9 february 2017 - profercy · 2021. 2. 2. · one big india buyer takes np20-20 s nola market stays...

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9 February 2017

Published by

Profercy Phosphates SC

Editor Tom Jago

World Producer Position

Tabulation comment: Our Feb

opening world DAP, MAP producer

stock change was at +47kt. Big

deferred demand from Q4 is back

along with strong prompt interest from

all N Hemisphere markets.

Cash costs up, but behind P prices:

S import prices up $15-17t for Q1 in N

Africa & NH3 up $60t vs December

raise MAP costs $15pt & DAP by

$20pt in the last 60 days. DAP, MAP

are up $40-43pt in the same period.

for DAP,$10 for MAP.

NH3 increases are also set to impact

Morocco, and crucially India – raising the

bar for import DAP cost equivalent

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T +34 952 833 906 M +34 665 832 954

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Phosphates bull-run continues: Brazil, Argentina, US,

EU, China local & SE Asia all up; India takes NPs

Phosphates are bullish with buyers still in a rush to complete on import needs

earlier deferred. This demand is overwhelming producers, who can now to pick

and choose between certain priority markets. The load congestion and continual

delays at Jorf Lasfar are contributing to the rally, as did the load issues seen at

Tampa during most of January. NOLA still looks short DAP, but especially MAP.

Offers on NOLA MAP now equate to $380 pt cfr metric US Gulf, while Tampa

MAP offers to Brazil are now at $390pt cfr. One possible limit on the price rally

could be defensive moves by OCP to limit gains in Brazil, to pre-empt a Q2 boom

in Chinese export offers. But for now, Chinese local markets are hot, and the load

issues at Jorf mean OCP is not in a position to offer big prompt volumes to any

market. New capacity is poised at the JPH III, but with granulation seen fired up

in March, before phosacid. This is possible by diverting existing acid from the Jorf

platform. This provides the answer on OCP’s Q2 tactics; more granulation, more

exports to be offered into Brazil, and less phosacid for India. While most Indian

DAP importers wait, hoping for guidance from the DoF on scope for MRP

increases, one big Indian buyer has bought Indonesian NP 20-20 (13S).

One-minute briefing

Phosphates bull-run continues: Main driver still China. Other markets back to buy…

…are Vietnam, EU & NOLA. Tentative new interest in Pakistan, Bangladesh G2G

Add to this, new Ethiopia tender due in March for fresh enriched NPs for May load

The rate of increase is fast, but P ferts are still affordable bouncing off 7-year lows

Brazil buyers delay, first taken aback by $381 cfr Argentina, then seeing offers…

…surge higher to $390pt cfr. Last hope for claw-back is if OCP gets “defensive”

Brazil buyers claim avails of Chinese 11-44, but only offers so far are to Uruguay

Indian buyers hope for MRP increases, as subsidy frozen. Forex uptick is helping

No moves by GSFC on DAP tender offers. One big India buyer takes NP20-20 S

NOLA market stays firm; DAP now to $335pst fob barge; MAP offers $355pst fob

Europe buyers again pay up, as strong demand finds squeeze on prompt avails

225

260

295

330

365

400

435

$ p

t fo

b c

fr B

razi

l, In

dia

& $

pst

fo

b N

OLA

Spot DAP, MAP vs Profercy 2H 2016 calls & Q1 2017 outlook

Series2

Series3

Series5

$390 cfr Brazil

$370 cfr India

$355 st NOLA

Our March

August: Confusion in China over new corn policy is set to cut China local market pre-season, creating big export surplus & price slump

Outlook comments from recent Profercy Phosphates & NPKs Reports. We maintain the bullish view we have held since late Q4, extending price gains now into April/May, as below. We had been bearish for Q3/Q4, often with the lowest Tampa, NOLA & China readings.

1H Dec: Expecting China export tax removal to cut prices is a mis-judgement. Prices to rise following local market

End November: US is behind on imports. NOLA "pricing in" driven lows are bargain re-fill, or long position opportunities

1H Jan: $325 cfr is "pricing in", repeat of Q1 2016, again likely auguring big upside

DAP cfr India

MAP cfr Brazil

DAP pst fob NOLA

World DAP MAP NP snapshot

Exporter +/- Kt

USA +32

Mexico +10

Russia +13

Lithuania +9

Morocco +15

Tunisia +7

Saudi Arabia +5

Australia +10

Jordan +11

China port warehouse -65

Stock change Feb-open +47

© Copyright 2017 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or

transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 02

US DAP, MAP Balance

Exporter Destination Kt

Mosaic Brazil 78

India (system) 0

C America, Carib 26

Mexico 18

Canada 0

Australia 75

Japan 22

Colombia 18

PCS No exports 0

Local sales Southeast producers 395

Total excl MES 632

Est. Production

Mosaic* (excl MES) 415

former CF 135

PCS Aurora 115

Total 665

Stock change Feb open +32

* Mosaic, DAP, MAP & MES output is seen

continuing at 80-85% rates through Q1.

