a report by the economist intelligence unit august 2016 · pdf filecanback a report by the...

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A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit

Getting ahead of the curveGrowth in Asia’s emerging consumer landscape

August 2016


© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20161

1. Asia’s evolving consumer landscape 3

2. Positioning portfolios for growth 8

3. Mapping geographies to the life cycle 11

4. Takeaways and suggestions 13

5. About EIU Canback 14

6. Contact us 15

Contents



W ithout a robust view on future consumer demand, sustainable growth through strategy development

is not possible. Asia’s rapidly evolving consumer landscape presents a challenge to companies

striving to keep their product portfolios relevant and positioned for growth across markets. This EIU

Canback special report explains how Asia’s consumer landscape will evolve over the coming decade and

how companies can capture this growth by leveraging analytics to anticipate turning points such as take-

off or plateau points in the life cycle of a product category.

Key findings

Asia accounted for 25.6% of global consumer spending in 2015. Yet, as a sign of the region’s vast

potential, three quarters of Asia’s consumers have not yet reached affluence levels to be considered

part of the mainstream consumer class.

The mainstream consumer class will increase from 23% of Asia’s population to 43% in 2025. India

will outshine China in growth of the mainstream consumer class. However, China will maintain a

large advantage in total spending, especially in premium segments.

China and India will account for three quarters of Asia’s increase in mainstream consumers over

the coming decade. Indonesia and Pakistan will make up for much of the rest.

Asia’s premium segment will outpace the mainstream segment. Asia’s premium consumers’ share

of the total population will rise from 5.5% in 2015 to 11.5% in 2025. Outside of India and China,

Indonesia and South Korea are likely to see the largest increases in the premium consumer base.

Understanding how consumer classes affect category life cycles is critical for building product

portfolios that are positioned to capture Asia’s growth.



Asian consumers have come a long way in the past decade. More than one-half of the population of China, which is now a middle-income country, now lives in cities. India’s economy has taken off

and is now growing faster than China’s. In 2015 Asia1 accounted for just over 25.6% of global private consumption, up from 19.8% a decade earlier.

There is still a long way to go. While Asia now represents just over one-quarter of global consumer spending, the continent accounts for 56% of the world’s population, underscoring the gap in incomes between Asian consumers and their counterparts in other regions. But that, too, is changing.

Not only is Asia arguably the world’s most diverse continent economically, culturally and politically, but the rapid pace of the region’s economic growth means that the consumer landscape is fundamentally reshaped every few years. In 2015, 2.2bn Asian still lived in marginalised economic conditions (see Exhibit A). By 2025 that number will have fallen by nearly 1bn, according to research by EIU Canback.

Such rapid change makes portfolio management a gruelling job for consumer-goods companies. Yet without a solid grasp of how the consumer landscape is likely to evolve, it is impossible for companies to position themselves for long-term growth.

1. Asia’s evolving consumer landscape

EXHIBIT A – Asia’s population by socioeconomic level(% of SEL by country, 2015)

Source: EIU Canback

80

40

20

50

100

10

90

30

70

60

0

LowerMarginalised

100% = 804m100% = 2.2bn

Upp

er m

iddl

eU

pperLower

middle

502m

147m194m70m

Mid

dle

6

20

34 37

39

8 8

19

3323

9

27

7

10

5

15

28

76

16

5

16

15

41

15

35

South Korea

Indonesia

Rest of Asia

Bangladesh

India

Japan

China

Taiwan

1 Excludes Australasia.



Mainstream consumers (see preceding text box for definitions) accounted for roughly one-quarter of Asia’s population in 2015. China and India, as a result of the sheer size of their populations, accounted for 35.4% and 18.5% respectively of Asia’s mainstream class (see Exhibit A). Although the two Asian giants’ populations are comparable in size, China’s earlier start in rapid economic growth means that its mainstream class is considerably larger than India’s. Yet there are multiple reasons why India will likely prove to be a more dynamic consumer market than China in the coming decade.

