1.5 target: how to understand it? - iges · 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 百万吨...

1.5℃ Target: how to understand it?

ERI, ChinaERI, China

Jiang Kejun

Energy Research InstitutePeking University

Japan-China Climate Policy Research Workshop 2017

Beijing , 6-7 Sep. 2017,

2oC Scenarios

Remaining CO2 budget vs.residual fossil emissions

3

1.5oC Scenarios

Cum

ulat

ive

2016

-210

0CO

2em

issi

ons

[GtC

O2]

1.5o

C

2oC

rang

e

2oC Scenarios

Luderer et al., in preparation Preliminary results

Residual emissions determined by • Pace of decarbonization• Configuration of (net) zero-carbon

and zero-emissions societyMain mitigation options:

• Demand reductions & efficiency improvements

• Electrification• switch to biomass / hydrogen / other

carbon-neutral fuels• Dietary changes, Synthetic feed and

meat• CDR & CCU

Consistent global and national emissions constraints

Preliminary results

[100

0 G

tCO

2]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billi

on t

CO2

CO2 Emission

BAU

LC

ELC

2度1

2度2

1.5度

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

百万

吨标

煤

年份

一次能源需求量，1.5℃情景A

Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass

PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Primary energy demand in China

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Coal Coke Oil

百万

吨标

煤

年均下降量，终端能源

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2040

2040-2050

Decrease of final energy demand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e煤炭消费量

其他

居民

供热

炼焦

建材

钢铁

发电

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

分部门终端能源需求

Rural Residential

Urban Residential

Service

Transport

Industry

Agriculture

Final Energy Demand by Sector

11

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

4500.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

ton-

CO2

CO2 emission in power sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

TPE, 1.5℃ Scenario

Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Power Generation, 1.5℃ Scenario

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

百万

吨CO

2

CO2排放量, 1.5度情景

CO2 Emission, 1.5℃

Near Zero Emission in Transport

Electric car/fuel cell car: 100% of market in 2025

Large vehicle：fuel cell vehicle by 2035

Vessel/ship：fuel cell by 2035

Airplane：biofuel by 2035，fuel cell starts from 2040

Other transport： electricity driven

四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析

4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Bio-fuel use in transport

Ethonal

Bio-Diesel

Near Zero Emission in Building

No fossil fuel use in building

Cooking：electrified，2035-2040

Space heating：electricity

Low emission in industry

Raising share of electricitydriven by electric motorsteel making: recycled steel with electric arc furnacerecycled metals

CCS utilization:steel making, cement manufacture

New industrial process: Reduction by hydrogen

0

100

200

300

400

500

200020052010201520202025203020402050

Mtce

E nergy use in transport

B io-D iesel

B io Jetfuel

E lectricity

N .G as

O il

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Energy use in industry

Electricity

Heat

N.Gas

Petroleum

Town Gas

Coke

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M

tce

Energy Demand in Building

Electricity

Heat

N.Gas

Petroleum

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

%CCS安装率

Clinker

Steel

CCS Utilization in industry

20

高效照明【如 LED照明】

光伏电池

能源检测系统

（家用电器)

生态生活教育

减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%

(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，转换效率接近30%

COP =8, 普及率 100%

超高效空调

太阳热利用

普及率: 20-60%（目前 6%）

热泵采暖

COP＝5普及率 30-70%

燃料电池

普及率 0-20%

高效绝热

减少50%照明需求，普及率 100%

待机电源耗电

降低1/3 ，普及率100%

2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能

屋顶植被

5

太阳能利用

高效家用电器减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式

向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为

低碳消费

减少10-20% 能源需求

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

百万

吨CO

2

CO2排放量

Industrial process

Coke making

Heat

End use

Power generation

CO2 Emission

22

Scenario Analysis:JapanKoreaChinaIndiaThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaNepalVietnamCambodiaLaosPhilippine

A 2 degree Asia: A good way to understand the global target

23

China’s FDI and ODI，1995-2014，US$100million

Low Carbon/Green Strategy for China’s Oversea Investment

ODI FDI

京津冀地区PM2.5浓度严重超标

2013-2015年PM2.5年均浓度2013年74个城市PM2.5年均浓度

2013年京津冀地区所有城市PM2.5年均浓度均超标，区域内PM2.5年平均浓度达106µg/m3，虽2014、2015年空气质量有所改善，但仍大幅超过国家空气质量二级标准。

35

实现WHO推荐标准，能源活动PM2.5相关排放为0