activity-based mobility modeling: overview and research topics school... · 2013-07-16 · outline...
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Activity-based mobility modeling:
overview and research topics
Theo Arentze
Urban Planning Group
Eindhoven University of Technology,
The Netherlands
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Outline
• Activity-based modeling – overview
• Rotterdam case study – illustration of an application
• Current research topics
• Examples of exploring new area
• Mental representations and choice behavior
• Group decision making in joint activity choice
• Conclusions
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Travel demand models
Micro simulation models Aggregate models
Activity-based
models
Tour-based
models
Daily activity-patterns
Trip records
OD trip matrix
Dynamic/static traffic simulation/assignment models
Predicting people’s
response to policies is
notoriously difficult
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Travel demand models
Micro simulation models Aggregate models
Activity-based
models
Trip/tour-based
models
Daily activity-patterns
Trip records
OD trip matrix
Dynamic/static traffic simulation/assignment models
Models are now
making the transition
to practice
New model
development started in
early nineties
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Activity-based versus trip-based approach
Trip-based Activity-based
Focus is on trips Focus is on activities
Unit is a trip Unit is a day
Space-time constraints ignored Space-time constraints taken
into account
Low resolution time and place High resolution time and place
Decision unit is individual Decision unit is household
Predicts when, where, transport
mode
Predicts which activities, when,
where, for how long, trip-
chaining and transport mode
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Advantages of the activity-based approach
• Better predictions
• Sensitivity to broader range of policy scenarios
• Higher level of precision in time and space
• Transparency – models tell the full story
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Approaches
• Constraints-based
• Stems from time geography (Hagerstrand)
• Basic concept is space-time prisms
• Purpose is accessibility analysis – not prediction
• Examples: Carla, Mastic
• Nested-logit models
• Extension of trip and tour-based models
• Started with the work of Bowman and Ben Akiva (2001)
• Rather course classification of activities and modes
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Approaches - continued
• Activity-scheduling models
• Take scheduling process and constraints into account
• Utility-based models versus rule-based models
• Some pioneering models
− Famos, Albatross, Cemdap, Tasha, Adapts
• Simulation / optimization models
• Traffic oriented models (Transims, Matsim)
• Operations Research models (Happs)
• Supernetwork models
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Illustration of an application
An activity-based supernetwork model
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Study area delineation
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Synthetic population
Corridor: 2.5 million residents (2009)
Total: 21,117 agents
Agents : Residents = 1 : 118
Activity programs were taken
from a survey
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Activity programs
Average per person
• 2.46 activities per day
• 1.57 tours per day
#trips 2 3 4 5 6 7 >7
% 47 % 7.3 % 26 % 4.9 % 9.1 % 2.5 % 3.0 %
work 20.5%
business 3.3%
education 4.9%
transport as work 0.2%
pick & drop 6.2%
service 5.1%
shopping 24.5%
Leisure going-out 17.1%
culture 4.8%
sports 4.9%
touring 8.3%
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P + R locations
• P+R locations (9 in R’dam)
• Train stations (10 locations )
• Actual tariffs
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Public transport upgrades
New tram line has stop in Rdam stadion station
High frequent trains between Randstad cities
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Increase parking price at activity locations
Parking costs double
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Spatial developments – realistic
• Shopping
• Going out
• Culture
• Sports
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Spatial developments – city center
• Shopping
• Going out
• Culture
• Sports
All concentrate in city center
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Spatial developments – near nodes
Concentrate near transport nodes
• Shopping
• Going out
• Culture
• Sports
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Example of a case
An individual lives North-east of center and has a non-daily
shopping activity on the agenda
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Example of a case
The person considers five options - three close to home
and the other two in Rotterdam center
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Example of a case
Bike
Before spatial development, the person always takes bike
and does shopping at the same postcode area
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Example of a case
After city center investment, the person switches to use car,
parks car at P+R Capselse brug and then takes PT to
center
Car
PT
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Total costs (disutility) of implementing
activities
6,1
6,2
6,3
6,4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
scenario
Stadion
Baan Tram
Park
Real
City
Node
Work
PT upgrades improve utility
Parking price increase causes
strong decline in utility
City scenario biggest
utility improvement
Entire area
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Total car kilometers
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
3,2
3,3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
(km)
scenario
〖×10〗^5
Stadion
Baan Tram
Park
Real
City
Node
Work
PT upgrades no influence
With Park car kilometers decrease
With Real car kilometers increase
With City car kilometers decrease
Rotterdam
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15 11
15 15
57 56 53
57
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
#person
scenario
Rotterdam
Number of people making use of P+R
130 136 132 139
350 352 358 371 395
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
#person
scenario
Entire area
Stadion
Baan Tram
Park
Real
City
Node
Work
City causes decrease in P+R
use
More often entire trip by PT
Park – strong increase P+R
Node leads to most P+R use
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P+R use – for which activities?
