FINDING THE MCMANUS’:

GEOSPATIAL DATA IN

WILDERNESS SEARCH &

RESCUE

23 September 2015

Loren Pfau

Alpine rescue Team

Evergreen, CO

OUTLINE

Introduction

Mission Background

Initial Search Days

Cellular Data Analysis

Subsequent Searches

Subjects Found

Lessons Learned

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CCCSO – Clear Creek County Sheriff’s Office

CSRB – Colorado Search and Rescue Board

AFRCC – Air Force Rescue Coordination Center

CAP – Civil Air Patrol

FFL – Flight for Life air ambulance service

MRA – Mountain Rescue Association

ART – Alpine Rescue Team

ML – Mission Leader, designated ART lead for managing search and rescue missions

WiSAR – Wilderness Search and Rescue

MISSION BACKGROUND

Damian and Evan McManus of St. Louis Park, MN

on a late March / early April spring break road

trip through the west

One of the largest, longest-running searches in

CO history

107 days duration

Over 5000 man-hours

Multiple agencies involved

THE START

Family members contact Jefferson County SO on 6

April 2014 to report overdue parties

Subjects’ car located by CCCSO at Echo Lake

parking west of Denver

Alpine call out from CCCSO at approximately 1600

Initial search begins

ECHO LAKE PARKING LOT

MOUNT EVANS AREA

Arapaho National Forest:

724,000 acres

Pike National Forest:

1,107,000 acres

Mount Evans Wilderness:

74,000 acres

MOUNT EVANS AREA

INITIAL SEARCH – DAY 1

Hasty search of trails originating from the parking lot area

Car searched for clues

CSRB engages AFRCC to conduct cellphone data

analysis

Subject’s PC’s examined

Subjects’ belongings from hotel examined

Girlfriend of son interviewed on received last text

message

Planning for next operational period

APRIL 2, 2014 – I-70 WEST OF DENVER

Loveland Pass (11,890’) Weather Data

16 miles WNW of Goliath Peak (12,221’)

April 2 – 7, 2014

start hike

17” HN

@ Echo

Lake

Additional

inches

Weather data: CAIC

Analysis: Dale Atkins

ART

notified

• Snotel station at Echo Lake

recorded 17 inches snowfall

between midnight 2 April and

0800 on 3 April

CLUES

Car search yields receipts indicating subjects had breakfast

in Lakewood, CO the morning of 2 April

Analysis of browsing history of both PC’s found searches on the trail systems around Echo Lake and Mount Evans

Girlfriend interviewed - the last text message from the son on

2 April was “We are going to scale a mountain.”

Subjects had not returned to their hotel to check out on the

date they had indicated; belongings had been put in

storage. No significant findings in belongings

AFRCC contacted and requested to perform forensic

cellphone analyses

AFRCC ENGAGEMENT

At the request of the CCCSO the CSRB asks the

AFRCC to retrieve subjects’ cellphone data from

their carrier

Last cell tower transactions occur in the early evening

of 2 April

Using tower locations transaction distance

estimates the AFRCC uses RF propagation

models to generate likely areas in which

transactions occurred

AFRCC provides ART ML with their

recommendations early in the morning of 7 April

AFRCC CELLPHONE ANALYSIS

AFRCC CELLPHONE ANALYSIS

PRIMARY SEARCH AREA

Location of

Subjects’

Car

Lincoln Lake

Overlook

Pesman

Trail

Mt. Goliath

Idaho

Springs

Reservoir

Avalanche

Path

GOLIATH AREA TRAILS

INITIAL SEARCH DAYS 2 - 4

Day 2: 27 SAR personnel 324 man-hours

Day 3: 51 SAR personnel 670 man-hours

Day 4: 26 SAR personnel 292 man-hours

Air support included the National Guard and Flight for Life

After 4 days of searching the search was terminated on 9 March 2014, one week after the subjects presumably went missing

SEARCH COVERAGE: DAYS 2 - 4

SUBSEQUENT CELL DATA ANALYSIS

Analyzed detailed transaction data collected by

the AFRCC

Not calls or text messages; cell system signaling

data records

Key data elements:

