2q16 conference call presentation

19
2Q16 Earnings Results July 27, 2016

Upload: bladex

Post on 23-Jan-2017

3.026 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

2Q16 Earnings Results July 27, 2016

Color

Scheme

234 93 46

109 179 63

235 235 235

0 75 141

253 185 36

Accent

Color

31 179 179

192 0 0

Page 2: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

“This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions established

by the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties.

The forward-looking statements in this presentation reflect the expectations of the Bank’s management and are based on currently

available data; however, actual experience with respect to these factors is subject to future events and uncertainties, which could

materially impact the Bank’s expectations. A number of factors could cause actual performance and results to differ materially from

those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the anticipated growth of the Bank’s

credit portfolio, including its trade finance portfolio; the continuation of the Bank’s preferred creditor status; the impact of increasing

interest rates and of the macroeconomic environment in the Region on the Bank’s financial condition; the execution of the Bank’s

strategies and initiatives, including its revenue diversification strategy; the adequacy of the Bank’s allowance for credit losses; the

need for additional provisions for credit losses; the Bank’s ability to achieve future growth, the Bank’s ability to reduce its liquidity

levels and increase its leverage; the Bank’s ability to maintain its investment-grade credit ratings; the availability and mix of future

sources of funding for the Bank’s lending operations; potential trading losses; the possibility of fraud; and the adequacy of the

Bank’s sources of liquidity to replace large deposit withdrawals.”

2

Page 3: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Year to date Review

3

Solid business performance in a very challenging quarter Total quarterly credit disbursements up $0.4B QoQ to reach $2.9B

Stable net margins at above 2% NIM

Top revenues increased by 15% YoY

Adjusted EPS up by 15% YoY

Asset quality remains strong in volatile environment Increase in credit provisions to address isolated cases undergoing restructuring & one-off

recovery efforts

Improved credit portfolio mix continuing shift towards short term trade finance

Solid performance of our syndications platform Executed five new deals in Q2, plus one more in early Q3; pipeline remains solid

Positive outlook for the remainder of the year Economic performance stabilizing in Latin American economies

Portfolio growth @ approx. 3% for 2016

Stable NIM @ approx. 2%

Non-core items no longer affecting results

Page 4: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Key Financial Metrics

(1) Non-Core Items includes the net results from the participations of the investment funds recorded in the “gain (loss) per financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss” line item and other income and other

expenses related to investment funds.

(2) Adjusted EPS corresponds to earnings per share excluding Non-Core Items.

4

Quarterly Results Year to Date Results

(In US$ million, except percentages) 2Q16 1Q16 2Q15 QoQ YoY 6M16 6M15 YoY

Business Profit $22.1 $28.1 $16.0 -22% 38% $50.2 $43.4 15%

Non-Core Items (1) 0.2 (4.7) (2.5) n.m. n.m. (4.4) (0.0) n.m.

Profit for the period $22.3 $23.4 $13.5 -5% 65% $45.7 $43.4 5%

EPS (US$) $0.57 $0.60 $0.35 -5% 64% $1.17 $1.12 5%

Adjusted EPS (US$) (2) $0.56 $0.72 $0.41 -22% 37% $1.28 $1.12 15%

Return on Average Equity ("ROAE") 9.1% 9.6% 5.8% -6% 57% 9.4% 9.4% 0%

Business Return on Average Equity ("Business ROAE") 9.0% 11.6% 6.8% -22% 31% 10.3% 9.4% 10%

Return on Average Assets (ROAA) 1.20% 1.22% 0.70% -1% 72% 1.21% 1.11% 9%

Busines Return on Assets ("Business ROAA") 1.19% 1.46% 0.83% -19% 44% 1.33% 1.11% 19%

Net Interest Margin ("NIM") 2.06% 2.06% 1.79% 0% 15% 2.06% 1.82% 13%

Net Interest Spread ("NIS") 1.83% 1.85% 1.63% -1% 12% 1.84% 1.66% 11%

Loan Portfolio 6,520 6,533 6,920 0% -6% 6,520 6,920 -6%

Commercial Portfolio 6,767 6,914 7,411 -2% -9% 6,767 7,411 -9%

Total Allowance for expected credit losses on loans at amortized cost and off-balance

sheet credit risk 1.60% 1.40% 1.30% 14% 23% 1.60% 1.30% 23%

Non-Performing Loans to Gross Loan Portfolio (%) 1.30% 0.43% 0.30% 203% 333% 1.30% 0.30% 333%

Total Allowance for expected credit losses on loans at amortized cost and off-balance

sheet credit risk to Non-Performing Loans (x times) 1.3 3.4 4.7 -63% -73% 1.3 4.7 -73%

Efficiency Ratio 23% 33% 35% -32% -35% 28% 33% -16%

Business Efficiency Ratio 22% 30% 33% -24% -32% 26% 33% -22%

Market Capitalization 1,036 945 1,254 10% -17% 1,036 1,254 -17%

Assets 7,634 7,670 8,301 0% -8% 7,634 8,301 -8%

Tier 1 Capital Ratio Basel III 15.6% 15.9% 16.0% -2% -3% 15.6% 16.0% -3%

Leverage (times) 7.7 7.8 8.8 -1% -12% 7.7 8.8 -12%

"n.m.": not meaningful.

