a sectoral survey of relocation: a factual background ... · information report — to be entitled...

DI 49/2006 rev.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE (EESC)

CONSULTATIVE COMMISSION ON INDUSTRIAL CHANGE (CCMI)

A sectoral survey of relocation:

a factual background

Report by Reckon LLP

19 May 2006

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. SUMMARY....................................................................................................1Working definition of relocation....................................................................................................1

Our approach ..................................................................................................................................1

Sectors covered in report ..............................................................................................................1

Findings on the existence of relevant data .................................................................................2

Findings on relocation....................................................................................................................3Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................4

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA AND INDICATORS .......................................5External trade statistics ................................................................................................................5

OECD STAN database for industrial analysis ..............................................................................5

Structural Business Statistics (SBS) ............................................................................................5

Symmetric input-output tables......................................................................................................6

European Restructuring Monitor (ERM)........................................................................................6

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic fixed capital formation ...................................7

European industry and trade associations ..................................................................................7

3. SECTOR ANALYSIS .....................................................................................8The structure of the sector analyses ...........................................................................................8

Aerospace manufacturing .............................................................................................................9

Automotive industry .....................................................................................................................29

Cement ..........................................................................................................................................47

Chemicals......................................................................................................................................65

Electromechanical engineering ..................................................................................................83

Financial services ......................................................................................................................107

Food and beverages ...................................................................................................................117Glass industry .............................................................................................................................141

Iron and steel ..............................................................................................................................159

Knowledge Intensive Business Services .................................................................................177

Leather, clothing and footwear.................................................................................................201

Nonferrous metals ......................................................................................................................219

Paper and pulp ............................................................................................................................237

Pharmaceuticals.........................................................................................................................255

Plastics........................................................................................................................................273Railway equipment.....................................................................................................................291

Shipbuilding.................................................................................................................................309

Textiles........................................................................................................................................321

Wood manufacturing ..................................................................................................................339

APPENDIX 1: LITERATURE REVIEW.......................................................... 357

APPENDIX 2: MAPPING OF SECTORS ACROSS DATASETS ..................... 364

Summary

1

1. Summary 1 The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) adopted an Opinion on 14 July 2005 on “The scope and effects of company relocation”.1 The Opinion notes, in paragraph 2.6, that “some sectors will be affected more than others by relocation”. The EESC Bureau, meeting on the 12 July 2005, authorised the Consultative Commission on Industrial Change (CCMI) to draft an Information Report — to be entitled “A sectoral survey of relocation” — to explore this observation and to provide an assessment of relocation by sector. 2 The purpose of this report is to support the drafting of that Information Report by reviewing the empirical evidence on relocation across a set of 19 sectors in the European Union. The primary goals of this study are to compile and report what published relevant data exist, and, where relevant data on a given sector do exist, to provide a synoptic analysis of relocation. The analysis is to be cast at the level of the European Union (EU) and at the level of individual Member States. 3 The terms of reference for this report, drawn by the CCMI, are clear in setting out what is beyond scope. We are not to collect primary data; what is required is a review of existing and published data. In addition, we are not to present suggestions on policy options.

Working definition of relocation 4 There is no unanimous view on what is meant by relocation. As much can be appreciated from a review of the policy and academic papers and from discussion with stakeholders. We do not propose to revisit2, or to contribute, to this debate as we have been asked to adopt the definition set out in the EESC’s Opinion of 14 July 2005. In paragraph 1.18, the Opinion defines delocalisation — which, in the English version of the text is used interchangeably with the term “relocation” — as follows:

Delocalisation occurs when a business activity is totally or partially ceased, to be reopened abroad by means of direct investment.

5 The Opinion proceeds to distinguish between internal and external relocation (delocalisation); the former refers to instances where business is reopened in another Member State within the EU, and external where it is reopened elsewhere. 6 This report focuses on external relocation. However, attention will be drawn where the data suggest relocation from the old Member States, the EU-15, to the new Member States, the EU-10, or vice-versa.

1 European Economic and Social Committee (2005). “The scope and

effects of company relocation”, CCMI/014 – CESE 851/2005. 2 This said, Appendix 1 provides a brief review of competing

definitions of relocation found in the literature.

Our approach 7 Data on the volume or value of activity that is ceased in a Member State to be reopened by means of direct investment elsewhere are not consistently or comprehensively collected across sectors and across the EU. There are no data, therefore, from which to draw a direct assessment of relocation as defined above. 8 In the light of this, we have selected a set of indicators which, though imperfect measures of relocation, do have an association with it. We have drawn upon a review of the literature to help us define a set of relevant indicators. That set is listed in Table 1.1 overleaf. 9 Overarching that selection of indicators is the requirement that it be possible for them to be to computed on the basis of published data that are consistent and sufficiently comprehensive. 10 There is no direct correspondence between any single indicator listed in Table 1.1 and relocation. The extent to which productive activity has been transferred abroad cannot be inferred from examining, for example, trends in domestic production. Whilst domestic production will be affected by relocation, there are clearly many other factors, alien to firms’ decisions to relocate, that will also impact on it. The same is true for trends in trade balances, in employment levels, trends in the domestic production’s share of OECD consumption (reflecting the standing of the sector in the global market) and, indeed, for all of the indicators considered. 11 Because the indicators selected are only imperfect measures of relocation, it is critical to triangulate the different measures in order to draw an assessment of relocation that is robust. 12 The need to look across different indicators, and not to rely on any single one, is further substantiated by the fact that the datasets from which the indicators are drawn are themselves not perfect. Other than the methodological shortcomings that they might have, none of the datasets offer a comprehensive coverage of all sectors, in all Member States, over a sufficiently long period of time. 13 Section 2 describes in detail the indicators considered and the datasets used to compute them.

Sectors covered in report 14 This report focuses on 19 sectors. These have been selected and defined by the CCMI Steering Group: (a) Aerospace (b) Automotive (c) Cement (d) Chemicals (e) Electromechanical engineering (f) Financial services (g) Food and beverages (h) Glass (i) Iron and steel

Summary

2

(j) Knowledge Intensive Business Services (k) Leather, clothing and footwear (l) Nonferrous metals (m) Paper and pulp (n) Pharmaceuticals (o) Plastics (p) Railway equipment (q) Shipbuilding (r) Textiles (s) Wood

15 Seventeen of the 19 sectors relate to manufacturing. In 2003, there were just under 25 million people employed in these 17 sectors, accounting for 80 per cent of all manufacturing employment in the EU-25.3 The two sectors falling outside manufacturing are financial services and Knowledge Intensive Business Services. 16 Sectors vary in terms of how narrowly they are defined. The aerospace sector, for example, is relatively narrow: it covers the manufacturing of aircraft and spacecraft as well as the maintenance and repair of aircraft engines and the reconditioning of aircraft. Knowledge Intensive Business Services, on the other hand, covers a broader array of activities, including activities relating to real estate, to the renting of machinery and equipment without operator, to the renting of personal and household goods, to computer and related activities, to legal, accounting, auditing, architectural and engineering consultancy, advertising and industrial cleaning. The relevant subsections in section 3 set out the activities covered by each of the sectors.

3 Based on our analysis of Structural Business Statistics, Eurostat.

Findings on the existence of relevant data 17 The Structural Business Statistics (SBS) database, published by Eurostat, is the best available source of data to construct measures of activity. The dataset provides data on the value of production and employment levels for most sectors covered by this study. The SBS database covers all 25 EU countries and covers the period 1995-2003. 16 The SBS does contain some significant gaps. For example, the coverage of some Member States, notably Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Sweden is relatively incomplete for many sectors. Data for Germany and some EU-10 countries are available only for the period 1999-2003. No data on the financial services sector are available. The data on the shipbuilding sector are relatively sparse. Notwithstanding these gaps, it is still our view that the SBS offers the best data in a consistent manner across the EU and that it is to be preferred, on the grounds of better coverage, to Europroms, a database also published by Eurostat, and also containing data on production. 17 The COMEXT database, published by Eurostat, provides data on external trade to and from Member States. Data are available for the period 1995-2004 for the EU-15 countries and for the period 1999-2004 for the EU-10. 18 However, COMEXT does contain a few gaps. The database only covers trade in physical goods and therefore does not cover the activities falling within the Knowledge Intensive Business Services and within the financial services sector. Data on Slovakia and Poland are only reported for the year 2004. 19 In spite of these difficulties, the COMEXT database is sufficiently complete to be of value to this study.

Table 1.1: Selected indicators of relocation

Indicator Definition Source Domestic production Domestic production, in value terms and as a share of GDP SBS (Eurostat) Employment Employment in absolute terms and as a share of total domestic employment SBS (Eurostat) Share of OECD consumption

Domestic production as a share of consumption across OECD countries SBS (Eurostat), STAN (OECD)

Import penetration Ratio of imports to domestic consumption SBS, COMEXT (Eurostat) Self-sufficiency ratio Ratio of domestic production to domestic consumption SBS, COMEXT (Eurostat) Narrow input-output measure

Ratio of imported intermediaries from foreign X sector to the value added of the domestic X sector.

Eurostat

Wide input-output measure

Ratio of imported intermediate by domestic X sector to the value added of the domestic X sector.

Eurostat

Balance of trade Balance of trade (net exports), distinguishing between 4 groups of partner countries: all countries, EU-15, EU-10 and developing countries

COMEXT (Eurostat)

Foreign direct investment

Foreign direct investment, distinguishing between intra- and extra-EU-15, intra- and extra-EU-25 and FDI in EU-10.

Economy and finance – Balance of payment domain (Eurostat)

Investment in domestic capital

Investment in domestic fixed assets Annual national accounts data category (Eurostat)

ERM job loss Number of job losses due to relocation as reported in ERM database, distinguishing between areas of destination of relocation, to EU-10, to EU-15, to OECD and non EU and to developing countries.

European Restructuring Monitor (EMCC)

Note: SBS refers to Structural Business Statistics, STAN refers to Structural Analysis and COMEXT refers to Commerce Extérieur. For further information, please see Section 2 of this report.

Summary

3

20 The input-output tables, published by Eurostat provide a useful source of information to characterise “offshore outsourcing”. The tables allow for the construction of measures that indicate the penetration levels of imported intermediate goods in the domestic manufacturing process. Whilst reporting the penetration of imported intermediaries in a given year provides some insight, it is particularly interesting to observe how the penetration level varies over time. Unfortunately, these tables are not frequently produced; most Member States prepare them only every five years. Where that is the case, we have observations for two years, typically 1995 and 2000. Some Member States have produced these tables for only one year within our period of observation. As a result, useful information can be obtained from these tables for only ten Member States. 21 A further problem with the use of the input-output tables relates to the level of aggregation of the product categories as, for some sectors, the categorisation of activities is at a more aggregated level than the sectors being studied. For example, input-output tables are available for a set of activities labelled as “other transport equipment”, which groups together railway equipment, aerospace and shipbuilding. 22 The European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) database, published by the European Monitoring Centre on Change (EMCC), provides information on restructuring activity in the European Union. The database contains detailed information on the types of restructuring, including offshoring/delocalisation, the sectors affected and the number of jobs lost or gained. 23 While it is a useful source of information, the ERM dataset suffers from considerable methodological limitations arising from the way in which the data are collected. Data are collected by reviewing selected daily newspapers across the EU and taking note of reports of job losses due to restructuring. As a result, the database reports job losses even when these numbers are based purely on preliminary statements of intent by company officials. In reality, the actual numbers of jobs lost after relocation has occurred might be very different from initial projections. Such ex-post corrections are not easily monitored and therefore not incorporated in the database. We report the relevant figures from this dataset in the tables accompanying the discussion of each sector but do not rely on them for the purpose of drawing a view on relocation. 24 Furthermore, as with input-output tables, the ERM categorisation of sectors in ERM does not match easily with many of the sectors as defined in this study. For example, the ERM dataset reports jobs losses for a category denoted as “metals”; this covers activities in the steel and iron sector and activities in the sector of nonferrous metals. We resolved this problem by reclassifying the entries in the ERM database in line with the sectors we are considering; we did this on the basis of the additional, more detailed information reported alongside each entry.

25 FDI and domestic investment data are published by Eurostat. The data are broken down by activity and destination region. 26 We believe the association between FDI data and relocation is particularly noisy. Any investment by a domestic entity in a foreign firm acquiring a share greater than 10 per cent in the recipient firm is defined as FDI and is captured by the data. Not all overseas investments are made for the purposes of relocation and not all relocation is carried out by way of FDI. Further, the FDI data also captures the flow of disinvestments made by a domestic entity in the relevant foreign sector. 27 Confidence in FDI information is further dented by the fact that there are a relatively large number of gaps in the Eurostat data and that it is generally not possible to infer from the data the FDI flows from entities in a given sector in a given Member State which are directed to a particular country of interest (e.g. China, India or Brazil) or even to a more aggregated set of “developing countries”. Instead, and to ensure few gaps, the countries of destination need to be aggregated to the “Extra EU-25” level. 28 In addition, as with the input-output tables, the applicability of FDI data to study the sectors listed earlier is also handicapped by the fact that the classification used by the FDI dataset is at a higher level of aggregation than that the definition of the sectors in this study. The sector classification of Eurostat’s FDI dataset can only be matched with four of the sectors of interest to us: food, electromechanical engineering, Knowledge Intensive Business Services and financial services. For these sectors we report in this study the relevant FDI data. For the reasons summarily set out above we think there are considerable limitations in the usefulness of that data as indicators of relocation and our discussions of relocation in these sectors do not draw on them. Appendix 1 considers in greater detail the limits of the FDI data. 29 For some of the sectors, we have used data on activity levels that are published by the relevant industry associations. In most cases, these data complement information extracted from the datasets discussed so far. However, in the case of the shipbuilding sector, we have opted to use production and employment data from the Community of European Shipyards Association (CESA) rather than from the SBS database. We find that the activities under shipbuilding, as defined for the purposes of this study, are more closely reflected by the CESA data than by the data reported in Eurostat’s SBS. Furthermore, the CESA dataset has fewer gaps in coverage even though it only covers CESA member countries and only 14 of the EU Member States are members of CESA.

Findings on relocation 30 The analysis of the evidence on relocation for each of the sectors is set out in Section 3. On the basis of those analyses, we have set out a number of broad findings. 31 In all but two of the sectors studied, the data do not provide clear evidence of relocation at the EU level as a whole. The two sectors for which the data do suggest

Summary

4

relocation are textiles and the sector defined as leather,

clothing and footwear. These sectors are closely

associated in that the output of the textile industry is a

significant input in the manufacture of clothing and

apparel.

32 In the electromechanical engineering sector, the data

provide mixed signals. European output in this sector has

been falling gradually and employment has decreased

more substantially, and the sector’s share of the economy

has fallen between 1999 and 2003. Countering this trend,

Europe’s trade balance in this sector, particularly with

developing countries, has improved. Taken together, this

evidence could be interpreted to suggest that European

labour productivity has improved, leading to falling

employment, and that export performance has improved.

Conversely, the evidence could also be read as suggesting

that some activities are being relocated from Europe to

developing countries but that this is obscured in the trade

data because of increased exports to that same set of

countries.

33 The data do not uncover particular Member States from

which economic activity has generally relocated from.

Nor do they identify Member States that have, in general,

attracted activity relocated from elsewhere.

34 Other than the finding of relocation in the textiles and in

the leather, clothing and footwear sectors in Europe in

general, our analysis has identified only three other

instances where the data provide evidence of relocation.

In the chemicals sector, data suggest that relocation may

have occurred from the UK and from Slovakia. In the

railway equipment sector, the data suggest that there is

relocation from Germany. In the shipbuilding sector, the

data suggest that relocation may have occurred from

Germany and Denmark.

35 The data do not suggest that there has been significant

internal relocation towards the Member States in the EU-

10. In the two sectors where the data have identified

widespread relocation, namely Textiles and Leather,

clothing and footwear, the activity would appear to have

been transferred to developing countries. In fact, and on

the basis of trade data alone, the trade balance between

the group of EU-10 Member States and the group of EU-

15 Member States has tended to move in favour of the

EU-15.

36 We have found no grounds to associate the propensity

of a sector to relocate with the relative maturity of the

sector.

Structure of the report 37 The rest of this draft final report is structured as follows:

(a) Section 2 describes the datasets used and sets out the

definition of the indicators used;

(b) Section 3 contains the set of sector specific analyses;

(c) Appendix 1 reviews the relevant literature and

includes a list of references; and

(d) Appendix 2 draws the correspondence between the

sectors studied in the report and the categorisation of

data used by the datasets on which we have drawn.

38 An accompanying Excel file contains the data

underlying the analysis set out in this report.

Description of the data and indicators

5

2. Description of the data and indicators

1 This section provides a detailed description of the sources of data used in the report along with a description of the indicators used to characterise relocation. Much of the information on the databases used is collected from the relevant metadata published by Eurostat.

External trade statistics 2 External trade data have been extracted from the COMEXT database published by Eurostat. The subject of this database is the movement of goods across frontiers of EU Member States. 3 Extra-EU trade data are collected using the statistical copy of the customs declaration. Intra-EU trade statistics are collected directly from trade operators. However, any entity registered for Value Added Tax (VAT) in a Member State carrying out intra-EU trade and being above a certain threshold is obliged to report the value of the trade to the national statistical authorities. 4 The main indicators published in this database are imports and exports, by value and volume, organised by groups of reporting countries, partner countries and product groups. For the purposes of this study, external trade by value (in Euro million) has been used. 5 The database covers external trade for each reporting country to and from non-EU countries and other EU Member States. 6 The products covered by this database include all movable and physical goods. This database does not cover trade in services. The database covers more than 10,000 different products classified according to the Combined Nomenclature (CN). 7 The database covers all 25 EU Member States. For EU-15 countries, the database covers the period 1995-2004. For the new Member States, EU-10, the database covers the period 1999-2004. 8 The trade balance indicator used in this study is derived from the imports and exports data from COMEXT. The import and export data were aggregated to the level of product groups that most closely matched the sectors defined for the purposes of the study. These data were further aggregated according to groups of partner countries to obtain figures for extra-EU trade, intra-EU trade and trade with developing countries. For the purposes of the study, developing countries were defined as countries that are not members of the EU and that are not members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Trade balance (or net exports) is calculated as exports minus imports. EU-level aggregates for extra-EU trade were calculated by summing the values of extra-EU exports and imports for each Member State.

OECD STAN database for industrial analysis 9 The OECD Structural Analysis database (STAN) is published by OECD and includes data on output, labour input and international trade for different activities. 10 The database covers all the OECD member countries and all years from 1995 to 2003. It presents data compiled from the member countries’ national accounts. 11 The activities in the database are classified according to International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC) Rev. 3. 12 The STAN database is used to compute the OECD Consumption variable, calculated as the sum of production and imports less exports in the OECD countries. We use this variable as a proxy for global consumption.

Structural Business Statistics (SBS) 13 The Structural Business Statistics (SBS) dataset is published by Eurostat. The dataset provides various indicators relating to the nature and levels of economic activity within the EU. 14 The database covers activity in all Member States. The database is compiled by Eurostat based on information sent by the national statistics institutes of each Member State. 15 NSIs collect data through statistical surveys, administrative sources or from the business register. The sampling unit for this exercise is an enterprise, which is defined by Council Regulation (EEC) 696/93 to be

“the smallest combination of legal units that is an organisational unit producing goods or services, which benefits from a certain degree of autonomy in decision-making, especially for the allocation of its current resources.”4

16 The data are broken down at the product group level based on the NACE Rev.1 (Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community) classification system. 17 The database was implemented in 1995 and the period between 1995 and 1998 was a transitional phase. As a result, some of the data are incomplete for this period. However, the data are more complete for the years 1999 to 2003. Data for 2004 were not available at the time of preparing this report. 18 Production value measures the actual value of goods and services, in Euro, sold by the enterprise during the reference year. This variable is used in this study as the measure of production.19 Employment is defined as the number of employees; the number of persons who have a contract of employment with the enterprise and who receive wages or salaries

4 Structural Business Statistics, Eurostat Metadata in SDDS format:

Summary Methodology


6

from them. This variable does not include contract workers who are not directly employed by the enterprise. 20 Apparent consumption is calculated by adding up the production and the imports and subtracting exports for each product group. The production value comes from the SBS database, while the imports and exports data come from COMEXT. 21 Output as a share of GDP expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of total production of a sector to the GDP of the Member State. 22 Output as a share of OECD consumption expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of production of a sector to the aggregate apparent consumption of the products of that sector in all OECD countries. This indicator is to be interpreted as a proxy for the share of output in relation to global production, which is to say, as a proxy for the share of the global market. 23 Self-sufficiency ratio is the ratio of production of a particular sector in a Member State to the apparent consumption of the same sector in the same Member State. 24 Import penetration ratio is the ratio of the imports in a sector to the apparent consumption of the same sector for each Member State. 25 Share of total employment expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of the number of employees in the sector to the total employment in all sectors in the Member State. 26 EU-level aggregates are computed for production,employment and apparent consumption by summing the values for each Member State. The EU-level aggregate for output as a share of GDP is calculated as a ratio of the aggregate EU production to the aggregate EU GDP. The EU level aggregate for output as a share of OECD consumption is calculated as a ratio of aggregate EU production and total OECD consumption. 27 In computing EU aggregates, where data on production or employment for a Member State are not available for the year 2003, the corresponding value for the year 2002 is used instead. Where the data are not available in an intermediate year between 1995 and 2003, linear interpolation was used to fill the gap.

Symmetric input-output tables 28 The symmetric input-output tables are published by Eurostat after being collected from national statistics institutes’ accounting departments. These symmetric input-output tables are constructed by converting the supply and use tables, at constant prices. Of these tables, it is the symmetric input-output tables for imports and the symmetric input-output table for domestic output which are of interest to this study. 29 Symmetric input-output tables are not released annually, but at five-year intervals. Even then, Eurostat does not provide these tables for many Member States. We have only used data from these tables where they are available for at least two successive periods.

30 Symmetric input-output tables classify activities into 60 groups, based on the NACE Rev.1 classification system. 31 Import input-output tables provide the total value of each imported intermediate good broken down by the domestic activity that consumes that intermediate good. Domestic input-output tables provide the aggregate value of all imported intermediate goods broken down by the domestic activity that consumes that intermediate good. The tables also provide the value added by each domestic activity. 32 The narrow measure of offshore outsourcing is constructed as the ratio of the value of imported intermediate goods belonging to a particular activity classification to the value added by the domestic end-user enterprises belonging to the same activity classification. 33 The wide measure of offshore outsourcing for a particular activity classification is constructed as the ratio of the value of all imported intermediate goods to the value added by the domestic end-user enterprises within that activity classification. 34 As the activity classifications are occasionally at a higher level of aggregation than the sectors being studied, the same data are used for some sectors that fall within that activity classification. For example, input-output tables are available for the NACE division 26, which covers other non-metallic mineral products including glass and cement. Therefore the same data are presented in the analysis for both sectors. In some cases, this is not possible. For example, input-output tables are available for the NACE division 24 which covers chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The trends in these two sectors are sufficiently different to make the use of combined data difficult. This is an inherent weakness of this dataset for the purposes of this study. 35 EU-level aggregates cannot be constructed for these measures as the imported intermediate goods are not further broken down into intra-EU and extra-EU imports.

European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) 36 The European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) is published on an on-going basis by the Dublin-based European Monitoring Centre on Change (EMCC). 37 The ERM records all industrial restructuring cases that: (a) affect at least one EU country; (b) involve an announced or actual reduction of at least

100 jobs; or (c) involve sites employing at least 250 people and

affecting at least 10 per cent of the workforce; or (d) create at least 100 jobs.

38 The EMCC records this information by conducting a press review of selected daily newspapers in all the 25 Member States. 39 The data are classified according to type of restructuring. There are eight types of restructuring in the database, one of which is “offshoring/delocalisation”.


7

40 For each of the restructuring cases, the database provides the: (a) name of the company; (b) sector; (c) type of restructuring; (d) date of announcement; (e) number of jobs lost or created; (f) destination of relocation (if reported); and (g) summary of the news item.

41 The compilation of cases begins from January 2002 and is updated on a continuous basis. 42 The jobs lost variable is compiled by adding up the jobs lost in each case corresponding to a particular sector and member state. 43 Again, as is the case with the input-output tables, the sectors, as defined by the ERM, are frequently at a higher level of aggregation than our study requires. In such cases, the relevant summaries are used to reclassify the individual cases into our sectors.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic fixed capital formation 44 FDI data are published by Eurostat as part of their Economy and Finance – Balance of Payments domain. 45 FDI is defined by Eurostat as

“the category of international investment made by an entity resident in one economy (direct investor) to acquire a lasting interest in an enterprise operating in another economy (direct investment enterprise). The lasting interest is deemed to exist if the direct investor acquires at least 10 per cent of the equity capital of the direct investment enterprise.”

46 The data are broken down by reporting country, activity classification of the direct investor, the destination region and year of investment. The data cover all 25 EU Member States. 47 The FDI database is used to construct indicators of the level of FDI made by the reporting country within and outside the EU-15, within and outside the EU-25 and in the EU-10. The FDI is classified according to the activity classification of the investing entity, regardless of the nature of the final destination. 48 Domestic fixed capital formation is published by Eurostat as part of their Annual National Accounts data category. 49 Domestic fixed capital formation is defined by the database as

“the resident's product acquisitions, less disposals, of fixed assets during a given period plus certain additions to the value of non-produced assets realised by the productive activity of producer or institutional units.”

50 The data are broken down by the reporting country, activity classification and the year of capital formation. The data covers all 25 EU Member States. 51 Gross fixed capital formation within an activity by a Member State is used to characterise the level of investment occurring in the domestic economy.

European industry and trade associations 52 We have used data gathered from various trade associations and industry bodies to support the analysis. In most cases, the data are obtained from published sources. In the case of the Shipbuilding industry however, the data were provided by the association itself. 53 Data relating to the shipbuilding industry have been provided by the Community of European Shipyards Associations (CESA). This covers the employment for 1995-2004 and production for 1997-2004 in all CESA member countries. Only 14 of the CESA member countries are Member States of the EU and therefore this analysis only covers these countries. 54 Other supporting data have been obtained from various publications of the following organisations: (a) European chemical industry council (CEFIC) (b) The confederation of the food and drink industries of

the EU (CIAA) (c) The European apparel and textiles organisation

(EURATEX) (d) Association of European railway industries (UNIFE) (e) The European leather association (COTANCE) (f) The European confederation of woodworking

industries (CEI-Bois) (g) Standing committee of European glass industries

(CPIV) (h) Confederation of European paper industries (CEPI) (i) Aerospace and defence industries association of

Europe (ASD) (j) European association of aerospace industries

(AECMA) (k) The European cement association (CEMBUREAU)

Sector analysis

8

3. Sector analysis 1 This section sets out the analysis that has been done on the 19 sectors covered by the study.

The structure of the sector analyses 2 Generally, each of the sector analyses follows a common template: (a) A synoptic description of the sector and of the analysis

of relocation in that sector; (b) A table setting out the relocation indicators calculated

on the basis of the collected data. (c) A set of graphs for each Member States tracing the

evolution of some of the indicators over time. In the sections on the food, the electromechanical, the Knowledge Intensive Business Services, and the financial services, a set of additional graphs capturing the movement in FDI and in domestic capital formation. Only for these four sectors is there a direct correspondence with the classification used by the relevant database.

3 In addition to this common template, the discussion of some of the sectors also include figures based on data gathered from sources other than the datasets described in Section 2; these additional data are typically sourced from the relevant trade association.

Aerospace manufacturing

9


Sector definition 4 Aerospace manufacturing is covered by the NACE subdivision 35.30. It includes the manufacturing of aircraft and spacecraft as well as the maintenance and repair of aircraft engines and the reconditioning of aircraft. 5 This subdivision does not cover the manufacturing of missiles, a product area that is covered by the AeroSpace and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD). Activity related to the production of missiles is however relatively small (2.9 per cent of European industry turnover in 2004 according to ASD) and the discussion in the rest of this section will not cover it.5

6 According to ASD figures for 2004 (and excluding missiles), 51 per cent of turnover in the sector was related to aircraft final products, 20 per cent to aircraft maintenance, 9 per cent to manufacturing of aircraft engines and 7 per cent to manufacturing of aircraft equipment. The complementary 6 per cent of turnover related to space. Within the turnover associated with the manufacturing of aircraft final products (which exclude maintenance, aircraft equipment and engines), 46 per cent related to large civil aircrafts and 35 per cent to military aircraft. 7 It is also interesting to note that, based on ASD data, over the last two decades there has been a reversal in the relative weight of civil and military clients for the industry. In the early 1980s, military related products accounted for around two thirds of the industry turnover and civil products for two thirds. By the end of the 1990s, these shares were reversed: military clients accounting for one third and civil ones for two thirds of the industry’s turnover.

Data coverage 8 There is some discrepancy between the data reported by Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) and that published by ASD in relation to the level of economic activity and on employment in the sector which, given the methodological differences, are not surprising. For 2003, SBS data reveal that the sector’s turnover was 82 billion and that the number of people employed was around 347 thousand. According to ASD the relevant figures were, respectively 73.0 billion and 416 thousand people employed (see Figure 1). 9 SBS provides no breakdown of the various activities within aerospace manufacturing. To identify the various activities within the sector we have made use of ASD data.

5 All ASD data referred to in this section were extracted from

AeroSpace and Defence Industries Association of Europe, Facts and Figures 2004. Available from http://www.asd-europe.org/content/default.asp?PageID=16

10 For Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta there are no SBS data on production or employment. This cannot be remedied by turning to ASD as this association does not release information at the Member State level. 11 Input-output tables exist for the “air transport” sector though no figures are available for a number of countries including France and the UK, the two most significant producers. 12 No FDI data are available for the sector. ASD does provide some, limited, information on investment at the EU wide level; this is set out in Figure 2 and commented on below. 13 Trade data are provided by COMEXT, a source that is used by ASD itself.

Context 14 According to SBS, 2003 production in the EU-25 was

82 billion, accounting for around 0.86 per cent of EU-25 GDP. According to that same source, the sector employed 347 thousand workers in 2003. 15 France, the UK and Germany are, in this order, the three largest Member States in this sector accounting for,

Figure 1: European employment and production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Employees (thousand) Turnover (Euro billion)

Figure 2: R&D expenditure share of turnover

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Note: Includes missiles Source: AeroSpace and Defence Industries Association of Europe, Facts and Figures 2004


10

respectively 43, 25 and 19 per cent of EU-25 production. Jointly, they made up 87 per cent of EU-25 production, a level of concentration significantly higher than most other sectors. (SBS data). If the next two largest producers are also included, Italy and Spain, the combined share rises to 97 per cent of total EU production. 16 When ranked in terms of employment, for 2003, the UK appears at the top, accounting for 29 per cent of employment in the sector across Europe, whilst the share for France and Germany are 24 and 22 per cent respectively.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 17 At the EU-25 level as a whole, the level of employment has fallen by around a fifth from the levels observed throughout the 1980’s. Most of this drop occurred in the first half of the 1990’s; since then employment levels have remained relatively stable as both ASD and Eurostat data reveal. Industry turnover at the European level has steadily grown over the long-term, although there was a dip in 2001 and 2002. 18 In this respect, we note the words of the European Association of Aerospace Industries (AECMA) in its “Facts and Figures 2002” report on the negative impact on the industry from the 11 September 2001 attacks in the USA, the war in Iraq and the SARS outbreak in early 2003.6 The suggestion is that the observed drop in activity within Europe in those years is closely associated with these events. No remark is made on the role of relocation. 19 Europe has, broadly, stood its ground in terms of its share of global activity. According to Eurostat, EU-25’s share of OECD consumption has hovered around the 46 per cent mark in the period from 1999 to 2003. This is a slightly higher figure than the 39 per cent share reported by ASD for 2004. 20 The positive picture is also reflected in the balance of trade figures. On the basis of COMEXT data, net exports have steadily grown in the period from 1999 to 2004; in 1999 the sector had a trade deficit of 0.6 billion, and in 2004 a trade surplus of 2.5 billion. The main contributor to this change was the significant increase in the trade surplus with developing countries, which rose from 12.0 to 18.1 billion. 21 We have not found relevant data on investment trends in the industry. However, ASD does publish data on research and development (R&D) in the sector, including missiles. That data reveal that R&D has roughly remained around the 14.5 per cent of turnover mark from 1996 to 2004; in 2004, the expenditure was 11 billion (see Figure 2).

6 AECMA (2002) “Facts and Figures 2002”. Available from

http://www.aecma.org/Publications/AECMA_FactsnFigures_2002.pdf

Share of EU-25 production. 2003

France 43%

United Kingdom25%

Germany 19%

Italy 5%

Other 8%

Total 2003 production: Euro 82.1 billion

EU-25 employment and production

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pro

duct

ion

Employment (thousands) Production (Euro billion)

EU-25 sector contribution

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

43.5

44

44.5

45

45.5

46

46.5

47

47.5

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption

Share of GDP (%) Share of OECD consumption (%)

EU-25 trade balance: net exports (Euro billion)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

All Developing countries


11

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 22 The production data used in the analysis of relocation at the national level are based on Eurostat. 23 In the period from 1995 to 2003, the French industry grew steadily as did employment levels, although there was a dip in the period 2001-2003. The sector has grown in terms of its share of GDP — from 1.7 per cent in 1996 to 2.2 per cent in 2003, as has its share of OECD consumption (from 18.0 to 19.5 per cent over that same period). Data on the French trade balance reveal that the trade surplus has varied considerably over the last 10 years, varying within the 5.3- 10.3 billion range, with no discernible trend. Trade with developing countries has shown a surplus throughout and, here too, there is no noticeable trend. Taken together, the various indicators do not suggest relocation is a relevant issue. 24 Production and employment in the UK grew in the period 1996-2000 but contracted noticeably in the subsequent three years to 2003: in 2000, the sector employed 120 thousand workers and by 2003 this number was down to 101 thousand, slightly below 1996 levels. As a share of total employment, the contribution of the sector fell from 0.44 per cent in 1995 to 0.36 per cent in 2004. Production too has fallen significantly since 2001 and this has been accompanied by a fall in the sector’s share of GDP and in its share of OECD consumption. The drop in production in the period 2000-2003 was not met by a corresponding increase in imports although the UK trade balance deteriorated in the period from 1995 to 2004, though it has recovered significantly in the most recent years. The negative trade balance was driven by the net imports from OECD member countries other than EU-15 members, which is to say, from the USA. The impact of the growth of imports is also registered in the slight, but nonetheless perceptible, positive trend of the import penetration ratio. Were the USA excluded, the UK’s trade balance would have been positive throughout, and it is noticeable that the positive trade balance with developing countries in particular now stands at a significantly higher level than in 1995; 4.7 billion compared to 0.4 billion. The data do not provide a consistent picture of relocation. 25 Eurostat data on German employment and production are only available from 1999 to 2003. In terms of production, the German sector has shown limited growth: production grew, nominally, from 1999 to 2001 but fell subsequently and in 2003 it was at a similar level to what it had been 2000. This trend is reflected in the sector’s share of GDP — which rose marginally to 2001 and then fell. Interestingly, its share in the global market, as indicated by the share of OECD consumption has risen, particularly in the later years covered by the data. This is likely to reflect the more pronounced contraction of the sectors in other countries, most noticeably in the UK. Employment levels have grown but also at a slow rate; from 69 thousand in 1999 to 75 thousand in 2003. The value of imports to and exports from Germany increased

significantly in the period 1995-2004, and in net terms, the trade balance in 2004 is at a similar level to that of 1995. The trade balance with developing countries has increased significantly: from 0.5 billion in 2000 to 4.9 billion in 2004. On the other hand, the trade deficit with OECD countries, other than EU members, has also worsened over the period. The latter might explain the noticeable increase in the input-output measure, whether measured narrowly (0.80 in 1995, 1.29 in 2000) or wide (1.01 in 1995, 1.52 in 2000). 26 Data on Italy reveal a slow and consistent downward trend in employment levels (37 thousand employees in 1995, 26 thousand in 2003) and a fluctuating level of production. The growth in production from 1999 to 2002 was largely undone by a fall in 2003. These fluctuations are reflected in the sector’s contribution to domestic GDP and in its share of OECD consumption. Italian trade balance has fluctuated considerably since 1995 with no obvious pattern. The balance with developing countries has remained consistently positive and, since 2003, it has returned to levels similar to those observed prior to 2000. Input-output figures suggest a marginal fall in the share of domestic value added accounted for by imports of intermediaries. 27 The trend in the Spanish production data shows a healthy level of growth since 1995 ( 0.8 billion in 1995,

2.5 billion in 2003), with only a blip in 2001. This growth is reflected in the increased share of domestic GDP accounted for by the sector and Spain’s increased share of OECD consumption. Employment levels have also grown although at a considerably slower rate and as a share of total employment in Spain, the sector’s contribution in 2003 was identical to that in 1995, 0.8 per cent. The decrease in the import penetration ratio reveals that the growth in domestic production outstripping growth in imports. Trade balance figures with the various trading groups fluctuated in the period 1995-2004 with no clear pattern, as far as is relevant to assess relocation, emerging.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 28 The remaining Member States account for 3 per cent of EU-25 production. Of these, Belgium and the Netherlands are the more significant ones in terms of value of production and, Poland and the Czech Republic in terms of employment. 29 Belgium’s output value rose from 0.5 billion in 1995 to

1.0 in 2003, a growth that is reflected in the sector’s increased share of GDP (0.36 per cent in 2003). Employment in the sector also rose over this period, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total employment. Belgium trade balance reversed from a deficit up to 2000 to a small surplus in the years since ( 0.1 billion in 2004). It is interesting to note that Belgium’s significant, in relation to domestic production, trade surplus with developing countries up to 2000 has fallen considerably in the subsequent years.


12

30 Data on the Netherlands show that the sector’s production value has grown, from 0.60 billion in 1997 to

0.75 billion in 2003, at a pace slower than domestic GDP; this is reflected in the marginal fall in the proportion of the GDP accounted for by the sector; from 0.18 per cent to 0.16 per cent. Trade balance data show the Netherlands held a deficit in respect of all trading partners throughout, and that this fluctuated slightly over this period. Trade with developing countries shows a small but discernible trend of an improved balance.

Triangulating the evidence 31 Taken together, the data suggest that there has not been a significant process of relocation in the European aerospace industry. Over the long-term, production has steadily increased. There is no indication that the dip since 2001 is related to shifting of activity outside of Europe. Contrary to the trend in production, employment levels have fallen. The significant improvement in EU-25’s trade balance with developing countries suggests that the fall in employment is not tied to the shifting of employment to these countries. Improved productivity would appear to be a better explanation. In terms of its position as a global player, the EU-25 industry has held its ground and ASD notes that it has in fact increased its share marginally from 2001 to 2002. 32 The European picture is, at a broad level, reflected in the national trends of the key Member States, though there appears to be no fall in employment in Germany and the dip after 2001 were particularly strong in the UK. Trade balances with developing countries have generally improved or held their ground.