Mexico balance DAP, MAP

Q4

Fertinal Local 56

C America 37

Colombia 17

Europe 0

Helm Brazil 33

Nitron Uruguay, Arg 35

Jan 2017

Fertinal Local 11

Nitron NW Europe 30

Chile 31

Total 250

Production Estimate Kt

Q4 195

Jan 65

Total 260


Fertinal has a busy start to 2017, and has

little carry -over pressure into February

´

China China domestic: The market is firm in the first trading days after the Spring

Festival break. Distributor refill demand is picking up strongly for both DAP in

the north, northwest and west and supporting higher prices. For NPKs, there

is new action in east and central provinces, also from producers to

distributors.

• The key difference since before the holiday is movement through into

retail. This is driving fresh re-fill demand for producer tonnes into a thinly

stocked pipeline (more information in China production section)

• Local DAP prices have been raised, and achieved, at a sharp RMB100pt

increase with immediate effect after the Spring Festival. This is valid on

prompt tonnes only for dispatch through February. This has taken prices

to a new range of RMB2,760-2,820pt fot bulk ex inland storehouse,

across all north, central and northeast markets, thus crossing the $400-

410pt equivalent threshold.

• Relative to other markets: This means Chinese internal market prices for

DAP are still in the upper-tier of world prices, broadly in line pace with

inland EU DAP prices and US MAP prices. In this context, it is important

to note that Chinese domestic grain prices are significantly higher than in

the US (more below)

• DAP factory netbacks, export equivalent: The last inland prices above

net around RMB2,470-2,520pt fot ex works Yunnan, Guizhou and Hubei,

around $357-365pt fob basis the gradually firmer forex. This gives an

export equivalent around $360-402 pt fob China, now tax free.

• Local MAP11-44, export equivalent: MAP prices were already sharply

up over the last 6-8 weeks in China, and are unchanged consolidating

those gains as DAP and NPKs catch up at varying speeds. MOP and

MAP are generally the first products to see domestic market increases

going into pre- and peak season. Current values are stable at RMB1,930-

1,940pt fot ex works (low $280s), meaning an export equivalent around

$318-319pt fob. The local MAP price is up around RMB290-300pt ($42pt)

over the last 90 days, showing a rapid ramp-up in demand as the return

of deferred interest came back at the same time as the start of the Q4

prompt demand pick-up

• Local NPKs movement is also firm, at marginally higher prices. Local

MOP-based 15-15-15 is put at RMB1,925-1,950pt fot ex works in Eastern

and Central provinces (low $280spt). This stretches price gains to

RMB290-300pt ($42) vs mid-December, around the same price-increase

margin for MAP, though over a shorter time window.

China export: Exporters are not making DAP offers on big cargoes as yet.

There is ongoing business to fill direct producer business to markets such as

Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines & Myanmar (DAP and TSP).

Continues P4



0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

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750

Soyb

ean

c/b

u

DA

P $

pt

& C

orn

c/b

u

Crops & DAP values close-up: DAP had close linkage to corn & beans to late 2015

CME Soybeans futures DAP fob Tampa DAP fob NOLA (metric equiv) CME Corn futures

Until early Q4 2015, DAP prices followed corn and soybeans futures

both closely and consistently....

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Soyb

ean

c/b

u

DA

P $

pt

& C

orn

c/b

u

Crops & DAP values close-up: DAP follows self-contained fundamentals most of 2016


...but from Q4 2015, DAP started to follow its own fundamentals, chiefly driven by

buyer risk-aversion, forex crises, pipeline de-stocking, and major purchase deferral

As new crop uptrend emerges, DAP has strong upside scope. But will some producers seek to "control"

increases to dampen Chinese export ambition?



More China (from P2) • There is also scope for traders to put together combination lots of

multiple grades, but this is hard work, and not achievable by all players.

Ameropa looks to be stemming recent business into Guatemala in this

way with NPs, and MAP 10-50 in combo with nitrogen products – against

a 1H March load freight enquiry for a total 45,000t lot.

• SE Asia netbacks: The latest small-volume business to Vietnam is

netting the high $360s pt fob bulk China. Cross-border shipments of DAP

from China are now very thin.

• For DAP: Yihua is linked with a sale of a intended part-cargo 7,000t lot to

Nitron for Latin America at $360 fob. This is for 1H March load.

• For MAP, there are some limited avails for granular 10-50, made

primarily with export in mind, which are offered in a range $355-360pt fob

China. This appears to trapping some suppliers to Australia (more below).

• Seaport inventories: Total DAP avails at Chinese ports are said to be

rebuilding back over 300,000t, and MAP at 135,000t, both up marginally

on two weeks ago. Although these levels are higher, they are still

historically slim, and equivalent to just one weeks’ production of DAP and

about 5 days of MAP output.

