aether analytics technical conspectus june 13, 2014

8/12/2019 Aether Analytics Technical Conspectus June 13, 2014

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Æther AnalyticsWeekly Technical Conspectus publish date : 6/13/2014

Author : Alex Bernal, CMT

[email protected]

805.252.7161



DISCLAIMER

The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (“we” or “us” ) believes reliable, but no representation is made byinformation is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and wto advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, indiviotherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make tdecisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investdenominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performanis not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleaparticipants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or itrepresentatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including withtrading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.

Report Details

Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included. Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or

alex@aetheranalytics. Com User Guide Download Link — > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf

http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf





Table of Contents

Section 1 : Quick Glance Table Summary

Section 2 : Currencies Section 3 : Energy Complex Section 7 : Grains & Softs

AUDCAD WTI CRUDE Corn

AUDJPY Brent Crude Soybeans

AUDNZD Natural Gas Soybean Oil

AUDUSD Section 4 : Interest Rates Oats

EURAUD 10 Year Treasury Note Wheat

EURCAD 30 Year Treasury Bond Coffee

EURGBP Ultra Bond Sugar

EURJPY Section 5 : Indices Cotton

EURNZD S&P 500 Cocoa

EURTRY Nasdaq 100 Section 10 : Sample Portfolio Tracking

EURUSD Russell 2000 Section 11 : Appendix

GBPAUD DJIA

GBPCAD VIX (VXX / VXZ)

GBPJPY Nikkei

GBPNZD Shanghai

HKDJPY Heng Seng

NZDJPY Jakarta

NZDUSD Section 6 : Metals

USDCAD Gold

USDHKD Silver

USDJPY Platinum

Palladium



Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

Time Frame Recommended Entry

Price

Current Stops Targets Quick Note

AUDCAD Daily Trade is Live (1/2 stopped out at (1.015) 6/4, Second 1/2 stopped out 6/6 @ 1.0234

AUDJPY Daily Trade is Live. 1/2 was stopped out at 95.89 5/14/2014, 1/2 stopped out at 6/5 95.55

AUDNZD Low Ranking Deep Crab

AUDUSD Daily Stopped out 6/6 @ 0.93.42 , 6/12 @ 0.9410

CADJPY

EURAUD Stopped out 6/10 @ 1.45 , 6/11 @ 1.44

EURCAD

EURGBP Daily

EURJPY Daily Entry Triggered 140.00 140.59 134 Trade is Live Triangle Breakout

EURNZD Weekly Bullish Gartley

EURTRY Possible Bullish Bat @ 2.75. No trade suggestions currently

EURUSD Weekly Entry Triggered 1.367 1/2 @ 1.3901, 1/2 @ 1.4165 1.24 Trade is Live

GBPAUD Retest of Neckline Again

GBPCAD Possible complex head and shoulders top pattern

GBPJPY fractals

GBPNZD Daily fractals

HKDJPY Weekly Continuation Triangles

NZDJPY Weekly Entry Triggered 0.86 1/2 @ 92.63, 1/2 @ 90.23 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave Entry triggered 5/29/2014

NZDUSD Daily 1/2 stopped 6/6 @ 0.8549, 1/2 @ 086.15 on 6/12

USDCAD Bearish 5-0





Price

Current Stop Targets Quick Note

USDJPY Weekly EW complete 5 wave cycle

USDMXN Failed Bullish Gartley : ABC symmetry developing

USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet

WTI CRUDE Daily Buy stop Entry 105.23 1/2 @ 103.37, 1/2 @ 104.47 112.00 Breakout —

Trade is Live

BRENT CRUDE Weekly Buy stop entry 113.07 All @ 101.31 145 / 75 Trade its Live Large Scale symmetrical triangle on weekly,

Nat Gas No tradable patterns.

RBOB Gasoline Possible Bearish Gartley or Crab forming

Heating OIl No tradable patterns.

