© Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company | keithmiller@adwec.ae | Tel: +971-2-694 3816 | Fax: +971-2-6425773

Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company www.adwec.ae

Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning and Studies

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity and Water Demand Forecasts

ADWEC Website Presentation

Table of Contents

2

Main purpose of this presentation is to present ADWEC’s latest demand forecasts that were finalised in February 2013.

ADWEC’s demand forecasts will next be updated in February 2014.

Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV circuits Existing 132kV circuits ADNOC 132kV circuits

Power Station Sub-Station

ADNOC Oil & Gas Plant EMAL Smelter

Under Construction Planned

Abu Dhabi

Region

Bu Hasa (ADCO Load) 1

09

MW

Status as of 31/12/2013 along with ADNOC, Masdar, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection.

3,7

29

MW

18

6 M

W

14

,34

0 M

W Asab

(ADCO Load)

Liwa

Sila

Mirfa Tarif

Dhabiya (ADCO Load)

Ramah

Wagan

Sanaiya

Al Ain

Shahama

Samha

Hayer

Dubai

TOTAL (GROSS MW)

Khazna

4,6

51

MW

2,4

30

MW

Dhayd

Al Oha Dahma

Arad

Mazyad Al Ain SW

E48

Mussaffah

GIC

Central

Rumaitha (ADCO Load)

Liwa West (Eradah)

September 2, 2013

Ghayathi

ONGS (ADCO Load) Bab

(ADCO Load)

ASGS II (ADCO Load)

200 MW

2,9

75

MW

Ajman

Umm Al Quwain

Ras Al Khaimah

Warsan

Taweelah

Qidfa

Sweihan

UAN

Wathba

Bahia

Tawian

Madinat

Zayed

Salamat

Zakher

25

6 M

W

Shamkha

Umm El Oush

EMAL 1,962 MW

Delma

Fujairah

Galailah

Sahil (ADCO Load)

Elixier 2

NGI Plant

(ADCO

Load)

GUP-TAKREER (ADNOC) 664 MW

Sharjah

X

Shah

Hameem

Qusahwira (mobile)

Industrial City

City Center

Hamraniya

Saadiyat Island

Lulu Island

Bahrani Island

Reem Island Al Gurm E19

Mina (ADST)

E48

Taweelah

Khalifa B

Airport UAN

Yas

Bahia

Mahawi

Mina (ADST)

To Shuweihat

GIC

Steel Factories

Mussafah

Industrial

To Central

Airport

Saadiyat

Yas Island

(2011)

(S1)SCIPCO = 1615 MW (S2) RPC = 1627 MW (S3) SAPCO = 1647 MW (S3) - 493 MW in 2013

(B) TAPCO = 2220 MW (A1) GTTPC = 1671 MW (A2) ECPC = 760 MW

(F1) ESWPC= 861 MW (F2) FAPCO = 2114 MW

Khorfakkan

AMPC

APC

Al Ain

Region

Western Region

(Al Gharbia)

Sir Baniyas

Shuweihat

Qusawira (ADCO)

Wasit

Mina Al Saqr

Masafi

Kalba

Dibba

Dhadna

Munay

Hamda

SEWA Network

Sep -12

Sep -12

May -12

Jan-14

Sep-12

Aug -12

Shams1 (Masdar) 100 MW (Oct-12)

Peak time cap-50 MW

May-12

Mussafah Grid

Habshan (ADCO Load)

Khowr Khawer

3

39

MG

D

91

6 M

GD

20

2 M

GD

1600 mm

1400 mm

1200 mm

1000 mm

900 mm

800 mm

600 mm

500 mm

Pumping Station (PS)

Desalination Plant

Proposed PS

Under Construction / Proposed

(NTS) Includes planned extensions as of 29/02/2012, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network.