Over the course of the decade to 2025, Asia’s consumer landscape will shift dramatically. Nearly one-quarter of the region’s population—886m people—will move out of the marginalised class, while the mainstream class will double in size, increasing by 909m (see Exhibit B). But the major trends occurring in the coming decade will be different from those evident in the past ten years.

In the decade to 2025 India will account for 41% of the growth in Asia’s mainstream consumer class, compared with 34% for China. This is in stark contrast with the previous decade, during which Indian consumers largely took a back seat to their Chinese counterparts. Between 2006 and 2015

Defining socioeconomic levels

Much of the discussion surrounding Asia’s future as a consumer market centres on the region’s emerging “middle class”. However, using a centuries-old Western term to describe a vast emerging segment of society in a highly diverse region can be counterproductive. For effective portfolio strategy, it is important to have a precise and nuanced understanding of what the term “middle class” captures.

A useful framework for a general consumer classification in emerging markets is socioeconomic levels (SELs), which are based on a household’s minimum material living conditions. The framework’s key advantage is that it captures households’ true consumption profile, which arbitrarily defined income thresholds fail to do.

For instance, a household will be deemed to be “lower-middle class” if the residence satisfies minimum health standards and has amenities such as running water and flushing toilets but lacks basic household facilities such as an automatic washing machine. (Note: refrigerator ownership is not included as this is biased by climate.)

Using this framework, EIU Canback has categorised 914m individuals in Asia as mainstream consumers, referring broadly to price segments used by consumer-goods firms. The term “mainstream” is more appropriate than the commonly used designation “middle class” to address this segment. Given that mainstream consumers in Asia generally constitute the most affluent quarter of the population, “middle class” can be a misleading term. In the same vein, the term “premium consumer” is used to refer to the wealthiest subsegment of mainstream consumers.

Class equivalent Minimum material conditions Defining spending category

Upper

Prem

ium

Mai

nstr

eam

Resources to plan and invest in future Portfolio investment, tertiary education

Upper middle All goods and services PCs, smartphones, recreation, credit cards

MiddleBasic household facilities, comfortable living space

Cars, microwave ovens, DVD players

Lower middle Minimum healthy living space and sanitation Kitchen sinks, showers

Lower Formal living space Mobile phones, home flooring, washing machines

Marginalised None Food and beverage, utilities, public transport

Sources: EIU Canback; AMAI.

“In the coming decade, India will account for 41% of the increase in Asia’s mainstream class, compared with 34% for China.”



China’s mainstream class grew by 253m, representing 51% of incremental growth in Asia, compared with 127m or 26% for India.

There are multiple reasons behind this shift. First, China’s population has stabilised as a result of population-planning policies implemented in the 1980s, whereas India’s is still growing. Second, urbanisation in China is slowing as the majority of the country’s population have already moved to the cities, while India still hosts a large

majority of rural dwellers. Finally, over the course of the coming decade India’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 6.7%, compared with only 4.7% for China, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit.

None of this means that China’s consumption boom is over. While private consumption is set to grow at an average annual rate of 10.6% in India in the decade to 2025, compared with 8.1% in China2, Chinese households will still outspend Indian ones by a large margin. Chinese consumers will spend US$63.6trn over the next ten years, compared with only US$21.9trn in India. However, the nature of this spending will change.

China’s advantage in growth will remain in premium (upper-middle-class and upper-class) consumers. Chinese consumers are maturing and developing a taste for premium products and new experiences. At the same time they are increasingly individualistic about which brands they buy, more health conscious and more discerning about product features that appeal to personal preferences. First-time buyers of durable goods will be seeking to upgrade.

The majority of India’s new mainstream class, by contrast, will be entrants to the lower middle class. As was the case with Chinese consumers in the early 2000s, their consumption will be driven by upgrades in housing. Home improvements, appliances and furnishings will be an important part of

171

-886m

70

2015 Marginalised

416

299

3,962m5145

7442

Lower

293m

Source: EIU Canback.