10 YEAR NOTE Trade stopped out at 1.2537 for 1/2 and 125.025

30 YEAR BOND Weekly Entry Triggered 135.16 1/2 @ 133.61, 1/2 @ 130.83 142.16 Trade is Live

SP500 1 X 1 at 1963.75 6/6/2014

NASDAQ 100 Daily Sell Stop 37.39 Suggested 1/2 @ 3891, 1/2 @ 3834 3600 Sell 1 tick below March high

RUSSELL 2000 Daily Entry Triggered 1140 1/2 @ 1138 1/2 @ 1120 1201 & 1260 Trade is Live

DJIA 1:1 ABC Rhombus

VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.

NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias

SHANG HAI INDEX Daily 1/2 got stopped out 2169.18 6/13





Price

Current Stop Targets Quick Note

HENG SENG Weekly Gartley Possibility

JAKARTA Weekly Sell stop entry 4799 1/2 @ 5251, 1/2 @ 5381 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET.

BOMBAY SENSEX

US Dollar Index

GOLD Weekly Buy stop entry 1400 1/2 @ 1196.3, 1/2 @ 1153 1650 Weekly Possible bullish reverse head and shoulders

SILVER Daily Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.55 1/2 @ 18.19 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to e

Platinum Daily Entry Triggered 1466 All @ 1491.60 1380 Trade is Live (1/2 profits taken at 1423 6/6

Palladium

Copper Daily Entry Triggered 3.13 3.15 & 3.11 2.95 Bearish Gartley

Corn Possible Bullish Shark

Soybeans Weekly Daily Entry Triggered 1440 1/2 @ 1601, 1/2 @ 1551 1300 & 1050 Trade is Live

Soybean Oil Daily Entry Triggered 39.50 1/2 @ 37.75 1/2 @ 37.18 44.00 Trade is Live

Oats “Gar– Fly” on Daily

Wheat Daily Entry Triggered 722.25 1/2 @ 635.34 660 & 620 Trade is Live. Target 2 complete (covered 1/2 short at 655.25) (covered 1/4 @ 585.75)

Coffee Low Pattern Rank Alt Bat

Sugar No tradable patterns.

Cotton No tradable patterns.

Cocoa Weekly Entry Triggered 2866 1/2 @ 3210 2600 & 2200 Trade is Live Bearish Crab Pattern (1/2 stopped at 3085)



Currenc



AUDNZD - Bearish Deep Crab — we missed this trade but it was identified last week.



EURAUD - Weekly Look — We think this is following the Copsey 3 wave impulse model since wave 1 is clearly 3 waves up, and wave 3 is as well. We

out the high probability zone where wave 4 could complete and reverse back up to new highs in a wave 5.



EURAUD - Daily Look — Current pattern is Three Drives low / Wolfe Wave. Looking for bullish confirmation reversal



EURCAD —Bearish Head and shoulders confirmed. Measured move target possibility 1.44. Measured move “typical wave 3 “ is also aligning with he

target.



EURGBP Weekly Look — Approaching Bat Support



EURJPY — Trade is Live, Sell stop entry triggered 140. Stops are all at 140.59. Measured move target 134. Analysis : Corrective Symmetrical triangle b



EURNZD — Weekly Bullish Gartley



EURTRY — Weekly Bullish Bat



EURUSD — Trade is Live. Sell stop entry triggered at 1.367. Stops at 1.3902 and 1.416. Potential downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term



EURUSD — Trade is Live. Possible Shark Support here. Keeping stops at suggested level on weekly scale



NZDJPY weekly — TRADE IS LIVE — Looking to at on a break below 2 – 4 wave trendline. Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW imp

Crab” in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 3 — 5 wave termination pointconviction trade setup. We recommend 200% normal position size for aggressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respe

expected targets are 78 and 70.



Energ



Crude Oil WTI — Trade is Live Triple top Cup with Handle Break out. Buy stop entry 105.23, stops at 104.47 & 103.34. Target 112



Brent Weekly — Large scale symmetrical triangle.



RBOB Gasoline — Large scale Bat Resistance, Possible Diamond Top



Interest Rates



US 30 Year Treasury Bond — Trade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout.

133.61& 130.83. Possible target measured move is 143.

I di



Indic



SP 500 — Daily Look.



