable Society
quest to new values
from to
welfare happiness
exploitation cooperation
linear cyclical
central decentral
hierarchy networks
individuals communities
directing facilitating
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Transition = Power shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at a smaller scale level
niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might
take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend
its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime
transition = regime-shift = power shift
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Global Power Struggle
Obama
“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy-
economy will become the country that will dominate
the world economy and America must be that country ”
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Sustainable Trends
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Clean Tech sustainable energy biobased chemical industrysustainable water technologysustainable waste disposal
fastest growing industry in the world (10-15% per year)
China 35 billion $ in Clean Tech in 2009 VS 18 billion, $ Silicon Valley turns into Clean Tech
Valley GB 11 billion $ Netherlands 100 million $….
green revolution unfolding
Global Sustainable Dynamics
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Global Sustainable Dynamics
current worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $
sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, recycling, services
sustainable energy: 20 million new jobs sustainable biomass: 15 million new jobs sustainable construction: 10 million new jobs
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Glocalisation
ca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlands
thousands of sustainability frontrunners:
sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashion
hundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainability
ca. 300 plans for local energy cooperations
bubbling undercurrent
Local Sustainable Dynamics
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Glocalisation
decentral becomes thé trend
energy but also food, water, waste, care
becomes co-determinant for spatial planning
society goest faster than politics can handle
companies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods
politics needs to facilitate this dynamics
Local Sustainable Dynamics
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Governing Transitions
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Transition governance
rules of thumbrules of thumb
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance
• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)
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Transition Managementprinciplesprinciples
- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack
- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces
- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways
- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments
- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments
searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting
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Transition Management Cycle
vision, pathways,transition
agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring
learning
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society
Transition arenasRegular policy arena
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
The transition arena
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Sustainability Vision
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Stichting Urgenda
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
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drijvende wijk/stad
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Floating City
water recreation
ecology:wetlands
technology: floating foundation
energy: decentral heat/cold storage
mobility: floating
highway, water taxi
living / working units
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Transition Agenda for the Netherlands
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Transition Agenda
investing in sustainable innovation
investing in strategic niches
built environmentsustainable energybiobased economyelectric mobility
facilitating role of the government
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Transition Agenda
revival of the manufacturing industry
climate adaptation / sustainability
floating cities, green chemistry, C2C-buildings
regional innovation campus
learning, practising, bussiness enterprises
sustainability factory in Dordrecht
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Built Environment
built environment energy neutral in 2025
all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral
inspiration
transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965
entire Dutch housing stock was provided with
gas connection for heating and cooking
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Built Environment
energy neutral through:
1. shell of building as energy efficient as possiblegood isolation and and efficient installations
2. producing sustainable energysolar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat
3. surface area developmentenergy, water, fine dust particles / NOx
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Sustainable = Value Creation
making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to:
- economy [employment]
- construction sector
- value of real estate
- environment
- society
- citizens and housing corporations
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Thus…
technically it is possible in 15 years
financially it is feasible
how can we get this organized?
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Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role
butbut
• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role
• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role
- creating innovation space for frontrunnerscreating innovation space for frontrunners- removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation- developing coalitions around breakthrough projectsdeveloping coalitions around breakthrough projects
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Conclusions
• sustainability transition is long-term, intricate processsustainability transition is long-term, intricate process
requires a change in structure, culture, practicesrequires a change in structure, culture, practices
• transition is a battlefield where power shift occurstransition is a battlefield where power shift occurs
battle between niches and regimebattle between niches and regime
• we are in the midst of ‘tipping point’ periodwe are in the midst of ‘tipping point’ period
crises, chaos, turbulencecrises, chaos, turbulence
• the Netherlands needs a transition agendathe Netherlands needs a transition agenda
investments in sustainable innovation niches investments in sustainable innovation niches
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Thank you!
twitter.com/jan_rotmans