This page intentionally left blank


Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 2.33 4.37 0.03 0.12 0.01 0.01

Belgium 0.98 0.48 0.36 0.64 0.55 0.62 0.42 0.92 1.24 0.17 0.16

Denmark 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.04 5.66 2.08 0.97 0.54 0.03 0.02

Finland 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 1.03 1.44 0.08 0.17 0.03 0.03

France 35.08 2.50 2.21 18.89 19.53 0.89 1.00 1.24 1.29 0.35 0.33

Germany 15.71 0.72 0.73 7.99 8.75 0.98 0.96 1.11 1.22 0.19 0.21

Greece

Ireland 0.38 0.27 0.21 0.70 0.39 0.21

Italy 4.35 0.38 0.33 2.35 2.42 0.64 0.57 0.96 0.96 0.15 0.12

Luxembourg

Netherlands 0.75 0.17 0.16 0.35 0.42 0.90 1.03 0.64 0.44 0.06 0.09

Portugal 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.95 1.60 0.24 0.47 0.04 0.04

Spain 2.53 0.27 0.32 0.86 1.41 0.88 0.55 0.58 1.08 0.08 0.08

Sweden 1.55 0.66 0.60 0.87 0.76 0.40 0.37 0.84 1.08 0.28 0.24

United Kingdom 20.21 1.93 1.26 14.68 11.26 0.30 0.49 0.97 0.94 0.44 0.36

EU15 81.44 1.07 0.89 46.79 45.35 0.22 0.20

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 0.25 0.31 0.31 0.09 0.14 2.23 0.76 0.78 0.56 0.17 0.15

Estonia

Hungary 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.14 0.71 1.01 0.84 0.03 0.03

Latvia 0.00 0.00 1.40 0.19 0.00 0.00

Lithuania 0.01 0.05 0.00 3.71 0.28 0.02

Malta

Poland 0.30 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.11

Slovakia 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.02

Slovenia 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 1.09 1.11 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.01

EU10 0.62 0.16 0.15 0.27 0.34 0.10 0.09

EU25 82.05 1.03 0.86 47.06 45.70 0.20 0.19

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden and Poland

2. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden and Poland

(%) (%) (%)

Wide MeasureShare of total employment

Share of GDPShare of OECD consumption

Import PenetrationRatio

Self Sufficiency Ratio

Production measures Input-Output measures Employment

Narrow Measure

14


1999 2004 1999 2004 1999 2004 1999 2004 To EU-10 To EU-15To develop-

ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -0.46 -0.15 -0.28 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.26 0.15

Belgium -0.11 0.14 -0.04 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.19

Denmark 0.00 -0.35 0.37 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.45

Finland -0.72 -0.24 -0.21 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.12

France 6.55 8.66 -0.57 -0.72 0.11 0.22 2.18 4.53

Germany 1.49 1.17 2.04 2.33 0.02 0.19 1.29 4.83

Greece -0.63 -1.09 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.89

Ireland -1.19 -1.35 -0.25 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.93 0.93

Italy -0.18 0.44 -0.16 0.36 0.00 0.07 0.11 0.35

Luxembourg -0.75 -0.30 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.27

Netherlands -0.36 -0.73 0.02 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.11

Portugal -0.34 -0.18 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.12

Spain -1.11 0.10 -0.36 -0.32 0.00 0.10 1.07 0.54

Sweden -0.31 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.05 -0.01 0.31 0.00

United Kingdom -0.74 -0.54 1.45 1.55 0.01 0.01 3.23 4.72 125 125

EU15 -0.61 2.46 0.18 0.59 12.00 18.20 125 125


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Czech Republic -0.05 -0.07 0.05 -0.07 0.00 -0.03 0.08 0.24

Estonia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hungary 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Latvia 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Lithuania 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05

Malta 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -0.34 -0.23 0.00 -0.07

Slovakia -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.02

Slovenia -0.03 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00

EU10 -0.09 -0.55 0.04 -0.36 0.11 0.26

EU25 -0.93 1.68 12.11 18.46 125 125

Trade balance with EU-10

Trade balance with non-OECD

Jobs lost due to delocalisation, 2002-2005

(Bns. Euros) (Bns. Euros) (Bns. Euros) (Bns. Euros)

Trade Balance with all countries


European Restructuring MonitorBalance of Trade

15


-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio

Self-sufficiency ratio Import penetration ratio

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption


Trade balance (Euro billion)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

All EU-10EU-15 Non-OECD

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

16


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.09

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

17


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

18


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

19


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


6566

6768

6970

7172

7374

7576

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

20


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Product

ion


0.06

0.062

0.064

0.066

0.068

0.07

0.072

0.074

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

21


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.00002

0.00004

0.00006

0.00008

0.0001

0.00012

Product

ion


0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.00001

0.00002

0.00003

0.00004

0.00005

0.00006

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

22


-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.2950.3

0.3050.31

0.3150.32

0.3250.33

0.3350.34

0.3450.35

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

Product

ion


0.042

0.043

0.044

0.045

0.046

0.047

0.048

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

0.0045

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

23


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product

ion


0.1350.14

0.1450.15

0.1550.16

0.1650.17

0.1750.18

0.1850.19

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

24


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

25


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

Product

ion


-0.0050

0.0050.01

0.0150.02

0.0250.03

0.0350.04

0.045

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

-0.001

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

Product

ion


0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

26


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

27


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

28

Automotive industry

29

Automotive industry

Sector definition 33 The Automotive sector is defined by the activities covered under the NACE division 34. This division covers the manufacturing of motor vehicles, motor vehicle coaches, trailers and parts and accessories for motor vehicles and engines. Manufacturing of motorcycles and bicycles is excluded.

Data coverage 34 The data from to Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) are generally good for the automotive sector. The exceptions to this are Greece and Luxembourg, for whom data on production and employment are not available. Data on Germany are only available for the years 1999-2003. The European Association of the Automotive Suppliers, CLEPA, report a considerably higher number of employees in the sector — a threefold difference — but the basis for that estimate has not been made clear to us. 35 Data on trade are available from Eurostat’s COMEXT and provide a good coverage across Member States. 36 Data on FDI are only available for the aggregated sector “Motor vehicles and other transport equipment” and not for automotive sector specifically and therefore cannot be used here.

Context 37 The automotive sector is one of the largest sectors by employment and output within the European Union. According to SBS data, the total output in the EU-25 for 2003 was 661 billion. This constituted almost 7 per cent of GDP in the EU-25. According to the publication Sector Futures: The automotive sector at a crossroads7

published by the European Monitoring Centre on Change Dublin, the motor vehicle industry accounts for over 10 per cent of total EU-25 manufacturing value. 38 SBS data for 2003 put total employment in the automotive sector in the EU-25 at 2.1 million. The study by the EMCC referred to above, estimates that if related industries are included, the sector would account for over 12 million employees in the EU-25. 39 The EU-25 produces a third of the global output of passenger cars. Germany and France are the world’s third and fourth largest producers of automobiles respectively, after the USA and Japan. 40 Manufacturing activity in this sector is highly concentrated with the top two producers, Germany and France accounting for more than 67 per cent of total EU

7 European Monitoring Centre on Change, Dublin (2004) “Sector

Futures: The automotive sector at a crossroads” Available from http://www.emcc.eurofound.eu.int/publications/2004/sf_auto_1.pdf

output. The United Kingdom and Spain together account for a further 16 per cent. 41 The sector accounts for a relatively high share of national GDP in Slovakia (18 per cent), France and the Czech Republic (12 per cent each) and Germany and Hungary (10 per cent each).

Relocation indicators: EU-25 42 The output of the EU-25 automotive sector contributed 6.8 per cent to GDP in 2003 and was equivalent to 48 per cent of consumption in the OECD countries. The EU-25 had a positive trade balance of 55 billion with the rest of the world in 2004. USA is the main export market for EU manufacturers. 43 The automotive sector in the EU-25 has grown in terms of production between 1999 and 2003. Employment, on the other hand, has declined since 2000. The EU has increased its share of OECD consumption, though the sector’s share of GDP has remained fairly constant. 44 The trade surplus with all countries outside the EU-25 increased from 25 billion in 1999 to 55 billion in 2004. Over this period the trade balances with developing countries increased from 12 billion to 29 billion. This, together with the data on production as a share of OECD consumption, indicates that the EU automotive industry has steadily improved its standing on the world market.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 45 The German automotive sector, the largest in Europe, grew steadily between 1999 and 2003 both in terms of employment and output, with the exception of a small drop in employment between 2002 and 2003. Its trade balance with all countries increased steadily from 30billion in 1995 to 76 billion in 2004. Its trade surplus with developing countries doubled from 7 billion in 1995 to 14 billion in 2004. The situation is different with respect to the New Member States as the trade balance with this set of Member States changed from a surplus of

1.1 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 1.2 billion in 2004. The German self-sufficiency ratio increased between 1999 and 2003 as a result of increased domestic production. On the other hand, import penetration also increased marginally during that same period. The input-output tables for the years 1995 and 2000 show significant increases in the narrow and wide measures. A comparison between the wide and narrow measures shows that imports of non-automotive intermediate goods have increased relative to automotive intermediates. 46 France, the second largest producer in Europe, has seen a significant increase in output from 68 billion in 1996 to

190 billion in 2003. Employment, however, dropped between 1996 and 1998 though it subsequently recovered to 1996 levels. The overall trade balance increased steadily from 2.6 billion in 1995 to 9.6 billion in 2004. The surplus with developing countries has also increased from 2.6 billion to 5.2 billion during the same period. The balance with other EU-15 countries remained roughly

Automotive industry

30

constant. The self-sufficiency ratio was broadly constant over the period covered by the data though the import penetration ratio fell. 47 The UK’s production in the automotive industry rose in the late nineties and from then until 2003 it remained fairly constant. In 2003, the UK’s value of production was 53.5 billion. Employment, on the other hand decreased steadily from almost 250 thousand in 1999 to 214 thousand in 2003. The automotive sector made up 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2003, down from 4.2 per cent in 1996. The overall trade deficit increased from 6 billion in 1995 to 20 billion in 2004. The deficit with other EU-15 countries has also increased from 8 billion to 21billion during the same period. The balances with EU-10 and developing countries have remained roughly invariant. 48 Spain has seen a steady rise in output from 27 billion to 47 billion between 1995 and 2003. Employment has increased from 138 thousand to 163 thousand during the same period. The self-sufficiency and import penetration ratios remained broadly constant. On the other hand, the trade balance with other EU-15 countries switched from a surplus of 4.7 billion to a deficit of 1.7 billion between 1995 and 2004. The trade balances with EU-10 and developing countries were broadly unchanged throughout the period 1995-2004. 49 Data from Italy suggest that the situation in this Member State is similar to that in the UK. Rising production is coupled with falling employment and increasing deficits with other EU-15 countries. In the period from 1995 to 2003, production increased from 28 billion to 41 billion and employment decreased from 186 thousand to 161 thousand between 1995 and 2003. The trade deficit with other EU-15 countries has increased from 2 billion in 1995 to almost 11 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 50 Amongst other countries, Sweden has seen its output rise from 14 billion to 20 billion between 1995 and 2002, while employment increased from 68 thousand to 73 thousand. Sweden’s trade balance has improved slightly, mainly due to improved trade with OECD members other than those in the EU-25. 51 Many of the New Member States have seen increases in output and employment. The automotive sectors in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia have all expanded rapidly reflecting increased investment by manufacturers. A closer look at the trade balances of these countries reveal that the Czech Republic has an increasing surplus with all other groups of countries, whereas Hungary has a widening deficit with European and other OECD countries and a surplus with developing countries. Poland, on the other hand, has seen employment fall from 93 thousand in 1996 to 75 thousand in 2002, though output has increased during the same period.


Germany 37%

France 30%

United Kingdom8%

Spain 8%

Other 17%

Total 2003 production: Euro 661 billion


2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Pro

duct

ion



5.8

5.9

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Automotive industry

31

Triangulating the evidence 52 There is very little evidence in the data that suggests

relocation away from the EU. Output has been increasing

and trade surpluses with non-EU countries have been

growing. This does not necessarily mean that some

manufacturing has not shifted overseas, but that such

shifts have not resulted in a drop in output or

employment. Trade balances with developing countries

do not indicate a significant rise in imports relative to

exports and this is a further indicator that manufacturing

has not been shifting to these countries in a significant

manner.

53 There appears to be a rising trend in intra-EU trade with

some countries doing better in terms of exports than the

others. Germany and the Czech Republic are the relative

beneficiaries of this trade, with all other countries

showing increasing deficits with them.

54 France, the UK and Italy show signs of productivity

gains in the form of increased output with a smaller

workforce. This is unlikely to have been accompanied by

relocation as indicated by trade balances with the EU-10

and developing countries.

Automotive industry

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 9.84 3.43 4.33 0.52 0.73 0.94 0.91 0.78 0.87 1.14 1.63 1.91 2.37 0.75 0.78

Belgium 16.03 6.36 5.84 1.15 1.18 1.81 2.44 1.42 1.48 2.28 2.39 2.84 3.47 1.30 1.20

Denmark 0.99 0.60 0.53 0.07 0.07 1.02 1.26 0.28 0.37 0.35 0.21 0.80 0.95 0.30 0.22

Finland 0.95 0.71 0.66 0.07 0.07 1.45 1.29 0.49 0.36 0.59 0.41 0.87 0.89 0.31 0.31

France 190.90 11.11 12.04 11.55 14.09 0.20 0.20 1.04 1.05 1.21 1.17

Germany 236.15 9.63 10.92 14.75 17.42 0.31 0.35 1.33 1.45 0.26 0.37 0.51 0.84 2.29 2.39

Greece

Ireland 0.58 0.49 0.42 0.03 0.04 1.00 0.93 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.19

Italy 41.25 3.03 3.17 2.60 3.04 0.64 0.63 0.83 0.80 0.17 0.26 0.49 0.66 0.85 0.73

Luxembourg

Netherlands 7.01 1.99 1.47 0.57 0.52 1.27 1.51 0.63 0.67 0.88 1.22 1.78 2.10 0.36 0.31

Portugal 4.04 3.68 2.95 0.32 0.30 0.88 0.99 0.63 0.81 0.49 0.45

Spain 47.89 6.77 6.14 2.99 3.53 0.60 0.66 1.02 1.05 1.07 0.94

Sweden 20.19 8.10 7.80 1.47 1.35 0.42 0.44 1.20 1.24 0.64 0.58 1.14 1.10 1.77 1.73

United Kingdom 53.53 3.82 3.35 3.99 3.95 0.58 0.62 0.80 0.73 0.81 0.77

EU15 629.34 6.58 6.78 40.08 46.44 1.23 1.19

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.02 0.19 0.00 0.95 0.07 0.12

Czech Republic 10.07 9.31 12.55 0.39 0.74 0.60 0.54 1.49 1.34 1.45 1.87

Estonia 0.10 0.82 1.23 0.00 0.01 1.07 1.08 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.31

Hungary 7.48 10.03 10.17 0.34 0.55 0.49 0.45 0.96 0.94 1.79 2.08 3.31 3.69 0.84 1.00

Latvia 0.02 0.08 0.19 0.00 0.00 1.03 1.01 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.08

Lithuania 0.02 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 1.31 1.73 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.05

Malta 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.02 0.02 0.04

Poland 7.34 4.34 3.51 0.52 0.49 0.66 0.55

Slovakia 5.40 8.93 18.64 0.13 0.40 0.66 1.06

Slovenia 1.26 5.99 5.09 0.09 0.09 0.89 1.03 0.81 0.93 4.34 3.62 5.66 6.23 0.75 0.79

EU10 31.71 5.87 7.06 1.48 2.34 0.74 0.82

EU25 661.05 6.56 6.79 41.56 48.78 1.15 1.14

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Malta and Poland

2. 1998 and 2000 for Hungary and 1996 and 2000 for Slovenia


(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

32

Automotive industry


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -1.92 -0.05 -1.64 -2.16 -0.08 -0.06 0.24 0.67 170 170

Belgium 4.46 5.27 3.95 5.03 0.18 0.49 0.47 1.08 404 404

Denmark -2.47 -2.70 -2.17 -2.43 -0.02 -0.10 0.05 0.03

Finland -0.89 -1.91 -1.04 -2.09 0.05 0.17 0.12 0.37 440 440

France 5.65 9.58 2.17 2.47 0.66 1.19 2.41 5.17 607 449 1056

Germany 48.20 76.13 25.13 37.20 0.73 -1.21 5.75 14.31 1165 500 1665

Greece -3.23 -4.43 -2.30 -3.14 -0.07 -0.14 -0.10 -0.14

Ireland -2.50 -2.70 -1.85 -2.49 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 245 70 315

Italy -6.88 -10.74 -6.79 -10.89 -0.40 -1.04 0.91 1.66 245 120 365

Luxembourg -0.82 -0.97 -0.80 -0.96 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01

Netherlands -4.30 -3.66 -3.37 -3.18 0.11 0.11 0.19 0.64

Portugal -2.45 -1.58 -1.60 -1.28 -0.03 -0.01 -0.07 0.06 2900 2550 5450

Spain 0.78 -1.00 0.55 -1.68 0.35 0.48 0.93 1.30

Sweden 3.26 5.34 0.78 1.15 0.02 -0.06 0.67 1.91 529 250 779

United Kingdom -13.07 -20.15 -14.06 -21.80 0.03 -0.26 0.82 0.88 100 2300 130 2530

EU15 26.85 52.66 1.46 -0.49 12.38 27.95 5986 2545 4643 13174


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.23 -0.50 -0.10 -0.33 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03

Czech Republic 1.70 3.12 1.15 1.75 0.43 0.98 0.17 0.39

Estonia -0.16 -0.44 -0.13 -0.41 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02

Hungary -0.21 -0.53 -0.04 -0.39 -0.11 -0.21 0.07 0.20

Latvia -0.20 -0.48 -0.13 -0.32 -0.03 -0.14 -0.02 0.00

Lithuania -0.20 -0.58 -0.16 -0.64 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.22

Malta -0.14 -0.11 -0.09 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland 0.36 0.17 -0.25 0.33 600 600

Slovakia 2.10 1.37 -0.51 0.27

Slovenia -0.28 -0.21 -0.14 -0.29 -0.05 0.02 0.02 0.17

EU10 0.02 2.97 0.37 0.85 0.24 1.56 600 600

EU25 25.05 55.26 12.62 29.51 5986 3145 4643 13774

(Bns. Euros)




(Bns. Euros) (Bns. Euros) (Bns. Euros)




33

Automotive industry

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

34

Automotive industry

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

0.0018

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

35

Automotive industry

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.185

0.19

0.195

0.2

0.205

0.21

0.215

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.04

1.045

1.05

1.055

1.06

1.065

1.07

1.075

1.08

1.085

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

36

Automotive industry

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

37

Automotive industry

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


810

820

830

840

850

860

870

880

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

Product

ion


8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-5

-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

38

Automotive industry

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

39

Automotive industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Product

ion


2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

40

Automotive industry

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

0.0018

0.002

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

41

Automotive industry

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.00005

0.0001

0.00015

0.0002

0.00025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

42

Automotive industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

43

Automotive industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

44

Automotive industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Product

ion


5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

45

Automotive industry

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

46

Cement

47

Cement

Sector definition 55 The cement industry is covered by the NACE subdivisions 26.5 and 26.6. These subdivisions cover the manufacture of cement, lime and plaster and the manufacture of articles of concrete, plaster and cement.

Data coverage 56 The coverage of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on production and employment is fairly good. There are no data at all for Greece, and just one observation for Ireland. Data on Estonia, Germany, Lithuania and Malta are only available for the period 1999-2003. Coverage of trade data in COMEXT is reasonably good. Data on FDI are not available for this sector. 57 CEMBUREAU informed us that, according to their information, Greece is the largest exporter of cement in the EU and that, in its opinion, Eurostat consistently underestimates the activity levels of this sector in Greece. As noted above, SBS report no data at all for Greece. 58 We make use of some data obtained from CEMBUREAU, the association of European cement manufacturers, mainly to provide contextual information about the sector.8

Context 59 According to data obtained from CEMBUREAU the EU-25 is a relatively small player in the global cement industry. In 2004, it accounted for, according to CEMBUREAU data, 11 per cent of world cement production. China is the largest producer in the world, accounting for 44 per cent of world production (see Figure 1) 60 As set out in Figure 2, output growth has been relatively weak in Europe. It has grown fastest in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and in Asian countries. 61 Data from SBS show EU-25 production in value terms of the sector at 78 billion for 2003. Employment in the sector across the EU-25 for 2003 was 468 thousands. 62 According to SBS, the largest producers in the sector within the EU-25 are Italy, Germany, Spain, France and the United Kingdom. Together, these Member States accounted for over 80 per cent of EU-25 production in 2003. In terms of employment, Germany is the largest employer in the EU, followed by Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom. 63 Spain, Italy and Germany are the largest consumers of cement in the EU. According to CEMBUREAU data,

8 CEMBUREAU “Activity Report 2004” Available from

http://www.cembureau.be/Documents/Publications/Activity%20Report%202004.pdf

Figure 1: World cement production by region: Evolution 1998-2004 Index 1998=100

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

CIS Asia Africa

Other Europe Cembureau America

Figure 2: Share of global cement production, 2004

Total 2004 production: 2.11 billion tonnes

European Union

11%

Americas

11%

Other Europe

and CIS

6%

China

44%

India

6%

Other Asia

17%

Rest of the

World

5%

Figure 3: Share of EU cement consumption, 2004

Total 2004 consumption: 224 million tonnes

Spain

21%

Italy

20%

Germany

13%

France

10%

United Kingdom

6%

Poland

5%

Greece

5%

Portugal

4%

Rest

16%

Source: CEMBUREAU Activity Report 2004

Cement

48

these countries accounted for 54 per cent EU cement consumption in 2004 (see Figure 3).

Relocation indicators: EU-25 64 Production in the EU-25 has increased slightly from 70billion in 1999 to 78 billion in 2003. Over that period, employment in the EU-25 declined from 478 thousand to 467 thousand. 65 There has been a small drop in the contribution of the cement sector to overall EU-25 GDP; from 0.89 per cent to 0.85 per cent between the years 1999 and 2003. However, the output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 20 per cent to 22 per cent during the same period. 66 The trade balance of the EU-25 is relatively small compared to the level of EU-25 consumption. Collectively, the EU-25 had a small trade surplus of 0.44 billion with the rest of the world in 1999, and a small deficit of 0.03 billion in 2004. With respect to trade with developing countries, the EU-25 had a trade deficit of

0.04 billion in 1999 which increased to 0.65 billion by 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 67 The Italian cement industry has grown steadily over the past decade. Output increased from 7.6 billion in 1995 to 15.8 billion in 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased from 0.89 per cent to 1.22 per cent between 1995 and 2003 and output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent during the same period. Employment went up from 55 thousand in 1999 to 65 thousand in 2003. Italy enjoys a relatively large trade surplus with other countries though this has been gradually declining and reached a level of 1billion in 2004. Both import penetration and self-sufficiency ratios declined slightly over the period covered by the data. It is worth noting that the import penetration for Italy in this sector was just 12 per cent in 2003. These indicators suggest that consumption of cement increased rapidly and that although domestic industry increased its output, it was still unable to supply all the increase in demand. 68 The situation in Germany is markedly different from that in Italy. German production declined from 21 billion in 1999 to 13.8 billion in 2003, while employment has declined from 111 thousand to 88 thousand during the same period. Output fell both as a share of GDP and as a share of OECD consumption. On the other hand, the trade situation changed from an overall deficit of 0.86 billion in 1995 to an overall surplus of

0.72 billion in 2004. In terms of trade with EU-10 countries, again there was a reversal from a deficit of

0.42 billion to a surplus of 0.1 billion between those two years. Interestingly, even as production declined, self-sufficiency increased from 98 per cent in 1999 to 103

per cent in 2003. Taken together, the data indicate that there was a significant drop in domestic demand, leading


Italy 21%

Germany 18%

Spain 16%

France 14%

Other 31%



455

460

465

470

475

480

485

490

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Pro

duct

ion



0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cement

49

self-sufficiency increased from 98 per cent in 1999 to 103

per cent in 2003. Taken together, the data indicate that

there was a significant drop in domestic demand, leading

to some de-industrialisation. Though output and

employment declined, there is no evidence to show that

relocation is the reason for this.

69 Spain’s production increased from 5.5 billion in 1995

to 12.5 billion in 2003. Employment levels increased

steadily from 46 thousand to 63 thousand over that same

period. The growth in Spanish production outpaced that

of Spanish GDP as well as the growth in the consumption

of cement across the OECD countries, so that the sector’s

value of production as a share of domestic GDP and as a

share of total OECD consumption grew throughout with

the exception of a small dip in 2000. Spain’s overall trade

balance remained relatively stable throughout 1995-2004.

The balance with developing countries moved from a

small surplus in 1995 to a small deficit in 2004. The self-

sufficiency ratio has declined steadily from 1.11 in 1996

to 1.03 in 2003 and the import penetration ratio has

decreased from 0.13 to 0.10 between these same two

years. The data suggest that although output and

employment increased significantly, domestic production

alone is unable meet all the demand. This resulted in an

increase in imports relative to exports and domestic

consumption.

70 In France, output increased marginally in the period

from 1996 ( 7.9 billion) to 2003 ( 10.5 billion). Over

this period, employment remained fairly stable, showing a

very small decline from 45 thousand to 44 thousand. The

self-sufficiency ratio fell from 1.02 to 0.96 during the

same period. The overall trade balance switched from a

surplus of 0.15 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 0.41

billion in 2004. The balance of trade with other EU-15

countries changed from a small surplus of 8 million in

1995 to a deficit of 482 million in 2004. The data show

that the cement industry in France has remained fairly

stagnant with low output growth and declining

employment. Increased imports from other EU-15

countries indicate that some of the domestic demand is

now being met by manufacturers from other EU-15

countries.

71 The situation in the United Kingdom is similar to that in

France. Output increased from 5 billion in 1996 to 8.1

billion in 2003. Employment has declined from 40

thousand in 1997 to 38 thousand in 2003. The self-

sufficiency ratio fell slightly over the same period. The

UK had an overall trade surplus of 0.31 billion in 1995

which turned into a deficit of 0.08 billion by 2004. This

reversal was observed across all groups of trading

partners.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 72 Amongst the New Member States, there is a common

trend of increased output and relatively stable

employment figures. The exceptions to this are Poland,

Slovakia and Lithuania where employment declined after

1999.

73 Many of the new member states have seen their overall

trade balances move into deficits. These deficits are

largely caused by increased imports relative to exports

with respect to EU-15 countries. This is particularly true

in the cases of Estonia, Hungary, Malta and Cyprus. In the

case of Lithuania, imports from developing countries are

the main component of its deficit.

74 Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic on the other

hand enjoy an overall trade surplus. In the case of

Slovakia and Slovenia, this surplus was driven by

growing exports to developing countries.

Triangulating the evidence 75 There is little evidence in the data that suggests any

relocation at an EU-wide level. There is some evidence

of stagnation in the sector, but this is not accompanied by

large scale cuts in employment.

76 Changes in production activity seem to be led by

domestic consumption patterns. Countries where

consumption growth has been strong, particularly Italy

and Spain, have seen growth in output and employment.

Other countries like Germany and France have seen their

output fall or remain flat and their employment drop.

Under these circumstances, any drop in employment is

more likely to be due to internal restructuring and

increased productivity rather than relocation.

77 Foreign trade in cement is relatively small when

compared to output or domestic consumption. The EU-15

still enjoys a fairly stable trade surplus with the rest of the

world. The EU-15 have a small but increasing deficit

with developing countries, indicating increased imports

from these countries. On the other hand, the EU-15 have

an increasing trade surplus with the EU-10.

78 According to information provided by CEMBUREAU,

the new EU emissions trading regime makes it important

to make a distinction between cement, the final product,

and clinker, which is an intermediate product. As the part

of the production process that relates to the manufacture

of clinker releases relatively higher amounts of

greenhouse gases, it is more likely to be affected by the

EU’s commitment to achieving emission targets. This is

likely to create a situation where the manufacture of

clinker is increasingly shifted to countries with relatively

liberal emission regimes.

Cement

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 2.01 1.01 0.88 0.58 0.57 0.29 0.33 1.03 1.06 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.35 0.33 0.31

Belgium 3.37 1.25 1.23 0.86 0.95 0.41 0.43 1.12 1.18 0.16 0.21 0.52 0.68 0.34 0.35

Denmark 1.14 0.66 0.61 0.31 0.32 0.30 0.34 1.03 1.03 0.09 0.07 0.41 0.34 0.30 0.30

Finland 1.04 0.73 0.29 0.34 0.92 0.11 0.09 0.38 0.35 0.26

France 10.54 0.67 0.67 2.63 2.98 0.19 0.18 0.99 0.97 0.19 0.18

Germany 13.87 1.05 0.64 6.07 3.92 0.15 0.21 0.98 1.03 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.25 0.31 0.25

Greece

Ireland 0.80 0.57 0.23 0.31 0.83 0.24

Italy 15.86 0.88 1.22 2.87 4.48 0.18 0.13 1.16 1.07 0.04 0.04 0.20 0.21 0.27 0.30

Luxembourg 0.12 0.49 0.53 0.03 0.03 1.08 0.89 0.69 0.65 0.23 0.22

Netherlands 2.84 0.60 0.80 0.57 0.84 0.17 0.14 0.43 0.47 0.21 0.17

Portugal 1.81 1.59 1.32 0.52 0.51 0.14 0.18 0.99 0.97 0.25 0.24

Spain 12.54 1.49 1.61 2.49 3.54 0.11 0.10 1.06 1.03 0.36 0.37

Sweden 1.60 0.37 0.62 0.25 0.42 0.44 0.27 0.85 0.91 0.05 0.06 0.37 0.38 0.15 0.22

United Kingdom 8.15 0.53 0.51 2.11 2.30 0.17 0.17 1.05 1.01 0.15 0.14

EU15 72.06 0.87 0.83 19.05 20.35 0.25 0.24

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.17 1.48 0.05 0.21 0.92 0.45

Czech Republic 1.32 1.56 1.64 0.25 0.37 0.29 0.26 1.08 1.00 0.36 0.35

Estonia 0.09 1.16 0.03 0.46 0.82 0.38

Hungary 0.78 0.49 1.06 0.06 0.22 0.58 0.30 0.68 0.84 0.10 0.10 0.52 0.43 0.16 0.25

Latvia 0.07 0.45 0.70 0.01 0.02 0.68 0.56 0.45 0.58 0.18 0.19

Lithuania 0.13 0.77 0.04 0.60 0.52 0.30

Malta 0.05 0.88 1.05 0.01 0.01 0.40 0.38 0.65 0.68 0.43 0.44

Poland 2.69 1.43 1.29 0.65 0.70 0.37 0.32

Slovakia 0.35 1.47 1.21 0.08 0.10 0.37 0.27

Slovenia 0.23 0.93 0.91 0.05 0.06 0.57 0.62 0.93 1.06 0.16 0.30 0.63 0.70 0.33 0.33

EU10 5.87 1.24 1.31 1.18 1.66 0.33 0.31

EU25 77.92 0.89 0.85 20.23 22.00 0.26 0.25

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Sweden, Malta and Poland



(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

50

Cement


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.06 0.14 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01

Belgium 0.33 0.49 0.52 0.73 0.02 0.03 -0.17 -0.23

Denmark 0.03 -0.06 -0.01 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.06 0.01 110 110

Finland -0.09 -0.07 -0.08 -0.10 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.02

France -0.09 -0.41 -0.14 -0.48 0.02 0.01 -0.03 0.01

Germany -0.39 0.72 -0.21 0.54 -0.12 0.11 0.00 0.07

Greece 0.25 0.12 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.04

Ireland -0.18 -0.23 -0.13 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.04

Italy 1.36 1.00 0.54 0.38 0.09 0.10 0.22 -0.05

Luxembourg -0.04 -0.09 -0.04 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Netherlands -0.47 -0.59 -0.23 -0.26 0.00 0.01 -0.13 -0.25

Portugal -0.02 -0.01 -0.05 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05

Spain 0.49 0.38 0.44 0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.18

Sweden -0.16 -0.17 -0.15 -0.19 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

United Kingdom 0.35 -0.09 0.28 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.04 -0.05 750 750

EU15 0.57 0.36 0.04 0.30 0.04 -0.60 110 750 860


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.01

Czech Republic 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02

Estonia -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

Hungary -0.11 -0.17 -0.08 -0.12 -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.02

Latvia -0.04 -0.06 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

Lithuania -0.09 -0.12 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.08 -0.09

Malta -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -0.12 -0.08 0.01 -0.03

Slovakia 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.04

Slovenia -0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

EU10 -0.18 -0.43 -0.10 -0.34 -0.07 -0.06

EU25 0.45 -0.03 -0.03 -0.66 110 750 860








51

Cement

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

Product

ion


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

52

Cement

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.035

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.24

0.245

0.25

0.255

0.26

0.265

0.27

0.275

0.28

0.285

0.29

0.295

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

53

Cement

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1.95

2

2.05

2.1

2.15

2.2

2.25

2.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Product

ion


0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

54

Cement

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.165

0.17

0.175

0.18

0.185

0.19

0.195

0.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


41.5

42

42.5

43

43.5

44

44.5

45

45.5

46

46.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

55

Cement

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

56

Cement

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

57

Cement

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

58

Cement

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Product

ion


0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

0.71

0.72

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

59

Cement

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.825

0.83

0.835

0.84

0.845

0.85

0.855

0.86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

2.45

2.5

2.55

2.6

2.65

2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

2.9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

60

Cement

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


11

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

61

Cement

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

62

Cement

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

63

Cement

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.15

0.155

0.16

0.165

0.17

0.175

0.18

0.185

0.19

0.195

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

64

Chemicals

65

Chemicals

Sector definition 79 The chemicals sector is covered by the NACE subdivisions 24.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.5, 24.6 and 24.7. The sector as defined in this study does not include pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceutical sector is defined and examined separately in this study.

Context 80 According to data from the European Chemical Industry Council, CEFIC, Europe accounted for 32 per cent of world chemicals production in 2002 as illustrated in Figure 1.9 CEFIC reports that this share is falling due to rapid growth in Asian countries. 81 Further information from CEFIC suggests that, in 2002, the chemicals sector accounted for over 45 per cent of total EU manufacturing trade surplus. CEFIC also point out that investment by European chemicals companies in Asia and the Middle East has increased in the past decade. In 2000, capital investments outside the EU by chemicals (including pharmaceuticals) companies stood at 27.0 billion. This represented 37 per cent of total capital investment by European manufacturers outside the EU in manufacturing as a whole. 82 According to the data from Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS), the value of production of the sector in the EU-25 in 2003 was 373 billion and the sector provided work for 1.2 million employees. The sector made up 3.84 per cent of total EU-25 GDP. Output of the sector as a share of OECD consumption was 45.8 per cent for the EU-25. 83 The EU-25 enjoyed a trade surplus of 25 billion in 2004 with the rest of the world. 84 Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Netherlands are the largest producers of chemicals in the EU. Together, they account for over 76 per cent of total EU-25 output, with Germany and France alone accounting for over 44 per cent.

Data coverage 85 The coverage of SBS data on production and employment is quite good. There are no data for Greece and data on Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania and Malta are only available for the years 1999-2003. COMEXT data on trade is reasonably good. 86 Input-output and FDI data are not available for chemicals alone as it covers both chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Therefore, we do not rely on these indicators for this sector.

9 CEFIC (2004) “Horizon 2015: Perspectives for the European

Chemical Industry” Available from http://www.cefic.org/files/Publications/Scenarios2.pdf

Relocation indicators: EU-25 87 Eurostat’s SBS data reports that output in the EU-25 remained fairly steady during the period 2000-2003 at around 375 billion. Employment declined by approximately 90 thousand in the same period from 1.33 million to 1.24 million employees. 88 During the period between 2000 and 2003, output as a share of GDP declined slightly for the EU-25, whereas output as a share of OECD consumption increased. 89 The EU-25 has a large trade surplus with all groups of countries and this showed an increasing trend until 2002 after which it declined slightly. The surplus with developing countries followed a similar trend to that of the overall surplus. 90 Falling employment coupled with low output growth suggests that the chemicals sector is under increasing pressure from manufacturers based outside the EU. The large trade surplus that the EU has traditionally enjoyed has declined, particularly with developing countries.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 91 Output and employment data are only reported for Germany for the years 1999-2003. Output increased significantly from 87 billion in 1999 to 98 billion in 2000, and remained fairly constant since then. Employment dropped steadily from 386 thousand to 364 thousand between 1999 and 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased between 1999 and 2000, but fell subsequently until 2003 as the rest of the economy outpaced the chemicals sector. The self-sufficiency and import penetration ratios both increased marginally over the period observed indicating that domestic consumption fell during the period. The overall trade situation has

Figure 1: Share of global chemicals production, 2002

Total 2002 production: 1.3 trillion

Europe

32%

Asia

33%

Latin America

4%USA

26%

Others

5%

0%

0%

Source: CEFIC 2004

Chemicals

66

been extremely healthy with the trade surplus increasing steadily each year from 1995 to 2004. 92 French output increased from 50.8 billion in 1996 to

61.6 billion in 2003. Employment declined from 196 thousand in 1996 to 187 thousand in 2003. France’s trade surplus with all other countries declined from 4.26 billion in 1995 to 3.71 billion in 2004. This decline is due to the reduction in surplus with other EU-15 countries. The surplus with EU-10 countries increased from 0.24 billion in 1995 to 0.83 billion in 2004 and the surplus with developing countries remained unchanged. 93 Production in the UK fell marginally from 45 billion in 1997 to 43 billion in 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 4.1 per cent in 1996 to 2.7 per cent in 2003. Employment declined from 201 thousand in 1996 to 161 thousand in 2003. The overall trade surplus fell from 3.5 billion in 1995 to 1.4 billion in 2004. This fall is largely due to the change in trade balance with developing countries from a surplus of 1.97 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 0.54 in 2004. The data for the United Kingdom clearly show the possibility of relocation in the sector. 94 Italy’s output increased steadily from 34.1 billion in 1995 to 44.5 billion in 2002 but subsequently dropped in 2003 to 43 billion. Employment declined from 135 thousand in 1995 to 123 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP and as a share of OECD consumption remained fairly steady over that period as did the self-sufficiency ratio. The import penetration ratio, on the other hand, increased marginally. Italy had a trade deficit of 5 billion with all other countries in 1995 and this deficit increased slowly to 6.33 billion in 2004. This deficit is largely driven by the evolution of its trade position with other EU-15 countries. The deficit with other EU-15 countries increased from 5.4 billion in 1995 to 7.7 billion in 2004. Italy kept a small trade surplus with both EU-10 countries and developing countries throughout the period. The data suggest that there has been some labour productivity gains in the sector along with increased imports from other EU-15 countries. There is no suggestion of any relocation to EU-10 Member States or to developing countries. 95 Dutch output increased from 21.6 billion in 1995 to

28.0 billion in 2003. During this period, employment increased from 49 thousand to 52 thousand. Output as a share of GDP and as a share of OECD consumption remained fairly constant over the period: the self-sufficiency ratio increased over the period from 1.3 per cent to 1.4 per cent while the import penetration ratio increased from 0.67 per cent to 0.86 per cent. The Netherlands maintains a large trade surplus, mainly with other EU-15 countries. The surplus with the EU-15 countries increased from 4.5 billion in 1995 to 8.7 billion in 2004. All the indicators suggest that the industry is in a healthy position and there is no evidence of relocation.


