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โดย ดร.อมรเทพ จาวะลา

Public

เรือ่ง: ผลกระทบคา่เงินบาทต่ออตุสาหกรรมไทย

เสวนา Morning Talk ครัง้ท่ี 4

ภายใต ้โครงการ Intelligence Unit ปี 2562

วนัองัคารท่ี 24 กนัยายน 2562

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สงครามการค้าไม่จบง่ายๆ

2

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การส่งออกแย่แทบทุกตลาด

3

*Domestic exports; non-oil

Source: CEIC data

-0.5

-8.6

-6.0

-8.6

-4.4

-1.3

-12.8

-2.9

6.7

-3.5-4.1

-7.0

-2.3

-5.1 -5.1

1.3

3.0

-2.4

8.7

-0.5

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

China Indonesia Japan South Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore* Thailand Vietnam Taiwan

H1/2019: Import/export growth (USD term)

Export H1/2019 Import H1/2019

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ตลาดแย่ หรือโลกก าลงัเปลีย่น

4

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เราก้าวทนัเทคโนโลยหีรือไม่

5

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เงนิบาทแข็งค่าเทยีบดอลลาร์สหรัฐ และสกลุส าคญัอ่ืนๆ...แต่บาทไม่ใช่เพิง่จะมาแข็งค่า

FX(%YTD*)

*As of September 9, 2019

Source: Bloomberg

FX(%change from 12 Sep 2008*)

Source: Bloomberg

Country SpotThai Baht THB 13.2

Singapore Dollar SGD 3.9

Taiwanese Dollar TWD 2.6

Hong Kong Dollar HKD -0.5

Chinese Renminbi CNY -4.0

South Korean Won KRW -7.1

Philippine Peso PHP -9.6

Peruvian Sol PEN -10.8

Malaysian Ringgit MYR -17.4

Chilean Peso CLP -25.6

Indonesian Rupiah IDR -32.6

Indian Rupee INR -36.1

Hungarian Forint HUF -44.2

Mexican Peso MXN -45.8

Russian Ruble RUB -61.1

Turkish Lira TRY -78.4

Argentine Peso ARS -94.5

%change

*As of September 9, 2019

Country

Thai Baht THB 6.2

Russian Ruble RUB 6.0

Indonesian Rupiah IDR 2.2

Philippine Peso PHP 1.5

Peruvian Sol PEN 1.0

Mexican Peso MXN 0.6

Hong Kong Dollar HKD -0.1

Malaysian Ringgit MYR -1.1

Singapore Dollar SGD -1.3

Taiwanese Dollar TWD -1.6

Chilean Peso CLP -2.6

Indian Rupee INR -2.7

Chinese Renminbi CNY -3.5

South Korean Won KRW -6.3

Hungarian Forint HUF -6.4

Turkish Lira TRY -7.4

Argentine Peso ARS -32.5

%ytd

6

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USD/THB Outlook 2019

30.00

- US rate cuts

- Thai rate on hold

- Trade war

- Tourism rebounds

- Political stability

- Oil prices drop

33.00

- Maintaining US rate

- Thai rate cuts

- No trade war

- Tourist arrivals drop

- Political instability

- Oil prices jump up

เงนิบาทจะไปทางไหน

7

“Public”

บาทแข็งมาจากปัจจบัต่างประเทศ...ระวงักระแสการเงนิโลกเปลีย่นทิศเหมือนปี 2013

8

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

Sep/08 Sep/09 Sep/10 Sep/11 Sep/12 Sep/13 Sep/14 Sep/15 Sep/16 Sep/17 Sep/18

FX (USD/THB)

Source: Bloomberg

USD/THB

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ถ้าเศรษฐกจิโลกด ีต่อให้บาทแข็งกส่็งออก แต่ถ้าแย่ ต่อให้บาทอ่อนกส่็งไม่ออก

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Current Account Balance by Categories

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Trade Balance Services Balances Primary Income Secondary Income5 Years (2014-2018)

Million USD

Source: BOT

Current Account Balance vs FX(USD/THB inverted)

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun

-19

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

Current Account :Right FX(USD/THB):Left

USD/THBMil.USD

การเกนิดุลบัญชีเดนิสะพดัสูง มผีลให้บาทแข็ง

10

“Public”

เงนิร้อนท าบาทแข็ง...แต่อาจจะไม่ใช่แล้ว

11

“Public”

แล้วท าไมเกนิดุล...กเ็พราะเราหยุดลงทุน

12

𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑥 −𝑚

𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐺 + 𝑆

𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑥 −𝑚

(1)

(2)

