AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

July 19, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. ISIS continues its controlled withdrawal from Sirte in Libya to preserve its capabilities. Libyan factions are using the counter-ISIS fight to pursue their own objectives in the civil war.

2. Al Shabaab targeted Somali government sites in Mogadishu with VBIEDs, but Somali security forces found and cleared the bombs.

3. AQAP claimed three VBIEDs in Aden and al Mukalla port cities.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda leadership threatened retaliation against the United States and its partners. Al Qaeda pledged to hold Pakistan responsible for detaining two of al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri’s daughters and their families on alleged orders from American intelligence in a July 18 statement released by al Sahab Media and posted on Telegram. This statement follows two other statements released this month by Hamza bin Laden, son of Osama bin Laden, and al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri, who both threatened similar retaliation for U.S. actions.

Al Qaeda supporters emphasize al Qaeda’s foundational and leadership roles in the global Salafi-jihadi movement by taking credit for attack methods employed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). A jihadi account re-posted a copy of the Fall 2010 version of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) Inspire magazine, highlighting an article titled, “The Ultimate Mowing Machine,” which suggested using vehicular attacks in future operations. The July 15 post on Telegram responded to the attack in Nice, France on July 14, for which ISIS claimed responsibility.

Individuals close to al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) encouraged Kashmiri Muslims to carry out signature complex attacks using both petrol bombs and knives. The July 12 statement glorified Burhan Wani, whose death at the hands of Indian security forces on July 8 catalyzed mass protests in the Kashmir region. The statement called for decentralized attacks in India, complex attacks on security forces with knives and petrol bombs, emulation of Palestinian “decentralized knife attacks on Israelis,” and emulation of Syrian jihadist movements.

Outlook: AQIS will encourage jihad in the Kashmir region in India, which will serve as another point of competition against ISIS in the region.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalPeace talks in Kuwait resumed on July 16, but show little promise for progress. The delegation aligned with President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi changed course and returned to the peace talks after the UN Special Envoy revoked his previous strategy and redoubled his support for UN Security Council Resolution 2216. The resolution calls for the al Houthis to disarm and to withdraw from seized territory. The al Houthi-General People’s Congress (GPC) delegation subsequently refused to discuss disarmament before the formation of a unity government.

Outlook: The peace talks will probably not succeed without a major shift in negotiating positions from both delegations.

SecurityHadi military forces slowed preparations to attack Sana’a when the Hadi delegation returned to the Kuwait talks. Clashes between al Houthi-Saleh fighters and Hadi-aligned forces continued northeast of Sana’a and in al Jawf governorate, however. Coalition airstrikes targeted al Houthi-Saleh positions in Hajjah governorate near the Yemeni-Saudi border, and the Saudi army mobilized troops toward the border. Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, and surrounding areas are contested.

Outlook: Hadi military forces may launch a full-scale assault on Sana’a before the end of July.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenCENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel indicated on July 15 that the U.S. military may expand its presence in Yemen to fight AQAP. AQAP escalated its attacks against security personnel in order to weaken local governance, including a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack targeting security leaders in Aden on July 15 and two suicide VBIED attacks against checkpoints in al Mukalla on July 18. ISIS has not conducted a major attack since its June 26 coordinated explosive attack on Yemeni security personnel in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.

Outlook: AQAP will continue its attacks against military personnel in Aden and al Mukalla, and ISIS will attack a military target in Aden or al Mukalla in coming weeks.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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1) 13 JUL: Hadi-aligned forces seized positions in Nihm, Sana’a.2) 13 JUL: Hadi-aligned forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in al Matun, al Jawf.3) 13 JUL: Saudi army forces amassed on along the Yemeni-Saudi border.4) 15 JUL: AQAP detonated a VBIED targeting security leaders in Aden city.5) 18 JUL: AQAP detonated two SVBIEDs targeting checkpoints in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.

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PoliticalThe African Union (AU) announced its plan to fill the funding gap created by the European Union’s (EU) 20 percent decrease in funding to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) that began in February 2016. The Federal Government of Somalia also exhibited its solidarity with the Turkish administration under Recep Erdogan by issuing an ultimatum demanding that all Gulenists flee Somalia.

Outlook: The AU’s efforts to fund a larger portion of the AMISOM budget will place additional strain on the AMISOM mission. Somalia will be forced to rely on outside powers, possibly Turkey, to help improve its security after the 2020 AMISOM withdrawal.

Security Al Shabaab forces continue to compete with AMISOM and Somali National Army (SNA) forces for control of strategic towns in central and southern Somalia. Militants and SNA forces exchanged control of Qoryooley in Lower Shabelle region. Local militias also clashed with al Shabaab forces near the al Shabaab stronghold of Harardhere in Mudug region.

Outlook: AMISOM and SNA forces will be incapable of driving al Shabaab militants from these strategic towns.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab attempted multiple attacks in Mogadishu. Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and SNA forces conducted multiple effective counterterrorism operations in Mogadishu. NISA operators seized a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) likely intended to target politicians gathering at the Makka al Mukarama Hotel in Mogadishu on July 14. Security personnel seized a second explosive-laden van and small arms outside Mogadishu on July 13.

