Agriculture and Climate Change: Science and Policy Contexts

Francesco N. Tubiello

MAGHG Team

Second FAO Workshop on Statistics for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3-4 June2013, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Overview

1. The Science Context: Climate Change Dimensions

2. International Climate Policy

3. Critical Issues for Agriculture in the coming decade

4. The Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Project

5. Objectives of the workshop

Climate Change: The critical role of

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses

Fundamental human activities (crop and livestock production,

forestry, associated land use changes) are both a cause of,

and a potential victim of, current and future climate change:

1. They are responsible for large, global scale environmental change

2. Management practices and land use change lead to large amounts of GHG

3. The resulting climate change endangers food security and ecosystems

Pastures

add

another

3.0 billion

ha; or

20%

Total land use is ~ 4.0

billion ha, or 30% of

total land.

(Forest cover ~ 4 Gha)

Large global footprint:

Crops cover

~ 1.5 billion

ha, 10% of

global ice-

free land

• It has been, is and will continue

to be a key driver of global

change and climate change

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CH4

CH4

N2O

CH4

GHG Emissions are a direct result of land use

AFOLU emissions and anthropogenic forcing

Source: IPCC, 2007 – IV Assessment Report

12% Agriculture

18% LULUCF

26% Energy

20% Industry

3%

13% Transport

Agriculture

LULUCF

Energy

Industry

Waste

Transport

30%

The atmospheric implications…

Source: NASA GISS, 2012

…and their planetary consequences

Source: IPCC, 2007 – IV Assessment Report

Sources: NASA-GISS, 2012

Which Future for next generations?

Source: IPCC, 2007 – IV Assessment Report

International Action UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNFCCC, signed in 1992 . Main Objective is specified in Article 2: ‘’…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame

sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to

climate change, to ensure that food production is not

threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’’

Common but differentiated responsibility

• Recognition that ANNEX I parties, developed countries, bear the main responsibility for current GHG concentrations and are primarily called upon to reduce their emissions (mitigation actions) •Non-Annex I countries should nonetheless contribute to global mitigation efforts –considering their increasingly larger role •Annex I parties should help non-Annex I parties in identifying and implementing mitigation actions and adaptation plans in their path towards sustainable development

Sources: IEA and NASA-GISS 2012

Mechanisms of the UNFCCC

• Reporting GHG emissions by countries with different rules for Annex I and non-Annex I parties.

• Non-annex I reporting : National Communications, Biennial Update Report (BUR) from 2014.

• Support to National Adaptation and Mitigation Planning:

o Capacity building and Technology Transfer o Flexible Mechanisms and Emission Trading (CDM, JI)

• Climate Funding (Adaptation Fund, Green Climate Fund, REDD+)

Agriculture and Climate Change Responses

There are significant opportunities to develop climate response actions in agriculture that can address adaptation and mitigation at the same time:

Good land and water conservation techniques can lead to increase resilience of production, healthier agro-ecosystems, enhance food security and favor rural development goals while reducing GHG emissions and increasing soil carbon

Funding and regulations for mitigation in agriculture can thus be tied to sound national rural development policies

National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)

UNFCCC vehicle to secure significant international support for National Mitigation in non-Annex I parties

Significant scope for focusing on agriculture, forestry and associated land use change activities, to link mitigation to rural development goals in a coherent grand plan for national development

Considering the large role that agriculture plays in many non-Annex I countries

Sound GHG Reporting at the center of action

National GHG Reporting

(National Communications,

NAMAs, etc.)

International Community

UNFCCC Parties

COP/MOP

Subsidiary Body for

Scientific and

Technological Advice

Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate

Change IPCC GHG Reporting

Guidelines and

Guidance

$, Technology,

Capacity, etc.

MAGHG: Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Emissions

and Mitigation Potentials in Agriculture

PROJECT GOALS: • Generate knowledge to help developing countries identify, assess and report their GHG emissions in agriculture, forestry and fisheries

• Help countries identify mitigation options consistent with their rural development goals, food security, agro-ecosystems resilience, including NAMAs

• Close collaboration with IPCC and UNFCCC in support of

reporting and negotiations

MAGHG

Project Activities:

• FAOSTAT Emissions database, to identify global and regional trends and support FAO member countries

• Capacity development for GHG data reporting and NAMA development

• Contribution to IPCC: AR5, Revised GPG 2013

KP, IPCC Software

Thank you!

Contacto: MAGHG@fao.org Sitio web MAGHG: www.fao.org/climatechange/micca/ghg Sitio web FAOSTAT: http://faostat.fao.org

Financiado por: