45472441 nomura-technical-insight-2010-12-15
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Nomura 1
• Index could work to regain April 2010 high by spring 2011: The TOPIX Core 30
Index bottomed at its 2 November low of 435. Assuming all goes well, it could seek to regain its 12 April 2010 high of 565 through spring 2011. With wave formation suggesting that the index has moved into an upward phase corresponding to upward wave 3, we think it could aim for 680, equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the fall between the February 2007 high of 1,140 and the March 2009 low of 395, over the medium term.
• Focusing on catch-up by laggard stocks: We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we regard the three megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306], Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316], and Mizuho Financial Group [8411], Nintendo [7974], Nippon Steel [5401], Toyota Motor [7203], and Seven & i Holdings [3382] as promising candidates to outperform the TOPIX. Many of these stocks have fallen through Oct–Nov, and have considerable return reversal potential from a chart perspective.
• Some stocks at forefront of rally likely to level off over short term: Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off, including some export-oriented companies such as Honda Motor [7267] and Canon [7751], Mitsui & Co [8031], and Mitsubishi Estate [8802]. With some of these stocks peaking out or already forming a dead cross in terms of TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week), we expect a correction over the near term. We also expect star stocks for 2010 such as Komatsu [6301] and Softbank [9984] to move into a holding pattern once the rally runs its course.
• Best to stay away from defensive stocks: Although defensive stocks appear to have broadly bottomed out, we think they will continue to underperform while they remain in a holding pattern. We think investors would be well advised to continue steering clear of stocks such as Tokyo Electric Power [9501], Kansai Electric Power [9503], Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502], Astellas Pharma [4503], Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432], and NTT Docomo [9437].
Technical insight
Shoichiro Yamauchi +81-3-5255-1792 shoichiro.yamauchi@nomura.com
TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points
1. Assuming all goes well, we expect the TOPIX Core 30 Index to seek to regain its April 2010 high through spring 2011. 2. We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we focus on the three megabanks, Nintendo, Nippon Steel, Toyota Motor, and Seven & i Holdings. 3. Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off. 4. With the market likely to remain in a holding pattern for now, we think investors would be best advised to continue avoiding defensive stocks.
15 December 2010 Japanese full report & English summary: 10 Dec
Report no. S10-078
Nikkei Average (10 December)
10,211.95
TOPIX (10 December) 888.22 Please read the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pp. 69-72.gl
Nomura Securities Co Ltd, Tokyo Investment Strategy
This report provides information that is derived from technical analysis and is intended as reference for investment decisions. As such, parameters such as the basis for opinions and the assumed duration of investment differ from those for the investment opinions by Nomura's fundamental analysts. Upside and downside targets for specific stocks in this report are derived by technical analysis using ratios such as the golden ratio (0.618 : 0.382) and differ from the target prices set by Nomura fundamental analysts based on earnings forecasts. Analysis in this report is based on historical share price data and is no guarantee of future performance.
Nomura Investment Strategy
2 Technical insight
1. TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points...................................................... 3
Japan Tobacco [2914] (¥291,000)....................................................................................................6 Seven and i Holdings [3382] (¥2,091)...............................................................................................8 Shin-Etsu Chemical [4063] (¥4,190) ...............................................................................................10 Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502] (¥3,970).........................................................................................12 Astellas Pharma [4503] (¥3,050) ....................................................................................................14 Nippon Steel [5401] (¥288) .............................................................................................................16 Komatsu [6301] (¥2,496) ................................................................................................................18 Toshiba [6502] (¥437).....................................................................................................................20 Panasonic [6752] (¥1,190)..............................................................................................................22 Sony [6758] (¥3,040) ......................................................................................................................24 Nissan Motor [7201] (¥815) ............................................................................................................26 Toyota Motor [7203] (¥3,280) .........................................................................................................28 Honda Motor [7267] (¥3,135)..........................................................................................................30 Canon [7751] (¥4,085) ....................................................................................................................32 Nintendo [7974] (¥23,520 OSE)......................................................................................................34 Mitsui & Co [8031] (¥1,379) ............................................................................................................36 Mitsubishi Corp [8058] (¥2,179)......................................................................................................38 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306] (¥402)................................................................................40 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316] (¥2,620)..........................................................................42 Mizuho Financial Group [8411] (¥137)............................................................................................44 Tokio Marine Holdings [8766] (¥2,389)...........................................................................................46 Mitsubishi Estate [8802] (¥1,433) ...................................................................................................48 East Japan Railway [9020] (¥5,220) ...............................................................................................50 Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432] (¥3,815).........................................................................52 KDDI [9433] (¥487,000) ..................................................................................................................54 NTT Docomo [9437] (¥137,600) .....................................................................................................56 Tokyo Electric Power [9501] (¥1,984).............................................................................................58 Kansai Electric Power [9503] (¥2,050)............................................................................................60 Softbank [9984] (¥3,000) ................................................................................................................62 Sample............................................................................................................................................64
Nomura Holdings [8604] is excluded from detailed analysis
Contents
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 3
1. TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points The TOPIX Core 30 Index bottomed at its 2 November low of 435 (Exhibit 1). Assuming all goes well, it could seek to regain its 12 April 2010 high of 565 through spring 2011. With wave formation suggesting that the index has moved into an upward phase corresponding to upward wave 3, we think it could aim for 680, equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the fall between the February 2007 high of 1,140 and the March 2009 low of 395, over the medium term.
