a european commission perspective on climate-related ... · 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030...
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A European Commission Perspective on climate-related
investment in Energy
Dr. Karl Kellner, DG ENER, European Commission
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The EU 20-20-20 targets by 2020
Reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by 20%
Increase share of
renewables to 20% 100%
Reduce energy
use by 20%
-10% Current trend to
2020 -20%
20%
Current trend to
2020
Current trend to
2020
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Mind the gap!
1678 Mtoe
-20%
objective
status
today
1842 Mtoe business
as usual
1474 Mtoe Projections from 2007
Projections from 2009
20% Energy saving objective
* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses
Pri
ma
ry e
nerg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n*
(Mto
e)
2020
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
2005 2010 2015
GAP
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Benefits of meeting the 20% efficiency target are enormous
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Barrels of oil we do
not have to import
per year
Money saved at
conservative 73
EUR/barrel per year
Primary energy savings in 2020
=
368 Mtoe
=
2.6 billion
193 billion
EUR
= GDP of Portugal in current prices
(2010)
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Costs of not filling in the gap are too high
» Imports of 1.4 billion barrels of oil result in EUR
107 billion not being invested in EU economy
» Construction of 550 coal power plants and
accompanying infrastructure
» EU GDP will lose the net positive impact of
energy efficiency of at least EUR 34 billion
» 400 000 jobs will not be created
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Energy Efficiency Directive – direct and avoided costs
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Billio
n €
'08
Costs for investment in energy efficiency Costs for investment in power and steam generation and distribution Energy expenditureTotal energy system costs for stationary uses
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And can even return money to the state: Success stories in IRL ( + DE + FR + EE+..)
.SEAI Home Energy Saving (HES) scheme » Over 100.000 homes since 2009 » Net benefit for society between €106 million to
€518 million (depending on CO2 and energy prices)
» Support for 3000 full-time jobs in 2010 » Household savings average €450 per year » Every € spent delivers a net benefit of 5 € to
society! Source: Economic analysis of residential and Small-business energy efficiency improvements, Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, September 2011
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What is currently available at EU level?
. Cohesion policy funds (2007-2013): » 4.8 billion € for energy efficiency, RES 4.7b€, TEN-E 0.2 b€,
(up to) 4% of ERDF can be re-allocated to EE in housing . Intelligent Energy Europe Programme (2007-2013):
» 735 million € for ‘soft’ energy efficiency/renewables projects . ELENA Facility: » 97 million € for technical assistance to mobilise investments . FP7 ( Research Framework Programme) : 2.3 b€
. European Economic Recovery Programme (EEPR) : 4b€ (infrastrucures, offshore wind and CCS incl. "unspent" in 1st phase
. European Energy Efficiency Fund (EEE-F): » 265 million € for investments +20 million € for technical
assistance (TA) + 1.3 m€ for awareness raising (EPEC)
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What will be available at EU level?
.Next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (2014-2020) proposals: » Cohesion funding to allocate some €17 billion to
energy efficiency and renewable energy (doubling current allocations)
» Horizon 2020: €6.5 billion is to be allocated to research and innovation in "Secure, clean and efficient energy"
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Renewable Energies Policy after 2020: „Business as usual“ is not an option Renewables Communication of 6 June 2012
• Launch of process for future policy options and
milestones for 2030, in particular :
• smooth RE integration into Internal Energy Market (IEM)
• support schemes,
• increased use of "Cooperation mechanisms" and
• infrastructure essential incl storage, decentral/smart
• Three strategy options: new GHG goal, three national
binding targets and EU wide targets (for three sectors)
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Beyond 2020 : Energy Roadmap 2050 .Reference document for all future initiatives .Long-term and system wide perspectives .Relation to Europe 2020 Strategy: kick-start –
long-term sustainability of energy system transition
.Guidance from Council, Parliament – would reduce policy uncertainty, notably for investors
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Trio of objectives continues to make
sense
.Investment expenditure up, BUT external fossil fuel
costs down compared to current policies scenarios .Where are the increases in investments?
- Demand side, far more than supply side - transport,
buildings (60 b€ p.y until 2020), appliances etc.
- Power plants (RE 2/3) and grid (more than 100 b€
p.y. until 2020 )
- Extra grid investments – mainly distribution level(2/3) .Green growth & jobs within EU, quality of life
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2005 2030 2050
REF CPI EE DST high RES delayed CCS low Nuclear
Decarbonisation
brings substantial
fuel bill savings in
2050 with respect
to 2005 and
Reference/CPI
Compared with
CPI the EU
economy could
save between
518 and 550 bn €
in 2050 through
decarbonisation
under global
climate action
Savings are
largest in the high
RES scenario
EU: External Fossil Fuel Bill (in bn € of 2008)
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No Regret options: EE,RES,infrastructure
- Focus on energy efficiency ( EED etc)
- Focus on renewable energy sources
- moving further centre stage
- Delivering on growth & jobs
- Internal energy market increasingly important
for RES development
Communications on RES and on IEM, 2012
15 Source: European Commission |
Share of Renewable Energies in energy consumption reaches 2050 at
least 55 % and will be 45 % points (ppt) above the current share of about 10 %.
Energy Roadmap 2050: Renewables is „No Regrets“-Option Share of renewable energies in energy consumption %
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- Focus on Infrastructure .New sense of urgency and collective responsibility .Energy infrastructure proposals 2010, 2011 – proactive planning, support of European public good investments ("Connecting Europe Facility", 50b€ fund of which 9,12b€ energy) .Engaging society
Energy infrastructure proposals 2010, Oct.2011 .High public and private investments is crucial –
e.g. Pilot Project Bonds, RTD / deployment c
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Reliance on markets .Low-carbon, energy efficient options emerging on supply and demand sides .Cost-effectiveness calls for well-designed markets open to these resources, integrated across Europe, with cost-reflective prices .Support – targeted, proportionate, include phase-out provisions .Interventions by MS – coordination increasingly important
Communication on IEM 2012
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Thank you !
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_de.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/index_en.htm