agriculture and agriculture et agri-food canada agroalimentaire canada impacts of climate change on...

Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada

Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

Sam Gameda and Andy BootsmaAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Ottawa


CGCM1 Mean Temperature ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group


CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s

Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group


GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables (e.g. Temperature, Precipitation)

• How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices?

• What are the potential impacts on crop production?


Atlantic Canada


Average Crop Heat UnitsCrop Heat Units (CHU)


Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD)


Water Deficit


Potential ACI changes:

Agro-climatic index

Increase under

Climate Change

CHU 500-700 units

EGDD ~ 400 units

Water Deficit 25-50 mm


Implications for Atlantic Canada

Significant potential for Large-scale:

• expansion in corn and soybean areas

• Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)


Production scenario

Yield(t/ha)

Area(ha)

Production(‘000 tonnes)

Corn Present 5.6 2,300 13

2040-69 7.0 30,000 210

Soybeans Present 2.3 3,500 8

2040-69 3.0 20,000 60

Barley Present 3.0 55,000 165

2040-69 3.15 25,000 79


Quebec & Ontario


Potential ACI changes:

Agro-climatic

Index

Current Under

Climate Change

CHU 3400-3700 >5200

GDD 1750-2250 2750-3500

GSS Early/Mid April Early/Late March

GSE Late Oct/Mid Nov Mid/Late Nov

GSL 180-225 days 210-270 days

Water Deficit Little change expected


Implications for Quebec & Ontario

• Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops.

• Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher yields


Some Considerations

• These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period

• Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change


(Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)

Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada


Summary

Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada:

• Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada.

• Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario

• Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production

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