53 56 54 57
148 140 142
147
166
38 40 38 41
98
110 111 115
122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
work
shopping
education
culture
going-out
# Trips with P+R
Stadion
Baan Tram
Park
Real
City
Node
Work
Used most often for working
and shopping trips
Work trips react more strongly
to parking price
Spatial development has
an impact
PT upgrades
have minor impact
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Conclusions
• Integrated approach
• Spatial development / Transportation / Pricing
• Multimodal networks
• Preferences (utilities)
• Complete activity programs
• Transparancy
• Individual approach
• Very high degree of detail
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Current research topics
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Advancements in survey technology
Traditional – diary data New – GPS tracking
One or two days data Longer time frame – week or
multiple weeks
Location identification is
difficult and imprecise
Location identification is
automated and precise
No recording of travelled routes Recording of travelled routes
User unaided in memorizing of
activities and modes
Automated interpretation +
prompted recall
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Automated interpretation - example
Bayesian classifier approach (Moiseeva, Jessuran, Timmermans 2010)
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Research agenda – activity-based modeling
• Dynamic traffic modeling
• Integration of ABM and traffic modeling
• Dynamic activity-based modeling
• Extending the time frame from 1 day to multiple days
• Including life trajectories
− Long-term mobility decisions
− Life-course events
• Integrated land-use and travel demand modeling
• ABMs replace trip-based models
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Research agenda – activity-based cont’d
• Social networks and social interaction
• From isolated to interconnected agents
• From independent to group decision making
• Quality of life
• Subjective wellbeing
• Health
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Trends and developments in society
• ICT revolution
• Social media
• Augmented reality
• Mobile traveler information systems
• Flexible work times and work places
• New modes of transport
• Electrical vehicles (bicycles, cars)
• Car sharing
• Multi-modal transport networks
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Trends and developments in society – cont’d
• New modes of traffic management
• Individual / personalized
• New requirements and concerns
• Ageing population
• Transition to renewable forms of energy
• Urbanization – scarcity of space
• Quality of life – air quality, health, mobility
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Bounded rationality
Habitual life Learning & judgment
Choice Evaluation & decision
Exploration Search & info acquisition
Needs and resources
- ICT tools - Social network
- Mobility means - Budgets
Environment - Social - Physical - ICT
- Institutional - Prices - Technological
Adaptation Activity and mobility patterns & perceived wellbeing
Rational beliefs
versus
Emotional weighting and
memory bias
No search costs
versus
Sequential search and
satisficing behavior
Absolute utility values
versus
Reference-based utilities and
emotional weighting
Decision utility
versus
Experienced utility
Independent decisions
versus
Social influence and
group decision making
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A research program on bounded rationality
• Learning and judgment
• Replace Bayesian inference models
• Exploration
• Replace full information / unlimited search models
• Choice making
• Replace absolute utility models
• Subjective wellbeing
• Replace current decision utility models
• Social influence and decision making
• Replace current independent / group models
Prerequisite is to move from static to dynamic models
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Time is ripe
• Cumulative evidence from psychology and
behavioral economics
• See recent book of Daniel Kahneman
• Human biases are well documented and tools for
data collection and modeling available
• Modern survey technologies facilitate a move from
one-day to multiple days data collections
• Wide use of smart phones allows real-time
interactive data collection methods
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Individuals’ mental representations
of complex choice problems
What’s in a
person’s mind?
