Climate Change Adaptation Assessment in the Agriculture

SectorAn International Perspective

Awareness-Raising and Consultation WorkshopTashkent, Uzbekistan

19-May-2010

Peter DroogersFutureWater

Wageningen

Netherlands

IPCC projections

IPCC projections (annual)

Temperature and precipitation changes from the MMD-A1B simulations. Annual mean temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models.

IPCC Precipitation (monthly)

DJF JJA

IPCC Precipitation (monthly)

Number of models, out of 21, that project increases in precipitation.

Probability

“The Art of Predicting Climate Variability and Change”, Bart van den Hurk and Daniela Jacob (2009)

Why Quantitative Tools

IPCC recommendations for water resources managers

Source: “Managing Water under current climate variability” Eelco van Beek (2009, adapted from IPCC (2001, Table 4–13))

Adaptation vs. Mitigation

Time in Years

Net

Ben

efits

of A

dap

tation

and M

itig

atio

n

Adaptation Mitigation

Time in Years

Net

Ben

efits

of A

dap

tation

and M

itig

atio

n

Adaptation Mitigation

Which Quantitative Tool

Quantitative analysis

Understand current water resources

Understand past water resources

Options for future- technical- socio-economic- policy oriented

Trend

Past

Today

Future

•Remote Sensing•Observations•Analysis •Statistics

•Models?Alter

Number of Models?

??

Which model?

Physical detaillowhigh

Sp

atia

l sca

le

field

system

basin

continentPodium

STREAM

SLURP

WSBM

SWAT

WEAP

IQQM

SWAP

AquaCrop

Number of Satellites?

??

Remote Sensing

Pixel size (resolution)

250m - 1 km 5 km30 m

Frequency

30 min.

1 Day

Twoweeks

AVHRR / MODIS

GOES/METEOSAT

Landsat / ASTER

180 km

2500 km

1 to 4 m

Ikonos

11 km

Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration

Global Studies

Climate change vs. Population change

Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:

Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

Climate change vs. Population change

Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:

Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

Climate change vs. Population change

Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:

Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

Climate change vs. Population change

• Population change: gradual

• Climate change: extremes

Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources:

Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.

Field Scale Studies

Comparing field scale adaptation in contrasting basins

• Impact and Adaptation in 7 contrasting basins

• Representative fields• Simulation model

SWAP• Various adaptation

strategies

Deep groundwater

Surface runoff

Transpiration

Evaporation

PrecipitationIrrigation

Unsaturatedzone

Saturatedzone

Drainage/subsurface infiltration

Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity

Transport:- water- heat- solutes

Deep groundwaterDeep groundwater

Surface runoffSurface runoff

TranspirationTranspiration

EvaporationEvaporation

PrecipitationPrecipitationIrrigationIrrigation

Unsaturatedzone

Saturatedzone

Unsaturatedzone

Saturatedzone

Drainage/subsurface infiltration

Drainage/subsurface infiltration

Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity

Transport:- water- heat- solutes

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Changes in Yield (%)

2010-20392070-2099

Zay_Wheat

Zay_Rice

Wal_Vege

Wal_Rice

Vol_Maize

Vol-Rice

Syr_Wheat

Syr_Cotton

Sac_Tomato

Sac_Rice

Rhi_Wheat

Rhi_SugB

Mek_Maize

Mek_Rice

Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Changes in Variation (%)

2010-20392070-2099

Zay_Wheat

Zay_Rice

Wal_Vege

Wal_Rice

Vol_Maize

Vol-Rice

Syr_Wheat

Syr_Cotton

Sac_Tomato

Sac_Rice

Rhi_Wheat

Rhi_SugB

Mek_Maize

Mek_Rice

Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Changes in Consumption (%)

2010-20392070-2099

Zay_Wheat

Zay_Rice

Wal_Vege

Wal_Rice

Vol_Maize

Vol-Rice

Syr_Wheat

Syr_Cotton

Sac_Tomato

Sac_Rice

Rhi_Wheat

Rhi_SugB

Mek_Maize

Mek_Rice

Source: Aerts and Droogers, 2003. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins, Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment

Basin-Field Scale Analysis

Relevance

• Crop growth and climate change– Changes in rainfall

– Changes in temperature

– Changes in reference evapotranspiration

– Changes in CO2

• Analysis using WEAP– Water availability (including variation)

• Analsyis using AquaCrop– Current situation

– Impact

– Adaptation

• no irrigation

• less irrigation

• 3 crops

• …..

Basin-Field scale combined

Physical detaillowhigh

Sp

atia

l sca

le

field

system

basin

continent

WEAP

AquaCrop

AquaCrop

• Main processes

AquaCrop

• User-friendly Interface

Typical Output

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

01/0

1/20

00

01/0

2/20

00

01/0

3/20

00

01/0

4/20

00

01/0

5/20

00

01/0

6/20

00

01/0

7/20

00

01/0

8/20

00

01/0

9/20

00

01/1

0/20

00

01/1

1/20

00

01/1

2/20

00

Ru

no

ff, d

arai

nag

e, E

T (

mm

/d)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Irri

gat

ion

(m

m/d

)

Irr

Runoff

Drain

ET

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

01/0

1/20

00

01/0

2/20

00

01/0

3/20

00

01/0

4/20

00

01/0

5/20

00

01/0

6/20

00

01/0

7/20

00

01/0

8/20

00

01/0

9/20

00

01/1

0/20

00

01/1

1/20

00

01/1

2/20

00

Bio

mas

s, y

ield

(to

n/h

a)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Wat

er s

tres

s (%

)

Biomassa

Yield

Stress

Summary Results

• Impact of Climate Change

Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724

Summary Results

• More rainfall in 2050:– no irrigation???

• Substantial reduction in yield

Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724

Summary Results

• More rainfall in 2050:– less irrigation???

• Almost no impact on yield

Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724

Summary Results

• Three crops in one year?• Increase in yield• Operational farm management should improve

Current CC CC no irr CC red irr 3-crops Crop Yield total (ton/ha) 13.4 18.2 9.3 18.1 19.3 Irrigation (mm/year) 1200 1200 0 150 1170 Precipitation (mm/year) 1507 1855 1855 1855 1855 ET (mm/year) 1663 1754 1703 1703 1724

WEAP analysis

WEAP

WEAP

WEAP output

•Estimate flood depth for a recurrence time of 5 years

Concluding remarks

• Adaptation climate changes:– Increase in extremes– Uncertainty

• Quantitative tools:– Models– Remote sensing

• Scale issues:– Basin: water availability and variability – Field: crop yields

• Issues not covered:– Salinity– Economics– ….

Thank You