AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT July 22, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The UN Security Council approved a resolution endorsing the Iranian nuclear agreement on July 20. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the deal would not change Iran’s policy toward the U.S.

2. Yemen’s exiled government may be attempting to re-establish a foothold in the country. Officials began returning to Aden after fighters retook the city under “Operation Golden Arrow,” backed by the Saudi Arabian-led coalition.

3. AQIM may be looking to reassert itself in the North African region. It carried out its deadliest attack in over a year in Algeria, killing nine Algerian soldiers.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkThe Pentagon confirmed the death of Muhsen al Fadhli, a senior al Qaeda operative with a distinguished resume, in a July 8 airstrike in Syria. Fadhli was serving as the leader of the so-called “Khorasan group,” a cell of al Qaeda veterans that worked alongside al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, providing strategic guidance. Fadhli had fought in Chechnya and Afghanistan, ran al Qaeda’s Iran-based network in 2011, and traveled to Syria in 2013. Though Fadhli’s death is significant, removing senior al Qaeda leaders from the battlefield has not degraded the leadership long term.The al Qaeda network continues to remain cohesive despite persistent rumors of defections to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS).

Outlook: Muhsen al Fadhli’s death in Syria is unlikely to affect al Qaeda operations overall. The strategy of degrading al Qaeda leadership has been ineffective in the long term.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesTehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emir Mullah Fazlullah released a statement on the occasion of Eid al Fitr, promoting the unity of his group and threatening to attack Pakistani soldiers and political groups. This statement comes at a time when the Pakistani military’s Operation Zarb-e-Azb has destroyed several of the TTP’s strongholds in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The group appears to be splintered and this message from Fazlullah may be seen as an attempt to raise the morale of his fighters.

Pakistani military has begun to phase out their anti-militancy operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Asim Bajwa, Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) announced the completion of Operation Khyber, an offshoot of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in Khyber Agency. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the offensive against militancy in North Waziristan is now in its final phase.

Outlook: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) may increase its attacks against Pakistani security forces, following the message from Mullah Fazlullah.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalPresident Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government may be seeking to establish itself in the southern port city of Aden following the city’s liberation from al Houthi militants. Members of Hadi’s government arrived in Aden on July 17 with a stated role to ensure security and stability within the city as well as the revival of state institutions within Aden. There are rumors that Hadi will return to Aden. Hadi appointed Nayef al Bakri, the head of the Resistance Council in Aden, as governor on July 20.

Outlook: It is possible that Hadi will encounter resistance to his return from hardline members of southern resistance forces who seek an independent southern Yemeni state.

SecurityThe momentum of the conflict in Yemen appears to be shifting in favor of local anti-al Houthi popular resistance groups. Southern popular resistance groups, with the assistance of Saudi Arabian-led Operation Golden Arrow, took control of Aden city from al Houthi militants on July 19. Additionally, popular resistance fighters have advanced toward Taiz International Airport on July 15 as well as the Hawd al Ashraf area of Taiz city July 16.

Outlook: It is likely that Operation Golden Arrow forces will seek to liberate the city of Taiz from al Houthi forces. In response, members of the al Houthi movement may begin to withdraw toward northern Yemen.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenBoth ISIS and AQAP appear to be taking advantage of the successes of Operation Golden Arrow to carry out operations against a weakened al Houthi movement. ISIS Wilayat Aden claimed credit via Twitter for a July 18 raid that captured and killed a number of al Houthi snipers in the Crater district of Aden. Additionally, AQAP claimed responsibility for taking control of the headquarters of the 119th Mechanized Brigade in Shabwah governorate on July 18.

Outlook: AQAP will likely seek to establish itself as a superior fighting force within Yemen as it continues to fight alongside popular resistance groups. ISIS in Yemen will likely seek to maintain its relevancy by engaging in minor conflict with the al Houthi movement.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 20 JUL: ISIS Wilayat Sana’a detonated a VBIED in al Jiraf, Sana’a. 2) 19 JUL: Operation Golden Arrow forces retook al Tawahi district, liberating Aden city from the al Houthis.3) 18 JUL: AQAP fighters took control of the camp of the 119th Infantry Brigade in Shabwah. 4) 16 JUL: Local popular resistance groups advanced upon the Hawd al Ashraf region of Taiz City.

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PoliticalSomalia’s Interim Jubba Administration and Puntland semiautonomous region may soon cooperate with the Somali Federal Government’s federalization process. The three administrations reportedly reconciled during talks held in Garowe, Puntland, where the states signed on to Somalia’s Provisional Constitution. Somali President Omar Abdirashid announced during the talks that the Galmudug Interim Administration border would now reflect the current Puntland border, which reduces the size of territory under the newly formed state, but was a key issue preventing Puntland from participating in the federalization process.

Outlook: Jubbaland and Puntland’s renewed ties with the Somali Federal Government are a positive development in the Somali federalization process, but it is likely that tensions between the groups will redevelop before the 2016 deadline, further stalling the process.

