20160810 motivating cost study - arpa-eacross various fusion power plant designs studies, capital...
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Motivating a Fusion Power Plant Conceptual Cost Study
ScottVitterTechnology-to-MarketSummerScholar
[email protected] |[email protected]
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What– acoststudyforapowerplantbuiltaroundfourreactorconceptsintheALPHAprogram
What, why, and how?
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Why– estimatecapitalcosts,assesssensitivities,influencefollow-onactivities
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What, why, and how?
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How– workwithapowerplantengineeringanddesignfirm,augmentedbyconsultantswithfusionexpertise
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What, why, and how?
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What do we mean when I say cost study?
LevelizedCostofElectricity
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Whatwearedoing
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• DirectCapitalCosts- FusionPowerCores- BalanceofPlant- TritiumExtractionPlant
What do we mean when I say cost study?
Whatwearedoing
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• Non-CapitalCosts(limited)- Operationsandmaintenance- Tritiumhandlingandrecycling- Wastedisposal- Decommissioning
What do we mean when I say cost study?
Whatwearedoing
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• Excluding- Costofcapital/financingcosts- Costofstart-uptritiuminventory- Thermal-to-electricefficiency- Regulatorycosts- Researchanddevelopmentcosts
What do we mean when I say cost study?
Whatwearedoing
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Across various fusion power plant designs studies, capital cost is the largest contributor to total net present value
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FuelO&MIncremental capitalConstruction
Itemto
tal,as%oftotalprojectNPV
1– Woodruff,S.,Miller,R.“CostSensitivityAnalysisfora100MWe modularpowerplantandfusionneutronsource.”FusionDesignandEngineering(2015).2– Miller,R.“ARIES-STdesignpointselection.”FusionDesignandEngineering(2015).3– Meier,W.,Moir,R.“AnalysesinSupportofZ-PinchIFEandActinideTransmutation- LLNLProgressReportforFY-06.”LANL(2006).
[1] [2] [3]
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FuelO&MIncrementalConstruction
Itemto
tal,as%oftotalprojectNPV
FuelO&MIncremental capitalConstruction
[1] [2] [3] [4] [4] [4]
1– Woodruff,S.,Miller,R.“CostSensitivityAnalysisfora100MWe modularpowerplantandfusionneutronsource.”FusionDesignandEngineering(2015).2– Miller,R.“ARIES-STdesignpointselection.”FusionDesignandEngineering(2015).3– Meier,W.,Moir,R.“AnalysesinSupportofZ-PinchIFEandActinideTransmutation- LLNLProgressReportforFY-06.”LANL(2006).4– Deutch,J.,etal.“UpdateontheMIT2003FutureofNuclearPower.”MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(2009).
Across various fusion power plant designs studies, capital cost is the largest contributor to total net present value
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Calculating LCOE can be useful but is sensitive to parameters that are unknown for fusion power plants
LCOEprojectionsforPPCS-Adesign(Maisonnier,2005)usingcostinginformationfromHan,2013.LCOEmodeladaptedfromMITspreadsheetmodel(2009).Capacity =1.55GW,SpecificCapital=$3,940$/kW,FixedO&M1 =$65.8/kW/year,Var O&M2 =7.78mills/kWh1- (includesDDcosts);2- (includeswastedisposal)
Delaysleadtocostincreases(evenifdirectcapitalremainsflat)
HighOperationalAvailabilityLowmarginalcost
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Low-riskregime
Makethemlastatleast30years
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Driving for a common methodology, approach, and balance of plant to have roughly comparable results
Source:www.nerdtrek.com
4xfusionreactors
Heatexchange
Acommonbalanceofplant
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AcommontritiumplantTritiumextractionandrecycling
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Driving for a common methodology, approach, and balance of plant to have roughly comparable results
Source:www.nerdtrek.com
4xfusionreactors
Heatexchange
Acommonbalanceofplant
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AcommontritiumplantTritiumextractionandrecycling
Howtofindacommonsetofinputs,boundaryconditions,andconstraints?
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What does a control volume look like for a generic fusion reactor?