(*) End-of-period balances.

Results

Performance

Portfolio Quality (*)

Efficiency

Scale &

Capitalization (*)

Page 5: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Financial Performance Overview

2Q16

5

Net Profit • Net Profit QoQ decrease on higher allowance for loan losses, which offset

combined effects of increased fees and other income, and lower operating

expenses

• Net Interest Income QoQ decrease on lower average lending balances

• Net Interest Margin – NIM stable at 2.06% on higher lending spreads which

offset the effect of lower average earning assets (-3% QoQ, -3% YoY)

• Fees & Other Income increased from successful completion of five

syndicated transactions and higher net gain on sale of loans and other

income, as income from letters of credit business remained stable QoQ.

Robust pipeline of mandated transactions for the remainder of the year

• End-of-period Commercial Portfolio and quarterly average balances

both stood at $6.8 billion (-2% QoQ EOP & -3% QoQ AVG) on exposure

reductions in Brazil and parts of Central America & Caribbean, and by

unexpected prepayments largely offsetting increased disbursements

• Allowance for loan losses, investment securities impairment and off-

balance sheet items increased $10.8 million QoQ reflecting one-off

impairment and ongoing restructuring efforts in a few closely monitored

exposures. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) increased to $84.7 million (NPL to

gross loans portfolio ratio of 1.30%), partially mitigated by improved risk

profile of remaining portfolio

• Efficiency level improved to 23% from 33% on increase income (+20%) and

decreased expenses (-19%) on lower performance-based compensation

expense

• Board declared $0.385 quarterly dividends per share, unchanged from

prior quarter, as business outlook remains robust

$22.3

million

-5.0% QoQ (2Q16/1Q16)

+65% YoY (2Q16/2Q15)

$38.2

million

Net Interest Income

Fees & Other Income

$5.3

million

Reserve Coverage Ratio

-3% QoQ (2Q16/1Q16)

+10% YoY (2Q16/2Q15)

+87% QoQ (2Q16/1Q16)

+43% YoY (2Q16/2Q15)

1.60% +20 bps QoQ (2Q16/1Q16)

+30 bps YoY (2Q16/2Q15)

Net Interest Margin

2.06% Stable QoQ (2Q16/1Q16)

+27 bps YoY (2Q16/2Q15)

Page 6: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Net Profit Evolution &

Quality of Earnings - QoQ

• QoQ Net Profit decrease on net effect of

increased provisions for impairment loss

from expected credit losses on loans, off-

balance sheet credit risk & investment

securities portfolio, offsetting positive

effects from higher fees and other

income, miscellaneous income, non-core

items, and lower operating expenses

• Non-core items (+$4.9 million) reflect

significant reduction of exposure to

market risk as participation in investment

funds was fully redeemed during 2Q16

• YoY Net Profit variation of +$8.8 million

(+65%) mainly on increased net interest

income, fees and other income and

miscellaneous income, reduced operating

expenses, offsetting provisions for

impairment loss from expected credit

losses

6 (*) Miscellaneous Income includes the following line items of the Consolidated statements of profit or loss: Derivate financial

instruments and foreign currency exchange, Gain (loss) per financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss, and Gain

(loss) per financial instrument at fair value through Other Comprehensive Income.

Page 7: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Financial Performance Overview

6M16

7

• YTD Net Profit YoY increase from higher net interest income,

increased fees & other income, and lower operating expenses, which

compensated the effect non-core losses from the participation in

investment funds and higher provisions for impairment from expected

credit losses

• Net Interest Income increased on higher Net Interest Margin

reflecting increased net lending spreads and market rates, offsetting

lower average interest earning assets (-3%)

• Fees & Other Income increased mainly as five syndicated

transactions were competed during 2Q16, compared to nil in the

comparison period

• Efficiency Ratio improved to 28% from 33% on expense reductions

and lower performance-based compensation expense

Net Profit

$45.7

million +5% YoY (6M16/6M15)

$77.7

million

Net Interest Income

Fees & Other Income

$8.1

million

+10% YoY (6M16/6M15)

+26% YoY (6M16/6M15)

Net Interest Margin

2.06%

Efficiency Ratio

28% -5 ppts YoY (6M16/6M15)

+24 bps YoY (6M16/6M15)

(*) Miscellaneous Income includes the following line items of the Consolidated statements of profit or loss: Derivate financial

instruments and foreign currency exchange, Gain (loss) per financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss, and Gain

(loss) per financial instrument at fair value through Other Comprehensive Income.