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Soyb

ean

c/b

u

DA

P $

pt

& C

orn

c/b

u

As new crop uptrend emerges, DAP has significant upside scope

But will certain producers seek to "control" gains to limit Chinese Q2 export ambition?


The last time beans were consistently over $10.50/bu and corn in the

$3.60s/bu....

...DAP was in the $470s pst fob NOLA & $450s fob Tampa

Producer tactics, Safe-guarding

local avails: Outside these small

volume, programmed export

volumes and trader multi-grade

combinations, there are few new

offers. This is because the main

concern among the local phosphates

majors is to ensure there are

sufficient domestic avails.

• Producer co-operation: The

high output rates continue to

underline the widespread failure

of producers to impose industry-

wide output rates on each other,

there is however strong price

discipline, unlike in October and

November. In bullish markets,

producers therefore continue to

stay resolute on price targets,

both domestically and for export.

Both home and offshore markets

are fairly transparent, with

market levels well known across

the industry.



Australia balance DAP, MAP

Q4

Quantum India/Pak combo 55

Pakistan 40

IPL Local Auz (2 lots) 65

Thailand 25

Vietnam 20

Jan ‘17

IPL Local Auz (3 lots) 90

Total sale 295


Q4 230

Jan 75

Total avail 305


IPL’s aggressive export program through Q3

and Q4 maintains local stocks of both DAP

and MAP thin. Imports to Australia,

including replacements for domestic

tonnage, are seen big this year.

Jordan balance DAP

JPMC Q4 Kt

Helm Turkey (3 lots) 32

Ameropa Turkey (2 lots) 45

Iraq/Kurdistan 12

JPMC Jan ‘17 Kt

Turkey (1 lot) 27

Iraq/Kurdistan 8

Total sales 124


Q4 Low rates 105

Jan ‘17 Low rates 30

Total avails 135


China production: DAP producers have tonnes in hand from earlier strong

factory stocks, but are now running at improved rates. This has put a floor

under local sulphur prices sustaining the strong 26% S price recovery since

the early Q4 low, holding spot levels around a one-year high. Although

producers have been telegraphing output cuts since Oct/Nov, actual rates

look to have been maintained high, with sulphur prices responding to this.

Southeast Asia, Pacific Australia: Local distributors and blenders are still behind the curve on MAP,

DAP imports. This is due to a mix of various reasons (a) due to the big

exports in 2H 2016, (b) load delays at Tampa and Jorf Lasfar, (c) tight

conditions in Saudi Arabia, (d) the change in export priorities in Mexico (new

Pemex management), and on the buy-side (e) firm ag-sector conditions –

both for crops & livestock.

• Import cargoes: The long-delayed Koch cargo due out of Tampa in 1H

January has finally shipped around 50,000t MAP, DAP and MES to

Western Australia on the MV KN Forest. A further mid-February US cargo

of MAP, MES & Kmag is expected to follow this one, but to East Australia.

There are expected to be two Ma’aden MAP cargoes to Australia, one in

late February, and another in early March to different importers for around

35-40,000t MAP each.

275

325

375

425

475

525

$ p

t fo

b T

amp

a

DAP $pt fob Tampa: Early 2017 export price surgeMosaic now targeting $370pt fob for next round to Brazil

US export prices up sharply, but are still cheap, a few steps up from 7-year lows



Vietnam: There is fresh import demand for March shipment out of China, as

buyers stream back to market to make up for the heavy Q4 import purchase

deferral. There is new business emerging in the first days back to work after

the New Year/Tet break at $385pt cfr bulk and $395pt cfr bagged HCMC.

• But fresh offers for March load are said suspended as producers re-

assess local vs export price ambitions, and DAP vs MAP output priorities.

• Parallel with Europe: Buyer behaviour is similar to that in Western

Europe, where Q4 importer apathy (and tactical deferral) led to

widespread missed opportunities in November and December.

• Earlier bad calls: Many buyers in both Vietnam had expected Chinese

DAP would be available in abundance into Q1, under-estimated the draw

of the Chinese local market. The mis-calculation in Europe was both on

the scale of Moroccan commitments on NPs and NPKs to Africa and the

USA, plus the exposure to high swells interrupting Jorf Lasfar load rates.

South Asia India: Several importers are testing traders on price ideas for March-

shipment DAP, any origin. There is a hope (rather than a belief) among some

buyers and analysts that Chinese producers will return with export offers this

week, the first full week working after the Spring Festival (more opposite).

250

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2.700

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3.300

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$p

t fo

b C

hin

a e

xpo

rt D

AP

RM

B p

t D

alia

n c

orn

fu

ure

s &

do

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tic

DA

P e

x st

ore

No

rth

east

China: DAP vs Local corn; Rebound extends gains into peak pre-Spring demand

Local DAP markets have recovere around 65% of the loses during 18 months to Dec 2016, in which

local DAP had lost 28% (a). Export DAP has recovered one-third of its 38% price decline since early 2015 (b)

Dalian corn futures RMB pt China local RMB pt fot ex store northeast $pt fob China export Prohibitive export tax window

b.

a.

c.