Avg.ThermalOutput(𝑃"#$)
FuelInput(D-T)
Exhaust- FusionProducts- UnburnedFuel- Waste
ThermalFluxNeutronFlux
FusionReactions
OtherMass- Driver- Target
AveragePowerIn (𝑃"&')- DriverEfficiency(η))- Energyin(𝐸&')- AveragePulseFrequency(𝑓)̅
𝑃"&' = 𝐸&' ∗ 𝑓̅η)
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What are the parameters and metrics that can link four distinct fusion power cores to a common balance of plant?
Avg.ThermalOutput(𝑃"#$)
FuelInput(D-T)
KeyParametersTemperature(T)IonDensity(ni)ConfinementTime(τ)TritiumFraction(TF)BurnupFraction(BF)MassFuel(mf)
Exhaust- FusionProducts- UnburnedFuel- Waste
ThermalFluxNeutronFlux
Pfus**
OtherMass- Driver- Target
AveragePowerIn (𝑃"&')- DriverEfficiency(η))- Energyin(𝐸&')- AveragePulseFrequency(𝑓)̅
𝑃"&' = 𝐸&' ∗ 𝑓̅η)
**Note:𝑃"012 doesnotequal𝑃"#$becauseofexothermicreactionsthatmayoccurintheblanket
KeyMetricsThermalOutputRecirculatingPower
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What are the dependent variables, boundary conditions, and constraints at play?
Avg.ThermalOutput(𝑃"#$)
FuelInput(D-T)
Dependant VariableCapitalCost
BoundaryConditionsPth =500MW
Exhaust- FusionProducts- UnburnedFuel- Waste
ThermalFluxNeutronFlux
Pfus**
OtherMass- Driver- Target
AveragePowerIn (𝑃"&')- DriverEfficiency(η))- Energyin(𝐸&')- AveragePulseFrequency(𝑓)̅
𝑃"&' = 𝐸&' ∗ 𝑓̅η)
ConstraintsRecirculatingpowerThermalfirstwallloadingNeutronloadingExhausthandling
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- Compatibleacrossconceptsforfusionpowercore- Smallersizehasfavorablecharacteristics
- Lower-riskprofileforinvestors- Relevantandattractivetoutilities- Manufacturing/repetitionrate
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Why Pth = 500 MW?
- Limitparasiticloads,achievesufficientnetelectricalcapacitywithlimitedfootprint
𝑃"&'
FusionReactor PowerPlant𝑃"#$ 𝑃"3,5
𝑃"'5#,5
Thermal output vs. recirculating power?
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- Challenge:Reactorshouldnotexceedthermalloadingenvisionedfirstwallmaterialanddesign
- ITER– EnhancedHeatFluxPanelsdesignedfor4.7MW/m2 [1]- Armor– Beryllium- HeatSink– CuCrZr- Structure– AusteniticSteel
- ITER– DiverterSurfacedesignedfortime-averaged10MW/m2,shortdurationsupto20MW/m2[2]
- Armor- Tungsten
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Constraint: First Wall Thermal Loading
D=2mPfus =500MWFWLoading=39.8MW/m2
D=6m Pfus =500MWFWLoading=4.4MW/m2
FortheCostStudy:
- Geometry/sizeofreactorvesselshouldreflectwallloadingconstraints.
- Dependencybetweenmaterial– thermalconstraint–geometry– cost
- Liquidfirstwallscanrelaxthermalloadingconstraint
[1]– Mazul et.al,“RussiandevelopmentofenhancedheatfluxtechnologiesforITERfirstwall.”FusionEngineeringandDesign (2012).[2]– Merola et.al,“EngineeringchallengesanddevelopmentoftheITERBlanketSystemand Divertor.”FusionEngineeringandDesign (2015).
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Constraint: Neutronics / Neutron Shielding
- Duelobjectives:- Moderatefast(14.1MeV)neutronstothermalneutrons- Protectstructure,magnets,andpulsedpowersystemsfromneutron
damage
- Challenge:The“rightway”toscatterandmoderate14.1MeVneutronsisn’tclear.
