2015 02-10 ctp update and assessment

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

February 10, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Yemen’s al Houthis announced plan to form a central government.2. Iran asserted the regime’s missiles are non-negotiable and that it will install new

centrifuges if the P5+1 returns to its previous negotiating position. 3. Chief of TTP Jamatul Ahrar severely injured in clashes in Nangarhar province.

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ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its

followers in the West. The Charlie Hebdo attack, claimed by AQAP, may provide both momentum to the movement and

propaganda for al Qaeda to push for such attacks. Despite competition with ISIS, the al Qaeda network will continue to direct

resources to the Iraq-Syria front to support the Sunni populations there. The loss of AQAP senior leader Harith bin Ghazi al

Nadhari will affect al Qaeda’s ability to message to potential fighters, since he regularly spoke to the issue, especially that

fighters in Iraq-Syria should avoid adopting ISIS’s practice of killing Muslims who do not subscribe to its version of Islam.

Jordanian officials released al Qaeda-aligned ideologue Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi from prison. Maqdisi is expected to

denounce ISIS in an exclusive interview.

Outlook: Al Qaeda seeks to reassert its relevance in the global jihadist movement and will try to influence the decision-making

of foreign fighters in the Iraq-Syria conflict.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Pakistani military continues to consistently target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in ground operations and air

strikes in tribal and urban areas of Pakistan. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes

target TTP leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border. Chief of TTP Jamatul Ahrar, Omar Khalid Khorasani,

was severely injured in clashes with Afghan security forces in the Nangarhar province, signaling increased cooperation between

Pakistani and Afghan forces on targeting TTP militants.

Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan

border. The tempo of militant attacks may falter in response to intensified anti-TTP operations. AQIS continues media

operations and may launch additional spectacular attacks, possibly in conjunction with TTP.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalYemen’s political crisis remains unresolved as the al Houthis announced the creation of a presidential council and interim

assembly under al Houthi guidance on February 6. The al Houthis made the announcement after UN-led peace talks among the

country’s political groups failed to produce any agreement to end the political crisis. The Southern Movement and the Ma’rib

Tribal Alliance both announced that they would not submit to the new government’s leadership.

Outlook: The al Houthis’ formation of a new government will lead to strong political divisions in the country. Al Houthi attempts

to enforce the interim government’s policies in dissenting regions could lead to large-scale fighting.

SecuritySouthern Movement militants significantly increased activity against security forces in Lahij and Aden. Ansar al Sharia

continued attacks against security forces in Hadramawt, launching a large-scale attack in al Qatan. Ansar al Sharia also

launched attacks against the al Houthis and military forces reportedly allied with the al Houthis in al Bayda and Ibb. Tribes in

Ma’rib erected road blocks throughout the governorate in preparation for al Houthi attacks.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia continues its attacks on both security forces and the al Houthis. Al Houthi attempts to increase control

in Ma’rib could drive tribal support to AQAP.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP released a statement saying that a U.S. airstrike killed four AQAP members, including senior leader Harith bin Ghazi al

Nadhari. The statement also claimed that the airstrikes were part of America’s plot to help the al Houthis take over Yemen.

Outlook: AQAP will try to use the increased number of alleged U.S. airstrikes in Yemen in combination with the al Houthi

takeover of the government as a recruiting mechanism. As southern governorates begin to distance themselves from Sana’a, AQAP may try to take a more active role in controlling areas currently under its influence.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 02-03 FEB: Ansar al Sharia engaged in heavy fighting with security forces in Qatan, Hadramawt.2) 01-03 FEB: Ansar al Sharia assassinated al Houthi targets in Ibb city.3) 01-04 FEB: Ansar al Sharia targeted al Houthi and security forces in Rada’a, al Bayda.4) 02 FEB: Southern Movement militants and Ansar al Sharia militants clashed with security forces in Lahij.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalPolitical fallout from Somaliland’s January 30 seizure of arms continues. Somaliland returned the weapons it had seized in Berbera to Sudan; Somaliland also denied that it was violating the 1992 arms embargo or supporting al Shabaab fighters. On February 4, the Presidents of Puntland and the interim Jubba Administration arrived in Mogadishu for talks with Somali Federal Government officials. The Somali Federal Parliament is expected to vote on a new proposed cabinet next week.