We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we regard the three megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306], Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316], and Mizuho Financial Group [8411], Nintendo [7974], Nippon Steel [5401], Toyota Motor [7203], and Seven & i Holdings [3382] as promising candidates to outperform the TOPIX. Many of these stocks fell through Oct–Nov, and have considerable return reversal potential from a chart perspective.
Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off, including some export-oriented companies such as Honda Motor [7267] and Canon [7751], Mitsui & Co [8031], and Mitsubishi Estate [8802]. With some of these stocks peaking out or already forming a dead cross in terms of TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week), we expect a correction over the near term. We also expect star stocks for 2010 such as Komatsu [6301] and Softbank [9984] to move into a holding pattern once the rally runs its course.
Although defensive stocks appear to have broadly bottomed out, we think they will continue to underperform while the market remains in a holding pattern. We think investors would be well advised to continue steering clear of stocks such as Tokyo Electric Power [9501], Kansai Electric Power [9503], Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502], Astellas Pharma [4503], Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432], and NTT Docomo [9437]. (Written on 10 December)
Index could work to regain April 2010 high by spring 2011
Focusing on catchup by laggard stocks
Some stocks at forefront of rally likely to level off over short term
Best to stay away from defensive stocks
Nomura Investment Strategy
4 Technical insight
1. TOPIX Core 30 Index (weekly, intraday basis)
565.12(10/4/12)
763.76(03/9/17)
787.28(04/4/26) 738.97
(05/3/9)
1,091.12(06/4/21)
1,140.94(07/2/27)
1,136.53(07/6/18)
1,037.80(07/10/11)
928.35(08/6/6)
561.11(09/8/10)
435.84(10/11/2)
905.42(07/8/17)
880.94(06/6/14)
675.81(05/4/21)
677.65(04/10/26)639.78
(03/11/19)
510.10(03/4/14)
705.04(08/3/17)
441.09(08/11/21) 395.79
(09/3/12)
457.06(09/11/27)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(pts)
13-w k mov avg26w k mov avg52w k mov avg 100%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/2/27→09/3/12
Closing price8 Dec486.64
(A)
(B)
(C)
1
(yy/m/d)
Rise since March 2009 isessentially a three-leg uptrend
(w aves 1-2-3-4-5).
