20120611-toepfer internationalmb may

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Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH Ferdinandstrasse 5 20095 Hamburg Germany

P. O. Box 106120 20042 Hamburg phone +49 40 3013-0 fax +49 40 3013-634

e-mail: market [email protected] www.toepfer.com

MARKET REVIEW MAY 2012

Grain 2Oilseeds/Oilmeals 2Other Feedstuffs 3Fertilizers 3Germany 3CONCERNING AGRICULTURAL POLICY:

The International Grain Market in the 2012/13

Marketing Year 4

Table 1: World Crop Production 10Table 2: Wheat Trade 11

Table 3: Corn Trade 11

Table 4: Barley Trade 11

Table 5: Soybean Trade 11

Table 6: Rapeseed Trade 11

Table 7: EU-27 Grain Production 12

Table 8: EU-27 Oilseed Production 13

Table 9: EU-27 Export and Import Commitments 14


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Market Review May 24, 2012

2

Grain

EU Wheat: The Matif November contract oscillated

between 195 and 205 in May. European millingwheat is competitive on the international market

which should limit the downward potential of the

prices. However, there is still a reluctance to sell on

part of the farmers and no real demand is coming

from the destinations. Feed wheat is difficult to

market on a CIF basis as maize is 5 to 7 /t cheap-

er. Nevertheless, we expect prices to remain stable.

EU Maize: After the USDA released its latest re-

port, also the prices in Europe have lost 6-7 /t. At

present they linger at this level, partly supported by

the weak Euro. We expect the markets to remain

volatile in the next few weeks, depending on reports

about weather and growing conditions in the major

growing regions and Chinas import demand.

EU Malting Barley: The crops have developed well

in all regions. Area-wide rainfall in almost all relevant

growing regions put a stop to the discussions about

possible dryness concerns that had just started and

shifted the focus of attention towards the below-

average temperatures recorded in recent weeks.

The price level is closely related to the develop-ments on the feed grain market. Market participants

react with reluctance, concluded sales are execut-

ed quickly. In France, farmers are more ready to

sell than in Germany and Scandinavia.

International Malting Barley: China is still buying

Australian barley and is expected to have covered

its demand shortly before the new harvest begins in

Australia. In Argentina, seeding has started under

favourable conditions. Also in Canada, growing

conditions have been good so far, but prices there

still have to adjust to the international level.

EU Feed Barley: Trading in the EU meanwhile fo-

cusses on the new harvest. After a significant price

rise on the futures market the farmers willingness

to sell grew but the barley prices followed only partly

those quoted at the exchanges. The current EU

price level continues to be not competitive for any

export business to non-EU countries.

Oilseeds/Oilmeals

Soybeans: The supply situation in the USA is tight

with regard not only to the old crop but also to the

new harvest. This was confirmed by the USDA re-

port. Only if yields turn out to be very good, US end-

ing stocks can reach the 145 mln bu predicted by

the USDA for 2012/13. The fact that a large harvest

is needed will impact the market in the next months

and weather and growing conditions will keep prices

volatile. Only very few export offers are still coming

from Brazil. The farmers willingness to sell contin-

ued to be good, supported also by the weak Real. In

Argentina, farmers are still hesitant to sell their soy-

beans but the supply from Uruguay weakens the

premiums in Argentina. Crush margins are good in

Brazil, Argentina, the USA and Europe. In China, the

demand for soybean meal is low as the pig fatteningsector declined because of poor margins. Due to

seasonal factors also the demand for soyoil is lower

so that the margins of the oilseed crushers are poor

as well.

Sunseed Meal: Business activities have decreased

significantly. In general, coverage is good and only

very sporadic demand has been noted for nearby

positions. In contrast to this, suppliers in the Black

Sea region have already made good sales and con-

tinue to be reluctant to make FOB offers. Some

more sunseed meal is offered on basis CIF by trad-

ers.

Rapeseed Meal for nearby positions continues to

be scarce, depending on the parity. In the past

weeks, prices showed large fluctuations of up to 20

/t. At the end of April they reached a new record

level but they could not fully establish themselves as

the quotations for oilseeds at the Matif and in Chica-

go were lower. The oil mills reduced their productionas crush margins are still not covering costs. Occa-

sionally, buyers must still cover their demand with


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old-crop goods. Some more demand is noted for delivery in August/October.

Other Feedstuffs

Oilcakes: Prices for palm expellers have slightlydecreased in May, while nearby positions continue

to be traded at a premium compared to those for

delivery in summer and autumn. Due to low interna-

tional milk prices buyers show reluctance to make

purchases for deferred positions. In the first quarter

of 2012, the demand in the Pacific region was at the

same level as in the same quarter of last year.

Beet Pulp Pellets: Prices have risen again. Old-

crop goods are almost completely sold out and

processors have already made good sales out of

the new campaign. Prices in the Mediterranean

have slightly come under pressure due to the im-

port ban imposed by Morocco on Egyptian goods.

Citrus Pulp Pellets: All goods out of the last ship-

ments from Florida are sold out and it will take at

least three to four months until first goods from

Brazil will arrive in Europe.Corn By-Products: According to the latest news,

an EU approval for the maize event MlR 162 can be

expected at the end of this year at the earliest.

However, there seem to take place some occa-

sional small shipments of corn by-products to Eu-

rope.

Molasses: Smaller contracts are being concluded

for beet molasses for delivery up to the beginning of

the new campaign. Some interest has already been

noted for new-crop goods but the compound feed

producers remain reluctant to enter into any con-

tracts.