Outlook: Despite Somaliland returning the weapons to Sudan, relations between Puntland and Somaliland are likely to remain tense, particularly due to accusations that Somaliland supports al Shabaab fighters in Puntland. The cabinet proposal is likely to pass during a vote in Parliament.

SecurityA U.S. airstrike killed a number of al Shabaab fighters on January 31 in Dugule and Dinsor. The casualties included Yusuf

Dheeq who was al Shabaab’s head of external operations and reportedly the head of al Shabaab’s intelligence organization,

Amniyat. Kenyan AMISOM forces also carried out airstrikes in five villages around Kismayo, Lower Jubba region.

Outlook: U.S. airstrikes may affect al Shabaab’s capabilities as its senior leadership is eliminated. AMISOM operations in

Kismayo will also affect al Shabaab operations.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab carried out a successful attack on a Boosaaso police station on February 3, an area that has seen sporadic al Shabaab activity. Al Shabaab also stole livestock and kidnapped herders in Lower Jubba region on January 5, which may indicate the group’s loss of control in the area.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to conduct asymmetric attacks in areas under government control such as Boosaaso, Puntland and Mogadishu, Somalia. These will likely increase as Somali Government and AMISOM forces continue to pressure al Shabaab in the areas it still controls. The loss of resources is probably affecting al Shabaab’s supplies, prompting recent incidents to secure livestock and finances.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:1) 31 JAN: Al Shabaab leader Yusuf Dheeqkilled in U.S. airstrike in Dinsor, Bay region. 2) 03 FEB: Five AMISOM airstrikes targeted al Shabaab in villages around Kismayo, Lower Jubba region. 3) 03 FEB: Al Shabaab militants attacked police station in Boosaaso, Bari region.4) 04 FEB: Al Shabaab stole livestock and kidnapped herders near Badhade, Lower Jubba region.

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ASSESSMENT:

AQIMAlgeria continued its counter-smuggling operations against AQIM near Algiers and Algeria’s southern border.

Outlook: Unrest in Libya will continue to contribute to AQIM’s overall ability to carry out smuggling operations in the Sahel.

AQIM may seek to support Ansar al Din and associates in Mali and will probably continue its relationships with Ansar al Sharia

in Libya and Tunisia.

Ansar al Sharia (Libya, Tunisia)Operation Dignity and Libyan military forces continued to advance against Ansar al Sharia Libya and allied forces for control of

Benghazi, seizing the Benghazi Port and other areas. Ansar al Sharia militants detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised

explosive device (SVBIED) near a Libyan military checkpoint in the Laithi neighborhood of Benghazi, an Ansar al Sharia

stronghold, in response to recent military loses. In Tunisia, security forces conducted multiple raids and arrests against

unidentified Islamist militants for the second week in a row.

Outlook: Despite recent Operation Dignity gains, the conflict in Libya is likely to continue unabated as Ansar al Sharia holds

territory in Derna and Benghazi.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)The MNLA and pro-government fighters continue to clash in northern Mali, culminating in an MNLA kidnapping of 20 residents

of Kano. Meanwhile, inter-Malian peace talks are scheduled to take place this week in Algiers.

Outlook: Inter-Malian peace talks are unlikely to solve the current crisis as waves of violence continue to sweep through

northern Mali. MINUSMA’s efforts will do little to stabilize the region, while the Malian government appears to be incapable of

creating political progress. The security situation may create conditions in which AQIM and Ansar al Din can expand in Mali.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA


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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA

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1. 19 DEC: Tunisian army begins ground operations targeting AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn Nafaa Brigade in Jebel Chaambi.2. 16 DEC: Moroccan and Spanish authorities dismantle ISIS recruiting cell in Melilla. 3. 17-19 DEC: Fighting between Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn for control of Ras Lanufand Es Sider oil ports

intensifies.

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1. 21 JAN: Libyan military forces seize the Libyan Central Bank branch in Benghazi during clashes with Ansar al Sharia2. 20-22 JAN: The Algerian military interdicts and arrests 58 smugglers in the Tamanrasset province3. 21 JAN: The Algerian military arrests a wanted terrorist working with groups abroad and two smugglers

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intensifies.