TOTAL

Abu Dhabi

Region

Dubai

Al Ain Mirfa

Shuweihat

UNIT 5

Shoubaisi Abu Al

Abyad

Tarif

New

Mirfa PS

Madinat Zayed

Liwa

Wagan

Jurf

Sila

PS1

PS2

Sih Shoib

29

7 M

GD

Qidfa

Break

Tanks

Ghayathi

Adla

September 2, 2013

UNIT 3

Sweihan UAN

Al-Saad

Ajban

Taweelah

Sharjah

Jazirat Al-

Hamra

Ramah

Al-Maha

Forests

14

5 M

GD

Abu Dhabi (AD) Island

UAN

LULU

ISLAND REEM ISLAND

N-4927

Apr 2012

N-5807

N-4268

N-4381

Nov 2012

Bani

Yass

Mussaffah

Samha

Abu Dhabi

Island

UNIT 4

N-2622

N-4383 (AD Isl. Network)

UNIT 1

UNIT 2

N-6043 (UAN PS)

N-4268.2 Dec. 2012

(S1) SCIPCO = 101 MGD (S2) RPC = 101 MGD

(B) TAPCO = 162 MGD (A1) GTTPC = 84 MGD (A2) ECPC = 51 MGD

(F1) ESWPC =101 MGD (F2) FAPCO = 132 MGD

23

3 M

GD

AMPC

APC

Jebel Ali

Al Ain

Region

Western Region

(Al Gharbia)

N-7894

Nov 2013

Fujairah

N-6850

Mar 2013

Ras Al

Khaimah

N-7396 Nov 2013

N-W-12-0016-MA

Mar 2014

N-11328

Feb. 2016

SADIYAT ISLAND

4

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast

5

ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasting Approach

Exports (supplied to Northern Emirates by ADWEA)

Non-Oil & Gas

Non-ADNOC (Residential, Industry, Government, Commercial)

Oil & Gas

ADNOC (supplied to ADNOC by ADWEA)

Common Assumptions (to all ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasts)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi Economy

6

Electricity Demand Forecast Definitions

Long-Term Trend (7.4% 1990-2006)

7% Non-Oil Forecast Non-Oil : 7% p.a.

Auxiliaries : 7% p.a. 2013 - 2020

Short-Term Trend (9.4% 2007-2012)

9.4% Non-Oil Forecast Non-Oil : 9.4% p.a.

Auxiliaries : 9.4% p.a. 2013 – 2020

Baseline Forecast Non-Oil: Projects Based

Auxiliaries : Model 2013 – 2030

Common Assumptions Oil: ADNOC Demands

Exports (including losses)

F1 & F2 common assumptions for Production / Auxiliaries / Pumping

7

ADWEC Demand Forecasting Data Process

Distribution Companies

Transmission Company

ADWEC

8

Demand Forecast

• Constraints • Meetings • Finalisation

of Results • Distribution

Data Collection

• Developers • TRANSCO • Discos • UPC • Others

Verify Data • Site visit • MEED

Projects • Media /

Clipping • Daily Report

Analysis • Population

Growth • 3 kW per Capita • Common

assumptions • Bottom up

Model

Population Model Project Model

Existing Area Forecast

Mega and Industrial Projects Forecast

AD Emirates Demand Forecast

ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast Data Collection Process

9

Demand Forecasting Process

10

• ADWEC prepares an annual electricity demand forecast until 2030, which is then used to plan new generation capacity and fuel requirements etc. A similar process is undertaken for water.

• The Bottom Up Model adds up all new projects’ demands in the Emirate, and is the most suitable approach for forecasting electricity demand since it relates individual projects’ demand to total electricity demand.

• ADWEC’s Electricity Demand Forecast is classified according to the following categories:-

1. ADNOC

2. Industry

3. Workers Camps

4. Transportation (Identified Projects)

5. Residential / Commercial Identified* Projects

6. Residential / Commercial others

(*Identified projects are mostly mega projects, but they also include some smaller projects, e.g. 5 – 10 MW for which specific information exists but are too small to call ‘mega projects’.)

• Developers are requested to submit to ADWEC yearly updates on their Demand Forecast.

