ther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publish date : 4/11/2014

Author : Alex Bernal, CMT

alex@aetheranalytics.com

805.252.7161

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Report Details

Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.

Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening

If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis

Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. com

Table of Contents

Section 1 : Quick Table Summary

Quick Glance Table

Current Trade Setups

Section 2 : Currencies

AUDCAD

AUDJPY

AUDNZD

AUDUSD

EURAUD

EURCAD

EURGBP

EURJPY

EURNZD

EURTRY

EURUSD

GBPAUD

GBPCAD

GBPJPY

GBPNZD

HKDJPY

NZDJPY

NZDUSD

USDCAD

USDHKD

USDJPY

USDMXN

USDSGD

USDTRY

Section 3 : Energy Complex

WTI Crude

Brent Crude

Section 4 : Financials

10 Year T Note

30 Year T Bond

Ultra Bond

Section 5 : Indices

SP 500

Nasdaq 100

Russell 2000

DJIA

VIX VXX VXZ

Nikkei

Shanghai

Heng Seng

Jakarta

Section 6 : Metals

Gold

Silver

Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

Recommended Entry

Price

Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame

AUDCAD

AUDJPY Sell Stop Entry 95.00 1/2 @ 9714 , 1/2 @ 97.63 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Very Clean pattern with good ratios and corrective structure. Sell stop to entry suggested at 95 Daily

AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions.

AUDUSD Sell Stop Entry 0.9307 1/2 @ .9586, 1/2 @ .9552 91 & 88 Overall more aggressive (risky) structure but still high pattern rank. 3/4 of normal position size suggested Daily

EURAUD Buy Stop Entry 1.488 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Very nice 1x1 rhombus correcting against a prior 5 wave up. No Harmonic pattern. Upside Bias EW forecast Weekly

EURCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

EURGBP No tradable patterns.

EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term

EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.575, 1/2 @ 1.569 1.64 & 1.70 Semi complex bullish butterfly harmonic pattern. Buy stop to entry has triggered. Trade is live. Daily

EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently

EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly

GBPAUD Head and shoulders pattern breakout still underway, possible bullish butterfly at 1.7546

GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias

GBPNZD Buy stop entry 1.953 1/2 @ 1.895, 1/2 @ 1.885 2.002.03, LT 2.10 Bulllish Cypher encompassing a bullish butterfly fractal harmonic pattern. Complex structure. Lower profit potential Daily

HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias

NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly

NZDUSD Entry triggered .8635 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885 0.8472 & 0.8150 Deep Crab with minor three drives patternBearish Daily

USDCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias

Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

Recommended

Entry Price

Current Stop Target Quick Note

USDJPY No tradable patterns.

USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade.

USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet

USDTRY No tradable patterns.

WTI CRUDE Sell stop entry 102.58 1/2 @ 106.96, 1/2 @ 107.61 99 & 94 High pattern rank Bearish Gartley. Great trade set up. Suggest 150% of normal position size

BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested.

GOLD No tradable patterns.

SILVER Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ not reached. Aggressive traders we recommend selling OTM put spreads.

10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, First target almost reached. No trade currently

30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggested

SP500 No tradable patterns.

NASDAQ 100 Possible Bullish Bat. Need PRZ to hold and momentum to decelerate before we suggest an entry

RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Need PRZ to hold and momentum to decelerate before we suggest an entry

DJIA No tradable patterns.

VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.

NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias

SHANG HAI INDEX Bearish Bat, Low pattern Rank.

HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias

JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 Great Weekly bearish Gartley pattern after a extension high. Should have nice performance to the downside

BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias

Forex

AUDJPY - Great Pattern setting up here. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved reversal here. Aggressive

traders could dip in shorting here. For more conservative traders, waiting for a move below 95 is prudent. Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at 97.14 for 1/2 the position

and 97.63 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.

AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix this could be a nice reversal.

No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.