Germany 27%

France 17%

United Kingdom12%

Italy 12%

Other 32%



1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

1340

1360

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

Pro

duct

ion



3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Chemicals

67

Relocation indicators: other Member States 96 Amongst other countries, Slovakia saw a decline in production from 0.8 billion in 1995 to 0.7 billion in 2003. Employment also declined from 22 thousand to 11 thousand during the same period. Though the data are not sufficient to discern a trend in the trade balance, Slovakia has a trade deficit of 0.56 billion with the rest of the world, of which 0.39 billion is with EU-15 countries. 97 Though the Belgian output and employment has remained fairly stable between 1995 and 2003, its trade balance with developing countries has changed from a surplus of 1.1 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 2.1 billion in 2003. 98 The Czech Republic has seen a drop in employment from 36 thousand in 1995 to 30 thousand 2003. Output increased over the period from 1.5 billion in 1995 to 2.9 billion in 2003. In terms of trade, the Czech Republic had a trade deficit with the EU-15 of 0.72 in 1999 which increased to 1.2 billion in 2004.

Triangulating the evidence 99 Taken together, the evidence does not suggest widespread relocation at an EU level. Output has been reasonably steady, while employment has gradually declined. The EU’s external trade balance is very healthy, though it has declined slightly after 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption is increasing. 100 Some of the larger producers like Germany, France and Italy have seen declining levels of employment. However, this is also accompanied by increases in output. The trade data for these countries show no signs of increased net imports from developing or EU-10 countries. Given this evidence, the decline in employment can be reasonably attributed to improved labour productivity and internal restructuring rather than relocation. 101 On the other hand the data for United Kingdom suggest that some relocation may have occurred. Employment and output have declined and the trade deficit with developing countries has increased. Slovakia may have also experienced some relocation, though the data are insufficient to point to the destination.

Chemicals

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 3.92 1.93 1.73 0.50 0.48 0.55 0.68 0.81 0.79 0.46 0.36

Belgium 21.83 6.08 7.95 1.89 2.68 0.68 0.53 1.26 1.16 0.98 1.13

Denmark 2.56 1.09 1.36 0.23 0.31 0.99 0.89 0.85 1.00 0.35 0.41

Finland 4.18 2.63 2.90 0.42 0.51 0.54 0.51 0.89 0.90 0.46 0.52

France 61.67 4.17 3.89 7.45 7.57 0.44 0.49 1.10 1.07 0.85 0.76

Germany 96.08 4.36 4.44 11.46 11.79 0.19 0.23 1.16 1.18 1.06 1.01

Greece

Ireland 22.32 15.27 16.05 1.81 2.74 34.37 1.22 143.30 6.39 0.69 0.61

Italy 42.92 3.33 3.30 4.90 5.27 0.38 0.39 0.87 0.87 0.63 0.56

Luxembourg 1.37 0.03 1.01 0.45 0.36

Netherlands 28.05 5.85 5.89 2.86 3.44 0.85 0.87 1.34 1.40 0.73 0.66

Portugal 2.78 2.02 2.03 0.30 0.34 0.56 0.58 0.62 0.65 0.32 0.29

Spain 25.59 3.59 3.28 2.72 3.14 0.23 0.29 0.93 0.92 0.65 0.58

Sweden 5.41 1.94 2.09 0.60 0.63 0.67 0.68 0.75 0.89 0.49 0.44

United Kingdom 43.24 3.30 2.71 5.91 5.31 0.46 0.55 1.11 1.08 0.70 0.58

EU15 360.55 3.93 3.88 41.05 44.25 0.77 0.70

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.06 0.53 0.01 0.83 0.24 0.23

Czech Republic 2.90 4.18 3.62 0.30 0.36 0.47 0.51 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.64

Estonia 0.19 2.29 0.02 0.93 0.62 0.42

Hungary 2.16 0.87 2.93 0.05 0.26 1.37 0.73 0.38 0.72 0.55 0.50

Latvia 0.06 0.62 0.57 0.01 0.01 1.03 1.08 0.22 0.23 0.18 0.26

Lithuania 0.37 2.22 0.04 0.98 0.78 0.28

Malta 0.03 0.86 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.91 0.27 0.21 0.32 0.28

Poland 5.64 2.90 2.69 0.60 0.65 0.50 0.39

Slovakia 0.78 3.38 2.70 0.08 0.10 0.83 0.54

Slovenia 0.74 1.26 2.97 0.03 0.09 1.31 0.83 0.50 0.67 0.28 0.71

EU10 12.91 2.62 2.87 1.13 1.58 0.54 0.46

EU25 373.46 3.88 3.84 42.19 45.84 0.73 0.66

Notes:



(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

68

Chemicals


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -0.90 -1.04 -1.37 -1.69 0.31 0.38 0.15 0.55

Belgium 3.01 3.48 2.08 2.45 0.23 0.32 0.22 -2.11 35 0 105 140

Denmark -0.31 -0.30 -0.62 -0.66 0.02 0.03 0.20 0.02

Finland -0.41 -0.41 -0.69 -0.76 0.10 0.08 0.19 0.36

France 5.38 3.72 1.52 0.09 0.55 0.84 2.37 2.36

Germany 11.82 14.58 4.86 5.00 1.37 1.83 2.79 3.81 400 800 1200

Greece -1.38 -2.07 -1.40 -1.96 0.05 0.08 0.07 -0.03

Ireland 13.74 18.47 8.16 8.86 0.06 0.04 0.41 0.79

Italy -5.78 -6.33 -6.76 -7.77 0.26 0.33 0.81 1.35 185 185

Luxembourg -0.31 -0.39 -0.28 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.04

Netherlands 5.55 8.73 5.68 8.70 0.31 0.56 0.52 0.57

Portugal -1.42 -1.46 -1.29 -1.37 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04

Spain -1.65 -2.28 -2.04 -3.36 0.04 0.11 0.70 1.76 140 140

Sweden -1.55 -0.79 -1.73 -1.80 0.07 0.10 0.22 0.62

United Kingdom 4.31 1.45 0.66 0.24 0.35 0.40 1.41 -0.54 560 560

EU15 23.32 29.75 3.72 5.08 10.02 9.42 540 220 1360 105 2225


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.14 -0.20 -0.12 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Czech Republic -0.67 -1.08 -0.73 -1.18 0.10 0.09 0.02 -0.02

Estonia -0.11 -0.12 -0.10 -0.15 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.00

Hungary -0.64 -0.73 -0.56 -0.82 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.07 124 124

Latvia -0.15 -0.21 -0.09 -0.13 -0.03 -0.05 -0.02 -0.03

Lithuania -0.06 -0.08 0.02 0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.08

Malta -0.09 -0.10 -0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -2.16 -2.48 0.17 0.22

Slovakia -0.56 -0.39 -0.11 -0.04

Slovenia -0.26 -0.55 -0.31 -0.69 -0.01 -0.09 0.07 0.24

EU10 -2.13 -5.78 -1.96 -6.09 0.02 0.35 124 124

EU25 19.43 24.98 10.04 9.77 540 344 1360 105 2349








69

Chemicals

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

70

Chemicals

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.38

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

71

Chemicals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

72

Chemicals

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Product

ion


2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


182

184

186

188

190

192

194

196

198

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Product

ion


3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

73

Chemicals

1.13

1.135

1.14

1.145

1.15

1.155

1.16

1.165

1.17

1.175

1.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.2

0.21

0.22

0.23

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

Product

ion


4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

74

Chemicals

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


18

18.5

19

19.5

20

20.5

21

21.5

22

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-50

0

50

100

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

75

Chemicals

0.855

0.86

0.865

0.87

0.875

0.88

0.885

0.89

0.895

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

76

Chemicals

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

77

Chemicals

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.34

0.36

0.38

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

0.0045

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4

1.42

1.44

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

78

Chemicals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

79

Chemicals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

80

Chemicals

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8082

8486

8890

9294

9698

100102

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

81

Chemicals

1.06

1.065

1.07

1.075

1.08

1.085

1.09

1.095

1.1

1.105

1.11

1.115

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

82

Electromechanical engineering

83


Sector definition 102 The electromechanical engineering sector, for the purposes of this study, covers the NACE divisions set out in Table 1. Table 1: NACE divisions within the electromechanical

engineering sector

28 - Manufacture of fabricated metals products29 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment 31 - Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus 32 - Manufacture of radio, television and communication apparatus 33 - Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks.

Data coverage 103 Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on production and employment are reasonably good for the electromechanical engineering sector. Data are not available for Greece and data on Germany, Hungary and Malta are only available for the years 1999-2003. The coverage of COMEXT on external trade is fairly good. 104 Data on FDI and input-output measures are available for this sector.

Context 105 According to the data from SBS, in 2003, the total output of the sector in the EU-25 was 1301 billions and there were 9.9 million people employed. 106 On the basis of 2003 data, the sector made up 13.3 per cent of total EU-25 GDP. The output of the sector as a share of OECD consumption was 46.7 per cent for the EU25 and 44.1 per cent for the EU-15. The EU-25 enjoyed a trade surplus of 48 billion in 2004 with the rest of the world. 107 Germany, Italy, France, United Kingdom and Spain are the largest producers in the EU-25. Together, they accounted in 2003 for over 80 per cent of total EU-25 output with Germany alone accounting for almost a third of the EU-25 output.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 108 EU-25 output in the electromechanical engineering sector increased from 1,209 billion in 1999 to 1,345 billion in 2001 but fell subsequently, to 1,301 in 2003. Employment followed a similar pattern; numbers increased from 10.13 million in 1999 to 10.37 million in 2000 and subsequently fell and by 2003 it accounted for 9.90 million employees across the EU-25. Output as a share of EU-25 GDP increased from 14.5 per cent in 1999 to 15.0 per cent 2000 before declining to 13.3 per cent by 2003. 109 The EU-25 had an overall trade surplus of 8.5 billion in 1999 and this increased to 48.1 billion in 2003. The

surplus with developing countries increased from 30.0 billion in 1999 to 43.5 billion in 2003.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 110 Output in Germany does not show a discernible trend, varying within the range of 385 billion and 400 billion between 1999 and 2003. Employment has declined from 2.85 million in 1999 to 2.77 million in 2003. Output as a share of GDP fell from 19.5 per cent in 1999 to 18.2 per cent in 2003. Output as share of OECD consumption fell from 14.06 per cent in 1999 to 11.20 per cent in 2000 before increasing to 14.21 percent in 2003. The trade balance improved steadily in the period 1999-2004; trade surplus rose from 52 billion to 100 billion in 2004. The surplus with developing countries has increased from

19.6 billion in 1995 to 28.4 billion in 2004. The import penetration and self-sufficiency ratios both showed an upward trend over the period suggesting a declining level of German consumption. 111 Italy’s output increased from 153 billion in 1995 to

227 billion in 2003. Employment also rose from 1.2 million to 1.4 million during the same period. Output as a share of GDP has been quite volatile, hitting a peak of 19 per cent in 2000 before declining to 17.4 per cent in 2003. Output as share of OECD consumption has increased from 6.5 per cent in 1995 to 8.1 per cent in 2003. Italy’s trade surplus with the rest of the world increased from

24.9 billion in 1995 to 33.5 billion in 2004. Its surplus with EU-10 countries increased from 1.84 billion in 1995 to 3.55 billion in 2004. During the same period, the surplus with developing countries increased from

13.0 billion to 17.5 billion. 112 French output increased from 145.3 billion in 1996 to

176.8 billion in 2003. Employment increased from 1.18 million in 1996 to 1.25 million in 2001 before dropping to 1.19 million in 2003. Over the period from 1996 to 2003, the French self-sufficiency ratio dropped while the import penetration ratio remained fairly steady. France had an increasing overall trade deficit, standing at 9.2 billion in 2003. The deficit with other EU-15 countries was even larger, increasing from 5.4 in 1995 to 15.6 billion in 2004. On the other hand, France had a trade surplus with developing countries, remaining fairly steady at around

10 billion. 113 The UK’s output increased from 112.2 billion in 1996 to 171.3 billion in 2000 before declining to 127.5 billion in 2003. Employment fell from 1.28 million in 1996 to 978 thousand in 2003. Output as share of GDP dropped from 11.9 per cent in 1996 to 7.9 per cent in 2003. Output as share of OECD consumption declined from 4.6 per cent to 4.5 per cent during the same period. The self-sufficiency ratio declined from 1.00 to 0.92 and the import penetration ratio increased from 0.69 to 0.78 between 1996 and 2003. Trade data show that the UK’s overall trade deficit increased from 0.7 billion in 1995 to

20.3 billion in 2004. This deficit is largely driven by the


84

UK’s deficit with other EU-15 Member States and with OECD countries. 114 Spain’s output increased steadily from 40.47 billion in 1995 to 77.24 billion in 2004. Employment levels also rose: from 468 thousand in 1995 to 658 thousand in 2003. The growth in production is reflected in the increasing share of output in relation to Spanish GDP and in relation to OECD consumption. Output as a share of Spanish GDP increased from 8.8 per cent in 1995 to 9.9 per cent in 2003. Output as share the value of OECD consumption increased from 6.9 per cent to 18.3 per cent during the same period. The self-sufficiency ratio declined marginally from 0.86 in 1995 to 0.84 in 2003 whilst the import penetration ratio remained roughly stable. Spain held an overall trade deficit which increased from 6.4 billion in 1995 to 17 billion in 2004. The deficit with other EU-15 countries also increased from 6.6 billion to

14.8 billion during the same period. Spain has a trade surplus with developing countries and this surplus remained stable during the period.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 115 Finland’s output increased from 17.3 billion in 1995 to 34.7 billion in 2003. Employment also increased from 123 thousand to 164 thousand during that same period. The sector accounts for a considerable share of Finland’s GDP, 17.3 per cent in 1995 and 24.1 per cent in 2003. As a share of OECD consumption, Finnish output increased from 0.74 per cent to 1.24 per cent between those two years. The self-sufficiency ratio increased from 1.1 to 1.2 and the import penetration ratio fell from 0.54 to 0.45 over 1995-2003. Trade data reveal that from 1995 to 2004, Finnish overall trade surplus increased from 1.8 to

5.7 billion whereas its trade surplus with developing countries increased, over that same period, from 2.0 billion to 6.2 billion. 116 Austria’s output increased from 24.0 billion in 1995 to

32.8 billion in 2003. Employment remained roughly stable at around 210 thousand. Between 1995 and 2003, output as a share of GDP increased from 13.1 per cent to 14.4 per cent while as a share of OECD consumption it increased from 1.03 per cent to 1.18 per cent. Over this same period, the import penetration ratio increased from 0.72 to 1.05. The overall trade surplus increased from

1.35 billion in 1995 to 4.06 billion in 2004. 117 The Czech employment in the sector fell from 437 thousand in 1995 to 421 thousand in 2003. Output, on the other hand, rose from 7.9 billion to 19 billion during this period. The situation in Poland is similar to that in the Czech Republic — from 1996 to 2003, employment fell from 569 thousand to 481 thousand, and output increased from 11.9 billion to 21.5 billion.

Triangulating the evidence 118 At the EU-25 level, the data send mixed signals. Output has declined slightly and employment has fallen. On the other hand the trade surplus with the rest of the world, particularly with developing countries has


Germany 33%

Italy 18%France 14%

United Kingdom10%

Other 25%



9600

9700

9800

9900

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

10500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

Pro

duct

ion



12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



85

increased. The sector played a smaller role in the economy of the EU-25 in 2003 than it did in 1999. Output of the sector as a share of OECD consumption increased, suggesting a growth in these countries’ share of the global market. 119 Germany, the UK, Czech Republic and Poland have seen employment drop, while Italy, France and Spain have seen employment rise. Except for the UK, none of the countries where employment fell also reported a drop in output. The trade data for these countries do not show deterioration in trade balances with developing countries. 120 It is difficult to draw any conclusions from the data. One possibility is that labour productivity has increased leading to falling employment on the one hand and better export performances on the other. The other possibility is that some activities are being relocated to low cost countries, but that this is being hidden by increased exports to these countries. It is also possible that the actual picture is a combination of both these possibilities.


Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 32.82 13.54 14.46 0.97 1.18 0.92 1.05 1.06 1.12 0.30 0.36 0.59 0.72 5.59 5.60

Belgium 26.90 10.53 9.79 0.90 0.97 1.27 1.40 0.85 0.90 0.44 0.57 0.92 1.06 3.74 3.58

Denmark 22.15 11.85 11.74 0.69 0.80 0.50 0.52 1.02 1.07 0.16 0.21 0.56 0.64 5.89 5.61

Finland 34.73 24.70 24.15 1.07 1.25 0.46 0.45 1.18 1.21 0.32 0.37 0.74 0.75 6.64 6.88

France 176.85 12.28 11.16 6.00 6.36 0.55 0.54 1.00 0.96 5.33 4.83

Germany 395.67 19.54 18.29 14.06 14.22 0.42 0.54 1.16 1.26 0.12 0.18 0.28 0.39 7.83 7.66

Greece

Ireland 15.14 13.52 10.89 0.44 0.54 13.50 4.43 7.94 3.25 4.55 3.61

Italy 227.09 16.82 17.46 6.78 8.16 0.33 0.31 1.14 1.15 0.15 0.19 0.39 0.45 6.54 6.51

Luxembourg 1.67 8.18 7.31 0.05 0.06 1.80 3.47 0.94 1.32 3.49 3.32

Netherlands 31.85 7.65 6.69 1.02 1.14 2.53 3.13 0.96 1.15 0.19 0.26 0.73 0.95 3.51 2.69

Portugal 12.12 9.41 8.85 0.38 0.44 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.74 3.61 3.16

Spain 77.24 10.54 9.90 2.19 2.78 0.34 0.36 0.85 0.84 3.90 3.81

Sweden 47.46 21.14 18.33 1.80 1.58 0.61 0.64 1.25 1.21 0.27 0.39 0.66 0.95 7.15 6.41

United Kingdom 127.56 11.00 7.98 5.41 4.58 0.70 0.79 0.98 0.93 4.43 3.52

EU15 1229.23 14.56 13.21 41.76 44.17 5.67 5.26

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.09 0.80 0.00 0.96 0.09 0.53

Czech Republic 18.99 19.63 23.67 0.39 0.68 0.81 0.97 0.87 0.99 8.88 8.91

Estonia 0.82 6.67 10.07 0.01 0.03 0.82 0.72 0.52 0.57 3.52 4.32

Hungary 18.62 16.31 25.32 0.26 0.67 1.59 1.17 0.90 1.05 0.61 1.33 1.15 2.53 5.66 6.66

Latvia 0.41 3.30 4.13 0.01 0.01 0.89 0.91 0.25 0.29 1.90 2.09

Lithuania 1.05 4.43 6.39 0.02 0.04 0.92 0.90 0.39 0.49 2.52 2.97

Malta 1.28 33.41 29.82 0.04 0.04 1.01 1.09 0.91 1.01 4.06 3.95

Poland 21.50 9.23 10.27 0.52 0.71 3.50 3.50

Slovakia 4.40 11.55 15.20 0.08 0.16 5.66 6.00

Slovenia 5.24 19.20 21.06 0.14 0.19 0.66 0.69 0.90 1.01 0.40 0.37 0.88 0.97 8.66 8.95

EU10 72.40 12.45 16.11 1.48 2.60 4.83 5.10

EU25 1301.63 14.48 13.34 43.24 46.77 5.54 5.24

Notes:




(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

86



ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 1.41 4.06 -2.47 -1.89 1.28 0.31 2.01 3.93 100 0 385 0 485

Belgium -4.49 -3.38 -1.09 0.88 0.14 -0.47 0.49 0.06 0 0 126 0 126

Denmark 0.37 1.71 -1.43 -0.80 0.23 0.15 0.70 0.66 770 418 241 163 1592

Finland 4.56 5.70 -0.07 -1.92 1.14 0.36 2.84 6.23 360 575 2557 0 3492

France -0.51 -9.28 -6.42 -15.62 1.04 0.29 8.85 9.33 1516 0 2511 0 4027

Germany 53.43 100.08 32.90 52.73 3.05 4.04 14.63 28.45 1990 1300 1875 0 5165

Greece -6.37 -6.80 -5.40 -5.52 0.04 -0.12 -0.11 -0.21

Ireland 10.71 11.28 10.91 7.29 0.25 0.25 -0.68 -0.52 465 0 290 0 755

Italy 23.32 33.54 5.51 6.64 2.73 3.55 12.43 17.51 385 0 1400 0 1785

Luxembourg -0.09 0.49 0.16 2.81 0.05 0.13 -0.11 -2.33

Netherlands -1.09 6.29 20.29 33.91 -0.13 1.56 -14.21 -23.49 660 0 400 0 1060

Portugal -5.09 -4.41 -4.49 -4.52 0.04 -0.20 0.09 0.48 0 98 130 0 228

Spain -10.78 -17.08 -9.89 -14.78 0.14 -0.86 1.88 1.48 320 0 0 0 320

Sweden 10.21 9.23 0.49 -1.58 0.75 -0.48 4.80 6.51 885 275 675 0 1835

United Kingdom -3.59 -20.34 9.40 -9.25 0.59 -1.00 -2.54 -1.69 1410 0 2510 420 4340

EU15 23.59 62.73 11.34 7.51 31.09 46.40


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.73 -0.93 -0.42 -0.68 0.00 -0.02 -0.16 -0.13

Czech Republic -1.67 1.60 -0.84 2.08 0.33 1.07 -0.28 -0.78 0 0 130 0 130

Estonia -0.33 -0.72 -0.24 -0.55 0.01 -0.07 0.12 0.08

Hungary -0.78 1.69 1.31 6.24 -0.05 0.12 -1.13 -3.17 0 0 620 0 620

Latvia -0.66 -1.08 -0.51 -0.83 -0.08 -0.16 -0.02 -0.01

Lithuania -0.71 -1.20 -0.43 -1.03 -0.04 -0.20 -0.10 0.03

Malta -0.11 0.01 -0.32 -0.36 0.00 0.03 0.27 0.38

Poland -5.63 -4.22 -0.14 -0.20 0 110 0 0 110

Slovakia -2.11 -0.77 -0.72 -0.18 600 0 0 0 600

Slovenia -0.43 0.20 -0.41 -0.96 0.03 0.09 0.23 1.07 0 0 396 0 396

EU10 -5.62 -8.17 -1.86 -1.07 -1.07 -2.90

EU25 8.48 48.13 30.02 43.50

Notes:











87


0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


198

200

202

204

206

208

210

212

214

216

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Product

ion


12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Product

ion


8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

88


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


410

415

420

425

430

435

440

445

450

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

89


0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

90


1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Product

ion


10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

91


1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


2700

2720

2740

2760

2780

2800

2820

2840

2860

2880

2900

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

375

380

385

390

395

400

405

Product

ion


17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

92


0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

93


1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

Product

ion


15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.23

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.865

0.87

0.875

0.88

0.885

0.89

0.895

0.9

0.905

0.91

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

94


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

95


0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.155

0.16

0.165

0.17

0.175

0.18

0.185

0.19

0.195

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

96


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


150

155

160

165

170

175

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Product

ion


8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

97


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


72

74

76

78

80

82

84

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

98


0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

99


0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

100


0200400600800

1000120014001600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Investment in domestic capital (Euro million)Foreign Direct Investment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Within EU-15 Within EU-10 Outside EU-25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech Republic

101


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

5

10

15

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


010002000300040005000600070008000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

102


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-50000

50001000015000200002500030000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-10-505

10152025

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-25-20-15-10-505

10

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0200400600800

100012001400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

103


02000

400060008000

1000012000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


012345678

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

104


0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0100200300400500600700800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


01234567

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0100200300400500600700800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


050

100150200250300350400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Slovakia

105


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1000-500

0500

1000150020002500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

106

Financial services

107

Financial services

Sector definition 121 The financial services sector is defined with reference to the NACE divisions 65, 66 and 67. These divisions cover the activities set out in the table below. Table 1: Activities within NACE divisions 65, 66 and 67

65 - Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 65.10 - Monetary intermediation 65.11 - Central banking 65.12 - Other monetary intermediation 65.20 - Other financial intermediation 65.21 - Financial leasing 65.22 - Other credit granting 65.23 - Other financial intermediation n.e.c. 66 - Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 66.01 - Life insurance 66.02 - Pension funding 66.03 - Non-life insurance 67 - Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 67.10 - Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 67.11 - Administration of financial markets 67.12 - Security broking and fund management 67.13 - Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation n.e.c. 67.20 - Activities auxiliary to insurance and pension funding

122 The activities covered by the financial services sector are disparate ones. The definition of the sector used here matches that used by the Commission in its 2006 publication “European Business Facts and Figures”10

Data coverage 123 The datasets relied upon for analyses of the other sectors do not, with three exceptions, cover the financial services sector. The exceptions are the input-output tables, FDI data and the ERM job loss data. 124 There is scant coverage of the sector by Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) dataset; figures on the number of people employed or on value of production are not reported for most years for most of the Member States. COMEXT does not report on the trade in the services covered by this sector. 125 As noted above, the sector covers an array of services and, to the best of our knowledge, there is no single trade association or other body that compiles relevant data comprehensively and consistently.

10 Eurostat (2006) “European Business Facts and Figures” Available

from http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/portal/page?_pageid=1073,46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-BW-05-001

126 The input-output tables, FDI data and ERM job loss dataset do provide relevant information, and this is reported in the adjoining tables. Coverage of the FDI dataset is however scarce. We do not think these measures can, on their own, help us form a reliable assessment of relocation in the European financial services sector.

Drawing on existing studies 127 In the light of the absence of relevant data that are consistent and comprehensive, we explored the possibility of constructing an analysis on the basis of a review of relevant published reports and studies. However, we have found that approach not to be fruitful due to the limited body of literature concerned directly with the issue of relocation, as identified in this report, in financial services. Nor have we found it possible to construct a consistent and comprehensive body of evidence on the basis of a patchwork of studies that focus on issues that bear only some association with the question of relocation and which are not comprehensive in the coverage of the activities of the sector or in the coverage across the Member States.

Concluding comment 128 We have found no data on which to base an assessment of relocation in the financial services sector in Europe.

Financial services

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 0.05 0.39 0.06 0.47

Belgium 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.15

Denmark 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03

Finland 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.06

France

Germany 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.12

Greece

Ireland

Italy 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Luxembourg

Netherlands 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.06

Portugal

Spain

Sweden 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.08

United Kingdom

EU15

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.17

Latvia

Lithuania

Malta

Poland

Slovakia

Slovenia 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04

EU10

EU25

Notes:


(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

108

Financial services


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany 680 680

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom 18537 18537

EU15 19217 19217


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Malta

Poland

Slovakia

Slovenia

EU10

EU25 19217 19217








109

Financial services

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


020406080

100120140

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0100200300400500600700800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


020406080

100120140160

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech Republic

110

Financial services

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-202468

101214

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0100200300400500600700800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


02000400060008000

100001200014000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

111

Financial services

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0100

200300

400500

600700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


050

100150200250300350400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-500

50100150200250300

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

112

Financial services

0500

100015002000250030003500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

2

4

6

8

10

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


020000400006000080000

100000120000140000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

113

Financial services

010002000300040005000600070008000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-200-150-100-50

050

100150

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0200400600800

100012001400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Slovakia

114

Financial services

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-2000

200400600800

100012001400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-20000

2000400060008000

100001200014000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

115

Food and beverages

117

Food and beverages

Sector definition 129 The food and beverages sector is covered by the NACE division 15. This covers the entire range of activities related to the manufacture of processed foods and beverages.

Data coverage 130 The availability of production and employment data from Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) is not very good for the food and beverages sector. There are no data at all for Greece, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden. There are only limited data for many other Member States including Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. 131 The coverage of COMEXT on external trade is, by comparison, much better. 132 Data on input-output measures and ERM data are available for this sector. Data on FDI are available, but the coverage is not very good.

Context 133 The food and beverages sector is one of the largest in the EU, both in terms of output and employment. According to data from SBS, the total EU-25 output of this sector in 2003 was 611 billion. Data from the Confederation of the Food and Drink Industries of the EU, (CIAA) reports11 that the sector accounted for 14 per cent of the total manufacturing turnover in the EU. The sector’s output accounted for 7.2 per cent of EU-25’s GDP in 2003 according to SBS and, represented 42 per cent of total OECD consumption in the sector. 134 In terms of employment, SBS data report that the sector provided work for 3.3 million employees in 2003 across the EU-25. This estimate is below the 4.1 million figure reported by CIAA, also for 2003. 135 According to CIAA, in 2001, over 99 per cent of all manufacturers in the sector are small and medium enterprises, numbering over 279 thousand. These enterprises accounted for 49 per cent of the total turnover of the sector and employed 61 per cent of the employees. 136 The trade surplus in 2004 of the EU-25 with non-EU countries was 7 billion and the deficit with developing countries was just over 2 billion. 137 The major producers in this sector are Germany, France, United Kingdom and Spain. Together, they account for over 78 per cent of total EU-25 output.

11 CIAA (2005), “Data and trends of the EU food and drink industry,”

from http://www.ciaa.be/documents/news_events/Data_&_Trends_2005.pdf

Relocation indicators: EU-25 138 EU-25 output increased from 564 billion in 1999 to

611 billion in 2003. Employment fell from 3.39 million in 1999 to 3.06 million in 2000 and subsequently rose to 3.29 million in 2003. This pattern is reflected in the trend of output as a share of GDP and in that of output as a share of OECD consumption: a fall from 1999 to 200 and a subsequent rise until 2003. 139 The EU-25 had an overall trade surplus with the rest of the world of 8.07 billion in 1999. This increased to

11.14 billion in 2000 and subsequently fell, reaching 7.08 billion by 2004. The trade balance with developing

countries changed from a surplus of 1.79 billion in 1999 to a deficit of 2.14 billion by 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 140 Germany is the largest producer in the EU. German output dropped from 136.5 billion in 1999 to 125.7 in 2000 and then increased to 133.5 by 2003. Employment followed a similar pattern, declining from 870 thousand in 1999 to 784 thousand in 2001 before increasing to 812 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 6.78 percent in 1999 to 6.17 per cent in 2003. The self-sufficiency ratio remained broadly constant while the import penetration ratio increased slightly from 0.16 in 1999 to 0.19 in 2003. Germany’s overall trade deficit declined steadily from 4.62 billion in 1995 to 1.36 billion in 2004. 141 SBS data for French production and employment levels are only available for 1999, 2002 and 2003 and, therefore, it is difficult to discern any trends. However, we note that output increased from 117.6 billion in 1999 to 128.9 billion in 2003. Employment also increased over this same period, from 576 thousand to 611 thousand. France’s external trade balance remained fairly steady at around 11 billion throughout. 142 UK’s output increased from 78 billion in 1996 to 91billion in 2003. Employment increased from 485 thousand in 1996 to 528 thousand in 1999 but fell in the subsequent years so that there were 478 thousand employees in the sector in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 8.3 in 1996 per cent to 5.7 per cent in 2003. Between 1996 and 2003, the self-sufficiency ratio declined from 0.94 to 0.90 and the import penetration ratio increased from 0.18 to 0.22. The overall trade deficit increased steadily over the period we have observed: from 3.3 billion in 1995 to 11.3 billion in 2004. This deficit is largely accounted for by the deficit with other EU-15 countries. 143 Spain’s output increased from 50.4 billion in 1995 to

71.9 billion in 2003. Employment increased from 335 thousand in 1995 to 352 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 11.04 per cent to 9.41 per cent during the same period. Spain’s trade balance with developing countries changed from a surplus of 0.25 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 1.98 billion in 2004.

Food and beverages

118

Relocation indicators: other Member States 144 Italy’s output increased from 67.5 billion in 1995 to

90.7 billion in 2002. Employment increased from 304 thousand in 1995 to 329 thousand in 1999 before dropping to 318 thousand in 2002. The self-sufficiency ratio and import penetration ratio remained fairly steady over the period 1995-2002, while output as a share of GDP declined marginally. Italy had a trade deficit with other EU-15 countries, and this deficit remained fairly steady during 1995-2004. 145 Dutch output increased from 36.7 billion in 1995 to

42 billion in 2003. Employment declined from 136 thousand in 1999 to 126 thousand in 2003. The trade balance remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2004.

Triangulating the evidence 146 The available evidence does not suggest any relocation in this sector, either at the European level or at the level of individual Member States. 147 Output has been reasonably stable, employment has not displayed either an upward or downward trend and the trade balances have remained relatively steady. While some Member States have seen a drop in employment, the data suggest that this is more likely to be due to productivity gains rather than relocation.


Germany 25%

France 24%

United Kingdom17%

Spain 13%

Other 21%



2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Pro

duct

ion



5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Food and beverages

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 5.16 0.75 0.26 0.99 0.07 0.09 0.29 0.36 1.98

Belgium 27.38 9.61 9.97 1.66 1.90 0.48 0.49 1.07 1.09 0.58 0.60 1.35 1.32 2.21 2.17

Denmark 18.28 9.39 9.89 1.11 1.14 0.39 0.40 1.50 1.47 0.25 0.28 0.50 0.60 3.09 3.09

Finland 8.13 6.22 5.66 0.54 0.56 0.15 0.17 0.94 0.93 0.15 0.24 0.41 0.56 1.80 1.65

France 128.92 8.61 8.13 8.52 8.92 0.16 0.16 1.11 1.10 2.54 2.48

Germany 133.52 6.79 6.17 9.89 9.24 0.16 0.19 0.97 0.99 0.15 0.14 0.45 0.46 2.39 2.24

Greece

Ireland 19.48 17.04 14.00 1.12 1.35 0.19 0.18 1.29 1.21 2.96 2.74

Italy 90.73 7.39 7.20 6.04 5.67 0.16 0.17 0.97 0.98 0.20 0.19 0.49 0.47 1.58 1.45

Luxembourg

Netherlands 41.92 8.80 2.90 0.51 1.28 0.48 0.48 1.15 1.15 1.80 1.60

Portugal 10.33 8.59 7.54 0.71 0.71 0.29 0.31 0.83 0.83 2.20 1.97

Spain 71.94 10.24 9.22 4.30 4.98 0.15 0.17 0.99 0.99 2.36 2.04

Sweden 0.20 0.23 0.52 0.54

United Kingdom 91.26 6.51 5.71 6.48 6.32 0.20 0.22 0.92 0.90 1.92 1.72

EU15 599.96 7.75 7.22 40.37 41.52 2.17 2.01

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Estonia 0.79 11.98 9.71 0.05 0.05 0.33 0.41 0.89 0.89 3.67 3.12

Hungary 8.53 11.59 11.60 0.38 0.59 0.10 0.11 1.27 1.16 0.28 0.25 0.74 0.76 3.34 3.44

Latvia 3.74 3.49

Lithuania 11.48 0.08 0.22 0.94 3.73

Malta

Poland

Slovakia 2.26 8.42 8.76 0.12 0.14 2.26 2.20

Slovenia 7.78 0.11 0.22 0.91 0.33 0.25 0.75 0.74 2.41

EU10 11.58 10.75 10.47 0.54 0.80 3.11 3.06

EU25 611.54 7.78 7.26 40.91 42.32 2.22 2.06

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Denmark, Italy and Slovakia


3. 1999 and 2002 for Denmark, Italy and Slovakia

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

120

Food and beverages


ingcountries

ToOECD/non-

EUTotal

Austria -0.09 0.59 -0.43 -0.10 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.30

Belgium 1.42 2.73 1.31 2.57 0.06 0.03 0.13 -0.03 97 325 422

Denmark 5.10 5.05 3.91 3.76 0.09 0.14 0.52 0.35 630 630

Finland -0.49 -0.66 -0.70 -0.88 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.14

France 11.65 10.70 5.75 5.14 0.10 0.14 2.70 1.83

Germany -4.02 -1.37 -3.74 -0.42 0.07 -0.20 -0.05 -0.56 440 440

Greece -0.98 -1.98 -1.05 -1.85 0.04 0.02 -0.03 -0.19

Ireland 3.44 3.49 1.92 2.23 0.06 0.04 1.02 0.80

Italy -2.62 -3.15 -3.96 -4.63 0.08 0.08 -0.46 -1.25

Luxembourg -0.41 -0.49 -0.39 -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01

Netherlands 8.60 9.52 8.01 8.77 0.13 0.23 -0.28 -0.80

Portugal -2.05 -2.09 -1.55 -1.92 -0.01 0.00 -0.24 -0.17

Spain -0.81 -0.60 -0.40 0.42 0.03 0.11 -1.16 -1.98

Sweden -1.16 -1.52 -1.04 -1.37 0.00 0.06 0.03 -0.06

United Kingdom -7.38 -11.32 -5.76 -8.76 0.05 -0.07 -1.26 -1.72 476 173 649

EU15 8.33 6.39 0.79 0.64 1.22 -3.36 1013 955 173 2141


ingcountries

ToOECD/non-

EUTotal

Cyprus -0.20 -0.32 -0.14 -0.26 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.05

Czech Republic -0.16 -0.32 -0.20 -0.39 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.04

Estonia -0.08 -0.11 -0.09 -0.10 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01

Hungary 1.11 0.88 0.45 0.32 0.19 -0.02 0.40 0.48

Latvia -0.13 -0.17 -0.07 -0.10 -0.05 -0.09 0.01 0.03

Lithuania -0.07 0.04 -0.09 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0.04 0.10

Malta -0.17 -0.22 -0.15 -0.21 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01

Poland 1.20 0.41 0.30 0.42

Slovakia -0.15 -0.11 -0.05 0.02

Slovenia -0.15 -0.30 -0.17 -0.35 -0.07 -0.11 0.10 0.15

EU10 0.07 0.53 -0.47 -0.80 0.58 1.22

EU25 8.08 7.08 1.80 -2.15 1013 955 0 173 2141








121

Food and beverages

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

0.995

1

1.005

1.01

1.015

1.02

1.025

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


73.2

73.4

73.6

73.8

74

74.2

74.4

74.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

10

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

10.9

Product

ion


4.95

5

5.05

5.1

5.15

5.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8686.5

8787.5

8888.5

8989.5

9090.5

9191.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

122

Food and beverages

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.052

0.053

0.054

0.055

0.056

0.057

0.058

0.059

0.06

0.061

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

123

Food and beverages

1.38

1.4

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.5

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8081

8283

8485

8687

8889

9091

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

124

Food and beverages

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8

8.1

8.2

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.085

1.09

1.095

1.1

1.105

1.11

1.115

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.155

0.156

0.157

0.158

0.159

0.16

0.161

0.162

0.163

0.164

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

110112

114116

118120

122124

126128

130132

Product

ion


7.8

7.9

8

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

125

Food and beverages

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

Product

ion


5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

126

Food and beverages

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.096

0.098

0.1

0.102

0.104

0.106

0.108

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


10.811

11.211.411.611.8

1212.212.412.612.8

13

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.16

0.165

0.17

0.175

0.18

0.185

0.19

0.195

0.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

127

Food and beverages

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.15

0.155

0.16

0.165

0.17

0.175

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Product

ion


6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

128

Food and beverages

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


53.5

54

54.5

55

55.5

56

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.2

1.21

1.22

Product

ion


11

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12

12.2

12.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.08

0.082

0.084

0.086

0.088

0.09

0.092

0.094

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

129

Food and beverages

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.25

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.3

1.31

1.32

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

2.9

2.95

3

3.05

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

130

Food and beverages

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

440

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Product

ion


12.5

12.6

12.7

12.8

12.9

13

13.1

13.2

13.3

13.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

131

Food and beverages

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


46

46.5

47

47.5

48

48.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

8.9

9

9.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


21

21.1

21.2

21.3

21.4

21.5

21.6

21.7

21.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

Product

ion


7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.106

0.107

0.108

0.109

0.11

0.111

0.112

0.113

0.114

0.115

0.116

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

132

Food and beverages

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

0.995

1

1.005

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

355

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Product

ion


8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

133

Food and beverages

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

540

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

134

Food and beverages

0100

200300

400500

600700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0200400600800

100012001400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech Republic

135

Food and beverages

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


01020304050607080

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-150-100-50

050

100150200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-600-400-200

0200400600800

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

136

Food and beverages

01000200030004000500060007000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-800-600-400-200

0200400600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-202468

101214

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

137

Food and beverages

01000200030004000500060007000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-500

50100150200250300

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-12-10-8-6-4-2024

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

138

Food and beverages

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1.5-1

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2.5

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Slovakia

139

Food and beverages

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0200400600800

1000120014001600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

140

Glass industry

141

Glass industry

Sector definition 148 The glass industry is covered under the NACE subdivision 26.1. This covers the manufacture of glass and glass products.

