2017 10-10 ctp update and assessment
TRANSCRIPT
AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
October 10, 2017
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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1) Salafi-jihadi militants killed four U.S. service members in an ambush. U.S.
Special Forces were assisting Nigerien counterterrorism forces in the field.
2) ISIS in Libya’s first suicide attack since 2016 may signal the start of a new
attack campaign in Libyan cities.
3) The withdrawal of the opposition candidate derails re-run presidential
elections in Kenya.
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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri reaffirmed the need for the Salafi-jihadi movement to unite
and remain steadfast in jihad in an October 4 video statement. Zawahiri criticized ISIS for
breaking rank and its bayat, oath, to him. He messaged Syrians particularly, criticizing
groups that compromised on principles of jihad in order to alleviate suffering. Zawahiri noted
that despite increased military investment from the West, the tide of jihad is rising.
Outlook: Al Qaeda could draw defectors from ISIS as ISIS suffers losses in Iraq and Syria.
Tehrik-e-Taliban, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda Associates
The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) increased its attack tempo in Pakistan. The
group claimed four attacks in Pakistan in one month, which is still not on par with other
regional branches. This increased operational tempo may indicate an effort to establish a
firm foothold in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas to compensate for losses in
Iraq and Syria.
Outlook: Pakistani security forces will continue limited counter-ISIS operations but will deny
any increase in the group’s presence in Pakistan.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Russian President Putin announced his willingness to facilitate a settlement of the Yemeni civil
war, which may have been posturing before he met with Saudi King Salman to negotiate oil
production and output. Putin could seek to intervene diplomatically in the Yemeni civil war to
gain influence. Saudi Arabia announced an MoU to purchase Russian S-400 air defense
systems, shifting away from U.S. and UK purchases.
Outlook: Russia and Saudi Arabia will coordinate output to drive oil prices up.
Security
Saudi-led coalition airstrikes killed at least 38 civilians in one week in al Houthi-Saleh
strongholds amid heightened international scrutiny of the bombing campaign.
Outlook: The coalition will sustain its current air campaign.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP is conducting an explosive attack campaign to expel Emirati-backed counterterrorism
forces from Abyan governorate, southern Yemen.
Outlook: AQAP’s attacks will compel security forces to withdraw from parts of Abyan.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 04 OCT: Saudi-led
coalition airstrikes
killed 12 civilians in
Baqim district,
Sa’ada.
2) 05 OCT: A reported
U.S. airstrike killed
an AQAP militant in
Yakla, al Bayda.
3) 06 OCT: AQAP
militants detonated
an SVBIED in
southern Abyan.
4) 06 OCT: Lahij
security forces
seized an AQAP
weapons cache in
Hawta city, Lahij.
5) 08 OCT: A reported
U.S. airstrike killed
five AQAP militants
in Ma'rib.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Kenyan presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s withdrawal from the Kenyan election is
politically destabilizing. Odinga called for a credible election according to a prior Supreme
Court ruling that requires new elections if a candidate withdraws.
Outlook: The Supreme Court will call for a new election to avoid a constitutional crisis.
Security
Somali National Army (SNA) forces maintained a high operational tempo against al Shabaab
in response to an uptick in attacks in Mogadishu. SNA forces detained over fifty suspected al
Shabaab militants in Mogadishu for the second time in a week.
Outlook: The raids will not disrupt al Shabaab’s primary strongholds in southern Somalia.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab is degrading security forces in Puntland. Al Shabaab militants attacked a police
checkpoint in Boosaaso and assassinated the chief of airport security in Galkayo.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will gain increased freedom of movement in Puntland.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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1) 06 OCT: Al Shabaab
militants detonated
an IED targeting
AMISOM forces in
Bulo Marer, Lower
Shabelle.
2) 07 OCT: Al Shabaab
militants detonated
an IED targeting
Ethiopian AMISOM
troops near Wajid
town, Bakool region.
