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2016-2040 Regional Transportation PlanSustainable Communities Strategy

(RTP/SCS)Development Framework

Joint Regional Council & Policy Committees’ MeetingFebruary 5, 2015

Our Goals TodayWhat is an RTP/SCS?RTP/SCS Overview

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

What has changed since we adopted the 2012 RTP/SCS?

What is our framework and schedule to adopt the 2016 RTP/SCS by April, 2016?

Challenges & Opportunities

What are the emerging demographic trends that will affect our future transportation and housing choices?

What challenges & opportunities facing the SCAG region can we address in the RTP/SCS?

How were these challenges addressed in the 2012 RTP/SCS?

RTP/SCS Overview

What is an RTP/SCS

Represents the long-term vision and accompanying investment framework to address regional transportation and land use challenges and opportunities in a region.

Secures federal funding for transportation projects Federal Requirements

Must be long-range: 20+ years into the future Must be financially-constrained: Revenues = Costs Must pass regional emission standards (Conformity)

State Requirements Must meet SB 375 requirements (address GHG reductions)

Regional Challenges

Poverty

Aging Infrastructure

Climate Change &

Environment

Economy & Revenue

Congestion

Qualityof Life

RTP/SCS Overview

RTP/SCS Overview

Past RTP/SCS AccomplishmentsInfrastructure Investment Alameda Corridor Metrolink System HOV SystemInitiated New Regional Policies Compass Blueprint program Created the subregional structure Heal the Bay program Regional aviation demand forecast Regional economic development initiatives Adopted first Sustainable Communities Strategy to reduce regional GHG

emissions

Continued Low Population Growth Declining Number of Children Annual Flow of New Immigrants is Plunging Foreign Born Peaked or Declining Long Settled Foreign Born Rise of the Immigrant Second Generation Slower Racial and Ethnic Change A Soaring Senior Ratio The Homegrown (growth from native Californians) Revolution Rising Index of Children’s Importance

Major Demographic TrendsChallenges & Opportunities

Millennials Entering the Workforce

The Intergenerational Partnership

Source: Dowell Myers, “The New Generation Future of Los Angeles,” 25th Annual Demographic Workshop, June 9, 2014.

Challenges & Opportunities

Projected Future Growth

1822

8 96 7

2008 2035

MIL

LIO

NS

People

Jobs

Households

adding thepopulationof approximatelyONE AND A HALFtimes ChicagoTo SouthernCalifornia

change of 4.2 million

change of 1.7 million

change of 1.5 million

Challenges & Opportunities

Where is Population Growth Coming From?

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year

1,651,392(97.3%)

45,959(2.7%)

1,697,351(100.0 %)

Births (less) Deaths Domestic Foreign Migration Total Increase

Southern California Sources of Population Growth, 2000-2010

Challenges & Opportunities

Population Shifts by Age Cohort

Note: Percentages do not add to 100% due to roundingSource: US Census Bureau, SCAG

5.5

6.4

10.6

11.8

2.0

4.0

2010

2035

Population by Age Group (in millions)0-20 21-64 65+

30%

29%

59%

53%

11%

18%

Challenges & Opportunities

Shift in Ages of the Population

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 1970-2040. Sacramento, CA, December 1998.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1970‐75 1975‐80 1980‐85 1985‐90 1990‐95 1995‐2000 2000‐05 2005‐10 2010‐15 2015‐20 2020‐25 2025‐29 2030‐35 2035‐40

Age 65+ Population Will Double

SCAG CA

Challenges & Opportunities

Implications of Changing Demographics

Increased demand for housing choices in central cities and mixed communities with shopping, health services, church and transportation options

Surplus of large-lot homes and increased demand for small lot homes

Increased demand for health care and social services Downward pressure on tax revenues Changing transportation preferences

