2019 q3 auto sales conference call...ytd 12.9 12.7f-1.6% a lot must happen in q4 to reach our 16.8...
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2019 Q3 AUTO SALES CONFERENCE CALLSeptember 26, 2019
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ECONOMICCONDITIONSQ3 2019
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Overall Economy GDP Growth2.2%
(Q3 NY Fed Nowcast)
2.0% (Q2 ’19)
2.9% (Q3 ’18)
Employment
Conditions
U3 Unemployment
Rate
3.7%
(Aug ‘19)3.7% (Sep ’18)
Buyer ConfidenceUofM Consumer
Sentiment
92.0
(Sep ‘19 Early)
89.8 (Aug ’19)
100.1 (Sep ’18)
WagesEarnings
Growth
3.2%
(Aug ‘19)
3.3% (Jul ’19)
3.2% (Aug ’18)
Buyer AbilityDisposable
Income Y/Y
4.5%
(Jul ’19)
6.1%
(2018)
3Source: IRS
OUR ECONOMY: Livin’ On a Prayer
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Auto Finance Equifax$1,260T
(Aug ’19)
$1,221T
(Sep ’18)
Interest RatesTarget Fed
Funds Rate
1.75 -2.00%
(Sep ’19)
2.00 -2.25%
(Sep ’18)
Borrowing CostsAvg Rate
New Auto Loan
5.82%
(Aug ’19)
5.90%
(Sep ’18)
Ownership CostsRetail Unleaded
Gasoline Price
$2.66
(Sep ’19)
$2.88
(Sep ’18)
4Source: IRS
OUR ECONOMY: Livin’ On a Prayer
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Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index Q3 2019 5Source: IRS
DEALER SENTIMENT: Overall Market Conditions in Q3
Strong
Weak
48
45
46
49
51 51
44
48
49
48
54
55
54
55
56
59
51
50
54
56
46
42
43
47
50
48
42
47
48
46
Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Overall Franchise Independent
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Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index Q3 2019 6Source: IRS
DEALER SENTIMENT: New Vehicle Sales Q3
Good
Poor
57 57
61
65
59
60
57
53
54
55
57 57
61
65
59
60
57
53
54
55
Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Overall Franchise
Note: Scale 1 - 100
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Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index Q3 2019 7Source: IRS
DEALER SENTIMENT: Overall Market Next 3 Months
Good
Poor
Note: Scale 1 - 100
55
5253
70
5657
49
63
55
51
64
57 57
73
69
61
54
62 62
57
5251
52
70
52
55
47
63
52
49
Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Overall Franchise Independent
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VEHICLE SALESAND FORECAST
8
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17.1 m
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
15,000,000
15,500,000
16,000,000
16,500,000
17,000,000
17,500,000
18,000,000J
an
-20
14
Ja
n-2
015
Ja
n-2
016
Ja
n-2
017
Jan
-2018
Ja
n-2
019
US Light Vehicle Sales (moving 12 month total)
Light Vehicle Sales 12m Annual Change
Peak: April 2016
Election: Nov 2016
Tax Reform: Dec 2017
U.S. SALES GROWTH: Contracting After Tax Reform Sugar High
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10
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan
-20
14
Jan
-20
15
Jan
-20
16
Jan
-20
17
Jan
-20
18
Jan
-20
19
Registrations Growth By Sales Channel (annual change)
Rental Fleet 12m% Dealer/OEM Fleet 12m%
Retail Lease 12m% Retail Purchase 12m%
U.S. SALES CHANNEL: Fleet Providing Sales Support
Tax Reform
Dec 2017
Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS vehicle registrations data
Low
Aug 2017
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New Market FleetRetail
PurchaseRetail Lease
2018 0.5% 4.3% -0.4% -0.2%
2019January Forecast
-2.4% 4.0% -3.5% -4.6%
YTD -1.6% 9.1% -4.7% -2.0%
Tax Reform
Vehicle Affordability
Residual Values
Cox Automotive
Sales Forecast
2019 = 16.8 million
2020 = 16.5 million
U.S. SALES YTD: Likely To Beat Our Forecast, Helped By Fleet
Source: Cox Automotive analysis of BEA and IHS vehicle registrations data
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U.S. SALES YTD: September Will Be Down Due To Sales Calendar
Month Sept-18 Sept-19 YOY Aug-19MOM
Change
Sales
Millions1.44 1.25 -14% 1.65 -24%
Selling Day 25 23 28
Quarter 2018 2019 Change
Sales Q1 4.1 4.0 -3.1%
Q2 4.5 4.4 -1.3%
Q3 4.3 4.3F -0.4%
Q4 4.4 4.1F -6.0%
Year 17.3 16.8F -2.4%
YTD 12.9 12.7F -1.6%
A Lot Must Happen In Q4 To
Reach Our 16.8 Million
Forecast
Pace of sales decline expected
to increase in Q4 – credit
tightening, less fleet, rising
recession fears all reduce
volume
Additional Threats
Oil price spike
