Spatial change and transport in Gauteng: Observations from the Quality of Life Survey

Christina Culwick, Gauteng City-Region Observatory

Southern African Transport Conference

8 July 2019

Gauteng City-Region Observatory

GCRO helps to build the knowledge base that government, business, labour, civil society and

residents all need to shape appropriate strategies that will advance a competitive, integrated,

sustainable and inclusive Gauteng City-Region.

Growth dynamicsPopulation dynamics

5.86.6

1.1

2.7

10.3

3.5

12.3

4.05.4

6.37.0

1.2

2.8

11.1

3.7

13.4

4.35.8

8

7

43

8

7

9

7 7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

% in

crease in p

opu

lationPop

ula

tion

(m

illio

ns)

2011 2016 Percentage increase

Population dynamicsUrbanisation – the South African story

• It is not simply that the urban population is growing in proportional terms,

• The rural population is declining in absolute terms

• Important to understand that this does not necessarily mean cities being flooded with rural migrants (e.g. many new urban settlements are in the heart of rural areas)

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Population dynamicsGauteng’s population growth

• Gauteng’s population estimated at 14.7 million

• From 2017-2018 it grew by approx. 400 000

• This is 8 000 / week

• ± 1.8million every five years

https://pudding.cool/2018/10/city_3d/

Urban growth in the Gauteng City-Region: 1994-2013Spatial impact of population growth

Intensification nodesForms of urban development

New developmentsForms of urban development

Contrasting developmentsForms of urban development

Urban expansionForms of urban development

Complexes and estatesForms of urban development

Wilgeheuwel: 2000Contextualising urban dynamics

Wilgeheuwel: 2006Contextualising urban dynamics

Diepsloot: 2000Contextualising urban dynamics

Diepsloot: 2009Contextualising urban dynamics

Quality of Life survey insights

C.Culwick

5 836Start: 31 Aug ‘09 End: 8 Oct ‘09

16 729Start: 15 Aug ‘11 End: 15 Dec ‘11

27 490Start: 9 Sep ‘13 End: 17 Mar ‘14

30 002Start: 15 Jul ‘15 End: 15 May ‘16

24 889Start: 31 Oct ‘17 End: 7 Sep ‘18

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

. . . . .

Gauteng

Overview of the GCRO’s Quality of Life surveyThe evolution of the QoL survey

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Transport dynamics

36%

9%

5%

33%

2% 2%

12%

34%

8%5%

27%

2% 2%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

To go to work To look forwork

To go towhere I study

Shopping Takingchildren to

school

Leisure /entertainment

Other purpose

2015/16

2017/18

QoL IV (2015/16) & QoL V (2017/18)Purpose of most frequent trip

QoL V (2017/18)Time to work

13% 17% 17% 18%30%

18%28%

15% 20% 16%

35% 32% 29% 29%

38%

35%

41%

29%35%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16 to 30 mins

Up to 15 mins

Trip duration by wardQoL III (2013)

Public transport accessITMP25; Census 2011

QoL V (2017/18)Longest mode of most frequent trip

6

37

46

35 2 2 Walk

Private vehicle

Taxi

Train

BRT (Rea Vaya /Areyeng)Other bus

Other taxi

Other

QoL IV (2017/18)

Dominant mode by ward

QoL V (2017/18)Satisfaction with longest transport mode

20

30

14

9

45

25

18

15

57

63

64

45

48

61

62

65

8

4

9

11

5

5

10

9

11

2

11

23

3

6

9

8

5

1

3

11

2

2

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Walk

Private vehicle

Taxi

Train

Gautrain

ReaVaya/ A re yeng

Other bus

Other taxi

Very satisfied Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied Very dissatisfied

QoL V (2017/18)Satisfaction with public transport by ward

QoL V (2017/18)Public transport improvement by ward

• Gauteng growing fastest in terms of population and urban development

• Spatial implication of growth – residential growth NB

• General trend of long trips to work and to look for work remains entrenched

• Cars & taxis dominant modes of transport

• Satisfaction differs significantly by mode, with lowest satisfaction with trains

• Pockets of improvement in public transport

• Prominence of taxis and cars, particularly in areas of growth indicates poor public transport development to meet growing needs

SummarySpatial change and transport

GCRO+27 11 717 7280info@gcro.ac.za

ADDRESS6th Floor University Corner11 Jorissen StreetBraamfonteinJohannesburgGautengSouth Africa

POSTAL ADDRESSGCROPrivate Bag 3Wits2050

Thank You

CHRISTINA CULWICK+27 11 717 7296christina.culwick@gcro.ac.za