In earlier times of big high/low export tax spreads, export DAP prices generally rebounded going into low-tax periods. This was as buyers held back until tax was low, then demand boomed.

2015 & 2016 tax rates were flat, with no market impact. But true to form, the removal of tax for 2017 triggered an increase. Despite past experiences, many buyers saw 2017 export tax removal as a cue for lower export prices, overlooking the huge power of local in-season demand surge.

2015

More India (from opposite)

This will depend on the Chinese

domestic market, how well it

performs for March dispatches, and

how concerned Chinese producers

are about channel inventories,

which provincial governments want

to see well stocked to control the

recently strong P, K fertilizer price

inflation.

Import NPs: A big importer is heard

to have resolved its near-term

phosphate import needs with

around 75,000t NP20-20 (13S) in

two lots. This is heard to be Gresik

material from Indonesia. Pricing is

heard in the low/mid $270s pt cfr.

Although this is lower on a product

tonne basis it is $440pt cfr on a 64-

unit basis, making DAP look cheap

on a comparative nutrient basis.



Morocco DAP, MAP, NP/Ks

OCP sales Kt

OCP Brazil 112

Ethiopia 100

Dec carry USA 55

Jan USA 50

Ivory C NPKs 12

Nigeria NPKs, DAP 74

Mali NPKs 38

Other W Africa 28

Dec carry West Europe 32

Jan West Europe 85

E Europe, Balkans 26

Turkey 0

N Africa (MAP) 0

Local 80

Total Sales 692

Production Estimate* Kt

Jan all Jorf grades 620

Dec carry to Jan 87

Total avails 707


OCP still has a sizeable carry through

from Dec to Jan, but the end of

turnaround time at Jorf is boosting the

granulation rates. New DAP business to

Nigeria is adding to strong existing

shipments to Ethiopia and USA.

Tunisia balance

Sales Jan Kt

GCT Italy 12

Turkey 0

France, Spain 14

Local 12

Total sale 38


Jan More stable rates 45

Total avail 98


GCT is still heard at below-capacity DAP

rates at Gabes. Operational stability is

improving but overall, rates are still

below 50% total capacity load.

Pakistan: Concerns is emerging among regular buyers over what to about

April-arrival DAP. Fresh imports are heard offered via traders from various

origins in the mid/high $370s pt cfr Karachi. Such prices could be stemmed

today out of Russia, Morocco, perhaps even the US. Buyers are in two minds.

• Averaging up: Those with earlier long positions taken for

January/February loading at lower numbers ranging $315-338pt cfr have

an opportunity to take fresh imports. Buying today would mean averaging

up through the $350s pt cfr. Some see this as a tactical move in case

there is further price increases, for example coming from ongoing

Chinese domestic market demand, and some purchasing from India.

• Concern over events in India: While India can afford to pay into the

$360s pt cfr, this break-even could increase with up-ticks in retail prices

(there are no formal MRPs anymore, just DoF recommendations to

remain “reasonable”. Pakistani local prices are influenced by Fauji locally

produced DAP, currently at import break-even near $350pt cfr. Like in

India, this could change if local prices are allowed to increase. Now that

the Pakistani government is subsidizing DAP, it seeks greater influence in

local DAP prices.

Nepal: AIC has floated a fresh tender for 20,000t bagged DAP for May/June

delivery to warehouses on the Nepal/India border. This business is usually

supplied into northeast Indian ports.

Middle East Saudi Arabia: Both Ma’aden and Sabic are sold out on commitments to

Brazil, Argentina and Australia on all MAP into late March. There is expected

to be a DAP cargo under G2G business to Bangladesh in late Feb/ March.

• DAP: There are likely to be some DAP avails held back in hand in case

MoU buyers in India or spot buyers in Pakistan are ready to step back in

at market rates for loading next month.

• Maintenance: The MPC plant is expected to take maintenance on two

lines from mid-February.

Europe, Africa West Europe: Benelux and German port prices are now going through in

greater volumes at $380-385pt fca/fot. Russian offers are still at $390-395 pt

fca/fot ex port store.

South Africa: Various MAP imports have shipped, and are still shipping, into

South Africa in late 2016/early 2017. This includes product from Morocco, the

US, plus 3 lots of Russian MAP on the water for February/March arrival.

These were variously priced in the range $330-350s pt cfr.

Ethiopia: EABC is heard planning several tenders for NPS, NPSB and

NBSZ. First reports are for a tender requesting 84,000t of NPSB to be floated

to close in late March to be shipped from May. Other reports suggest that a

total of 117,000t of all enriched 19-38 grades is required, suggesting another

two tenders for around 30-35,000t will also be floated.



