amarach economic recovery index july 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

July 2015

© Amárach Research


Moody Summer

The latest results for the July 2015 Economic

Recovery Index are positive (the index is back

above 40 for the second time), and this

despite a wet summer and bolshie seagulls.

The transformation in sentiment over these

past six years is remarkable – we link to the

July 2009 report on the next page just to let

you see for yourself.

But the picture is one of gradual change in

consumer behaviour rather than rapid change;

so paying down debt remains a priority

(though less so than in the past), and

spending intentions are higher, but only by a

little in recent months.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to July 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 18th to 25th July 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was six years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has once again broken through the 40 level, as it did back in April:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, July 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'15

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

the ERI is back above the 40 level…


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0

Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0

Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3

Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5

Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3

Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7

Jun-15 14 32 35 16 2 39.8

Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1

a ‘recovery mindset’ appears to be setting in…

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jul-09 42 47 58 60

Jul-10 42 47 55 55

Jul-11 26 39 48 49

Jul-12 27 38 45 43

Jul-13 27 39 47 45

Jul-14 37 41 48 44

Jun-15 44 41 51 40

Jul-15 40 41 51 44

positive sentiment is stable, while any improvement is very gradual…


Feeling Bullish

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


July 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 16% 18% 14% 23% 18% 13% 13% 15% 19% 20% 13%

Slightly Agree 35% 33% 36% 35% 33% 31% 35% 38% 33% 38% 31%

Neither/Nor 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 21% 17% 15% 19% 17% 19%

Slightly Disagree 17% 16% 17% 13% 17% 20% 18% 16% 17% 16% 17%

Strongly Disagree 12% 13% 12% 6% 11% 13% 16% 15% 10% 7% 17%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jul-09 14

Jul-10 20 27 62 27

Jul-11 17 26 59 26

Jul-12 18 25 56 25

Jul-13 19 25 56 23

Jul-14 23 24 54 23

Jun-15 30 27 54 27

Jul-15 28 24 52 27

paying off debt remains a priority, though down a little…


Debt Detox

“My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible”

% Agree: October 2009 to July 2015


R² = 0.4582

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

63

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly


Willing Borrowers

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 11% 8% 8%

Slightly Agree 19% 20% 18% 15% 27% 21% 21% 11% 21% 23% 15%

Neither/Nor 13% 13% 13% 18% 14% 16% 12% 9% 11% 13% 14%

Slightly Disagree 21% 20% 22% 27% 18% 21% 19% 20% 20% 25% 18%

Strongly Disagree 35% 34% 35% 23% 27% 32% 39% 48% 34% 27% 41%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Enjoyment 51% 55% 48% 56% 41% 45% 57% 58% 50% 54% 49%

Happiness 48% 48% 49% 61% 44% 41% 48% 49% 49% 53% 45%

Stress 38% 33% 43% 46% 38% 41% 43% 27% 37% 38% 37%

Worry 30% 25% 35% 37% 32% 32% 32% 22% 28% 30% 31%

Anxiety 26% 21% 30% 32% 24% 29% 23% 22% 27% 26% 26%

Physical Pain 23% 22% 25% 22% 19% 20% 27% 28% 19% 20% 27%

Boredom 21% 19% 23% 41% 18% 23% 12% 14% 18% 20% 21%

Sadness 15% 12% 18% 24% 14% 14% 10% 12% 14% 14% 15%

Anger 15% 16% 15% 21% 19% 13% 15% 11% 15% 15% 16%

Loneliness 12% 11% 14% 20% 9% 13% 11% 11% 14% 13% 12%

Fear 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 6% 3% 7% 6% 7% 8%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Momentum

Q3 2015 has got off to a positive start,

showing real momentum in our Economic

Recovery Index – there seems to be a

genuine willingness to spend.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress

over the rest of the year – and keep you

posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Trends Report

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t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amarach economic recovery index july 2015

Lifestyle

economic recovery index

economic progress

current economic situation

emotional recovery

stages of recovery

recovery mindset

deep recession

consumer impact