Joint work with Benedict Dellaert, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Example of exploring new area (1)
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Booking a fun holiday….
with
children
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A causal network model of mental
representations
Differences in mental representations lead to differences in evaluations of
choice alternatives
Benefit 1
Attribute 1 Attribute 2
Benefit 2
Attribute 3 Attribute 5
Benefit 3
Attribute 4
Decision dimension X Decision dimension Y
Utility
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Example - shopping
Pleasant
Crowded Prices
Goal success
Store variety Transfers
Convenience
Travel time
Location Transport mode
Utility
Decisions
Attributes
Benefits
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Example - shopping
Pleasant
Crowded Prices
Goal success
Store variety Transfers
Convenience
Travel time
Location Transport mode
Utility
Decisions
Attributes
Benefits
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Example - shopping
Pleasant
Crowded Prices
Goal success
Store variety Transfers
Convenience
Travel time
Location Transport mode
Utility
Decisions
Attributes
Benefits
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Comparison to standard model
Standard model New approach
Attributes of alternatives are
assumed as given
Attribute selection is part of
the model
No information about
underlying reasons
Benefits underlying attribute
evaluation are part of the
model
Data about attributes are
collected in focus groups
Mental representations are
measured by a special
purpose interview technique
Mental costs of evaluation are
not taken into account
Mental costs of evaluation are
taken into account
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Comparison to hybrid choice model
Hybrid choice model New approach
Psychological factors are taken
into account as latent variables
Mental representations are
taken into account
Psychological factors are
attitudes or perceptions
influencing preferences
Mental representations are
causal networks for reasoning
about a choice problem
Psychological factors are stable
person characteristics
Mental representations are
activated in a situation
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Measurement of MRs
• CNET – interview technique of open-response
elicitation
• When you choose between Car, Bus and Bike
• Imagine a situation where you plan to make a
shopping trip
• What are your considerations?
• Why is it important?
-------------------------------------- Example ---------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Attributes
Benefits
• What would you choose? Choice
In contrast to existing laddering techniques – CNET is decision oriented
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On-line tool
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Model development - MR
1. Basic building block is a D – A – B chain
2. Value of including a D – A – B chain
• Gain: reduction of risk of making wrong decision
• Costs: mental effort required for including in evaluation
3. Risk of making the wrong decision
• Utility variance caused by the decision variable
Decision
Alternative
Attribute Benefit
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Logit model of MR activation
Net utility of activating a D-A-B chain in situation n
Probability of activating a D-A-B chain follows
binary logit specification
Extended to allow for heterogeneity in mental
costs ( ) and base line alternative preferences.
hijncnhijnhinijn
jnhijnc rsdssu )(
nc
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Empirical application (Horeni et al. 2010)
• Representative sample of 666 individuals from a
Dutch panel
• Scenarios
• Base
• Uncertainty - product availability and travel time
• High Consequences - boss over for dinner
• Respondents were randomly allocated to a scenario
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Times and products
uncertain (yes, no)
Considerations in deciding where to shop, when to shop, and which transportation to use.