Data coverage 149 The availability of data from Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) on production and employment are fairly good. There are no data on Greece and Luxembourg. Data on Cyprus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, and Malta are patchy. 150 COMEXT data on external trade are much better, while data on FDI are not available for the glass sector. Input-output tables are not specifically available for the glass sector, rather for glass, cement and ceramics together. However, we have opted to use these tables for both glass and cement because of their relative similarities. 151

Context 152 Data from Standing Committee of European Glass Industries (CPIV)12 show that the EU-15 glass industry has grown from an output of 26 million tonnes in 1995 to 29 million tonnes in 2004. This increase is mainly due to increases in production of flat glass and container glass. 153 According to information reported in a joint publication13 by the Standing Committee of European Glass Industries (CPIV), European Mine, Chemical and Energy Workers Federation (EMCEF) and Cérame-Unie, employment in the European Union has gone down by 40% between 1980 and 2002. 154 Of relevance to this study, the publication also mentions that the glass industry has undergone a period of restructuring and reorganisation, and that investments in low cost countries are on the rise. 155 According to data from SBS, the glass industry in the EU-25 in 2003 had a total output of 40.9 billion and employed 355 thousand people. The EU-25 region had a trade surplus of 2.5 billion with the rest of the world in 2004. 156 The largest producers in the sector are Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom and Spain. Combined, these countries accounted for over 76 per cent of total EU-25 production in 2003.

12 CPIV Statistics, EU Glass Production. Available from

http://www.cpivglass.be/main.html 13 DG Enterprise (2004) “Conference on the future of the European

Ceramics and Glass industries – Creating the conditions for sustainability” Available from http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/steel/conference_glass-ceramics/proceedings_en.pdf

Relocation indicators: EU-25 157 Production figures from SBS show that EU-25 output increased from 36 billion in 1999 to 42 billion in 2001 and then fell slightly; in 2003, output was at 41 billion. Employment followed a similar pattern, increasing from 365 thousand in 1999 to 375 thousand in 2001 and then declining to 355 thousand in 2003. 158 Output as a share of EU-25 GDP mirrored the changes in output itself, increasing until 2001 and then declining. Output as share of OECD consumption, on the other hand, increased year on year in the period 2000-2003. 159 The EU-25 held a trade surplus with the rest of the world throughout the period from 1999-2004. This surplus increased from 2.03 billion in 1999 to 2.56 billion in 2004. The surplus with developing countries followed a similar trend, increasing from 0.86 billion in 1999 to 1.20 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 160 German output increased from 8.8 billion in 1999 to

9.4 billion in 2001; it subsequently fell to 8.7 billion by 2003. Employment followed a similar pattern, increasing from 69 thousand in 1999 to 71 thousand in 2000 before declining to 64 thousand by 2003. Output as a share of GDP, as the value of output itself, increased between 1999 and 2000 and declined steadily after. However, this was not the pattern of output as share of OECD consumption; this indicator fell from 1999 to 2000 and then increased in the years to 2003. The self-sufficiency ratio and the import penetration ratio rose steadily from 1999-2003. Germany enjoyed a surplus in trade with the rest of the world; the positive balance increased from

0.35 billion in 1995 to 1.3 billion in 2004. 161 French production rose from 6.2 billion in 1996 to

7.2 billion in 2000 only to fall to 7.1 billion by 2003. Employment, on the other hand fell from 53 thousand in 1996 to 50 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 0.5 per cent in 1996 to 0.4 per cent in 2003. The self-sufficiency ratio dropped steadily throughout the 1996-2003 period while the import penetration ratio has increased. French trade surplus with all countries decreased marginally from 0.74 billion in 1995 to 0.57 billion in 2004. The trade balance with other EU-15 countries rose from a surplus of 0.10 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 0.17 billion in 2004. The balances with EU-10 and developing countries have remained fairly constant over the same period. 162 Italy’s output rose from 4.0 billion in 1995 to 6.4 billion in 2003. Employment increased from 36 thousand to 40 thousand during the same period. Output as a share of GDP and as a share of OECD consumption remained fairly steady over 1995-2003. The import penetration ratio declined from 0.29 per cent in 1995 to 0.23 per cent in 2003. Italy’s trade surplus with all countries has increased from 0.29 billion in 1995 to 0.55 billion in 2004. The surplus with EU-15 countries has also

Glass industry

142

increased from 0.13 billion to 0.3 billion during the same period. On the other hand, Italy held a fairly constant trade deficit with EU-10 countries throughout 1995-2004. 163 The UK saw a slight increase in output in the period from 1996 to 2003, from 3.3 billion to 4.2 billion respectively. Employment, on the other hand, declined steadily from 39 thousand in 1996 to 32 thousand in 2003. The self-sufficiency ratio fell slightly from 0.92 per cent in 1996 to 0.89 per cent in 2003, while the import penetration ratio rose from 0.29 per cent to 0.34 per cent during the same period. The UK’s trade deficit with all countries increased from 0.23 billion in 1995 to 0.5 billion in 2004. In fact, the UK exhibited an increasing deficit with all groups of countries, including other EU countries and with the set of developing countries. 164 Spain’s output and employment both rose in the period from 1995 to 2003. The value of production increased from 2.12 billion in 1995 to 3.25 billion in 2003. During the same period, employment rose from 22 thousand to 25 thousand. Output as a share of GDP remained roughly the same, at around 0.45 per cent. Output as a share of OECD consumption increased marginally from 0.69 per cent to 0.91 per cent. The import penetration ratio remained steady whereas the self-sufficiency ratio declined. Trade data reveal that Spain’s account were virtually balanced in 1995 (it registered a deficit of 4 million in 1995) which worsened to a 0.29 billion deficit in 2004. This increase is mainly due to growth in net imports from other EU-15 countries: Spain’s deficit with other EU-15 countries increased from

0.06 billion in 1995 to 0.22 billion in 2004. The evidence suggests that although output and employment increased, consumption rose faster than these. The shortfall was met by increased imports from other EU-15 countries.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 165 Amongst other countries, Belgium saw a slight drop in employment from 12 thousand in 1995 to 10 thousand in 2003, though output increased during the same period. 166 Czech output increased consistently from 0.63 billion in 1995 to 1.45 billion in 2003. However, employment levels fluctuated considerably, increasing from 30 thousand in 1999 to 36 thousand in 2001 before declining to 32 thousand in 2003. The Czech trade balance showed an overall surplus of 0.56 billion in 1999 and this rose to

0.83 billion by 2004. 167 Austria’s output and employment rose in the period 1995-2003; output increased from 0.84 billion to 1.22 billion and employment from 7.9 thousand to 10.5 thousand over this period. Austria’s trade position also improved steadily, showing an increasing overall surplus throughout the 1995-2004 period.

Triangulating the evidence 168 At the European level, the data suggest that there has been a slowdown in the industry since 2000. Production


Germany 22%

France 18%

Italy 17%

United Kingdom11%

Other 32%



340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

Pro

duct

ion



0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Glass industry

143

and employment have fallen gradually, while imports have not increased correspondingly. This suggests that the fall in production and employment is more likely to reflect general economic trends rather than any process of relocation. 169 Data for Germany and France, the Europe’s largest producers, broadly reflect the same trend as the EU-25 as a whole. Data for Italy and Spain, on the other hand, show growth in output and employment levels throughout. 170 Indicators for the UK are mixed: output increased while employment fell, and imports grew faster than exports. This suggests that over the period 1995-2003, consumption rose faster than domestic output and that the excess domestic demand was met by imports. 171 The picture that emerges from the data is not one of relocation, but rather one of a sector that is experiencing a drop in domestic demand. This drop in demand has caused output in some countries to fall, along with employment.

Glass industry

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 1.20 0.46 0.53 0.26 0.34 0.70 0.67 1.13 1.31 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.35 0.23 0.28

Belgium 2.56 0.78 0.93 0.54 0.72 0.87 0.72 1.61 1.43 0.16 0.21 0.52 0.68 0.28 0.26

Denmark 0.35 0.33 0.19 0.16 0.10 0.51 0.83 0.83 0.69 0.09 0.07 0.41 0.34 0.17 0.10

Finland 0.61 0.45 0.42 0.16 0.17 0.34 0.37 1.28 1.37 0.11 0.09 0.38 0.35 0.20 0.19

France 7.08 0.49 0.45 1.95 2.00 0.33 0.34 1.12 1.09 0.23 0.20

Germany 8.68 0.44 0.40 2.53 2.45 0.29 0.37 1.10 1.16 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.25 0.19 0.18

Greece

Ireland 0.38 0.46 0.28 0.12 0.11 0.48 0.63 1.24 1.16 0.24 0.18

Italy 6.48 0.47 0.50 1.52 1.83 0.26 0.23 1.10 1.09 0.04 0.04 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.18

Luxembourg

Netherlands 1.04 0.28 0.22 0.30 0.29 0.78 0.78 0.92 0.88 0.17 0.14 0.43 0.47 0.09 0.08

Portugal 0.70 0.54 0.51 0.18 0.20 0.32 0.38 1.04 1.09 0.19 0.16

Spain 3.26 0.49 0.42 0.81 0.92 0.26 0.31 0.94 0.94 0.16 0.15

Sweden 0.62 0.21 0.24 0.15 0.16 0.66 0.61 0.89 0.91 0.05 0.06 0.37 0.38 0.12 0.11

United Kingdom 4.22 0.30 0.26 1.19 1.19 0.29 0.34 0.92 0.90 0.13 0.12

EU15 37.20 0.43 0.40 9.86 10.50 0.18 0.16

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.01 0.10 0.00 0.71 0.30

Czech Republic 1.46 1.72 1.81 0.28 0.41 0.45 0.59 2.43 2.04 0.68 0.70

Estonia 0.07 0.89 0.02 0.58 0.94 0.18

Hungary 0.25 0.34 0.07 1.02 0.84 0.10 0.10 0.52 0.43 0.16

Latvia 0.02 0.21 0.17 0.00 0.00 2.17 1.95 1.44 0.77 0.12 0.11

Lithuania 0.05 0.28 0.01 0.72 0.60 0.11

Malta 0.01 0.21 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.73 0.40 0.40 0.15 0.12

Poland 1.42 0.61 0.68 0.28 0.37 0.28 0.28

Slovakia 0.29 0.72 0.99 0.04 0.08 0.33 0.36

Slovenia 0.13 0.64 0.54 0.04 0.04 0.73 0.77 1.03 0.75 0.16 0.30 0.63 0.70 0.36 0.33

EU10 3.70 0.75 0.82 0.72 1.04 0.32 0.32

EU25 40.90 0.44 0.42 10.58 11.55 0.20 0.19

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Cyprus, Malta and Poland


3. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Cyprus, Malta and Poland

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

144

Glass industry


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.10 0.31 -0.07 -0.05 -0.02 -0.01 0.10 0.22

Belgium 0.70 0.77 0.72 0.75 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.03

Denmark -0.11 -0.05 -0.09 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01

Finland 0.12 0.17 0.07 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04

France 0.71 0.58 -0.05 -0.18 0.06 0.07 0.26 0.32 190 2700 2890

Germany 0.81 1.32 0.41 0.67 -0.09 0.02 0.19 0.23

Greece -0.15 -0.18 -0.09 -0.11 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04

Ireland 0.08 0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Italy 0.46 0.55 0.21 0.30 -0.04 -0.04 0.12 0.06

Luxembourg 0.14 0.18 0.14 0.18 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01

Netherlands -0.10 -0.03 -0.07 0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03

Portugal 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Spain -0.17 -0.30 -0.14 -0.22 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03

Sweden -0.07 -0.10 -0.09 -0.14 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.01

United Kingdom -0.35 -0.51 -0.25 -0.34 -0.07 -0.06 -0.02 -0.12 150 150

EU15 1.52 1.79 -0.23 -0.07 0.69 0.68 190 2850 3040


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

Czech Republic 0.56 0.84 0.27 0.21 0.05 0.13 0.16 0.40

Estonia 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hungary -0.02 -0.10 -0.03 -0.09 -0.01 -0.03 0.02 0.04

Latvia 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00

Lithuania -0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01

Malta -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland 0.11 -0.02 0.00 0.06

Slovakia 0.11 0.09 -0.01 0.02

Slovenia 0.00 -0.05 -0.01 -0.05 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01

EU10 0.48 0.80 0.20 0.10 0.17 0.53

EU25 2.03 2.56 0.87 1.21 190 2850 3040








145

Glass industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

146

Glass industry

0.28

0.285

0.29

0.295

0.3

0.305

0.31

0.315

0.32

0.325

0.33

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.665

0.67

0.675

0.68

0.685

0.69

0.695

0.7

0.705

0.71

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.0107

0.0108

0.0109

0.011

0.0111

0.0112

0.0113

0.0114

0.0115

0.0116

0.0117

Product

ion


0.09

0.095

0.1

0.105

0.11

0.115

0.12

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.0026

0.00265

0.0027

0.00275

0.0028

0.00285

0.0029

0.00295

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

147

Glass industry

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

148

Glass industry

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


48

49

50

51

52

53

54

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

Product

ion


0.410.420.430.440.450.460.470.480.490.5

0.510.52

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

1.95

2

2.05

2.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

149

Glass industry

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

Product

ion


0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

2.15

2.2

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

2.45

2.5

2.55

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

150

Glass industry

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

151

Glass industry

1.07

1.075

1.08

1.085

1.09

1.095

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

152

Glass industry

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.035

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

153

Glass industry

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.2

0.21

0.22

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.0065

0.007

0.0075

0.008

0.0085

0.009

Product

ion


0.1550.16

0.1650.17

0.1750.18

0.1850.19

0.1950.2

0.2050.21

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

154

Glass industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


36

37

38

39

40

41

42

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product

ion


0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

155

Glass industry

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

156

Glass industry

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

157

Glass industry

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

158

Iron and steel

159

Iron and steel

Sector definition 172 The iron and steel sectors are defined with reference to the NACE subdivision 27.1. This covers the manufacture of basic iron and steel and ferro-alloys. It excludes the manufacture of tube and of other activities related to the first processing of iron or steel, namely drawing, rolling, forming and wire drawing. 173 It is our understanding that this definition of the sector corresponds to the activities covered by Eurofer, the European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries.

Data coverage 174 Coverage of production and employment data by Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) is reasonable though no data are reported for Cyprus, Estonia, Greece and Malta and very limited data (less than three years’ observations) for Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania and the Netherlands. Published Eurofer data do not provide a sufficiently long time series and/or coverage at the Member State level to remedy this. 175 Data on FDI are defined at too aggregate a level (they cover both iron and steel and nonferrous metals) and cannot, therefore, be relied upon as information pertinent to the manufacture of basic iron and steel and ferro-alloys. Accordingly, we do not set them out here.

Context 176 According to Eurofer, European crude steel production in 2003 was around 193 million metric tonnes (excludes Malta, Cyprus Estonia and Lithuania). Germany, accounting for 24 per cent of production, was the largest producer, followed by Italy, France and Spain (15, 11 and 9 per cent respectively). 177 The relative contributions of the largest Member States do not vary significantly if value of production or number of people employed are used as a criterion rather than volume. 178 In terms of production values, according to 2003 data from SBS, Germany accounted for 27 per cent, Italy for 18 per cent, France for 14 per cent and Spain for 11 per cent of EU-25 production. SBS data on the domestic sector’s share of number of people employed in the sector in the EU-25 in 2003 attributes a share of 23 per cent for Germany, 13 per cent for Italy, 11 per cent for France and 8 per cent for Spain. Interestingly, the Czech Republic accounted for 3 per cent of production value and 8 per cent in terms of number of people employed (SBS data for 2003). 179 According to Eurofer14, in 2005, European share of world crude steel production was 17 per cent. The largest

14 Eurofer, Steel Statistics. Available from http://www.eurofer.org/cgi-

bin/stats_index.pl

producer, China accounted for 31 per cent of production; the relevant figure for Japan and for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was 10 per cent each and that for America was 8 per cent. Compared to Eurofer data for the preceding year, 2004, these figures reveal a significant increase in China’s market share — in 2004, Chinese share of world crude steel production was 26 per cent — at the expense of most other geographical groupings including the EU-25 (who in 2004 had a share of 18 per cent).

Relocation indicators: EU-25 180 EU-25 iron and steel production grew by around 22 per cent in the period from 1999-2003 in terms of value according to SBS. In terms of volume, Eurofer’s figures also suggest limited growth in the sector over the period between 2001 and 2003 but a significant growth (5.2 per cent) in 2004; data for 2005, however, reports a contraction of 3.7 per cent; the decrease in production being slightly greater for the EU-10 than for the EU-15. Data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau15 covering a longer period, 1989-2004, for the EU-15 lend support to the picture of hardly any expansion in the sector. 181 This trend has meant that the EU-25 sector did not keep pace with the growth in the sector worldwide and Europe’s share of global production fell; it was noted that in volume terms, Europe’s share of the global market fell from 18 to 17 per cent from 2004 to 2005. This observation is not in line, however, with the indicator of the share of OECD consumption accounted for by EU-25 production; according to this indicator, the value of EU-25’s production grew faster than the increase in the consumption of iron and steel products by OECD countries. The different directions, in which these two observations point may be, conceivably, explained by the growth in China’s consumption of crude steel which would not be reflected in the data on OECD consumption. 182 At the EU-25 level, the number of people employed fell in the period 1999-2003 particularly in the years to 2001. Employment levels in 2002 and 2003 were at a level similar to those in 2001. 183 The fall in employment levels was greater in the EU-10 than in the EU-15. As a share of total employment, percentage of employment accounted for by the iron and steel sector in the EU-10 fell from 0.44 per cent in 1999 to 0.16 per cent in 2003. The analogous figures for the EU-15 were 0.20 and 0.18 per cent. 184 Trade data show a significant change from 2003 to 2004. In 2003, the EU-25 had a trade surplus of 2.2 billion with all partner countries and a trade deficit with developing countries of 1.0. In 2004, the trade deficit with developing countries increased to 5.7 and trade with all countries registered a deficit of 0.5 billion. We have

15 Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau. Available from

http://www.issb.co.uk/?p=keystatistics

Iron and steel

160

no data for 2005 to explore whether the noticeable jump from 2003 to 2004 marks a trend or not.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 185 The data collected on Germany, the largest producer amongst the EU-25, do not suggest that there has been significant relocation as production has not dropped and there is no deterioration in the balance of trade. Levels of production, in value or volume terms, remained broadly flat since 1999. As a share of domestic GDP, the sector accounted for 0.89 per cent in 1999 and in 2003 this increased to 1.04 per cent. Employment levels fell slightly in absolute numbers—from 84.5 thousand in 1999 to 81.5 thousand in 2003 — though the share of total employment accounted for by the sector remained unchanged at 0.23 per cent. Trade data show that Germany has kept a trade surplus since 1995 and there are no noticeable trends in the trade with other EU-15 Member States or with developing countries, though the input-output figures do reveal an increase in the proportion of imported intermediaries. Interestingly, the data do indicate that the small trade deficit which Germany held in the mid 1990s with the EU-10 was gradually eroded until 2003; 2004 data show a small deficit. 186 The data for Italy make for a different reading and it is not clear whether relocation has been a significant phenomenon. Italian production increased slowly over the period 1999 to 2003 in both value and in volume terms. Though slow, this growth outpaced that of Italian GDP and the sector’s share of GDP over that period rose from 0.9 to 1.2 per cent; however this is still below the 1.3 per cent level observed in 1995. Italy’s share of OECD consumption also fell slightly from 1995 to 1999; it subsequently rose and by 2003 it was at a level close to that observed in 1995. Employment over that period grew slightly from 40.8 thousand in 1999 to 46.2 thousand in 2003, an increase which implied that the sector’s share of total domestic employment increased from 0.19 per cent to 0.21 per cent between those two years. Whereas data on activity would not suggest any significant relocation, analysis of the trade data does raise a question mark. The data reveal a growing trade deficit, driven primarily by growing net imports from developing countries. In 2004, this set of countries overtook other EU-15 Member States as the group with whom Italy has a greater trade deficit. Input-output figures, taken either as a narrow or a wide measure, also show that the proportion of the value of imported intermediaries has grown in the sector between 1995 and 2000. 187 Data are similarly ambiguous in the case of France. French production has fluctuated around the 12 billion level in the period 1996-2003, with no discernible trend. These fluctuations are mirrored in the sector’s share of French GDP (around 0.8 per cent) and in its share of OECD consumption (around 2.7 per cent). The number of people employed did fall from 42 thousand in 1996 to


Germany 27%

Italy 18%

France 14%

Spain 11%

Other 30%



310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

duct

ion



0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Iron and steel

161

39 thousand in 2003; a relatively small drop (the sector’s share of domestic employment fell from 0.19 per cent in 1996 to 0.16 per cent in 2003). In terms of information gathered from trade data it is informative to note that the French trade balance has fluctuated in the period 1995-2004 but remained positive throughout and that the trade balance with EU-10 and with developing countries has not changed materially. 188 Data on Spain provide a reading that is similar to that set out for Italy. As is the case with its Italian counterpart, the Spanish iron and steel sector has, from 1995 to 2003, grown in production — in value and in volume terms — as well as in terms of number of people employed; the rate of growth has been greater than that in Italy. The growth has been broadly in line with that of Spanish GDP and the sector’s contribution to domestic GDP has remained fairly flat since 1996 (at around 1.2 per cent) although its share of OECD consumption has actually grown (from 1.5 per cent in 1996 to 2.3 per cent in 2004). The import penetration indictor has grown marginally and the self-sufficiency indicator fallen slightly over the period suggesting that the growth in domestic production has been accompanied by a growth in domestic consumption so that imports have grown and exports fallen. This reading is consistent with the data on Spanish trade. From 1995 to 2004, Spain’s trade deficit increased from 0.8 billion to 3.9 billion. The increase in the deficit was driven by growing net imports from other EU-15 Member States and, to a smaller but still significant extent, from growing net imports from developing countries. Taken together, the data paint a picture of a sector where production has grown but has not been sufficient to keep up with the growth in domestic consumption. This gap has been made with increasing imports, especially from EU-15 and, to a less extent, from developing countries.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 189 Amongst the remaining Member States, the United Kingdom has seen a fall in the value of production, from

8.7 billion in 1996 to 7.6 billion in 2004, as well as a small decline in the number of people employed, from 38 thousand to 28 thousand over that same period. There has been no significant change in the UK’s import penetration ratio or in its self-sufficiency index from 1996 to 2004. 190 Production in Belgium increased from 6.1 billion in 1995 to 7.2 billion in 2003. Employment levels fell slightly over this same period, from 24 thousand to 18 thousand, which is reflected in the fall in the sector’s share of domestic employment (from 0.62 per cent to 0.45 per cent). The indices on import penetration and self-sufficiency, together with trade balance data suggest that net imports remained broadly unchanged over the period. 191 Across the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, employment levels have fallen considerably since 1999, whilst production levels have grown. Trade figures for the latter two countries show growing trade deficits — with EU-15, not with developing countries — suggesting

that the growth in domestic production was not sufficient to meet the growth in domestic consumption. 192 Trade figures for the three Baltic republics show a significant growth in net imports from developing countries; there is scant data for these countries in terms of production or employment.

Triangulating the evidence

193 There is no strong evidence of relocation at the level of the EU-25 as a whole; production levels have grown, though at a slow rate, as has the share of OECD consumption and the share of GDP has remained around the 1 per cent mark. Trade figures do show a significant increase in net imports from developing countries in 2004, but it is not possible to extrapolate a trend of increasing trade deficits with developing countries from this single observation. 194 There is no clear evidence of relocation at the level of individual Member States. German production has remained flat but there are no observed surges in imports from the EU-10 or from developing countries as would have been expected had there been relocation. Production and employment levels, in Italy and Spain have grown. The growth in net imports from developing countries observed from these countries’ trade figures suggest that growth in consumption has outstripped domestic production, rather than reflecting a diversion of domestic activity abroad. 195 Data on the sector’s performance in the EU-10 do not suggest relocation either.

Iron and Steel

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 3.47 1.45 1.53 0.74 0.88 0.54 0.71 1.37 1.43 0.63 0.91 0.90 1.26 0.37 0.36

Belgium 7.15 2.10 2.61 1.27 1.82 2.05 1.45 2.64 1.95 1.33 1.82 1.75 2.32 0.51 0.45

Denmark 0.61 0.62 0.85 0.97

Finland 3.35 1.76 2.33 0.54 0.85 0.49 0.57 1.47 1.43 0.51 0.60 0.88 1.54 0.42 0.40

France 12.06 0.91 0.76 3.18 3.07 0.54 0.72 1.08 1.13 0.18 0.16

Germany 22.55 0.89 1.04 4.53 5.74 0.52 0.53 1.09 1.12 0.59 0.85 0.86 1.34 0.23 0.23

Greece

Ireland 0.06 0.04 0.01 1.06 0.13 0.03

Italy 15.02 0.90 1.15 2.59 3.82 0.50 0.47 0.77 0.78 0.70 1.06 0.88 1.35 0.19 0.21

Luxembourg 1.16 7.17 5.07 0.34 0.27 0.97 1.46 1.54 1.58 1.82 1.52

Netherlands 0.35 0.57 0.94 1.13 0.14

Portugal 0.57 0.39 0.42 0.11 0.15 0.85 0.90 0.37 0.41 0.04 0.03

Spain 9.05 1.09 1.16 1.60 2.30 0.48 0.52 0.81 0.75 0.16 0.16

Sweden 3.71 1.43 0.88 1.04 1.71 0.65 0.83 0.87 1.17 0.32

United Kingdom 7.61 0.62 0.48 2.16 1.94 0.38 0.56 1.02 1.12 0.13 0.10

EU15 81.98 0.94 1.00 17.06 20.88 0.20 0.19

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 2.81 3.48 3.50 0.49 0.71 0.45 0.52 1.00 0.99 0.87 0.56

Estonia

Hungary 0.81 1.31 1.10 0.15 0.21 0.59 0.63 0.80 0.75 1.68 2.14 2.35 2.85 0.22 0.20

Latvia 0.29

Lithuania 0.01 0.07 0.00 1.56 0.11 0.01

Malta

Poland 2.95 1.83 1.41 0.73 0.70 0.43 0.22

Slovakia 0.76 0.04 0.11

Slovenia 0.32 1.20 1.29 0.06 0.08 0.90 0.98 0.59 0.54 2.11 1.82 2.98 2.06 0.38 0.32

EU10 6.90 1.96 1.78 1.43 1.76 0.44 0.28

EU25 88.88 0.98 1.03 18.50 22.63 0.24 0.20

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Sweden and Poland



(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

162

Iron and Steel


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.78 1.07 0.59 0.72 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.08

Belgium 3.11 4.13 3.09 3.95 0.03 0.07 -0.08 -0.42

Denmark -0.51 -0.79 -0.47 -0.52 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.25

Finland 0.68 1.26 0.61 1.34 0.06 0.07 -0.11 -0.15

France 0.89 0.73 -0.03 -0.42 0.07 0.12 0.18 0.18

Germany 1.49 2.32 0.08 0.23 -0.14 -0.10 0.39 0.53

Greece -0.49 -1.04 -0.25 -0.50 -0.01 0.02 -0.16 -0.41

Ireland -0.28 -0.42 -0.25 -0.31 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.01

Italy -3.11 -5.66 -2.01 -2.80 -0.03 0.09 -1.16 -3.32

Luxembourg 0.47 0.40 0.32 0.11 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.11

Netherlands -0.10 0.87 0.02 1.65 -0.03 -0.03 -0.22 -0.86

Portugal -0.74 -1.11 -0.59 -0.66 -0.04 -0.05 -0.07 -0.32

Spain -1.50 -3.89 -1.27 -2.51 -0.03 -0.09 -0.38 -1.28

Sweden 1.16 1.77 0.51 0.52 0.06 0.19 0.24 0.44

United Kingdom 0.19 1.29 -0.03 0.52 -0.03 -0.15 0.00 0.28

EU15 1.72 -0.41 -0.05 0.24 -1.28 -5.39


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.05 -0.14 -0.02 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.07

Czech Republic 0.00 -0.09 0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.12 0.02 0.01

Estonia -0.05 -0.14 -0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.01 -0.05 -0.12

Hungary -0.15 -0.31 -0.08 -0.18 -0.06 -0.14 -0.01 0.01

Latvia 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.02 -0.03 -0.14

Lithuania -0.04 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 0.00 -0.05 -0.03 -0.10

Malta -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -0.42 -0.44 -0.19 0.09

Slovakia 1.15 0.38 0.59 0.11

Slovenia -0.17 -0.51 -0.09 -0.32 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.06

EU10 -0.22 -0.57 -0.20 -0.68 -0.12 -0.27

EU25 1.76 -0.55 -1.40 -5.65








163

Iron and steel

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

164

Iron and steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

165

Iron and steel

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.05

1.055

1.06

1.065

1.07

1.075

1.08

1.085

1.09

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1.8

1.85

1.9

1.95

2

2.05

2.1

2.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.295

0.3

0.305

0.31

0.315

0.32

0.325

0.33

0.335

Product

ion


0.2

0.205

0.21

0.215

0.22

0.225

0.23

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.07

0.072

0.074

0.076

0.078

0.08

0.082

0.084

0.086

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

166

Iron and steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

10.2

10.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

167

Iron and steel

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

168

Iron and steel

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.45

-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

169

Iron and steel

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

170

Iron and steel

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

171

Iron and steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.035

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


9.8

9.9

10

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

172

Iron and steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

173

Iron and steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

174

Iron and steel

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

175

Iron and steel

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

176

Knowledge Intensive Business Services

177

Knowledge Intensive Business

Services

Sector definition 196 The Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) sector is defined with reference to the NACE divisions 70—74. These divisions cover the activities listed in Table 1.

Table 1: Activities within NACE divisions 70—74

70 Real estate activities 70.1 Real estate activities with own property 70.2 Letting of own property 70.3 Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis 71 Renting of machinery and equipment without

operator and of personal and household goods 71.1 Renting of automobiles 71.2 Renting of other transport equipment 71.3 Renting of other machinery and equipment 71.4 Renting of personal and household goods n.e.c. 72 Computer and related activities 72.1 Hardware consultancy 72.2 Software consultancy and supply 72.3 Data processing 72.4 Database activities 72.5 Maintenance and repair of office, accounting and

computing machinery 72.6 Other computer related activities 73 Research and development 73.1 Research and experimental development on natural

sciences and engineering 73.2 Research and experimental development on social

sciences and humanities 74 Other business activities 74.1 Legal, accounting, book-keeping and auditing activities;

tax consultancy; market research and public opinion polling; business and management consultancy; holdings

74.2 Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy

74.3 Technical testing and analysis 74.4 Advertising 74.5 Labour recruitment and provision of personnel 74.6 Investigation and security activities 74.7 Industrial cleaning 74.8 Miscellaneous business activities n.e.c.

197 We note that subdivision 74.8 includes call centre activities and that the above definition of the sector differs from that considered by Eurostat’s 2006 publication “European businesses: facts and figures” in that the latter did not consider activities relating to real estate (NACE division 70). 198 The bulk of the activity in this sector, whether it is measured in terms of people employed or in terms of value of production, relates to the activities that fall under NACE 74 “Other business activities”; this grouping accounted, in 2003, according to data from Eurostat’s

Structural Business Statistics (SBS), for around 73 per cent of employment in the sector as a whole at the EU-25 level. Available data do not allow us to calculate the analogous share in terms of production value at the EU-25 level; however, it can be done at the level of individual Member States. Such an exercise reveals that for those Member States for which data are available, the share of these “Other business services” also account for the lion’s share of the sector as a whole, with shares ranging across Member States from around 40 to 60 per cent. 199 Examining the activities within the broader categories, and on the basis of SBS data for 2002, we find that legal, accounting and management services is the largest single set of activities, accounting for around a quarter of the people employed, followed by industrial cleaning and labour recruitment and provision of personnel, each of these accounting for around 15 per cent of employment. 200 We note — in the light of perhaps the most familiar manifestation of relocation — that there are no consistent data relating to employment or production levels associated with call-centres, an activity that falls within classification 74.80.

Data coverage 201 Eurostat’s SBS reports data on production and employment levels for KIBS sector at the national level, though no data for Cyprus, Greece and Malta are reported. 202 Relevant information for this sector is also provided by the input-output tables and by the ERM job loss dataset. Data on trade are not available; this implies that the indicators relating to self-sufficiency ratio, import penetration, share of OECD consumption and trade balances cannot be calculated. Data on FDI exist but their coverage, across Member States and over time, is limited. 203 This sector is one, however, on which some studies concerned with relocation related issues have been prepared and we will draw on those here.

Context 204 The KIBS sector, as identified above, accounted, in 2003 for 1,798 billion of production and employed around 17 million people. In terms of value of production the more significant Member States were the UK (24 per cent), France (19 per cent), Germany (18 per cent) and Italy (11 per cent); collectively these Members accounted for 62 per cent of total EU-25 value of production, a relatively low level of concentration. The shares and ranking are similar if employment rather than production is used; the UK remains the more significant Member State accounting for 23 per cent of sector employment across the EU-25, Germany and France switch positions — they now account for 20 and 16 per cent of employment, respectively — and Spain emerges as the fourth Member State with greater number of people employed in the sector (its share is 10 per cent).

Interpreting the available data


178

205 Given the data available — in particular, given the absence of data on trade —, we think there are weak grounds on which to attempt to assess the extent to which relocation may or may not be a relevant phenomena in this sector. This said, the following observations can be made: 206 First, at the EU-25 level, the sector grew both in terms of employment and in terms of production over the period 1999-2003, particularly since 2000 (see below for discussion about 1999 data). The growth was not particularly strong; in terms of production value, the EU-25 level rose from 1,769 billion in 2000 to 1,798 billion in 2003, whereas in terms of employment the growth between these two same years was from 15.4 million to 17.3 million. This growth in production and employment numbers was sufficient to increase the sector’s share of GDP (17.2 per cent in 2000, 18.1 per cent in 2003) and its share of employment (8.4 per cent in 2000, 9.2 per cent in 2003) in the EU-25. 207 Second, this trend of slow growth is reflected in all Member States for which data are available with the exception of Portugal and, more significantly Germany. 208 Third, SBS data on Germany reveal a dramatic drop in production from 1999 ( 640 billion) to 2000 ( 284billion). A closer look at the dataset shows that whilst the production values all of the sub-groups of activities within the KIBS sector fell from 1999 to 2000, the drop is most glaring for activities related to real estate: a fall from 307billion to 74 billion. We have found no explanation for such figures and a question remains about the accuracy of the data. We note too that it is, to a large extent, this drop that account for the fall in the production at the EU-25 level between these two years. 209 Fourth, data from input-output tables reveal virtually no change in the proportion of value accounted for by imported intermediaries across all Member States for which data exist. 210 Fifth, the ERM dataset on job losses due to relocation reveals that the transfer of jobs that has occurred has involved job losses in some EU-15 Member States in favour of new jobs in developing countries; there has been little shift towards EU-10. The dataset reports greater job losses in Germany. 211 Fifth, data on investment suggests that, for those Member States where data are published, investment in domestic capital has increased in the period 1995-2004. FDI data are relatively patchy and they do not allow for detailed or wide analyses though there does appear to be a pattern of growing FDI by EU-15 Member States in countries outside that group; data does not always allow to identify whether the source of that FDI are the EU-10 Member States or other, namely, developing countries.

Reviewing other evidence 212 There has been considerable concern with relocation related issues in some of the activities that fall within the KIBS sector as identified above. Whilst we have found


United Kingdom24%

France 19%

Germany 18%

Italy 11%

Other 28%

Total 2003 production: Euro 1,798 billion


14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

Pro

duct

ion



0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



179

no study that examines the exact same sector as that which interests us here, some insights can be garnered from studies working on related areas. 213 A study by the European Monitoring Centre on Change (EMCC) examining a subset of the activities within the KIBS sector defined above (real estate and renting and leasing activities, NACE code 70 and 71, as well as some of the activities within 72, 73 and 74 groupings are excluded) finds a growth rate across the EU-25 that is much faster than that of other sectors.16 The study identifies the growth in outsourcing as one of the drivers for this growth but notes that this driver is unable to fully explain the sector’s growth. The study notes that the share of employment accounted for by “white-collar and knowledge-intensive employees is growing across all EU countries”. This agrees with the previous observation that KIBS’s share of employment has grown, be it at the domestic level in each Member State and at the level of EU-25 as a whole. 214 A recent working paper17 for DG Enterprise tracing in detail the evolution of the same set of activities as those covered by KIBS as defined here, comes to a similarly upbeat conclusion. The paper reviews a number of studies relating to offshoring in the sector and finds that there is growing evidence of the limits to this; offshoring, it suggests on page 29, is limited to certain countries, certain services under certain conditions and notes that the often referred example of the ICT sector offshoring to India is “more an exception than a rule”. The author finds that macro data on trade backs this view. 215 We have read a number of other studies that touch upon issues that have some relation to relocation in this sector. However, because we have found these studies to provide no reliable data, or because they focus on a narrow set of activities within the sector, we do not think they can contribute towards in any significant way to an assessment of relocation in this sector in the EU and we do not review them here.

