agenda interthink – 2003 organizational project management baseline study –industry profile...
TRANSCRIPT
Agenda• Interthink – 2003 Organizational Project Management Baseline Study
– Industry Profile – Country Profile– Organization Size– Data On Schedule– Data On Budget– Key Influences – Risk Management
• What is Risk?
• Tools
• PMBOK Chapter 11– 11.1 Risk Management Planning – 11.2 Risk Identification– 11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis– 11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis– 11.5 Risk Response Planning – 11.6 Risk Monitoring and Control
• Questions and Answers
Interthink – 2003 Organizational Project Management Baseline Study
Interthink – 2003 Organizational Project Management Baseline Study
Interthink – 2003 Organizational Project Management Baseline Study
Schedule
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Late On Time (+/-10%)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Budget
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Over Budget On Budget
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
As with every previous year, the correlation of risk management and overall process performance is one of the strongest ones found
Risk management continues to be a practice area that for many organizations is ignored, or is addressed only at the beginning of the project
Research has consistently demonstrated that an emphasis on risk management can have widespread and significant impacts on how projects are managed organizationally
It continues to be a leading indicator of organizational success
What Is Project Risk?
According to PMBOK Chapter 11
Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one project objective
Software
MS Project
MS Word
MS Excel
MS Power PointMS Outlook
Pertmaster for MS Project
Good News: You have 2/3 – 5/6 of the tools you need to do risk analysis
It All Starts With A Good PlanMS Project
Project Risk Management
11.1 Risk Management Planning
11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.2 Risk Identification
11.5 Risk Response Planning
11.6 Risk Monitoring and Control
11.1 Risk Management Planning.1 Inputs
.1 Project Charter
.2 Project Scope Statement
.3 Project Management Plan
.4 Organizational Process Assets
.5 Environmental and Organizational Factors
.1 Planning Meetings and Analysis
.3 Output.1 Risk Management Plan
.2 Tools and Techniques
Project Risk Management PlanMS Word
11.2 Risk Identification.1 Inputs
.1 Project Charter
.2 Project Scope Statement
.3 Project Management Plan
.4 Organizational Process Assets
.5 Environmental and Organizational Factors
.1 Documentation Reviews
.2 Information Gathering Techniques
.3 Risk Checklists
.4 Assumptions Analysis
.5 Diagramming Techniques
.3 Outputs.1 Risk Register.2 Project Management Plan (Update)
.2 Tools and Techniques
Risk ChecklistMS Word
11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis.1 Inputs
.1 Project Charter
.2 Project Scope Statement
.3 Project Management Plan
.4 Organizational Process Assets
.5 Environmental and Organizational Factors
.1 Risk Probability And Impact
.2 Probability And Impact Matrix
.3 Risk Data Quality Assessment
.4 Risk Categorization
.5 Risk Urgency Assessment
.3 Outputs.1 Risk Register (Updates)
.2 Tools and Techniques
Probability and Impact MatrixMS Excel
Probability Risk Score = Probability x Impact
0.9 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72
0.7 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56
0.5 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40
0.3 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24
0.1 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08
0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80
11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis.1 Inputs
.1 Project Management Plan
.2 Risk Register
.3 Project Scope Statement
.4 Work Performance Information
.5 Organizational Process Assets
.1 Data Gathering And Representation Techniques
.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis And Modeling Techniques
.3 Outputs.1 Risk Register (Updates)
.2 Tools and Techniques
Monte Carlo SimulationPertmaster for MS Project
Cum
ulat
ive
Fre
quen
cy
Hits
0
22
44
66
88
110
Distribution (start of interval)
08/07/07 10/02/07 11/27/07 01/22/08 03/18/08 05/13/08
5% 09/26/07
10% 10/12/07
15% 10/24/07
20% 11/02/07
25% 11/12/07
30% 11/16/07
35% 11/23/07
40% 11/29/07
45% 12/05/07
50% 12/12/07
55% 12/18/07
60% 12/26/07
65% 01/01/08
70% 01/08/08
75% 01/15/08
80% 01/21/08
85% 01/30/08
90% 02/13/08
95% 03/03/08
100% 05/15/08
There is less than a 5% chance of meeting the original estimated date!
There is an 85% chance of missing the estimated date by 4 months!
Sensitivity AnalysisPertmaster for MS Project
00039 - Conduct marketing/technical review 59%
00099 - Determine if product is meeting customer cost/performance expect 35%
00090 - Start production of commercial product quantities 28%
00071 - Complete customer trial monitoring 24%
00091 - Monitor customer acceptance testing 24%
00102 - Evaluate manufacturing process for stability and cost effectiven 21%
00086 - Design and order new equipment 20%
00048 - Prepare preliminary manufacturing design 16%
00087 - Install and test new equipment or equipment modifications 16%
00041 - Modify prototype process 13%
00075 - Re-evaluate manufacturing processes 13%
00068 - Monitor customer trials 12%
00021 - Perform financial evaluation 12%
00040 - Redesign process (if necessary) 11%
00045 - Conduct customer evaluations of prototype product 10%
11.5 Risk Response And Planning.1 Inputs
.1 Project Management Plan
.2 Risk Register
.1 Documentation Reviews
.2 Information Gathering Techniques
.3 Risk Checklists
.4 Assumptions Analysis
.5 Diagramming Techniques
.3 Outputs.1 Risk Register.2 Project Management Plan (Update)
.2 Tools and Techniques
Project Management Plan (Update)MS Project
We may want to put a few more developers on this one!
11.6 Risk Monitoring And Control.1 Inputs
.1 Project Management Plan
.2 Work Performance Information
.3 Approved Changed Requests
.1 Risk Reassessment
.2 Risk Audits And Periodic Risk Reviews
.3 Variance And Trend Analysis
.4 Technical Performance Measurement
.5 Reserve Measurement
.3 Outputs.1 Recommended Corrective Action.2 Requested Changes.3 Risk Register (Updates).4 Organizational Process Assets (Updates)
.2 Tools and Techniques
Risk Reassessment Pertmaster for MS Project
Cum
ulat
ive
Fre
quen
cy
Hits
0
21
42
63
84
105
Distribution (start of interval)
05/23/07 06/22/07 07/22/07 08/21/07 09/20/07 10/20/07
5% 06/26/07
10% 07/06/07
15% 07/12/07
20% 07/18/07
25% 07/23/07
30% 07/26/07
35% 07/31/07
40% 08/02/07
45% 08/07/07
50% 08/09/07
55% 08/14/07
60% 08/17/07
65% 08/21/07
70% 08/24/07
75% 08/29/07
80% 09/04/07
85% 09/10/07
90% 09/14/07
95% 09/25/07
100% 10/24/07There is now an 85% chance of finishing the project 2 weeks early!
There is now a 95% chance of meeting the original estimated date!