amdsb enrolment projections presentation_2011

A Demographic Overview and Projected Enrolment

Avon Maitland District School BoardTuesday, March 22, 2011

Presented By:

Jack Ammendolia, Director

The Ammendolia Group Ltd.

TAG the ammendolia group ltd.

Projecting School Enrolment

Enrolment projections are dependant on a variety of demographic, social and economic factors on a national, provincial and local scale.

Things like;

Birth trends Immigration and migration Economic upswings or downturns Housing development and affordability Provincial policies

Can all affect enrolment for a school board.

To understand future enrolment trends for your school board and put them in perspective, it is helpful to understand national and provincial population trends.

Population Trends

The National Perspective•The Canadian population grew more rapidly between 2001 and 2006 than the previous census period (5.4% compared with 4%).

• Canada had a higher rate of growth from 2001 and 2006 than any other of the G8 countries.

• About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase.

Alberta and Ontario were responsible for more than 2/3’s of Canada’s population growth.

While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of school aged children dropped to 5.2 million in 2005-06, down 3% from 1999.

Ontario

The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.

Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006,

600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.

The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it has for more than a decade. This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth.

Ontario and School Aged Population Trends

CENSUS POPULATION

Age 1996 2001Change 1996-

2001 2006Change 2001-

20060-3 581,745 529,145 - 52,600 535,210 6,065

4-13 1,490,495 1,547,950 57,455 1,507,260 - 40,690 14-18 702,110 776,600 74,490 838,420 61,820

0-3 Years 4-13 Years 14-18 Years0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

Population Trends, 1996-2006

199620012006

AGE

POPU

LATI

ON

Ontario Highlights

After more than a decade of declines in the pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of Ontario experienced a slight increase of just over 1% or approximately 6,000 0-3 year olds from 2001-2006, according to the 2006 Census.

The elementary aged population experienced a decline of -2.6% from 2001-2006, while the secondary aged population increased by 8% over the same time period.

Larger grade cohorts in the senior elementary grades continue to age and move to secondary and are being replaced by significantly smaller cohorts – accounting for the declines in the elementary population and increases in

the secondary. In the short to mid term, historical elementary declines will begin to impact

secondary enrolment.

Ontario - What To Expect?

Ontario-wide births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. From 2002-2005, births have

increased by more than 5%.

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000

Ontario Live Births

YEAR

NUM

BER

OF

BIRT

HS

The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 11% lower than levels from the

early 1990’s

Cautious Optimism

Recent demographic and socio-economic trends, combined with robust growth forecasts for the Province suggest that the declining school age population trends may begin to stabilize in the short to mid term.

There are, however, important indicators that should be highlighted and monitored.

Census Census % Change Census % ChangeAGE 1996 2001 1996-2001 2006 2001-2006

25-34 873,535 797,790 -8.7% 793,090 -0.6%

35-44 909,250 995,685 9.5% 979,060 -1.7%

TOTAL 1,782,785 1,793,475 0.6% 1,772,150 -1.2%

The table below outlines the female population aged 25-44. The recent increases in births and pre-school aged children is consistent with a slight

increase in the 25-44 year old females from 96-01. This same group experienced a decline of 1.2% from 2001-2006.

THE AVON MAITLAND DSB

After a decline in 2002, births have been increasing.

The pre-school and school aged populations have all declined from 2001 to 2006.

The demographics suggest that enrolment declines are likely to continue in the short term but increases in births may stabilize the declines in the mid-term.

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Number of Births

AMDSB JURISDICTION 2001-2006

AGE ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE

0-3 Years Old -340 -5.32%4-13 Years Old -1,715 -8.96%

14-18 Years Old -280 -2.72%Age 18 and over 2,615 2.68%Total Population 280 0.21%

Females Aged 25-44 -1,290 -7.39%

0-3 4-13 14-18 18+0

100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000

2001 2006

Enrolment Projection Indicators

Demographic and certain socio-economic characteristics have a significant impact on future enrolment, however there are other factors that can

impact projected enrolment.

Other important factors that affect the forecasting of school enrolment deal with trends in the enrolment itself.

Junior Kindergarten trends and participation rates Grade Structure Ratios Grade 9 participation rates Returning grade 12’s ENROLMENT SHARE

Junior Kindergarten Participation Rates

The JK grade or entry year into school systems plays an important role in determining future enrolment.