Triangulating the data 216 There are limited relevant data upon which to make an assessment of relocation in the KIBS sector. The data that we have gathered do not suggest that relocation has been a significant phenomenon in the KIBS sector as a whole.

16 European Monitoring Centre on Change (2005). “Knowledge-

intensive business services – what future?” Available from http://www.emcc.eurofound.eu.int/content/source/eu05011a.html

17 Rubalcaba, L (2005) “Business Services in the Global Economy: New Evidence from a European Perspective” DG Internal Market and Services, European Commission, (mimeo).


Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 31.84 10.14 14.03 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.06 5.49 7.46

Belgium 55.07 17.03 20.05 0.03 0.04 0.09 0.14 8.15 8.44

Denmark 35.63 16.25 18.88 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 8.78 10.18

Finland 19.35 12.74 13.46 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.08 6.24 7.58

France 328.95 17.92 20.75 10.10 10.86

Germany 318.02 31.81 14.70 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 9.60 9.08

Greece

Ireland 17.52 9.68 12.59 5.80 8.01

Italy 191.51 12.44 14.72 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 4.61 5.80

Luxembourg 3.66 13.69 16.03 14.52

Netherlands 107.66 22.60 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.09 13.58

Portugal 17.25 20.92 12.59 4.63 5.58

Spain 122.84 13.11 15.74 8.99 10.17

Sweden 65.69 25.34 24.37 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.13 9.61 10.18

United Kingdom 423.79 24.49 26.52 12.90 14.08

EU15 1738.76 21.32 18.38 9.38 9.96

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 15.44 14.73 19.24 5.26 6.17

Estonia 1.24 13.97 15.21 5.78 7.36

Hungary 9.90 5.58 13.46 0.03 0.02 0.11 0.10 3.22 7.52

Latvia 1.11 10.86 11.12 5.32 6.13

Lithuania 1.30 4.89 7.93 2.58 3.89

Malta 0.49 11.46 5.22

Poland 24.53 11.46 11.71 3.18 3.56

Slovakia 2.32 5.24 8.01 2.51 3.67

Slovenia 3.15 12.29 12.68 0.01 0.02 0.13 0.12 5.29 5.48

EU10 59.48 10.29 13.23 3.62 4.82

EU25 1798.23 20.89 18.14 8.45 9.18

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Malta and Poland


3. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Malta and Poland

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

180



ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria

Belgium 70 70

Denmark

Finland

France 568 568

Germany 160 2638 100 2898

Greece

Ireland 0 90 250 340

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands 160 160

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom 2118 2118

EU15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 320 90 5574 170 6154


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Malta

Poland

Slovakia

Slovenia

EU10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EU25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 320 90 5574 170 6154








181


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

182


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

183


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

184


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

185


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

186


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

187


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

188


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

189


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


7.257.3

7.357.4

7.457.5

7.557.6

7.657.7

7.757.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

Product

ion


10

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

11

11.2

11.4

11.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Product

ion


21

21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

190


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

191


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

192


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Product

ion


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

193


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Product

ion


23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

194


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


0

10

20

30

40

50

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-50

0

50

100

150

200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech Republic

195


02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-20000

2000400060008000

10000120001400016000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


05

101520253035

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-2000

200400600800

100012001400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


020000400006000080000

100000120000140000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

196


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-20-15-10-505

101520

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0500

100015002000250030003500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

20

40

60

80

100

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

197


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


050

100150200250300350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


02468

101214

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

198


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0500

100015002000250030003500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-20

0

20

40

60

80

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Slovakia

199


010000200003000040000500006000070000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


02000400060008000

100001200014000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003


Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

200

Leather, clothing and footwear

201


Sector definition 217 The manufacturing of leather, clothing and footwear is covered by two NACE divisions. Division 18 covers the manufacture of wearing apparel and the dressing and dyeing of fur. Division 19 covers the tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear.

Data coverage 218 The availability of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on production and employment is reasonably good for the sector. However, there are still some gaps. Again, there are no data for Greece. Data on Germany, Hungary, Latvia and Malta are only available for a limited period. COMEXT data on Poland and Slovakia are only available for one year. 219 Data are available on Input-output measures and ERM job losses. Data on FDI are available at the more aggregate level for textiles, clothing, leather and footwear and it is not possible to separate out textiles from these. Accordingly, we do not report FDI data.

Context 220 According to data for 2003 from SBS, production in the EU-25 stood at 116 billion. This accounted for 1.19 per cent of EU-25 GDP. In terms of employment, the sector employed 1.49 million employees in 2003. 221 Within the EU-25, production is fairly concentrated. The five largest Member States in terms of production accounted in 2003 for 86 per cent of EU-25 production. These Member States were Italy (45 per cent); France (13 per cent), Spain (11 per cent); Germany (11 per cent) and the UK (6 per cent).

Relocation indicators: EU-25 222 Output in the EU-25 increased marginally from 125.4 billion in 1999 to 128.4 billion in 2001 before declining sharply to 116.3 billion in 2003. Employment declined steadily from 1.88 million in 1999 to 1.49 million in 2003. 223 Output as a share of EU-25 GDP declined from 1.50 per cent in 1999 to 1.19 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 38.4 per cent to 52.0 per cent during the same period. 224 The EU-25 as a whole has a large trade deficit with the rest of the world. This deficit increased from 30 billion in 1999 to 45 billion in 2004. The deficit with developing countries was even larger, increasing from 35 billion to 48 billion during the same period.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 225 As noted earlier, Italy is the largest contributor to the sector. Output in Italy increased from 44.6 billion in 1995 to 56.2 billion in 2002 before dropping to 51.2 billion in 2003. Employment, on the other hand, declined

steadily and significantly from 483 thousand in 1995 to 384 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP also fell, from 5.18 percent to 3.93 per cent during the same period. Italy has a large trade surplus with the rest of the world and this surplus increased from 13 billion in 1995 to

15.1 billion in 2001 before declining to 11.8 billion in 2004. However, this overall surplus hides a growing trade deficit with developing countries; the deficit with developing countries increased from 0.91 billion in 1995 to 4.35 billion in 2004. 226 The trends displayed by France, the second largest producer, are similar. Production increased from 14.6 billion in 1996 to 16.2 billion in 2002 before declining to

15.2 billion in 2003. Employment declined from 179 thousand in 1996 to 119 thousand in 2003. As a share of French GDP, production fell from 1.18 per cent in 1996 to 0.94 per cent in 2003. Production as a share of OECD consumption increased from 4.7 per cent to 6.7 per cent during the period. France had a large trade deficit with the rest of the world, and this deficit increased from 4.8 billion in 1995 to 9.3 billion in 2004. The deficits with other EU-15 countries and with developing countries also increased at a similar rate. 227 Spain saw its output increase marginally from 10.4 billion in 1995 to 12.6 billion in 2003. Employment increased from 167 thousand in 1995 to 196 thousand in 1998 before declining steadily to 160 thousand by 2003. Output as a share of GDP fell from 2.28 per cent to 1.61 per cent during the same period. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.31 to 0.56 and the self-sufficiency ratio declined from 1.05 to 0.84. Spain’s overall trade balance changed from a surplus of 0.54 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 3.17 billion in 2004. The reason for this was the rapid increase in the deficit with developing countries. 228 Germany’s output declined steadily from 15.2 billion in 1999 to 12.2 billion in 2003. Employment declined similarly, from 114 thousand to 79 thousand during the same period. Output as a share of GDP dropped during the period. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.85 to 1.03, while the self-sufficiency ratio declined from 0.47 to 0.44. Germany’s trade deficit with the rest of the world declined from 16.7 billion in 1995 to 13.8 billion in 2004. On the other hand, the deficit with developing countries increased from 8.3 billion to 11.6 billion during the same period.


202

229 The United Kingdom saw its output fall from 9.5 billion in 1996 to 6.8 billion in 2003. Employment fell substantially from 198 thousand to 79 thousand during the same period. Output as a share of GDP and as a share OECD consumption declined. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.74 in 1996 to 0.94 in 2003, while the self-sufficiency ratio declined from 0.65 to 0.31 during the same period. The trade deficit with the rest of the world increased from 4 billion in 1995 to 15 billion in 2004. The deficit with developing countries increased similarly from 4.1 billion to 11.3 billion during the same period.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 230 Portugal saw its output remain roughly stable at around

6 billion, while employment in the sector declined from 234 thousand in 1996 to 189 thousand in 2003. Portugal has a large trade surplus, mainly with other EU-15 countries. However, this surplus has been steadily declining. 231 Belgium has also seen output vary around 2.5 billion, while employment declined from 19 thousand in 1995 to 9 thousand in 2003. Belgium’s trade surplus increased with other EU-15 countries, while its deficit with developing countries increased at the same level. 232 Hungary has seen production increase slightly from

0.7 in 1998 to 1.1 billion in 2003. Employment has declined from 98 thousand to 79 thousand during the same period. 233 Poland has seen a large drop in employment from 260 thousand in 1996 to 182 thousand in 2002. The Czech Republic has also seen employment decline from 90 thousand to 51 thousand during the same period. However, both these countries have seen output remain fairly steady. 234 Amongst other countries, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden have all seen significant drops in employment and production and a rise in imports from other countries.

Triangulating the evidence 235 There is overwhelming evidence of deindustrialisation in the sector characterised by falling employment and production both at the EU level and at the level of individual member states. There also appears to be strong evidence of relocation of activities from the EU in particular to developing nations. The data suggest that this is likely to be the case for the largest EU-25 producers namely Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK where production in the latest years of observation fell, from 2002 to 2003, whilst imports, particularly from developing countries have grown. It will be interesting to explore more recent data, once they become available, to test whether this marks the start of a trend.


Italy 46%

France 13%

Spain 11%

Germany 11%

Other 19%



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

Pro

duct

ion



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004



Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 0.80 0.84 0.35 0.52 0.36 1.19 1.69 0.47 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.94 1.02 0.48 0.23

Belgium 2.04 0.93 0.74 0.68 0.91 2.49 3.39 0.83 0.86 0.99 0.79 1.82 2.20 0.34 0.24

Denmark 0.56 0.68 0.30 0.34 0.25 1.93 3.88 0.75 0.65 0.17 0.47 0.79 1.18 0.24 0.11

Finland 0.69 0.67 0.48 0.25 0.31 0.82 0.95 0.54 0.46 0.12 0.17 0.68 0.83 0.39 0.31

France 15.00 1.12 0.95 4.70 6.71 0.70 0.81 0.68 0.62 0.68 0.49

Germany 12.25 0.76 0.57 4.68 5.48 0.86 1.03 0.47 0.45 0.56 0.77 1.00 1.38 0.32 0.22

Greece

Ireland 0.30 0.52 0.22 0.14 0.13 1.09 1.16 0.34 0.20 0.41 0.18

Italy 51.21 4.42 3.94 15.29 22.91 0.30 0.41 1.37 1.30 0.13 0.18 0.27 0.36 2.04 1.74

Luxembourg 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 1.49 1.51 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Netherlands 0.83 0.32 0.17 0.36 0.37 2.06 2.85 0.28 0.25 0.10 0.14 1.72 1.37 0.16 0.06

Portugal 6.01 5.80 4.39 2.03 2.69 0.61 0.72 2.27 2.05 4.35 3.69

Spain 12.60 2.31 1.61 4.11 5.64 0.33 0.57 0.97 0.85 1.31 0.93

Sweden 0.48 0.18 0.19 0.13 0.15 1.18 1.25 0.19 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.99 0.77 0.14 0.08

United Kingdom 6.80 0.82 0.43 3.44 3.04 0.76 0.95 0.52 0.32 0.56 0.26

EU15 109.57 1.49 1.18 36.67 49.01 0.87 0.65

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.07 0.61 0.03 0.86 0.22 0.61

Czech Republic 0.80 1.52 0.99 0.26 0.36 1.52 1.43 1.59 1.00 1.60 1.08

Estonia 0.20 3.03 2.44 0.05 0.09 6.00 5.96 5.72 4.92 2.68 2.61

Hungary 1.11 1.83 1.51 0.25 0.50 14.12 1.91 11.96 1.55 0.11 0.77 0.55 2.43 2.55 1.98

Latvia 0.12 1.22 1.15 0.03 0.05 15.27 10.26 9.99 7.20 1.50 1.43

Lithuania 0.38 2.05 2.33 0.06 0.17 -0.97 -2.33 -1.39 -4.01 2.53 3.55

Malta 0.20 4.12 4.59 0.05 0.06 1.73 1.07 2.54 1.87 2.19 2.57

Poland 3.07 1.67 1.47 0.81 0.95 1.65 1.33

Slovakia 0.24 1.74 0.82 0.10 0.11 2.09 1.32

Slovenia 0.57 2.63 2.31 0.16 0.26 1.20 0.94 1.10 0.75 0.50 1.15 1.11 1.65 2.85 2.28

EU10 6.75 1.78 1.50 1.81 3.02 1.88 1.55

EU25 116.33 1.50 1.19 38.48 52.03 1.03 0.79

Notes:




(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

204



ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -1.90 -2.19 -1.30 -1.50 -0.15 0.06 -0.47 -0.68

Belgium -0.46 -0.37 2.42 3.69 -0.18 -0.10 -2.47 -3.58

Denmark -0.37 -0.21 0.54 0.83 -0.26 -0.21 -0.83 -0.84

Finland -0.69 -0.83 -0.48 -0.71 -0.10 -0.08 -0.17 -0.05 0 0 100 0 100

France -7.11 -9.35 -3.18 -4.27 -0.23 -0.14 -4.80 -6.01 0 0 391 0 391

Germany -16.87 -13.87 -2.63 0.75 -2.38 -1.13 -10.11 -11.61 0 160 0 0 160

Greece 0.17 -0.51 0.22 -0.46 0.05 0.06 -0.17 -0.02

Ireland -0.90 -1.25 -0.68 -1.08 -0.01 -0.01 -0.21 -0.18

Italy 13.33 11.84 9.72 9.63 0.16 0.27 -2.04 -4.35 0 0 241 0 241

Luxembourg -0.25 -0.33 -0.18 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.04

Netherlands -3.04 -2.14 1.27 2.61 -0.33 -0.18 -3.42 -3.95

Portugal 3.71 2.72 3.29 2.40 0.00 0.01 -0.13 -0.16 109 0 100 0 209

Spain -0.41 -3.17 0.27 -0.22 0.04 0.11 -1.23 -3.33

Sweden -1.89 -2.04 -0.71 -0.63 -0.19 -0.20 -0.98 -1.18

United Kingdom -10.34 -15.92 -2.12 -2.73 -0.18 -0.21 -7.71 -11.35 0 0 1068 0 1068

EU15 -33.45 -45.66 -3.74 -1.76 -34.79 -47.34


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.16 -0.27 -0.10 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.07

Czech Republic 0.31 -0.16 0.50 0.20 -0.02 -0.08 -0.21 -0.29

Estonia 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.01 0.01 -0.02 -0.03

Hungary 0.76 0.30 0.87 0.58 0.00 0.02 -0.16 -0.31

Latvia 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.11 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01

Lithuania 0.36 0.42 0.34 0.45 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03

Malta 0.09 0.01 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.03

Poland 0.81 1.09 0.12 -0.37

Slovakia 0.45 0.55 0.00 -0.13

Slovenia 0.05 -0.19 0.11 -0.17 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.01 0 0 1120 0 1120

EU10 1.65 1.54 2.02 2.76 -0.52 -1.28

EU25 -30.09 -45.11 -35.31 -48.62








205


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

206


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

207


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

208


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

209


0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

210


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

211


1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

212


-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.0055

0.006

0.0065

0.007

0.0075

0.008

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.5

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.6

1.62

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

00.00050.0010.00150.0020.00250.0030.00350.0040.00450.005

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

213


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.2

0.21

0.22

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

214


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

215


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

216


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

217


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

218

Nonferrous metals

219

Nonferrous metals

Sector definition 236 The nonferrous metals sector is covered by the NACE subdivision 27.4. This covers the manufacturing of precious metals (e.g. gold, silver and platinum) and of other metals including aluminium, lead, zinc, tin, copper, chrome, nickel and manganese.

Data coverage 237 Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) dataset has a fair coverage of the production and employment levels in this sector for most the Member States. The exceptions are Cyprus, Estonia and Greece. Data for Germany are available only from 1999 onwards. 238 Trade data from COMEXT cover all Member States with the exception of Estonia, Poland and Slovakia. 239 FDI and domestic capital data, as well as input-output figures and information from the ERM database are not available for this sector; those datasets report information for the more aggregated sector defined as “metals”.

Context 240 According to the data from SBS the total output of the sector in the EU-25 in 2003 was 58.5 billion, representing 0.63 per cent of the European GDP and it equated to 27 per cent of the value of consumption of nonferrous metals in the OECD. The sector employed 205 thousand people in 2003. The EU-25 had a trade deficit with respect to nonferrous metals in 2004 equal to

11.0 billion, the bulk of which ( 7.9 billion) was accounted for by the deficit with developing countries. 241 Germany is the greatest contributor to the European sector; it accounted in 2003 for 32 per cent of production and for a similar share of employment. Italy, France and Spain, accounting for 14, 13 and 10 per cent of the production value in 2003, were the next largest contributors to the European sector.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 242 The production value in the EU-25 of nonferrous metals rose significantly from 1999 to 2000 but by 2003 it had fallen back gradually to close to its 1999 level. We have no data to suggest whether this declining trend since 1999 is likely to continue or whether it reflects a reversion to more natural levels of production. The fall in the value of production is reflected in the slight decrease in the share of EU-25 GDP accounted for by the sector; 0.68 per cent in 1999, 0.63 per cent in 2003. The fall in production has, however, been less marked than the fall in the consumption of nonferrous metals in the OECD. As a share of OECD consumption, the value of production of the EU-25 sector has risen over the period from 1999 to 2003, and reached 27 per cent in 2003. 243 EU-25’s trade deficit in respect of nonferrous metals has remained at similar levels in the period 1999-2004. Throughout, most of the trade deficit that EU-25 holds

with all outside countries is accounted for by the deficit it holds with developing countries. The relative contribution of developing countries towards the overall trade deficit has not, in broad terms, changed over that period.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 244 Data on German production and employment levels are available only for the period 1999-2003. Over this period as a whole, production has increased ( 16.0 billion in 1999, 18.6 in 2003) although from 2000 to 2003 levels actually fell from the peak of 19.9 billion registered in 2000; these variations are reflected in the fluctuating share of domestic GDP accounted for by the sector. As a share of OECD consumption, the sector’s production has grown marginally but steadily and in 2003 that share was 8.6 per cent. The number of people employed increased in the period 1999-2002 but fell by 6 per cent from 2002 to 2003. The value of imports as a share of production has not changed significantly over the period of observation. Germany has held an overall trade deficit throughout 1995-2004, largely driven by its deficit with developing countries. The size of this deficit has not followed any discernible increasing or decreasing trend. German trade with other EU-15 Member States has, over the period 1995-2004, gradually switched from a small surplus to, in 2004, a deficit of 0.8 billion. 245 Production and employment levels in the Italian nonferrous sector have grown, if slowly, in the period from 1995-2003. Production in 2003 stood at 8.3 billion and employment numbers at 22 thousand. The increase in the production value was lower than that for GDP as a whole and the sector’s share of the domestic economy fell slightly from 0.71 per cent to 0.64 per cent. As a share of OECD consumption, Italian production rose over 1999-2003 from 2.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. Italy held a trade deficit in nonferrous metals throughout 1995-2004. The deficit has increased over this period and, in 2004, it was

4.5 billion. This deficit is accounted for almost entirely, and almost in equal measure, by a trade deficit with other EU-15 Member States and by a deficit with developing countries. Whilst the former has remained at similar levels throughout, the deficit with developing countries has grown over the period and has driven the increase in Italy’s overall deficit. 246 The French sector has registered flat levels of production, around 7.5 billion in the period 1996-2003, which has been reflected in a decrease in the sector’s share of French GDP. The number of people employed fell from around 26 thousand in 1996 to 22 thousand in 2003; the sector’s contribution to total employment fell from 0.10 to 0.09 per cent. Trade data show that the French trade balance has fluctuated around the 1 billion deficit level. The bulk of this deficit ( 0.9 billion in 2004) has consistently been accounted for by trade with developing countries.

Nonferrous metals

220

247 As with Italy, Spain has seen some growth in the value of production and in the level of employment in this sector. Output has risen from 3.5 billion in 1995 to 5.6 billion in 2003. This growth has broadly kept pace with growth in domestic GDP and the sector’s share of the economy has remained at around 0.75 per cent. Employment, close to 14 thousand in 1995 rose to 15 thousand in 2003; the sector’s share of total employment has fallen between these two years from 0.11 to 0.09 per cent. Trade data shows a trend towards a growing deficit, though it remains a relatively small share of domestic production; in 2004, the trade deficit with all trading countries was 0.8 billion. In that same year, Spain had a trade deficit with developing countries of 0.4 billion. The increasing deficit in Spain’s overall balance has been driven by the reversal of the trade surplus that it held with other EU-15 Member States and with a growing trade deficit with developing countries.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 248 Of the remaining Member States, we note that the UK has seen a fall in production and employment levels. The sector’s share of GDP has fallen from 0.78 per cent in 1996 to 0.34 per cent in 2003 and employment in the sector, as a share of UK employment, has fallen from 0.13 per cent in 1996 to 0.07 per cent in 2003. The fall in production has not been accompanied by a fall in the self-sufficiency index, which has remained around the 0.87 mark, or by a growth in net imports. Trade data show that UK’s trade deficit has reduced from 0.9 billion in 1995to 0.7 billion in 2004; the proportion of this deficit accounted for by trade with developing countries has also fallen over this period and in 2004 there was virtually no such deficit.

Triangulating the evidence 249 The data do not provide strong evidence of relocation in the EU-25 as a whole or in any of the individual Member States. 250 Although the value of production has grown at a slow rate or remained flat in some of the larger producers (, namely Germany, Italy and France) trade data do not suggest that this has been driven by substitution away from domestic production and towards imports from developing countries or from elsewhere. 251 Imports from developing countries have increased for Spain, Belgium, Hungary and Slovenia. Domestic production in these countries has, however, remained fairly level and in the case of Spain and Slovenia it has increased. This suggests that the increased imports from developing countries are meeting growing domestic consumption rather than substituting for domestic production. 252 We had the chance to discuss relocation in the nonferrous metals sector with representatives of Eurometaux and of the European Aluminium Association (EAA). In the view of these stakeholders, there is no significant relocation in the sector as a whole and that,


Germany 32%

Italy 14%

France 13%

Spain 10%

Other 31%



195

200

205

210

215

220

225

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pro

duct

ion



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

27.5

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Nonferrous metals

221

within the various activities covered by the sector, relocation was identified as relevant only in the context of the manufacturing of primary aluminium. Here, it was put to us that the growing difficulty of producers to assure a long-term supply of energy at stable prices had led to investment in new capacity being shifted away from Europe and towards other countries. Data provided to us by the EAA show a fall in the EU-15’s share of global capacity for production of primary aluminium from 9.8 per cent in 1999 to 7.1 per cent in 2005 though in absolute terms EU-25 capacity did grow over this period, from 2,490 to 2,671 thousand tonnes. 253 The assessment of the stakeholders on the sector as a whole is consistent with the assessment that is drawn from the data that we have compiled.

Nonferrous metals

Production

Million tons

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 2.11 0.84 0.93 0.78 0.97 0.73 0.75 0.84 0.86 0.63 0.91 0.90 1.26 0.16 0.17

Belgium 3.99 1.66 1.45 1.81 1.84 0.68 0.79 0.93 0.87 1.33 1.82 1.75 2.32 0.23 0.23

Denmark 0.38 0.22 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.96 1.14 0.60 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.85 0.97 0.08 0.06

Finland 1.59 1.11 1.11 0.62 0.73 0.45 0.51 1.35 1.28 0.51 0.60 0.88 1.54 0.16 0.14

France 7.43 0.56 0.47 3.50 3.42 0.51 0.57 0.88 0.88 0.10 0.09

Germany 18.57 0.80 0.86 7.35 8.56 0.50 0.54 0.94 0.97 0.59 0.85 0.86 1.34 0.17 0.17

Greece

Ireland 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.09 0.12 0.72 0.63 0.52 0.58 0.07 0.06

Italy 8.26 0.59 0.63 3.06 3.81 0.51 0.48 0.67 0.68 0.70 1.06 0.88 1.35 0.11 0.10

Luxembourg 0.24 1.81 1.03 0.16 0.10 0.59 1.34 0.97 1.35 0.34 0.26

Netherlands 1.80 0.38 0.83 2.91 1.14 0.35 0.57 0.94 1.13 0.10 0.08

Portugal 0.30 0.24 0.22 0.13 0.14 0.85 0.94 0.42 0.43 0.06 0.05

Spain 5.58 0.80 0.71 2.13 2.57 0.30 0.34 0.98 0.94 0.09 0.09

Sweden 1.54 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.64 0.63 0.77 0.85 0.89 0.65 0.83 0.87 1.17 0.14 0.14

United Kingdom 5.38 0.49 0.34 3.10 2.48 0.42 0.57 0.90 0.86 0.10 0.07

EU15 55.62 0.67 0.63 23.60 25.64 0.12 0.11

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 0.47 0.52 0.59 0.13 0.22 1.07 0.92 0.57 0.52 0.10 0.09

Estonia

Hungary 0.78 1.06 0.36 0.78 0.82 1.68 2.14 2.35 2.85 0.14

Latvia 0.07 0.74 0.03 2.10 3.55 0.01 0.04

Lithuania 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.48 0.03 0.00

Malta 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.16 0.12 0.03

Poland 0.91 0.58 0.43 0.42 0.38 0.11 0.08

Slovakia 0.37 1.70 1.29 0.15 0.17 0.26 0.17

Slovenia 0.23 0.74 0.94 0.07 0.11 2.04 1.87 1.23 1.33 2.11 1.82 2.98 2.06 0.14 0.13

EU10 2.84 0.78 0.66 1.14 1.31 0.12 0.09

EU25 58.46 0.68 0.63 24.74 26.95 0.12 0.11

Notes:




(%)



Import Penetration Ratio



Narrow Measure

222

Nonferrous metals


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -0.33 -0.48 -0.19 -0.39 -0.09 -0.11 -0.08 -0.01

Belgium -0.28 -0.68 -0.10 0.17 0.00 0.02 -0.23 -0.80

Denmark -0.25 -0.28 -0.12 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02

Finland 0.35 0.40 0.41 0.61 0.01 0.03 -0.12 -0.21

France -1.05 -1.17 -0.12 -0.14 -0.11 -0.14 -0.63 -0.91

Germany -0.99 -1.54 0.38 -0.83 -0.22 -0.14 -1.12 -0.89

Greece 0.05 -0.07 0.24 0.25 0.01 0.01 -0.24 -0.42

Ireland -0.18 -0.18 -0.16 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Italy -3.31 -4.47 -1.73 -1.95 -0.16 -0.12 -1.25 -2.13

Luxembourg -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Netherlands -0.37 0.51 2.70 3.11 -0.02 0.03 -1.73 -1.20

Portugal -0.39 -0.40 -0.18 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.01

Spain -0.08 -0.83 0.11 -0.24 0.00 0.01 -0.22 -0.45

Sweden -0.28 -0.27 -0.04 0.03 -0.02 0.10 -0.03 -0.08

United Kingdom -0.72 -0.68 0.20 0.05 -0.05 0.01 -0.35 0.01

EU15 -9.21 -10.44 -0.65 -0.31 -6.03 -7.09


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01

Czech Republic -0.22 -0.51 -0.01 -0.19 -0.06 -0.14 -0.12 -0.16

Estonia 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hungary -0.08 -0.34 0.14 0.16 -0.03 -0.01 -0.20 -0.44

Latvia 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.01

Lithuania 0.00 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Malta -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland 0.45 0.24 0.19 0.00

Slovakia 0.06 0.11 0.01 -0.06

Slovenia 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.23 -0.01 -0.02 -0.07 -0.15

EU10 -0.12 -0.31 0.28 0.55 -0.39 -0.81

EU25 -8.95 -10.98 -6.42 -7.90








223

Nonferrous metals

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


5.7

5.8

5.9

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.7

1.72

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.8

1.82

1.84

1.86

1.88

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

224

Nonferrous metals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

225

Nonferrous metals

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Product

ion


0.1850.19

0.1950.2

0.2050.21

0.2150.22

0.2250.23

0.235

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

226

Nonferrous metals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

3.15

3.2

3.25

3.3

3.35

3.4

3.45

3.5

3.55

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

227

Nonferrous metals

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

0.56

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

228

Nonferrous metals

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

0.815

0.82

0.825

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.755

0.76

0.765

0.77

0.775

0.78

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


5.45

5.5

5.55

5.6

5.65

5.7

5.75

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

229

Nonferrous metals

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


19.5

20

20.5

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-5

-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

230

Nonferrous metals

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995 1996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

0.0018

0.002

Product

ion


0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0001

0.0002

0.0003

0.0004

0.0005

0.0006

0.0007

0.0008

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

231

Nonferrous metals

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.0012

0.00125

0.0013

0.00135

0.0014

0.00145

0.0015

0.00155

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.000539

0.0005395

0.00054

0.0005405

0.000541

0.0005415

0.000542

0.0005425

0.000543

0.0005435

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.014

-0.012

-0.01

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

232

Nonferrous metals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.320.330.340.350.360.370.380.390.40.410.420.43

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.45

-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

233

Nonferrous metals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

234

Nonferrous metals

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

235

Nonferrous metals

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

236

Paper and pulp

237

Paper and pulp

Sector definition 254 The paper and pulp industry is covered by the NACE division 21. It includes the manufacturing of pulp, paper, paper board, household paper, wallpaper and paper stationery. For the purposes of this study, we have not included NACE division 22 which includes publishing, printing of paper and recorded media.

Data coverage 255 The coverage of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on employment and production are reasonably good. Again, there are no data available on Greece. Data for Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg and Malta are only available for a limited number of years. COMEXT data are only available for one year for Poland and Slovakia. 256 Input-output and ERM data are available for the sector. FDI data are not available as they cover a wider range of activities including printing and publishing.

Context 257 According to figures released by the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI)18, European manufacturers account for over 29 per cent of world production of paper and board products. In 2004, these manufacturers produced 99 million tonnes of paper and paper board, of which graphic paper grades accounted for 51 per cent, packaging paper grades for 39 per cent and hygiene and specialty grades for the remaining 10 per cent. 258 The CEPI data also show that Germany, Finland, Sweden and France are the largest producers of paper within Europe and that Finland and Sweden are the largest pulp producers. 259 According to data from SBS the total output in 2003 of the paper and pulp industry in the EU-25 was 143.3 billion. For 2003, it employed over 702 thousand people and made up just over 1.47 per cent of EU-25 GDP and almost 40 per cent of OECD consumption. The EU-25 as a whole enjoyed a trade surplus 8 billion with all other countries, whereas the EU-10 had a trade deficit of 1.3 billion with other countries including the EU-15. 260 The largest producers within the paper and pulp sectors as a whole are Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom and Finland. Together, these countries account for over 74 per cent of total EU production.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 261 Output in the sector increased from 130.7 billion in 1999 to 152.6 billion in 2000 before declining slowly to

18 Confederation of European Paper Industries (2004) Available from

http://www.cepi.org/content/showfandf.asp?level0=553&level1=1948

143.2 billion in 2003. Employment, however, fell steadily from 741 thousand in 1999 to 703 thousand in 2003. 262 Output as share of GDP followed the same pattern as output in value terms, increasing first and then gradually declining. Output as share of OECD consumption, however, moved in the opposite direction, decreasing first and then increasing. The trend in this latter indicator is probably a reflection of a general slowdown in the consumption of paper and pulp goods in the OECD countries. 263 The EU-25 had an overall trade surplus of 3.15 billion in 1999 and this increased to 7.95 billion by 2004. With developing countries, the EU-25 had a trade surplus of

3.72 billion in 1999 and this increased to 6.54 billion in 2004.


30.2 billion in 2000 but subsequently fell reaching 29.6 billion in 2003. Employment declined steadily from 156 thousand in 1999 to 149 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased in line with output figures between 1999 and 2000 and then declined until 2003. Output as share of OECD consumption declined in the first period covered by the data, from 1999 to 2000, and subsequently rose. The import penetration ratio increased from 1.38 in 1999 to 1.46 in 2003, while the self-sufficiency ratio remained broadly stable. Germany’s overall trade surplus increased from 0.16 billion in 1995to 2.58 billion in 2004. 265 Output in France increased from 16.1 billion in 1996 to 20.3 in 2000 before falling to 18.0 billion in 2003. Employment has declined steadily from 95 thousand in 1996 to 88 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 1.30 per cent to 1.13 per cent during the same period whereas output as a share of OECD consumption remained steady at around 5 per cent. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.36 to 0.42 while the self-sufficiency ratio remained steady at around 0.9. France has a trade deficit with the rest of the world and this increased from 1.83 billion in 1995 to 2.57 in 2000 before declining to 1.85 in 2004. This deficit is almost entirely due to trade with other EU-15 countries. In 2004, France had a surplus of 0.42 billion with developing countries and 0.06 billion with EU-10 countries. 266 Output in Italy increased from 15.4 billion in 1995 to

17.9 billion in 2003. Employment figures remained broadly stable, at about 75 thousand employees. Output as a share of GDP declined from 1.79 per cent in 1995 to 1.37 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 4.38 per cent to 4.98 per cent during the same period. The import penetration ratio remained broadly stable while the self-sufficiency ratio increased from 0.88 in 1995 to 0.95 in 2003. Italy held an overall trade deficit over the period 1995-2004. This deficit fell from 2.0 billion in 1995 to 0.9 billion in

Paper and pulp

238

2004. This deficit is largely due to imports from other EU-15 countries. Italy had a trade deficit of 0.11 billion with developing countries in 1999 which changed to a surplus of 0.19 billion by 2004. 267 The UK saw its output increase from 15.2 billion in 1996 to 18.6 billion in 2000. From then until 2003, output fell reaching 15.17 billion in 2003. Employment declined by almost a third from 121 thousand in 1996 to 85 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 1.63 per cent in 1996 to 0.95 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption declined by a relatively smaller proportion, from 4.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent during the same period. The UK’s trade deficit with all other countries increased from 4.66 billion in 1995 to

5.58 billion in 2001 before declining to 4.91 billion in 2004. As in the case of Italy and France, this deficit is mainly due to imports from other EU-15 countries. 268 Finnish output increased steadily from 11.18 billion in 1996 to 15.47 billion in 2000 but subsequently fell, reaching 13.47 billion in 2003. Employment has declined steadily from 43 thousand in 1995 to 38 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 13 per cent in 1995 to 9.5 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption varied between 3.5 per cent and 3.9 per cent over the same period. Finland enjoyed a large trade surplus with the rest of the world throughout 1995-2004. Its overall trade surplus increased from 7.73 billion in 1995 to 8.56 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 269 Amongst the other Member States, Sweden’s production increased marginally from 11.56 billion in 1995 to 12.03 billion in 2003. Employment, on the other hand fell steadily from 45 thousand in 1995 to 40 thousand in 2003. The overall trade surplus increased from 6.43 billion in 1995 to 7.49 billion in 2004. 270 Spain’s production increased from 7.8 billion in 1995 to 10.8 billion in 2003. Employment rose from 46 thousand in 1995 to 54 thousand in 2003. Spain held a trade deficit with the rest of the world throughout 1995-2004 at a level that remained largely unchanged, around

1 billion. This deficit is largely driven by net imports from other EU-15 countries. Spain has a surplus with developing countries.

Triangulating the evidence271 At the European level, production has been stagnant or slowly declining and employment has declined steadily. On the other hand, the trade surplus with all countries, particularly with developing countries, has been increasing. The contribution of the pulp and paper industry to GDP has also been declining slowly. All of this suggests that consumption of paper is in slow decline. This has meant that some domestic production facilities have reduced their output and their employment levels. It is also possible that some labour productivity gains have been made. The data do not point towards relocation.


Germany 23%

France 14%

Italy 14%United Kingdom12%

Other 37%



680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

Pro

duct

ion



1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Paper and pulp

239

272 The performance of the sector in Germany and Finland and Sweden reflect the performance of the sector in Europe as a whole. Sluggish output growth along with declining employment and strong exports suggest productivity gains and a decline in domestic demand. France and the United Kingdom have also seen their output and employment decline, although there has been a rise in imports from other EU-15 countries. Although employment has fallen in many member states, the data are not consistent with relocation. When coupled with the continued strong export performance of the sector, the evidence points to productivity and efficiency gains and not relocation.