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Example of an MR
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Some substantive findings
• Most important considerations in scheduling the
shopping trips are − Shopping success, travel ease, time savings, shopping ease,
and financial savings
• Situational conditions varied have − Little influence on attributes activated
− Significant influence on
− Relative importance of the benefits and
− Some influence on how attributes influence benefits
• Considerable variation exists between individuals in
terms of their mental costs in the formation of
mental representations
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Conclusions
• Mental representations of choice problems can be modeled consistent with utility-based theories of choice and mental-model theories of cognition
• The model captures: − Perceived importance of benefit variables
− Perceived strength of causal relationships
− Decision variables and attributes
− Attributes and benefits
− Mental cost differences between individuals
• Situation variation allows for fit with key usage contexts • Input for situation targeted communication and decision
support
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Joint activity choice
The role of fairness and asymmetric evaluation of costs and rewards
Example of exploring new area (2)
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Modeling joint activity choice
Standard model New approach
Interactions between persons
within households
Extended to social networks
of persons
Assumes a group utility function No group utility function, just
individual preferences
Rational model Bounded rationality – human
biases
Ignores the process of group
decision making
Assumes a negotiation process
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Two-players ultimatum game
The other player has the option to either
accept or reject the offer
One player proposes a distribution of a
fixed amount of money
If the person accepts he receives the
amount offered; if he rejects he receives nothing
What would be the outcome under
the assumption of rationality?
What do people do in these games?
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Experiment – joint activity choice (1)
Activity A Activity B Activity C
Yourself 9 5 7
Friend 1 5 9 7
Friend 2 5 7 9
Which proposal would you do?
o Activity A
o Activity B
o Activity C
Assume you are planning a joint activity with two friends
The preferences in the group are as follows
Maximizes own outcome
Maximizes group outcome
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Experiment – joint activity choice (2)
Activity A Activity B Activity C
Yourself 5 9 7
Friend 1 9 5 7
Friend 2 5 9 7
Which proposal would you do?
o Activity A
o Activity B
o Activity C
Another example
The preferences in the group are as follows
Equal distribution
Maximizes group outcome
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Experiment – joint activity choice – variant (1)
Location A Location B Location C
Yourself 5 15 25
Friend 1 5 25 15
Friend 2 25 15 5
Which proposal would you do?
o Location A
o Location B
o Location C
This time the travel times differ
The travel times in the group are as follows (minutes)
Does this make a difference?
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Experiment – joint activity choice – variant (2)
This time one of the friends does a proposal
Activity A Activity B Activity C
Yourself 9 5 7
Friend 1 5 9 7
Friend 2 5 7 9
What would you do?
o Accept the proposal
Do another proposal, namely
o Activity A
o Activity C
Friend 1 proposes to do: Activity B
Does this make a difference?
The preferences in the group are as follows
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Social utility function
Uik = β0k Ii + β1k Zik + β2k mk Zim + β3k D(Zi)
Uik is the social utility person k assigns to option i
Zik is the preference value person k assigns to option i
m is an index for the others in the group
Zi is a person-vector of preference values for option i
D is some measure of dispersion (inequality)
Ii is a binary variable indicating whether option i is proposed by a friend
β1k – β3k are relative weights person k assigns to particular outcomes
β0k is relative weight person k assigns to proposal status
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Theory
• Under rationality assumption
• Persons either maximize an own (selfishness), others’
(altruism) or group (neutral) outcome
• Equality outcomes (fairness) does not play a role
• Proposal status does not play a role
• Costs / rewards difference does not play a role
• Hypotheses
• Fairness plays a significant role
• Proposal status plays a role (people are cooperative)
• There is an asymmetry between costs and rewards