AUDUSD- Broke out of reverse head and shoulder base and had a nice leg up to almost 0.786% of the previous primary 5 wave. Currently sitting over extended to

the upside with respects to its volatility bands (natural movement). This means it could be currently in a blow off or high emotion state still. We consider this trade

more risky so aggressive traders should wait for intraday confirmation to test the waters shorting here. A conservative sell stop to entry at 0.9350 is suggested with tar-

gets of 0.91 and 0.88. Stops should be considered between 0.9586 and 0.9552

EURAUD - Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. Clearly a nice area to get long with the prevailing trend. Detrended os-

cillator confirms a moderately oversold reading as well. Buy stop to entry at 1.488 is suggested with stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59

EURAUD - Daily look

EURJPYCorrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.

EURNZDSemi complex corrective type bullish butterfly pattern. Pattern rank is moderate so we suggest a 3/4 normal position size in this trade. Target 2 might be out

of reach in our opinion but the measurements suggest a 1.72 LT target move. Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are at 1.575 for 1/2 the position and

1.568 for 1/2. Preceding structure lacks the traits of a 5 wave impulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.

EURUSD Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal juncture. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401

has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive traders. No formal trade is suggested yet until the

PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten-

tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.

GBPAUD Head and shoulders top breakout is still under way. Measured minimum move is below 1.72. Given the wave structure its possible to have a reversal at

1.76 when we get a confirmation of a bullish butterfly harmonic pattern. No trade suggested currently.

GBPNZD Bullish Cypher pattern is encompassing a bullish butterfly pattern. The very complex nature of this structure lowers its over all pattern rank but since we can

see a 5 wave impulse from the X point of the cypher pattern there still is great potential for this pattern to have a nice move. We suggest using 3/4 of your normal po-

sition size on this trade. Buy stop to entry is suggested at 1.953 with stops at 1.895 and 1.89. Measured move targets at minimum at 2.00 and we suggest taking off 3/4

of the total position if this is reached since the target 2 is beyond what we see feasible in the next move.

NZDJPY Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a Bat-Crab in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern

that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 35 wave termination points its a very high conviction trade setup. We recommend 200% normal position size for ag-

gressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70.

NZDUSD Bearish deep crab pattern with a minor 3 drives at the PRZ point give us moderate conviction for this trade. We identified a nice 3 wave divergence on

the Detrended oscillator indicating that the momentum of this current move is decelerating substantially. Sell stop to entry was triggered on 4/11/2014 at 0.8635.

Stops are place at 0.8835 and 0.880. Potential targets include 0.8472 and 0.8150

USDMXN potential bullish Gartley pattern

USDSGD potential bullish Bat, PRZ not yet reached

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil High pattern rank bearish Gartley pattern identified. Sell stop entry @ 102.58 suggested, with stops to be placed at 106.9 and 107.6 respectively. Pos-

sible targets include 99 and 94. Since the geometry of this pattern is in the higher quartile of our ranking system we suggest a 150% increase of normal position size for

aggressive traders.

Silver Possible bullish bat, PRZ not yet reached.

US Ten Year Treasury NoteWeekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Large primary butterfly held support and we are now seeing a bottom structure re-

versal. Small buy stop to entry at 135.16 is recommended with stops at 131.16, possible target measured move is 142.16.

Indices

NasdaqPossible Bullish Bat. Need PRZ to hold and momentum to decelerate before we suggest an entry

Russell 2000Possible Bullish Bat. Need PRZ to hold and momentum to decelerate before we suggest an entry

Jakarta IndexHigh ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and C legs. This indicates there is some well be-

haved wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position size than normal.

Symbol Entry Date Entry price Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L Notes

EURNZD 4/11/2014 Buy Stop entry triggered 1.605 Stops at 1/2 @ 1.575, 1/2 @ 1.569 currently

NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 0.8635 Stops currently at 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885

Trade Log

Appendix

Methodology & Strategy

Harmonic any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.

The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number. - J.M. Hurst

Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to find specific

geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry elliott waves in the tradition

of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that we have studied and thoroughly tested from

each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze

waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We dont believe in the subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5

and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures.

Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high

probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or forecasted.

Pattern RankOur proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment (longer term

waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.

PRZPotential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern

Trade Management

We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often utilize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR 14, 2.5) (ATR 21,

3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only somewhat subject process in our

trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point or minimum targets need to be revised. We

always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take

1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out.

Contact

alex@whentotrade.com

+1.805.252.7161

Skype : alexbernal0