198

83

MiddleLower middle

37

425m

25

4,278m

25166m

2025

45

81

209m

108m

212

103

Uppermiddle

111

Upper

China IndiaRest of Asia

EXHIBIT B – Asia’s population growth by socioeconomic level, 2015-2025

“China’s advantage in growth will remain in premium consumers”

2 US$ at current market exchange rates.



India’s consumption story. These consumers will be brand-conscious, and purchases are likely to be driven by aspirations rather than well-defined personal preferences.

Outside India and China, key growth markets for mainstream consumers are Indonesia and Pakistan (see Exhibit C). Premium consumers will constitute a large part of that growth, especially in countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea. The EIU expects Asia’s premium consumer class to grow from 217m in 2015 to 492m in 2025, by which time it will account for 27% of the mainstream consumer base. Companies will want to ensure that their portfolios are amply equipped with brands and categories that can capture a share of this growth.

Source: EIU Canback.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

30.0

50.0

-10.0

-20.0

10.0

Viet

nam

Phili

ppin

es

Paki

stan

Indo

nesi

a

Indi

a

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sri L

anka

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

Bang

lade

sh

Chin

a

Mya

nmar

Mainstream (%)

of which Premium (%) of which Premium (m)

Mainstream (m)

10-y

ear C

AGR

(%)

EXHIBIT C – Growth in mainstream and premium consumer class, 2015 - 2025

Incr

emen

tal g

row

th in

pop

ulat

ion

(m)

“Asia’s premium consumer class will grow from 217m in 2015 to 492m in 2025.”



Premiumisation through rediscovery

What do coffee, bicycles, burgers and beer have in common? These are all mature product categories that have been “rediscovered”. They exemplify a wave of premiumisation happening globally. For much of the 20th century mass manufacturing exploited efficiencies of scale to lower production costs and expand availability to mass-market consumers.

Yet today’s increasingly hedonistic and affluent consumers are no longer satisfied with the homogeneity associated with mass manufactured goods. At the same time, an increasingly well-educated workforce means that individuals have the know-how to innovate and develop new products. Put the two together and the result is rediscovery—the mass revival of artisanal production using modern technology and marketing techniques.

Making a cup coffee is no longer a part of one’s early-morning drudgery. Rather, it has become a scientific endeavour aimed at creating a culinary experience. Want to buy a bicycle? Your local shop will let you select from their home-designed parts and materials and assemble it by hand for you, not just so that you can ride it, but so that it can become part of your unique urban identity. Beer? Try the India pale ale brewed in the basement of the microbiology graduate who lives on your street.

Amid this wave of rediscovery, consumer-goods firms need to be asking themselves how they are positioned for the future: Which categories of goods are most likely to sustain billion-

dollar brands, and which are most at risk? How can line extensions or large brand variants be

successful in the market? Can large fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) win with

smaller brands? Should large FMCG producers bypass the retail channel with

direct-to-consumer offerings?The share of consumer-packaged goods sold by small producers

in the US increased from 23% to 25% between 2011 and 2015, and the trend is spreading to other markets. Even in emerging markets, consumers are leapfrogging large, mainstream brands and going straight for premium.

Rediscovered categories appeal not only to the individualism of today’s premium consumer, but also their ethics. Today’s consumers are increasingly willing to pay the premiums associated with the use of the most sustainable, organic and ethical production techniques—they even demand it.



The first and most critical step for consumer-facing companies is to understand how incomes affect category or segment growth. While it seems obvious to point out that incomes drive consumption,

the way that incomes relate to consumption varies significantly across categories.

A typical category life-cycle can be characterised as an S-shaped curved relating penetration rates to household incomes. Exhibit D shows one such example for Chinese provinces3 over time. Initially, low average incomes that mean affordability concerns inhibit growth. A take-off point is then reached when the bulk of the population begins to enter the relevant income segment.

