AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

December 13, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. Clashes over oil may define the next stage of Libya’s civil war, giving ISIS an opportunity to resurge after its defeat in Sirte.

2. ISIS may be resuming an explosive attack campaign intended to deter Yemenis from joining local security forces.

3. Boko Haram’s competing factions are pursuing independent strategies that pose serious threats to the Nigerian state.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) called for the prioritization of the Afghanistan-Waziristan theater over Kashmir. The TTP urged militants to return to the priority front and accused Pakistan’s intelligence services of infiltrating militant groups to perpetuate the conflict with India over the disputed Kashmir territory. Pakistani security forces continued to target Salafi-jihadi militants throughout the country. Security forces killed or captured TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) militants in Punjab Province, Sindh Province, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province on December 8-9.

Outlook: The TTP will attack Pakistani security targets in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.

SecurityPolitical and military tensions remained high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Indian security forces clashed with protesters in Arwani, Kashmir during a search operation targeting Pakistani militants on December 8. The Kashmir crisis is impacting Indian-Pakistani relations in other spheres, including water-sharing. The World Bank paused arbitration over two dams under construction in India, citing the risk that contradictory outcomes from opposing suits would jeopardize the Indus Waters Treaty. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has threatened to block the flow of water from India to Pakistan due to the hostilities in Kashmir.

Outlook: High-level Indian and Pakistani officials may hold talks with Kashmiri separatist leaders in order to de-escalate the conflict.

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GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

PoliticalThe al Houthi-Saleh alliance is showing signs of political division between former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and the al Houthi Ansar Allah party. Saleh criticized the al Houthi party for blocking members of his political party from positions in the alliance’s new government. Saleh’s nephew expressed support for Russian involvement in Yemen’s peace process. Saleh has offered Russia access to Yemeni bases in exchange for counterterrorism support, while al Houthi leadership has rejected foreign basing in Yemen. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi rejected a UN-brokered roadmap in an effort to maintain his executive authority.

Outlook: Leadership tensions will not impact al Houthi-Saleh ground operations in the near term.

SecurityTaiz, Yemen’s third largest city, remains contested. Al Houthi-Saleh forces may be attempting to drive the fighting away western fronts that threaten their control over strategic mountains overlooking Taiz city. Hadi government forces seized and defended terrain to the north and south of Taiz city.

Outlook: The Taiz fight will remain deadlocked.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS may be resuming a campaign of suicide attacks designed to deter Yemenis from joining local security forces. ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan conducted a suicide attack that killed 50 troops gathered at a base near Aden on December 12. ISIS last conducted a high-casualty explosive attack in Aden in August 2016. AQAP supports ISIS’s efforts to degrade security forces in Aden. AQAP uses local businesses and tribal networks in southern Yemen to mask financial transactions that support its operations. AQAP is also strengthening its relationships with tribes in central Yemen by delivering battlefield successes against al Houthi-Saleh forces.

Outlook: ISIS may resume monthly explosive attacks on security forces in Aden.

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 06 DEC: AQAP militants detonated two IEDs in Ibb.2) 06, 11 DEC: Hadi government forces repelled al Houthi-Saleh attacks in eastern Taiz city.3) 08 DEC: Hadi government forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Kirsh, Lahij.4) 10 DEC: ISIS conducted a SVEST attack targeting security forces near Aden City. 5) 12 DEC: AQAP militants retook Mount Kasad from al Houthi-Saleh forces in al Bayda.

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PoliticalSomali officials are rejecting the international community’s efforts to curb warlordism in Somalia’s electoral process. A regional government rejected international pleas to disqualify a candidate whose gunmen opened fire at a polling place. A former interior minister accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of manipulating electoral bodies to win re-election. A government body aligned with President Mohamud declared December 28 the new date of the presidential contest, bypassing the federal electoral body and giving credence to claims that President Mohamud is misusing his influence.

Outlook: President Mohamud will probably win re-election.

Security U.S. forces resumed advising and assisting Somali and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) special operations forces (SOF) in southern Somalia. U.S.-backed operations ceased for nearly two months following a botched U.S. airstrike in Galgudud region on September 28. U.S.-backed forces raided an al Shabaab training camp following airstrikes in Torotorow, Lower Shabelle region on December 6. Likely U.S. forces also backed a raid on an al Shabaab training camp and improvised explosive device (IED) factory in Caba area, Lower Jubba region on December 10.

Outlook: U.S.-backed raids will occur on an approximately monthly basis in southern Somalia.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab may be renewing an attack campaign in Mogadishu in advance of elections. An al Shabaab militant detonated a suicide-vehicle borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) that killed 29 individuals and wounded almost 50 others at Mogadishu’s main port on December 11. Al Shabaab may also be setting conditions to attack eastern Kenya and major urban centers in Somalia. Al Shabaab launched multiple IED attacks in Mogadishu, targeted strategically important towns in southern Somalia, and conducted attacks along the Somali-Kenyan border region within the past week.

Outlook: Al Shabaab may begin trying to recapture urban centers it has controlled in the past, such as Marka or Barawe.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 08-09 DEC: SNA and al Shabaab forces traded control of Goof Gaduud, Bay region. 2) 10 DEC: Likely-U.S. forces backed SNA and AMISOM forces to raid an al Shabaab training camp in Caba, Lower Jubba region.3) 11 DEC: Al Shabaab detonated a SVBIED near a port in Mogadishu.4) 11 DEC: Al Shabaab briefly seized El Wak, Gedo region. 5) 11 DEC: Suspected al Shabaab militants attacked a restaurant with grenades in Kismayo, Lower Jubba region.