Russia: There are reports from Russian producers that fresh bids for

March/April shipments to the Americas (mainly for the US are into the $370s

pt fob Baltic. At NOLA, MAP is today just $5pst short of a US Gulf delivered

value at $388pt cfr. This would be roughly in line for a low $370s pt fob Baltic

netback.

North America US export: Mosaic has reported selling 15,000t DAP to unspecified Latin

American markets at $358pt fob Tampa for March shipment. It then achieved

$360pt fob for 20,000t DAP, MAP to various Latin American markets also for

March shipment. It is understood part of these sales were to regular buyers in

Colombia, and other business to Brazil at $380pt cfr. Export prices have now

ramped around $40-42pt at Tampa, or around 13%, since early January.

• New offer targets: Offers to Brazil are now $390 pt cfr Brazil (see Latin

America items below).

Extending gains vs. local market values: NOLA DAP as below is

currently equivalent to around $343pt fob NOLA netback, a strong $15pt

below export. But the big local MAP premium over DAP puts NOLA MAP

equivalent at $365pt fob Tampa.

Tampa Feb line up P10

250

310

370

430

490

550

$p

t

Brazil MAP and NOLA DAP prices 2015-17: Q1 rally comparison 2016 vs 2017

Series3

Series5

MAP pt cfr Brazil

DAP pst fob NOLA

MAP rebounds in Brazil, now exceeding the February 2016 rebound, which saw prices surge from $325 cfr to $362 cfr in 4 weeks. The current surge has gone from $320 cfr to $380 cfr

Tampa delays: Mosaic finally

completed its intended 48,000t

combination MAP, DAP & MES

cargo for Australia on the KN

Forest, believed to be for Koch.

This vessel and other

programmed January-load

cargoes suffered lengthy

delays during January.

Included in these were other

Mosaic system lots for Brazil

were also delayed.



US DAP/MAP import arrivals since 1 July 2016 (metric) vs NOLA $/st price on arrival

Importer DAP MAP Origin Vessel Arrival DAP $ pst fob

United Suppliers 0 38 Phosagro/Russia Dolce Vita 7 July 299

Koch 25 30 Morocco Pacific Achievement 18 July 302

Gavilon 26 29 Morocco West Treasure 30 July 306

CHS 27 28 Morocco Oceanus 15 Aug 321

Koch 28 27 Morocco Britain Bay 17 Aug 321

Eurochem sys 0 14 Eurochem/Russia Part-cargo with N End Aug 321

Gavilon 26 27 Morocco Ileana N 17 Sept 318

ADM 25 12 Phosagro/Russia Roztocze 24 Sept 317

Koch 28 28 Morocco Virgo Collosus 28 Sept 315

Gavilon 25 25 Morocco Mare Traveller 30 Sept 315

Koch 25 25 Morocco Savitree Naree 2 Oct 312

Eurochem sys 0 12 Eurochem/Russia Part-cargo with N Early Oct 312

ADM 11 25 Phosagro/Russia Pola Uglich 30 Oct 305

Koch * 20 20 Morocoo Lake Dynasty Early Dec 295

United Suppliers 10 27 Phosagro/Russia Spring Sunshine Early Dec 292

YUC direct** 0 9 China urea combo Strategic Vision 2H Dec To WC USA

Eurochem sys 0 11 Eurochem/Russia Part-cargo with N Early Jan 305

Gavilon 25 30 Morocoo Nord Fuji 1H Jan 310

Gavilon 55 0 Yihua/China MG Sakura 2H Jan 315

YUC direct 66 0 China Crimson Ark 2H Jan 315

ADM 20 25 Phosagro/Russia Oceanus 2H Jan 315

Koch 25 30 Morocco Virtuous Striker Mid Jan 315

Growmark 20 20 Phosagro/Russia Julia Oldendorff 1H Feb 325

CHS 25 25 Morocco Kang Shun Delay to late Feb

Koch 25 30 Morocco Silver Lady Delay to end Feb

Eurochem sys 0 10 Eurochem/Russia Part-cargo with N End Feb To WC USA

Distributor 35 Phosagro/Russia JPO Dorado End Feb

Growmark 15 25 Phosagro/Russia Trenta 1H Feb

Total 552 617 Total both grades 1.17m tonnes

*includes 13,000t NP 12-46 S ** YUC to West Coast USA

US domestic: The latest trader business at NOLA puts DAP at a new high on

one barge sold at $335 pst fob. Other offers are at this level, mostly re-selling

Mosaic material taken in earlier business ranging $315-325pst fob over the

last few weeks. (Mosaic sales details this week follow on P 10)

Re-circulating the same DAP: With shipments of Mosaic product

coming cross-gulf still limited out of Tampa, some of the are simply re-

sales of the same material. Mosaic has so far two cross-gulf combination

shipments planned in 1H February, under way on the Mississippi

Enterprise & Carolina as a part-cargoes with Florida phosphate rock.

