ROLE OF 2015 AGREEMENT FOR ADAPTATIONMichael MULLAN – Environment DirectorateJan CORFEE-MORLOT – Development Co-operation Directorate

Source: Based on Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons

from OECD Countries

2

Progress in adaptation planning from

2006 to 2013 in OECD countries

Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13

respondents

3

Focus on measures that deliver co-

benefits in OECD countries

Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from

OECD Countries

4

Mainstreamed financing of domestic

adaptation amongst OECD countries

• Understanding of resource needs increasing, but patchy

• No systematic collection of data on finance requirements, current

spending or extreme events

1. Common vision: political will and development of institutional structures;

2. Evolutionary approach: focus on current problems, with initial thinking about longer-term vulnerabilities;

3. Evidence to guide “transformational” changes is very limited;

4. Finance and capacity constraints remain major barriers.

5

Emerging findings in national planning

for Non-Annex 1 countries

Source: OECD (2015, forthcoming) – developed from Persson and Klein (2009) 6

1) Conditions for adaptation should be

viewed as an “ecosystem”

• Resonance with political imperatives and constraints• Engagement of external actors

Political commitment

• Identification of key interdependencies• Data presentation aligned to responsibilities• Stakeholder input as a means of raising awareness and building capacity

Institutions and processes

• Making tools easier to use• Providing rich underlying data for more sophisticated analyses

Tools and data

• Making the case for funding adaptation measures• Identifying the scale of contingent liabilities / residual risks

Resources

Climate risk and vulnerability assessments

Indicators for monitoring prioritised climate change risks

and vulnerabilities

Learning from adaptation approaches

National audits and climate expenditure reviews

2) Importance of pragmatism in

measuring success

7

1

2

3

4

• New OECD working papers:

• Methodological challenges

• National approaches

• Based on analysis of the systems used in Germany, UK, Mozambique and Nepal

8

1. Climate and development – two-way relationship: an example

from South East Asia

2. Evolution of climate change adaptation at the international level &

implications for action in developing countries

3. Official Development Assistance to Climate Change Adaptation

4. DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change and Development

Co-operation

PART TWO –

Adaptation, Development and Development Co-operation

• Costly impacts, e.g. in the agricultural sector (figure). Coastal flooding costly

for growing cities, even with significant investment in adaptation

• Air pollution problems threaten health and well-being

• Need to integrate climate, adaptation and disaster risk reduction into land use

and infrastructure planning, align and strengthen local-national responses

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

OECDAmerica

OECDEurope

OECDPacific

Rest ofEurope

and Asia

LatinAmerica

MiddleEast &NorthAfrica

South &South-

East Asia

Sub-Saharan

Africa

World

Fisheries EnergyEcosystems HealthTourism Sea level riseAgriculture GDP

Climate change could have a large impact on GDP in Southeast Asia in 2060

Percent change in GDP compared to baseline (OECD, 2014)

Climate change threatens growth and development:

impacts to vary by region-- a Southeast Asia example

Evolution of adaptation at the international

level: implications for development policy

Slow integration of climate change adaptation into development

planning and policy in developing countries

Mainstreaming in development co-operation practice is mainly

driven by UNFCC-related processes:

• First through National Adaptation Programmes of Action NAPAs (2001)

for LDCs (by 2013 all LDCs had a NAPA);

• Most recently (as of 2010) through National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)

in all developing countries.

Development co-operation and development finance for

adaptation is increasing:

• GEF (Trust Fund, LDCF, SCCF) and soon the GCF (50:50

adaptation/mitigation allocation of finance over time)

• CIFs (e.g. the Strategic Climate Fund provides resources to the Pilot

Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR))

• Bilateral financial support

Official Development Finance to Climate

Change Adaptation

Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014

• Total bilateral and multilateral

adaptation-related finance

reached over USD 14 bn in 2013.

• Total bilateral adaptation-related

aid by DAC members reached

USD 10.8 bn p.a. over 2012-13,

or 7% of bilateral commitments,

about 45% of climate-related

ODA

• For bilateral aid, 70% targets

adaptation as a significant

objective, reflecting

mainstreaming within on-going

development activities

Total adaptation-related finance2010-13, bilateral and multilateral commitments, USD billion,

constant 2012 prices,

annual and 2-year annual average

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010-11 2012-13 2013 (total)

Sh

are

of

tota

l O

DA

co

mm

itm

en

ts

US

D b

illio

n

Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments

Bil

ate

ral

Mu

ltila

tera

l

Adaptation-related bilateral aid is concentrated

in a few sectors and activity types…

Adaptation-related ODA by sector2010-13, bilateral commitments, USD billion, constant 2012 prices

The top 5 sectors receive 86% of adaptation-related development finance.

In 2013, multilaterals focused on General Environment Protection (17%);

agriculture, forestry and fishing (17%); and disaster risk reduction (10%)

General Environmental Protection reflects focus on adaptation planning and

policy formulation, research and education, and capacity-building

Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Water Supply andSanitation

Agriculture, Forestry,Fishing and Rural

Development

GeneralEnvironmental

Protection

Multisector Transport andStorage

Disaster RiskReduction and

Response

Sh

are

of

tota

l O

DA

co

mm

itm

en

ts

US

D b

illio

n

Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments

13

DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change

and Development Co-operation

Since 2006, supports adaptation and development policy

dialogue :

• Sharing experience from policy practice;

• Promoting better adaptation in partner countries (e.g.,

alignment, data collection, monitoring and evaluation);

• Identifying, agreeing and communicating ways to improve

development co-operation for adaptation;

• Producing guidance (e.g., Integrating Climate Change

Adaptation into Development Co-operation, OECD 2009).

Recent work:

• Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Risk Screening &

Assessment Tools for Development – working paper

• Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation: Methodological and

Country Challenges – 2 new working papers

Future (2015-16) work to focus on national-local adaptation

planning and policy linkages, in the context of NAPs:

• Mechanisms to reduce, transfer and share climate risks;

• Climate-resilient urban development in developing countries.

Integrating

Climate Change

Adaptation into

Development

Co-operation

(2009)

THANK YOU!

jan.CORFEE-MORLOT@oecd.org

michael.MULLAN@oecd.org

OECD ENV – Adaptation to Climate Change

www.oecd.org/env/cc/adaptation.htm

OECD DCD Climate Change and Development

www.oecd.org/dac/environment-development/climate-change-development.htm

OECD DAC-CRS - Methods and data on climate change financing

www.oecd.org/dac/stats/rioconventions.htm

ROLE OF DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION

15

BACKGROUND MATERIAL

16

What evidence influenced the

prioritisation of adaptation strategies?

• Expert judgement and involvement of stakeholders are the most widely used techniques for prioritisation

• Limited uptake of cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness tools

2

4

7

3

13

13

Cost-benefit analysis

Cost-effectiveness analysis

Multi-criteria analysis

Uncertainty based approaches

Expert judgement

Stakeholder engagement/consultation

Includes multiple responses

17Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; multiple choice; 13 respondents had undertaken

some form of prioritisation

Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13

respondents

18

Criteria used for prioritisation

Source: survey of OECD countries 19

Priority areas for improving data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

For which sectors is it a priority to improve the evidence base? (multiple choice)

• Setting of baselines should be transparent – e.g., treatment of autonomous adaptation

• Greater emphasis on the social aspects of adaptation

• Identification of poorly-understood, but potentially significant risks– flexibility in the choice of methods for

analysis

Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from

OECD Countries

20

Lessons learned from quantitative

studies to date

3 PRIORITIES FOR SUPPORTING

IMPLEMENTATION

21