SINGLE YEAR OF AGE 2001 20060 1,585 1,4951 1,465 1,4602 1,690 1,5403 1,625 1,5504 1,670 1,5105 1,840 1,6456 1,835 1,5407 1,790 1,7108 1,890 1,7059 2,015 1,720

10 2,030 1,85511 2,080 1,89512 1,955 1,83513 2,025 1,955

JK HEADCOUNT ENROLMENT 923 940

ELEMENTARY HEADCOUNT ENROLMENT 13,152 11,618

JK PARTICIPATION 55% 62%

ELEMENTARY PARTICIPATION 69% 67%

Grade Structure Ratio

The grade structure ratio is a comparison of senior elementary students (grade 6-8) to junior elementary students (JK-1). A ratio of 1 means that the senior and junior cohorts are equal to each other. A ratio lower than 1 could indicate short term increases, while a ratio higher than 1 could indicate short

term declines.

HISTORICAL ENROLMENT

Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Current

GRADES 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/

(ADE) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

JK 923 1,007 951 899 955 940 917 914 913

SK 1,175 1,108 1,179 1,085 1,017 1,042 1,028 1,006 1,000

1 1,380 1,264 1,169 1,246 1,137 1,047 1,070 1,045 1,0086 1,435 1,344 1,320 1,243 1,232 1,256 1,187 1,102 1,1937 1,384 1,416 1,357 1,332 1,250 1,247 1,251 1,202 1,1078 1,312 1,370 1,420 1,366 1,322 1,240 1,249 1,266 1,210

GSR 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.22 1.22 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.20

Secondary Factors

The retention of a board’s grade 8 students into grade 9 can have a significant impact on secondary enrolments. Open access allows students to attend the board of their

choice for secondary school instruction.

The full impact of eliminating OAC’s is still being determined as the percentage of returning grade 12’s varies from board to board and school to school.

2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ Avg. Avg.

Secondary School 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2002-2009 Last 5 Yrs.

Central Huron Secondary School 81% 92% 85% 88% 86% 92% 86% 95% 88% 89%F.E. Madill Secondary School 137% 142% 130% 136% 135% 152% 154% 145% 141% 144%Goderich District Collegiate Institute 109% 99% 113% 108% 126% 113% 125% 127% 115% 120%Listowel District Secondary School 128% 144% 128% 132% 135% 132% 132% 142% 134% 135%Mitchell District High School 105% 92% 84% 75% 93% 88% 106% 89% 91% 90%South Huron District High School 135% 121% 134% 130% 125% 157% 139% 127% 133% 135%St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 121% 126% 116% 137% 139% 140% 136% 137% 131% 138%Stratford Central Secondary School 64% 66% 104% 100% 110% 76% 102% 110% 92% 100%Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 145% 140% 79% 92% 84% 123% 103% 94% 107% 99%

Enrolment Share and Participation Rates

The participation share of the population and the share of enrolment between school boards can affect future enrolment independent of all other factors.

2001 2006 DifferenceElementary Enrolment (Headcount) 13,152 11,618 -1,533Elementary Aged Population 19,130 17,415 -1,715 Elementary Participation Rates 68.7% 66.7% -2.0%

2001 2006 DifferenceSecondary Enrolment (Headcount) 7,512 6,919 -593Secondary Aged Population 10,310 10,030 -280 Secondary Participation Rates 72.9% 69.0% -3.9%

AMDSB - ELEMENTARY SHARE

2001/02 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07

SHARE 80% 78% 78% 78%

AMDSB - SECONDARY SHARE

School 2001/02 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07

SHARE 82% 79% 80% 80%

Enrolment From New Housing Development

The projection of new housing growth has a significant impact on projected enrolment.

According to County and Municipal growth forecasts approximately 6,364 new housing units are projected to be built in the Board’s jurisdiction over the next 15 years. 68% of future units are expected to be built in Perth County and 32% in Huron County.

The new housing units are expected to generate almost 1,150 new elementary students and more than 550 new secondary students for the Board over the next 15 years.

TOTAL ELEMENTARY

Between 2001 and 2009 elementary enrolment declined by 18.5% . 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Elementary Enrolment 12,103 11,973 11,656 11,344 10,986 10,628 10,410 10,154 9,869

PROJECTED ENROLMENT Current Year 5 Year 10 Year 15

GRADES 2009/ 2014/ 2019/ 2024/ADE 2010 2015 2020 2025JK 457 489 507 513SK 500 522 539 5521 1,008 932 951 9862 1,040 926 929 9663 1,060 999 918 9544 1,046 990 906 9405 1,093 968 899 9306 1,193 983 892 9107 1,107 1,007 895 8988 1,210 1,032 969 891

Special Education 75 62 62 62Alternative/Other 81 73 73 73

Existing 9,869 8,981 8,539 8,673New 329 807 1,145Total 9,869 9,310 9,347 9,819

New Units 2,230 4,292 6,364

RA01 – Stratford, Parts Perth East & Perth South(Anne Hathaway, Avon, Bedford, Downie, Hamlet, Easthope, Romeo, Shakespeare, Sprucedale, Central, Northwestern, Central Perth)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 129 123 124 -4% 0% -4%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 166 172 143 3% -17% -14%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 384 273 293 -29% 7% -24%