Glycerine: The business continues to be affected

by the very tight supply situation for May and June.

Prices for delivery until the end of this year remain

firm.

Fertilizers

Urea: In the first half of May, prices remained firm,

while in mid-May they showed a distinct downward

trend. India was able to buy 690,000 t at a price of

535 USD/t CFR which was significantly below the

expected price level. The fact that an additional

500,000 t were offered at 535 USD/t but not pur-

chased, paved the way for the weakening of the

market. Another reason for this trend is the de-

crease in the buying interest from the USA, com-

pared to the past few weeks when the demand

from the USA had been the main price driving force.

In Europe, the demand for larger additional quanti-

ties did not materialize to the extent anticipated and

only some very small lots are being purchased for

the new campaign.

Phosphate: Prices continue to remain firm. Apart

from India, also Turkey has bought 100,000 t DAP

in the past month to compensate for the lack in de-

liveries from Tunisia. There was also continuous

good demand from the USA.

Germany

The German Federal Statistics Office released a

summary on the size of this years winterkill dam-

age in Germany, according to which 360,000 ha

out of the 3.23 mln ha planted with winter wheat

have been ploughed up. This leaves 2.87 mln t for

this years harvest. Also the winter barley acreageis reduced to 1.08 mln ha from the initial 1.24 mln

ha. The rye acreage of 670.000 ha had not suffered

from winterkill and also the rapeseed was hardly

affected and only less than 1% of the area had been

ploughed up. The areas ploughed up have mainly

been reseeded with spring wheat and spring barley

as well as maize, with spring wheat accounting for

193,000 ha (previous year 68,000 ha), spring barley

for 545,000 (420,000) ha and maize for grain for529,000 (488,000) ha. In addition, the silage maize

acreage has been further expanded by about 6% to

2.15 (2.03) mln ha. In most of Germanys western


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regions, sufficient rainfall was noted in recent

weeks, whereas the eastern growing regions are

still too dry. While the hard frosts have left their

marks on the winter crops, the spring crops have

developed quite well and quickly up to now. In manyparts of Germany, the rapeseed crop is infested by

the fungal disease botrytis but the exact extent of

the effects this may have on the yields is not yet

predictable.

From July 2011 until March 2012, grain exports

reached 6.6 mln t and remained thus below the

11.1 mln t exported in the same period of the previ-

ous season. 4.1 (6.8) mln t thereof went to other EU

countries and 2.5 (4.3) mln t to non-EU countries.

The exports of wheat accounted for 3.8 (6.3) mln t,

those of wheat flour for 364,000 (513,000) t, of bar-

ley for 914,000 (2.1 mln) t, of rye for 151,000

(259,000) t and of malt for 293,000 (303,000) t.

6.5 (8.1) mln t of grain were imported in the same

period, thereof 6.2 (7.6) mln t from other EU coun-

tries and 325,000 (485,000) t from non-EU coun-

tries. The total included 3.1 (4.0) mln t of wheat,

999,000 (1.1 mln) t of barley, 183,000 (232,000) t of

oats, 205,000 (186,000) t of malt, 1.3 (1.5) mln t ofmaize and 239,000 (215,000) t of rye.

From July 2011 until January 2012, compound

feed production amounted to 13.5 mln t. This is

an increase by 2% compared to the 13.3 mln t rec-

orded in the same period one year earlier. 3.9 (3.8)

mln t of cattle feed were produced as well as 3.4(3.3) mln t of poultry feed and 5.8 (5.7) mln t of pig

feed. The share of grain in compound feed re-

mained stable with 46.4 (46.4)%. 3.1 (2.8) mln t of

wheat were used for the production of compound

feed as well as 399,000 (507,000) t of rye, 1.3 (1.4)

mln t of barley, 1.2 mln (952,000) t of maize for

grain and 331,000 (416,000) t of triticale. Other in-

gredients were: 1.9 (1.8) mln t of soybean meal, 1.3

(1.3) mln t of rapeseed meal, 228,000 (201,000) t of

cornglutenfeed, 10,000 (11,000) t of feed peas,

17,000 (34,000) t of citrus pellets and 432,000

(438,000) t of beet pulp pellets.

From July until December 2011, 5.5 mln t of

oilseeds were crushed compared to 5.6 mln t in

the same period of the previous year. This included

3.8 (3.9) mln t of rapeseed and 1.7 (1.7) mln t of

other oilseeds and resulted in an oilmeal production

of 3.4 (3.5) mln t including 2.1 (2.2) mln t of rape-

seed meal and 1.3 (1.3) mln t of other oilmeals.

CONCERNING AGRICULTURAL POLICY:

The International Grain Market in the 2012/13 Marketing Year

It is still not clear to what extent the very good

weather conditions to date in North Americas corn

growing areas as well as the frost and dry condi-

tions in some countries in Europe will affect the

harvests. On 10 May 2012, the US Department ofAgriculture (USDA) published its first grain and

oilseed supply and demand estimate for the

2012/13 marketing year. This report summarises

the forecasts contained in the estimate. The main

focus is on the harvest outlook for the aforemen-

tioned regions and whether global grain production

will be able to cover global usage.