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1) 24 JAN: Algerian military arrests 62 people in anti-smuggling operations in Tamanrasset.2) 25-27 JAN: Operation Dignity attacks Ansar al Sharia forces, including launching airstrikes, in Benghazi.3) 30 JAN: Tunisia National Guard arrests 11 militants suspected of plotting terrorist attacks in southern Tunisia.

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intensifies.

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1. 21 JAN: Libyan military forces seize the Libyan Central Bank branch in Benghazi during clashes with Ansar al Sharia2. 20-22 JAN: The Algerian military interdicts and arrests 58 smugglers in the Tamanrasset province3. 21 JAN: The Algerian military arrests a wanted terrorist working with groups abroad and two smugglers

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intensifies.

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1) 05 FEB: Operation Dignity forces advanced against Ansar al Sharia in several areas of Benghazi, including seizing the Benghazi Port. 2) 06 FEB: Ansar al Sharia detonated an SVBIED near a Libyan military checkpoint in Laithi neighborhood of Benghazi, killing two and wounding 20 people. 3) 02 FEB: Unknown gunmen killed two Algerian police officers in café in Boura.

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 03 FEB: French troops kill a dozen Islamist militants in the region of the Adrar des IfoghasMountains . 2) 01 FEB: MNLA exchanges gunfire with pro-government fighters in Kano and kidnaps 20 Kano residents.

ASSESSMENT:

Nuclear Talks

The Foreign Ministry reiterated that the regime’s missiles are non-negotiable, echoing previous statements made by the

Supreme Leader. Tehran, meanwhile, stated that it will continue to advance its nuclear program and install more centrifuges if

the P5+1 returns to its previous position regarding Iran.

Outlook: Senior regime officials have coalesced around Khamenei’s policy of compartmentalized negotiations. A nuclear deal

that does not tie-in other issues, i.e. Iran’s missiles, thus constitutes an acceptable accord for Tehran.

Military and Security

Iran launched its fourth domestically produced satellite named Fajr last week, making it the first successful launch since the

Navid Elm-o Sanat in February 2012. It is probable there have been at least two failed launches of the Fajr in the last several

years, along with multiple delays in its launch schedule. It is unclear whether the Fajr is successfully in orbit, despite state-run

Iranian media confirmation.

Outlook: Iran will continue to work toward improving its space program despite economic and sanctions-related impediments.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

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01 FEB: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani cited President Obama’s tensions with Congress over sanctions as a

reason for the inability for Obama to make a “prudent decision”

02 FEB: 220 parliamentarians signed a legislative plan to “protect Iran’s nuclear rights”

02 FEB: Iran’s National Gas Company announced the start of new pipeline to southern Iraq

02 FEB: Iran successfully launched its fourth domestically made satellite into orbit

02 FEB: Foreign Ministry denies claims by Parliamentarian Alaeddin Boroujerdi that Israel sent a private

message expressing its disinterest in escalation after January 18 Hezbollah attack in Syria

03 FEB: Judiciary held the 5th session of the heads of government; Judiciary Head Sadegh Amoli Larijani

urges government not to change judiciary budget

04 FEB: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami reiterated the Supreme Leader’s message that enemies seek to

destroy unity among Muslims

04 FEB: Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia claimed that Iran-Saudi relations remain cold and criticized Saudi

Arabia’s contribution to plunging oil prices

04 FEB: MP Boroujerdi meets with Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister

04 FEB: Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh outlines diversification of Iran’s economy

04 FEB: Director for Political and International Affairs Hamid Baeidnejad says that Iran will continue to

develop its nuclear program if new sanctions are imposed

04 FEB: Iran and Afghanistan sign border security agreement

05 FEB: President Hassan Rouhani announced the formation of committees to avoid loan defaults

06 FEB: Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Secretary of State John Kerry met on the sidelines of the Munich

Security Conference

ACRONYMS

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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran [email protected](202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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2015 02-10 ctp update and assessment

Government & Nonprofit

al houthi attempts

antittp operations

taliban pakistan ttp

targeting ttp militants

chief of ttp jamatul

pakistan border

iraqsyria conflict

ground operations