US imports

Slim volumes of US imports relative

to local demand has consistently

raised NOLA prices during the time

the import volume has gradually built.

As per our reporting since late Q4,

US imports have not been sufficient

to meet demand, given big US

exports and lower US production of

DAP/MAP (more MES).



Saudi balance DAP, MAP

Q3

Ma’aden India DAP (7 lots) 265

Pakistan 28

Yara, Brazil MAP 75

LDC Brazil MAP 65

Sabic India (4 lots) 110

CIL, ZIL, GSFC

East Africa 30

Indagro, Brazil 40

Q4

Ma’aden India (5 lots) 168

Trader Sudan DAP 17

Brazil 43

Pakistan (3 lots) 86

Tanzania, Moz 26

Vietnam 17

Australia 36

Sabic India (DAP 4 lots) 114

Trader Sudan DAP 15

Indagro Brazil MAP 40

Trader Kenya DAP 25

Jan

Ma’aden India (1 lots) 35

Nitron Argentina, Urug 30

Yara Brazil 30

Tanzania, Moz 15

Ameropa Australia 35

LDC Australia 30

Sabic India (DAP 1 lot) 25

East Africa 20

Pakistan (1 lots) 25

Total sale 1445


Q3 50/50 DAP, MAP 615

Q4 50/50 DAP, MAP 605

Jan ‘17 50/50 DAP, MAP 230

Total avail 1450


Ma’aden and Sabic have a slim carry

over at end Jan. We think MPC would

likely be scheduled to take some

maintenance having not had down time

for around a year. In 2017 as in 2016,

Ma’aden will market 70% of the MPC jv

output, and Sabic the remaining 30%

• Going into the TFI US domestic conference (late last week and early

this week), Mosaic has reported selling 8 DAP barges for March loading

at its earlier target of $330pst fob NOLA. It has also sold 4 barges of MAP

ranging $345-355pst fob. During the steep phosphates bull-run so far this

year, Mosaic has stepped local prices up on a weekly basis. It has

typically built up solid volumes at each level before aiming another $5pst

fob higher.

• Next Mosaic offers: Mosaic has advised that its next targets are $335

pst fob NOLA for DAP and $355pst fob for MAP.

Tampa DAP/MAP line-up – February (plus MES in combo)*

Vessel Kt Destination Load

KN Forest 48 Australia 2

Nord Savannah 33 Maceio 3

tbn 15 Colombia 5

tbn 12 Central America 5

tbn 50 Australia 2

tbn 36 Brazil 2

Total 194

US import: The second intended January-load panamax from Morocco to the

US is now understood to be for 35,000t MAP and 20,000t DAP via Koch on

the MV Silver Lady. This will follow the first initially intended January OCP

panamax to the US (now early February) of 25,000t MAP and 25,000t DAP

completing next week on the MV Kang Shun for CHS.

• US Gulf import equivalent: The DAP price at NOLA is now equivalent to

the $360pt cfr US Gulf milestone. Mosaic MAP offered at $355pst fob

NOLA now touches $380pt cfr US Gulf equivalent.

Next Moroccan, Russian lots: Two further panamaxes are due from

Morocco as part of the February program, but these will likely not

complete until late February, and therefore not arrive until early March.

For now, the delays have contributed to higher US barge prices, and

better OCP netbacks. There are two Phosagro cargoes loading in Feb.

Latin America Brazil: Traders are offering $375-380pt cfr for March shipments of Russian

and Mexican 11-52 MAP. This is under an “umbrella” of Mosaic offers at $390

pt cfr Brazil.

• From South Africa: A trader is heard working South African export MAP

to Brazil for March shipment to Brazil in the high $370s pt cfr. This nets a

fob price not far off the top end of the earlier big round of South African

MAP imports (see below).

• Chinese 11-44 & 10-50: There are reports of granular 11-55 offered at

$318-320pt cfr for March shipment. Other minor volume offers of 11-44



Russia DAP, MAP balance

Phosagro sales Kt

Phosagro West Europe 45

Brazil (M, D, NPKs) 33

E Eur (M, NP, NPK) 45

Local, FSU (M, NPK) 185

Growmark USA (D, M) 40

IPL (MoU) India (D, NPK) 0

South Africa 32

container Africa (D,NPKs) 15

container SE Asia (D, NPKs) 20

Eurochem sales Kt

Eurochem E Eur, Baltic (M, D) 25

West Europe 22

Local, FSU (MAP) 40

USA (M combo) 15

Brazil Tocantins 35

South Africa (MAP) 30

Uralchem sales Kt

Uralchem Local MAP, NPK 12

E Europe MAP 12

Total Sales 607


Phosagro Cherepovets D 60

Cherepovets M 115

Balakovo M 65

NP/NPKs (all units) 190

Eurochem Fosforit 95

Belorechensk M 70

Uralchem 25

Total avail 620


Lithuania balance DAP

Lifosa Jan Kt

Eurochem Germany 17

France, Spain 15

Benelux 14

Baltic, East Eur 10

Total sale 56


Jan 65

Total avail 65


are heard from residual port storage at $345pt fot ex store, equating to

$315pt cfr, or at $375pt fot ex-port store for 10-50, in turn equivalent to

around $345pt cfr. These reflect direct nutrient equivalent in the low

$360s pt cfr for 11-52, a relatively slim $16-17 below actual 11-52 offers.

