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Lecture 11, 30 Sept 2008Extinction

Conservation BiologyECOL 406R/506R

University of ArizonaFall 2008

Bonine & Epps

Lab Friday-Sunday 17-19 October (leave 1230 Friday [west side BSE], return 1830h on Sunday)Hat, water bottle, food [plate, cup, utensils?], snacks, $?, sunscreen, close-toed shoes, layers, pants, binos, (cooler?, jug), ID/VISA- Readings on Course Website

506 meet at 1505h today

Upcoming ReadingsThurs 02 October: Primack pp 109-117; Thomas & Reid 2007 Tues 07 October: Primack Chs 5&6; Dodo excerpt; Panther PVA (skim)Thurs 09 October: xxConservation Genetics

-Tues Seminar-Writing Prompts-506 today? Thurs? Primack Ch5,

Harper et al. 2008

NO LAB 31 OCTOBER

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Study Abroad Information Opportunities, Fall 2008

Study Abroad (S.A.) Open HouseFriday, Oct. 3, 2008

S.A. Office, 11am-1pm

S.A. Fall FairWednesday, Nov. 5, 2008

UA Mall, 10am-2pm

Study Abroad Info Sessions :

EUROPEThursday, September 4th

12-1pm Student Union Agave RoomAUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND & FIJI

Wednesday, September 10th12-1pm Student Union Agave Room

AFRICAMonday, September 15th

12-1pm Student Union Agave RoomPUERTO RICO & GUATEMALA

Tuesday, September 16th12-1pm Student Union Copper Room

ITALYThursday, September 18th

12-1pm Student Union Agave RoomSPAIN

Tuesday, September 23rd12-1pm Student Union Copper RoomUNITED KINGDOM & IRELAND

Thursday, September 25th12-1pm Student Union Agave Room

GREECE and TURKEYWednesday, November 19th

3-4pm Student Union Ventana Room

http://sustainability.arizona.edu/http://www.eebweb.arizona.edu/news/monday_seminar_new.asp

http://snr.arizona.edu/

02 October

at El Saguarito(Park and Mabel)

2nd

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There's only two days left to submit your Campus Ecology Fellowship application. Apply by Wednesday,October 1, 2008 for the opportunity to make your campus a better place, while building your resume.National Wildlife Federation's Campus Ecology program awards fellowship grants to undergraduate and graduate students who are committed to reduce their campus carbon footprint; projects including: greenhouse gas inventories, climate action plans, energy conservation and efficiency, habitat restoration, convening climate action gatherings and more will be considered.Grant awards:Up to $2,000 for Undergraduate StudentsUp to $5,000 for Graduate StudentsDeadline: October 1, 2008Next Deadline: November 15, 2008Visit www.nwf.org/fellows for details about the Campus Ecology Fellowship program.Sincerely,

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Q3 Recently, including yesterday evening, the president and other government officials have warned of impending economic crisis unless $700 billion of your tax dollars are quickly used to purchase "toxic debt". Do you believe conservation of biodiversity is best served by this $700 billion bailout, best served by not spending your tax dollars on this bailout, or best served by some alternative economic solution? Explain and justify. (Due by midnight Thurs 02 Oct as .DOC attachment to MJ (mycota@gmail.com) via email. Note that this is your last opportunity to turn in a “September” Assignment. See your syllabus for details.)

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Threats to Biodiversity

Habitat Lossdestruction, fragmentation, degradation

Global Climate ChangeOverexploitationInvasivesDisease

SYNERGY

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Extinction Risk…

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6th?

Extinction Risk…

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Extinction Risk…Extinct…

Extinct in the WildEcologically Extinct

Locally ExtinctExtirpated

Vulnerable, Threatened, ENDANGERED

(vs. Extant)

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9Van Dyke 2003

3 step loss of biodiversity (Rosenzweig)

1. Endemics2. Sink populations3. Stochasticity

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Modelling Extinction Risk

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Extinction Risk

Amphibians

1. Wetland Habitat2. Terrestrial Habitat

wood frog (Rana sylvatica)&

spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum)

Harper et al. 2008

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Extinction Risk

Clean Water Act

1. Connected?2. Navigable?

State Laws and Buffers= 30m in Massachusetts

Need 290m (salamander) or 1000m (frog)?