Timestamp

Tower ID

Distance estimates

Developed coverage area viewsheds

Looked at intersections of distance radius as

handsets connected with different towers to

estimate locations

EXAMPLE CELL DATA

Date Time Call Type Cell Site Sector Distance (mi) Type

2-Apr 14:50:29 Data 344 3 20.7 3G

2-Apr 14:48:00 Data 344 3 20.6 3G

2-Apr 14:24:05 Data 343 3 14.2 3G

2-Apr 14:18:06 Data 190 1 9.85 2G

2-Apr 14:17:30 Data 190 1 10.23 2G

2-Apr 14:17:10 Data 190 1 10.23 2G

2-Apr 14:16:49 Data 190 1 10.4 3G

2-Apr 14:15:25 Data 190 1 10 2G

2-Apr 14:09:35 Data 343 3 10.08 2G

2-Apr 13:48:02 Data 193 3 8.6 3G

2-Apr 13:47:32 Data 193 3 7.2 3G

2-Apr 13:46:57 Data 190 1 9.1 3G

2-Apr 13:39:04 Data 190 1 9.3 3G

2-Apr 13:36:51 Data 193 2 7.3 3G

2-Apr 13:36:05 Data 193 2 6.7 3G

2-Apr 13:35:37 Data 344 3 19.8 3G

2-Apr 13:29:36 Data 193 3 10.4 3G

CELL TOWERS AND ESTIMATED

SUBJECT LOCATIONS

FINAL CELL TOWER COVERAGE

• Light Blue is the Tower 249 viewshed • Light Red is the Tower 245 Viewshed• Light Red is the Tower 245 Viewshed

T249 VIEWSHED

Likely coverage area from

Tower 249 (downtown

Evergreen, CO)

Both handsets were

connected to this tower

from 14:54 to 15:54 on 2

April

T245 VIEWSHED

Likely coverage areas from

Tower 245 near Indian Hills

Handset 4235 connected to

this tower, and only this

tower, from 15:57 to 19:31

No tower connections from

either Handset after 19:31

VIEWSHEDS FROM BOTH

Possible area of transition

from Tower 249 to Tower

245

POSSIBLE TIMELINE ALONG HWY 5

Orange and Blue denote

separate handsets

Red sun is a location derived

using both handsets

Both near the second

switchback at 12:02

Furthest distance south by

both noted at 14:17

Up road to near Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

Up road to near Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

TOWER SIGNALING

TRANSACTIONS

• Blue ring is final transaction distance estimate for both handsets with Tower 249 at 15:54

• Red ring is the first transaction distance estimate by Evan’s handset with Tower 245 at 15:57 – this is the only tower reached from this time onward

• Green ring is the final transaction distance with Tower 245 at 19:31

• AFRCC assumes a 1500 foot error either side of the distance rings

1700 feet

ANALYSIS AND LIMITATIONS

The AFRCC and subsequent cell transaction analyses

increase confidence of the likely area where they had

been the afternoon and evening of 2 April

Focus became the face east of the Goliath ridge

The question remained: where did and could they travel

to after the cell transactions ceased?

Due to the weather, darkness, snow, slope and dense tree conditions travel would have been difficult

No comparable lost person behavior statistics match this

particular situation

SUBSEQUENT SEARCHES

Formal and informal searches of the area

3 May search training

10 May formal search employing multiple SAR teams

MANY individual and small group informal search days

Not all tracks captured

Based on the cellphone analysis focus was placed on the

east face of the Goliath ridge

A major search of the area was planned for 20 July

100+ searchers and dog teams

Planned 20 July Search Areas

SUBSEQUENT SEARCHES

Planned 20 July Search Areas

MAY 10 SEARCH

SEARCHED AREAS

Red - April

Yellow - May

Blue - June

Green - July

FOUND

Both subjects located on 17 July 2014

Civilian searchers located Subject 1

Front Range Rescue Dogs / Rocky Mountain Rescue Group

members with search dog located Subject 2

Alpine under the auspices of the CCCSO performed the

recovery operations

SUBJECT’S FOUND LOCATIONS

• Subject 1 was:• 1.2 miles east of the

Nature Center• 0.65 miles east of the

Resthouse TR• 9918 feet in elevation

• Subject 2 was:• 1.47 miles east of the

Nature Center• 0.89 miles east of the

Resthouse TR• 9778 feet in elevation

• Subject 2 was 0.26 miles ENE of Subject 1

Subject 2

Subject 1

Subject 2

Subject 1

SUBJECTS’ LOCATIONS

Subject 2

Subject 1

Subject 2

Subject 1

PLANNED 20 JULY SEARCH

AREAS

Subject 2

Subject 1

Subject 2

Subject 1

POST-RECOVERY ACTIVITIES

CCCSO and the CO Bureau of Investigation were

able to recover photos from one of the subject’s

phones

These photos had EXIf time and date stamps and

geotags so it was possible to plot the subjects’

track throughout the day

SUBJECT PHOTO LOCATIONS

ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL 2 APRIL 14 ROUTE

Estimates from 13 April ML briefing Geocoded photos from recovered iPhone

12:36

1:28

3:21

2:47

3:08

Up road to near Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

Up road, over Goliath toward Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