For the 2012/13 marketing year, the USDA esti-

mates global grain production (not including rice) at

a new record level of just under 1.91 bln t. This

would mean a global increase in production of 70

mln t compared to the 1.84 bln t of the previous

year. One reason for this is the anticipated increase

in the harvested acreage to 541 (previous year: 533)

mln ha. However, average global grain yields are

also expected to rise to 3.52 (3.44) t/ha, driven by asignificantly higher expected yield for corn produc-

tion in the USA. For the first time since the 2009/10

marketing year, global grain production is expected

to exceed usage again, thus ensuring a slight in-

crease in stocks. The USDA estimates stocks at the

end of the 2012/13 marketing year at 373 (358) mln

t. The stocks to usage ratio would rise slightly to

19.7 (19.5)%.

As in this marketing year, indications for the coming

marketing year are also that there will be widely dif-

fering developments in the supply and demand situ-


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ation for the individual types of grain. Global wheat

production is expected to fall to 678 (695) mln t due

to last winters poor weather conditions in Europe.

This is facing an expected usage of around 687

(694) mln t. The amount of wheat used in feed isexpected to fall by around 10% to 134 (148) mln t,

after rising by an estimated 30 mln t to a new rec-

ord high this marketing year due to the corn and

barley shortage. In spite of the decline in usage,

global ending stocks would fall to 188 (197) mln t.

This results in a stocks to usage ratio of 27.4

(28.4)%, which is still a comfortable level and is

above the average for the last 10 years.

For six of the eight main wheat-exporting coun-

tries, the USDA is expecting a reduced harvest in

comparison to the previous year. Only in the USA

and Canada is production expected to rise. The

wheat acreage in the USA was greatly increased

for the 2012 harvest. This is mainly because plant-

ing conditions this year are excellent in the spring

wheat regions in the North (particularly North Dako-

ta and South Dakota), which were affected by

floods last year. Yield prospects are also currentlymuch better than a year ago. With the exception of

the southernmost winter wheat regions, Oklahoma

and Texas, the soil is well supplied with moisture

just about everywhere and the wheat is in good

condition. According to the USDA, the harvest is

expected to increase to 61.1 (54.4) mln t. Including

the high beginning stocks of 20.9 mln t and average

imports of around 3 mln t, the USA would have

around 85 mln t available for domestic usage and

export - the second highest level in the last 10

years. Consequently, the expected increase in ex-

ports to 31.3 (27.9) mln t does not seem unrealistic

and would still result in comfortable ending stocks

of a good 20 mln t at the end of the coming season.

The harvest outlook in Canada is currently as good

as in the USA. Canada is also reported to have

significantly increased its planted area. The current

production estimate is 27.0 (25.3) mln t. Exports

are expected to rise to 18.5 (17.3) mln t.

In contrast to North America, the production outlook

for Europe is much worse. In the north west of the

EU predominantly in eastern France, central and

eastern Germany and western Poland the cold

snap at the start of February led to considerable

winterkill. It is estimated that 6% of the winter wheat

acreage was ploughed up in France, a good 10% in

Germany and more than 20% in Poland. In return,the spring wheat acreage has greatly increased but

this will in no way fully make up for the lost acreag-

es, because when deciding what to plant, farmers

have mainly chosen spring barley and to a lesser

extent also corn, sunflowers or oats. According to

the USDA, the wheat acreage (including durum) for

this years harvest in the EU is expected to fall ac-

cordingly to 24.9 (25.6) mln ha the lowest level

since 2007/08. The potential yield is also expected

to have suffered from frost. The damage, which is

mainly seen in a poor tillering of the plants, is ex-

pected to be irreparable in some places. Apart from

the effects of the cold snap, weather conditions in

large parts of the EU were still very good in April and

May and should have a positive effect on current

crop development. Particularly in the United King-

dom and north-west France, where there has been

no winterkill worth mentioning, the current harvest

outlook is excellent. Even in Spain, where it wasunusually dry until the start of April, the rain of recent

weeks has had a positive effect on crop growth,

meaning that extreme harvest losses could be

avoided. The USDA estimates the EU wheat harvest

(including durum) at 132.0 (137.4) mln t. This would

correspond to a common wheat harvest of approx.

124.0 (129.4) mln t and would cause wheat to be in

short supply in the EU. A reduction in the amount of

wheat used in feed to 54.5 mln t from the very high

level of 57.5 mln t this marketing year and a further

reduction in exports to 14.5 (16.5) mln t therefore

seem unavoidable. Under these conditions, ending

stocks within the EU would only be at 12.0 (13.3)

mln t.

In Ukraine, winter crops have suffered greatly from

last winters frosts, too. Firstly, the development of

many plants in the southeast of the country was

very poor due to extremely dry conditions last au-tumn. Secondly, precisely these regions did not

benefit from a protective covering of snow. It is to be

assumed that winterkill will have affected between

1.5 and 1.8 mln ha of winter wheat or that the wheat


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will not have developed at all due to the dry condi-

tions in autumn. Spring wheat has not played a

significant role in farmers considerations about

what to plant in the ploughed acreages. The USDA

is consequently estimating the wheat acreage to beharvested at 5.3 (6.7) mln ha. Production is esti-

mated at only 13.5 (22.1) mln t. Exports are ex-

pected barely to exceed the 4.0 (5.0) mln t mark.

With regard to further market development, Russia

is expected to play a key role again in the next few

weeks. In large parts of Russias southern region,

which is important for exports, it has been unusual-

ly dry and warm since the start of April. The winter

crops are now in the crucial crop development

phase in these areas. It is hard to judge to what

extent the weather conditions of recent weeks have

already affected the yield potential. However, rain-

fall is urgently needed in the next few weeks to sta-

bilise the yield potential. The USDA is not yet ex-

pecting any significant fall in production in Russia;

the current harvest estimate is 56.0 (56.2) mln t.