Total Population 39,210 39,797 587 1.5% 6 405 348 361 -14% 4% -11%0-3 Years 1,918 1,816 -102 -5.3% 7 370 363 306 -2% -16% -17%4-13 Years 5,394 5,091 -302 -5.6% 8 354 309 359 -13% 16% 1%14-18 Years 2,788 2,779 -9 -0.3% TOTAL 3,274 2,960 2,856 -10% -4% -13%Over 18 Years 29,110 30,110 1,000 3.4% GSR 1.66 1.79 1.84 8% 2% 10%

Females 25-44 5,580 5,271 -308 -5.5%Total Occupied Dwellings: 15,287 15,929 641 4.2%

2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 66.2% 63.9% -2.2% EXIST 2,623 2,391 2,358 -498 -17%

Share W/ HPCDSB 73.5% 72.7% -0.8% NEW 111 328 428

TOTAL 2,734 2,719 2,786 -70 -2%NEW UNITS 775 1,510 2,213

YIELD 0.179 0.240 0.207

AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE

PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA02 – St. Mary’s, Part Perth South(South Perth, Little Falls, St. Mary’s DCVI)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 29 34 40 16% 19% 38%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 42 31 35 -27% 15% -16%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 88 78 77 -12% -1% -13%

Total Population 8,275 8,517 242 2.9% 6 103 81 76 -21% -6% -26%0-3 Years 374 394 20 5.3% 7 101 93 63 -7% -32% -37%4-13 Years 1,227 1,113 -114 -9.3% 8 92 88 87 -4% -1% -5%14-18 Years 605 674 69 11.4% TOTAL 845 721 676 -15% -6% -20%Over 18 Years 6,069 6,336 267 4.4% GSR 1.86 1.85 1.49 -1% -20% -20%


2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 74.6% 70.5% -4.0% EXIST 652 652 693 17 2%


TOTAL 696 734 822 146 22%NEW UNITS 230 460 690

YIELD 0.236 0.198 0.201


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA03 – Perth West(Upper Thames)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 31 38 29 22% -23% -6%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 43 42 43 -2% 3% 1%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 82 73 68 -11% -7% -17%

Total Population 9,130 8,835 -295 -3.2% 6 106 82 81 -23% -1% -24%0-3 Years 480 410 -70 -14.6% 7 104 77 60 -26% -22% -42%4-13 Years 1,460 1,250 -210 -14.4% 8 102 85 81 -17% -4% -20%14-18 Years 800 765 -35 -4.4% TOTAL 875 724 699 -17% -3% -20%Over 18 Years 6,390 6,410 20 0.3% GSR 2.00 1.60 1.59 -20% -1% -21%

Females 25-44 1,235 1,095 -140 -11.3%Total Occupied Dwellings: 3,160 3,140 20- -0.6%

2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 64.9% 64.3% -0.7% EXIST 680 661 687 -12 -2%


TOTAL 697 719 767 68 10%NEW UNITS 110 245 391

YIELD 0.200 0.270 0.221


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA04 – Part Perth East(Milverton, Mornington Central)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 11 12 11 7% -6% 0%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 25 30 27 20% -10% 8%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 60 46 39 -24% -14% -34%

Total Population 5,010 4,936 -74 -1.5% 6 47 46 44 -2% -3% -5%0-3 Years 308 310 2 0.7% 7 47 48 33 2% -31% -30%4-13 Years 824 806 -18 -2.2% 8 40 56 46 39% -17% 15%14-18 Years 422 387 -35 -8.3% TOTAL 446 402 380 -10% -6% -15%Over 18 Years 3,456 3,434 -23 -0.7% GSR 1.41 1.72 1.61 22% -6% 14%

Females 25-44 662 599 -64 -9.6%Total Occupied Dwellings: 1,587 1,593 6 0.4%


Share W/ HPCDSB 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% NEW 9 28 32

TOTAL 417 391 409 30 8%NEW UNITS 40 80 120

YIELD 0.269 0.386 0.287


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA05 – Perth North(Elma, Listowel Central, Listowel Eastdale, Wallace, Grey Central)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 65 75 59 16% -22% -10%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 74 61 62 -18% 1% -17%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 175 140 151 -20% 8% -14%

Total Population 12,055 12,250 195 1.6% 6 174 161 141 -7% -12% -19%0-3 Years 585 585 0 0.0% 7 176 160 174 -9% 9% -1%4-13 Years 1,765 1,620 -145 -8.2% 8 168 181 151 8% -16% -10%14-18 Years 1,030 965 -65 -6.3% TOTAL 1,568 1,436 1,348 -8% -6% -14%Over 18 Years 8,675 9,080 405 4.7% GSR 1.65 1.82 1.72 10% -5% 4%