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Experiment
• 315 persons participated
• Representative sample
• Each person received
• 8 tasks – 4 x initiating and 4 x responding
• Scenarios
• Activity versus travel time
• High versus low consequences
• Outcome tables were varied by an efficient design
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Results – basic MNL model
Parameter Value (β) t-value (β)
Self-interest (β1) 0.532 14.0
Other ones interest (β2) 0.319 11.1
Inequity (β3) -1.16 -11.9
Proposal status (β0) 0.928 9.21
Scale - small consequences 1.33 2.15
Scale - large consequences 1
Parameter Value (β) t-value (β)
Self-interest (β1) -0.063 -9.55
Other ones interest (β2) -0.027 -7.01
Inequity (β3) -0.215 -10.5
Proposal status (β0) 1.58 13.0
Scale - small consequences 1
Scale - large consequences 0.608 -4.72
Fairness plays a significant
role
Fairness has a bigger
influence
inequity / self = 2.18
inequity / self = 3.40
Activity
Travel time
Proposal status plays
a significant role
Proposal status has
a bigger influence
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Results – discrete mixture model
Parameter Mass point Value (β) t-value (β) Probability (π) t-value (π)
Self-interest (β1) 1 1.10 11.3 0.687 10.8
2 0.062 0.74 0.313 4.94
Other ones interest (β2) 1 0.718 8.74 0.777 13.8
2 -0.085 -1.27 0.223 3.95
Inequity (β3) 1 0.250 0.85 0.288 4.62
2 -2.50 -9.03 0.712 11.4
Proposal status (β0) 1 1.17 7.92 0.930 25.7
2 5.80 3.73 0.070 1.94
Parameter Mass point Value (β) t-value (β) Probability (π) t-value (π)
Self-interest (β1) 1 -0.020 -1.64 0.525 7.11
2 -0.190 -8.39 0.475 6.43
Other ones interest (β2) 1 -0.121 -5.26 0.364 3.46
2 -0.019 -2.11 0.636 6.04
Inequity (β3) 1 -0.601 -9.02 0.550 6.74
2 -0.079 -1.80 0.450 5.51
Proposal status (β0) 1 8.19 5.95 0.261 5.08
2 1.39 6.98 0.739 14.42
Activity
Travel time
There is considerable heterogeneity
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Styles
• Balanced style: self & others & equity
• Rational style: self & others
• Selfish style: self
• Social style: equity, equity & self / others
• Else: others; none
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Balanced Rational Selfish Social Else
Activity
Travel time
Strong asymmetry
Activity
Balanced style dominates
Travel time
Social style dominates
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Style memberships: estimation results MNL
model
Style Parameter Activity Travel time
Value t-value Value t-value
Self & Others & Equity Constant 1.67 5.95 -0.762 -2.35
Self & Others Constant 0.074 0.19 -0.819 -1.99
age < 35 years 0.230 -1.37
age 35 -< 55 years -1.28 -2.49 0.309 0.69
age 55+ years 1.05 2.94 1.06 2.49
Self Constant -1.10 -2.13 -0.693 -2.19
Equity + Constant 0.847 2.75 1.02 4.69
Male -0.541
Female 0.541 3.29
Else Constant 0 0
Adjusted rho-square 0.207 0.169
Females more often social style in case of travel times
Older age group more often rational style
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Conclusions
• Considerable heterogeneity in styles
• Bounded rationality
• Fairness is important
• Process is important (proposal status)
• Asymmetry costs and rewards
• Implications
• People favor compromise solutions for joint activities /
travel
• E.g., they are willing to travel further when this leads to
more equal distribution of travel times
• The new model of joint activity choice takes process
and human bias into account
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Conclusions overall
• Activity-based models show a large diversity of
approaches
• New GPS-based survey technology opens up new
opportunities
• An important current objective of the field is to
develop dynamic models (longer time frames)
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Conclusions overall cont’d
• Bounded rationality is important in
• Learning & judgment
• Search & information acquisition
• Decision making
• Social life
• Examples of exploring new area were given
• Incorporating mental representations
• Group decision making in joint activity choice
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Literature references
Activity-based modeling
• Arentze, T.A., H.J.P. Timmermans (2004) A Learning-Based Transportation Oriented Simulation System,
Transportation Research B, 38, 613 - 633.
• Arentze, T.A. and H.J.P. Timmermans (2009), A Need-Based Model of Multi-Day, Multi-Person Activity
Generation, Transportation Research B, 43, 251-265.
• Auld, J., A. Mohammadian (2011) Planning-Constrained Destination Choice in Activity-Based Model,
Transportation Research Record, 2254 / 2011, 170-179.
• Balmer, M., K.W. Axhausen, K. Nagel (2006) Agent-Based Demand-Modeling Framework for Large-Scale
Microsimulations, Transportation Research Record, 1985 / 2006, 125-134.
