29534917 berth kuliah pelabuhan maritim bu erika i
TRANSCRIPT
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CARGO FORECASTING
TECHNIQUESErika Buchari
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INTRODUCTION
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GENERAL OVERVIEW OF PORT ENGINEERING
Traffic Forecast
Terminal Capacity
1. Connection to Hinterland
2. Handling Equipment
3. Land Area Requirement
4. No. of Berths & Length
Concept of Terminal
Layout
(Land Use)
Ship types &
Dimensions
1. BerthingSpeed
2. Draught, Beam & Length
3. Ship Manoeuvradility
1. Turning Basins
2. Accsess Channels
3. Berthing & Mooring Load
Sum of Nautical
Requirements
1. Optimal Port Level
2. Optimal Location of Berths
3. Optimal Location of Breakwaters
4. Optimal Layout of Access Channels
1. Preliminary design2. Detail Design
BASIC DESIGN DATA & DATA
SURVEY :
- Geotechnical data
- Meteorological & Hidrographical
data
- Geological data
- Sea bottom character
- Sea Morphology
- Topographical data- Tidal data
- Wind data
- Wave propogation
- Other constraints
RESULTS :
- Desaign parameters & loads
- Mathematical model
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GROWING DEMAND
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Each transportation mode requiresspace for:
Access to the port area,
A place to parktransportation units,
both full and empty, A place to service the
units,
A place to load/unloadthe units,
A place to store loads inkeeping withtransportationarrival/departure rates.
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FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
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TRAFFIC FORECASTING
The essence of port traffic foresting :
What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?
How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?
What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?
The most useful control statistic to each terminal :
The total tonnage handled
The average ship turn-round time
The average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship
The volume of traffic
The % of ship using cranes or ramps
The average ship length
The maximum draught
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Trend of Traffic:
The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic
has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will
continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.
In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be
one of the following:
a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP;b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been
deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national self-
sufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new
industry or of mines);
c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production orconsumption is occurring;
d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring
(from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to
overland transport, etc.).
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FORECASTING PROCEDURE
1. Analyze past traffic
1.1. Define route, etc.
1.2. Choose cargo classification
1.3. Tabulate
1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes
1.5. Extract seasonal effects
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2. Review market influences on traffic
and technological trends
2.1. Survey shippers opinions
(public and private)
2.2. Survey shipping companies plans
3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates
3.1. GNP- linked cargoes
3.2. Special cargoes
3.3. Regional/hinterland trends
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4. Investigate expected traffic-influencing
events
4.1. Industry plans
4.2. Agriculture plans
4.3. Transport links/transit policies
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5. Combine all information into alternative
growth and technology scenarios
5.1. Identify principal scenario themes
5.2. Combine all data for each theme
5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies
5.4. Write scenarios
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6. For each scenario, tabulate annual
forecast in each traffic class
6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)
6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships
6.3 Seasonal effects
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Define routes
Choose cargo
classes
Analyse
traffic records
Past trendsand
their causes
Past seasonal
effects
Consult
national
planners
Consult
industry
planners
Theoretical
future trends
Economic
indicators
Industri
targets
Probable
futuretraffic
Scenario
A
Scenario
B
Scenario
C
Annual
forecasttables
Future traffic events
Tonnages, technologyMarket survey
ShippersShipping
componies
FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE
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Collect latest
handling figures
and update anypast trends
Check with industry
planners for anyrecent changes
Check with port
users latest opinions
Deduce upper and
lower traffic growthrates
Tabulate high and
low forecasts forthe whole life of
the investment
Check that the
specific traffic
for which the
investment isproposed fits into
the overall plan
for the zone / terminal
13
4
5 6
2
FIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTING PROCEDURE
Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investments
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RECORDING OF TRAFFICDENSITIES-CARGO VOLUMES
The recording of traffic densities and cargo volumes shouldgive a detailed account of Cargo and passenger handling
by day of week, hour of day, Mode of transportation to and
from the port, for the following:
Oceangoing tramp ships
Foreign liner ships Domestic liner ships
Ferries
Trucks
Buses Railway
Possibly aircraft
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The annual turnover in the port should be if
possible be subdivided into the following
categories:
Bulk/general cargo
Trans-shipment ship/ship
Trans-shipment ship/rail
Goods carried by coastal
ships/tramps
Goods/general cargo
handled at terminal
Storage time
Type of storage
Customs clearance
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Commodities should be described in detail :
Type of cargo
Present and potential cargo
tonnage and volume
Frequency of cargo arrival
Origin and destination of cargo
Times of loading and discharging
Space requirements for cargo
Cargo handling rate/time of
storage
Commodity classification
Cargo handling operations
analysis
Storage requirements (cold and
warm)
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It is essential to specify if the goodsrequire special handling equipment, such
as ;
Loading and unloading equipment.
Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).
Fork lift truck requirement.