This would then facilitate a large export programme

of at least 18.0 (21.0) mln t. In Kazakhstan, grainproduction is based exclusively on spring crops. As

there has been more rain in recent weeks, planting

conditions are adequate. However, a repeat of last

years record yields cannot be assumed. Conse-

quently, the USDAs current production estimate is

15.0 (22.7) mln t, which would then allow relatively

large export volumes of 8.5 (10.5) mln t due to high

stock levels.

No unusual developments in the buying behaviour

of most of the major importing countries are ex-

pected this year. Just the usual increase in imports

is expected due to growth in population and in-

come. Nevertheless, Moroccos demand for im-

ports is expected to be very high due to a poor har-

vest. Its harvest outlook is greatly dependent on

rainfall in February and March, which was largely

absent this year. Consequently, production is also

expected to be poor at 3.2 (5.8) mln t. Imports areexpected to rise to 5.0 (3.2) mln t. It is uncertain

whether France, as this regions traditional trading

partner, will be able to greatly benefit from this. Ul-

timately, the export potential of France and the EU

will probably be very limited.

Based on the very good weather conditions so far in

the USA, the USDA is currently assuming that there

will be a considerable rise in global corn productionto 946 (870) mln t. Demand is also expected to rise

and reach 921 (868) mln t. One of the reasons for

this is that corn is expected to partially replace

wheat in feed. The amount of corn used in feed is

expected to rise by 42 mln t to 550 mln t. In total,

production would greatly exceed demand however,

resulting in an increase in global ending stocks on

the corn market to 152 (128) mln t. This would cor-

respond to an ending stocks to usage ratio of

16.5%, which would be a more comfortable figure

than the 14.7% indicated for both 2010/11 and

2011/12.

In the USA, by far the worlds biggest corn exporter,

weather conditions for the planting and early devel-

opment of corn were recently excellent. Planting

could start unusually early and was already 96%

complete on 21 May. At the same time last year, it

was only 75% complete (five-year average: 81%).Early planting supports crop development for three

reasons. Firstly, it allows a longer period of devel-

opment. Secondly, the most important phase for

crop development does not fall completely in the

hottest months of the year (July/August), but starts

slightly earlier in some parts. Thirdly, there is less

risk of the corn being affected by early frosts in

northern regions towards the end of its develop-

ment; frosts are not unusual in these regions at the

start or in the middle of September. At the same

time, soil temperatures were unusually high very

early and this also has a positive effect on potential

yield in the early stage of crop development. Added

to this, the corn acreage, at 95.9 mln acres (38.8

mln ha), is the biggest since USDA estimates began

in 1960. This means conditions could hardly be bet-

ter for a very big harvest. Consequently, the USDAs

yield forecasts are also high at 166 (previous year:

147) bushels/acre or 10.42 (9.24) t/ha. However,whether this yield and the resultant production vol-

ume of 14.8 (12.4) bln bushels or 376 (314) mln t

can actually be achieved will largely depend on the

weather conditions in July and August. In the last


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two years, dry conditions and extremely high tem-

peratures in the summer had a significant adverse

effect on yields. If the USDA forecast proves to be

true, there would be a considerable increase in

ending stocks to 1.9 (0.9) bln bushels or 48 (22)mln t, despite an expected rise in exports and high-

er domestic usage in feed. The ending stocks to

usage ratio in the USA would again achieve a com-

fortable level at 15.8 (7.8)%.

In spite of further increases in usage mandates,

corn usage for ethanol production is not expected

to increase this marketing year either, and is esti-

mated by the USDA at the same figure of 5.0 bln

bushels (128 mln t) like in 2011/12. One reason for

the stagnation is a regulation allowing the oil indus-

try in the USA to handle part of the blending obliga-

tion in a flexible way. For example, in 2011, when

processing margins were still very good due to the

Blenders Tax Credit, which was still in existence at

that time, more ethanol was blended than was

specified in the mandate. By contrast, in 2012,

when the Blenders Tax Credit no longer applies,

companies can blend less than required. Anotherreason is that the USAs ethanol exports to Brazil

are very high in the current 2011/12 marketing year.

The reason for this is a very poor sugar cane har-

vest in Brazil and a resultant ethanol shortage.

2012/13 is expected to see a slight reduction in

ethanol exports, which will be reflected in less corn

being used by US ethanol producers.

In addition to the potentially large export surplus

from the USA, the USDA is of the opinion that Bra-

zil will have a large export potential. The harvest of

the corn acreages, which were planted early, is

already complete in Brazil. The corn acreages,

which were not tilled until after the soybean har-

vest, will not be harvested until June or July and are

currently very well developed in many regions.

Consequently, the USDA is currently estimating a

corn harvest of 67.0 (57.4) mln t. If this estimate

turns out to be true, Brazil could export 11.5 (8.4)mln t of corn in 2011/12, which would be the se-

cond highest level of all time. This would at least

compensate for some of the production losses in

Argentina, where, according to the USDA, produc-

tion will only reach 21.5 (23.6) mln t and exports will

fall to 13.5 (16.3) mln t. The outlook for the harvest in

spring 2013 cannot yet be estimated. Planting will

not start until autumn. In its very preliminary esti-

mate, the USDA is assuming another harvest of67.0 mln t in Brazil and 25.0 mln t in Argentina.

Ukraine is becoming ever more important on the

world corn market. For this marketing year, the

USDA is already expecting exports of 14.0 mln t.