2. Positioning portfolios for growth

EXHIBIT D – The S-curve for refrigerators in rural China, 1996 - 2014

Source: EIU Canback

80

40

20

50

100

10

90

30

70

60

0

110

1,000 10,000 1,00,000

Refr

iger

ator

s pe

r 100

rura

l hou

seho

lds

1996

2014

Rural net income per head (Rmb), log scale

Tier I: Emerging Tier III: Plateau

Plateau point

Take - off point

Tier II: High - growth

NingxiaShaanxi LiaoningSichuan ZhejiangShanghai

Hubei Hunan Jiangxi

Hitting the plateau? Time to premiumise

When consumer-facing companies find their growth beginning to stagnate, it is often because they have entered the final phase of the category life-cycle and have not invested in premiumising their portfolios. Ideally, a company should begin investing in premiumisation in the late stages of high growth (stage 2).

Naturally, premium products should have the rights intrinsics—they should be of high quality, and should conform to the highest

standards of ethics and sustainability. But product extrinsics also matter immensely. Small pack sizes, superior packaging materials and minimalist package design are typical features of premium extrinsics.

Expansion from basic categories into value-added categories (organic foods, for instance) is vital in a premiumising market. For recognised brands, this should be done through line extensions such as flavour variants, which according to EIU Canback research tend to outperform new brands globally.

3 Subnational analysis is particularly instructive, as there tends to be greater cultural and regulatory homogeneity and less noise.



The second turning point occurs after the bulk of the population has shifted into the relevant (higher) income brackets. Penetration of the category as a whole will then begin to plateau. As penetration approaches the plateau point, value segments will start to decline and premium segments will enter a high-growth phase. Understanding these key turning points in the life cycle is critical for effective portfolio management.

Different categories will exhibit S-curves of varying shapes and sizes (see Exhibit E). In some categories the cycle is incomplete as Asian countries have not yet reached high enough levels of

Tier III: Plateau

Tier II:High-growth

EXHIBIT E – Select Asian category life cycles, 1990-2015

Source: EIU Canback

Indonesia MalaysiaIndiaThailand VietnamSouth KoreaPhilippines SingaporePakistan

China JapanHong Kong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1,000 10,000 100,000

Cars

per

1,0

00 p

eopl

e

Tier I: Emerging Tier II: High-growth

Tier I: Emerging

Cars Protein

GDP per head (PPP$) GDP per head (PPP$)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1,000 10,000 100,000

Gram

s pe

r hea

d pe

r day

Exhibit E1 – Most Asian countries are entering or have entered a high-growth phase and there are no clear signs of a plateau. Singapore and Hong Kong are outliers due to high costs of car ownership.

Exhibit E2 – Protein consumption increases dramatically beyond the take-off point. China exhibits above-average protein consumption due to extremely low rates of vegetarianism.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1,000 10,000 100,000

Tonn

es o

f oil

equi

vale

nt p

er h

ead

GDP per head (PPP$) GDP per head (PPP$)

Tier I: Emerging Tier II: High-growth

Energy Mobile phones

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1,000 10,000 100,000

Subs

crip

tion

s pe

r 100

peo

ple

Exhibit E3 – Energy consumption shows a clear take-off point, but the pattern less clear for developed Asian economies. Hong Kong’s lack of heavy industry makes it an outlier.

Exhibit E4 – Technology products were generally introduced after each market was already in the income growth zone. Hence penetration takes off simultaneously in all markets.

Tier II: High-growth



income to enter the plateau stage. In these cases, a simple solution is to introduce other, more affluent, proxy countries that have passed the plateau point. Careful consideration should be given to ensuring that these countries are comparable. For example, when considering car ownership rates, the proxy country should have similar levels of road and population density, fuel prices and public transport availability.

