2016-06 shoe store employment update - fdra

Women's  Hiring  Behind  Record  Hourly  Wages  for  Shoe  Stores

Amid   a   tightening   US   labor   market   and   burgeoning   footwear   sales,   shoe   store   retailers   are   offering  record   pay   to   attract   and   retain  workers,  with   the   sector's  workforce   seeing   a  marked   shift   to   hiring  relatively   more   women   than  men.     Recently   the   federal   government   reported   its   latest   read   on   the  country's  employment  situation,  noting  the  unemployment  rate  fell   in  May  to   just  4.7%,  the   lowest   in  eight  and  a  half   years.    Average  hourly  earnings   for  all   employees  on  private  nonfarm  payrolls   rose  a  year-­‐over-­‐year   2.5%.    While  much   of   the   report   fell   short   of   expectations,   the   long-­‐term   trends   of   a  gradually  tightening  labor  market  and  rising  wages  remain  intact.  

As   the  national  unemployment   rate   falls  and  earnings   rise,  we  see  similar   trends   in   shoe  stores.    At  a  seasonally-­‐adjusted  record  of  $17.44,  average  hourly  earnings  in  the  sector  rose  a  year-­‐over-­‐year  1.8%  in   April,   higher   39   of   the   last   43  months.     As   the   graph   below   demonstrates,   higher  wages   come   as  employment  in  the  sector  grows,  rising  a  year-­‐over-­‐year  1.0%  to  a  seasonally-­‐adjusted  210,900  workers.    This   marks   the   highest   April   employment   on   record,   matching   the   largest   April   shoe   store   sales   on  record   as   FDRA   recently   reported.     (If   you   do   not   currently   receive   FDRA’s   monthly   Footwear   Sales  Analysis  report  and  would  like  to  do  so,  please  contact  us  at  info@fdra.org)    

Average  Hourly  Wages  in  Shoe  Stores  Rise  to  a  Record  to  Attract  &  Retain  Workers…

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Hourly  Earnings #  Employees

Source:    BLS  

Within  both   the  growth   in   shoe  store  employment  and   record  hourly  wages  paid   is  a  notable   shift   to  more  female  workers.    At  a  near-­‐record  126,200,  the  number  of  women  employed  in  the  sector  climbed  a  robust  7.3%  in  April  from  a  year  earlier,  the  19th  straight  increase.    At  the  same  time,  the  male  shoe  store  labor  force  sagged  again  in  this  latest  month  to  just  84,700,  the  fewest  in  two  and  a  half  years.    As  a  result,  women  now  account  for  nearly  60%  of  shoe  store  workers,  the  highest  share  in  several  years.  

…as  Women’s  Hiring  Climbs  to  a  Near  Record,  while  Men’s  Sags  to  a  30-­‐Month  Low

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Source:    BLS  

Looking  ahead,   improving  prospects   for  shoe  store  sales   imply  demand  for  workers  will   remain  strong  and  wages  may  remain  elevated.    FDRA  continues  to  expect  growth  in  shoe  store  sales  will  accelerate  in  2016  after  slowing  each  of  the  last  few  years.    Naturally,  improved  footwear  demand  likely  will  prompt  more  hiring  to  staff  stores.    Coupled  with  a  gradually  tighter  nationwide  labor  market,  stores'  efforts  to  attract   and   retain   workers   will   likely   boost   average   hourly   earnings   beyond   today's   record.     After   a  relatively  dull  start  to  the  year,  it  remains  to  be  seen  if  retail  shoe  prices  will  climb  appreciably  in  2016  to  offset  these  anticipated  rising  labor  costs,  providing  a  bit  of  breathing  room  to  retailers'  margins.