This is, after all, just under a third of the USAs ex-

port volume. Another increase in acreage is ex-

pected to be recorded for the forthcoming harvest.

Firstly, corn is highly competitive in crop rotation by

Ukrainian farmers. Secondly, corn should benefit

from the extremely high winterkill rates experienced

by winter grain and rapeseed. Consequently, for the

forthcoming harvest, the USDA is expecting a corn

acreage of 4.5 mln ha, just under 1 mln ha more

than in the previous year; this is, however, slightly on

the high side when compared to the opinion of some

other market observers. The USDAs production

estimate is 24.0 (22.8) mln t. All in all, it is likely that

exports will be at the same level as this year. Thismeans Ukraine could again be an important grain

supplier to the EU due to the production losses ex-

pected there.

At present, it is still difficult to say what the level of

corn production will be in the EU. However, in the

main planting areas in the southeast of the EU,

acreages are expected to continue to increase and

this means that, at 9.1 mln ha, the acreage across

the EU for the forthcoming harvest will again be

more than in the previous year (8.7 mln ha). This, in

turn, means that production of around 63 (64.6) mln

t seems perfectly feasible, even if there will be no

repeat of the previous years record yields.

Another increasingly important factor on the world

corn market seems to be the import demand of

China. For years, market observers have been dis-

cussing when China will start to import larger vol-umes of corn. This marketing year, it will happen for

the first time. In recent months, the USDA reported

larger export volumes from the USA to China on

several occasions. The estimate for Chinese im-


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ports this marketing year is, therefore, 5.0 mln t. In

2012/13, it is expected to be 7.0 mln t. It is ex-

tremely difficult to assess this forecast and further

developments in the next few years. To do this,

there would have to be certainty about the actualharvest yields in recent years and the approximate

stock level. So far, there have been considerable

differences between the USDA estimates, official

data from the Chinese government and estimates

by private analysts. For the forthcoming harvest,

the USDA states a production figure of 193.0

(191.8) mln t.

The supply situation on the barley market is ex-

pected to remain tight in the 2012/13 marketing

year. The USDA currently estimates global produc-

tion at 135 (134) mln t. It is true that this is the se-

cond consecutive rise in production but this would

still be the third lowest harvest in the last ten years.

At the same time, global usage will rise to 136

(135) mln t and will again be higher than produc-

tion, meaning ending stocks will fall to 21 (22) mln

t. The ratio of stocks to usage would then fall to

15.7 (16.3)%, making it the third lowest ratio of thelast 15 years.

At the same time, regional developments differ

greatly. In the EU, barley production could experi-

ence a revival in the forthcoming harvest. Admitted-

ly, winterkill rates were also extremely high for win-

ter barley. There is talk of around 12% in France,

about 13% in Germany and a good 20% in Poland.

Due to the increased planted area, however, the

harvested acreage is not expected to decrease any

further in the EU and should remain at a low level,

after steadily decreasing all the time in recent

years. The spring barley acreage will increase sig-

nificantly as it has benefited from the high winterkill

rates for winter grains like no other type of spring

grain. According to information from the French

Ministry of Agriculture, planting of spring barley is

supposed to increase from 491,000 ha in 2012 to

866,000 ha this year. The German Statistical Officeestimates an increase for Germany of 120,000 ha

to around 540,000 ha,and Poland is also expected

to record a significant increase. The Strategie

Grains firm of analysts currently estimates the EU

barley harvest at 52.7 (51.6) mln t, of which 31.3

(28.3) mln t relates to spring barley and 21.5 (23.3)

mln t to winter barley. The USDA is assuming an

increase in the barley harvest of a good 2 mln t to

53.6 mln t. Both estimates relating to productionincreases seem to be very low in view of the good

weather conditions at present. Definite information in

this respect will, however, not be available for at

least 2 months. Based on the USDAs production

estimate and usage in feed remaining about the

same, exports cannot exceed this years level of

2.5-3.0 mln t because if they did, ending stocks

would fall to a minimum of just 4.5 (5.3) mln t.

In addition to the developments on the wheat and

corn markets, the price level for barley will also de-

pend on whether Saudi Arabias annual import re-

quirements of around 7.0 mln t can be largely cov-

ered by other countries. In 2010/11, this was not the

case because of the drought in the Black Sea re-

gion, with the result that the EU ultimately exported

unusually high volumes and had to reduce barley

usage in feed mixtures. However, the outlook is bet-

ter in the run-up to the 2012 harvest. According tothe USDA, the 5 biggest exporters on the global

market, not including the EU, are expected to be

able to export almost 1 mln t less than in 2011/12,

but around 3 mln t more than in 2010/11. For Rus-

sia, the USDA is assuming production of 16.5 mln t,

thus around the same amount as last year. Exports

are still expected to achieve an average level at 2.2

(3.1) mln t. However, the impact of the recent dry

conditions and further weather developments re-

mains to be seen. In Ukraine, barley production is

expected to fall to 7.5 (9.1) mln t but exports are

expected to reach almost the level attained this

marketing year at 2.5 (2.8) mln t. In 2012/13, Argen-

tina could become the worlds biggest barley export-

er. Production is expected to increase again, as

farmers are increasingly changing from growing

wheat to growing barley because of the Argentinean

governments restrictive wheat export policy; barley

is not yet subject to any export regulations. Accord-ing to the USDA, production this November and De-

cember is expected to amount to 5.4 (4.0) mln t,

which would allow exports of 4.0 (3.0) mln t. Cana-


9/14


9

das exports are estimated at 1.3 (1.2) mln t and

Australias exports are estimated at 3.8 (4.5) mln t.