Other MAP alternative NP products: Apart from the 10-50, and 11-44

above, traders are offering a range of alternative enriched NPs and NPKs

from various origins. There are other formulations that look tailor made for

Brazil – these usually under trader requests for a particular formulation to

suit particular customer requests. One such is NP7-40-0 (5S) heard

indicated in minor volumes (bulk and containers) at $305-308pt cfr, or

roughly a $330pt cfr 11-44 equivalent. Other Russian NPS formulations

are also being talked.

• From the US: Mosaic's US MAP, MES export volumes to its Brazilian

operations are still relatively thin. There have been just 4 vessels moving

since the start of January, each one smaller than the typical handy-max

size seen in 2H last year. The latest lot is due into Maceio in late

February with 28,000t MAP, MES.

Mosaic import interest: There have been hints of Mosaic again

approaching traders for fresh 3rd party origin 11-52, but this may simply

be a continuation of the earlier discussions. Mosaic’s last import moves

raised Brazilian import MAP prices from $330-335 to $345-350 in several

days. The US producer is offering at $390pt cfr (as above).

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

$ p

t cf

r

Indian phosacid vs India DAP, NOLA DAP 2010-17

Phosacid $pt P2O5 cfr India DAP cfr India DAP pst NOLA barge

DAP surges at NOLA, but Indian import DAP still unmoved at below-market prices

The next key issue is Q1 phosacid for India, offered by OCP at a roll-over, but now potentially allowed to lapse to squeeze local DAP, NPK stock rebuild



Argentina: Profertil is heard to have awarded

Mekatrade 33,000t MAP, DAP in two part lots at

$368pt cfr and $381pt cfr, averaging the mid $370s pt

cfr. This was the best option vs offers from other

traders for the full volume in the low/mid $380s pt cfr,

and from Mosaic at $389pt cfr.

Uruguay: There are offers of Chinese 11-44 heard

from earlier trader long plays taken in the

low/mid $290s pt fob Yangtze River for mid-February

shipment. These are being offered around $315-320pt

cfr range, said to be in various N fert combinations.

Mexico export: There are reports of turnaround

operations due at Pemex in Mexico from late February

into March. The first avails after this turnaround, are

reckoned to be for shipment to Brazil (as above) after

a Pemex cargo to Australia is expected to complete.

PHOSACID MGA $pt P2O5 Q1 ‘17 Q4 ‘16

Morocco fob 495-690 495-695

India cfr 30d (see note) 560-580 580

West Europe cfr 725-770 755-775

Brazil cfr 740-750 740-750

$600pt P2O5 cfr India set retrospectively was since revised for

Q2 to $620 and $610pt for Q3, and with $580pt set for Q4.

International Prices $/tonne bulk

Profercy Phosphates & NPKs pricing represents last-known

spot or contract sales. In the absence of new trades,

competitive indications will apply; i.e. highest bid in a rising

market or lowest offer in a falling market. Netbacks on

contract sales, formula or otherwise may feature.

International quotes are for 4,000 tonne lots & above,

rounded up to the nearest US$.

Italics = no recent business; n.m. = no market

225

275

325

375

425

475

525

575

625

675

$ p

t fo

b T

amp

a

DAP $pt fob Tampa: Spot prices head lower into Q4 2015

Tampa reference is now testing last year's June & November lows in the mid $440s pt fob

First Tampa reboundin 18 months

Of the last four Tampa DAP bottom outs, three have came atthe turn of the year (2013/14, 2014/16 & 2016/17)



PHOSPHATE ROCK $ P2O5 Q4 ‘16

Morocco fob 31-33% 90-105

China fot 29-31% 53-60

Syria fob 29-30% n.m.

Peru fob 30% 56-70

Algeria fob 29-30% 64-65

Tunisia fob 29-30% n.m.

Egypt fob 30-31% 45-53

Egypt fob 27-28% 44-45

Jordan fob 34-36% 92-102

Togo fob 35-36% 110-115

Russia fob 38-39% 152-160

Russia domestic del ($ equ.) 38-39% 135-145

India cfr 29-30% 54-70

India cfr 33-34% 105-110

$600pt P2O5 cfr India set retrospectively has since been revised

for Q2 to $620 and $610pt for Q3, and with $580pt set for Q4.