- Challenge:Neutrondamagewillrequirereplacementofcomponents,magnets,and/orpulsedpowersystem
ITERShieldBlock[1]FortheCostStudy:
- Recognizeandquantifytheimpactthatuncertainneutronicbehaviormighthaveoncost
- Dependencybetweenshieldingtechnology– cost– neutrondamage– componentreplacementcosts
- Quantifyingtheuncertaintyintroducedbymultipleshieldingtechnologiesandunknownperformancecouldbeapositiveoutcomeofthecoststudy
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Fuel cycle: there is not enough tritium (T) supply to burn without breeding + recycling
CANDUT-Stockpile~20kg
T-Stockpiledecay~1.1kg/yr
CANDUT-Production3.27kg/yr [1]
1– Nietal.,“TritiumsupplyassessmentforITERandDEMOnstration powerplant.”FusionEngineeringandDesign,88(2013)2– Sawan,M.andAbdou,M.,“Physicsandtechnologyconditionsforattainingtritiumself-sufficiencyfortheDTfuelcycle.”FusionEngineeringandDesign, 81(2006)
TConsumptionfor1GWfusion55.6kg/yr [2]
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As currently conceived, Tritium Extraction Plants are large chemical processes
Source:Konishi etal.(2002)
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1.HTOincoolingwater
2.Tinexhaustgases
3.Tinliquidlithiumorothermedium
Source:M.Gugla etal.
Howwilltechnologyevolve?CommoditypartofBOP,oraslarge,one-off,expensivesubsystems?ALPHAprojectteamswillbenefitfrommainlineR&D.
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ScottVitter
GraduateResearchAssistantTheUniversityofTexasasAustinscott.vitter@utexas.edu
Thank you
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What does the domestic generating fleet look like, and what might Fusion displace / replace?
Gas– 473GWCoal– 271GWWater– 107GWNuclear– 101GWWind– 76GW
Oil– 37GWSolar– 16GWBiomass– 14GWOther<8GW
2.1GW
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How much of the fleet currently operating as baseload year-round (CF > 70%) ?
Total– 195GWNuclear– 101GWCoal– 50GWGas– 39GWOther<5GW
2.1GW
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In 2015-2016, conversions and retirements of coal-fired power plants were driven by EPA Policy
Announcedasof2/2016(notprojections)
MATScompliancedeadlineby2016
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A large Burn-up Fraction requires a smaller tritium inventory on hand
𝐵𝐹 = 𝑇91:'#
𝑇91:'# + 𝑇:5<=<>5
Larger Tritium Breeding Ratios will make-up for losses and produce excess fuel for ne reactors
Burn Rate (BR) and Tritium Breeding Ratio (TBR) are two important parameters for self-sufficiency
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𝑇𝐵𝑅 = 𝑇9:5)𝑇91:'#
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A large Burn-up Fraction requires a smaller tritium inventory on hand
𝐵𝐹 = 𝑇91:'#
𝑇91:'# + 𝑇:5<=<>5𝑇𝐵𝑅 =
𝑇9:5)𝑇91:'#
Larger Tritium Breeding Ratios will make-up for losses and produce excess fuel for ne reactors
Burn Rate (BR) and Tritium Breeding Ratio (TBR) are two important parameters for self-sufficiency
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Fusion power core “performance” metric
Mostly agnostic to source of 14.1 MeV neutrons
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Fusiondevelopmentgoal:Firstpre-commercialdemonstrationplant
CommercialPlantHandoff
PrimarilyGov’tFundedR&D
A:Now B:Endgame
When,how,andtowhom?
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Why does it matter, who will care?
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The Tritium Extraction Facility (TEF) needed for a fusion power plant is larger than has ever been built
- AnnualTritiumLoadatDarlingtonTritiumRemovalFacility(Canada)~3kg
>56kg - AnnualTritiumLoadatTritiumExtractionPlantfora1GWfus
InflowsofTritiumatanExtractionPlant:
1. CoolantLoopà DTRFcurrentlyextractstritiumfromheavywater
2. Tritiumbreedingmaterialà SavannahRiverSite($500M)extractstritiumfromspentfuelrods.Limitedexperienceextractingfromliquidlithium.
3. Exhaustgasà Experienceattokamakexperiments(JETinUK,TFTRatPrinceton)
Howwilltechnologyevolve?Istherightanalogyairseparationunitsatthermalpowerplants?Oraslarge,one-off,expensivesubsystems?
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- Constraint:exhaustand/orwastematerialcannotinterferewithhigh-frequencypulses
- Whatisthemagnitudeofexhaustand/orwastematerialenvisioned?
- Whatlevelofvacuumisneeded(rough,middle,orhighvacuum)?
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Constraint: Mass flow rate / exhaust flow rate
FortheCostStudy:
- Dependencybetweenmasstransport– geometry– cost
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