02 alex polfiet - zero emission solutions en

De Belgian market: what are the possibilities for further growth?

Installed Capacity Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Belgium in the world Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Global Solar List 1. Germany 16 GWp 2. Spain 4 GWp 3. Japan 3 GWp 4. China 2 GWp 5. USA 1.8 GWp 6. Italy 1.5 GWp 7. Czech Rep. 1,4 GWp 8. Belgium 0,8 GWp 9. India 10. South-Korea

South-­‐Korea  

China  

United  States  

Japan  

Rest  of  the  EU  

France  

Belgium  

Czech  Republic  

Italy  

Rest  of  the  world  

Germany  

Global PV-market 2009

Flanders (preliminary) top Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Flanders

Brussels

Wallonia

Total

700 MWp

5,1 MWp

140 MWp

845,1 MWp

Growth Capacity 2010 Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Flanders

Brussels

Wallonia

+ 160 MWp

+ 4 MWp

+ 84,4 MWp

Market Segments Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Potential Market Segments Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Special market segments

- Brussels ! - Wallonia untill 01/08/2013 - Flanders:

- Private - Due to tax deductions also attractive after 2011

- Agricultural section - VLIF = 8 % investment support

- KMO’s with high electricity costs - For marketing purposes - As risk management strategy !

Expected Electricy Costs Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Minimal growth in electricity costs KMO

- Commodity : + 8 €/MWh (CO2) + 8,4 €/MWh (oil -gas) - Transport costs: + 1 % annually - Distribution costs: + 1% annually+ 5 €/MWh in 2014 - GSC-WKC: according to set quota - Federal contribution: lineair average growth - Financing: off-shore: according to planning - Other: + 1 % on average

⇒ Expected growth in 2021 = from 96,5 €/MWh to 151,2 €/MWh = growth of 57 %

Policies 2011-2012 Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

PV Policies Flanders Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Flanders

• Quicker digression on support from 01/07/2011 on • Expansion > 10 kWp within 24 m = no more GSC’s • 1 MWp = min 50 % local consumption

⇒ Installations > 1 MWp: unprofitable from 01/07/2011 ⇒ Installations> 10 kWp < 1 MWp : profitable until 01/01/2012 ⇒ Installations< 10 kWp: dpending on tax deductions

PV Policies Wallonia Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Wallonia

• New rules from 01/08/2011 • Sell GSC’s at market value • Minimum garantee 65 € • Less restrictive

• 50 % autoconsumption obligation expires • Audit cogénération obligation expires • 250 kWp limitation expires

⇒ With prsent market prices GSC’s maintain potential until 01/08/2014

PV Policies Brussels Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Brussels

• Ismaël Daoud

Comparison PV profitablity Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Comparison three Districts 177 kWp-installation

Limits to growth Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Growth expectancies? Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Brussels

Flanders

Wallonia

• Roof potential: 100 MWp • Problem: buildings usually not owned by the users

• Only sales to private sector will be able to survive • Possible revival of KMO’s if electricty costs rise

• Until 01/08/2014 no problem • + 400 MWp is realistic • Afterwards dependant on electricy costs

Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

Questions