Outlook: Security forces in Mogadishu have improved their effectiveness in disrupting al Shabaab operations. Al Shabaab will adapt its methods to counteract security force improvements.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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SOMALIA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 12 JUL - 18 JUL

1) 13 JUL: Local militias clashed with al Shabaab forces near Harardhere in Mudug region.2) 14 JUL: Somali National Intelligence (NISA) forces seized planned SVBIED outside Mogadishu. 3) 15 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted complex attack on Kenyan Defense Force (KDF) convoy outside El Wak town.4) 17 JUL: Ethiopian AMISOM troops allegedly killed 14 civilians near Baidoa, Bay region.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalDialogue among Libyan political factions and international actors is deadlocked as the two Libyan governments refuse to consolidate power. The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR), and UN representatives met in Tunis for Libya Dialogue talks during which drafters released the final version of the Libyan Constitution. The meetings did not produce concrete solutions to increasing political tensions in the country.

Outlook: The HoR will delay drafting a Constitutional referendum law as it continues to consolidate authority in east Libya.

SecurityIslamist militants with ties to the al Qaeda-associated group Ansar al Sharia continue to coordinate attacks against the Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi and surrounding areas. The Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist coalition with Ansar al Sharia elements, increased attacks against the LNA in western Benghazi, regaining control of LNA-held territory. The Ajdabiya-based Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB), another Islamist coalition, continued to march on Benghazi from the south, advancing its line to within 40 kilometers of the city.

Outlook: The BRSC and BDB Islamist coalitions will unite when the BDB reaches Benghazi to reestablish a safe haven in the city. The LNA will not prioritize the fight in Benghazi over its political objectives and expansion into central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS continues to facilitate a controlled withdrawal from Sirte as Misratan forces struggle to secure the city. Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimated the number of ISIS militants in Sirte dropped from about 6,000 in May to several hundred fighters today, illustrating the group’s redistribution of resources and personnel to other regions.

Outlook: ISIS will establish footholds in southern and western Libya in order to launch attacks both in the region and across borders as it loses control of Sirte.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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1) 12 JUL-18 JUL: Misratan forces continued to attack ISIS’s remaining strongholds in central Sirte city.2) 17 JUL: The BDB shot down an LNA helicopter amidst clashes in al Maqrun.3) 12 JUL: The BRSC forced the LNA to retreat from Qanfouda district in Benghazi.4) 14 JUL: The BRSC targeted hospitals and airports with rocket attacks in Benghazi.5) 13 JUL: The LNA began a siege on Derna by blockading entrances to the city.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)The Algerian and Moroccan governments are coordinating to counter terrorism and improve regional security. Moroccan and Algerian dignitaries signed an agreement on July 18. Separately, Moroccan authorities dismantled a six-man cell in western Morocco that may have ties to ISIS in Libya. One of the terrorists was allegedly building a homemade explosive device. This is the second ISIS-linked cell dismantled in Morocco this month. Outlook: ISIS will continue to try to expand its presence in Morocco, which likely remains limited to individual cells. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)ISIS is increasing its activity in populated urban areas near Tunis, which may suggest a shift in tactics in Tunisia. Tunisian authorities dismantled two ISIS-linked cells in the capital this week. One cell was planning attacks on military and government targets throughout Tunis, including the Ministry of the Interior. The focus on the capital may indicate a shift as ISIS moves from building a low-level insurgency near the Libyan and Algerian borders to attacks in Tunis.

Outlook: ISIS will attempt another terrorist attack near Tunis in order to revitalize its insurgency in the border regions.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)AQIM and affiliated groups are inciting violence in the Gao and Kidal regions, the epicenters of the 2012 Tuareg rebellion that ended last year with the Algiers agreement. Ansar al Din leader Iyad Ag Ghaly called for Kidal residents to rise up against French, MINUSMA, and Malian authorities in a recently surfaced video. AQIM and its affiliates claimed six attacks in northern Mali in the past month, including four IED attacks. Police in Gao killed four protesters and wounded more than 35, which also inflamed tensions between local groups and the government in the region. GATIA, a pro-government militia, signed an agreement on July 18 with the Coordination of the Movement of Azawad (CMA), a coalition of former separatist groups, to uphold the peace agreement in northern Mali, but their commitment to this accord is unclear. Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue attacks, provoking instability and inflaming tensions in northern Mali.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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41) 13 JUL: The Algerian People's National Army discovered a terrorist arms cache in Adrar, Algeria.2) 13 JUL: The Tunisian army used artillery to target suspected terrorists in Kasserine, Tunisia.3) 14 JUL: Moroccan security forces dismantled an ISIS-linked cell in Inezgane-Ait Melloul, Morocco.4) 18 JUL: Tunisian security forces arrested 12 terrorists planning attacks in Tunis, Tunisia.

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1) 12 JUL: Militants detonated an IED targeting a MINUSMA supply truck in Tabankort, Mali.2) 13 JUL: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting a MINUSMA supply truck in Kidal, Mali.3) 14 JUL: Ivorian security forces arrested two soldiers with suspected links to the AQIM attack on the Grand Bassam mosque in Abidjan, Mali.4) 15 JUL: Militants attacked a fuel tanker in Gao, Mali.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569