Harper et al. 2008

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Modelling Extinction RiskAll models are wrong, some models are useful.

Data!

Life History StagesLife TablesDemographicsHabitat needsHabitat qualityStochasticity (e.g., hydroperiod)

Harper et al. 2008

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Modelling Extinction Risk

Why only model females?Age of first reproduction?Life span?Clutch size?Fecundity?

Model Robustness(many iterations with different parameter values)

Harper et al. 2008

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Modelling Extinction Risk

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

Data!

-Density (& Carrying Capacity [K])-Ecology

(study of distribution and abundance of organisms)-Natural History

Harper et al. 2008

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ModellingExtinction Risk(20 years out)

Frog

Salamander

Harper et al. 2008

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Other Considerations/Conclusions

To maintain (95% probability over 20 years)salamander populations need 100-165m buffer (habitat size) and less than 5% decrease in adult mortality (habitat quality).

Frogs more reliant on immigration (and habitat!)

Harper et al. 2008

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Other Considerations/Conclusions

Metapopulations

Immigration/Extinction

Habitat Degradation vs. Loss

Need Habitat and Connectivity

Longer life-span relies on greater adult survivorship

Ecoystem Complexity, Links

Harper et al. 2008

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1- Island Biogeography

2- Metapopulations

3- Habitat Heterogeneity

4- Disturbance

5- Genetic Diversity (MVP, PVA, Small Populations)

Paradigms In Conservation

20Zug et al. 2001

Biogeographic Realms

Holarctic

Gondwana

(Pangaea)

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1. Island BiogeographyQuammen Excerpt from Song of the Dodo (p.52-55)

LyellWallaceDarwin

MacArthurWilson

Frogs vs. Birds

Oceanic vs. Continental

Size, Age, Distance

dispersal

succession

~equilibrium

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Tarbuck and Lutgens 1999

Dispersal

Vicariance

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- Plate tectonics- Climate (glaciation, drought)- Sea level

Islands, especially Continental, affected by:

Connectivity

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VanDyke 2003

Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography

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Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography

•Habitat Fragmentation

•Reserve Design

•Predictions vs. Observations

•Missing Factors-Rescue Effect-Habitat Suitability-Sink vs. Source-Habitat Heterogeneity-Species Interactions

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27http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/mockingbird.html

Adaptive Radiation

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Pough et al. 2004

Galapagos

Humboldt Current

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Daphne Major

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http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/DarwinFinch.htm

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Fernandina

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HolarcticGondwana

Pangaea

Laurasia

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Alfred Wegener, winter 1912-1913

Crustal Plates moving 1-12 cm / year

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Plate Tectonics – not fully accepted until 1960s

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Pough et al. 2004

Wallace’s Line

Weber’s LineSulawesi

Sunda shelf Sahul Shelf

Alfred Russel Wallace(1823 - 1913)

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Pough et al. 2004

Dispersal Ability

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Pough et al. 2004

Dispersal Ability (Isolation by Distance)

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2. Metapopulation:

“Spatially disjunct groups of individuals with some demographic or genetic connection”

“largely independent yet interconnected by migration”

1. All local populations must be prone to extinction2. Persistence of entire population requires recolonization of individual sites.

(See p.193 in VanDyke text)

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Source

Sink

b vs. d

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Juggling Balls, Oranges, and Mites:

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Hydrothermal Vents Lowland Leopard Frogs(thanks to Don Swann)

Metapopulation:

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4 km

Distribution of Lowland Leopard Frogs in Rincon Mountains, 1996-2001

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Metapopulation Dynamics

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Chytrid Fungus

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3. Habitat Heterogeneity

Conserve Bigger Area?

Conserve More Diverse Habitats?

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4. Disturbances

-Endogenous-Exogenous

An SUV is seen covered by sand as residents walk to their homes to inspect the damage by hurricane Ivan Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2004 in Pensacola Beach, Fla. Beach residents were allowed to see their homes for the first time since the hurricane. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

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Habitat Heterogeneity and Disturbance

- Tree Fall in Forest- Fire- Beaver Dam on Stream

Climax Community vs. Shifting Mosaic

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Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis

“supercompetitors”“succession reset”