= 𝐶 + 𝐺 + 𝑆

𝑥 −𝑚 = 𝑆 − 𝐼

Current Account Balance = Saving − Investment gap

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เศรษฐกจิไทยเน้นภาคต่างประเทศ การลงทุนต ่า ขณะทีจ่ีนเขาปรับโครงสร้างกนัแล้ว

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

19

931

994

19

951

996

19

971

998

19

992

000

20

012

002

20

032

004

20

052

006

20

072

008

20

092

010

20

112

012

20

132

014

20

152

016

20

172

018

Exports/GDP Consumption/GDP GFCF/GDP

Share of Exports, Private Consumption, and Investment to GDP (%)

Thailand China

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Exports/GDP Consumption/GDP GFCF/GDP

Source: CEIC Data Source: CEIC Data

% %

13

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*exclude interbankSource: HAVER

สินเช่ือเร่ิมแผ่ว แต่กด็กีว่าในช่วง 5 ปีก่อน

1.82.5 2.4

-6.3

4.8

2.2 2.0

0.6

1.72.6 2.8

8.3

9.3

2.2 2.2

1.7

1.3 1.61.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Loan* Growth to GDP Growth (nominal term)

Loan Growth: Left GDP Growth (current prices): Left Loan growth /GDP growth (times)

%,yoytimes

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เม่ือบาทแข็งค่า ธุรกจิใดโดนผลกระทบบ้าง

Impacts of Thai baht appreciation on businesses/industries

Positive

High import content and mainly on the domestic market▪ Steel products▪ Animal feed▪ Industrial machinery especially

construction business▪ Chemical fertilizers and pesticide▪ Medical instrument

Lower service cost due to baht appreciation, and mainly on the domestic market▪ Transport services▪ Oil stations

Slight-Moderate

Relatively high-tech products, high qualities and high import content▪ Printed circuit boards▪ Integrated circuits▪ Hard disk driveHigh import content and moderate pricing power (moderate-high margin)▪ Canned seafood (tuna)- exporters▪ JewelryLow import content and moderate pricing power (moderate-high margin)▪ Processed chicken/Sugar▪ Cassava products▪ Food flavoring and sauces▪ Canned and processed vegetable/fruit juices▪ Appliance products▪ Polymers

SevereLow import content, high competition (low margin)▪ Rice exporters (inc. Rice mills)▪ Rubber smoked sheet▪ Block rubber▪ Rubber gloves(low technology/made from

natural rubber)Labor-intensive, high competition (low margin)▪ Frozen shrimp/ Frozen sea food▪ Leather & garment products (low-end

market)▪ Furniture/toys▪ Footwear

15

Lower income of consumers / employees in major industries

- Primary rubber products- Electronic products- Hotel business - etc

Other Impacts (excluding direct export and service)

Businesses/Consumers/entrepreneurs/investment have clearly affected

Severely impacts on small and medium-sized exporters

- Rice products - Primary rubber products - Frozen shrimps/ frozen fish- Animal or vegetable fats and oils- Beauty or make up preparations, soap and preparations for the

care of skin - Furniture

- Bus service business and travel servicesRelated tourism business (Non-hotel)

Investments- Especially investment in the production of export products that

use domestic raw materials at a medium - high level

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โดยเฉพาะม่ือบาทแข็งเทยีบกบัเงนิหยวน

Decreasing in The Value of Funds Transferred for Condominium Purchases, especially China (43% of total fund transferred)

Note: The value of funds transferred for condominium purchases by non-residents is estimated from (1) the amount of foreign currencies sold for down payments or purchases of condominiums and (2) the amount of funds withdrawn from non-residents baht-denominated accounts for condominium purchases. Source: Bank of Thailand.

Q1/19

-16.3% (yoy)

Yuan Weakening Against the Baht, Trade War and Chinese Economic Slowdown Hamper Thai Exports

Yuan Weakening Against the Baht More Than Other Country (%Change LCY/RMB)

Source: Bloomberg, data as of September 10, 2019 (off-shore)

% YTD

Thailand Would Gain More Chinese Tourist due to Hong Kong Protest but Devalued Yuan is The Threat

Thai Top 10 Export Goods to China

High

Medium - Low

Rubber Product Chemical

Rubber Cassava Wood

(High Export Share to China and Falling Export in 1H2019)

Integrated Circuit Computer and part

Fruit

Plastic Resin Refine fuel

Chinese Tourist Outbound (m. persons)

- 4.9%

- 3.3%

11.7%

29.1%

Impact on hotel in major destination

Source: MOTS and CEIC

Source: MOC and Assessment by Research

43%

16.4%

22.3%

16

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โอกาสการลงทุนของไทย

Construction Materials Real Estate

24

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Thank

YOU

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Important Notice

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