• Bhat, C.R., J.Y. Guo, S. Srinivasan, A. Sivakumar (2004) Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Daily
Activity-Travel Patterns, Transportation Research Record, 1894 / 2004, 57-66.
• Bowman, J.L., M.E. Ben-Akiva (2001) Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model system with activity
schedules. Transportation Research Part A, 38, 1-28.
• Pendyala, R.M., R. Kitamura, A. Kikuchi, T. Yamamoto, S. Fujii (2005) Florida Activity Mobility Simulator: Overview
and preliminary validation results. Transportation Research Record, 1921 / 2005, 123-130.
• Roorda, M.J. and B.K. Andre (2007) Stated Adaptation survey of activity rescheduling: Empirical and preliminary
results. Transportation research Record, 2021, 45-54.
Survey technology
• Ettema, D., T. Gärling, L.E. Olsson and M. Friman (2010) Out-of-home activities, daily travel, and subjective well-
being. Transportation Research Part A, 44, 723-732.
• Rieser-Schüssler, N. (2012) Capitalising modern data sources for observing and modelling transport behaviour.
Transportation Letters, 4, 115-128.
• Moiseeva, A., J. Jessurun and H.J.P. Timmermans (2010) Semi-automatic imputation of activity-travel diaries
using GPS traces, prompted recall and context-sensitive learning algorithms. In: Proceedings of the 89th TRB
Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C.: (CD-Rom, 13 pp.).
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Literature references cont’d
Mental representations
• Dellaert, B.G.C., Arentze, T.A. and H.J.P. Timmermans (2008), Shopping context and consumers’ mental
representation of complex shopping trip decision problems, Journal of Retailing, 84, 219-232.
• Arentze, T.A., Dellaert, B.G.C., and H.J.P. Timmermans (2008), Modeling and measuring individuals’mental
representations of complex spatio-temporal decision problems. Environment and Behavior, 40 (6), 843-869.
• Horeni, O., T.A. Arentze, B. Dellaert and H.J.P. Timmermans (2010), CNET and APT – A comparison of two
methods for measuring mental representations underlying activity-travel choices. In: Proceedings of the 12th
WCTR Conference, Lisbon, Portugal (CD-Rom, 21 pp.)
• Dellaert, B., T. Arentze, C. Chorus, H. Oppewal, G. Wets (2012) Mental Representations and Discrete Choice
Behavior: State-of-the-Art and Avenues for Future Research, In: S. Hess and A. Daly (Eds) In: Choice modeling:
the state of the art and the state of practice, 107- 124.
Joint activity choice
• Loewenstein, G.F., Thompson, L., Bazerman, M.H. (1989) Social Utility and Decision Making in Interpersonal
Contexts. Journal of Personal and Social Psychology, 57, 426-441.
• Arentze, T.A. (2013) Individuals’ Social Preferences in Joint-Activity Choice: The Role of Fairness and Asymmetric
Evaluation of Costs and Rewards. Paper presented at the Frontiers in Transportation Workshop, august, Munich.
• Ma, H., Ronald, N. Arentze, T.A., and Timmermans, H.J.P. (2012). Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and
participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling. Journal of Geographical Information Systems,
Published on-line: 22 July 2012.
• Van Beest, I., Van Dijk, E. (2007) Self-Interest and Fairness in Coalition Formation: A Social Utility Approach to
Understanding Partner Selection and Payoff Allocations in Groups. European Review of Social Psychology, 18,
132-174.
Supernetworks
• Arentze, T.A., H.J.P. Timmermans (2004) A Multi-State Supernetwork Approach To Modeling Multi-Activity, Multi-
Modal Trip Chains, International Journal of Geograhical Information Science, 18, 631-651.
• Liao, F., T. Arentze, H. Timmermans (2012) A supernetwork approach for modeling traveler response to park-and-
ride. Transportation research Record, 2012 Vol.2 (nr 2323), 10-17.
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Thank you for your attention
Questions