3) 09 OCT: Al Shabaab
militants attacked a
police checkpoint
near Boosaaso,
Puntland.
4) 10 OCT: Suspected
al Shabaab militants
attacked a university
in Mombasa, Kwale
county, Kenya
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Revived UN-led talks on Libya achieved a first step with face-to-face meetings between rival
legislators. Members of a consultative body in Tripoli and a parliament in eastern Libya
completed initial talks about amending the Libyan Political Agreement.
Outlook: Progress will slow in the second round of talks, which raise more divisive issues.
Security
A counter-migration force aligned with the UN-backed government took control of Sabratha
city in northwestern Libya, ending weeks of clashes. The victorious militia also has ties to the
Libyan National Army, which is capitalizing on opposition to illegal migration to gain power in
western Libya and court European support.
Outlook: The LNA will use its foothold in Sabratha to increase its influence in the northwest.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS Wilayat Tarablus conducted a revenge suicide attack at a courthouse as militants faced
trial in Misrata, northwestern Libya. Misratan forces ousted ISIS from Sirte, Libya in 2016.
Outlook: ISIS will conduct intermittent suicide attacks to degrade security in Libyan cities.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1) 04 OCT : Islamist
Tripoli security
forces clashed with
Qaddafi loyalists in
Tripoli.
2) 04 OCT: ISIS
Wilayat Tarablus
conducted revenge
attack on a court
building in Misrata.
3) 06 OCT : An anti-
ISIS fighting force
took full control of
Sabratha after
three weeks of
clashes with an
Islamist militia
involved in
migration.
4) 07 OCT: LNA
forces stopped five
ISIS vehicles in Tiji.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
The Tunisian government took steps to redress civilians’ grievances. President Beji Caid
Essebsi announced development measures for Sousse governorate. Tunisian election
officials also announced a new date for postponed municipal elections.
Outlook: Anti-government sentiment and protests will decrease in the near term.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (JNIM, Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
Salafi-jihadi militants demonstrated increased attack capabilities against U.S. troops in the
Sahel. Militants ambushed a joint American-Nigerien patrol near the Malian border on
October 4, killing four U.S. special operators. The attack remains unclaimed. Groups
affiliated with both ISIS and AQIM operate with similar capabilities in this region.
Both Boko Haram factions sustained insurgencies against Nigerian security forces. ISIS
West Africa released photos of an ambush. The Boko Haram faction led by Abubakr Shekau
clashed with local forces in Bama, Borno state, Nigeria.
Outlook: The success of the October 4 attack will lead to an increase in attempted attacks
on U.S. troops advising and assisting Nigerien counterterrorism forces.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 04 OCT: Tunisian
security forces
arrested a militant
in Sidi Bouzid,
Tunisia.
2) 04 OCT: Tunisian
security forces
arrested two ISIS-
affiliated Ansar Al-
Sharia Tunisia
supporters in Ben
Arous, Tunisia.
3) 04 OCT: Algerian
National People’s
Army arrested
three militants in
Skikda, Algeria.
4) 05 OCT: A militant
surrendered to
Algerian forces in
Tamanarasset,
Algeria.
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
1) 04 OCT: Salafi-
jihadi militants
killed four U.S.
special operators in
Tongo Tongo,
Niger.
2) 04 OCT: Suspected
JNIM militants
killed a Tuareg
leader in Menaka
region, Mali.
3) 04 OCT: Nigerian
security forces
clashed with Boko
Haram-Shekau
militants in Pulka,
Bama, Borno State.
4) 05 OCT: Suspected
Ansar al Islam
militants attacked a
Gendarmerie post
in Mentao, Soum,
Burkina Faso.
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ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
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Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
senior Iran analyst
(202) 888-6572
Maher Farrukh
al Qaeda analyst
(202) 888-6574
Caroline Goodson
program assistant
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
(202) 888-6570
Mike Saidi
Iran analyst
(202) 888-6573
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
(202) 888-6569