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Groups of goods
1. Agricultural products
2. Coal, other solid material fuels
3. Petroleum and petroleum products
4. Ore and waste of ore and steel
5. Metal products
6. Cement, building materials
7. Chemicals, fertilizers
8. Machinery, manufactured articles
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Classical cargoes
Liquid and dry bulk cargoes
1. Building materials
2. Petroleum and derivatives3. Ores
4. Chemicals
5. Fertilizers, etc
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Traffic by ship:
The conveyors for freight flow to move by the waterway are the
ships. The movement of the ships makes up the traffic on the
waterway one of the specialties for the waterway traffic modeling
is that there are great differences in the conveyors dimensions.
The deadweight tonnage of the ships in Belgium varies from 250
tons to 9000 tons. It is interested to know the percentage of thefreights transported by the ships with various deadweight
tonnage.
Some following figure show the traffic volume with the indices of:
number of trips
ship sailing distance
tonnage moved
ton. Km
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Selected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft
454,0001500935195302,0001000926175
Galons*)Capacity (tons)Liquid Cargo
(Tank) Barges
1500935195
1000926175
Capacity (tons)Covered Dry
cargo Barges
3000950290
1500930195
350926175Capacity (tons)Open HopperBarges
13501240130
10001138120
35093090
Capacity (tons)Scows
191036366
101040257
Capacity Railroad carsCarfloats1200835195
900730130
350626110
Capacity (tons)Deck barges
2000 to 450014 to 1530 to 34125 to 150
1200 to 350012 to 1425 to 3095 to 105
800 to 120010 to 112490
350 to 650821 to 2365 to 80
HorsepowerTugboats 4000 to 60008.640160
2000 to 4000834142
1000 to 20007.630117
HorsepowerTowboat
Draft (ft)Breadth (ft)Length
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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS
1. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine
the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basisgoing back for at least three years. List the major cargos handled
in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or
discharge, and by major cargo class?
2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the
identification of the potential users and the transport being used
for the various commodities?
3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?
4. Port A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of
100,000 and 40,000 units per year respectively. When both ports
are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the
standard level of quayside activity associated with its own
hinterland traffic. In case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at
port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. In case
(c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level
of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder
services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).
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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS
5. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that
affect the traffic forecast?
6. For estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the
ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, whatare the important items should be considered?
7. What should or should not be done in helping people to
carry out their own forecasting?
TABLE
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TABLE
SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1985)
Import (a)( in thousand tons )
Origin Country
South West Europe South East Asia Japan
AmericaNorw
egiaSwedia
Holland
German
British
French
Total Malaysia
Singapure
Indonesia
Philipine
Total
Liquid Bulk-CPO-Petroleum product-Sulphur (b)-Vegetable oilDry Bulk-Bricks-Iron Seed-Sulphur (b)-Cement (s)-Grains
-Others
Containers Load dan ro/ro (c)-Celular Ship-Conventional Ship-Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load-Palletized Tin-Iron and steel product-Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk-Sacked Wheat-Sacked Cement
-Sacked Fertilizer-Fresh Fruit-Vehicles-Machinery-General Cargo
(a) Main Comm odit ies figu red is the ones that need separate estimation in single po rt. (The list is not complete)
(b) Those comm odit ies should be div ided into di f ferent traff ic category according to transpor t mode
(c) ISO Containers and Ro /ro shou ld be Noted in ton and TEUs
TABLE
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SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS
Import (a)( in thousand tons )
Scenario A Scenario B
1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000 1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000
Liquid Bulk- CPO- Petroleum product- Sulphur (b)- Vegetable oilDry Bulk- Bricks- Iron Seed- Sulphur (b)- Cement (s)- Grains- Others
Containers Load dan ro/ro (c)- Celular Ship- Conventional Ship- Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load- Palletized Tin- Iron and steel product- Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk- Sacked Wheat
- Sacked Cement- Sacked Fertilizer- Fresh Fruit- Vehicles- Machinery- General Cargo
(a) Main Comm odit ies figu red is the ones that need separate estimation in s ingle port. (The list is not c omplete)
(b) Those comm odit ies should be div ided into di f ferent traff ic category according to transpor t mode
(c) ISO Containers and Ro /ro shou ld be Noted in ton and TEUs
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EXAMPLE
REGRESION LINE
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Example:From 8 zone, it is known the trip production per day (Y)and ships (X) as shown in the table.
No of Zone Trip Production per dayThe number of ships
available
1 500 200
2 300 50
3 1300 500
4 200 100
5 400 100
6 1200 100
7 900 300
8 1000 400
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Find Regression Model, by least square Method in order toget prediction the Y and X ?Solution :
XY X2 XY
200 500 40000 100000
50 300 2500 15000
500 1300 250000 650000
100 200 10000 20000
100 400 10000 40000
100 1200 10000 120000
300 900 90000 270000
400 1000 160000 400000
1750 5800 572500 1615000
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Formula for Least Square Method to find the best fit line ofRegression line.
( )22
2
XXn
XY
X
Y
X
A
-
-=
( )( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) 323,717505725008
161500017505800572500
A 2=
-
-=
( )
-
-=
22X
X
n
YXXYnB
1.825(1750)(572500)8
(5800)(1750)(1615000)8B
2=
-
-=
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Y = A + BX
Y = 323,7 + 1,825X
Then,Regression line is :
regresion line
y = 0.2716x + 21.863
R2
= 0.4957
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 500 1000 1500
trip production
No
ofShip
Series1
Linear (Series1)
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thankyou