accelerating the low-carbon transition: a view from india · strategic analysis needed to evaluate...

Accelerating the low-carbon transition: A view from India

AMBUJ SAGAR

Vipula and Mahesh Chaturvedi Professor of Policy Studies Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

& Visiting Scholar (2015-16)

Kennedy School of Govt. and Paulson School of Engg. and App. Sci., Harvard & Tata Center for Technology and Design, MIT

International Energy Workshop 2016 University College Cork , Ireland

Accelerating the low-C transition

•  Focus on developing countries since they will account for most of energy demand growth in next few decades

•  These countries have to balance climate and developmental challenges – both are significant and urgent. Tension vs synergy?

•  Their economic, institutional and capability context makes this a particularly challenging problem

Accelerating the low-carbon transition_________________________________________

The key role of technological innovation

•  New and/or improved technologies important part of solution

•  Need to accelerate the adoption and diffusion – at scale - of low-carbon technologies

•  Requires availability of technologies suited to local use context at affordable cost; capabilities to effectively deploy at scale in developing countries


The energy and climate context for developing countries


[Based on UNDP; IEA data]

Energy use and ‘development’ linked


Energy and climate challenges in DCs (1)

[Source: WDI database]




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Energy and climate challenges in developing countries (DCs) (3)




[Source: IEA Energy Access database]


WAY FORWARD (1) Framing the problem:

clarifying objectives and strategies


Choice of solution and strategy depends, inter alia, on priority and weight among objectives

•  Clean cooking energy –  Health protection and climate mitigation

•  Indian solar mission –  Energy access, energy security, climate mitigation and industrial

development

Strategic analysis needed to evaluate high-potential areas, technological options, and deployment pathways – in national context


WAY FORWARD (2) Enhancing implementation


Effective implementation of new technologies

•  Requires addressing not just technology dimensions (availability and operation) but also economics, finance, markets/demand, and policy (i.e., supply, demand, and facilitation)

•  Needs vary across –  Stage of technology cycle for any technology –  Across national contexts for any technology –  Across technologies

•  Customization of implementation pathway necessary

•  Local human, organizational, and institutional capabilities become critical


Technology absorption, adaptation & demonstration: Proof of applicability and utility

• Technology absorbed and adapted for local use conditions and user preferences

•  Manufacturers and early adopters willing to consider technology because of its technical performance and/or economic feasibility

[Mathur and Sagar (2015)]


• Technology absorption/adaptation -  Suzlon licensing arrangement with Südwind for wind

turbines; BHEL licensing from Siemens for supercritical boilers

-  Moser Baer technology partnership with Applied Materials for solar PV; assistance from TI for LED heat sink design and integration

-  MNC subsidiaries adapting refrigerators for local conditions -  Super-efficient fan program

•  Suitability of options –  BEE voluntary appliance label program –  Tailoring of targets in industrial energy efficiency program

Technology absorption, adaptation & demonstration: Proof of applicability and utility


Early market: Proof of deployment model(s)

• Establishment of commercial potential

•  Standardization of technical designs, operation of technology

•  Exploration of financing approaches, contracting procedures…



Early market: Proof of deployment model(s)

•  Illustration of deployment approaches –  Suzlon’s captive generation/buy-back projects

•  Policies to help create markets/exploit niche markets –  Capital subsidy for wind-turbine; Feed-in tariff for solar –  Performance risk guarantee for commercial energy-efficient equipment loans (with GEF)

•  Support for business and technical activities –  CLASP and SEAD assistance for designing energy-efficient appliance labeling and standards program –  Japanese assistance for design of RFPs for supercritical boiler tenders


Large-scale adoption

• Technology established in market; deployment models standardized

•  Manufacturing at scale; supply chains; full operations and maintenance support Policy support for large-scale diffusion (e.g., standards, regulations) Capital for establishing manufacturing plants



‘Technology development and transfer’ to assist low-carbon transition


World Development Indicators database; UNESCO

International technology capability landscape – R&D


Husar and Best (2013)

International tech capability landscape – energy patents


Enhancing the global technology pipeline*

[Source: IEA ERD&D database

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Assisting implementation:

•  Provision of suitable finance, technical, and other support (best practices, lessons, etc.), appropriate to technology, stages of technology cycle and local context

•  Strengthening national capacity on multiple dimensions (actors, linkages, and institutions) -  technical, business model development, design of policy and

financial support instruments, human resources – multiple actors on both sides

-  Coordination between various activities and actors for various stages of tech cycle, e.g., CIC approach

-  Strategic approach to climate technology (prioritization and implementation pathways)


Assisting implementation (contd.):

•  New forms of international collaboration for technology development and deployment (e.g., international climate R&D facilities)

•  Enhanced R&D and deployment programs by major industrial powers to facilitate international flows of technology through enhanced availability (and lower costs) of low-C technologies


[UNFCCC 2015]

Status in UNFCCC (and related fora):

•  Article 10 in Paris Agreement -  Shared long –term vision -  Establishment of ‘technology framework’ -  Collaborative approaches to R&D -  Facilitating access to technology, in particular for early stages of

the technology cycle -  Strengthen cooperative action on technology development and

transfer at different stages of the technology cycle… balance between support for mitigation and adaptation

-  Global stocktaking


Status in UNFCCC (and related fora) (contd.):

•  ‘Mission Innovation’ -  Doubling of public clean energy R&D by 20 major economies -  ‘Breakthrough Energy Coalition’ to increase private finance -  Sharing of information to enhance transparency and improve

decision-making among stakeholders

•  Climate Technology Center and Network (implementation arm of the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism, intended to provide implementation planning support to developing countries) grossly under-funded -  FY 2016 budget $18.6 million -  No funds from the UNFCCC; dependency on bilateral donors


To sum up:

•  Developing countries faced with urgent need to manage climate and developmental challenges

•  Technology will play an important role in a low-carbon transition (while helping address developmental challenges)

•  Requires large-scale deployment of suitable technologies effectively and in short time frame -  Availability of affordable options -  Strategic, implementation, and coordination capabilities key but

often missing (or insufficient)

•  International efforts could play an important role in this process – but will need to go beyond present approach.


Comments/Suggestions/Questions:

[email protected]


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