INPUTS (+/- $pt of DAP) Feb (Jan) +/-

Ammonia cfr Tampa 320 (250) +15

cfr Morocco 315 (300) +3

cfr India 335 (305) +5

Sulphur plt cfr Tampa Q1/Q4 75 (69.55) +2.3

cfr N Africa Q1/Q4 85-87 (70) +6.5

spot ex-warehouse China 118 (114) +1.5

NPK, NP $ BULK 9 Feb 2 Feb

16-16-16 fob FSU 260-285 260-285

16-16-16 fob FSU China netbk. n.m. n.m.

10-26-26 fob FSU 265-285 265-285

20-20-0 fob East Europe 265-285 265-285

19-38-0 7S fob Morocco 280-281 280-281

10-26-26 cfr India 305-307 305-307

16-16-16 cfr China 320-327 320-327

9-25-25 cfr NW Europe 320-325 320-325

15-15-15 cfr W Africa 240-245 240-245

16-16-16 cfr SE Asia 345-350 345-350

16-20-0 cfr SE Asia 265-275 265-275

0-30-10 fot ex store Brazil 335-345 330-345

15-15-15 fot ex wks China* 288-300 285-300

15-15-15 (SOP) fot ex wks China 320-325 320-325

25-13-7 fot ex wks N China 265-268 260-263

10-10-20 fot ex wks S China 260-263 255-258

EU NPK, NP (inland €) 9 Feb 2 Feb

15-15-15 cif bulk Benelux 265-285 255-270

17-17-17 cif bulk France 285-295 285-295

0-25-25 cif France 325-335 290-295

8-24-24 del bgd Italy 315-325 315-325

20-10-10 del bgd Italy 315-320 315-320

8-24-8 del bgd Spain 295-305 295-305

20-10-10 del bgd UK £ 233-237 233-237

SSP $ BULK 9 Feb 2 Feb

Egypt fob 132-134 129-132

Spain fob ($ equiv) 133-135 132-133

Italy € fot bgd ex store 175-180 170-180

Brazil cfr 167-172 167-170

Brazil fot ex store inland 19-21% 235-243 235-243

Brazil ex-port store 18-21% 190-195 190-195

TSP $ BULK 9 Feb 2 Feb

Morocco fob 285-290 275-285

Tunisia fob 275-280 275-280

Mexico fob 290-295 285-290

China fob 265-285 255-265

Lebanon fob 275-278 270-275

Brazil cfr 300-305 295-305

Benelux. N France $ fob/fot 308-311 295-300

Speciality NPK, NP+S US$ Jan Dec

MKP fob China 925-940 915-925

MKP fot ex wks (local RMB) 6000-6050 6100-6150

MKP cfr West Europe 1085-1100 1065-1075

MKP cfr Brazil 1040-1050 1020-1035

Tech MAP 12-61-0 cfr EU* 755-765 735-750

UP 17-44 cfr West Europe 650-660 630-640

12-40-0 10S 1Zn fot Florida pst 353-355 330-335

MKP 0-52-34; UP = Urea Phosphate * Low-end Chinese

origin EU duty paid 6.5%



DAP $ BULK 9 Feb 2 Feb

Tampa, US Gulf fob 358-360 345-350

Simulated net on Brazil, Arg spot* 340-360 335-340

Metric netback from NOLA 340-348 338-340

Netback on Mosaic India system** 330-335 325-330

NOLA fob barge (st) 330-335 319-325

Florida fot (st) 330 330

KSA fob 344-346 330-345

Baltic, Black Sea fob 343-370 333-341

Morocco fob 350-355 345-355

Metric netbk from NOLA 344-348 328-320

Tunisia fob 355-360 340-350

China fob 360-375 355-360

China fot bgd ex wks ($ equiv.) 355-365 345-348

Mexico fob 350-358 345-350

Jordan fob 330-335 325-330

India cfr spot 339-341 339-341

Pakistan cfr 360-365 n.m.

Brazil cfr 370-375 360-362

Argentina, Uruguay cfr 375-380 365-370

Benelux, N France fob/fot 380-390 378-383

*Any-origin sales to Brazil, Argentina; *Mosaic India netback is now assessed basis prevailing retail values at Rs21,000 pt, subsidy still at Rs8,945pt; and net internal logistics, costs, taxes, forex

+China export tax at zero on DAP, MAP, NPs & TSP in 2017

MAP $ BULK 9 Feb 2 Feb

Baltic, Black Sea fob 343-375 332-340

Tampa fob 358-360 349-350

Morocco fob 350-360 342-345

KSA fob (formula netbk from Brazil) 350-360 340-342

China fob (10-50) 350-355 350-352

China fob (11-44) 300-305 300-305

Brazil cfr (11-52) 370-380 360-362

Brazil fot ex-port store (11-52) 425-432 420-425

Brazil cfr (11-44) n.m. n.m.

Brazil fot ex-store inland 120 d 465-475 465-475

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