Prolonged GM Strike
Aggressive Incentive Pricing
Trump Tariffs: China and EU
Impeachment: Impact Unknown
Source: Cox Automotive analysis
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16.0
16.2
16.4
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.2
17.4
17.6
17.8
18.0
Jan
-20
18
Feb
-20
18
Mar
-20
18
Ap
r-2
018
May
-20
18
Jun
-20
18
Jul-
20
18
Au
g-2
018
Sep
-20
18
Oct
-20
18
No
v-20
18
Dec
-20
18
Jan
-20
19
Feb
-20
19
Mar
-20
19
Ap
r-2
019
May
-20
19
Jun
-20
19
Jul-
20
19
Au
g-2
019
Sep
-20
19
New Light Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (Millions)
U.S. SALES SAAR: Volatility Likely To Continue After Short Respite
16.9m F
Source: Cox Automotive analysis or BEA/Wards sales
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SEPTEMBER & Q3 YTD: Cox Automotive Forecast
September 2019 Cox Automotive Industry Insights Forecast; all historical data from OEM sales announcements
Note: Total includes brands not shown. GM and Ford monthly sales are estimated
Cox Automotive Forecast: September Auto Sales to Fall Significantly For Everyone
14Source: Cox Automotive analysis Kelley Blue Book sales
Sep‘19 Sep‘18 YOY% Q3'19 Q3'18 YOY% Jan–Sep ‘19 Jan–Sep ‘18 YOY%
GM 213,000 235,000* -9.7% 736,507 694,054 6.1% 2,145,828 2,167,468 -1.0%
Ford Motor Co 170,000 196,000* -13.5% 572,673 606,939 -5.6% 1,804,127 1,878,653 -4.0%
Toyota Motor Co 175,000 203,098 -13.8% 632,538 634,923 -0.4% 1,783,243 1,824,232 -2.2%
FCA Group 165,000 199,819 -17.4% 550,450 564,507 -2.5% 1,646,560 1,679,983 -2.0%
American Honda 125,000 132,668 -5.8% 440,289 419,173 5.0% 1,217,284 1,206,997 0.9%
Nissan NA 95,000 122,819 -22.7% 321,110 343,987 -6.7% 1,038,146 1,124,682 -7.7%
Hyundai Kia 100,000 108,862 -8.1% 338,555 325,132 4.1% 986,351 953,744 3.4%
Subaru 54,000 57,004 -5.3% 188,145 180,558 4.2% 527,671 503,418 4.8%
VW 47,000 55,007 -14.6% 164,093 166,013 -1.2% 480,398 476,274 0.9%
Grand Total 1,250,000 1,448,309 -13.7% 4,297,675 4,316,731 -0.4% 12,726,918 12,931,991 -1.6%
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BRAND SHARE GAINS: Ram Wins Big, Chevy Declines
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
YTD 2019 Market Share Gain From CY 2018
Source: Cox Automotive analysis Kelley Blue Book sales
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-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Share Of Rental Fleet Activity (Difference YTD 2019 vs 2018) Top and Bottom Five Brands
Source: Cox Automotive analysis Kelley Blue Book sales
SHARE OF RENTAL: Ford Increasing, Chevy Pulls Back
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-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
YTD 2019 Market Share Gain From CY 2018
Source: Cox Automotive analysis Kelley Blue Book sales
LUXURY SHARE GAINS: “Value Luxury” Seems To Be Winning
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SEGMENT SHARE: Cars Continue To Lose Share To Crossovers
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
YTD 2019 Market Share Gain From CY 2018
Source: Cox Automotive analysis Kelley Blue Book sales
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THEROADAHEAD
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THE ROAD AHEAD: A Highly EVENTFUL Calendar
• Fed meetings on October 30 and December 11
• Section 232 Action on EU and Japan Deadline November 18
• Brexit October 31 (or not)
• Congressional debate on USMCA
• Ongoing NHSTA / EPA battle, multiple moves in Q4
• UAW Contract Negotiations Across all 3 Detroit Companies
The political landscape:
• Impeachment hearings
• Middle East / Fuel Prices
• Election Season
Dependence on Q4 to reach 17 million again
New and used price trends far less favorable
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FIVE TAKEAWAYS: September Year To Date 2019
MONETARY POLICY
& THE ECONOMY
CREDIT
CRUNCHRETAIL
USED MARKET
TARIFF
THREATTHERE ARE
STILL WINNERS
The Git Up
Blanco Brown
Subaru Crosstrek XV
Hobo Johnsen
Never Really Over
Katy Perry
Stay High
Brittany HowardOne Thing Right
Marshmello,
Kane Brow
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Q&A
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Contact Information:
Dara Hailes
Manager, Public Relations
Cox Automotive
Mark Schirmer
Director, Public Relations
Cox Automotive