3-climate and water vulnerability-ramiro.pptx
TRANSCRIPT
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LOS CAMBIOS CLIMTICOS YVULNERABILIDAD DE LOS
RECURSOS HDRICOS EN BOLIVIA
(Summary of papers and implication for futurestudies)
La Paz, junio de 2014
Ramiro Pillco Zol, Ph.D
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Geographical position and
the vulnerability of ALTIPLANO
Evaporation and climate changes
of Andean Plateau in large time scale
Intense local hydrological processes
and future studies
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Papers carried outEvaporation of Andean plateau surface waters strongly influencesstable isotopes elevation reconstruction
Richard P. Fiorellaa
, Christopher J. Poulsena
, Ramiro Pillco Zolb
, M.Louise Jefferya, d and Todd A. Ehlersa,c (submited to PPHYSICAL
SCIENCE, 2014)
Spatial interpretation of precipitation in Altiplano derived fromTRMM and PERSSIAN satellites
(Presented at fifth Scientific Meeting
of ORE-HYBAM, Bolivia, 2013)
F. Satga, A. Arsenb, M.P. Bonnet a, F. Timouka , S. Calmantb, R. Pillco
Zolab, J. Molina c, W. Lavado-Casimirod, J.F. Crtauxb
Accuracy assessment of SRTM v4 and ASTER GDEM v2 over the
Altiplanos watershed using ICES/GLAS DATA (submitted in 2013) .F. Satga, A. Arsenb, M.P. Bonnet a, F. Timouka, S. Calmantb, R. Pillco
Zolac, J. Molina c, W. Lavado-Casimirod, J.F. Crtauxb
Response of Bolivian Altiplano Lakes to Seasonal and Anual
Climate Variation (Doctoral Thesis, Ramiro Pillco Zol, Lund University, 2007)
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Additional worksTectonic control on denudation rates in the central Bolivian AndesGerold Zeilinger (1), Florian Kober (2), Kristina Hippe (3), Theodora Lendzioch (1), Reto
Grischott (2), Ramiro Pillco Zol (4), and Markus Christl (5) (University of Potsdam) (Published
at Geophysical Research, 2013) (EU FUNDS)
Sediment production in Tuni river glacier watershed, Bolivia (Presented at AOGSmeeting, Taiwan, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)
Geomorphology and the erosion behavior of glacier watershdes in Bolivia(Presented
at Grande International Symposium, Tohoku University, Sendai, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)
Runoff prediction with swedish Hvb model in the small Azanaque watershed withporpuse of water planignMarco Limachi (a), Ramiro Pillco Zol (b) (Presented at National workshop in modeling of
water resources in Bolivia, 2013) (SIDA FUNDS)
Recharge zones defined for Azanaque watershed on satellite images and based onempirical modelMauro Reyes Ayaviri, Ramiro Pillco Zol (Presented at local workshop, La Paz, Bolivia, 2013)
(SIDA FUNDS)
Desing of groudwater dam in Huacani watershed for irrigation purposes, 2012
(SIDA FUNDS)Alejandra Mollinedo, Ramiro Pillco Zol
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Motivation
(close at 4000 masl, 14S and 22S and longitude 66W and 71W)
Living under
risk!
(J. Allen, 2000)
http://www.zonu.com/fullsize-en/2009-11-08-10941/Satellite-view-of-South-America.html -
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Geographical position and the vulnerability ofALTIPLANO (Context)
( MCQUARRIE, 2005)
Orographic barrier and highposition/climate changes consequences
(Smith, 1979; Seager, 2002; Takahashi, 2007)
Geodynamic mechanism
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-Precipitation distribution at regional scale
Data comparison between TRMM and observed, northern part
(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al., 2013)
Geographical position and the vulnerability ofALTIPLANO (Context)
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Geographical position and the vulnerability ofALTIPLANO (Context)
The positive precipitation
anomalies in Altiplano is linked to
La-Nia of ENSO phenomena an the
contrary to El-Nio
The southern of Altiplano is
becoming warmer than the northern
of Altiplano. For tropical region we
may expect 4, 7 C (IPCC, 2010)
According to climate treats wemay expect high vulnerability for
changes of ecosystems, agriculture,
health
(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)
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Geographical position and the vulnerability ofALTIPLANO (Context)
Water level changes for the
present climate, observed/computed
Water level for future scenarios
warmer climate and cold climate
Titicaca Lake
(R. Pillco, et al, 2007)
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Evaporation of Andean Plateauand from surface water
- Isotopic composition of Altiplano, today (2009-2012)
-The streams have experiencedhighly evaporation than the precipitation
-There is encrease in the 18O ofprecipitation with increasing elevation
..or with altitude more evaporative water
(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al, 2013)
-In long-term the water with uplift of Altiplanowill become more evaporative ???
GDEM/ICE
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Evaporation of Andean Plateau andfrom surface water
- It was applied stable-isotopes/orogenic histories
Miocene
arid
The surface evaporationwas pervasive during all
the time of Andean uplift
Uplift2.5 km
(Garzione, 2008; Leier, 2013)
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Evaporation of Andean Plateau andfrom surface water
(Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, M;
Pillco, R.; 2013)
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Intense local hydrological processes
and future activities-The precipitation trend at local scale
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oct 2008 nov 2008 dic 2008 dic 2008 ene 2009 mar 2009 mar 2009 abr 2009 may 2009 jun 2009 jul 2009 ago 2009 sep 2009
Q obs
Q sim
(M. Limachi & R. Pillco, 2012)
(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)
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Intense hydrological processes/future activities
-Climate changes impact on poor developed societies
Water limited
Increasing pressure
Over-extraction
Fragile ecosystems
Basic water management
Climate changes impact
(M. Reyes & R. Pillco, 2012)
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Intense hydrological processes/future activities
-Informative map at small scale
Trend and climate changes
at regional scale
Trend and climate changes
at local scale
Prediction at regional scale and models
Prediction at local scale and models
Conventional actions Adaptation actions
What should be the model for reasonable economic development?
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Thanks !
(Ramiro, 2014)