2
3
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 5
2. Share price performance for TOPIX Core 30 Index stocks
Share price Change in share price (%) Deviation from moving average (%)
Code (8 Dec close) YTD high (yy/m/d) YTD low (yy/m/d) Vs end-
Nov Vs end-
2009 Latest price vs YTD low
Latest price vs YTD high (25-day) (90-day) (200-day)
Nikkei Average 10,232.33 11,339.30 (10/4/5) 8,824.06 (10/8/31) 3.0 -3.0 16.0 -9.8 3.7 7.6 3.2
TOPIX 887.39 998.90 (10/4/15) 803.12 (10/11/2) 3.1 -2.2 10.5 -11.2 3.8 5.7 1.0 TOPIX Core30 486.64 561.81 (10/4/15) 438.37 (10/11/1) 2.5 -5.6 11.0 -13.4 3.4 5.4 0.2 TOPIX Large70 874.22 969.02 (10/4/27) 770.57 (10/8/31) 3.1 1.7 13.5 -9.8 3.2 6.5 2.6 TOPIX Mid400 902.93 1,011.87 (10/4/26) 820.69 (10/11/2) 3.3 -2.0 10.0 -10.8 3.9 4.9 0.4 TOPIX Small 901.47 1,022.31 (10/4/26) 788.39 (10/11/2) 4.9 -0.1 14.3 -11.8 6.6 6.6 1.1 2914 Japan Tobacco 291,000 358,000 (10/1/13) 243,900 (10/10/29) 2.0 -7.0 19.3 -18.7 3.7 6.3 -0.5 3382 Seven & i Holdings 2,091 2,468 (10/4/15) 1,848 (10/11/1) 2.2 10.2 *4 13.1 -15.3 3.5 4.8 0.5 4063 Shin-Etsu Chemical 4,190 5,720 (10/4/5) 3,810 (10/8/25) 2.4 -19.9 [3] 10.0 -26.7 [5] 1.5 0.2 -8.2 [5] 4502 Takeda Pharmaceutical 3,970 4,300 (10/3/19) 3,690 (10/5/27) 2.1 3.7 7.6 -7.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 4503 Astellas Pharma 3,050 3,620 (10/1/20) 2,828 (10/7/21) 1.7 -11.8 7.9 -15.7 0.0 [3] 1.0 -1.7 5401 Nippon Steel 288 395 (10/1/12) 250 (10/10/29) 4.0 *5 -23.2 [2] 15.2 -27.1 [4] 5.1 2.5 -5.9 * 6301 Komatsu 2,496 2,500 (10/12/8) 1,571 (10/7/1) 7.7 *1 29.1 *2 58.9 *1 -0.2 *1 9.7 *1 26.3 *1 33.4 *1 6502 Toshiba 437 556 (10/4/30) 380 (10/9/2) 0.2 [2] -14.5 15.0 -21.4 2.8 5.0 -2.2 6752 Panasonic 1,190 1,585 (10/1/15) 1,027 (10/8/25) -1.2 [1] -10.2 15.9 -24.9 -0.8 [1] 4.1 -1.7 6758 Sony 3,040 3,645 (10/3/23) 2,258 (10/7/6) 2.3 13.9 *3 34.6 *5 -16.6 6.6 *3 14.1 *2 7.3 *5 7201 Nissan Motor 815 845 (10/4/6) 600 (10/7/22) 3.8 0.6 35.8 *4 -3.6 *3 4.1 13.8 *3 14.0 *3 7203 Toyota Motor 3,280 4,235 (10/1/21) 2,800 (10/11/1) 1.9 -15.5 [5] 17.1 -22.6 4.1 8.4 1.5 7267 Honda Motor 3,135 3,410 (10/1/15) 2,470 (10/7/6) 4.2 *4 0.8 26.9 -8.1 3.6 7.3 6.4 7751 Canon 4,085 4,520 (10/4/5) 3,205 (10/7/1) 3.5 4.5 27.5 -9.6 3.2 8.0 6.5 7974 Nintendo 23,520 32,950 (10/4/5) 20,180 (10/10/13) 3.5 6.7 *5 16.6 -28.6 [3] 8.1 *2 4.6 -6.8 8031 Mitsui & Co 1,379 1,665 (10/4/12) 995 (10/7/6) 5.5 *2 5.2 38.6 *3 -17.2 4.3 11.3 6.6 8058 Mitsubishi Corp 2,179 2,542 (10/1/15) 1,784 (10/9/1) 3.0 -5.5 22.1 -14.3 3.5 10.1 5.3 8306 Mitsubishi UFJ FG 402 520 (10/4/15) 364 (10/11/1) 1.5 -11.1 10.4 -22.7 2.3 0.0 [5] -6.5 8316 Sumitomo Mitsui FG 2,620 3,355 (10/4/15) 2,325 (10/11/2) 2.0 -0.9 12.7 -21.9 3.4 3.2 -3.1 8411 Mizuho Financial Group 137 196 (10/3/26) 110 (10/10/4) 3.0 -17.5 [4] 24.5 -30.1 [2] 6.2 *4 6.2 -8.7 [4] 8604 Nomura Holdings 490 783 (10/1/12) 395 (10/11/2) 1.7 -28.0 [1] 24.1 -37.4 [1] 5.4 *5 6.1 -8.8 [2] 8766 Tokio Marine Holdings 2,389 2,910 (10/4/16) 2,223 (10/10/29) 0.9 [4] -5.6 7.5 [5] -17.9 0.8 [4] 1.9 -2.8 8802 Mitsubishi Estate 1,443 1,723 (10/4/30) 1,153 (10/7/22) 2.2 -2.4 25.2 -16.3 -0.4 [2] 4.9 2.9 9020 East Japan Railway 5,220 6,750 (10/4/7) 4,790 (10/11/17) 4.4 *3 -11.1 9.0 -22.7 4.8 -0.4 [4] -8.7 [3] 9432 NTT 3,815 4,075 (10/1/15) 3,580 (10/6/10) 0.7 [3] 4.5 6.6 [2] -6.4 *4 0.8 [4] 2.6 1.4 9433 KDDI 487,000 553,000 (10/1/15) 387,500 (10/10/4) 1.8 -1.2 25.7 -11.9 2.6 12.6 *5 10.0 *4 9437 NTT Docomo 137,600 154,400 (10/4/20) 129,600 (10/1/5) 1.3 [5] 6.2 6.2 [1] -10.9 1.0 -1.3 [2] -1.4 9501 Tokyo Electric Power 1,984 2,504 (10/1/25) 1,853 (10/10/28) 1.7 -15.0 7.1 [4] -20.8 3.2 -8.3 [1] -13.7 [1] 9503 Kansai Electric Power 2,050 2,203 (10/9/7) 1,919 (10/10/15) 1.8 -2.4 6.8 [3] -6.9 *5 1.0 -1.0 [3] -2.1 * 9984 Softbank 3,000 3,085 (10/12/8) 1,997 (10/5/7) 3.4 38.2 *1 50.2 *2 -2.8 *2 5.0 13.0 *4 22.2 *2