Price developments in the next few weeks will

greatly depend on weather conditions in Europe,including the Black Sea region, and in the USA. A

continuation of the excellent weather conditions in

the USA and a resultant record corn harvest would

somewhat ease the global supply situation and

would certainly exert pressure on grain prices

worldwide. This is all the more true as the Chicago

Board of Trade, which is the leading exchange for

the worldwide agricultural industry, is greatly influ-

enced by developments on the US market. Howev-

er, before corn in the USA starts its most important

phase of development in July and August, attention

will also be on Europe. The focus will particularly be

on weather conditions in southern Russia and

Ukraine. The supply situation in the EU will probably

continue to be tight in the 2012/13 marketing year,with the result that imports from third countries will

still be urgently needed. If weather conditions stabi-

lise in the Black Sea region, these imports can be

easily obtained from Russia and/or Ukraine again. In

the case of corn, in particular, very high levels of

imports are expected from Ukraine.

With Compliments,

ALFRED C. TOEPFER INTERNATIONAL GMBH


10/14


2012/13** 2011/12* 2010/11 2012/13** 2011/12* 2010/11

WORLD TOTAL GRAIN (incl. Rice)*** 2,372.1 2,300.4 2,197.1 700.4 692.2 679.2

USA 456.8 384.0 397.9 60.8 56.5 57.3

Canada 50.8 47.1 45.4 14.9 13.3 12.9

Argentina 48.6 45.4 48.9 10.3 11.2 10.4

Australia 39.3 43.4 40.2 19.2 20.0 19.1

China 461.0 457.1 435.6 90.6 89.8 88.7

India 236.4 232.2 220.2 101.0 100.3 98.8

Russia 84.6 88.1 61.5 44.0 43.5 39.1

Ukraine 42.7 48.8 37.6 13.6 14.1 13.9

EU-27 283.5 286.4 276.2 57.0 56.2 56.4

WORLD WHEAT (Jul/Jun)*** 677.6 694.6 651.1 221.2 221.7 218.3

USA 61.1 54.4 60.1 19.9 18.5 19.3

Canada 26.1 25.3 23.2 9.3 8.5 8.3

Argentina 12.0 14.5 16.1 4.0 5.0 4.6

Australia 26.0 29.5 27.9 13.5 14.1 13.6

China 120.0 117.9 115.2 24.3 24.2 24.3

India 91.0 86.9 80.8 29.8 29.4 28.5

FSU-12 97.8 114.4 81.1 48.9 49.9 46.9

Russia 51.7 56.2 41.5 27.2 26.9 25.0Ukraine 13.2 20.7 16.8 4.9 6.7 6.3

Kazakhstan 14.9 19.7 9.7 13.6 13.8 12.3

EU-27 133.0 138.0 136.9 25.3 25.6 26.1

WORLD CORN (Sep/Aug)*** 945.8 870.5 829.1 174.5 168.9 162.6

USA 375.7 313.9 316.2 36.1 34.0 33.0

Argentina 25.0 21.5 23.6 3.4 3.6 3.5

Brazil 67.0 67.0 57.4 15.8 15.7 13.8

China 193.0 191.8 177.2 34.0 33.4 32.5

South Africa 13.0 11.5 10.9 3.2 3.2 2.9

Ukraine 20.1 18.7 11.2 4.0 3.1 2.6

EU-27 62.8 65.1 55.1 9.2 8.9 8.1

WORLD BARLEY (Jul/Jun)*** 135.4 133.7 122.9 51.1 49.8 47.6

USA 4.4 3.4 3.9 1.2 0.9 1.0

Canada 9.0 7.8 7.6 2.9 2.4 2.4

Australia 8.0 8.5 8.1 3.8 4.0 3.7Russia 17.3 16.7 8.8 9.3 9.2 7.3

Ukraine 8.0 8.2 8.5 3.9 3.6 4.3

EU-27 56.0 51.8 52.9 12.8 12.0 12.3

WORLD RICE (Milled) (Jan/Dec)*** 466.4 463.3 449.3 159.8 158.9 157.7

USA 5.8 5.9 7.6 1.0 1.1 1.5

China 141.0 140.5 137.0 30.2 30.0 29.9

India 102.5 103.4 96.0 44.0 44.1 42.9

Indonesia 36.9 36.3 35.5 12.2 12.1 12.1

WORLD TOTAL OILSEEDS*** 471.5 437.3 456.5 220.4 216.9 213.8

WORLD SOYBEANS (Sep/Aug)*** 271.4 236.9 264.7 106.5 102.4 102.9

USA 87.2 83.2 90.6 29.5 29.8 31.0

Argentina 55.0 42.5 49.0 19.7 17.8 18.3

Brazil 78.0 65.0 75.5 26.5 25.0 24.2

China 13.1 13.5 15.1 7.5 7.7 8.5

India 11.4 11.0 9.8 10.8 10.3 9.3

WORLD RAPESEED (Jul/Jun)*** 60.4 60.4 60.6 33.2 33.1 33.6

Canada 15.4 14.2 12.8 8.1 7.5 6.5

Australia 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.1

China 8.7 9.0 9.9 5.8 6.0 6.5

India 6.1 7.1 6.2 6.3 7.3 6.5

EU-27 18.1 18.9 20.3 6.0 6.6 6.9

Ukraine 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

WORLD SUNSEED (Sep/Aug)*** 38.9 39.1 33.3 26.2 25.7 23.2

Argentina 4.0 3.4 3.7 2.0 1.8 1.7

Russia 9.2 9.5 5.5 7.4 7.2 5.9

Ukraine 9.1 8.9 8.0 5.1 4.7 4.5EU-27 8.1 8.4 6.8 4.2 4.2 3.7

Sources: USDA, Stats. Canada, ABARE, own Estimates * Estimate ** Forecast *** as USDA

