a step in right direction bare ground class from olson world ecosystem land cover and from nasa...

A Step In Right DirectionA Step In Right Direction

Bare ground class from Olson World Ecosystem Land Cover

And from NASA MODIS MOD12 product

W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008

Comparison of Modeled and Measured PMComparison of Modeled and Measured PM2.52.5 Concentrations at Odessa, Texas, Dec. 15, 2003Concentrations at Odessa, Texas, Dec. 15, 2003

Left panel with Olsen land surface data; right panel with NASA MODIS land data: measured (dots) modeled (solid lines) N.B. different scales


ASSESS CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON AQASSESS CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON AQ Vegetation in May 2007 vs. average during same period from 2000 Vegetation in May 2007 vs. average during same period from 2000

through 2006.through 2006.

Courtesy Global Inventory Modeling & Mapping Studies Group NASA GSFCCourtesy Global Inventory Modeling & Mapping Studies Group NASA GSFC


Potential Model ApplicationsPotential Model Applications

• Air & Highway Safety

• Monitor Regional AQ

• Identify Airborne PM Sources

• Evaluate Soil Contamination Control Policies

• Assess AQ in Future Climates


February 2007 Forecast VerificationFebruary 2007 Forecast Verification


MONITORING REGIONAL AQ

Model Simulations & Forecasts

Fill gaps in Monitoring Network


ISOLATE DUST SOURCE IN MODELISOLATE DUST SOURCE IN MODELTO ASSESS SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONSTO ASSESS SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS


CLIMATE CHANGE & AIR QUALITYCLIMATE CHANGE & AIR QUALITYPM sources in drier future vs sources in 2003PM sources in drier future vs sources in 2003Scenario: The December 15-17, 2003 Storm Scenario: The December 15-17, 2003 Storm

Drier future 2003


Number of hours of PMNumber of hours of PM2.52.5 exceeding daily exceeding daily standard (65 standard (65 g/mg/m3 3 ) among 40 sites. ) among 40 sites.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Number of hours

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

Current climate Drier climate Wetter climate

N.B. Effective Dec 17, 2006, standard is 35 mg/m3N.B. Effective Dec 17, 2006, standard is 35 mg/m3W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008

PMPM2.52.5 difference at 40 sites: drier future vs. difference at 40 sites: drier future vs. 2003 (pink dots @ Channel View, TX)2003 (pink dots @ Channel View, TX)


Drought Dust Health Drought Dust Health

• Inhaled PM leads to heart failure, …“Ambient particulate matter accelerates coagulation…” Mutlu et al., 2007

• “Inhalation of fine, airborne particulate matter (PM) has serious chronic human health effects and is a major cause of premature death worldwide.” Moreno et al., 2006

• “Coachella, California, residents’ cardiovascular mortality and heart rate variability are elevated due to high airborne PM,” Ostro et al., 2000


Image by Jacques Descloitres, Image by Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response TeamMODIS Rapid Response Team NASA GSFC, for NASA GSFC, for Natural Hazards Natural Hazards http://naturalhazards.nasa.govhttp://naturalhazards.nasa.gov

California wildfires stripped the ground of vegetation. Exposed soil and overlying ash are vulnerable to winds, as in this false color Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image. A red plume of dust and ash blows over the Pacific Ocean and San Clemente Island. Newly burned areas, vegetation, water & clouds. Plume clearly comes from the burn scar near San Diego. Terra satellite image 27/11/03 -- 250 meters per pixel


http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/

http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov/

http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/

http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/

http://terra.nasa.gov/

Valley FeverValley Fever• CAUSE: SOIL-DWELLING FUNGI

• FUNGUS RESPONDS TO WEATHER & CLIMATE

• INHALING SPORES MAY LEAD TO INFECTION

– FLU=LIKE SYMPTOMS (fever, cough, etc.)

– MAY MOVE FROM LUNGS TO OTHER PARTS OF BODY

• REGIONAL MORTALITY / MORBIDITY

– 2004 SEVERE CASES: AZ = 3,665 USA = 6,056

– DEATHS: 6-10% of reported cases (in AZ)

Adapted from A. Comrie


Valley Fever Endemic ZoneValley Fever Endemic Zone

Hector and Laniado-Laborin, 2002

From A. Comrie, 2000


Meningitis in AfricaMeningitis in Africa

Meningococcal meningitis occurs worldwide but especially so in dry Sub-Saharan Africa: the "African meningitis belt“, including Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Chad, Cameroon….


Meningitis in AfricaMeningitis in Africa• Bacterial meningitis

Acute bacterial meningitis can follow when respiratory passages are irritated by dust or when bacteria, carried with windblown dust, are inhaled, enter the bloodstream and migrate to the brain and spinal cord.

• A meningococcal meningitis pandemic beginning in 1996 resulted in some 300,000 cases reported to WHO

Countries Cases Deaths Fatality Rate (in 1997, WHO)

Burkina Faso 21,504 2,426 11.3%

Ghana 18,551 1,403 7.6%

Mali 10,960 1,106 10.1%

Total 59,461 6,047 10.2%


Transcontinental transport of microorganisms

Kellogg, Griffin, 2005:

Fungal diseases, affecting crops like sugarcane and bananas, have appeared in the Caribbean within a few days after an outbreak in Africa.

Bacterial pathogens of rice and beans in the Caribbean air samples, as well as those that cause disease in fruit and a variety of trees, from African air samples.

Foot and Mouth Disease virus (endemic to sub-Saharan Africa) may be carried by African dust; links between dust storms that passed over Great Britain and outbreaks of the disease.


RECENT INTERNATIONAL STEPSRECENT INTERNATIONAL STEPS

• The World Climate Research Programme and the Global Atmospheric Watch (WWRP/GAW) Sand and Dust Storm (SDS) Project was established in September 2004. Purpose: achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustained observations and modelling of sand and dust storms in order to improve monitoring of these storms, increase understanding of storm genesis, and enhance prediction capabilities

• International Review of the draft science strategy & implementation plan -- in Barcelona, Spain, November 2007


PROPOSED PAN-AM DUST CENTRE for the

WMO International Sand & Dust Storm Warning System

Atmospheric Observations & Modeling

Simulations & Experimental Forecasts

Surface SourceMapping & Monitoring

Critical Sources

User & Client BasePractitioner, Manager, Policy MakerPractitioner, Manager, Policy MakerRegion>Country>State>Community

AQ, Health, Transp., Ag.

Information PortalPublic & Partner

ISDSWS ISDSWS

Public AccessPublic Access


Dust Storm Modeling:Dust Storm Modeling:

Status and OpportunitiesStatus and Opportunities

• Models tested in N. America, Mediterranean, Africa, Middle-East – can be used worldwide

• WMO International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System marshals forces to reduce dust emissions & consequences of climate change

• New NASA satellites (A-Train) and NOAA operational weather forecast system (NMM) can improve global dust source inventories and forecasts


a step in right direction bare ground class from olson world ecosystem land cover and from nasa...

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