Paper and pulp

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 4.79 2.12 2.11 1.19 1.33 0.63 0.74 1.44 1.53 0.37 0.50 0.63 0.78 0.46 0.47

Belgium 4.33 1.46 1.58 0.98 1.20 1.05 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.90 1.36 1.39 0.37 0.36

Denmark 1.45 0.85 0.77 0.39 0.40 0.63 0.69 0.65 0.68 0.69 0.56 0.83 0.78 0.36 0.30

Finland 13.68 10.89 9.51 3.71 3.80 0.10 0.12 2.73 2.60 0.05 0.05 0.28 0.30 1.78 1.61

France 18.01 1.28 1.14 4.93 5.00 0.39 0.42 0.90 0.90 0.41 0.36

Germany 29.60 1.38 1.37 7.83 8.23 0.39 0.46 1.04 1.07 0.58 0.57 0.79 0.89 0.43 0.41

Greece

Ireland 0.82 0.78 0.59 0.20 0.23 0.62 0.61 0.53 0.58 0.29 0.27

Italy 17.93 1.28 1.38 4.06 4.98 0.31 0.29 0.92 0.95 0.53 0.61 0.71 0.83 0.36 0.34

Luxembourg 0.15 0.65 0.04 2.10 1.19 0.09

Netherlands 5.36 1.30 1.13 1.37 1.49 0.91 1.01 0.85 0.97 0.76 0.77 1.16 1.21 0.33 0.30

Portugal 2.27 1.66 1.65 0.53 0.63 0.47 0.51 1.15 1.20 0.30 0.24

Spain 10.81 1.43 1.38 2.33 3.00 0.31 0.32 0.88 0.91 0.35 0.31

Sweden 12.04 4.50 4.65 3.02 3.06 0.26 0.29 2.55 2.67 0.09 0.11 0.32 0.45 1.13 0.96

United Kingdom 15.18 1.22 0.95 4.74 4.22 0.36 0.41 0.79 0.77 0.37 0.31

EU15 136.24 1.57 1.47 35.26 37.87 0.42 0.38

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.06 0.55 0.02 0.64 0.43 0.26

Czech Republic 1.51 1.88 1.88 0.29 0.42 0.57 0.64 0.86 0.88 0.46 0.41

Estonia 0.10 0.96 1.18 0.01 0.03 0.90 0.81 0.56 0.65 0.23 0.29

Hungary 0.93 1.36 1.26 0.17 0.26 0.69 0.70 0.64 0.68 1.12 1.65 1.79 2.30 0.26 0.40

Latvia 0.06 0.53 0.62 0.01 0.02 0.86 0.84 0.32 0.35 0.14 0.16

Lithuania 0.10 0.52 0.58 0.01 0.03 0.81 0.79 0.36 0.45 0.24 0.15

Malta 0.02 0.45 0.00 0.80 0.22 0.22

Poland 2.95 1.41 0.75 0.24

Slovakia 0.75 2.71 2.59 0.15 0.21 0.50 0.41

Slovenia 0.58 2.46 2.34 0.14 0.16 0.66 0.71 1.12 1.12 1.55 1.29 2.06 1.93 0.71 0.66

EU10 7.06 1.64 1.57 1.53 1.96 0.31 0.31

EU25 143.30 1.57 1.47 36.79 39.83 0.41 0.37

Notes:




(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

240

Paper and pulp


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 1.30 1.66 0.65 0.63 0.20 0.26 0.28 0.45

Belgium -0.14 0.01 0.21 0.25 0.02 0.01 -0.07 -0.03

Denmark -0.76 -0.74 -0.81 -0.78 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.04

Finland 8.34 8.57 5.76 5.34 0.34 0.41 0.99 1.25

France -1.85 -1.86 -1.99 -2.37 0.06 0.06 0.31 0.43

Germany 1.10 2.59 -0.32 -0.03 0.66 0.82 0.77 1.39 160 160

Greece -0.70 -0.80 -0.61 -0.70 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02

Ireland -0.64 -0.55 -0.59 -0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

Italy -1.28 -0.91 -0.75 -0.68 0.00 -0.01 0.06 0.20

Luxembourg -0.03 0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01

Netherlands -0.88 -0.15 -0.67 -0.39 0.06 0.12 0.22 0.37

Portugal 0.25 0.26 0.17 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.11

Spain -1.18 -1.06 -1.19 -1.24 -0.02 -0.01 0.18 0.28

Sweden 6.52 7.50 4.87 5.16 0.23 0.40 0.76 1.21

United Kingdom -4.38 -4.91 -3.64 -4.26 0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.05 134 134

EU15 4.63 9.20 1.58 2.05 3.57 5.67 134 160 294


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.08 -0.09 -0.07 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

Czech Republic -0.17 -0.21 -0.21 -0.40 0.02 0.08 0.04 0.13

Estonia -0.04 -0.06 -0.04 -0.05 0.00 -0.02 0.01 0.01

Hungary -0.34 -0.48 -0.31 -0.49 -0.04 -0.06 0.03 0.08

Latvia -0.08 -0.11 -0.06 -0.10 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00

Lithuania -0.09 -0.13 -0.06 -0.08 -0.03 -0.05 0.00 0.00

Malta -0.05 -0.08 -0.05 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -0.46 -0.88 0.08 0.40

Slovakia 0.17 0.10 -0.01 0.07

Slovenia 0.05 0.11 -0.05 -0.06 0.01 -0.02 0.09 0.19

EU10 -0.74 -1.32 -0.84 -2.13 0.15 0.88

EU25 3.15 7.96 3.72 6.55 134 160 294








241

Paper and pulp

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


16.917

17.117.2

17.317.4

17.517.6

17.717.8

17.918

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

242

Paper and pulp

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.82

0.822

0.824

0.826

0.828

0.83

0.832

0.834

0.836

0.838

0.84

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

0.02

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.09

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

243

Paper and pulp

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

244

Paper and pulp

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Product

ion


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.87

0.875

0.88

0.885

0.89

0.895

0.9

0.905

0.91

0.915

0.92

0.925

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

245

Paper and pulp

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


146

148

150

152

154

156

158

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

2626.5

2727.5

2828.5

2929.5

3030.5

3131.5

Product

ion


1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

6.26.46.66.877.27.47.67.888.28.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

246

Paper and pulp

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.66

0.665

0.67

0.675

0.68

0.685

0.69

0.695

0.7

0.705

0.71

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Product

ion


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.575

0.58

0.585

0.59

0.595

0.6

0.605

0.61

0.615

0.62

0.625

0.63

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

247

Paper and pulp

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


73

73.5

74

74.5

75

75.5

76

76.5

77

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

248

Paper and pulp

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.76

0.765

0.77

0.775

0.78

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

0.81

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

249

Paper and pulp

0.205

0.21

0.215

0.22

0.225

0.23

0.235

0.24

0.245

0.25

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.76

0.765

0.77

0.775

0.78

0.785

0.79

0.795

0.8

0.805

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.01895

0.019

0.01905

0.0191

0.01915

0.0192

0.01925

0.0193

0.01935

0.0194

0.01945

Product

ion


0.430.4350.44

0.4450.45

0.4550.46

0.4650.47

0.4750.48

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.0041

0.0042

0.0043

0.0044

0.0045

0.0046

0.0047

0.0048

0.0049

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.09

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

250

Paper and pulp

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

251

Paper and pulp

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

0.71

0.72

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

252

Paper and pulp

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

253

Paper and pulp

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

254

Pharmaceuticals

255

Pharmaceuticals

Sector definition 273 Pharmaceuticals are covered by the NACE subdivision 24.4. This covers the manufacturing of basic pharmaceutical products and of pharmaceutical preparations (e.g. vaccines, homeopathic preparations, bandages and dressings).

Data coverage 274 The coverage of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on production and employment is relatively good across the EU-25 and across time although data for Greece, Estonia and Luxembourg are not available. Our EU-25 aggregates implicitly exclude the contribution of these three countries. 275 The data available on FDI and figures from input-output tables cover a wider set of activities than just pharmaceuticals (typically the manufacturing of chemicals) and so little weight can be placed on them when studying relocation in the sector.

Context 276 According to data from SBS, EU-25 pharmaceutical manufacturing plays a major part in the worldwide industry. The total production of the sector in 2003 was

162 billion and there were 569 thousand people employed. 277 The sector contributed to 1.67 per cent of EU-25 GDP and accounted for 48 per cent of the OECD consumption. 278 The EU-25 region had a trade surplus of 26 billions with the rest of the world in 2004, around half of this being accounted for by the trade surplus with developing countries. 279 France is the most significant producer within the EU-25. In 2003 it accounted for 26 per cent of production value. Germany, the second largest contributor to European production, accounted for 18 per cent, and Italy and the UK accounted for 14 and 13 per cent respectively. Together, the four largest Member States account for 71 per cent of European production. 280 In terms of employment numbers, Germany overtakes France as the most significant Member State; in 2003 there were 122 thousand people employed in the German sector compared to 102 thousand in France; as a share of total EU-25 employment in the sector these numbers translate to 21 and 18 per cent respectively.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 281 At the EU-25 level, the sector’s production value has increased from 124.2 billion in 1999 to 161.9 billion in 2003. The growth has been faster than that of GDP and the sector’s share of GDP increased over that period from 1.49 per cent to 1.67 per cent. EU-25’s share of the OECD market also rose from 44 per cent to 48 per cent over this period.

282 For the EU-25 as a whole, employment levels in the sector grew marginally, particularly since 2001; the sector employed 531 thousand people in 1999 and 569 thousand in 2003. This small increase grew the sector’s share of employment in the EU-25 over that period from 0.29 to 0.30 per cent. 283 EU-25’s trade surplus grew significantly over the period from 1999 ( 13.7 billion) to 2004 ( 25.7 billion). With respect to trade with developing countries alone, the EU-25 also registered a growing trade surplus over this same period; from 7.9 billion in 1999 to 13.4 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 284 The value of production and the number of people employed in the French sector increased in the period from 1996 to 2003. Production in 1996 was 24 billion and in 2003 this was 40 billion. Over the same period, the number of people employed rose from 92 thousand to 102 thousand. The sector increased its share of French GDP over that period and, after a dip from 1998 to 2000 it has recovered its share of the OECD market. Trade data shows that overall trade surplus grew particularly in the late 1990s and since then and until 2004 remained broadly flat; in 2004 the French trade surplus was 5.7 billion. The trade surplus with developing countries also grew steadily; it was 1.5 billion in 1995 and 3.2 billion in 2004. Both the import penetration ratio and the self-sufficiency index have grown in the period since 1995. 285 Data for Germany on production and employment cover the period 1999 to 2003. Over this short period of observations, the data reveal that the value of production of the German pharmaceutical sector grew — 21.5 billion in 1999, 27.9 billion in 2003 — as did the level of employment — 112 thousand in 1999, 122 thousand in 2003. The growth in production and in employment increased the sector’s share of domestic GDP (1.29 per cent in 2003), its share of the OECD market (8.32 per cent in 2003) and its share of domestic employment (0.34 per cent in 2003). Germany kept a trade surplus in terms of pharmaceuticals over the period 1995-2004 and there is no discernible trend in its evolution over this period. The trade surplus with developing countries increased steadily though it remains at relatively low levels; 0.9 billion in 1995, 2.1 billion in 2004. 286 The value of production of the Italian pharmaceutical sector rose steadily from 12.0 billion in 1995 to 21.5 billion in 2003. This growth was above that of Italian GDP and the sector’s share of domestic GDP increased from 1.39 per cent in 1995 to 1.65 per cent in 2003. Italy’s share of the OECD market also increased over that period; in 2003 it held a share of 6.39 per cent. Employment levels have also risen marginally. There were 66 thousand people employed in 1995 and 72 thousand in 2003. The sector’s share of total domestic employment remained unchanged at 0.32 per cent between these two years. The import penetration ratio

Pharmaceuticals

256

rose significantly, from 0.17 in 1995 to 0.38 in 2003; the self-sufficiency index remained broadly around 0.99. Italy’s trade balance has switched between being a surplus and being a deficit; for the latest two years of observation, 2003 and 2004, it registered a growing deficit (driven by net imports from other EU-15 Member States) but it cannot be said whether this is part of a trend or not. Italy kept a small, and broadly flat, trade surplus with developing countries throughout 1995-2004. 287 Data for the UK show a steady growth in production value and in employment levels in the period 1996-2002. Over that period production grew from 10.6 billion to

22.5 billion and employment from 65 thousand to 84 thousand. Both values fell slightly in 2003. The sector’s share of UK GDP increased over the period, accounting for 1.21 per cent in 2003, as did its share of the OECD market (5.74 per cent in 2003). The UK’s import penetration index rose steadily over the period, from 0.41 in 1996 to 0.79 in 2003. The UK’s trade surplus has increased over the period 1995-2004; in 2004 it stood at

5.2 billion. Much of this growth is due to the increase in the UK’s net exports to OECD countries other than those in the EU-25. UK’s trade with developing countries registered a slight growth in the trade surplus in the period to 2004; its level in 2004 was 1.5 billion.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 288 In all but two of the remaining Member States for which data exist, the value of production has increased. The two exceptions are Malta and Portugal where production remained flat. 289 Trends in employment levels do differ amongst the remaining Member States. In Austria Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Sweden the number of people employed has grown as has the share of domestic employment accounted for by the sector. In Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia the number of people employed in the sector fell. 290 We note that trade data show an increase in the trade deficit of some of the EU-10 Member States, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania, and that this was driven by growing deficits with EU-15. Slovenian overall trade surplus increased gradually. Trade data also show that most of the Member States have a trade surplus with developing countries and that this either remained flat or increased over the period of observation.

Triangulating the evidence 291 The available data do not suggest that relocation has been a significant phenomenon in any of the EU-25 Member States. 292 Value of production increased in most of the Member States and this has been accompanied by an increase in the sector’s share of domestic GDP and an increase in the share of the OECD market. Where the data report a decrease in employment, there is no evidence to suggest


France 26%

Germany 18%

Italy 14%

United Kingdom13%

Other 29%



500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

580

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Pro

duct

ion



1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Pharmaceuticals

257

that this has been driven by the replacement of domestic activity for foreign ones. 293 In some Member States, namely Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK, we observed that the import penetration ratios has risen as have the value of production, the sector’s share of GDP and its share of the OECD consumption, and that the trade balance has improved or remained unchanged. This can be interpreted as indicating that the growth in domestic production has not been sufficient to match a faster growing consumption, which does not equate to relocation.

Pharmaceuticals

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 2.34 0.89 1.03 0.63 0.70 0.86 1.20 0.83 1.20 0.23 0.25

Belgium 8.71 2.24 3.17 1.88 2.59 1.04 2.55 1.44 1.03 0.40 0.49

Denmark 4.81 2.31 2.55 1.33 1.43 0.38 0.59 1.79 1.97 0.55 0.63

Finland 0.88 0.61 0.61 0.26 0.26 0.56 0.72 0.63 0.58 0.24 0.23

France 40.17 2.23 2.53 10.76 11.96 0.21 0.28 1.11 1.17 0.41 0.41

Germany 27.95 1.07 1.29 7.60 8.32 0.45 0.73 1.35 1.17 0.31 0.34

Greece

Ireland 5.75 4.70 4.13 1.50 1.71 0.87 -0.36 3.93 -1.14 0.52 0.51

Italy 21.48 1.58 1.65 6.29 6.39 0.25 0.38 0.98 0.99 0.33 0.32

Luxembourg

Netherlands 7.68 1.49 1.61 1.96 2.28 0.63 1.00 1.00 1.17 0.17 0.19

Portugal 0.98 0.82 0.72 0.33 0.29 0.53 0.66 0.57 0.46 0.15 0.13

Spain 10.00 1.23 1.28 2.52 2.98 0.32 0.48 0.84 0.79 0.24 0.22

Sweden 6.75 2.37 2.61 1.99 1.88 0.40 0.48 1.75 1.69 0.49 0.51

United Kingdom 19.27 1.17 1.21 5.68 5.74 0.45 0.79 1.23 1.33 0.25 0.26

EU15 156.76 1.52 1.69 42.72 46.66 0.31 0.32

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 0.66 0.59 0.83 0.12 0.20 0.81 0.76 0.38 0.40 0.14 0.20

Estonia 0.02 0.19 0.00 1.04 0.15 0.04

Hungary 1.54 1.86 2.09 0.30 0.46 0.48 0.51 0.77 0.80 0.38 0.37

Latvia 0.04 0.44 0.40 0.01 0.01 1.17 1.20 0.26 0.24 0.17 0.18

Lithuania 0.03 0.19 0.01 1.14 0.12 0.09

Malta 0.03 0.87 0.71 0.01 0.01 0.85 0.86 0.65 0.47 0.27 0.26

Poland 1.66 0.63 0.79 0.35 0.46 0.17 0.17

Slovakia 0.19 0.94 0.64 0.06 0.06 0.21 0.16

Slovenia 1.02 2.55 4.09 0.18 0.30 0.51 0.56 1.50 1.85 0.60 0.63

EU10 5.18 0.91 1.18 1.04 1.54 0.20 0.21

EU25 161.94 1.49 1.67 43.76 48.20 0.29 0.30

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Lithuania, Malta and Poland

2. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Lithuania, Malta and Poland

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

258

Pharmaceuticals


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -0.36 0.33 -0.85 -0.77 0.11 0.25 0.25 0.53 115 115

Belgium 1.64 -0.87 0.38 -6.49 0.31 0.56 0.88 1.70

Denmark 1.66 2.27 0.64 0.59 0.04 0.06 0.76 1.16 300 300

Finland -0.44 -0.78 -0.43 -0.99 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.17

France 2.96 5.67 0.89 0.49 0.35 0.74 2.00 3.22 30 30

Germany 5.63 5.62 -0.01 -0.54 0.57 0.87 1.08 2.10

Greece -0.89 -1.49 -0.68 -1.15 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.03

Ireland 3.17 12.72 1.62 10.30 0.02 0.07 0.17 0.29 560 560

Italy -0.30 -0.84 -0.47 -1.79 0.07 0.17 0.27 0.34

Luxembourg -0.14 -0.20 -0.13 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Netherlands 0.02 0.58 -0.19 0.66 0.21 0.40 0.49 0.76

Portugal -0.70 -1.27 -0.59 -1.16 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05

Spain -1.41 -2.80 -1.07 -2.32 0.03 0.04 0.13 0.19

Sweden 2.42 3.39 1.31 1.02 0.06 0.06 0.20 0.24

United Kingdom 3.04 5.18 0.20 0.91 0.21 0.23 1.23 1.48 124 124

EU15 15.67 28.97 2.02 3.54 7.53 12.26 30 115 684 300 1129


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05

Czech Republic -0.54 -1.13 -0.40 -0.97 -0.04 -0.03 0.03 0.05

Estonia -0.05 -0.11 -0.05 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00

Hungary -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 -0.60 0.05 0.11 0.14 0.37

Latvia -0.08 -0.13 -0.06 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02

Lithuania -0.14 -0.24 -0.11 -0.17 -0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.01

Malta -0.02 -0.04 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland -1.97 -1.55 -0.18 0.08

Slovakia -0.52 -0.36 -0.10 0.02

Slovenia 0.17 0.66 -0.10 -0.19 0.14 0.27 0.15 0.51

EU10 -1.08 -3.84 -1.11 -4.12 0.36 1.10

EU25 13.69 25.71 7.89 13.36 30 115 684 300 1129








259

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

260

Pharmaceuticals

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

261

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

0.004

0.0045

0.005

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

262

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Product

ion


0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

263

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

264

Pharmaceuticals

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

1.95

2

2.05

2.1

2.15

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

265

Pharmaceuticals

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

0.02

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

266

Pharmaceuticals

0.11

0.112

0.114

0.116

0.118

0.12

0.122

0.124

0.126

0.128

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Product

ion


0.170.1750.18

0.1850.19

0.1950.2

0.2050.21

0.2150.22

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.00620.00640.00660.00680.0070.00720.00740.00760.00780.0080.0082

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

267

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.35

0.355

0.36

0.365

0.37

0.375

0.38

0.385

0.39

0.395

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

268

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

269

Pharmaceuticals

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

270

Pharmaceuticals

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


1.161.181.2

1.221.241.261.281.3

1.321.341.361.38

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

271

Pharmaceuticals

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

272

Plastics

273

Plastics

Sector definition 294 The plastics sector is covered by the NACE subdivision 25.2. It includes the manufacture of plastic products such as plastic plates, sheets, tubes, profiles, packing goods and building products. 295 As defined here, the plastics sector does not cover the manufacturing of plastics in its primary form. That is an activity covered by the chemicals sector which is examined separately in this study.

Data coverage 296 The coverage of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on employment and production are fairly good. Data are not available for Greece. Data for Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Malta are only available for limited years. 297 COMEXT data are only available for one year for Poland and Slovakia and for a limited number of years for the rest of the EU-10. 298 Data on FDI and Input-output tables are not available for this sector as they cover a broader range of products, namely plastics and rubber.

Context 299 According to data from SBS, the total output in 2003 of the plastics sector in the EU-25 was 164.7 billion. In that same year it employed just over 1.24 million people. 300 In 2003, the output of the plastics sector contributed to 1.69 per cent of EU-25 GDP and 40 per cent of total OECD consumption in the sector. The EU-25 as a whole had a trade surplus of 11.0 billion with all other countries in 2004. 301 Germany, Italy, France, United Kingdom and Spain are the largest producers in the sector. Together they account for 81 per cent of total EU-25 production.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 302 Output in the EU-25 has increased from 143.5 billion in 1999 to 164.7 billion in 2003, although the rate of output growth has been steadily declining. Employment followed a similar path, increasing from 1,208 thousand to 1,244 thousand over the period, though there was a small dip between 2002 and 2003. 303 Output as a share of GDP increased marginally from 1.71 per cent in 1999 to 1.74 per cent in 2000 before declining to 1.68 per cent by 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption, on the other hand, dropped briefly from 37 per cent in 1999 to 34 per cent in 2000 before rising to 40 per cent by 2003. 304 The EU-25 as a whole has a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The surplus increased from 4.7 billion in 1999 to 10.9 in 2004. The EU also held a surplus with developing countries and this surplus increased from 3.9 billion in 1999 to 7.8 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 305 German output remained fairly stable at around 40 billion in the period 1999-2003. Employment fell marginally from 305 thousand to 299 thousand over that same period. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 2.03 per cent in 1999 to 1.91 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of the level of consumption in the OECD fell from 10.6 per cent to 10.0 per cent between these two years. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.42 in 1999 to 0.57 in 2003. Interestingly, the self-sufficiency ratio also rose from 1.27 to 1.45 during the same period. As production was stagnant during the period, it is obvious that domestic consumption declined. Not surprisingly, Germany’s trade surplus with the rest of the world increased steadily during the period from 6.07 billion in 1995 to 15.26 billion in 2004. 306 Italy’s output rose steadily from 17.6 billion in 1995 to 27.3 billion in 2003. Over that same period, employment increased from 126 thousand to 147 thousand. Output as a share of GDP varied slightly around the 2 per cent level. Output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 5.76 per cent in 1995 to 6.63 per cent in 2003. Import penetration and self-sufficiency ratios remained roughly constant throughout. Italian trade surpluses with EU-10 and developing countries increased from 1995 to 2004. Italy maintained a deficit with other EU-15 countries and this increased from 0.6 billion in 1995 to 1.4 billion in 2004. 307 French output increased from 16.3 billion in 1996 to

25.6 billion in 2003. Employment also grew from 138 thousand to 173 thousand during the same period. Over this same period, output as a share of GDP increased from 1.3 per cent to 1.6 per cent and output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 5.25 per cent to 6.23 per cent. The import penetration ratio declined marginally from 0.51 to 0.45, while the self-sufficiency ratio remained broadly stable. France held an overall trade deficit with the rest of the world throughout, a position driven entirely by an increasing deficit with other EU-15 countries. In spite of the overall deficit, France maintains a steady surplus with EU-10 and developing countries. 308 The UK saw its output rise steadily from 17.2 billion in 1996 to 25.3 billion in 2000 and then decline to 22.6 billion by 2003. Employment levels followed a similar pattern, increasing from 196 thousand in 1996 to 209 thousand in 1998 before declining to 182 thousand by 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 1.84 per cent in 1996 to 1.42 per cent in 2003. The UK kept a trade deficit with the rest of the world throughout the 1995-2004 period and this grew from 1.9 billion in 1995 to 2.9 billion in 2004. This deficit is largely due to the deficit with other EU-15 countries, which increased from

1.7 billion in 1995 to 2.7 billion in 2004. 309 Production in Spain grew from 6.6 billion in 1995 to

12.2 billion in 2003. Employment increased from 63 thousand in 1995 to 88 thousand in 2003. Output as a

Plastics

274

share of GDP rose from 1.46 per cent in 1995 to 1.57 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption also increased, from 2.18 per cent in 1995 to 2.98 per cent in 2003. Spain held a trade deficit with the rest of the world from 1995 to 2004; its level increased from 0.83 billion in 1995 to 1.69 billion in 2004. The Spanish deficit with other EU-15 Member States alone is greater, and, with respect to that set of trade partners, the Spanish deficit increased from 1.06 billion in 1995 to 2.26 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 310 Amongst other countries, Belgium and Netherlands saw small rises in output. Employment in both countries remained constant, while external trade surpluses increased. 311 Austria’s output and employment levels grew overall in the period 1995-2003 though there was a dip in 2003. However, the trade deficit with other EU-15 countries has also increased between 1995 and 2004 though not that with developing countries which improved over the period. The picture in Denmark is similar to that in Austria. Output and employment increased, while imports from other EU-15 countries have caused an increasing trade deficit; Denmark’s trade balance with developing countries has remained positive and relatively small throughout.

Triangulating the evidence 312 Taken together, the data suggest that there has not been a significant process of relocation in the European plastics industry. Over the long-term, production and employment have increased. External trade balances have improved steadily showing that the EU-25 has strengthened its place in the world market. The data for the largest producers suggest a good performance, with the exception of the Germany and the United Kingdom. Most of the other countries have also seen increases in output or employment. 313 Countries that have seen a drop in employment have been more affected by imports from other EU-15 countries than by imports from developing countries; trade balances with this set of trade partners remained unchanged in most cases. Intra-EU trade seems to have increased significantly 314 To conclude, the available evidence does not suggest that significant shifts of manufacturing activities have occurred to countries outside the EU-25.


Germany 27%

Italy 17%

France 16%

United Kingdom14%

Other 26%



1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

1230

1240

1250

1260

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

Pro

duct

ion



1.65

1.66

1.67

1.68

1.69

1.7

1.71

1.72

1.73

1.74

1.75

1.76

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Plastics

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 3.40 1.45 1.50 0.75 0.83 0.89 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.63 0.63

Belgium 5.59 2.39 2.03 1.48 1.36 7.49 -13.91 5.82 -8.81 0.60 0.58

Denmark 2.94 1.43 1.56 0.60 0.71 0.67 0.67 0.86 0.88 0.75 0.77

Finland 1.90 1.36 1.32 0.43 0.46 0.58 0.64 0.91 0.97 0.58 0.55

France 25.67 1.53 1.62 5.41 6.23 0.48 0.46 0.99 0.96 0.69 0.70

Germany 41.36 2.04 1.91 10.61 10.04 0.43 0.58 1.27 1.46 0.84 0.83

Greece

Ireland 1.12 1.16 0.81 0.27 0.27 0.76 0.80 0.64 0.59 0.57 0.48

Italy 27.33 1.95 2.10 5.68 6.63 0.37 0.36 1.01 1.02 0.68 0.67

Luxembourg 0.63 2.00 2.75 0.10 0.14 1.50 1.20 1.47 1.46 0.74 0.74

Netherlands 5.36 1.26 1.12 1.22 1.30 6.97 29.78 5.03 21.85 0.38 0.38

Portugal 1.60 1.07 1.17 0.32 0.39 0.61 0.64 0.65 0.71 0.36 0.37

Spain 12.28 1.52 1.57 2.28 2.98 0.41 0.45 0.90 0.89 0.51 0.51

Sweden 2.55 1.01 0.99 0.62 0.57 0.92 1.05 1.02 1.06 0.44 0.42

United Kingdom 22.68 1.63 1.42 5.80 5.51 0.36 0.40 0.93 0.90 0.76 0.66

EU15 154.40 1.71 1.66 35.56 37.48 0.68 0.66

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.07 0.60 0.02 0.65 0.41 0.38

Czech Republic 2.39 2.17 2.97 0.31 0.58 0.80 0.74 0.66 0.66 0.78 1.01

Estonia 0.18 2.16 0.04 0.74 0.54 0.56

Hungary 1.61 1.72 2.19 0.20 0.39 0.87 0.79 0.65 0.73 0.61 0.79

Latvia 0.10 0.54 0.99 0.01 0.02 0.82 0.76 0.31 0.39 0.17 0.31

Lithuania 0.36 2.18 0.09 0.63 0.63 0.51

Malta 0.04 0.89 0.99 0.01 0.01 0.91 0.91 0.32 0.36 0.62 0.59

Poland 4.36 1.96 2.08 0.80 0.98 0.53 0.56

Slovakia 0.58 1.24 1.99 0.06 0.14 0.34 0.55

Slovenia 0.68 2.24 2.72 0.12 0.16 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.75 0.90 1.01

EU10 10.35 1.85 2.30 1.59 2.51 0.55 0.67

EU25 164.74 1.72 1.69 37.15 39.99 0.66 0.66

Notes:



(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

276

Plastics


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria -0.16 -0.27 -0.52 -0.86 0.19 0.20 0.14 0.30

Belgium 4.72 7.18 4.30 5.85 0.36 0.67 0.53 0.95 135 135

Denmark -0.38 -0.52 -0.44 -0.65 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 100 100

Finland -0.16 -0.05 -0.35 -0.42 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.25 70 70

France -0.31 -0.68 -1.12 -2.31 0.20 0.39 0.43 0.70

Germany 8.71 15.27 4.11 6.74 1.51 2.74 1.73 3.55

Greece -0.60 -0.74 -0.64 -0.84 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03

Ireland -0.58 -0.80 -0.53 -0.69 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 180 180

Italy 0.21 0.57 -0.97 -1.40 0.28 0.52 0.52 0.87 182 182

Luxembourg 0.12 0.15 0.07 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03

Netherlands 3.77 6.11 3.66 5.07 0.18 0.41 0.28 0.65 132 132

Portugal -0.66 -0.62 -0.68 -0.69 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03

Spain -0.98 -1.70 -1.25 -2.26 0.02 0.09 0.23 0.29

Sweden 0.04 0.19 -0.33 -0.41 0.09 0.13 267 150 417

United Kingdom -1.79 -2.96 -1.61 -2.70 0.18 0.20 -0.13 -0.35

EU15 7.88 15.99 3.07 5.39 3.87 7.31 282 534 400 1216


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.08 -0.12 -0.06 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02

Czech Republic -0.63 -1.22 -0.60 -1.39 0.02 0.12 0.01 0.08

Estonia -0.09 -0.16 -0.08 -0.13 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 0.00

Hungary -0.42 -0.53 -0.51 -0.92 0.07 0.13 0.09 0.27

Latvia -0.08 -0.17 -0.05 -0.09 -0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00

Lithuania -0.12 -0.25 -0.08 -0.19 -0.02 -0.05 -0.01 0.02

Malta -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

Poland -2.42 -2.49 -0.05 0.18

Slovakia -0.45 -0.41 -0.04 0.04

Slovenia -0.19 -0.34 -0.20 -0.46 -0.01 0.01

EU10 -1.53 -5.41 -1.43 -5.77 0.05 0.55

EU25 4.71 10.95 3.92 7.87 282 534 400 0 1216








277

Plastics

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

278

Plastics

0.385

0.39

0.395

0.4

0.405

0.41

0.415

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.63

0.635

0.64

0.645

0.65

0.655

0.66

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.2

1.21

1.22

1.23

1.24

1.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.056

0.058

0.06

0.062

0.064

0.066

0.068

0.07

0.072

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.644

0.646

0.648

0.65

0.652

0.654

0.656

0.658

0.66

0.662

0.664

0.666

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

279

Plastics

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

280

Plastics

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

281

Plastics

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


290

295

300

305

310

315

320

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

40

40.2

40.4

40.6

40.8

41

41.2

41.4

41.6

Product

ion


1.841.861.881.9

1.921.941.961.98

22.022.042.06

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

282

Plastics

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

283

Plastics

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


1.85

1.9

1.95

2

2.05

2.1

2.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

284

Plastics

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

285

Plastics

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.898

0.9

0.902

0.904

0.906

0.908

0.91

0.912

0.914

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0.780.8

0.820.84

0.860.88

0.90.92

0.940.96

0.981

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Product

ion


0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.007

0.0075

0.008

0.0085

0.009

0.0095

0.01

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.09

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

286

Plastics

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

287

Plastics

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.7

0.71

0.72

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

288

Plastics

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.36

0.38

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Product

ion


1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

289

Plastics

0.89

0.895

0.9

0.905

0.91

0.915

0.92

0.925

0.93

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

290

Railway equipment

291

Railway equipment

Sector definition 315 Railway equipment manufacturing is covered by the NACE subdivision 35.2. This includes the activities involving the manufacture of railway and tramway locomotives and rolling stock.

Data coverage 316 Data from Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) are relatively sparse for the rail equipment sector. Production and employment data is not available at all for Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta. As a result, all our EU-25 level aggregates implicitly exclude these countries. 317 There are no data for FDI or for input-output tables relating to railway equipment specifically.

Context 318 According to figures released by the Association of European Railway Industries (UNIFE)19, the global output in 2003 of the railway equipment sector was estimated to be around 50 billion, of which European manufacturers accounted for over 70 per cent. The same source suggests that direct employment in the EU-25 was over 130 thousand. 319 UNIFE data note that Europe is the main market for railway equipment products accounting for 54 per cent of global demand. 320 Data from SBS report that total output in 2003 of the rail equipment industry in the EU-25 was 19.4 billion. In 2003, the sector employed over 132 thousand people and made up just over 0.21 per cent of EU-25 GDP and its value represented almost 35 per cent of OECD consumption. In 2004, the EU-25 as a whole enjoyed a trade surplus 1.36 billion with the rest of the world while the trade surplus with developing countries was

0.65 billion. 321 The largest producers in the sector are Germany, France, United Kingdom, Austria and Spain. Together, these Member States accounted for over 84 per cent of total EU production in 2003.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 322 Output in the EU-25 increased from 13.5 billion in 1999 to 19.4 billion in 2003. Employment grew from 128 thousand to 132 thousand over the same period. 323 From 1999 to 2003, EU-25 output as a share of GDP increased from 0.17 per cent, while output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 25.5 per cent to 34.3 per cent.

19 UNIFE (2005) “The European Rail Supply Industry in the 21st

Century” Available from http://www.unife.org/unifepubs.htm

324 The EU-25 had an overall trade surplus of 0.85 billion in 1999 and this increased to 1.36 billion by 2004. In relation to trade with developing countries, the EU-25’s surplus remained largely stable throughout 1995-2004 at around 0.65 billion.


5.4 billion in 2003. Employment fell from 26 thousand in 1999 to 23 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased from 0.21 per cent in 1999 to 0.25 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 8.2 per cent to 9.6 per cent during the same period. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.17 in 1999 to 0.28 in 2003, while the self-sufficiency ratio increased from 1.06 to 1.43 during the same period. Data on Germany external trade show that its overall trade surplus increased from 0.58 billion in 1995 to 1.83 billion in 2004. Germany’s trade deficit with EU-10 countries increased from 0.06 billion to 0.18 billion during the same period. 326 Output in France increased from 1.98 billion in 1996 to 3.06 in 2003 whilst employment fell from 15 thousand in 1996 to 14 thousand in 2000 before increasing to 14.7 thousand by 2003. Output as a share of French GDP increased from 0.16 per cent in 1996 to 0.19 per cent in 2003 whereas output as a share of OECD consumption declined from 5.0 per cent in 1996 to 3.4 per cent in 2000 before increasing to 5.4 per cent in 2003. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.09 to 0.16 while the self-sufficiency ratio remained steady at around 1.2. France held a trade surplus with the rest of the world over the period 1995-2004 and this remained steady at around

0.3 billion. 327 Output in the UK rose from 1.33 billion in 1996 to

3.04 billion in 2003. Employment declined from 13.4 thousand in 1996 to 9.7 thousand in 1999 before increasing rapidly to 14.2 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased from 0.14 per cent in 1996 to 0.19 per cent in 2003 and as a share of OECD consumption it increased from 3.39 per cent to 5.37 per cent during this same period. The import penetration ratio rose from 0.08 in 1996 to 0.28 in 1999 before declining to 0.14 in 2003 while the self-sufficiency ratio decreased from 1.04 in 1996 to 0.93 in 2003. The UK had a trade deficit with the rest of the world throughout the period 1995-2004; this grew from 0.13 billion in 1995 to 0.35 billion in 2004. This deficit is largely due to imports from other EU-15 countries. 328 Austria has seen its output increase from 0.78 billion in 1996 to 1.9 billion in 2003. Employment grew from 3.8 thousand in 1995 to 4.9 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP increased from 0.43 per cent in 1995 to 0.83 per cent in 2003 and as a share of OECD consumption it rose, between these two years, from 2.0 per cent to 3.3 per cent. Austria’s trade surplus with the rest of the world doubled from 0.26 billion in 1995 to 0.52 billion in

Railway equipment

292

2004. On the other hand its trade balance with EU-10 countries remained relatively small throughout though it is noticeable that it switched from a surplus of 1 million in 1995 to a deficit of 0.1 billion in 2004. 329 Spanish output increased steadily from 0.81 billion in 1995 to 1.51 billion in 2003. Employment rose slightly from 7.5 thousand in 1995 to 8.9 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP remained steady throughout while output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 2.07 per cent in 1995 to 2.75 per cent in 2003. Spain’s overall trade surplus increased from 0.06 billion in 1995 to 0.18 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: national level, other Member States 330 Amongst other countries, Italy’s production increased marginally from 0.96 billion in 1995 to 1.37 billion in 2003 whilst employment remained roughly stable at around 10 thousand. Its trade surplus with the rest of the world rose slightly from 0.15 billion in 1995 to 0.21 billion in 2004. 331 Czech production grew marginally from 0.32 billion in 1995 to 0.55 billion in 2003. Employment declined from 16 thousand in 1995 to 10 thousand in 2003.