Note: (1) Year-to-date high (low) is closing-price basis for indices and continuous session basis for individual stocks. (2) New year-to-date highs recorded in December denoted by * in front of the stock code, new year-to-date lows denoted by . (3) Latest price versus year-to-date low (high) is the change in the stock price from the year-to-date low (high) to the latest closing price. (4) For change in share price and deviation from moving average, top five gainers denoted by *1–5, bottom five losers denoted by [1–5]. Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
6 Technical insight
Japan Tobacco [2914] (¥291,000) • The stock price had been declining since January 2010, but could now be on an uptrend since bottoming at
¥243,900 on 29 October. • There has been an overall improvement in upturn signs on the chart. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has
bottomed and now looks likely to return to positive territory, while the TOPIX-relative stock price itself is now pushing above the line of resistance that has held since January 2008. In the near term, we see the stock testing its January 2010 high of ¥358,000.
• Once it has broken above this level, we would see it heading for ¥403,900, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the December 2007 high of ¥708,000 to the March 2009 low of ¥216,000.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative trading value for
different ranges
0500
1,0001,5002,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
358.0(10/1/13)
366.0(08/11/5)
523(08/8/29)
604(07/1/5)
477(06/4/21)
236(04/12/30)183.8
(04/4/28)
370(05/10/31)
708(07/12/21)
243.9(10/10/29)
240.8(09/11/9)216.0
(09/3/10)
250.1(08/10/28)
411(08/7/11)
168(04/7/27)
514(07/3/7)
128.8(03/4/7)
362(06/6/15)
314(05/11/10)
206(05/2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥ '000)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/12/21→09/3/10
(3)
(1)
(4)
(2)
Start ofmedium-term wave
(5)
38.2%
(yy/m/d)
(B)
(C)
(A)
(1)
-8-4048
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50100150200250300
Relative price vs TOPIX
-30-20-10
01020
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
('000 shs)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus) (yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 7
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 291.0 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 25.3 Prev mo-end 285.4 2.0 P/B (x) 1.80
(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 313.0 -7.0 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.92 YTD high 358.0 -18.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.93 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 243.9 19.3 RSI (25) 70.0 47.7 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 41.7 Historical high 708.0 -58.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 54.8 59.9 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 59.6 53.0