Challenges & Opportunities

Much of Our Future Workforce is Living in Poverty

32.80%27.20% 26.50% 25.20%

19.80% 17.90% 17.70%

Imperial Los Angeles Inland Empire SCAG Region San Diego Orange Ventura

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2012

Share of Children Under 18 Living in Poverty for California Areas, 2012

Challenges & Opportunities

Major Unmet Adult Workforce Education Issuewith 1:2 to 1:3 Adults Marginally Educated

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2012

Share of Population High School or Less for California Areas, 2012

52.40% 52.10%46.70%

43.40%

35.50% 33.90% 33.10%29.70%

Imperial Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Ventura Orange San Diego Bay Area

5.02 MILLION marginally educated adultsin SCAG region alone

Challenges & Opportunities

$472

$651

$727

$777

$1,108

$1,329

$1,714

$1,623

11.0%

7.5%

7.0%

5.4%

4.0%

3.4%

2.3%

2.2%

ALL WORKERS: $827ALL WORKERS: 6.1%

DOCTOR’S DEGREE

PROFESSIONAL DEGREE

MASTER’S DEGREE

BACHELOR’S DEGREE

ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE

SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE

HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA

LESS THAN A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2013

MEDIAN WEEKLY

EARNINGS IN 2013

Challenges & Opportunities

From Poverty to Prosperity: Increasing Pathways to Jobs & Opportunity

Median Household Income

$80,317 $58,455

Challenges & Opportunities

California Education LevelsBachelor’s Degree or Higher

43.5% 29.0%

Challenges & Opportunities

Unemployment at a GlanceChallenges & Opportunities

Sectors with Lower Educational Requirements areCandidates for Good-Paying Job Growth

2012-2035 RTP/SCSA Job Creation EngineIn April 2012, SCAG unanimously adopted the its first RTP that includes a Sustainable Communities Strategy that: Invests nearly $525 billion over the next 25 years to upgrade the

region’s transportation system Was developed through a bottoms-up local

input process with unprecedented public outreach and stakeholder involvement

Reduces per capita GHG emissions 9% by 2020 and16% by 2035

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

Economy & Cost Effectiveness

Location Efficiency

over

TWICEas many

householdswill live in

high-qualitytransit opportunity

areas

Mobility

24% DECREASE

from today’s per capita delay

Improves Regional Economy

$2.90return for every

$1 spent

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

Benefits of the 2012 RTP/SCSPerformance Outcomes

Since the Plan was adopted in April 2012, almost $10 billion worth of capital projects have been completed including: Transit Projects (Light Rail, BRT, New

Buses, Commuter Rail Enhancements etc.)

Highway Improvements (HOV, HOT, Arterials etc. )

Active Transportation (Bike Paths, Transit Station/Stop Improvements, Sidewalks etc.)

SCAG Focus: Infrastructure Investment 2012 RTP/SCS

Accomplishments

Unprecedented collaboration with State and Federal partners e.g. California and National Freight Advisory Committees

Public-Private Partnership Finance and Delivery Strategies Screening for the East West Freight Corridor (EWFC)

Goods Movement Border Crossing Study

Industrial Warehousing Study in the SCAG Region

SCAG Focus: Goods Movement2012 RTP/SCS

Accomplishments

Nationally recognized for funding innovation

Passage of SB 1077: establish pilot program to explore MBUF Working with state partners on

pilot program testing Mileage Based User Fees

Held Mileage Based User Fee Workshop

SCAG Focus: Mileage Based User Fee (MBUF)

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

SCAG Focus: Active Transportation Funding

• $200 M awarded for first 3 years of Active Transportation Program (ATP)

• More than 100 CITIES in the SCAG Region applied for ATP funds

• SCAG Regional Safety & Encouragement Campaign $2.3 M to improve safety & encourage biking/walking

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

Sustainability Grant Program provides funding to local governments to link local land use plans to RTP/SCS goals