Triangulating the evidence 332 There is no evidence of relocation at the European level. Employment and output are increasing steadily, trade surpluses are improving and the industry outlook according to UNIFE is positive. Some member states, notably Germany, the Czech Republic and France have seen drops in employment. 333 In the case of Germany, output growth was very sluggish and the trade deficit with EU-10 countries increased. The self-sufficiency index and trade surpluses with other EU-15 countries increased. This suggests that domestic demand in Germany is falling and that German manufacturers are exporting more to other EU-15 countries and importing more from EU-10 countries. This scenario is reasonably consistent with the possibility of some relocation from Germany to the EU-10 countries


Germany 30%

France 17%United Kingdom

17%

Austria 11%

Other 25%



122

124

126

128

130

132

134

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pro

duct

ion



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Railway equipment

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 1.89 0.44 0.83 1.68 3.34 0.46 0.36 1.96 1.43 0.10 0.13

Belgium

Denmark

Finland 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.12 0.09 0.52 0.76 0.83 0.55 0.03 0.02

France 3.07 0.17 0.19 4.42 5.42 0.15 0.16 1.18 1.14 0.06 0.06

Germany 5.44 0.22 0.25 8.26 9.62 0.17 0.28 1.06 1.43 0.07 0.06

Greece

Ireland

Italy 1.38 0.11 0.11 2.30 2.43 0.15 0.31 1.15 1.22 0.04 0.05

Luxembourg

Netherlands 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.13 0.20 1.04 1.08 0.89 0.29 0.05

Portugal 0.21 0.16 0.16 0.33 0.38 0.50 0.31 0.57 0.73 0.06 0.05

Spain 1.56 0.17 0.20 1.85 2.76 0.10 0.25 1.31 1.09 0.05 0.05

Sweden 0.97 0.27 0.37 1.24 1.53 0.23 0.16 0.99 1.01 0.09 0.12

United Kingdom 3.04 0.12 0.19 3.21 5.38 0.28 0.14 0.85 0.94 0.04 0.05

EU15 17.71 0.17 0.20 23.53 31.31 0.06 0.06

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus

Czech Republic 0.55 0.47 0.69 0.49 0.98 2.07 0.43 5.37 1.52 0.28 0.23

Estonia

Hungary 0.31 0.25 0.42 0.21 0.55 0.50 0.36 1.63 1.02 0.14 0.17

Latvia 0.04 0.25 0.37 0.03 0.06 0.46 0.31 0.66 0.82 0.26 0.34

Lithuania 0.01 0.05 0.01 1.04 0.31 0.05

Malta

Poland 0.55 0.32 0.26 0.94 0.88 0.14 0.13

Slovakia 0.23 0.69 0.80 0.25 0.41 0.29 0.32

Slovenia 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.07 0.07 0.24 0.81 1.13 0.97 0.18 0.16

EU10 1.73 0.34 0.41 1.99 3.06 0.17 0.17

EU25 19.44 0.17 0.21 25.52 34.38 0.08 0.08

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Latvia and Poland

2. 1999 and 2002 for Sweden, Latvia and Poland

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

294

Railway equipment


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.43 0.52 0.20 0.36 0.01 -0.10 0.16 0.16

Belgium -0.02 -0.08 -0.01 -0.09 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01

Denmark -0.05 -0.17 -0.05 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01

Finland -0.01 -0.16 -0.01 -0.16 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01

France 0.36 0.29 0.08 0.14 -0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.11

Germany 0.24 1.83 0.23 1.35 -0.18 -0.18 0.16 0.28

Greece -0.16 -0.22 -0.15 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 0.00

Ireland 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Italy 0.16 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03

Luxembourg -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

Netherlands -0.01 -0.41 0.00 -0.41 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01

Portugal -0.13 -0.03 -0.14 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Spain 0.23 0.19 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.11

Sweden 0.00 0.01 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.03

United Kingdom -0.30 -0.36 -0.06 -0.29 -0.01 -0.04 0.04 0.01

EU15 0.59 1.01 -0.22 -0.38 0.60 0.77


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus 0.00

Czech Republic 0.21 0.21 0.13 0.11 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04

Estonia -0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.08

Hungary 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04

Latvia -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03

Lithuania -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02

Malta 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland 0.18 0.17 -0.04 0.01

Slovakia 0.08 0.06 0.01 0.01

Slovenia 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EU10 0.20 0.41 0.16 0.44 0.04 -0.11

EU25 0.85 1.36 0.63 0.65 0 0 0 0 0








295

Railway equipment

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

296

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.0001

-0.00008

-0.00006

-0.00004

-0.00002

0

0.00002

0.00004

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

297

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

298

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

299

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

300

Railway equipment

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

301

Railway equipment

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

302

Railway equipment

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

Product

ion


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.045

-0.04

-0.035

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

303

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.00015

-0.0001

-0.00005

0

0.00005

0.0001

0.00015

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.45

-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

304

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

305

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

306

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

307

Railway equipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

308

Shipbuilding

309

Shipbuilding

Sector definition 334 For the purposes of this study, the shipbuilding industry covers the manufacture of bulk cargo carriers, including tankers, bulk carriers, container ships; other cargo carrying ships, including chemical tankers, LPG tankers, RO-RO and ferries; niche sectors, including cruise ships, LNG carriers and other specialised ships.

The data 335 The data on production and employment in the shipbuilding sector have been obtained from the Community of European Shipyards Associations (CESA). 336 The main reason for this choice is the view held by the stakeholders, both within the EESC and within CESA that the NACE classification system, upon which Eurostat data are based, does not allow for a distinction to be made between the activity of interest, namely shipbuilding as defined by CESA, and other activities such as the manufacture of small recreation boats. The other reason for this choice is the relative paucity of data relating to shipbuilding within Eurostat. 337 CESA have provided detailed data relating to production and employment in CESA member countries, of which fourteen are EU Member States. Therefore, in order to maintain consistency and comparability, this analysis of the shipbuilding sector only covers the fourteen countries (of which three have no data for the period) that are both EU Member States and CESA members. For ease of presentation, we will refer to the set of Member States that are members of CESA as EU-CESA20.338 Trade data are available from COMEXT though these figures are wider covering Chapter 89 of the Combined Nomenclature 8 (CN8) classification used by COMEXT. This chapter covers “ships, boats and floating structures”. 339 Data for FDI and for input-output tables are not available for the shipbuilding sector specifically and no figures are reported for these indicators here.

Context 340 According to data from CESA, production across their EU members in 2004 was 9.3 billion and employment was 84.8 thousand. In 2004, output made up 0.1 per cent of GDP across the CESA members in 2004 and, in 2003, 18.3 per cent of OECD consumption. 341 According to Eurostat’s COMEXT, the EU-25 had a trade deficit of 0.66 billion with the rest of the world in 2004. On the other hand the trade balance with

20 These Member States are Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,

Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom. There is no data for the relevant period for Belgium, Ireland and Sweden.

developing countries in 2004 registered a surplus of 0.74 billion. 342 According to CESA data for 2004, the largest producers amongst its members were Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Finland.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 343 Output in the EU-CESA was fairly steady at approximately 10 billion over the period 1995-2004. Employment, on the other hand, fell from 107 thousand in 1999 to 84 thousand in 2004. Output as a share of GDP declined from 0.14 per cent in 1999 to 0.1 per cent in 2004. Output as a share of OECD consumption dropped from 18.1 per cent in 1999 to 15.5 per cent in 2002 before rising to 18.3 per cent in 2003. 344 The EU-25 had a trade surplus of 1.78 billion in 1999 and this changed to a deficit of 0.66 billion in 2004. The surplus with developing countries dropped from 2.3 in 1999 to 0.7 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 345 Over the period 1995-2004, German output varied between 2.0 billion and 3.5 billion and stood at 2.3 billion in 2004. Employment dropped steadily from 33 thousand in 1995 to 23 thousand in 2004. Output as shares of GDP and of OECD consumption followed closely followed the pattern of output itself. The self-sufficiency ratio varied between 1999 and 2004 but settled in 2004 at a level lower than what it was in 1999. The import penetration ratio increased significantly from 0.02 in 1997 to 0.8 in 2004. Germany’s overall trade balance changed from a surplus of 1.6 billion in 1995 to deficit of 0.4 billion in 2004. This change is largely due to the change in the balance with developing countries from a surplus of 0.34 billion in 1996 to a deficit of 0.56 billion in 2004. 346 Italy’s output varied considerably over the period 1995-2004; the data do suggest an upward trend from 2000 ( 1.4 billion) to 2004 ( 2.2 billion). Employment increased from 10 thousand in 1995 to 14 thousand in

Figure 1: Output in EU-15, Japan, South Korea and China

( Million)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EU-15 Japan South Korea China

Source: CESA, Internal Data

Shipbuilding

310

2001 before declining sharply to 7 thousand in 2004. Output as shares of GDP and OECD consumption varied in tandem with output itself. The self-sufficiency ratio varied considerably over the period and was equal to 1.7 in 2004. The import penetration ratio increased from 0.14 in 1997 to 0.72 in 2001 before declining to 0.48 in 2004. Italy’s trade surplus with the rest of the world increased from 0.4 billion in 1995 to 0.7 billion in 2004. 347 Production in Spain increased from 0.6 billion in 1997 to 1.2 billion in 2004. Employment, on the other hand, declined from 11.7 thousand in 1995 to 5.5 thousand in 2004. Output ratios followed the same pattern as output itself. Spain’s trade surplus with the rest of the world increased from 0.34 billion in 1995 to 1.22 billion in 2004. This is largely driven by the increase in surplus with developing countries from 0.18 billion in 1995 to

0.94 billion in 2004. 348 Dutch output increased marginally from 0.93 billion in 1997 to 1.05 billion in 2004. Employment remained fairly steady at just over 9 thousand employees. The trade surplus with the rest of the world increased from 0.18 billion in 1999 to 0.44 billion in 2004. This improvement was largely due to an increase in the surplus with other EU-15 countries. 349 Production in Finland remained stable at approximately

1 billion during the period. Employment declined from 7.3 thousand in 1995 to 4.8 thousand in 2004. Finland’s trade balance with developing countries changed from a surplus of 0.42 billion in 1995 to a deficit of 0.03 billion in 2004.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 350 Amongst other countries, Polish production fell from

0.9 billion in 1997 to 0.6 billion in 2004. Employment also declined from 36 thousand in 1995 to 15 thousand in 2004. There is a single data point for the Polish trade balance: in 2004 it held a trade deficit of 0.12 billion with developing countries, and a surplus of 0.19 billion with EU-15 countries. 351 Denmark’s output dropped from 0.80 in 1997 to 0.47 in 2004. Employment declined from 8 thousand in 1995 to 3 thousand in 2004. The trade balance with developing countries has changed from a surplus of 0.38 in 1995 to a deficit of 0.24 billion in 2004. The evidence points to a possibility of some relocation here. 352 France has seen output decline from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 0.3 billion in 2004. Employment has also declined from 7 thousand in 1995 to 3 thousand in 2004. Portugal followed a similar trend to France; output fell from 0.13 billion in 1997 to 0.05 billion in 2004 and employment dropped from 4 thousand in 1995 to 1 thousand in 2004. Greece has also seen employment drop; from 5.5 thousand in 1995 to 3.3 thousand in 2004; lack of data does not allow us to judge how Greek output evolved over the period. Trade data for France, Portugal and Greece are not conclusive, however, in revealing a growing trend in net imports. French trade data, for example, reveal that France’s trade surplus with the rest of


Germany 25%

Italy 24%

Spain 13%

Netherlands11%

Other 27%



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pro

duct

ion



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Shipbuilding

311

the rest of the world and its trade surplus with developing

countries fell gradually in the period 1995-1999, then

jumped up significantly and remained at relatively high

levels from 2000-2003 and in 2004 dropped back down to

levels closer to those in 1999. This pattern does not allow

us to infer whether the observed drop in the French trade

surplus in 2004 marks the start of a declining trend or not.

Movements in the trade balance for Greece and Portugal

too do not allow for an unambiguous reading of the trends

in imports from the rest of the world or from developing

countries.

353 Output in the United Kingdom dropped from 0.52

billion in 1997 to 0.01 billion in 2004. However,

employment does not seem to have followed this

downward trend. Employment stayed relatively stable at

around 7 thousand employees.

Triangulating the evidence 354 As part of this study, a telephonic interview was

conducted with an official representing CESA. The

considered opinion of CESA is that the shipbuilding

industry in Europe is growing. This growth is mainly due

to a high degree of concentration on manufacturing high-

value and specialised ships. Some lower value activities

may have relocated to other parts of the world, but this

has not resulted in an overall reduction in activity within

the European Union.

355 Turning towards our analysis, at the EU-CESA level,

output has remained fairly steady, which suggests that

there has not been a drop in levels of activity. However,

there has been a significant drop in employment. The

trade data suggest that imports from developing countries

is on the rise relative to exports.

356 Amongst individual Member States, with the exception

of the Netherlands and the UK, employment has declined

significantly everywhere else.

357 Taken together, the evidence suggests that the sector

has seen an unequally distributed drop in activity, rise in

labour productivity and a rise in imports from developing

countries. As far as relocation is concerned, the data

points to the possibility of relocation from Germany and

Denmark. We do not think that trade data for France,

Portugal and Greece allow us to identify a clear trend of

growing imports and therefore to infer that there has been

relocation; on the other hand, the data for these countries

do point towards deindustrialisation in relation to

shipbuilding.

Shipbuilding

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2004 1999 2004 1999 2003 1999 2004 1999 2004 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2004

Austria 0.00

Belgium 0.03

Denmark 0.48 0.46 0.24 1.33 0.37 1.01 1.93 0.49 0.21 0.13

Finland 0.98 0.69 0.65 1.47 0.21 4.40 0.35 0.35

France 0.37 0.06 0.02 1.45 0.55 0.94 1.22 0.94 0.05 0.10

Germany 2.31 0.10 0.10 3.68 0.72 0.80 1.80 0.84 0.06 0.06

Greece 0.05 0.03 1.01 0.03

Ireland 0.02 0.02

Italy 2.21 0.23 0.16 4.60 0.16 0.49 1.64 1.72 0.09 0.09

Luxembourg

Netherlands 1.05 0.31 0.21 2.06 0.12 0.16 1.37 1.74 0.15 0.11

Portugal 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.02 -11.07 1.19 -10.27 12.36 0.12 0.08

Spain 1.25 0.16 0.15 1.68 0.41 6.45 1.48 44.82 0.18 0.15

Sweden 0.07

United Kingdom 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.25 1.27 -0.24 1.10 -0.06 0.11 0.08

EU15 8.71 0.13 0.10 16.52 0.10 0.09

2004 1999 2004 1999 2003 1999 2004 1999 2004 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2004

Cyprus 0.02

Czech Republic

Estonia 0.31

Hungary 0.01 0.01

Latvia 0.30 0.26

Lithuania 0.35 0.35

Malta 2.61

Poland 0.61 0.59 0.30 1.63 4.18 1.30 0.27

Slovakia

Slovenia 0.02 0.02

EU10 0.61 0.59 0.30 1.63 0.23 0.05

EU25 9.31 0.14 0.10 18.16 0.12 0.08

Notes:

1. Data are from CESA

2. Data are from CESA

3. EU level aggregates only include those countries for which data is available

(%) (%) (%)



Self Sufficiency Ratio Narrow Measure Wide MeasureShare of total employment


312

Shipbuilding


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria

Belgium -0.99 -0.04 -0.19 0.01

Denmark 0.36 -0.51 0.20 0.22 0.03 -0.03 0.13 -0.24

Finland 0.75 0.08 0.14 -0.04

France 0.15 -0.03 0.06 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.28

Germany 0.93 -0.42 0.01 0.04 -0.17 -0.11 1.20 -0.56

Greece -0.91 -1.75 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.27

Ireland -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Italy 1.02 0.93 -0.01 0.47 0.02 0.02 0.56 0.69

Luxembourg

Netherlands 0.32 0.44 0.12 0.36 -0.02 -0.02 0.09 0.03

Portugal 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03

Spain 0.31 1.22 0.03 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.11 0.95

Sweden -0.01 -0.21 -0.11 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.11

United Kingdom 0.01 0.20 0.08 0.12 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 0.11

EU15 1.66 -0.63 -0.12 -0.02 2.32 0.88


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus 0.00 0.00 0.00

Czech Republic

Estonia 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00

Hungary

Latvia 0.00

Lithuania -0.01 -0.04 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00

Malta 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Poland 0.14 0.19 0.00 -0.13

Slovakia

Slovenia -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

EU10 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.21 0.00 -0.13

EU25 1.78 -0.66 2.32 0.74


European Restructuring Monitor




Jobs lost due to delocalisation, 2002-2005Trade Balance with all

countries

Balance of Trade

313

Shipbuilding

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Finland

314

Shipbuilding

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


France

Germany

315

Shipbuilding

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Product

ion


0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Greece

Italy

316

Shipbuilding

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Netherlands

Poland

317

Shipbuilding

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Product

ion


0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Portugal

Spain

318

Shipbuilding

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


00.0050.01

0.0150.02

0.0250.03

0.0350.04

0.0450.05

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

319

Textiles

321

Textiles

Sector definition 358 The manufacturing of textiles is covered by NACE division 17. This includes activities such as textile weaving and finishing, and the manufacture of made-up textile articles (except apparel) and knitted and crocheted fabrics. 359 This definition appears to align with what the trade association EURATEX refers to as textile and knitting (EURATEX also covers clothing which is treated as part of another sector in this report). The only breakdown within the sector is between textile and man-made fibres, which accounted for 79 per cent of sector turnover and 60 per cent of sector employment in the EU-15 in 2003, and knitting which up the remainder.

Data Coverage 360 The availability of Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics (SBS) data on production and employment is reasonably good for. However, there are still some gaps. Again, there are no data for Greece. Data on Germany, Hungary, Latvia and Malta are only available for a limited period. COMEXT data on Poland and Slovakia are only available for one year. 361 Data are available on Input-output measures and ERM job losses. Data on FDI are available only at the more aggregate level of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear and are not reported here (and even at that aggregate level coverage of the FDI data is sparse).

Context 362 It should be noted that over the period to which the data relates the Multi-Fibre Agreement was in force which restricted the imports of textiles from developing nations. The agreement ended in January 2005. 363 In 200321, EURATEX members in the EU-15 had a total turnover of 111.4 billion and total employment of just over 1 million. 364 EURATEX data are of a similar order to those reported by (SBS. According to SBS data for 2003, production in the textiles sector stood at 107.5 billion. This accounted for 1.1 per cent of EU-25 GDP and 63.8 per cent of OECD consumption. SBS data also reveal that the sector employed 1.07 million employees in 2003. 365 The largest producers in the EU-25 according to SBS 2003 data were Italy, Germany, France, United Kingdom and Spain. These countries together accounted for over 79 per cent of total EU-25 production. 366 Data on external trade fro COMEXT report that the EU-25 had in 2004 a trade surplus of 5.8 billion with the

21 EURATEX (2005) Available from

http://www.euratex.org/download/publications/others/keyfigures_novembre_2005.pdf

rest pf the world. With developing countries, the EU-25 had a surplus of 4.5 billion in that same year. 367 EURATEX reports that the largest customers in 2003 for EU-25 textiles were USA, Romania, Tunisia, Morocco and Turkey; between them, these countries accounted for 45 per cent of EU-25 exports that totalled 18.5 billion. Turkey, Romania and Tunisia also appear in the top five clothing suppliers to the EU-25 suggesting that they source their textiles from the EU, convert them into clothing and export them back to the EU. 368 The largest suppliers of textiles to the EU-25 are China, Turkey, India, Pakistan and Switzerland who combined accounted for 57 per cent of EU-25 imports of textiles in 2003. Within the EU-10 Member States, Poland is the largest textile customer of the EU-15 consuming 1.94 billion of textiles in 2003, and the Czech Republic is the largest textile supplier to the EU-15 supplying 1 billion of textiles in 2003.

Relocation indicators: EU-25 369 Output in the EU-25 increased from 114.7 billion in 1999 to 120.2 billion in 2001 before declining to 107.5 billion in 2003. Employment fell steadily from 1.29 million in 1999 to 1.07 million in 2003. 370 Output as a share of GDP dropped gradually steadily from 1.37 per cent in 1999 to 1.1 per cent in 2003. Output as a share of OECD consumption fell from 41.8 per cent in 1999 to 37.1 per cent in 2000 before increasing to 63.8 per cent in 2003. 371 The EU-25 had a trade surplus with the rest of the world throughout the period 1999-2005, and this surplus increased steadily from 1.26 billion in 1999 to 5.78 billion in 2004. The surplus with developing countries increased from 1.49 billion to 4.56 billion during the same period.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 372 As noted earlier, Italy is the largest producer within the European textile sector. Italian output increased from

34.3 billion in 1995 to 40 billion in 2001 before declining to 35.7 billion in 2003. Employment fell steadily from 288 thousand in 1995 to 243 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 4 per cent in 1995 to 2.75 per cent in 2003, while output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 13.7 per cent to 21.2 per cent during the same period. Italy had a trade surplus with the rest of the world throughout 1995-2004; it increased from 2.9 billion in 1995 to 4.9 billion in 2004. Italy had a trade deficit of 0.10 billion with developing countries in 1995 and this improved to a surplus of 1.45 billion by 2004. 373 Germany saw its output decline steadily from 16.3 billion in 1999 to 13.7 billion in 2003. Employment levels also fell; from 137 thousand in 1999 to 113 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 0.81 per cent in 1999 to 0.63 per cent in 2003,

Textiles

322

while output as a share of OECD consumption grew from 5.9 per cent to 8.1 per cent during the same period. The self-sufficiency ratio increased from 1.16 in 1999 to 1.33 in 2003, while the import penetration ratio increased from 0.62 to 0.79 during the same period. Germany’s trade surplus with the rest of the world improved from 2.52 billion in 1995 to 3.30 billion in 2004. 374 French output increased from 14.8 billion in 1996 to

16.1 billion in 1998 but fell subsequently, reaching 13.7 billion in 2003. The number of employees in the sector dropped from 138 thousand in 1996 to 103 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP declined from 1.19 per cent in 1996 to 0.79 per cent in 2003, while output as a share of OECD consumption increased from 5.9 per cent to 8.1 per cent during the same period. Both the self-sufficiency index and the import penetration index increased in the period 1996-2003. France’s trade balance is, compared to production, relatively low. Its standing with the rest of the world improved from a deficit of 0.21 billion in 1995 to a surplus of 0.56 billion by 2004. The surplus with developing countries increased from 0.61 billion in 1995 to 1.2 billion in 2004. On the other hand France’s deficit with EU-15 countries increased from 0.6 billion in 1995 to 0.9 billion in 2004. 375 The UK saw its output decline from 12.8 billion in 1996 to 9.4 billion in 2003. Employment levels declined significantly from 193 thousand in 1996 to 98 thousand in 2003. Output as a share of GDP dropped from 1.37 per cent in 1996 to 0.59 per cent in 2003, while output as a share of OECD consumption remained fairly constant over this period. The UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world declined from 1.7 billion in 1995 to 0.9 billion in 2004. The balance with developing countries switched from a deficit of 0.46 billion in 1995 to a surplus of 0.14 billion by 2004; relatively low levels compared to domestic production.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 376 Spanish output increased from 6.9 billion in 1995 to

9.3 billion in 2003. Employment levels also rose; from 90 thousand in 1995 to 108 thousand in 2001 before declining to 98 thousand in 2003. Spain’s trade deficit with other EU-15 countries increased from 0.07 billion in 1995 to 0.33 billion in 2004. 377 Belgium’s output remained fairly steady around 7billion from 1995 to 2003, while employment has declined from 44 thousand 37 thousand between these two years. There are no significant changes in the Belgian indicators relating to self-sufficiency, import penetration or trade balances. 378 Portuguese output declined slightly from 4.4 billion in 1995 to 4 billion in 2003. Employment fell rapidly from 120 thousand in 1996 to 85 thousand in 2003. Over the period 1995-2004, there was a slight reduction in the overall trade deficit, and in the deficit with other EU-15 countries. The deficit with developing countries remained largely unchanged.

Triangulating the evidence 379 The data reveal that the EU-25 as a whole saw declining levels of employment and of production on the one hand and growing trade surplus on the other. The textile industry is in a unique position as its output is a key input in the clothing and apparel sector. Any developments in the clothing sector will affect demand for textiles. 380 The trend of falling production and employment in the textiles sector is probably a reflection of the decline in domestic manufacturing of clothing and apparel. Given the fall in the production level of its key customer market, the decline in domestic manufacturing of textiles did not lead to a shortfall in supply that had to be made up by increasing imports. 381 Therefore in order to fully understand the picture as regards to relocation in the textiles sector, it is necessary to look at the clothing sector as well. All the evidence in the clothing sector points to significant relocation to developing countries, and therefore it is highly probable that the decline in domestic activity related to textile manufacturing is also driven by this process.


Italy 36%

Germany 13%France 13%

United Kingdom9%

Other 29%



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

100

105

110

115

120

125

Pro

duct

ion



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Textiles

323

Triangulating the evidence 379 The data reveal that the EU-25 as a whole saw

declining levels of employment and of production on the

one hand and growing trade surplus on the other. The

textile industry is in a unique position as its output is a

key input in the clothing and apparel sector. Any

developments in the clothing sector will affect demand for

textiles.

380 The trend of falling production and employment in the

textiles sector is probably a reflection of the decline in

domestic manufacturing of clothing and apparel. Given

the fall in the production level of its key customer market,

the decline in domestic manufacturing of textiles did not

lead to a shortfall in supply that had to be made up by

increasing imports.

381 Therefore in order to fully understand the picture as

regards to relocation in the textiles sector, it is necessary

to look at the clothing sector as well. All the evidence in

the clothing sector points to significant relocation to

developing countries, and therefore it is highly probable

that the decline in domestic activity related to textile

manufacturing is also driven by this process.

Textiles

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 2.19 1.24 0.96 0.90 1.30 0.74 0.91 1.24 1.37 0.56 0.51 0.84 0.86 0.56 0.46

Belgium 6.62 2.77 2.41 2.40 3.93 0.86 0.78 1.65 1.75 0.61 0.74 1.22 1.40 1.03 0.91

Denmark 1.01 0.69 0.54 0.41 0.60 0.69 0.88 0.90 1.08 0.37 0.48 0.79 0.91 0.33 0.25

Finland 0.64 0.57 0.45 0.25 0.38 0.59 0.63 0.87 0.89 0.28 0.32 0.74 0.76 0.29 0.21

France 13.74 1.12 0.87 5.60 8.15 0.40 0.42 1.03 1.06 0.56 0.42

Germany 13.79 0.81 0.64 5.95 8.18 0.63 0.79 1.16 1.33 0.23 0.28 0.59 0.72 0.38 0.31

Greece

Ireland 0.38 0.51 0.27 0.17 0.22 0.99 0.98 0.92 0.97 0.45 0.24

Italy 35.77 3.16 2.75 12.96 21.23 0.22 0.23 1.12 1.15 0.28 0.31 0.52 0.57 1.27 1.10

Luxembourg 0.53 2.67 2.31 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.62 1.38 1.31 0.50 0.45

Netherlands 2.61 0.75 0.55 1.03 1.55 1.63 2.01 1.56 1.99 0.49 0.44 1.23 1.17 0.24 0.20

Portugal 4.07 3.87 2.97 1.61 2.41 0.37 0.37 0.79 0.81 2.13 1.66

Spain 9.26 1.46 1.19 3.09 5.50 0.33 0.36 0.98 0.98 0.69 0.57

Sweden 1.01 0.44 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.62 0.69 0.89 0.93 0.38 0.27 0.80 0.65 0.25 0.19

United Kingdom 9.43 0.99 0.59 4.97 5.60 0.42 0.50 0.88 0.91 0.58 0.35

EU15 101.03 1.37 1.09 39.91 59.98 0.66 0.52

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.03 0.27 0.02 0.66 0.38 0.23

Czech Republic 1.69 2.58 2.10 0.52 1.00 0.64 0.75 0.80 0.79 1.47 1.16

Estonia 0.28 3.20 3.47 0.06 0.17 0.68 0.64 0.59 0.64 1.42 1.91

Hungary 0.61 1.11 0.88 0.18 0.23 0.81 0.85 0.38 0.44 0.44 1.31 0.84 2.36 0.90 0.83

Latvia 0.17 1.95 1.69 0.05 0.10 0.64 0.70 0.71 0.61 1.10 1.01

Lithuania 0.33 2.43 1.98 0.09 0.19 0.77 0.81 0.55 0.50 1.63 1.34

Malta 0.05 1.23 1.26 0.02 0.02 0.80 0.81 0.38 0.48 0.53 0.82

Poland 2.42 1.22 1.16 0.70 0.91 0.70 0.54

Slovakia 0.26 0.86 0.88 0.06 0.15 0.80 0.84

Slovenia 0.68 3.00 2.72 0.22 0.40 0.48 0.49 0.84 0.94 1.10 1.41 1.58 1.69 1.63 1.46

EU10 6.51 1.58 1.45 1.91 3.86 0.95 0.82

EU25 107.54 1.37 1.10 41.82 63.84 0.71 0.57

Notes:

1. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Sweden, Hungary, Malta and Poland


3. 1999 and 2002 for Luxembourg, Sweden, Hungary, Malta and Poland

(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

324

Textiles


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.47 0.57 0.11 0.04 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.25 0 0 70 0 70

Belgium 2.59 2.76 2.36 2.23 0.27 0.28 -0.07 0.11 47 0 0 0 47

Denmark -0.12 0.03 -0.24 -0.07 0.15 0.09 0.00 0.03

Finland -0.10 -0.08 -0.16 -0.16 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.06

France 0.44 0.55 -0.65 -0.89 0.24 0.25 0.97 1.21

Germany 2.30 3.30 -0.27 0.15 1.75 1.48 0.89 1.32 100 130 0 0 230

Greece -0.22 -0.01 -0.28 -0.16 0.01 0.02 -0.01 0.09

Ireland -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.07 0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.00

Italy 3.90 4.97 2.90 2.38 0.28 0.39 0.34 1.46 225 0 0 0 225

Luxembourg 0.14 0.15 0.06 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03

Netherlands 1.01 1.21 0.48 0.58 0.24 0.20 0.12 0.13

Portugal -1.15 -0.82 -0.84 -0.60 0.01 0.02 -0.29 -0.23

Spain -0.16 -0.23 -0.06 -0.34 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.11 0 0 698 0 698

Sweden -0.13 -0.14 -0.23 -0.26 0.12 0.10 -0.02 -0.02 80 0 0 0 80

United Kingdom -1.94 -0.97 -1.32 -1.18 0.12 0.11 -0.42 0.15 0 0 270 0 270

EU15 5.15 9.52 3.46 3.20 1.73 4.69


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

Czech Republic -0.36 -0.44 -0.30 -0.49 0.09 0.11 -0.11 -0.05

Estonia -0.11 -0.18 -0.08 -0.11 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04

Hungary -0.81 -0.66 -0.66 -0.62 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 0.04

Latvia -0.05 -0.10 -0.05 -0.10 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01

Lithuania -0.20 -0.31 -0.16 -0.27 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01

Malta -0.07 -0.02 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

Poland -2.33 -1.83 -0.11 -0.15

Slovakia -0.42 -0.34 -0.05 0.00

Slovenia -0.11 -0.08 -0.12 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0 0 180 0 180

EU10 -1.88 -4.50 -1.46 -3.97 -0.24 -0.13

EU25 1.27 5.79 1.49 4.56








325

Textiles

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

326

Textiles

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

327

Textiles

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

328

Textiles

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

329

Textiles

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

330

Textiles

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.085

0.09

0.095

0.1

0.105

0.11

0.115

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

331

Textiles

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

332

Textiles

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

333

Textiles

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

0.56

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

334

Textiles

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

335

Textiles

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.45

-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product

ion


2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

336

Textiles

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

337

Textiles

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

338

Wood manufacturing

339

Wood manufacturing

Sector definition 382 The manufacture of wood and wood products, other than furniture, is covered by the NACE division 20. This covers the manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork except furniture, and the manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials. 383 This definition of the sector agrees precisely with the definition of the “wood industry strictu sensu” used by the European Confederation of Woodworking Industries, CEI-Bois22. For CEI-Bois, a wider definition of the sector would have also included the manufacturing of furniture, though, as revealed by CEI-Bois’ own reports, they see it meaningful to discuss the two as separate sub-sectors. Borrowing the words from CEI-Bois, the sector covered by this section relates to the wood-industry strictu sensu.384 Within this sector, the manufacturing of builders’ carpentry and joinery accounted for 38 per cent of the sector’s production in 2001 for the EU-25. The other most important contributors to the sector related to the sawmilling and planning of wood and impregnation of wood (25 per cent) and the manufacture of veneer sheets, of plywood, laminboard, particleboard, fibreboard and other panels and boards (17 per cent). The production of wood containers accounted for 8 per cent, and the complementary share, 12 per cent, related to the manufacturing of other wooden products and of articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials.

Data coverage 385 Data from Eurostat — Structural Business Statistics (SBS) and Comext — on activity levels and external trade on the wood sector are fairly complete, with the exceptions of data for Greece and Malta for which SBS reports no figures on production or employment. 386 We note that SBS employment figures may be under-estimated as they do not cover firms with less than 20 employees, and we expect that there are a significant number of enterprises smaller than this in the sector. SME’s accounted for 78 per cent of the value added in the sector in the EU-25 in 2001 compared to an industry average of 40 per cent, according to Eurostat’s “European businesses – facts and figures”. 387 Data on domestic and on FDI are only available at the aggregated level of “wood and paper”. Accordingly we do not report them here.

Context 388 In 2003, production in the wood sector stood at 106.7 billion (excludes Greece and Malta) and accounted for 1.0 per cent of EU-25 GDP. In 2003, there were 992 thousand people employed in the sector (excluding 22 CEI-Bois (2003) “The woodworking industry in the European Union

in 2003” Available from http://www.cei-bois.org/frameset.html

Greece and Malta and using 2002 figures for Luxembourg, Poland and Sweden). 389 Production in the wood industry is considerably less concentrated across Member States than many other sectors. The share of the combined five largest producers is 69 per cent; Germany (20 per cent), Italy (17 per cent), France (12 per cent) and the UK and Spain (10 per cent each). 390 This ranking is slightly different if employment, rather than production, figures are considered. In terms of the number of people employed, Germany and Italy remain the two most significant Member States, accounting for 14 and 11 per cent of the EU-wide employment in the sector, whilst Spain and Poland, each accounting for 10 per cent, would appear as the next two most significant Member States. These two countries would be followed by France and the UK, accounting for 9 and 8 per cent respectively. 391 It is also worth noting that wood manufacturing accounts for a significant share of the national GDP in a number of Member States. Most notably, it accounts for just over 9 per cent for Estonia and Latvia and around 4 per cent for Finland (2003 figures).

Relocation indicators: EU-25 392 At the EU-25 level, the number of people employed in the wood manufacturing sector remained fairly stable from 1999 to 2003, around the one million mark. 393 Production too has remained fairly flat across the EU-25 as a whole: from 1999 to 2003, production rose just by 8 per cent over that four year period. 394 This growth has been slower than that of European GDP as a whole as evidenced by the consistent, if slight, downward trend in the share of EU-25 GDP accounted for by production in this sector; this share fell from 1.18 per cent in 1999 to 1.10 per cent in 2003. Running against this trend, EU production has actually increased its share of the wood manufacturing consumption in the OECD as a whole, though the increase is very slight and, overall, it could be said that the level has remained fairly flat at around 40 per cent. 395 The image of relative stability is also reflected in the EU-25 trade balance which has not seen any significant changes in the period from 1999 to 2003. The trade deficit with all countries fell from 3.9 billion in 1999 to

3.1 billion in 2003, whereas the deficit with developing countries actually rose from 4.3 billion to 6.0 billion.

Relocation indicators: largest producing Member States 396 Analysis of the various indicators of relocation does not reveal a common picture across all EU Member States. 397 Data on production and employment levels for Germany are only available from 1999 to 2003. Over that period, production fell significantly: from 25.0 billion to

18.8 billion, representing a 25 per cent drop. This was

Wood manufacturing

340

accompanied by a fall in the number of people employed of a similar magnitude (22 per cent) over that same period: from 182 thousand to 142 thousand. This fall in activity is mirrored by the fall in the contribution the sector makes to Germany’s GDP (in 2003, it accounted for 0.87 per cent) and by the fall in the German market share of OECD consumption. The latter indicator dropped from 10.2 per cent in 1999 to 7.7 per cent in 2003. Trade data suggest that the decrease in German production has not been made up by increases in imports or decreases in exports. Over the period 1995 to 2004, Germany’s trade balance position swung from a deficit of

2.7 billion to a surplus of 0.8 billion. It is worth noting that the prime driver for this change was the reversal in the trade position with respect to other EU-15 countries and the improvement in the trade position within the OECD but outside the EU-25. The trade deficit with EU-10 and with developing fell over the period but not by a significant degree. 398 Data on Italy paints a different picture. There, over the period from 1995 to 2003, the level of employment rose marginally, from 105 to 110 thousand, whilst production increased from 11.4 to 16.3 billion. The rate of increase in production was however lower than that of Italian GDP as a whole so that, as a share of domestic GDP, the relevance of the Italian wood sector actually fell from 1.32 per cent to 1.26 per cent. The increased production did, however, grow Italy’s share of OECD consumption from 5.5 to 6.7 per cent. The Italian trade deficit worsened steadily in the period from 1995 ( 2.0 billion) to 2004 ( 3.0 billion), suggesting that the growth in production was not sufficient to meet domestic consumption. Over this period, Italy held a trade deficit with all three of the trading blocks being considered: with other EU-15, with EU-10 and with developing countries. The deterioration in the overall trade deficit has been driven primarily by increased deficit with other EU-15 members and, to a less extent, to an increased deficit with developing countries. The trade deficit with EU-10 members has remained roughly unaltered at around 250million. 399 Production and employment data suggest that the French wood sector has been, putting it in brief, quite stable over the period 1996 to 2003. Although there has been some variation in the interval, the number of people employed in the sector in 2003 was virtually the same as in 1996 (around 88.5 thousand) and, the sector’s share of total employment fell marginally from 0.40 to 0.36 per cent. Production rose over this period but at a very low rate; from 9.4 to 11.7 billion and it share of GDP has

remained relatively constant throughout. Domestic consumption, on the other hand, has grown at a slightly faster pace and this has been met by a growth in net imports. But even so, this growth has been limited as revealed by the small increase in the import penetration index and marginal fall in the self-sufficiency index and, indeed, in the relatively small increase in the French trade deficit (from 0.4 billion in 1995 to 1.0 billion in 2004),


Germany 20%

Italy 17%

France 12%United Kingdom10%

Other 41%



970

980

990

1000

1010

1020

1030

1040

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

ploy

men

t

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Pro

duct

ion



1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Shar

e of O

ECD

consu

mption



-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Wood manufacturing

341

rate; from 9.4 to 11.7 billion and it share of GDP has

remained relatively constant throughout. Domestic

consumption, on the other hand, has grown at a slightly

faster pace and this has been met by a growth in net

imports. But even so, this growth has been limited as

revealed by the small increase in the import penetration

index and marginal fall in the self-sufficiency index and,

indeed, in the relatively small increase in the French trade

deficit (from 0.4 billion in 1995 to 1.0 billion in 2004),

which has been driven almost entirely by the growing

deficit with other EU-15 members.

400 The data on the UK, the fourth largest EU contributor

to the woods sector, mirrors, to a large extent that of the

French: the data suggest a relatively stable sector, though

growth, in production terms, is has been more

pronounced. UK production rose from 6.4 billion in

1996 to 9.6 billion in 2003, a growth broadly in line with

that of UK GDP as a whole. Growth in net imports has

been roughly in line with growth in domestic production

and both import penetration ratio and self-sufficiency

ratio have remained fairly constant. The increase in the

trade deficit has been fuelled by growth in the deficit with

other EU-15 members and, to a smaller extent, to growth

in net imports from developing countries.

Relocation indicators: other Member States 401 Of the remaining member states, the available data do

not point to any clear sign of relocation having been a

significant phenomenon. For countries such as Denmark,

Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and

Sweden, production and employment levels have not

changed to any significant extent over the ten-year period

to 2004 nor has the sector’s share of GDP (with the

exception of Finland where the share rose from 3.2 per

cent in 1995 to 3.9 per cent in 2003). Across these

countries, trade data do not indicate any clear signs of

growth in imports from developing or from EU-10

members.

