64’th ihc, march 2010 1 william lapenta,naomi surgi and stephen lord environmental modeling center...

164’th IHC, March 2010

William Lapenta ,Naomi Surgiand Stephen Lord

Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP

NCEP

Linking The HFIP Community With NCEP/EMC Operations


Outline

The EMC Mission

Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting

HFIP Goals and Structure

Mapping NCEP/EMC Tropical Cyclone Modeling Priorities to HFIP/OFCM

Facilitation of R&D results into Operations


The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

CPC

HPC

SPC

SWPC

AWC

OPC

NHC

NCO

EMC


The EMC Mission…..

Develop and enhance numerical guidance– Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast

model systems via • Scientific upgrades• Tuning• Additional observations

Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of

operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to

ever-present external changes

Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations

– Transform & integrate • Code• Algorithms• Techniques

– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation

EMC location within the funnel

In response to operational requirements:


Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems (GDAS/GFS)

Horizontal RepresentationSpectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics.

Vertical RepresentationSigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974).

Vertical Resolution64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa.

• 4 Cycles per day• T382(~35km) to 7.5 days• T190(~70km) to 16 days


NCEP’s Regional HurricaneNumerical Guidance

GFDL Movable nested Air-sea coupled Inner nest

9 km/42L Specialized vortex initialization, Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003,

2004)

HWRF added in 2007 Based on NMM Dynamic Core Movable, two-way nested grid 9km inner;

27km outer; 42 vertical layers; 75 x 75° domain)

Advanced physics (atmosphere/ocean fluxes; tested in GFDL - the "benchmark", NCEP GFS boundary layer and deep convection)

Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var (an advancement over GFDL bogus)

Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (with loop current initialization - same as GFDL)


7

• RTOFS Provides:– Routine estimation of the

ocean state [T, S, U, V, W, SSH]

– Daily 1 week forecast– 5 km coastal resolution– Initial and boundary

conditions for local model applications

• Wave Modeling:– NOAA Wavewatch III– Global and Regional – Unified model approach

Real Time Ocean Forecasting Systemand WAVEWATCH III


Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty.

Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports.

Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to

transition research into operations.

HFIP Goals: Reduce average track error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.

Reduce average intensity error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.

Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5.

Decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5.

Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7.

The NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)


Placing HFIP into the Funnel….

5

3

5

4

Institutions

Ocean/Wave Model

Hurricane Observations

Applications Development and Diagnostics

Verification

HFIP Teams

5

10

13

10

Members

5

9

7

8

Institutions

8

5

12

8

Members

Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization

Ensembles

Regional Model/Physics

Global Model/Physics

HFIP Teams

5

3

5

4

Institutions

Ocean/Wave Model

Hurricane Observations

Applications Development and Diagnostics

Verification

HFIP Teams

5

10

13

10

Members

5

9

7

8

Institutions

8

5

12

8

Members

Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization

Ensembles

Regional Model/Physics

Global Model/Physics

HFIP Teams

Role of the Teams and Leads

Each year develop an overall plan for the team’s component of the HFIP Program Needs to be coordinated with:

Other team plans Across the various organizations (13 total)

Role of Team lead Provide summaries of progress Lead the development of the program plan for the

team Lead the coordination across teams and

organizations


1) Improve performance of the HWRF regional system in support of TPC intensity forecasts {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} Data assimilation and vortex initialization (B1) Model physics (i.e., atm/ocean exchange) (B3) Model dynamics (B2)

2) Improvement of the GFS to support longer range track forecasts {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL (B2, B3a, B3c)

• Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)• PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine

stratus) Increase model horizontal resolution (T382 [~35km] to T574 [~28km]) (B2)

3) Improve performance of RTOFS and WAVEWATCH III™ {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} Waves as direct source to TKE in air and water (B3a, B3b) Assimilation of JASON 2 data (B3b)

NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 Implementation Priorities

NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needsParentheses are model development research areas


HWRF Development Areas {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} pressure-wind relationship initial conditions and data assimilation atmospheric physics coupling between atmosphere, ocean and wave components testing of high resolution HWRF configuration

Diagnostic capability to guide future operational model development {3, 6, 7, 9}

GDAS/GFS development {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}

Implement a 1/12 degree global RTOFS based on HYCOM {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}

Develop operational hurricane ensemble capability {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14}

NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 & Beyond Development Priorities

NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs


NCEP Planned Hurricane Forecast System—Regional Component


Process to Implement Major Upgradesto The NCEP Model Production Suite

EMC Change Control Board

•Scientific Integrity•Product Quality•EMC Mgmt Approval

Implementation Phase• SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s

•30-day NCO parallelTest code stabilityTest dataflowProducts to NCEP Centers

and EMC code developers•NCEP Centers

Evaluate impactAssessments to NCEP OD

R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase

•30-day NCO parallel stable•NCEP centers approve

•Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval

Implementation•Generate RFC’s•Submit RFC’s to NCO

SystematicSystematicTestingTesting


Apply Implementation Processes to GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation…

Adding new observation data sources. Tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure

obs NOAA19 hirs/4,AMSU-A, & MHS brightness

temp obs NOAA18 sbuv/2. Monitor N19 GOME, and

OMI ozone (no assimilation) RARS (currently only EARS) 1B data EUMETSAT-9 atm motion vectors

Implementing improved techniques in GSI analysis. Use uniform thinning mesh for brightness

temp data Improvements to assimilation of GPS RO

data (QC, retune ob errors, improved forward operator )

Add dry mass pressure constraint Merge GMAO & EMC codes for 4d-var

capability Update background error covariance Proper use of different spectral truncation

between background and analysis Benefits

Improved GFS tropical storm track & intensity forecasts

Small improvement in global forecast accuracy


Time and Dedication for GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation

17 months required to develop, test and implement

119 person months of effort (EMC, NCO, GFDL, TPC, SPC, HPC, AWC)

17 months of continuous cycles 4/day with 16 day forecasts retrospective/real-time testing conducted for GFS/GSI

500 HWRF and 600 GFDL TC/Hurricane cases simulated

1000 Node hours and 75 TB of disk consumed


DTC

Purpose: To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community

Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods

Operational: benefits from DTC T&E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation

ResearchCommunity

OperationalCommunity

New Science and Technology

Operational Codes

DTCNCAR RAL/MMMNOAA/ESRL/EMC

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) & HFIP…..

EMC AFWA

TPC


DTC Goals on Hurricanes

Facilitate transfer of research to operations by creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate

Support the community in using HWRF (the current NCEP operational hurricane model) HWRF physics into WRF V3.2—plan to use for FY11 implementation First HWRF Tutorial (Feb 24-26, 2010) EMC/MMM/DTC Hurricane Workshop (Feb 22-23, 2010)

Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC Operational perspective and expertise in residence (N. Surgi) Share burden of pre-implementation testing assure integrity of code and evaluate new developments for potential

operational implementation

Hypothesis: Higher probability of successful R&D transition into NCEP Operations


In Summary NCEP/EMC continues to build partnerships to

satisfy customer needs (It’s a NWS Support Center)

Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting Sytem

NCEP/EMC providing TC modeling priorities and plans to the external community

Facilitation of R&D results into operations through the DTC

64’th ihc, march 2010 1 william lapenta,naomi surgi and stephen lord environmental modeling center...

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