2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 96.7% 97.1% 0.4% EXIST 1,139 1,060 1,077 -271 -20%


TOTAL 1,201 1,214 1,267 -81 -6%NEW UNITS 300 600 900

YIELD 0.260 0.286 0.226


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA06- South Huron, Part Bluewater(Exeter, Hensall, Stephen Central, Usborne, Zurich)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 49 37 41 -24% 10% -16%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 60 40 44 -33% 9% -27%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 158 76 81 -52% 7% -49%

Total Population 12,095 12,121 27 0.2% 6 145 144 104 -1% -28% -28%0-3 Years 454 456 3 0.6% 7 138 132 104 -4% -21% -25%4-13 Years 1,579 1,384 -195 -12.4% 8 134 104 104 -22% 0% -22%14-18 Years 901 825 -76 -8.4% TOTAL 1,256 988 820 -21% -17% -35%Over 18 Years 9,162 9,457 295 3.2% GSR 1.56 2.48 1.88 59% -24% 20%




TOTAL 711 724 761 -59 -7%NEW UNITS 158 285 419

YIELD 0.112 0.112 0.104


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA07 – East Huron, Part Bluewater(Huron, Seaforth)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 31 32 29 4% -10% -7%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 47 29 32 -38% 9% -32%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 98 76 56 -23% -26% -43%

Total Population 10,939 10,849 -90 -0.8% 6 76 86 111 13% 30% 46%0-3 Years 531 463 -68 -12.8% 7 99 91 82 -8% -10% -17%4-13 Years 1,581 1,468 -113 -7.2% 8 81 84 92 4% 10% 14%14-18 Years 879 762 -116 -13.2% TOTAL 796 758 676 -5% -11% -15%Over 18 Years 7,949 8,156 208 2.6% GSR 1.46 1.91 2.46 31% 29% 68%


2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 55.2% 55.8% 0.6% EXIST 525 498 507 -169 -25%

Share W/ HPCDSB 79.9% 80.7% 0.9% NEW 22 47 59

TOTAL 547 545 566 -110 -16%NEW UNITS 155 275 402

YIELD 0.164 0.187 0.156


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

RA08 – ACW, M-Turnberry, Howick, Goderich, Central & North Huron(Blyth, Brookside, Brussels, Clinton, Colborne, E. Wawanosh, Holmesville, Howick, Hullett, Turnberry, Goderich, GDCI)

GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 118 120 125 2% 5% 6%

2001 2006 Absolute % SK 132 117 116 -11% -1% -12%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 337 287 243 -15% -15% -28%

Total Population 36,662 36,350 -312 -0.9% 6 380 310 275 -19% -11% -28%0-3 Years 1,746 1,621 -125 -7.1% 7 351 284 285 -19% 0% -19%4-13 Years 5,301 4,684 -617 -11.6% 8 343 335 290 -2% -13% -15%14-18 Years 2,886 2,873 -13 -0.5% TOTAL 3,045 2,637 2,415 -13% -8% -21%Over 18 Years 26,730 27,172 443 1.7% GSR 1.83 1.77 1.75 -3% -1% -4%


2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 62.1% 61.4% -0.8% EXIST 2,257 2,218 2,255 -160 -7%


TOTAL 2,307 2,300 2,441 26 1%NEW UNITS 463 837 1,230

YIELD 0.126 0.108 0.161


PROJECTED CHANGE

2001-2006

TOTAL SECONDARY - HISTORICAL

HISTORICAL ENROLMENT Enrolment Change

2001/02 - 2009/10

GRADES 2001/ 2006/ 2009/ Absolute %(ADE) 2002 2007 2010 Change Change

9 1,598 1,488 1,479 -119 -7%10 1,652 1,507 1,454 -198 -12%11 1,472 1,449 1,495 24 2%12 1,583 1,267 2,091 508 32%

OAC 616 432 0 SE 95 198 0

ALT 174 345 0 TOTAL 7,188 6,685 6,519 -669 -9%

2001 2006 20096,000

6,500

7,000

7,500Historical Enrolment

TOTAL SECONDARY - PROJECTED

Current Year 5 Year 10 Year 15GRADES 2009/ 2014/ 2019/ 2024/

ADE 2010 2015 2020 20259 1,479 1,160 1,115 1,02010 1,454 1,236 1,083 1,01411 1,495 1,324 1,114 1,01112 2,091 1,691 1,517 1,344

Exist 6,519 5,411 4,829 4,390New 189 319 564

Total 6,519 5,600 5,149 4,954

New Units 2,230 4,292 6,364

Average Yield 0.104 0.082 0.095

PROJECTED ENROLMENT

Historical Year 5 Year 10 Year 154,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

Historical Enrolment