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FY2010-2011 HFIP Stream 1

Advancements at NCEP/EMC

Vijay Tallapragada, Bill Lapenta, John Ward,

John Derber, Hendrik Tolman, Yuejian Zhu,

Stephen Lord, and Many Others at EMC

HFIP Annual Review Meeting, Miami, FL,

November 9, 2010

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HFIP Stream 1 contributions

Global Modeling

Data Assimilation

Regional Modeling and Physics

Ocean and Wave modeling

Diagnostics and Verification

Ensembles

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Data Assimilation (17 December 2009) Assimilate:

NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS, RARS 1b data

NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI

Tropical Storm SLP

Improved use of GPS RO observations

Refractivity forward operator

Better QC procedures Metop/GRAS, GRACE-A and CHAMP, COSMIC

Increased Horizontal Resolution and Physics Upgrade (28 July 2010 Horizontal resolution

T382 (35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L for 0 to 192hr forecast

Remains T190 (~70km) & 64L for 192-384 hr forecast

Upgrade GFS physics (Radiation, shallow/deep convection and PBL)

Modified SW and LW radiation calculations (aerosol effects, co2, cloud interaction)

Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)

PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)

Includes gravity wave drag (effect of topography)

Upgrades to Global System

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GFS Upgrade Atlantic Hurricane

Track Error (2008 Hurricane Season)

2008 Operational – Blue

December GFS Package – Red

T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

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GFS Upgrade EPAC Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season

32% Improvement

over 2008 Prod

25% Improvement

over 1Q10 Prod

2008 Operational – Blue

December GFS Package – Red

T574 with upgraded Physics - Green

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Atlantic Hurricane Track Error (NM)2010 Hurricane Season (through September)

NCEP GFS

ECMWF

GFS (27 km) similar to EC (16 km)

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Planned Global Data Assimilation

System Upgrade (FY11)

Joint Development with JCSDA, NASA, ESRL

New Observations

ASCAT winds

Radar and Lightning data IO and cloud analysis for RR (GSD, DTC)

NOAA-19 SBUV/2

NOAA-19 MHS – remove NOAA-15 AMSU-BQC and data handling

QC and Data Handling

Upgrade quality control of MHS/AMSU-B water vapor channels

Improve location of Buoys in vertical (move from 20 to 10m)

Improved OMI QC

Removal of redundant SBUV/2 total ozone

Retune SBUV/2 ozone ob errors

Relax AMSU-A Channel 5 QC

Remove down weighting of collocated radiances

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Hurricane DA Efforts

Unified GSI for global, regional and mesoscale applications

Code management and oversight through DTC

Hybrid Assimilation - EnKF/variational Part of background error covariance defined by ensembles

Situation dependent background error

Improved balance between variables (includes all variables including ozone and moisture)

Improved cloud/precipitation analysis (Inclusion of cloudy radiances)

Improved balance Inclusion of balance within analysis

Inclusion of TLNMI in regional system

Balance through Hybrid assimilation system

Improved use of current data and additional data

Storm relocation within GSI

Include diabatic effects into GSI Balance and further enhancements to balance equation

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Regional Modeling Efforts

See next presentation on HWRF

model development efforts

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continuous upgrades

RTOFS-Global

RTOFS-Global

Push to global model (vs. regional models):

Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB.

IC / BC for regional (coupled HWRF) models.

Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP).

GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle).

NAVOCEANO provides initialization.

Timeline:

Now: NCO parallel model run with NRL initialization.

FY2011Q4: operational.

FY2014: initialization at NCEP.

NOMADS as main distribution points (OpenDAP, NetCDF).

RTOFS-Atlantic as testbed for global.

initialization 06z

model run 12z

post 18z

paradigm shift for NWS

Ocean/Wave Modeling Efforts

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Waves

Igor in the multi-grid

hurricane wave model:

7.5km coastal resolution.

Shallow water physics.

Note shadow zones behind

Bahamas and Bermuda (!).

Wave system based wind

sea and swell separation

(from USACE)

Operational since

11/2/2010

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Waves

Present capability illustrated with test runs for

hurricane Gustav.

Grid resolution up to 400m, working on 100m grids.

Dynamic inundation using ADCIRC water levels.

Joint project with NGI through MSU and LSU

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HYCOM-HWRF

Will be included in the HWRF part of presentation.

HYCOM - WAVEWATCH III – HWRF

Framework is there.

Will start testing this in the coming year.

Will require WAVEWATCH III true moving grid option for

numerical economy reasons.

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Enhanced HWRF Diagnostics and Verification

• Operational HWRF Statistics Website

• Modified Statistical Verification

• HWRF Simulated-GOES Images

• Unified Post Processing

Contributions to ADD and Verification Teams

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Operational HWRF Statistics Page• New Plots Generated Every 6 hours when HWRF is run• Individual and All-Season Stats Available

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New NHC Verification Package (Courtesy: James Franklin)

• More advanced version of nhcver.x compared to what currently using• Ability to look at along track and cross track errors• Ability to look at land vs. water points• Format of textfile output different than previous verification package

– Need different method of visualization– Old vs. New Version very similar

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HWRF Simulated-GOES Images

• Added to Operational Graphics Page

• Available for 2010 Hurricane Season

• Include Simulated GOES images for GFS on HWRF webpage

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High resolution GEFS T574L64 (Plan)- For HFIP high resolution demonstration (2010)

No results – still working on the Oak Ridge machine

• High resolution global ensembles (NCEP/GEFS)– T574L64 (~30km horizontal resolution)

• ETR (ensemble transform with rescaling)

– Every 6 hours, Cycling at T574L64 resolution, Tuning for rescaling (based on T190L28 parameters)

– Integrations• At Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

• 11 members (include control), Out to 168 hours, With stochastic perturbations

– Near real time parallel• Once per day from now (pending on the progress of set up)

– HWRF-GEFS Hurricane Ensemble System (real-time parallels for selected 2010 storms

• Uncertainty in Initial Large-Scale Flow

Contributions to Global and Regional Model Ensembles

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Resolution makes difference for Typhoon Morakot

Ini: 2009080600

T126 ensemble

T190 ensemble

Ini: 2009080700

T126 ensemble

T190 ensemble

Most models do not

make right forecasts

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Forecast skills are

improved from 24h

to 120h.

The skill improvement

increases with time.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

NCEPraw NCEPbc NAEFS

Cases 240 223 196 169 144 110 75 42

Track forecast error for 2009 season (AL+EP+WP)

NAEFS is combined NCEP (NCEPbc) and CMC’s (CMCbc) bias corrected ensemble and bias corrected GFS

Contributed by Dr. Jiayi Peng (EMC/NCEP)

Ensemble post processing and

multi-model ensembles (NAEFS)

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

NCEPbc CMCbc GFS NAEFS

Cases 240 223 196 169 144 110 75 42

Track forecast error for 2009 season (AL+EP+WP)

NAEFS is combined NCEP (NCEPbc) and CMC’s (CMCbc) bias corrected ensemble and bias corrected GFS

Contributed by Dr. Jiayi Peng (EMC/NCEP)

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More details on EMC contributions

will be presented in individual team

reports by respected team leads

Thanks for your attention