It is also instructive to examine outliers that sit outside the S-curve. In the case of cars, Singapore and Hong Kong have significantly lower levels of ownership than their average income levels would lead one to expect. This is largely owing to high import tariffs and other regulatory costs imposed on car owners. With regard to protein consumption, religion plays a large role, as certain strands of Hinduism and Buddhism encourage vegetarianism. Hong Kong has unusually low levels of energy consumption for structural economic reasons and because of the near-absence of heavy industry there. Any S-curve analysis should properly account for these factors, which otherwise would cause distortions.

Pack size: Addressing affordability, affordably

While targeting different socioeconomic levels often requires costly product development and innovation, consumer-goods companies can also employ cost-effective ways to market across socioeconomic categories. Changes in pack size are a simple yet effective way to do this. But determining optimal pack size is far from a straightforward exercise.

EIU Canback research suggests that larger “sharing” packs for products where convenience is less of a concern, such as snacks

and beverages, allow companies to charge lower prices per litre or per gram, enhancing the value perception for price-sensitive households.

This contrasts with the approach often adopted for cash-strapped consumers at the extreme low end of the income spectrum, for whom day-to-day liquidity can be an issue. Smaller pack sizes, such as the “single serve” packs used by P&G for shampoo, may then make sense as they reduce the cash threshold for purchase. Conversely, at the higher end of the income spectrum small pack size can be an important premium cue and can signal high product quality.



T ime has shown that throwing every product at every market is a recipe for failure. Focused investment in the right products for the right consumers is critical to success, and companies with

narrow portfolios tend to outperform those with wide ones. Using the constructed category life-cycles (S-curves), businesses can develop a targeted and comprehensive approach to portfolio strategy for geographic markets and align themselves with consumer segments—especially those on the verge of experiencing high growth.

Taking vehicle body types as an example (see Exhibit F), we see that the high-growth stage for automotive consumers spans a broad range of markets, with average incomes ranging from US$5,000 to $55,000 (at purchasing power parity exchange rates). Yet each segment has its own “sweet spot”.

Within the next ten years the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, will barely enter the high-growth stage for cars, but rapid growth in motorcycle ownership can be expected in the next 3-4 years. However, in the Indian technology hub of Bangalore the growth cycle for cars will be in full swing in the coming decade, as purchasing power levels in the city are on the cusp of generating rapid growth for multiple segments. The Chinese coastal city of Qingdao, by contrast, will already have exited the high-growth stage for mainstream vehicles and sales will be driven mainly by upgrades.

Together, China and India will account for three-quarters of the increase in the number of mainstream consumers in Asia, with Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Vietnam making up most of the remainder. But it is more useful to think of Asian markets as consisting of several hundred cities

3. Mapping geographies to the life cycle

EXHIBIT F – Mapping cities to the high-growth stage (illustrative example for automobiles)(column width indicates increase in middle and upper class)

Source: EIU Canback

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000

GDP per head (PPP$)

MPVs

CUVs

Pick-ups

Motorcycles

Sports sedans

Premium/luxury sedans

Hybrids

Full size sedans

Mid size sedans

Compact cars

Sub-

cate

gory

/seg

men

t

Qing

dao

2025

Qing

dao

2015

Bang

alor

e 20

25

Bang

alor

e 20

15

Dhak

a 20

15

Dhak

a 20

25

4.7%

5.9%4.2%

10 - yearCAGR



rather than a few dozen countries. Total annual consumer spending in Asia will grow from US$9.4trn in 2015 to US$13.8trn by 2025, with 30% of that growth coming from 30 cities in the region (see Exhibit G).

The challenge for companies is to deepen their penetration of Asia’s consumer markets beyond these megacities. To capture 50% of overall spending growth will require a footprint in 184 cities across the region. Taking a more targeted approach can help. For instance, 50% of upper-class consumers in Asia live in only ten cities. Understanding socioeconomic levels and category life-cycles can therefore be a powerful tool for developing a highly targeted portfolio strategy.

Naturally, in a region as diverse as Asia there will be unpredictable twists and turns in consumer preferences and economic growth. Companies will find themselves grappling with the organisational challenges of harnessing such rapid change. But the EIU’s research suggests that there are lessons to learn from the experiences of Asia’s more mature markets—lessons that can provide a useful framework for companies that are thinking about their portfolios and future sources of growth.

