2011/05/14

1

A LOW CARBON FUTUREwith

HYDROPOWERB. BARTA PrEng

Hydropower Interest GroupSustainable Energy Society of Southern Africa

Cell: 073 177 6045Email: bartab@iafrica.com

PO Box 70439, Bryanston. 2021

A LOW CARBON FUTUREBasics of energy strategy suggestion

Present and future energy generation means:

• Cleaner coal power (e.g. Integrated gasification combined cycles – IGCC)

• Natural gas (OCGT, CCGT - SA’s gas fields)• Nuclear energy (presently under worldwide

scrutiny – favored inevitably as future option)• Renewable energy sources – defined as the

type of energy sources that occurs in the environment naturally and repeatedly as biomass, wind, solar, hydro and ocean power

2011/05/14

2

WORLDWIDE ENERGY CONSUMPTION TRENDS BY TYPE OF ENERGY SOURCES

WORLDWIDE ENERGY GENERATION BY TYPE OF ENERGY SOURCES

(present times)

2011/05/14

3

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT OPTIONSavailable in South Africa

• Intensify energy demand managementpractices (i.e. energy use efficiency andconservation by the end users)

• Apply cleaner coal energy generation(e.g. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle,Carbon Dioxide Sequestration, etc.)

• Exploit alternative energy resources(i.e. natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy technologies : biomass, solar, wind, hydro)

• Promote mixture of all options

GREEN ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES• White Paper on RE (November 2003)• Government’s target of 10 000 GWh/a from RE

sources by 2013 • WP targeted RE resources/technologies:

(i) biomass(ii) solar radiation(iii) wind(iv) hydropower (mainly small scale) and where applicable:(v) ocean wave/tidal power

• New approach: Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010and Policy-adjusted IRP up to 2030 (April 2011)

2011/05/14

4

HYDROPOWER WIDE DIVERSITY OF SCALES

Category Power output Typical generation time (%)

• Pico up to 20 kW 10 – 35• Micro 20 to 100 kW 10 – 35• Mini 100 to 1 MW 10 – 75• Small 1 to 10 MW (?) 35 – 85• Macro > 10 MW 35 – 95

NB: Generation time values based on available records and hydrological conditions of plant category

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT KEY STAKEHOLDERS

• Department of Energy (DoE) / NERSA - policy• Department of Water Affairs (DWA) / TCTA –

water transfer and storage infrastructure• ESKOM/SASOL – water infrastructure• Metropolitan and Local Municipalities –

water and wastewater infrastructure - SALGA• Water Utilities – infrastructure - SAAWU• Independent Power Providers (IPPs) with

IDC, CEF, SANRIA, DBSA and various other banks

2011/05/14

5

OPPORTUNITIES IN SMALL SCALEHYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN SA

• Refurbishment/upgrading of existing plants in ownership of municipalities or DWA: 70 GWh/a

• Hydropower sets to existing (new) dams(300 dams in SA are suitable): 500 GWh/a

• Inter-basin Water Transfer Schemes (WTS)(at gravity flow components): 300 GWh/a

• Municipal/water utility distribution systems -in line hydropower (for own use or supply to regional/ national grid): 250 to 500 GWh/a

• “Greenfield” hydropower sites (available more than 5000 MW around SA if storage regulated)

DISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCESIN SA – Mean Annual Precipitation

2011/05/14

6

DISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCESIN SA – Annual Surface Runoff

SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWERDISTRIBUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA

2011/05/14

7

OLDEST EXISTING HYDRO IN SA “GREENFIELD” HYDRO SITE

GREEN ENERGY FROM HYDROPOWER Refurbishment/upgrade

2011/05/14

8

Major existing dams and inter basin transfers in SA

HYDROPOWER FROM INTER-BASIN WATER TRANSFER SCHEMES

“Best-to-develop” existing Inter-basin WaterTransfer Schemes for hydroelectricity generation:• LHWT via Ash River in SA (18 MW+)

NB: 7 MW recently commissioned along the Ash River

• Assegaai to Vaal WTS (23 MW)• Buffalo to Vaal WTS (1,5 MW)• Orange-Fish-Sundays (25 MW)• Usutu to Vaal WTS (5 MW)

NB: Future transfer: Mooi to Umgeni (? MW)

2011/05/14

9

Water Transfer SchemeORANGE-FISH-SUNDAYS

GREEN ENERGY FROM HYDROPOWER Gravity low and high head infrastructure

Idle dam infrastructure Idle irrigation canal - EC

2011/05/14

10

GREEN ENERGY FROM HYDROPOWER Water supply and distribution systems

GREEN ENERGY FROM HYDROPOWER Water supply and distribution systems

Typical hydro turbine types in hydropower sector

Hydropower on deep South African mines

2011/05/14

11

Micro-hydropower installationsWaterwheel and hydraulic screw applications

MACRO HYDROPOWERDISTRIBUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA

2011/05/14

12

IMPORTED HYDROPOWER POTENTIALin the SADC region

Country Hydropower installed

(MW)

Potential available

(MW)

Angola 291 12 000Botswana Nil -DR-Congo 2 442 60 000Lesotho 76 450Malawi 245 600Mozambique 2 184 12 500Namibia 240 120South Africa 2 267 17 520Swaziland 62 200Tanzania 396 3 000Zambia 1 670 6 000Zimbabwe 666 1 500Total 10 539 113 890

GREEN ENERGY FROM HYDROPOWER Hydropower from wave and tidal movement

2011/05/14

13

DISTRIBUTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN SOUTH AFRICA

A LOW CARBON FUTUREis depending on the hydropower

2011/05/14

14

FOREMOST ADVANTAGES IN DEVELOPING HYDROPOWER

• Multiple use of water in non-consumptive manner (no pollution/losses)