Nasdaq Futures — Bearish Butterfly — Sell stop level 37.39, if filled stops at 3891 & 3833. target is 3600 minimum.



Russell 2000 Futures — Daily Look Bullish Bat confirming reversal here. Suggested buy stop 1140. Stops are at 1138 &1120 suggested. Possible targets

rent pattern caught a bearish butterfly right before it hit target 1.



Jakarta Index — Update : ENTRY Suggestion Not triggered yet. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry

C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150

size than normal. Sell stop level revised higher to 4799. if triggered stops at 5381 & 5251 suggested.

M t l



Metals



Gold — Weekly Possible bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern off of the Major harmonic support level zone. If neck line is breached at 1400 a

entry for long trade is recommended with stops at 1196 and 1153 respectively. Minimum measured move target would be 1650.



Silver — Nice Bullish Bat setting up here . Suggested Buy stop entry 20.00 with stops at 1/2 @ 18.55, 1/2 @ 18.19 with Targets at 22 & 24. Also clear bul

pattern down here at the D zone.



Platinum — Daily Look . TRADE IS LIVE. Entry 1466 1/2 Profit were taken at target 1423 Entry Small scale bearish harmonic here. Pattern rank is moderat

like a trigger hedge in case our silver and gold trades don’t pan out. Stops at 1491. Target 2 at 1380.



Copper — Daily Look Trade is Live Entry filled 3.13. stops are at 3.17 & 3.13. Target 1 is 2.95 and target 2 is 2.80



Grains & Softs



Soybeans — Weekly. Entry Triggered 1440 — Stops at 1601 & 1551, Targets 1280 & 1050 There is two separate harmonic patterns here both with resist

1520 +/- region. Clear ABC up swing suggests a new down impulse should form.



Soybeans Oil — Daily Look — Buy stop entry suggested 39.50 with stops at 37.42 @ 36.87 if triggered. Target would be 43.50



Wheat — Trade is Live. Target 1 Reached, Covered 1/2 position at 655.25. Covered 1/4 at 585.25. Stop for last piece is at 635.14



Cocoa — Trade is Live. Sell stop entry filled 2866. 1/2 stopped out at 3075 Stops are at 3213. Bearish Crab Pattern on the weekly scale. Nice structur

is a high probably trade set up. We recommend using 150% larger size on this trade. Targets are 2600 and 2200.

Portfolio Track



Portfolio Track

Sample Portfolio Tracking



In the effort to help our subscribers learn how to effectively manage a forex, futures & Stock portfolio we have build a sample portfolio tracking log

base $100,000.00 NAV starting amount for 3 separate portfolios; $100,000 for futures , $100,000 for forex & $100,000 for stock trades. In efforts to sim

not include commissions or broker fees since these will vary from subscriber to subscriber. This is in no way meant to be representative of actual ca

aged but solely for educational purposes to show the subscriber how we are performing with our trade suggestions and risk management. We wi

most accurate trading performance statistics possible and also keep our log simplified and transparent.

- Forex : We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 10 Mini forex lots for all FX trades unless noted otherwise.

(10,000 units of quote currency)

Futures: We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 1 standard futures contract for all futures trades unless noted otherwise.

Equities : %200 NAV of portfolio will be the base multiplier for share size. (rounded up to nearest whole)

Subscribers are responsible for calculating there own optimal position sizes in accordance to there own individual risk tolera

The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (“we” or “us” ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by mation is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their owcisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investmennominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance onot necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, oand / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleaparticipants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or itssentatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limlosses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.