Up road to near Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

Up road, over Goliath toward Lincoln Lake; then back on Pesman TR

CELL DATA ANALYSIS – COMPARISON OF

CELL SYSTEM DISTANCE ESTIMATES TO GPS

LOCATION ON PHOTOS

Cell System Handset Distance EstimatesPicture Location to

Tower Delta

Time Call Type Cell Site SectorDistance

(mi) Type Picture # TimeMeasured Tower Dist.

Dist. Diff % Diff.

15:20:12 Data 249 3 15.50 3G 829 15:20 15.28 0.22 1.4%

15:10:58 Data 249 3 15.50 3G 826 15:08 15.44 0.06 0.4%

15:03:23 Data 249 3 15.40 3G 822 15:03 15.42 -0.02 -0.1%

15:01:37 Data 249 3 15.80 3G 819 15:00 15.46 0.34 2.2%

14:59:01 Data 249 3 15.20 3G 816 14:59 15.44 -0.24 -1.6%

14:54:42 Data 245 1 18.79 2G 815 14:54 18.88 -0.09 -0.5%

14:54:31 Data 249 3 15.00 2G 814 14:54 15.44 -0.44 -2.8%

14:48:58 Data 249 3 15.60 3G 810 14:49 15.44 0.16 1.0%

14:47:01 Data 249 3 15.40 3G 807 14:46 15.47 -0.07 -0.5%

13:36:05 Data 193 2 6.70 3G 805 13:36 7.04 -0.34 -4.8%

13:35:37 Data 344 3 19.80 3G 802 13:34 20.49 -0.69 -3.4%

13:32:16 Data 249 3 15.30 3G 800 13:02 15.25 0.05 0.3%

13:26:59 Data 193 3 8.90 3G 799 13:27 7.04 1.86 26.4%

13:04:55 Data 190 1 8.50 3G 797 13:05 8.88 -0.38 -4.3%

12:41:37 Data 190 1 8.50 3G 793 12:41 8.56 -0.06 -0.7%

12:35:16 Data 245 1 17.88 2G 791 12:36 17.99 -0.11 -0.6%

10:56:38 Data 194 1 1.20 3G 785 10:57 1.13 0.08 6.7%

TWO VIEWS LOOKING NORTH

FROM NEAR THE UPPER GOLIATH

LOT – SNOW COVER COMPARISON

McManus photo from 2 April Loren Pfau photo from 18 April

SO WHAT HAPPENED?

Even with all the data, we will never know for certain

“Best guess” is they lost the Pesman Trail upon entering the trees, veered downslope and missed the Goliath Nature Center due to some combination of snow cover, darkness, storm

Unanswered questions:

Assuming they lost the trail when it was still light why didn’t they turn back and follow their tracks back out (sunset at 19:25 that day)?

Did they survive the night of the storm and travel on the following day?

No attempts to call for help in call and text logs – phone batteries exhausted?

Classic wilderness travel mistakes:

No third party informed as to where they were going, what they planned to do, when they should be back, and what to do if they were overdue

Unfamiliar with the area – terrain and weather

Not equipped to spend an unplanned night out

WHAT DID WE LEARN?

• Variety of clues and information to employ (though virtually none on the

first few days)

• Physical search of car and belongings

• Analysis of computer browsing history

• Cellphone data adds a new dimension to wilderness SAR – we need

to learn how to capture and analyze it properly

• What tripped us up: the “they couldn’t get very far” mindset

• No snow travel gear

• Assumed inadequate clothing and footwear

• Prior mission 6 weeks earlier 3 miles away

• Field team reports of conditions

• Experience in planning and running large-scale searches using some

new tools – GIS grids, pre-set section markers, assignments before teams

were onsite, raw cell system data analysis

• Get additional opinions from unbiased searchers

THANK YOU!

• lorenpfau@outlook.com

• Alpine Rescue Team – www.alpinerescueteam.org