10

Table 1: World Crop Production

Production (mln tons) Area (mln ha)


11/14

2012/13 2011/12 2012/13 2011/12WORLD 137.0 146.7 WORLD 104.2 97.0

EXPORTERS EXPORTERS

USA 31.3 27.9 USA 48.3 43.2

Canada 18.5 17.3 Argentina 16.0 13.5

Argentina 6.5 9.8 Brazil 12.0 11.5

Australia 20.5 22.0 China 0.2 0.2

Russia 18.0 21.0 South Africa 2.0 1.5

Ukraine 4.0 5.0 Ukraine 14.0 14.0

Kazakhstan 8.5 10.5

EU-27 14.5 16.5

IMPORTERS IMPORTERS

Brazil 6.7 7.3 Mexico 9.3 10.5

Mexico 4.1 4.8 Colombia 3.7 3.7

South Korea 4.1 5.4 Egypt 5.2 5.0

Japan 5.9 6.4 Iran 3.5 3.6

Philippines 3.2 3.6 South Korea 8.5 7.5

Indonesia 7.1 6.7 Japan 16.0 15.5

Iraq 3.7 3.7 Taiwan 4.3 4.2

Egypt 10.0 10.5 EU-27 6.0 5.0

Morocco 5.0 3.2

Algeria 5.2 6.1

Nigeria 3.9 3.9

EU-27 5.5 7.5

Source: USDA Source: USDA

2012/13 2011/12WORLD 17.1 18.7

EXPORTERS

USA 0.2 0.2

Canada 1.3 1.2

Australia 3.8 4.5

Russia 2.2 3.1

Ukraine 2.5 2.8

EU-27 2.4 2.8

IMPORTERS

Brazil 0.4 0.4

China 2.2 2.0

Japan 1.3 1.3

Jordan 0.5 0.7

Saudi Arabia 7.0 7.5

Iran 0.3 0.9

Syria 0.3 0.5

Israel 0.5 0.4

Libya 0.2 0.2

Tunesia 0.2 0.2

Source: USDA

2012/13 2011/12 2012/13 2011/12WORLD 97.3 89.0 WORLD 12.0 12.0

EXPORTERS EXPORTERS

USA 41.0 35.8 Canada 8.4 8.4

Argentina 10.1 8.5 Australia 2.4 2.2

Brazil 34.2 35.7 EU-27 0.1 0.1

Paraguay 5.1 3.1 Ukraine 0.8 1.1

IMPORTERS IMPORTERS

Mexico 3.5 3.4 USA 0.7 0.8

China 61.0 56.0 Mexico 1.6 1.6

Japan 2.8 2.7 China 2.1 1.8

South Korea 1.2 1.1 Japan 2.3 2.4

Taiwan 2.5 2.3 Pakistan 0.9 0.8

Thailand 2.0 2.0 UAE 0.8 0.8

Indonesia 2.1 2.0 EU-27 2.9 3.0

EU-27 11.0 11.0

Source: USDA Source: USDA


11

Table 2: WHEAT TRADE (mln t) Table 3: CORN TRADE (mln t)

Table 5: SOYBEAN TRADE (mln t) Table 6: RAPESEED TRADE (mln t)

Table 4: BARLEY TRADE (mln t)


12/14

2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011

EU-27 124,909 129,945 8,136 8,007 55,992 51,770 32,761 28,365 62,832 65,107 7,970 6,957 7,650 7,957 9,884 10,500 4,151 4,201 281,525 284,444

EU-15 93,381 95,039 7,681 7,554 45,501 41,748 25,972 22,112 38,548 39,601 4,623 3,864 5,358 5,533 5,040 5,030 557 598 200,689 198,968

Germany 21,490 22,709 83 73 9,701 8,734 2,671 2,058 5,184 5,228 3,432 2,521 668 627 2,035 2,010 0 0 42,593 41,901

France 34,006 34,022 1,932 1,967 11,336 8,849 5,369 2,473 15,327 15,756 134 128 374 352 2,115 1,985 286 278 65,510 63,336

Italy 3,291 2,730 3,835 3,627 1,155 946 0 0 8,964 9,350 10 8 300 266 109 105 229 279 17,893 17,311

Netherlands 1,359 1,360 0 0 218 208 183 174 304 293 10 10 10 9 17 16 0 0 1,917 1,895

Belgium/Lux. 1,809 1,837 0 0 464 412 67 52 837 810 15 15 30 34 58 63 0 0 3,214 3,171

U.K. 15,760 15,257 0 0 5,533 5,641 3,190 3,399 0 0 43 41 604 624 60 62 0 0 22,000 21,624

Ireland 913 919 0 0 1,251 1,243 969 962 0 0 0 0 163 166 0 0 0 0 2,327 2,327

Denmark 4,745 4,833 0 0 3,765 3,250 3,081 2,527 62 55 328 294 198 225 125 138 0 0 9,223 8,795

Greece 324 324 900 850 265 248 0 0 1,377 1,326 35 35 92 98 0 0 5 5 2,998 2,885

Spain 4,876 5,955 856 945 7,832 8,329 6,948 7,151 3,780 4,108 242 367 938 1,078 177 205 36 36 18,736 21,022