S b l E t D t L /Sh t B i P i C t St #1 C t St #2 E it D t E it P i P i

Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on th



Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Poin

EURNZD 4/11/2014 Long 1.605 1.58 1.570 5/6/2014 avg (1.575) - 0.0

NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Short 0.8635 0.88 0.89 5/6/2014 avg (0.876) -0.1

AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Short 95.00 95.72 5/14/2014 Avg (95.72) -0.7

AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Short 0.9325 0.910 0.88 5/3/2014 0.93875 -0.0

EURAUD 4/23/2014 Long 1.488 1.45 5/6/2014 1.445 -0.0

GBPNZD 4/16/2014 Long 1.953 1.93 5/6, 5/15 Avg 1.936 -0.0

WTI Crude 4/22/2014 Short 102.58 102.58 104 5/1, 5/14 1 @ 99.00

1@ 102.58

+3.5

Shanghai 4/22/2014 Short 2185 2171 2146 5/29 1@2144

1@ 2169.18

+28

AUDCAD 4/29/2014 Short 1.01 1.015 1.0123 6/4/2014 Avg 1.0192 -0.0

30 Year 5/1/2014 Long 135.16 133.61 130.83

EURJPY 5/9/2014 Short 140 140.59

10 Year 5/9/2014 Long 125.05 125.58 125.37 6/4 1 @ 125.37

1 @ 125.025

0.29

Palladium 5/7/2014 Short 800 844.28 832.54 5/21/2014 830.13/844 -30.

* Shaded row denotes closed trade

S b l E t D t L /Sh t B i P i C t St #1 C t St #2 E it D t E it P i P i

Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on th



Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Poi

Wheat 5/12/2014 Short 722.25 656.50 5/23/2014

6/13/2014

655.25 (1/2)

585.75 (1/4)

+67

+ 13

Cocoa 5/9/2014 Short 2866 3074 3210 6/4 1/2 @ 3074 -208

NZDJPY 5/29/2014 Short 0.86 92.63 90.23

Russell 2000 5/28/2014 Long 1140 1138 1120

Platinum 5/28/2014 Short 1466 1511 6/4 1/2 @ 1423 +43

Copper 5/30/2014 Short 3.13 3.11 3.15

EURUSD 5/15/2014 Short 1.3665 1.3901 1.4165

WTI Crude 6/12/2014 Long 105.23 103.37 104.47

Brent Crude 6/12/2014 Long 113.07 101.31

Soybeans 6/12/2014 Short 1440 1601 1551

Soybean Oil 6/13/2014 Long 39.50 37.75 37.18

Sample Portfolio Performance



Performance Table * Portfolio Performance is calculated o

Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan

2014 0.0% -4.259% 16.16%

2015

Risk Return Profile

Starting NAV

Performance YTD

Performance since inception

Max Draw Down

Annual RoR

Monthly Annual Compound Return

Sharpe since inception

Profit Factor

Appendix

Methodology & Strategy



Methodology & Strategy

Harmonic — “any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.”

“The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number.” - J.M. Hurst

Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety

find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable r isk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns an

elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the bewe have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qu

and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & week ly). We don’t be

subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to t

essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identifie

investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trad

forecasted.

Common Newsletter Nomenclature

Pattern Rank — Our proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro tech

(longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.

PRZ — Potential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harm

Pattern Names — BAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT – BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB — These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point f

that appear in the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here — > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full sp

for each pattern

Detrended Oscillator — One of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is ve

RVALUE indicator laid out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great too

over extending to the up and downside of a markets “normal” behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and mom

Appendix

“These standing wave patterns represent the lowest energy vibrational modes of the object or complex system. While there are countless way by






ese s a d g a e pa e s ep ese e o es e e gy b a o a odes o e objec o co p e sys e . e e e a e cou ess ay by

can vibrate (each associated with a specific frequency), objects favor only a few specific modes or patterns of vibrating. The favored modes (pa

are those which result in the highest amplitude vibrations with the least input of energy.” -AE

Trade Management

We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often utilize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR

14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry techni

somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the en

or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recomme

putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stoppe

Position Sizing

There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our con

the context of each trade. When we mention “Normal” position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your s

tolerance and trade management style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have sl ightly less confidence in & 6/4 (

(200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each

ever recommend “betting the farm” or “going all in” in any trade because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formula

recommend is the following:

Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolirisk per trade (2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR

Author Bio



Alex Bernal, CMT

Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivat

also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co

management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical

such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year

trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analythe intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce qua

through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to re

repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.

Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.c

Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.

Contact

aetheranalytics.com

[email protected]

+1.805.252.7161

Skype : alexbernal0

aether analytics technical conspectus june 13, 2014

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