EXHIBIT G – Asia’s top 30 cities in consumer spending growth 2015-2025(column width indicates increase in middle and upper class)

Source: EIU Canback

80

120

100

60

20

40

0

140

Nan

jing

Chon

gqin

g

Bang

alor

e

Chen

gdu

Shan

ghai

Guan

gzho

u

Tian

jinKu

ala

Lum

pur

Toky

o

Jaka

rta

Beiji

ng

Shen

zhen

Delh

i

Dhak

a

Hyd

erab

ad

Fosh

anNa

goya

Bang

kok

Hon

g Ko

ng

Suzh

ou

Taip

ei

Ahm

adab

ad

Chen

nai

Han

gzho

u

Kolk

ata

Man

ila

Seou

l

Mum

bai

Dong

guan

Sing

apor

e

Priv

ate

cons

umpt

ion

incr

emen

tal g

row

th

2015

-202

5 (U

S$ b

n

IndiaChina Other

8.5m

(increase in middle andupper class 2015-2025)

“Consumer spending in Asia will grow from US$9.4trn in 2015 to US$13.8trn by 2025, with 30% of that growth coming from 30 cities in the region”



Strategic planning at any organisation involves a combination of setting long- and medium-term priorities and identifying which levers to pull:

1) Invest with a long-term vision based on category life-cycles:

Build a product portfolio framework based on a robust analytical understanding of the future consumer landscape

Position your portfolio to capture growth opportunities generated by turning points

Make sure that there is a good fit between portfolio and geographic priorities

Understand what drives demand for your products – most companies have a vague idea but have never tested their thinking with rigorous analysis

2) Grow in the medium term through commercial strategy best practice:

Define consumer segments in a meaningful way rather than using arbitrary income thresholds or excessively broad definitions of the “middle class”

Develop an understanding of how these segments will evolve over time

Target geographies in a granular way—cities are a more useful way of thinking about markets than countries

Explore opportunities to market across consumer segments cost-effectively through innovation—for example, by changing packaging or pack size to complement consumer behaviour or offering direct-to-consumer service to meet the need for convenience

Use analytics to identify gaps in distribution in underperforming regions in order to performance-benchmark distributors and channels

4. Takeaways and suggestions



The Economist Intelligence Unit’s consumer practice – EIU Canback – is a management consulting firm working with senior management of the world’s largest consumer-facing companies. We offer a new type of management consultancy more deeply rooted in science and predictive analytics. Our ability to apply scientific theory from economics, statistics and other fields, is married with deep in-country experiences. This creates a competitive advantage for our clients.

At EIU Canback the aim of being “managerially relevant--analytically robust” is central to what we do. We are experts in translating the results of complex models into strategic recommendations that often challenge the norms. We help to create a compelling, data-driven narrative for change, and typically convey the results at the most senior level within our clients’ organisations.

We travel the globe to understand markets and deliver our work. Our consultants have worked on the ground in around 80 countries. In our analysis, we never look at markets or categories in isolation, instead always placing our findings in a regional or global context. We also draw on the heritage of the EIU in understanding the economic and political forces that shape our world.

Our work is underpinned by our own proprietary data. The Canback Global Income Distribution Database covers GDP, population, household income, socioeconomic class sizes, and income brackets data for every country (213), large subdivisions (696) and all cities with more than half a million inhabitants (997) in the world.

We work with our clients on multi-year efforts to enhance strategies and build organisational capabilities. From a growth perspective, this includes geographic expansion, identifying new markets, optimising portfolios, and improving revenue and profits through pricing decisions. We also provide operational due diligence support when growth opportunities are inorganic.

EIU Canback was acquired by the Economist Intelligence Unit in 2015 and is based in Boston. As part of the

Economist Group, we share the principles of independence and intellectual rigour.

About EIU Canback



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