Portugal 58 54 12 15 53 58 53 58 632 621 18 22 65 68 19 31 0 0 857 868

Austria 1,552 1,704 63 78 788 859 348 372 2,080 2,054 172 202 99 110 215 228 0 0 4,968 5,235

Sweden 2,299 2,356 0 0 1,417 1,453 1,370 1,368 0 0 131 145 666 775 111 189 0 0 4,624 4,918

Finland 900 981 0 0 1,725 1,520 1,725 1,520 0 0 52 78 1,152 1,101 0 0 0 0 3,829 3,680

EU-12 31,528 34,906 455 453 10,491 10,022 6,789 6,253 24,284 25,506 3,347 3,093 2,292 2,424 4,844 5,470 3,595 3,603 80,837 85,476

Poland 7,380 9,338 0 0 3,853 3,333 3,150 2,475 2,196 2,359 2,806 2,625 1,299 1,378 3,752 4,420 3,369 3,372 24,654 26,825

Czech Republic 4,212 4,795 200 198 1,755 1,871 1,232 1,364 906 870 111 117 149 167 181 204 56 57 7,569 8,279

Slovakia 1,428 1,607 86 86 502 537 432 475 1,323 1,365 40 43 34 39 31 35 28 30 3,471 3,742

Hungary 4,439 4,041 56 56 981 971 297 301 8,253 8,089 84 75 138 134 388 370 13 15 14,350 13,750

Estonia 345 360 0 0 289 294 286 291 0 0 38 31 70 62 15 14 6 10 763 770

Latvia 1,101 950 0 0 211 227 211 227 0 0 104 64 110 121 30 21 35 29 1,590 1,412

Lithuania 2,035 1,870 0 0 722 759 688 753 56 72 110 85 127 129 325 273 36 38 3,410 3,225

Slovenia 158 154 0 0 84 83 6 6 296 340 3 3 5 5 11 15 0 0 558 600

Cyprus 0 0 8 8 56 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 58Malta 0 0 9 9 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12

Romania 6,365 7,215 10 9 1,286 1,197 430 330 9,585 10,400 35 37 323 347 113 118 53 54 17,768 19,376

Bulgaria 4,066 4,576 87 87 751 698 58 32 1,669 2,012 16 13 39 42 0 0 0 0 6,628 7,428

Source: ACTI * Estimates ** Sorghum, Mixed Grains


12

Table 7: EU-27 GRAIN PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t)

WHEAT DURUM BARLEY CORN RYE OATS OTHERS**TRITICALEspring

Barley

TOTAL

GRAINS(excl. Durum) (Total)


13/14

2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011 2012* 2011

EU-27 18,098 18,947 8,095 8,432 1,353 1,256 27,545 28,635

EU-15 13,518 13,280 3,268 3,559 1,140 1,029 17,926 17,868

Germany 4,603 3,899 68 60 0 0 4,671 3,959

France 5,219 5,360 1,925 1,934 116 121 7,260 7,414

Italy 54 55 353 344 945 828 1,352 1,227

Netherlands 15 14 0 0 0 0 15 14

Belgium/Lux. 46 42 0 0 0 0 46 42

U.K. 2,609 2,778 0 0 0 0 2,609 2,778

Ireland 20 20 0 0 0 0 20 20

Denmark 356 501 0 0 0 0 356 501

Greece 6 6 26 25 0 0 32 31Spain 51 59 798 1,097 2 2 851 1,159

Portugal 0 0 21 22 0 0 21 22

Austria 172 161 77 78 77 78 326 318

Sweden 260 266 0 0 0 0 260 266

Finland 107 120 0 0 0 0 107 120

EU-12 4,580 5,667 4,826 4,873 213 227 9,620 10,767

Poland 1,680 1,865 5 5 0 0 1,685 1,870

Czech Republic 1,019 1,077 66 72 5 5 1,090 1,154

Slovakia 315 355 200 222 21 19 536 596

Hungary 333 536 1,387 1,385 82 73 1,802 1,993

Estonia 149 144 0 0 0 0 149 144

Latvia 211 176 0 0 0 0 211 176

Lithuania 441 352 0 0 0 0 441 352

Slovenia 9 10 0 0 0 0 9 10

Romania 160 656 1,584 1,625 105 130 1,849 2,411

Bulgaria 264 498 1,584 1,564 0 0 1,848 2,062

Source: ACTI * Estimates


13

Table 8: EU-27 OILSEED PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t)

RAPESEED SUNSEED SOYBEANS TOTAL 3


14/14


Wheat

Wheat flour *

Durum wheat

Semolina *

Barley

Malt *

Corn

Rye

Rye flour *

Oats

Sorghum

Others

TotalSource: EU-Commission * in grain equivalent

ImportExport

(incl. Food Aid)

EU-27

01/07/2010 - 24/05/2011

14

11,769

938

1,141

0

0

0

EU-27

01/07/2011 - 15/05/2012

Export

(incl. Food Aid)

Import

2,709

0

2,668

34

0

130

0

11,94819,389

5,186

10

1,366

0

408

0

4,892

0

0

86

0

0

965 6,380

17,440 2,080

1,158 58

1,754 1,852

0 0

4,360

25,895

97

0

102

19

11,323

Table 9: EU-27 EXPORT AND IMPORT COMMITMENTS (in 1,000 t)

0 794

0 0

0

0

0

159

20120611-toepfer internationalmb may

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