Electricity Demand Forecast Overview

11

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast (Peak MW)

6,885

7,683

8,278

9,002

10,482

11,633

12,766

14,014

15,115

16,341

17,696

6,885

7,6838,278

8,982

10,196

11,605

12,599

13,936

14,845

15,69116,337

17,454

18,60019,248

20,151

20,888

21,870

22,765

23,846

24,887

26,363

6,885

7,683

8,278

8,823

10,095

11,005

11,860

12,788

13,523

14,330

15,209

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 : Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)

9.4% p.a. Non-ADNOC (2007-2012)

Baseline : Emirate of Abu Dhabi

7% p.a. Non-ADNOC (1990-2006)

12

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast (Peak MW)

8,563

9,749

10,618

11,576

13,604

14,892

16,174

17,559

18,808

20,189

21,709

8,563

9,74910,618

11,556

13,322

14,864

16,009

17,481

18,541

19,54920,370

21,666

23,00223,860

24,983

25,955

27,185

28,344

29,702

31,040

32,824

8,563

9,749

10,618

11,400

13,222

14,273

15,280

16,350

17,238

18,208

19,258

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 : Global

Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)

9.4% p.a. Non-ADNOC (2007-2012)

Baseline

7% p.a. Non-ADNOC (1990-2006)

Global = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports

13

1,3691,915

879

2,1211,377

3,990

100

592

920

1,803

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2012 - 2015 2012-2020

MW

Cumulative Post-2012 Change in Peak Electricity Demand Forecast (MW)

Exports

Auxiliaries

Population Related

Industry

ADNOC

(ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Baseline Demand Forecast)

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast

14

10,61811,556

13,322

14,864

16,009

17,481

18,54119,549

20,370

21,666

23,00223,860

24,98325,955

27,185

28,344

29,702

31,040

32,824

8,2788,982

10,196

11,605

12,599

13,93614,845

15,69116,337

17,454

18,60019,248

20,15120,888

21,87022,765

23,846

24,887

26,363

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Total External Flows

Western Region

Al Ain Region

Abu Dhabi Region

Global Demand (diversified)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)

Abu Dhabi Region

Al Ain Region

Western Region

Exports

ADWEC Baseline Electricity Demand Forecast by Region (Peak MW)

15

8,2788,982

10,196

11,605

12,599

13,93614,845

15,69116,337

17,454

18,60019,248

20,15120,888

21,87022,765

23,846

24,887

26,363

10,61811,556

13,322

14,864

16,009

17,481

18,54119,549

20,370

21,666

23,00223,860

24,98325,955

27,185

28,344

29,702

31,040

32,824

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Total External Flows

Auxiliaries (Emirate of Abu Dhabi only)

Industry

Transport Identified Projects

Workers Camps

Residential / Commercial Other

Residential / Commercial Identified Projects

ADNOC

Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)

Global Demand (diversified)

Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

Industry

Exports

Residential / Commercial Non-Mega Projects

ADNOC

ADWEC Baseline Electricity Demand Forecast by Sector (Peak MW)

16

ADWEC Baseline Electricity Energy Demand Forecast (GWh)

67,742

78,611

87,911

94,902

103,540

109,548

115,307120,023

127,221

134,895139,689

145,944151,374

158,221

164,680

172,247

179,696

189,617

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Baseline Electricity Gross GWh Demand ForecastGWh

17

ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts Accuracy

Abu Dhabi System Forecast Actual Forecast – Actual Percent

2005 4,640 4,455 185 4%

2006 4,680 4,790 110 2%

2007 5,180 5,286 106 2%

2008 5,830 5,616 214 4%

2009 6,542 6,255 287 5%

2010 7,065 6,885 180 3%

2011 7,916 7,683 233 3%

2012 8,063 8,278 -215 -2.6%

Global Demand Forecast Actual Forecast – Actual Percent

2008 6,783 6,620 163 2%

2009 7,967 7,680 287 4%

2010 8,888 8,563 325 4%

2011 10,235 9,749 486 5%

2012 10,462 10,618 -156 -1.5%

Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)

ADWEC’s demand forecasts have proven to be very accurate 18

Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012

2005 / 2006 7,333 8,652 9,937 10,846

2006 / 2007 7,735 8,735 9,705 10,600

Actual Demand (Global) 7,680 8,563 9,749 10,618

Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)

ADWEC Long Term Demand Forecasts Accuracy

19

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Fuel Demand Forecast

20

Abu Dhabi

Bu Hasa

Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2011 & excluding connections to retired plants.