402 Contrary to the above mentioned Member States, the

wood sector has shown signs of growth in the Czech

Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia and

Lithuania. In all of these economies, production — in

absolute terms, as a share of GDP and as a share of OECD

consumption — and employment — in absolute terms and

as a proportion of domestic employment —grew in the

period from around 1995 to 2003. (An exception to this

was Ireland’s production as a proportion of domestic GDP

which did fall from 0.84 per cent in 1995 to 0.74 per cent

in 2003). These Member States exhibiting a growing

woods sector have held, with the exception of Hungary

and Ireland, a positive trade balance throughout the period

of observation, though it is noticeable in the latter years a

small, but increasing, trade deficit with developing

countries. The time profile of Hungary’s trade balance,

on the other hand, shows a switch from a positive balance

in 1999 (the first period of observation for Hungary) to a

small trade deficit in the years since 2000. The reversal is

driven primarily by falling net exports to EU-15 and by a

slight increase in net imports from developing countries.

Finally, data on Ireland shows a consistent trade deficit

which has grown slowly over the period from 1995 ( 80

million) to 2004 ( 360 million) largely due to increased

net imports from EU-15 and from developing countries.

Triangulating the evidence 403 There is no evidence of relocation across the EU-25 as

a whole; the value of EU-25 production has grown and

trade data do not reveal any substantial increases in net

imports from developing countries or from elsewhere.

The fall in employment in the sector may be attributable

to productivity improvements rather than to a cessation of

activity.

404 Imports from developing countries have grown for

Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy and Spain. In all cases,

the value of domestic production has also grown as has

employment for the latter three Member States. These

data are not consistent with a movement of activity away

from the domestic economy.

Wood manufacturing

Production

(Bns.Euros)

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Austria 5.62 2.36 2.48 1.92 2.30 0.38 0.38 1.22 1.36 0.11 0.19 0.34 0.55 0.94 0.92

Belgium 3.25 0.98 1.18 0.95 1.33 0.69 0.58 0.98 1.07 0.64 0.77 1.04 1.27 0.30 0.30

Denmark 1.79 1.07 0.95 0.71 0.73 0.53 0.55 0.84 0.77 0.44 0.33 0.71 0.64 0.58 0.52

Finland 5.61 3.98 3.90 1.97 2.30 0.19 0.21 1.58 1.42 0.16 0.06 0.39 0.39 1.20 1.14

France 11.71 0.78 0.74 4.34 4.80 0.23 0.24 0.95 0.93 0.39 0.36

Germany 18.79 1.24 0.87 10.20 7.69 0.19 0.24 0.94 1.00 0.12 0.14 0.24 0.34 0.50 0.39

Greece

Ireland 1.03 0.80 0.74 0.30 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.75 0.77 0.35 0.37

Italy 16.34 1.23 1.26 5.65 6.69 0.22 0.20 0.86 0.87 0.36 0.38 0.44 0.46 0.51 0.50

Luxembourg 0.14 0.72 0.60 0.06 0.05 1.05 0.97 1.10 1.01 0.20 0.18

Netherlands 2.46 0.63 0.52 0.96 1.01 0.63 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.89 0.90 0.23 0.23

Portugal 3.26 2.92 2.38 1.36 1.33 0.21 0.24 1.18 1.28 1.04 0.87

Spain 9.52 1.36 1.22 3.21 3.90 0.18 0.21 0.91 0.89 0.59 0.55

Sweden 7.34 3.00 2.83 2.91 2.80 0.19 0.21 1.37 1.39 0.05 0.07 0.40 0.32 0.96 0.90

United Kingdom 9.65 0.57 0.60 3.18 3.95 0.33 0.33 0.71 0.72 0.30 0.29

EU15 96.50 1.15 1.04 37.71 39.51 0.49 0.44

2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1999 2003 1995 2000 1995 2000 1999 2003

Cyprus 0.16 1.37 0.07 0.31 0.69 0.86

Czech Republic 2.21 2.40 2.76 0.54 0.91 0.29 0.22 1.49 1.24 1.00 0.97

Estonia 0.74 6.48 9.09 0.14 0.30 -4.15 0.53 -20.94 2.48 2.31 3.02

Hungary 0.77 0.91 1.04 0.17 0.31 0.80 0.56 1.37 0.97 0.39 0.52 0.89 0.99 0.54 0.73

Latvia 0.91 7.68 9.11 0.21 0.37 -0.58 0.93 -9.78 7.78 3.02 3.26

Lithuania 0.51 1.98 3.10 0.08 0.21 0.72 0.46 2.46 1.69 1.35 1.97

Malta

Poland 4.04 1.99 1.93 1.28 1.54 0.74 0.72

Slovakia 0.36 0.92 1.26 0.07 0.15 0.53 0.62

Slovenia 0.53 2.45 2.13 0.20 0.22 0.43 0.50 1.34 1.23 0.21 0.29 0.64 0.66 1.40 1.25

EU10 10.23 2.05 2.30 2.74 4.19 0.90 0.98

EU25 106.73 1.19 1.09 40.45 43.70 0.56 0.52

Notes:




(%) (%) (%)






Narrow Measure

342

Wood manufacturing


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Austria 0.85 1.54 0.85 1.20 -0.32 -0.27 -0.05 0.07 170 170

Belgium -0.04 0.29 0.54 0.75 -0.07 -0.09 -0.42 -0.51

Denmark -0.33 -0.55 -0.17 -0.21 -0.09 -0.21 -0.05 -0.13

Finland 1.76 1.59 1.58 1.53 -0.07 -0.13 -0.04 -0.28

France -0.53 -1.04 -0.07 -0.52 -0.09 -0.13 -0.47 -0.63

Germany -1.66 0.76 -0.24 1.01 -0.95 -0.46 -0.41 -0.55

Greece -0.33 -0.42 -0.17 -0.18 -0.02 -0.02 -0.11 -0.20

Ireland -0.24 -0.36 -0.11 -0.18 -0.01 -0.02 -0.08 -0.15

Italy -2.19 -2.95 -0.97 -1.59 -0.26 -0.33 -0.76 -0.98

Luxembourg 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Netherlands -1.51 -1.36 -0.77 -0.56 -0.11 -0.08 -0.53 -0.68

Portugal 0.52 0.74 0.47 0.57 0.00 0.01 -0.12 -0.05

Spain -0.82 -1.18 -0.25 -0.51 -0.03 -0.06 -0.34 -0.54

Sweden 1.91 1.86 1.67 1.56 -0.28 -0.38 0.00 -0.01

United Kingdom -3.12 -4.01 -1.44 -1.97 -0.42 -0.58 -0.80 -1.14

EU15 -6.65 -6.01 -2.73 -2.75 -4.18 -5.78 170 170


ingcountries

To OECD/non-EU

Total

Cyprus -0.05 -0.08 -0.03 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02

Czech Republic 0.44 0.51 0.44 0.46 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Estonia 0.35 0.40 0.34 0.43 0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.11

Hungary 0.11 -0.03 0.19 0.10 -0.03 -0.07 -0.04 -0.07

Latvia 0.57 0.78 0.54 0.75 0.01 0.04 0.01 -0.08

Lithuania 0.12 0.18 0.12 0.20 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07

Malta -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Poland 1.22 0.99 0.03 0.10

Slovakia 0.24 0.14 0.08 0.01

Slovenia 0.13 0.15 0.12 0.13 -0.02 -0.03 0.02 0.05

EU10 1.69 3.33 1.70 3.14 -0.08 -0.21

EU25 -3.93 -3.07 -4.26 -5.98 170 170








343

Wood manufacturing

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


2.1

2.15

2.2

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

2.45

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


11.6

11.8

12

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13

13.2

13.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Austria

Belgium

344

Wood manufacturing

0.67

0.675

0.68

0.685

0.69

0.695

0.7

0.705

0.71

0.715

0.72

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.27

0.275

0.28

0.285

0.29

0.295

0.3

0.305

0.31

0.315

0.32

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


2.45

2.5

2.55

2.6

2.65

2.7

2.75

2.8

2.85

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Product

ion


1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.09

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Product

ion


2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Cyprus

Czech Republic

345

Wood manufacturing

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

0.56

0.57

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Denmark

Estonia

346

Wood manufacturing

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Product

ion


0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Finland

France

347

Wood manufacturing

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.45

-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Germany

Greece

348

Wood manufacturing

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.39

0.4

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.47

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0.640.660.680.7

0.720.740.760.780.8

0.820.840.86

1995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.4

-0.35

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Hungary

Ireland

349

Wood manufacturing

0.835

0.84

0.845

0.85

0.855

0.86

0.865

0.87

0.875

0.88

0.885

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.18

0.185

0.19

0.195

0.2

0.205

0.21

0.215

0.22

0.225

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


90

95

100

105

110

115

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Product

ion


1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Product

ion


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Italy

Latvia

350

Wood manufacturing

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Lithuania

Luxembourg

351

Wood manufacturing

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


0.55

0.56

0.57

0.58

0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


14.515

15.516

16.517

17.518

18.519

19.520

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-2

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Malta

Netherlands

352

Wood manufacturing

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Poland

Portugal

353

Wood manufacturing

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Product

ion


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.38

0.4

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

Product

ion


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Slovakia

Slovenia

354

Wood manufacturing

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Product

ion


1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Product

ion


2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


Spain

Sweden

355

Wood manufacturing

0.708

0.71

0.712

0.714

0.716

0.718

0.72

0.722

0.724

0.726

1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004

Sel

f-su

ffic

iency

rat

io

0.3

0.305

0.31

0.315

0.32

0.325

0.33

0.335

Import

pen

etra

tion r

atio


76

78

80

82

84

86

88

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Em

plo

ymen

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Product

ion


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Shar

e of

GD

P

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Shar

e of

OECD

consu

mption



-4.5

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


United Kingdom

356

Appendix 1: Literature review

357

Appendix 1: Literature review 1 We have reviewed the literature on relocation in order to develop our understanding of: (a) The definition of the various terms associated with

relocation and what relocation is understood to mean; (b) The measures of relocation that have been used in the

literature and the data underpinning them; (c) The business and sector specific factors that are

associated with greater propensity for relocation; (d) The future trend of relocation; and of (e) The effects of relocation.

2 We consider each of these points in turn. A list of references is appended at the close of this appendix.

Definition of the terms associated with relocation 3 The relevant literature offers no single definition of the term “relocation”. In fact many of the papers reviewed do not use the term relocation at all. Instead, they discuss the issues using terms such outsourcing, offshoring, deindustrialisation and delocalisation. Not all authors use the same interpretation of these terms. 4 As a starting point, relocation is often associated with the concept of delocalisation, which refers to the cessation of a business activity followed by the reopening of that activity abroad or by sub-contracting the activity abroad (see, for example, Aubert and Sillard, 2005). This is in line with the definition of relocation adopted by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) in its 2005 opinion paper.23 However, the view taken by much of the literature is that such a definition of relocation would be too narrow and as noted by Boulhol and Fontagné (2005) it “hardly corresponds to any statistical category or any sizeable phenomenon”. 5 Instead, much of the literature defines the phenomenon in terms of the alternatives facing a firm with respect to organisational decisions about how to undertake a particular production process. These organisational decisions concern the use of outsourcing and offshoring, and it is with reference to these two terms that most of the literature discusses relocation. 6 The use of the terms outsourcing and offshoring has not been standardised in the literature. The most common definitions are those offered by UNCTAD (2004) and Pujals (2005). These papers define outsourcing in terms of whether the production process for intermediate inputs is internalised (kept in-house) or externalised


effects of company relocation”, CCMI/014 – CESE 851/2005, para 1.18.

(outsourced); the term offshoring is used to refer to cases where the production process in undertaken in a foreign country. 7 Table A1.1 below highlights the dimensions captured by these two terms. 8 Both forms of offshoring above are viewed as locating part of the value chain abroad and characterise the main focus of interest in the relocation literature. Such an interpretation does not require the offshored activities to have been first domestically located to be considered part of the relocation phenomenon. 9 The discussion above defines outsourcing and offshoring with reference to intermediate goods, i.e. not raw inputs or finished goods. There are however papers that do not make such a distinction. Drumetz (2005) which defines offshoring simply as the relocation of domestic business activity abroad and does not seem to be concerned with only intermediate inputs. A measure of relocation centred on intermediate goods is essentially only concerned with areas where the final production process occurs domestically. For example if a domestic car manufacturer were to offshore the manufacturing of engines this would be picked up as the engines are an intermediate component. If on the other hand the domestic manufacturer went out of business and demand was instead met by imports this would not be picked up as no intermediates are being imported. 10 Some papers use a slightly different terminology for the practices described above. For example, Geishecker (2005) and Amiti and Wei (2005) use “international outsourcing” to mean offshoring as defined above in the table. Other papers also seem to use the terms outsourcing and offshoring interchangeably where, typically, they are both interpreted, again, to mean what has been defined as offshoring in Table A1.1. 11 A related concept to the notions reviewed so far is that of deindustrialisation; this is the process by which a country or region moves from a manufacturing-based economy to a service economy. The EESC opinion in 2005 defines the concept more precisely on an absolute

Table A1.1: Outsourcing and offshoring

Internalised or externalised production Location of production

Internalised Externalised (outsourcing)

Home country Insourcing Outsourcing Foreign country

(offshoring) Captive offshoring Offshore

outsourcing Source: adapted from UNCTAD (2004) and Pujals (2005)


358

and relative basis.24 It defines absolute deindustrialisation as being associated with “a decline in employment, production, profitability and capital stock in industry, as well as a decline in exports of industrial goods and the emergence of persistent trade deficits in this sector.” Relative deindustrialisation is defined as “the decline in the share of industry in the economy, reflecting a process of structural change in the relationship between the industrial performance and the service sector.”

Measures of relocation 12 As noted by WTO (2005) a major problem with the above definitions of outsourcing and offshoring is that they do not reconcile easily with officially collected economic data. Data are typically collected at the sectoral level whereas relocation decisions are made at the firm level. It is difficult to make a link between import data and a management decision to substitute domestic production for an imported product. Another potential problem pointed out by Amiti and Wei (2005) is that the data may underestimate the value of offshoring as the cost of the imported products is likely to be lower than the cost of purchasing them domestically. Quantity data may be more preferable but they cannot be aggregated beyond individual products to give a useful picture at a sectoral level and in many cases such data are unavailable. 13 In the absence of direct data on the issue, studies have used proxies to get a sense of the magnitude of the relocation taking place. Several different proxies have been used. Given the lack of consensus on how relocation is defined, this is not surprising. 14 We now turn to present the indicators of relocation that have been used in the literature.

Input output tables 15 Outsourcing is typically defined in terms of intermediate inputs and hence input-output tables are frequently used to construct measures. Perhaps the most accurate source for measuring offshore outsourcing would be the use of import input-output tables and domestic input output tables. Import input-output tables give the imports of each industry from other industries abroad and domestic input output tables gives the value added by each domestic industry. 16 Using these data narrow and wide measures of outsourcing can be calculated. For each industry the narrow measure only looks at imports from that same industry abroad and is thus only concerned with the industry’s core activities being outsourced whereas the wide measure looks at imports from all foreign industries. Hijzen et al. (2005) calculate these narrow and wide measures as follows:


effects of company relocation”, CCMI/014 – CESE 851/2005, para 1.18.

(a) Narrow outsourcing of industry I is the ratio of the imported input purchases from industry I by industry Ito the value added of industry I.

(b) Wide outsourcing of industry I is the ratio of the sum of all inputs purchases by industry I to the value added of industry I.

17 The main shortcoming of such measures is that the data underpinning them, import and domestic input-output tables, are only produced at wide intervals, typically every five years. To compensate for this deficiency and to enable analysis requiring more observation many authors, including Amiti and Wei (2005), have made approximations of these measures using input-output tables combined with trade data. The standard input-output tables only detail the inputs of each industry and do not split them according to whether they are sourced domestically or from abroad. They use the standard tables by making an assumption that the ratio of imported intermediates to domestic intermediates is that same as the ratio between all imports in the sector to total consumption of the sector. 18 Consumption, perhaps more appropriately described as apparent consumption, is defined as domestic production plus imports less exports of the industry in question. The two different techniques are equivalent when the share of imported intermediate goods is the same as the share of all imported goods. 19 Other authors such as Geishecker (2005) and Falk and Wolfmayr (2005) take these measures further by disaggregating them by partner country, i.e. only looking at imports form selected countries of interest.

National accounting data 20 Other measures of relocation do not focus on just trade in intermediates and also look at national accounting data primarily involving imports and exports. 21 Drumetz (2005) for instance calculates an import penetration ratio and an external deficit ratio which indirectly measures how reliant domestic consumption is on domestic production. These measures are as follows: (a) Import penetration ratio is calculated as the ratio of

imports to the sum of domestic output and net imports (b) External deficit ratio is calculated as the ratio of net

exports to the sum of domestic output and net imports 22 The paper presumes that offshoring takes place in sectors where the import penetration ratio increases sharply, the external deficit ratio drop rapidly and the share of the sectors employment in total employment falls. Other studies that also use the import penetration ratio include Anderton and Brenton (1999) and Campa and Goldberg (1997). 23 Other studies such as Amiti and Wei also look directly at the trade balance (exports less imports) using imports as a proxy for outsourcing and exports as a measure of “insourcing”.


359

24 Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1999) amongst others look at the share of total output made by the industry in question but this is typically as a measure of deindustrialisation and it is examined how it is affected by other factors such as the trade balance.

Employment 25 In the same way Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1999) use the output share of an industry as a measure of deindustrialisation they also use the share of total employment of the industry as another proxy. Boulhol and Fontagné (2005) also use this measure in the same context. 26 Geishecker (2005), instead of looking at employment numbers, looks at the wage share of different industries and examines how they are affected by international outsourcing. 27 Aubert and Sillard (2005) notes the limitations of relying on employment trends to understand the process of relocation namely that movements in employment levels also reflect factors that bear no relation to relocation. These include changing competitive pressures, both internally and externally, productivity improvements or due to capital-labour substitution. 28 Data from the European Restructuring Monitor maintained by the European Monitoring Centre on Change can also be used to provide a measure of delocalisation. It has monitored press articles in the EU since 2002 for jobs lost and created due to company restructurings, and, of particular interest for this study, it records the number of jobs lost “when the activity stays within the same company, but is relocated to another location within the same country.” Papers such as Daudin and Levasseur (2005) and Pujals (2005) have used this data source as an indicator of the effect of relocation on employment. Galgoczi (2006) notes, rightly in our view, that the ERM database provides anecdotal evidence which cannot be seen as representative. It does not allow, therefore, for robust inferences on relocation to be drawn from it.

Foreign Direct Investment 29 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), investment in foreign assets, can be categorised as one of two types. The first type relates to investment in existing foreign companies (i.e. involving just a change of ownership) which is often unlikely to change the behaviour of the recipient company in a manner that leads it to export more to the country providing the FDI. The second type relates to investment that creates a new company or production capacity. This class is closer to the notion of relocation. 30 In exploring the use of FDI data to inform on relocation, the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) considers a further categorisation, vertical and horizontal FDI. Vertical FDI refers to the splitting up of the production process by a multinational with a view to locating each stage of production in the country where it is most cost effective. Horizontal FDI refers to the

circumstance where the multinational carries out the same activity in a number of different countries in order to serve the local markets and is not part of relocation. FDI data are not available at a disaggregated level to distinguish between horizontal and vertical FDI except through surveys which have been few and far between. PACE (2005) notes that “almost all empirical studies find that vertical FDI plays only a small role as a proportion of total FDI” and acknowledges that it is “difficult to draw simple conclusions on the economic effects of total FDI on the source country.” 31 A number of studies make use of FDI data in a discussion of relocation. We have not been persuaded, however, for the rationale for making use of such data; typically no rationale is offered other than that such data are available. On the other hand, critical assessment of the use of FDI data has strengthened our conviction that a substantial portion of FDI flowing out of EU is not connected to relocation activity and would therefore act a poor proxy. 32 In this respect we note the views set out in Drumetz (2005) commenting that “FDI statistics are not designed for measuring offshoring and it is difficult to use them for this purpose.” There will be FDIs carried out without domestic capacity having been closed down. Aubert and Sillard (2005) also note that it is not the case that whatever production may be generated from a particular FDI will be imported back to the country of origin or even, more generally, be “substituting” domestic production. The FDI might have been done for the purpose of expanding a market that is close to the destination country. Furthermore, the relevant investment may have a purely financial one (e.g. purchase of shares in the stock market of the destination country) and have little or nothing to do with decisions relating to production. 33 The assessment of the difficulties in inferring on relocation from FDI data is equally made by the Belgian Bureau fédéral du Plan (2005). 34

Factors associated with decision to relocate 35 Some studies on relocation have sought to shed light on what factors are associated with the decision by businesses to relocate and, more generally, on the characteristics of the firms/industries that are most likely to experience relocation. 36 In this area, UNCTAD (2004) is particularly helpful. The study cites the following features of services with a high probability for offshoring: (a) “no face-to-face servicing requirement; (b) high information content; (c) the work process is tele-commutable and Internet-

enabled; (d) high wage differentials with similar occupations in

destination country;


360

(e) low set-up barriers; and (f) low social networking requirements.”

37 A second report, the WTO (2005), gives the following factors as the major determinants of the decision of whether outsource an activity: (a) technical and institutional separability; (b) to what extent the task is standardized; (c) transaction and managerial costs within the firm

relative to outside suppliers; (d) production costs; and (e) the size of the market.

38 The decision of whether or not to offshore the activity adds additional relevant factors to the decision as there are additional variable managerial costs related to offshoring which may arise due to differences between the two countries involved in terms of language, laws, government regulations, currency, as well as the geographic distance. 39 Girma and Görg (2004) uses UK firm-level data from three manufacturing sectors (chemicals, mechanical and instrument engineering, and electronics) to investigate the impact of various factors on a firm’s propensity for outsourcing. This study does not seem to distinguish between offshore outsourcing and outsourcing to domestic producers. It finds that foreign owned firms use more outsourcing than domestic establishments when controlling for other factors (size and labour costs). This finding was robust under various parameterisations of their model. 40 Kakabadse and Kakabadse (2002) examines trends in outsourcing using a survey of 747 firms from Europe and USA. The study does not seem to distinguish between domestic outsourcing and offshore outsourcing. Table A1.2 below gives the details of the main reasons cited by European firms for outsourcing activities. 41 Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1997) studies the causes and implications of deindustrialisation. It concludes that deindustrialisation is not a negative phenomenon but a natural consequence of further growth in developed economies. The main reason cited for deindustrialisation is the faster growth of productivity in the manufacturing sector than in the services sector. The paper also concludes that North-South trade has played very little role in deindustrialisation.

Forecasts of relocation trends 42 We thought it a useful exercise to review what studies have been done on the likely evolution of the process of relocation; whether it is believed to be a process set to accelerate over the next decade and whether and how the direction in the flow of economic activity across the globe is likely to change. 43 We found but one study exploring this question from a quantitative perspective. Forrester (2004) provides detailed forecasts of European jobs moving offshore by

country and by sector for the period up to 2015. The report forecasts that about 495,000 jobs will be moved offshore from the EU-15 by 2010 and around 1,153,000 jobs will be lost by 2015. Of these losses the UK is expected to make up around two thirds of the total for the EU-15. Possible reasons mentioned for this high proportion falling on the UK are that each year India trains 2 million English speakers with technical and quantitative skills and the UK has a relatively more flexible labour market than the rest of the EU-15. In terms of a breakdown by job type the study predicts that of the losses by 2015 around 13 per cent will occur to information technology workers, 34 per cent to clerical workers, 29 per cent to business and management workers, 20 per cent in science and engineering, 3 per cent to public and governmental workers and 1 per cent to media workers.

Effects of relocation 44 One question that has been examined with some care by the literature relates to identifying the effects of relocation. The interest in this question is natural in the light of the political sensitivities and, more importantly, in the light of the conventional wisdom (not necessarily substantiated) that the process of relocation is likely to continue growing. The analysis of the effects of relocation has tended to focus on one of two dimensions: on the effect on employment levels in the source country and in the country of destination, and on the effect on productivity in the source economy. We will set out a brief summary of the relevant papers.

Effects of relocation on employment 45 Falk and Wolfmayr (2005) analyses the impact of international outsourcing on employment using manufacturing data for seven EU countries for the period 1995-2000. The study estimates labour demand equations

Table A1.2: Reasons for outsourcing

Reason Percentage of respondents selecting

response Cost discipline/control 59 Aim to achieve best practice 56 Improve service quality 41 Focus on core competencies 39 Enhance capability to develop new product/service

35

Access to new technology/skills 34 Reduce headcount 34 Reduce capital cost 32 Grow in-house expertise 30 Reduce transaction costs 27 Reduce promotion costs 23 Investment in technology 18 Enhance position in value chain 17 Enhance capability for change 17 Source: Kakabadse and Kakabadse (2002)


361

that show that imports from low-wage countries have a statistically significant effect on employment and that imports from industrialised countries have no effect on employment. Their calculations show that observed changes in EU outsourcing between 1995 and 2000 alone accounts for an employment reduction of 0.26 percentage points per year. 46 Stausss-Kahn (2003) constructs a model to show the effect of vertical specialisation (the share of imported inputs in production — the wide measure of outsourcing) on the share of unskilled workers in industry. The model is estimated using French industrial data for 14 manufacturing sectors over two periods 1977-1985 and 1985-1993. In these periods the share of unskilled workers in total employment decreased at 0.49 and 0.44 annual percentage points respectively. The level of vertical specialisation over these periods increased by 0.094 and 0.185 per cent per annum respectively. The paper estimates that the changes in vertical specialisation contributed from 11 to 15 per cent of the decline in the share of unskilled workers in French manufacturing employment for the 1977-1985 period and 25 per cent of decline in the 1985-1993 period. 47 Egger and Egger (2000) studies the employment effects of outsourcing to Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union on a panel of 20 Austrian industries for the period 1990-1998. The results indicate that a one per cent increase in outsourcing to the Eastern countries (in terms of gross production) generates a shift in relative employment of about 0.1 per cent in favour of the high-skilled labour segment. The authors estimate that the effect of this outsourcing is responsible for about one quarter of the change in relative employment in favour of the high-skilled. 48 The OECD Employment Outlook 2005 report looks at the trade-adjustment costs in OECD labour markets. Its main findings for the effects of international trade on labour markets include the following: (a) The most important long-run effects of international

trade and investment on labour markets have been to raise average wages and induce shifts in the sectoral and occupational composition of employment. The report finds no theories or evidence to suggest that increased international trade affects aggregate employment, but they find it likely that growing trade with low-wage nations has contributed to increasing wage inequality in many OECD countries.

(b) Increases in international competition are associated with increased job displacement but it is noted that trade is only one of many drivers of job turnover and structural change.

(c) Adjustment costs appear to be higher for trade-displaced workers than for other job losers as they are slower to be reemployed and experience larger wage losses once reemployed.

49 Amiti and Wei (2005) considers whether international service outsourcing has reduced jobs in the UK. The

authors use UK data from 1995-2001 from 69 manufacturing industries and nine service industries and conclude that outsourcing does not have a negative affect on manufacturing employment at the sectoral level. The same result is found for the services sector. This suggests that those individuals who lose their jobs due to outsourcing tend to find another job within the same industry classification. Another finding of this study is that job growth at the sectoral level is not negatively related to outsourcing. 50 Geishecker (2005) analyses the effect of international outsourcing to Central and Eastern Europe on the relative demand for manual workers in Germany using data from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries over the period 1991-2000. The paper combines trade and input-output data to disentangle international outsourcing and trade in final goods and differentiate between the effects of outsourcing in different international regions. Using a narrow measure of outsourcing and controlling for other factors they find that international outsourcing to Central and Eastern Europe has lowered the manual workers wage bill share by 2.7 percentage points between 1991 and 2000 which makes up 57 per cent of the decline in manual workers wage bill share over the period. 51 Boulhol (2003) develops a model inspired by that of Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1998) where relocation is found to be closely linked to productivity gains. The study makes use of data for 16 OECD countries between 1970 and 2002. The results of this study reinforce those of Rowthorn and Ramaswamy (1998) namely that deindustrialisation results primarily from a natural process of higher productivity gains in industry. The paper’s estimates suggest that international trade has accounted for no more than 15 per cent of the observed magnitude of deindustrialisation. This, in turn, is driven by the increase in imports of the South (poorer countries) where it is estimated that a one per cent of GDP increase in imports from the South causes a relative impact on relative employment of -2.8 per cent.

Effects of relocation on productivity 52 Girma and Görg (2004), as previously mentioned, looks at the effects of outsourcing (domestic and offshore) on domestic and foreign owned firms using UK establishment level data. The study finds that outsourcing increases both labour productivity and TFP (total factor productivity) and that the increase is found to be more pronounced in foreign owned firms. 53 In a follow-up with similar results study, Görg et al. (2005) investigate the impact of international outsourcing on productivity using plant level data for Irish manufacturing from the Irish Economy Expenditure Survey for the period 1990-1998. Econometric analysis suggests that there are productivity gains to exporting firms which engage in the international outsourcing of intermediaries. The study finds a one percentage point increase in outsourcing intensity increases productivity at the plant level of foreign multinationals by 1.7 percent


362

and of domestic firms by 0.9 per cent. A possible reason for this advantage of multinational firms from international outsourcing suggested by the paper is that multinational firms are part of international production networks and possess better knowledge on where to procure competitively priced inputs.

Summary: findings on the effect of relocation 54 The studies exploring the effects of relocation make use of different data; different sectors, countries and time periods are considered. Against this backdrop, it is perhaps not surprising that no consensus is reached on the effects of relocation on employment in general. While some authors have found relocation to be associated with falls in employment levels, a set of other authors suggest relocation does not impact on the numbers that are employed but does have an effect on the characterisation of those that are employed. In particular, one result echoed by several papers is that relocation shifts the composition of employment towards the higher skilled workers. It also appears to be a finding emerging from the literature, that relocation widens the gap between the wage levels in the source country. 55 Perhaps more surprising is that the literature does seem to come to an agreement on the positive effects of relocation on the productivity in the source country.

References Amiti, M. and S.Wei (2005) “Fear of outsourcing: is it justified?”, Economic Policy, April 2005, pp. 307-347 Anderton, B. and P. Brenton (1999) “Outsourcing and low-skilled workers in the UK”, Bulletin of Economic Research, vol. 51:4, pp. 267-285 Aubert, P. and P. Sillard (2005) “Délocalisations et réductions d’effectifs dans l’industrie française”, G 2005-03, Direction des Études et Synthèses Économiques, Institut national de la Statistique et des Études Économiques. Boulhol, H. (2004) “What is the impact of international trade on deindustrialisation in OECD countries?”, Flash CDC IXIS Capital Markets, pp. 1-23 Boulhol, H. and L. Fontagné (2005) “Deindustrialisation and the fear of relocations in the industry”, working paper version 13 July 2005 Campa, J. and L. Goldberg (1997) “The evolving external orientation of manufacturing industries: evidence from four countries”, NBER working paper 5919 Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (2005) “Relocation of economic activities abroad and European Economic development” Daudin, G. and S. Levasseur (2005) “Offshore relocations and emerging countries’ competition: measuring the effect on French employment”, in Competition from emerging countries international relocation and their impacts on employment, OFCE, pp. 4-26

Directorate-General for Employment and Social Affairs, European Commission (2004) “Globalisation and labour markets: a European perspective”, Chapter 5 in Employment in Europe 2004, pp.187-227 Directorate-General for Employment and Social Affairs, European Commission (2005) “Employment in Europe 2005: Recent trends and prospects” Drumetz, F (2005) “Offshoring”, Banque de France Bulletin Digest, No. 133 Egger, H. and P. Egger (2000) “Outsourcing and skill specific employment in a small economy: Austria and the fall of the iron curtain”, Institut f r Volkswirtschaftslehre, working paper no. 0024 European Economic and Social Committee (2005) “The scope and effects of company relocations” Egger, P. et al. (2003) “Sectoral adjustment of employment: the impact of outsourcing and trade at the micro level”, IZA discussion paper no. 921 Falk, M. and B. Koebel (2002) “Outsourcing, imports and labour demand”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol.104, no. 4, pp. 567-586 Falk, M. and Y. Wolfmayr (2005) “The impact of international outsourcing on employment: empirical evidence from EU countries”, Austrian Institute of Economic Research WIFO working paper Feenstra, R. and G. Hanson (1996) “Globalization, outsourcing and wage inequality”, The American Economic Review, vol. 86, no. 2, pp. 240-245 Gaffard, J. and M. Quéré (2005) “Relocation: What matters? Competition or/and a new policy mix”, in Competition from emerging countries international relocation and their impacts on employment, OFCE, pp. 62-78Galgoczi, B. (2006) “What is relocation. How to measure it and how extensive the phenomenon appears on the European scene?”, presentation at the European Economic and Social Committee hearing on sectoral relocation, 4 May 2006. Geishecker, I. (2002) “Outsourcing and the demand for low-skilled labour in German manufacturing: new evidence”, DIW Berlin discussion paper 313 Geishecker, I. (2005) “Does outsourcing to Central and Eastern Europe really threaten manual workers’ jobs in Germany?”, Free University Berlin and University of Nottingham working paper Girma, S. and H. Görg (2004) “Outsourcing, foreign ownership, and productivity: evidence from UK establishment-level data”, Review of International Economics, vol.12, no.5, pp. 817-832 Görg, H. et al. (2005) “International outsourcing, foreign ownership, exporting and productivity: An empirical investigation with plant level data”, working paper version January 2005


363

Goux, D. and E. Maurin (2000) “The decline in demand for unskilled labor: An empirical analysis method and its application to France”, Review of Economic and Statistics, vol. 82, no. 4, pp. 596-607 Hijzen, A. et al. (2005) “International outsourcing and the skill structure of labour demand in the United Kingdom”, Economic Journal, vol. 115, pp. 860-878 Kakabadse, A. and N. Kakabadse (2002) “Trends in outsourcing: contrasting USA and Europe”, European Management Journal, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 189-198 Kirkegaard (2005) “Outsourcing and offshoring: Pushing the European model over the hill, rather than off the cliff!”, Institute for International Economics working paper WP 05-1 Marin, D. (2004) “A nation of poets and thinkers – less so with Eastern enlargement? Austria and Germany”, University of Munich discussion paper 2004-06 Marin, D. (2005) “A new international division of labour in Europe: Outsourcing and offshoring to Eastern Europe”, University of Munich discussion paper September 2005 Mathieu, C. and H. Sterdyniak (2005) “International relocation and deindustrialisation: some French perspectives”, in Competition from emerging countries international relocation and their impacts on employment, OFCE, pp. 50-61 OECD (2005) “Trade adjustment costs in OECD labour markets: A mountain or a molehill?”, Chapter 1 in OECD Employment Outlook 2005, pp. 23-72 Parker, A. et al. (2004) “Two-speed Europe: Why 1 million jobs will move offshore”, Forrester Research Pujals, G. (2005) “Offshore outsourcing in the EU financial services industry”, in Competition from emerging countries international relocation and their impacts on employment, OFCE, pp. 27-49 Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1997) “Deindustrialization – Its causes and implications”, IMF Staff Paper, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 18-41 Rowthorn, R. and R. Ramaswamy (1999) “Growth, trade and deindustrialization”, IMF Staff Paper, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 18-41 Rubalcaba, L. (2005) “Business Services in the Global Economy: New Evidence from a European Perspective” DG Internal Market and Services, European Commission, (mimeo) Strauss-Kahn, V. (2003) “The Role of Globalization in the Within-Industry Shift Away from Unskilled Workers in France”, NBER Working Paper No. 9716 UNCTAD (2004) “The offshoring of corporate service functions: the next global shift?”, Chapter 4 in World Investment Report 2004: The shift towards services, pp.148-180

WTO (2005) “Offshoring: More fears and hopes than facts?”, Chapter C in Volume 3 of World Trade Report 2005, pp. 265-301

Appendix 2: Mapping of sectors across datasets

364

Appendix 2: Mapping of sectors across datasets 1 The tables in this appendix map the sectors considered to the categories defined by the various datasets drawn on.


365

Sector SBS COMEXT Input-Output tables ERM

FDI and domestic

investment

Aerospace

DM.35.30 - Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft

DM.35.30 - Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft

DM.35.00 - Manufacture of other transport equipment

Aerospace

Motor vehicles and other transport equipment

Automotive

DM.34.00 - Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers



Automotive


Cement

DI.26.50 - Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster

DI.26.50 - Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster

DI.26.00 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

Cement N.A

DI.26.60 - Manufacture of articles of concrete, plaster and cement

DI.26.60 - Manufacture of articles of concrete, plaster and cement

Chemicals

DG.24.00 (except 24.4) Chemicals and chemical products

DG.24.00 (except 24.4) Chemicals and chemical products

DG.24.00 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products

Chemical



DJ.28.00 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products





DK.29.00 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment




DL.31.00 - Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.




DL.32.00 - Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment




DL.33.00 - Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks




Notes: 1. COMEXT data mapped from CN8 based on correspondence tables to NACE 2. ERM sectors are derived from additional information provided.


366


FDI and domestic

investment

Financial services

J .65.00 - Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding



Financial services


J .66.00 - Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security




J .67.00 - Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation




Food

DA.15.00 - Manufacture of food products and beverages



Food


Glass

DI.26.10 - Manufacture of glass and glass products

DI.26.10 - Manufacture of glass and glass products

DI.26.00 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

Glass N.A

Iron and steel

DJ.27.10 - Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys

DJ.27.10 - Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys

DJ.27.00 - Manufacture of basic metals

Iron and steel DJ.27.00 - Manufacture of basic metals


K .70.00 - Real estate activities





K .71.00 - Renting of machinery and equipment




K .72.00 - Computer and related activities




K .73.00 - Research and development




K .74.00 - Other business activities






367


FDI and domestic

investment


DB.18.00 - Manufacture of apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur




Textiles, leather and clothing

DC.19.00 - Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of footwear



Non-ferrous metals

DJ.27.40 - Manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals

DJ.27.40 - Manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals


Non-ferrous metals


Paper and pulp

DE.21.00 - Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products



Paper and pulp N.A

Pharmaceuticals

DG.24.40 - Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals and botanical products

DG.24.40 - Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals and botanical products


Pharmaceuticals


Plastics DH.25.20 - Manufacture of plastic products

DH.25.20 - Manufacture of plastic products

DH.25.00 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

Plastics

DH.25.00 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

Rail equipment

DM.35.20-Manufacture of railway and tramway locomotives and rolling stock



Rail-equipment


Shipbuilding N.A

DM.35.10 - Building and repairing of ships and boats

DM.35.00 - Manufacture of other transport equipment

Shipbuilding


Textiles DB.17.00 - Manufacture of textiles

DB.17.00 - Manufacture of textiles

DB.17.00 - Manufacture of textiles

Textiles Textiles, leather and clothing

Wood

DD.20.00 - Manufacture of wood and of products



Wood N.A
