amarach economic recovery index june 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

June 2015

© Amárach Research


On the Mend

We have been measuring the Economic

Recovery Index every month since April 2009:

and it’s final starting to pick up.

The most recent results for June 2015 show

us back to the recent peak in April 2015,

though things have ‘plateaued’ a little – albeit

at levels not seen in the previous 6 years.

So it’s still a positive picture, and a much

better place to be in when compared to the

darker days we tracked back in 2009 and

2010…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to June 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 15th to 22nd June 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was nearly six years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Having broken through the 40 mark in April, the ERI has more or less plateaued since:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, June 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'15

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

the ERI has plateaued in Q2 2015…


A Matter of Measurement

May ’15: 14% June ’15: 14%

May ’15: 34% June ’15: 32%

May ’15: 34% June ’15: 35%

May ’15: 17% June ’15: 16%

May ’15: 1% June ’15: 2%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people now say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jun-09 52 27 19 2 0 17.8

Jun-10 33 36 27 3 1 25.3

Jun-11 46 28 23 2 1 20.4

Jun-12 50 29 20 1 0 18.2

Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5

Jun-14 24 33 35 8 1 32.5

May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4

Jun-15 14 32 35 16 2 39.8

June 2015 remains close to April’s peak, more than twice six years ago…

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jun-09 44 51 65 61

Jun-10 42 45 54 50

Jun-11 23 34 47 44

Jun-12 25 36 43 45

Jun-13 33 40 48 46

Jun-14 37 42 50 45

May-15 39 43 52 41

Jun-15 44 41 51 40

key financial wellbeing indicators remain mostly unchanged…


Some Comfort

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


June 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 11% 13% 10% 14% 11% 8% 5% 15% 12% 16% 7%

Slightly Agree 30% 30% 30% 28% 31% 27% 27% 35% 28% 36% 25%

Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 21% 25% 21% 16% 14% 20% 17% 21%

Slightly Disagree 20% 17% 22% 20% 14% 21% 27% 19% 20% 15% 23%

Strongly Disagree 17% 16% 19% 14% 15% 20% 23% 16% 17% 14% 21%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jun-09 16

Jun-10 22 24 61 30

Jun-11 14 25 59 23

Jun-12 15 25 55 23

Jun-13 21 28 54 23

Jun-14 25 26 54 26

May-15 27 24 51 24

Jun-15 30 27 54 27

the % more relaxed about spending is back to April’s historic peak…


Rising Spenders

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”

% Agree: April 2009 to June 2015


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne


Spendthrifters

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 7% 7% 8% 10% 7% 6% 5% 8% 8% 7% 8%

Slightly Agree 22% 23% 22% 20% 26% 18% 20% 25% 23% 27% 19%

Neither/Nor 20% 23% 17% 21% 24% 18% 15% 19% 20% 21% 18%

Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 27% 28% 19% 32% 26% 25% 29% 25% 26%

Strongly Disagree 23% 20% 25% 16% 19% 24% 32% 22% 18% 18% 26%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to June 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Enjoyment 52% 53% 52% 60% 45% 44% 48% 61% 52% 54% 50%

Happiness 52% 52% 52% 60% 51% 44% 50% 54% 52% 57% 48%

Stress 37% 36% 39% 43% 41% 42% 44% 24% 41% 38% 37%

Worry 34% 29% 39% 43% 36% 35% 31% 29% 35% 33% 35%

Anxiety 28% 24% 31% 37% 27% 27% 27% 23% 29% 29% 26%

Physical Pain 24% 23% 24% 18% 20% 23% 27% 28% 26% 19% 27%

Boredom 26% 25% 26% 47% 25% 20% 25% 16% 25% 27% 24%

Sadness 18% 14% 22% 21% 19% 17% 13% 19% 18% 19% 18%

Loneliness 13% 10% 16% 13% 13% 15% 13% 11% 10% 12% 14%

Anger 14% 13% 15% 17% 15% 20% 13% 9% 15% 14% 14%

Fear 9% 8% 10% 12% 11% 14% 6% 6% 9% 8% 10%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Momentum

After six long years, it’s good to see real

momentum coming through in our Economic

Recovery Index – consumers are loosening

their purse and wallet strings, and there

seems to be a genuine willingness to spend.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress in

the months ahead – and keep you posted

about Ireland’s consumers & their needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amarach economic recovery index june 2015

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