Asab

Liwa

Sila Shuweihat Mirfa

Tarif

Dhabiya

Al Ain

ADPS UAN

Dubai

Jebel Ali

Qidfa

Mussaffah

Habshan

Madinat

Zayed

Thammama C / Bab

(ADNOC)

To Oman Oil

Company Ruweis

(ADNOC)

Maqta

(ADNOC)

Taweela

h

1200 mm(48”) 1125 mm(45”) 1050 mm(42”)

900 mm(36”) 750 mm(30”) 600 mm(24”) 500 mm(20”) 450 mm(18”) 300 mm(12”)

ADNOC Gas line Power Stations

Gas Terminal ADNOC Plant

Under Construction DEL Gas line

Planned ADNOC to DEL transfer

Takreer

(ADNOC)

Ф40” (1000mm)

DEL-TRF

September 2, 2013

Saja

21

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Fuel Demand Forecast

The above fuel demand forecast are derived from ADWEC’s Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity (MW and GWh) and Water Demand Forecasts.

Item Unit 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global Yearly Gas Consumption Million scft 663,292 720,943 824,492 908,598 968,108 1,062,400 1,121,805 1,179,001 1,225,994

Average Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 1,812 1,975 2,259 2,489 2,645 2,911 3,073 3,230 3,350

Peak Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 2,288 2,448 2,668 2,947 3,149 3,427 3,619 3,803 3,955

Global Yearly Gas Consumption Billion BTu 693,140 753,385 861,594 949,485 1,011,673 1,110,208 1,172,286 1,232,056 1,281,164

Average Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 1,894 2,064 2,361 2,601 2,764 3,042 3,212 3,375 3,500

Peak Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 2,391 2,558 2,788 3,080 3,291 3,581 3,782 3,974 4,133

Item Unit 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Global Yearly Gas Consumption Million scft 1,298,221 1,375,157 1,422,600 1,484,819 1,538,519 1,606,502 1,670,420 1,745,426 1,819,088 1,917,593

Average Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 3,557 3,768 3,898 4,057 4,215 4,401 4,576 4,769 4,984 5,254

Peak Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 4,188 4,436 4,589 4,790 4,963 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Global Yearly Gas Consumption Billion BTu 1,356,641 1,437,039 1,486,617 1,551,636 1,607,752 1,678,795 1,745,589 1,823,970 1,900,947 2,003,885

Average Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 3,717 3,937 4,073 4,239 4,405 4,599 4,782 4,984 5,208 5,490

Peak Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 4,376 4,636 4,796 5,006 5,186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

- For the actual 2012 fuel split since the Fuel Section of the ADWEC Statistical Report 1998 – 2012.

- The 2012 actual values shown in the above table are the total fuel consumption in 2012 (e.g. gas, fuel oil, gas oil and other back up fuels etc) converted in standard cubic feet (scft) using a standard conversion factor of 1045 btu / scft.

22

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Water Demand Forecast

23

Water Demand Categories

Agriculture (Farms) Industrial

Domestic Villas and Shabiat Irrigation

24

Residential/Commercial Mega Projects Categories

Yas Island Raha Beach

Sadiyat Island Golf Gardens

25

Municipalities (Road Sides and Parks) Gardens

Forests Islands

Bulk and Other Categories

26

Abu Dhabi Emirate Localities (GIS)

27

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast (by Region)

690

759

810

878

934963

1,0041,036

1,0641,089

1,1111,135

1,1561,177

1,2001,221

1,2421,264

1,2851,307

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MIGD

Abu Dhabi Region

Al Ain Region

Western Region

Exports

Auxiliaries

28

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast (by Sector)

690

759

810

878

934963

1,0041,036

1,0641,089

1,1111,135

1,1561,177

1,2001,221

1,2421,264

1,2851,307

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MIGD

Bulk & Other

Domestic

Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

VillasShabiat

AgricultureIndustry

Exports

Auxiliaries(Abu Dhabi)

29

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast

-0

7

-25 -39 -45 -36 -34 -39 -43 -45 -45 -42 -40 -40 -43 -46 -50 -54 -55 -55

690

759810

878

934963

1,0041,036

1,0641,089

1,1111,135

1,156 1,1771,200 1,221 1,242

1,264 1,285 1,307

690

752

835

917

978 9991,038

1,0751,107

1,1341,156 1,177 1,196 1,217

1,2431,267

1,2921,318

1,3401,362

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Water Demand Forecast (MIGD)

Change in Demand Forecast

ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013

ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012

30

Thank You

31