Page 8: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Net Interest Income (NII) &

Net Interest Margin (NIM)

• Higher market rates and lending spreads as interest-earning assets continued to re-price, more

than offset the effects of lower average loan lending balances (-2% QoQ and -3% YoY), and

higher cost of funds from the re-pricing of liabilities due to increased market rates (+9 pbs QoQ

and +33 bps YoY)

• NIM expansion stabilized at strong levels, reaching 2.06% for the 2Q16 and 6M16, unchanged

QoQ, and significantly stronger (+27 bps) when compared to 2Q15

• 10% YoY increase in Net Interest Income on higher NIM (+24 pbs YoY), reflecting increased net

lending spreads and market rates, offsetting lower loan portfolio average balances (-3%)

8

Page 9: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Re-balancing of Commercial

Portfolio

• Rebalancing portfolio profile:

• Focus on short-term trade

• Reduction of certain countries/sectors/client

concentrations

9

Page 10: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Commercial Portfolio Exposure

By Industry

• Widely diversified exposure profile across

industrial sectors

10

Regional Exposure by Industry as of June 30, 2016

Page 11: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Commercial Portfolio –

Brazil Exposure Update

11

• Selective de-risking

continues as some

commodity fundamentals

show signs of

stabilization

Page 12: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Upstream Integrated Downstream

Clients primarily focused on:

Exploration

Production

Clients focused on:

Full Value chain, from

Upstream to

Downstream

Clients primarily focused on:

Refining

Storage

Distribution

Oil & Gas Exposure Analysis

Bladex Outlook Negative Stable Positive Negative

Rationale for Outlook • Lower margins

• Reduced cash flows

• Reduced investment

• Upstream impact

mitigated by positive

outlook in Downstream

activities

• Better refining margins

• Cost efficiency gains

• Increased collection

period

• Adjustments in utility

rates and contracts

Bladex Credit Exposure:

• Includes Commercial

Portfolio + Treasury Portfolio

2Q16 Update: • Total duration of 7 months

• 73% is trade-related

transactions

• 55% of the exposure

corresponds to sov. risk

• Main countries by exposure:

Peru 18%, Colombia 15%,

Uruguay 14%, Argentina

13%, T&Tobago 12%, and

Mexico 10%

• $158MM

• Duration of 16 months

• 2% of Total Credit

Portfolio

• 11% of O&G

Exposure

• Restructuring efforts

taking hold as

expected

• Mitigating factors:

Diversification in

Gas

More competitive

cost base

53% of exposure

is contingent only

(SBLCs)

• $463MM

• Duration of 7 months

• 7% of Total Credit

Portfolio

• 33% of O&G

Exposure

• Import/export

transactions

• Mitigating factors:

Strategic relevance /

quasi-gov´t entities

Local fuel price

regimes not tied to

crude price

evolution

• $714MM

• Duration of 4 months

• 10% of Total Credit

Portfolio

• 51% of O&G

Exposure

• Import transactions

• Mitigating factors:

Strategic relevance /

quasi-gov´t entities

Local fuel price

regimes not tied to

crude price

evolution

• $65MM

• Duration of 23 months

• 1% of Total Credit

Portfolio

• 5% of O&G

Exposure

• Mid-term transactions

/ take or pay contracts

/ equipments

• Mitigating factors:

Diversification in

other activities

Solid track record

with over 30 years

as specialized

providers

Continued exposure bias towards short-term transactions,

quasi-sovereigns counterparties, and Integrated / Downstream market spectrum

Oil & Gas Credit Exposure

Portfolio %

Commercial 96%

Treasury 4%

Supply Chain

(Other services industry)

Clients focused on: Oil Production Services

Drilling equipment/leasing

Maintenance platforms /

pipelines, manufacturing

12

Page 13: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Credit Quality

• Addition of three exposures with corresponding specific reserves

as restructuring and recovery efforts are currently in process –

Wholesalers sector (Brazil/Panama) and Grains & Oilseeds

(Brazil)

• Other exposures already restructured, performing as expected as

sector fundamentals (Sugar, Crude prices) stabilize 13

Page 14: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Off-balance Sheet Assets &

Commission and Intermediation

Income

• Fees & Other income increase attributable to five led/co-

led syndicated transactions totaling $0.4B

• One transaction of $125 million closed in early 3Q16

• Robust pipeline of syndicated transactions for remainder

of 2016

• Income from off-balance sheet portfolio impacted by lower

demand from importers in the Southern Cone and Andean

regions, partially offset by client diversification

14

Page 15: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Operating Expenses and

Efficiency Ratios

15

• Improved overall efficiency ratio on

higher business income and lower

operating expenses from decreased

performance-based compensation

expense

Page 16: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

ROAE and Capitalization

• QoQ ROAE variance mainly

attributable to impact of higher loss

provisions

• YoY ROAE evolution reflects

improved core business dynamics

• Tier 1 Basel III capitalization remains

strong at 15.6%, with variances to

comparison quarters mainly from

increased risk weighted assets reflecting

market perception of risk in the Region

16

Page 17: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Shareholder Returns

• Bladex’s stock price performance benefitting from stable

to improving business trends, better outlook for LatAm

and Banking Sector trends.

• Valuations remain very attractive at 9.7x trailing 12-month

(P/E) and 1.0x (P/BV) as of June 30, 2016.

• Stable dividend, declared @$0.385/sh for 2Q16, with

yield well above 5%.

17

Page 18: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Questions & Answers

18

Page 19: 2Q16 Conference Call Presentation

Thank You

19