amarach economic recovery index september 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

September 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

September 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 16th to 22nd September 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Aug’12: 42% Sept’12: 46%

Aug’12: 31% Sept’12: 28%

Aug’12: 25% Sept’12: 23%

Aug’12: 2% Sept’12: 2%

Aug’12: 0% Sept’12: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

We have seen a fall back in the economic outlook since July:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has weakened since July though is higher than September last year:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, September 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan '12 Mar May July Sept


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%25%25%27%27%24%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60% 62%55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52%53%

54%55%

50% 46% 44%33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%47%46%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Looking Ahead: 1

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”


September 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 6% 8% 4% 7% 6% 9% 6% 3% 5% 7%

Slightly Agree 18% 19% 18% 24% 21% 15% 17% 16% 21% 16%

Neither/Nor 10% 9% 10% 13% 12% 10% 3% 9% 9% 11%

Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 30% 23% 22% 23% 25% 27% 22%

Strongly Disagree 35% 35% 34% 15% 26% 42% 46% 43% 33% 37%


Looking Ahead: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –

who agree/disagree with the statement:

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”


September

2012 Total AIB BOI

Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%

Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%

Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%

Slightly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 23% 23% 28% 26% 28% 24% 23% 24% 27% 21%

Strongly Disagree 35% 33% 34% 40% 33% 32% 35% 36% 37% 29% 30% 31% 34%


Recovery Outlook 2



48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47%43%47%

45%45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%

34%33%37%

41%40%42%38%36%38%39%

35%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%

45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%

45%45%43%46%42%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Heads Down: 1


“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 1001 495

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 11% 9% 9%

Slightly Agree 27% 28% 25% 24% 32% 18% 22% 32% 27% 28%

Neither/Nor 13% 12% 14% 18% 14% 13% 7% 13% 13% 12%




Heads Down: 2



“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


September 2012 Total AIB BOI Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 12%

Slightly Agree 18% 20% 19% 16% 21% 18% 16% 16% 19% 22% 23% 22% 19%

Neither/Nor 10% 10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8%




Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40%39%

30%35%36%

33%28%27%

14%

18%

25%

20%

21%17%

25%20%

16%11%

16%15%13%12%12%16%

23%24%

14%12%17%15%16%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21%22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20%21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21%17%19%16%15%15%18%15%15%

19%22%25%19%17%20%18%18%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: September 2010, 2011, 2012 & September 2012

18% 14% 17% 13%

Sept'10 Sept'11 Aug'12 Sept'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62% 57%64% 62%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

24% 23% 28% 26%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

27% 23% 25% 24%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

56% 59% 54% 56%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Spendthrift: 1


“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 2% 6% 3% 4% 2% 4% 3%

Slightly Agree 10% 12% 7% 15% 13% 9% 6% 6% 9% 10%

Neither/Nor 16% 17% 16% 17% 17% 14% 10% 20% 18% 15%




Spendthrift: 2



“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”


September

2012 Total AIB BOI

Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 3% 4% 3% 1% 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 7% 3% 3%

Slightly Agree 10% 10% 9% 8% 11% 7% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 16% 13%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 18% 13% 18% 14% 11% 17% 18% 15% 16% 13% 15%




Rainy Day: 1


“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 478 523

Strongly Agree 11% 11% 11% 22% 12% 8% 3% 9% 9% 12%

Slightly Agree 15% 15% 16% 19% 22% 13% 9% 13% 16% 14%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 18% 22% 16% 15% 15% 24% 19% 18%




Rainy Day: 2



“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”


September

2012 Total AIB BOI

Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1001 385 293 113 412 177 147 277 349 201 207 243 92

Strongly Agree 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 14% 13% 12% 11% 12% 14% 14% 15%

Slightly Agree 15% 16% 16% 10% 17% 19% 10% 15% 15% 15% 18% 20% 19%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 21% 16% 20% 15% 17% 18% 21% 15% 19% 17% 18%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods: 1



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1001 474 527 175 202 198 155 271 491 510

Enjoyment 51% 51% 51% 56% 45% 38% 49% 62% 57% 45%

Happiness 51% 46% 55% 62% 50% 46% 41% 53% 53% 48%

Stress 42% 41% 43% 46% 45% 50% 44% 31% 43% 42%

Worry 41% 39% 42% 42% 43% 46% 42% 33% 38% 43%

Anxiety 29% 30% 27% 29% 33% 30% 32% 22% 28% 29%

Boredom 27% 27% 28% 50% 31% 27% 20% 14% 25% 30%

Physical Pain 22% 21% 23% 13% 18% 23% 27% 27% 19% 24%

Sadness 17% 16% 18% 25% 15% 18% 19% 12% 14% 21%

Anger 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 17% 11% 11% 13% 15%

Fear 10% 11% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 7% 9% 10%


% saying Yes: September 2012


Changing Moods: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper:

did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: September 2012


September

2012 Total AIB BOI

Ulster

Bank Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

1001 384 292 113 413 178 145 277 352 200 209 243 94

Enjoyment 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 46% 51% 47% 52% 52% 57% 55% 49%

Happiness 51% 55% 51% 44% 52% 44% 54% 49% 51% 47% 57% 50% 55%

Stress 42% 39% 42% 49% 44% 42% 45% 40% 39% 45% 36% 44% 52%

Worry 41% 40% 40% 38% 42% 40% 40% 41% 36% 43% 36% 38% 46%

Anxiety 29% 27% 29% 35% 33% 25% 24% 29% 25% 33% 30% 27% 34%

Boredom 27% 27% 26% 30% 27% 29% 31% 25% 25% 35% 26% 24% 32%

Physical Pain 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% 18% 26% 22% 20% 20% 22%

Sadness 17% 14% 21% 19% 17% 19% 12% 14% 18% 19% 15% 16% 21%

Anger 14% 15% 11% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 15% 16% 11% 12% 18%

Fear 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 6% 11% 9% 10% 11% 10% 11%


Anxious Times

This month’s ERI report combines a mix of

good news and bad: though more of the latter

unfortunately.

The percentage of consumers ‘relaxed about

spending money’ is the lowest in nearly 20

months – not good heading towards Christmas.

That said, it is clear that certain sub-groups –

and brands, e.g.: The Irish Times – have

customer bases that are slightly more inclined

to spend, though not hugely inclined.

As ever, the challenge for growth-hungry Irish

marketers is to identify and go after the groups

that will help you meet your goals: preferably

before your competitors do so.


Let’s Get Visual

If you find Amárach’s Economic

Recovery Index useful (and we

know many of you do) then you

might be interested in our data

visualisation initiative with

Delphi Analytics.

We have partnered to create

an extraordinarily powerful

resource online – for free – to

enable marketers and others to

look at the historical trend in

the ERI going back to April

2009 by demographic group,

main bank etc.

Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-

analytics/economic-recovery-index/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international

clients. We specialise in turning information

into insight; and insight into foresight.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a

unique field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amarach economic recovery index september 2012

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