SCAG Focus: SCS Implementation

• 72 Planning projects funded ($10 million total) since 2012

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

Provide Leadership through Collaboration

and Partnerships

Integrate Public Health into Regional Planning

Activities

Provide Regional Support through Technical

Assistance

Randall Lewis Health Policy Fellowship

Safety and Encouragement

Campaign

Public Health Working Group

Active Transportation Health and Economic

Impact Study

Public Health White Paper to inform 2016

RTP/SCS

Active Transportation Trainings and Toolkits Website Upgrades

Goals and Strategies FY 14-15 Action Plan Deliverables

SCAG Focus: Public Health Work Program 2012 RTP/SCS

Accomplishments

Joint SCAG-County Transportation Commission Work Programs formally establishing partnerships on:

SCAG Focus: Collaboration

Climate Action Complete Streets Conservation Planning First-Last Mile Strategies Regional Sustainability

Performance Measurement and Monitoring

Safe Routes to School Active Transportation Funding

2012 RTP/SCSAccomplishments

CEQA Guidelines

Population

AHSC Funding Economy

Environment

SomethingElse

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

2016 RTP/SCS: Policy Challenges, Opportunities & Emerging Trends

CIRCA 1920

2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & Opportunities Passenger Rail

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Passenger Rail in Southern California

1990

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Passenger Rail & Transit2016 RTP/SCS Framework

2035

Metrolink/LOSSAN

Upgradesand California High-SpeedRail Phase 1

Bus Rapid Transit Expansion

THROUGHOUT THE REGION

Light & Heavy Rail Extensions

Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA

2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & OpportunitiesWhat About the Millennials?

Rapid adoption of new communication technologies

Travel fewer miles and makefewer trips

Less interested in car and house ownership

Rapidly adopting to the “shared” economy

Favor towards low-travel urban lifestyles with emphasis on walking, cycling, ride-sharing and transit

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Millennials Compared to Baby Boomers

2016 RTP/SCS Emerging Trends & OpportunitiesTransportation Technologies

Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs)

Urban Mobility Platforms eBikes Car/Bike Sharing Travel Planning Apps

Connected Vehicle Technologies Semi-automated drive modes Adaptive Cruise Control Lane centering Fully Autonomous Vehicles

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Enhanced transportation options and choices Economic development, job growth and improved access to

jobs/opportunities Improved public health Facilitate regional/local competitiveness for funding

AB 32 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (Cap and Trade) Active Transportation Program HCD Grants National Freight Strategic Plan Water bond/groundwater management

Assess new funding mechanism such as EIFD for sustainable infrastructure investment proposed in the RTP/SCS

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Anticipated General Results/Outcomes

Provide input to develop forecasts of future land use, population, household and employment growth & draft scenarios

Submit updated transportation projects for inclusion in RTP/SCS

Local Jurisdictions

County Transportation

Commissions

ON-GOING

Provide input on specific topic areas such as active transportation strategies, public health, open space and environmental justice

Other Stakeholders ON-GOING

ON-GOING

2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Bottom Up Planning Process

Planning Process – Policy Committees2016 RTP/SCS Framework

Transportation Investmento Roads and highwayso Transit (Bus, Rail and HSR)o Active Transportationo Operations and

Maintenanceo Transportation Demand

Managemento Transportation Systems

Management Goods Movement Regional Aviation Transportation Finance Emerging Transportation

Technology

TC Committee

Demographics and Growth Forecasting

Land Use Scenario Planning Housing Economic Development Sustainability Social Equity Environmental Justice

CEHD Committee

Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR) Transportation Conformity Greenhouse Gas Reductions Open Space/Habitat

Preservation Public Health

EEC Committee

Underway: Strategy & Scenario Development Summer 2015: Extensive Outreach & Public Workshops October 2015: Release of Draft 2016-2040 RTP/SCS

for public review Fall 2015: Elected officials workshops & public hearings Winter 2016: Review and address public comments April 2016: Adopt 2016-2040 RTP/SCS

2016 RTP/SCS FrameworkTimeline & Milestones

Planning for our Future

DISCUSSION

For more information visit www.scag.ca.gov