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PoliticalThe Government of National Accord (GNA) is laying the groundwork for its 2017 budget and a new monetary policy aiming to solve the liquidity crisis and resulting unrest in Tripoli. The GNA and the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) will announce a joint economic plan this month. The CBL will likely continue withholding funds from the GNA despite the deal.

Outlook: The GNA will prioritize paying security forces with its limited funds, furthering criticism that it cannot improve Libyans’ economic opportunities.

SecurityGNA leadership is fracturing over military objectives. A coalition of Islamist and tribal militias whose leadership includes the GNA’s Minister of Defense launched an offensive on oil terminals held by the Libyan National army (LNA) on December 7. The GNA’s Presidency Council rejected the attack. The LNA repelled the offensive and bombed the rival coalition’s base, killing several field commanders.

Outlook: The LNA’s growing power in Benghazi and the oil crescent will continue to spark unrest in eastern and central Libya as rival militias and Salafi-jihadi groups push back.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS militants are dispersing throughout Libya after losing their former stronghold in Sirte. Libyan forces suffered high casualties during the Sirte campaign and will prioritize securing their objectives in Libya’s capital and oil regions over sustained counter-ISIS operations in Libya’s interior. ISIS militants ousted from eastern Libya in early 2016 may be redeploying east after the loss of Sirte.

Outlook: ISIS militants will continue explosive attacks on GNA-allied forces from the west of Sirte. ISIS may build up forces in southwestern Libya to create a new foothold or prepare for a counterattack on GNA-allied forces.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

01) 07-10 DEC: An LNA counterattack killed 67 fighters from an anti-LNA coalition in Ben Jawad, al Nafawliya, al Sidra and al Jufra airbase. 02) 07 DEC: ISIS ambushed three GNA-allied vehicles on the coastal road west of Sirte city. 03) 08 DEC: The LNA’s 12th Infantry Brigade occupied Brak al Shatti military base. 04) 09 DEC: ISIS conducted an SVBIED attack in Qar Yunis, Benghazi and launched several mortars on the LNA in Bousnib, Benghazi.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebAn influx of Tunisian foreign fighters returning home risks overwhelming Tunisia’s security forces. Tunisian security forces broke up two networks linked to foreign fighters near Tunis on December 7 and December 11. Tunisian President Essebsi recently warned that Tunisia is not capable of detaining all returning fighters. The Tunisian Army is targeting AQIM and likely ISIS militants encamped in the mountains of western Tunisia, possibly with support from U.S surveillance aircraft. The Tunisian Army shelled a militant position on Mount Ouargha in Kef Governorate after AQIM’s Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade detonated a landmine that injured three soldiers.

Outlook: A surge in returning foreign fighters may force Tunisia to divert resources away from counterinsurgency operations in its border regions, where multiple Salafi-jihadi militant groups operate.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)Ansar al Din followed through with its threat to break out prisoners held by Malian forces. The Macina Liberation Front, an Ansar al Din affiliate, attacked a prison in Niono, central Mali, on December 6, freeing all 93 detainees and injuring two guards. Ansar al Din decommissioned four French and MINUSMA vehicles with landmines this week in eastern Mali, continuing a steady tempo of low-level attacks.

Both factions of Boko Haram retain operational capability despite territorial losses. Two female suicide bombers from the faction led by Abu Bakr Shekau detonated SVESTs on opposite ends of the Friday market in Madagali, Adamawa State, Nigeria on December 9, killing 56 civilians and wounding 177 others. Nigerian President Muhammdu Buhari maintained that the attack was Boko Haram’s “death rattle.” However, militants loyal to Shekau carried out an additional SVEST attack in Maiduguri, Borno State, on December 11. The faction led by ISIS-recognized Abu Musab al Barnawi killed a Nigerian Lieutenant Colonel on December 13, indicating a possible campaign targeting officers following three similar attacks.

Outlook: Ansar al Din will continue to target prisons to gain additional fighters and destabilize Mali. Shekau’s Boko Haram faction will target civilians in cities to maintain an appearance of strength in lieu of lost territory.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 07 DEC: Tunisian security forces broke up a network that supported foreign fighter returnees in Ariana, Tunisia.2) 11 DEC: Tunisian security forces discovered a support network with ties to ISIS in Syria in Bizerte, Tunisia.3) 12 DEC: The Tunisian National Guard arrested three ISIS members recently returned from Syria in Monastir, Tunisia.4) 11 DEC: An Uqba ibn Nafa’a landmine exploded and injured three Tunisian soldiers near Kef City, Tunisia.

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1) 06 DEC: The Macina Liberation Front freed 93 prisoners in Niono, Segou Region, Mali.2) 09 DEC: A Boko Haram-Shekau SVEST attack killed 56 people in Madagali, Adamawa State, Nigeria.3) 12 DEC Ansar al Din destroyed a MINUSMA vehicle near Gossi, Timbuktu Region, Mali.4) 13 DEC: Boko Haram-Barnawi killed a Nigerian Army Lieutenant Colonel in an ambush near Damasak, Borno State, Nigeria.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569