Security Kenyan officials are likely to continue to increase security measures prior to President Barack Obama’s visit later this week. The Kenyan administration announced that all flights between Somalia and Nairobi’s Wilson and Jomo Kenyatta airports will be grounded during the U.S. delegation’s visit. Separately, the U.S. Department of State released a travel alert for U.S. citizens in Kenya, warning that the summit President Obama is set to attend may be a target for terrorist activity.

Outlook: Kenyan officials will continue to implement measures to prevent travel from Somalia during President Obama’s visit, and the nation’s security organizations will increase their presence in Nairobi in preparation for a potential attack.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab continues to attempt to defend its major strongholds of Bardhere, Gedo region, and Dinsoor, Bay region. The group began to clash with Ethiopian troops in Bay region on July 17 and has resorted to detonating improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting the troops. Separately, the group captured a military base in Golweyn, Lower Shabelle region, bringing its holdings to at least eleven bases in the region.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue to clash with Ethiopian troops as they approach the group’s strongholds in southern Somalia. The group may also increase its presence in the Lower Shabelle to block troops moving north from Mogadishu.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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1) 16 JUL: A suspected U.S. airstrike killed at least two al Shabaab senior officials near Bardhere, Bay region.2) 17 JUL: Al Shabaab seized a Somali military base near Golweyn, Lower Shabelle region.3) 17 JUL: Al Shabaab clashed with Ethiopian troops near Gofgudud, Bay region.4) 19 JUL: Somali and Ethiopian troops seized Ufurow, Bay region, from al Shabaab militants.

GULF OF ADEN

HORN OF AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe signing of the Libyan Political Accord elicited praise from the international community and the UN Security Council. The GNC has not made a public statement since the summit concluded and UN Envoy Leon has made several public appearances, where he called on the GNC to join the democratic process. The success of the diplomatic process likely inspired the adoption of new peace treaties in Western Libya under the auspices of the LNA’s Western Operations Room.

Outlook: The process to collect unity government leadership suggestions will proceed in the background and will remain confidential. Furthermore, the GNC will find itself under increasing pressure to compromise on its demands and join the leadership selection process. The GNC will likely announce its decision in the next week.

SecurityThe widespread clashes between the LNA and Ansar al Sharia in Benghazi reduced in frequency as Eid al Fitr approached. At this time, no side appears to have gained any strategic edge over the other and this failure to make progress raises questions on General Hafter’s claim that Operation Dignity will be completed soon. Outside of Benghazi, LNA forces from the Eastern Operations Room have surrounded ISIS’s Derna forces in Fatahia, a village to the east of Derna.

Outlook: General Hafter’s posturing on the imminent success of Operation Dignity adds greater pressure to the LNA Benghazi commanders to force Ansar al Sharia out of the city. The LNA will focus on isolating the militia bases from resupply and reinforcement, instead of overrunning their positions.

Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in LibyaAnsar al Sharia continued its defense of its bases in the Laithi, Buatni, and Buhdeima neighborhoods of Benghazi against LNA operations and initiated a new naval reinforcement and resupply operation through Marissa port in northwest Benghazi. In central Libya, ISIS undertook a reorganization of its Sirte leadership with the arrival of Mohammad al Firjani, an Iraqi militant, and expanded into Abu Grain, a village 112 km SE of Misrata, with checkpoints.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia will cease offensive operations and fortify their remaining bases ahead of increased pressure from both LNA land and air forces. ISIS will develop its base in Abu Grain and direct its convoy to occupy al-Jufra air base.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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AQIM AQIM continues to become more active after its month-long silence. The group claimed credit for its deadliest attack in North Africa in a year; killing 11 Algerian soldiers in an ambush near Ain Defla, Algeria. The increase in activity may signal the start of a campaign to increase visibility and attacks. Algerian forces responded with a coordinated response, which resulted in the death of sixteen AQIM militants.

Outlook: Algeria will look to respond to the increase of AQIM activity near militant outposts through increased security measures. AQIM will likely retaliate through small-scale attacks on patrols and military checkpoints.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Militant groups continue to threaten Tunisia with future attacks and unrest. Jund al Khilafa Tunisia threatened to carry out another attack on foreigners and Christians in Tunisia, while other ISIS supporters threatened Tunisian political leaders. Threats to foreigners were made weeks before the June 26 attack in Sousse, indicating that another major attack may be planned. Separately, Tunisian security forces continued to root out terrorist cells. Officials announced the arrest of over 70 individuals from July 11-17.

Outlook: Tunisian authorities will look to address the new threats to the country through heightened security measures. Jund al Khilafa Tunisia and similar groups will likely attempt operations that target popular tourist areas.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Malian security forces continue to aggressively pressure Ansar al Din members in border areas. The Malian Army killed 30 suspected militants in Sikasso, Mali. Security forces arrested 15 other militants and seized weapons and vehicles during the operation. Malian security forces will continue sweeping operations in the Sikasso area, which has recently served as a logistical base for Ansar al Din.

Outlook: Ansar al Din may limit its attacks in those areas as Malian security forces continue to conduct aggressive sweeping operations in southern Mali,. The group may return to its stronghold in northern Mali to regroup.

MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 14 JUL: Gunmen, potentially linked to Ansar al Sharia, attempted to assassinate LNA Col Zwai. The attack failed.2) 15 JUL: An ISIS convoy established a camp in al Rawagah neighborhood in Waddan.3) 15 - 17 JUL: The LNA continued its airstrike, artillery, and ground campaign on Ansar al Sharia positions in Benghazi.4) 19 JUL: Four Italian nationals were kidnapped by gunmen. No statement has been made.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA1) 14 JUL: Tunisian authorities arrested 15 suspected terrorists south of Tunis.2) 14 - 19 JUL: Tunisian forces carried out a shelling campaign on militant outposts in Kef, Tunisia. 3) 17 - 19 JUL: AQIM militants killed 11 Algerian soldiers in an ambush near Ain Defla. Algerian forces responded by killing 16 terrorists in a counter attack.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 16 JUL: The Malian Army killed 30 suspected militants in Sikasso. Security forces also dismantled the militant camp, arrested 15 other militants, and seized weapons and vehicles.2) 15 JUL: Unknown assailants seized an ambulance and its occupants, including two Malian soldiers, in Bourem.

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ASSESSMENT:

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Nuclear TalksIn a July 15 open letter addressed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani declared that the nuclear deal is “a lesson” that diplomacy can solve regional issues. In a response to Rouhani’s letter, Khamenei cautioned that “some world powers are not trustworthy” and stressed that the nuclear deal needs to be scrutinized to ensure that the “other side” does not violate the agreement. During a July 18 speech, the Supreme Leader stressed that the nuclear deal will not alter Iran’s policies towards the U.S. “and vowed that Iran will continue to support its regional allies.” The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously approved a resolution endorsing the nuclear agreement on July 20. Shortly before the UNSC vote, IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said that Iran “will never accept” provisions in the draft of the UNSC resolution which violate Iran’s red lines, especially those regarding armament capabilities. Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan also stated that Iran’s missile capabilities “have never been on the agenda of the talks.”

Outlook: The nuclear agreement is unlikely to fundamentally change Iran’s foreign policy or its support of regional proxies. Regime officials will continue to push back on the resolution’s restrictions on purchase and sale of conventional weapons, especially ballistic missiles.

Economy Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the nuclear agreement “will provide for greater interaction…Iran is a great investment opportunity.” Since the signing of the nuclear agreement, senior officials from Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Russia, the EU, and Italy have expressed interest in strengthening economic ties with Iran. European firms have also started discussions with Iranian officials on potential areas for investment. Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced that Iran’s oil production will reach 4.7 million barrels per day “in the near future.” Central Bank of Iran (CBI) chief stated $26 billion in frozen assets could be released once the nuclear agreement comes into effect. President Hassan Rouhani has claimed that the nuclear deal places Iran on the path of “implementation of…the resistance economy.”

Outlook: Iran will try to bolster its economy by seeking to maximize sanctions relief and attract foreign investment. Increased foreign trade, however, will not reverse the structural problems inherent in Iran’s economy in the short to medium term.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

15 JUL: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that “some world powers are not trustworthy” and stressed that the nuclear deal needs to be scrutinized to ensure that the “other side” does not violate the agreement.

15 JUL: President Hassan Rouhani praised the nuclear deal for placing Iran on the path of “implementation of…the resistance economy.” He declared the deal a “lesson” that diplomacy can resolve regional issues.

16 JUL: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif indicated Iran’s readiness for “cooperation and partnership” with “Arab countries” on “common challenges.”

16 JUL: IRGC Col. Qassem Gharib and IRGC Col. Abdul Karim Ghavabish were buried in Iran after they died in Syria during separate attacks on July 11.

16 JUL: President Hassan Rouhani and British Prime Minister David Cameron discussed the possibility of reopening the British embassy in Tehran.

17 JUL: President Hassan Rouhani indicated willingness to improve cooperation with Turkey during a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

17 JUL: Iranian crude oil supertanker Starla reportedly set sail for Asia with two million barrels of oil, making it the first tanker to leave Iran’s water since the nuclear deal.

18 JUL: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed that the nuclear deal will not change Iran’s policies towards the U.S. and stated that Iran will continue to support its regional allies.

19 JUL: A 60-strong German trade delegation led by German Vice Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs Sigmar Gabriel arrived in Tehran to boost economic ties.

20 JUL: Central Bank of Iran (CBI) chief Valiollah Seif stated $26 billion in frozen assets could be released once the nuclear agreement comes into effect.

20 JUL: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan stated, “Issues related to missiles have never been on the agenda of the [nuclear] talks…”20 JUL: Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced “Iran will raise its oil recovery to 4.7 million barrels per day in the near future.”20 JUL: IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari declared that “we will never accept” sections in the draft of the United

Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) resolution regarding Iran’s “armament capabilities.” 20 JUL: The UNSC unanimously approved a resolution endorsing the P5+1 and Iran nuclear deal.

14 JUL – 20 JUL 2015

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Possible military dimensions (PMD)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org (202) 888-6570

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569