01 el niño impact and recovery monitoring program zb 2016 · moderate - strong el niño very...

El Niño Impact and Recovery

Monitoring Program

Kiritimati, Kiribati

Zulfikar Begg, Herve Damlamian, Cyprien Bosserelle, Salesh Kumar, Amrit Raj, Kataebati Bataua

Geoscience Division, Pacific Community, Fiji Islands

Background

2014Request for technical assistance sent to SPC’s Geoscience Division

(GSD) by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources

Development (MFMRD)

2015• Baseline Data acquisition by SPC

Objective: Identify vulnerable areas to assist decision makers

for future developments planning.

• SPC funds via an annual grant from New Zealand (NZROSP)

• Climate outlook sent to GoK

2016• January Inundation Event: GoK requested SPC to undertake post

inundation survey

• 1 year monitoring program

Concept – Phase 1-2015• Baseline data:

– Geodetic

– Topography

– Infrastructure data

• Inundation Hazard:

– Water level

– Sea Level Rise

• Erosion- Shoreline Change analysis

• Develop Decision Making Tool:– Coastal Management

– Urban Planning

– Disaster risk reduction

Collaborative Approachbetween SPC and GoK(MFMRD & Lands) with astrong capacity buildingcomponent.

1 Year Monitoring Program

Phase 2-2016co-funded by NZROSP and the GEF Reef to Ridge Project

• Oceanographic data:

– Current Meter near the picnic area.

– 2 Wave gauges on the Ocean side

– 1 Tide gauge on the Lagoon side

• 3D Shoreline Change – Impact and Potential recovery.

- Compare Topography data from March 2015 (prior El Nino), May 2016,

~August 2016, ~December 2016.

• Change in Lagoon Habitat

– Compare 2015 Habitat map with August 2016.

Project Site

Normal Conditions

http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/

Nov 2015-Jan 2016 SST Anomaly

SEA LEVEL ANOMALIES – REAL TIME – 03/11/2015

MEAN LEVEL OF THE SEA IN LINE ISLANDS: + 0.30m

source: http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/

http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/

Feb-April 2016 SST Anomaly

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index_5km_ssta_max_yeartodate.php

Jan-May 2016 NOAA CRW Bleach Alert

CBC News: "It looked like a ghost

town. The structure is still there,

all the buildings are still standing

but there is no-one home.

Meaning all the corals are

dead," says Julia Baum

HISTORICAL EL NINO EVENT IN KIRITIMATI

The 10 Largest water level recorded occurred during EL Niño

30 LARGEST WAVE FOR

KIRITIMATI OVER THE LAST 34

YEARS

2/3 Occurred during EL Niño

4 out of the 6 largest Swell

that reached Kiritimati

occurred during strong EL

Niño event.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Ann

ual r

ainf

all (

mm

)

Year

Annual rainfall v El Niño episodes, Kiritimati

Moderate - Strong El Niño

Very Strong El Niño

Baseline data collection

Geodetic data

Water Level

Baseline data collection

Geodetic data

Shoreline Change 2002-2015

March 2015 May 2016

Coastal Impact driven by 2016

El Niño at Koil, Kiritimati

2015 Beach Profile

2016 Beach Profile

EROSION

ACCRETION

March 2015 May 2016

Coastal Impact driven

by 2016

El Niño in Tabwakea,

Kiritimati

EROSION

ACCRETION

Conclusion

• The Pacific Islands are among those countries suffering the most from El Niño

• It is important to understand and quantify the possible impacts of El Niño in order to help improve resilience

• Wave runup increases for higher water levels (expected with sea-level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness(loss of corals)

• Coastlines continuously adjust towards more dynamic equilibrium but its state depends on wave climate and coastal processes.

• Although global or regional predictions provide useful info, the data needs to be downscaled to account for local conditions.

• Improve Coastal management� More localized studies: Coastal processes, wave climate, shoreline

response, reef check

Vinaka and

special

thanks to

the Ministry

of Line and

Phoenix,

MFMRD,

MELAD