• Technology is robust, high-efficiencyand long lifetime (up to 20 - 30 years)

• Peak load energy optimising• Enables meeting fluctuation in energy

demand• Highest energy “payback ratio”• Indispensable back-up for other energy

generation sources

BARRIERS/CHALLENGESIN DEVELOPING HYDROPOWER

• Environment Impact Assessment (EIA)• State (public) ownership of vital resource/

infrastructure (access, servitudes, etc.)• Water Use Permit as per National Water

Act (No. 36 of 1998) - exclusive to hydropower

• Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)• National Energy Regulator SA license• Funding constraints

2011/05/14

15

RENEWABLE ENERGY FEED-IN TARIFF(REFIT)

NERSA’s REFIT values (March 2009):Technology Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff

(Rand/kWh)

• Wind 1,25• Small hydro 0,94 (larger than 1,0 MW

but smaller than 10 MW)

• Landfill gas 0,90• Concentrated solar 2,10

NB: Appropriate tariffs under review by NERSA for other RE technologies

INTERGATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP) estimates by DoE/NERSA

Salient estimates as per Draft IRP (November 2010) :

Prior 2010:• ESKOM’s medium term programme: 10 000 MW• Nuclear energy (delivering in 2023): 9 600 MW• Wind energy (Eskom + REFIT): 3 900 MW• Other RE sources (REFIT): 1 025 MW (?)• Solar energy (REFIT): 400 MW

After 2020:• Further RE sources: 7 200 MW• Imported hydropower from abroad: 3 349 MW

2011/05/14

16

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY/NERSA REFITProgramme/Guidelines

• Request for Information (RFI) into REFIT Programme yielded some 20 000 MW potential Renewable Energy (RE) capacity

• Renewable Energy Purchasing Agency• Qualifying Renewable Energy Generators

(RE Generators)• Power Purchasing Agreement (PPA) – final

version by DoE/NERSA due at end of Feb 2011

Department of Water Affairs standing on hydroelectric development (August 2010)

• DWA acknowledged that certain dam sites may be used for commercial purposes

• Water Use License may be issued providing that requirements of NWA are satisfied (Act No.36 of 1998, Section 4, 12 and 27 particularly)

• Public Private Partnership (PPP) models to be preferably applied in hydropower development

• DWA determined tariffs on hydroelectric energy output (see next slide):

2011/05/14

17

DWA TARIFFS ON HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY OUTPUT (August 2010)

• Hydropower development integrated with DWA’s infrastructure (e.g. dams, canals, pipelines, ect.):(i) fixed charge: Rand 10=00/kW per annum(ii) variable charge: Rand 0,01/kWh output

• Hydropower development downstream/upstreamof DWA’s infrastructure (not integrated):(i) fixed charge: Rand 5=00/kW per annum

(ii) variable charge: Rand 0,01/kWh output

DWA INFRASTRUCTURAL PROJECTSbetween 2006 and 2026

Projects proposed under the National Water Resource Strategy (2004) for the future development are:

• Five (5) future large dams primarily for irrigation in theLimpopo, KZN, N. Cape (e.g. Vioolsdrift), andW. Cape ultimately yielding some 340 millioncubic metres per annum – hydropower to consider

• Eleven (11) future large-scale water projectsfor residential, industrial and mining purposesultimately yielding another 630 million cubicmetres per annum – hydropower to consider

2011/05/14

18

HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IN SA(2010 update)

Installed Estimatedcapacity (MW) potential (MW)

• Macro hydro – (larger than 10 MW)

(i) imported hydro 1450 36400 (ii) pump storages 1580 10400(iii) dams/transfers 662 6990

• Small hydro – situated at dams, canals, pipelines

(all types smaller than10MW) 38 247

INTERGATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP)estimates by Hydropower Interest Group/SESSA

Realistic conventional “green” hydropower uptake curve(as in 2011)

Firm 300 MW by 2016another 400 MW by 2020

further 1 100 MW by 2030 Totaling to some 1 800 MW over next 20 years

for own use or by REFIT’s PPA or Bilateralagreements primarily along the Public PrivatePartnership principles providing that severalregulatory requirements will be adjusted to speed-up licenses application processes and REFIT limits

2011/05/14

19

INTERGATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP) Recommendations by HIG/SESSA

• The final IRP 2010 programme should allocate at least700 MW for the development of conventional (green) hydropower prior to 2020

• REFIT PPA benefits to extend below 1MW and above10 MW enabling all IPPs to participate in this programme

• PPP models will applied where applicable but other models to be allowed in hydropower development

• To consider average lead time for the development of a small scale hydropower scheme (<10 MW) at 3 years

• To acknowledge current installation cost of small scale hydropower between Rand 10 and 15 million per MWdepending on type of plant within the border of RSA

A LOW CARBON FUTUREPolicy-adjusted IRP by 2030

Energy Energy Policy-adjusted Proportionalsource generator IRP (MW) break-down (%)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Coal Coal-fired steam 41 071 45,9Gas Open-cycle GT 7 330 8,2

Combined-cycle GT 2 370 2,6Nuclear New nuclear PSs 11 400 12,7Hydro Pumped storages 2 912 3,3

Imported hydro 4 759 5,3Wind Wind farms 9 200 10,3Solar Concentrated SP 1 200 1,3

PV 8 400 9,4Other Alternative & Renewable 890 1,0---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 89 532 100,0

2011/05/14

20

INTEGRATED RESOURCE MANAGEMENT INCLUDES HYDROPOWER

Are we going to harnessavailable hydropower ?

THANK YOU