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 2.06 Ratio (x)5-day 290.0 0.3 up Short margin (thou shs) 8.98 0.23 25-day 282.3 3.1 up I II III75-day 272.9 6.6 up High 100% 708.0 708.0 200-day 292.3 -0.5 down 76.4% 591.9 571.3 5-wk 288.7 0.8 up 61.8% 520.1 486.7 13-wk 275.4 5.7 up 50.0% 462.0 418.4 26-wk 275.7 5.5 down 38.2% 403.9 350.1 52-wk 297.7 -2.2 up 23.6% 332.1 265.5 12-mo 294.3 -1.1 down Low 0.0% 216.0 128.8 24-mo 282.8 2.9 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 417.1 -30.2 down 269.0 309.6 447.8 120-mo 302.7 -3.9 up 262.4 299.4 438.0
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/13)
(10/10/29)
(07/12/21)
Closingprice
2,910
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
50
100
150
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
294.0(9/16)
274.9(10/26)
301.5(11/24)293.4
(7/28)
257.6(9/1)
246.4(10/13)
243.9(10/29)
220
240
260
280
300
320
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥ '000)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(y y /m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
204(96/2)
240(94/10)
308(99/7)
182.8(01/7)
708(07/12)
358.0(10/1)
243.9(10/10)216.0
(09/3)
142(95/6)
149.6(97/1) 137.2
(00/3)
139(01/12) 128.8
(03/4)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥ '000)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
I
(5)
(1)
(C)
II300
200
150
100
400
500
700(B)
(A)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Nov 1994)
308(99/7)
708(07/12)
128.8(03/4)
142(95/6)
216.0(09/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥ '000)
(CY)
300
100
500
200
700
150
400
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 6 10 -3.4 4 12 -2.3 4 6 Feb 8 8 -0.6 8 8 0.2 1 0 Mar 13 3 2.5 9 7 0.9 0 3 Apr 7 9 1.7 5 11 -0.3 0 1 May 12 4 1.5 11 5 2.7 0 0 Jun 7 9 -0.3 8 8 -1.3 1 1 Jul 11 5 1.8 11 5 2.8 2 0 Aug 9 7 0.8 9 7 2.4 1 0 Sep 11 5 0.9 10 6 2.1 0 0 Oct 9 7 -2.6 10 6 0.2 2 2 Nov 9 8 -1.5 10 7 -1.9 1 0 Dec 13 4 4.6 11 6 3.9 5 4 Jan-Mar 8 8 -1.6 5 11 -1.6 5 9 Apr-Jun 10 6 3.1 9 7 1.3 1 2 Jul-Sep 11 5 3.1 12 4 7.0 3 0 Oct-Dec 10 6 1.2 10 6 2.9 8 6 Jan-Dec 8 8 7.0 10 6 11.1 17 17
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
8 Technical insight
Seven and i Holdings [3382] (¥2,091) • The recent rise has taken the share price above the medium-term resistance line running through highs of January
2006 and April 2010. It now looks likely that it formed a double bottom at the lows of ¥1,831 in December 2009 and ¥1,848 in November 2010.
• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looks to have bottomed. Once the stock has consolidated its current level, we would expect it to head towards the April 2010 high of ¥2,468.
• Once it has broken above this level, we would see it heading for ¥3,202, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2006 high of ¥5,420 to the December 2009 low of ¥1,831.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0500
1,0001,5002,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,120(09/1/5)
5,420(06/1/4)
4,020(04/4/13)
4,010(03/10/2)
4,240(06/8/18) 4,000
(07/2/26)
3,550(08/8/5)
2,465(09/5/20)
2,468(10/4/15)
1,848(10/11/1)
3,390(06/11/21)
3,510(06/6/9)
2,830(05/4/21)
3,050(03/11/19)
2,720(03/2/28)
1,994(08/3/17)
2,050(08/10/27) 1,901
(09/3/10)1,831
(09/12/18)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
23.6%
Fibonacci retracement06/1/4→09/12/18
(B)
(A)Start of
(A)-(B)-(C)wave(99/11/30)
(C) (yy/m/d)
Data before 25 Aug 2005 are connected with the prices of Seven Eleven Japan
-6-30369
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
40
60
80
100Relative price vs TOPIX
-20
24
6
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 9
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,091 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 18.5 Prev mo-end 2,045 2.2 P/B (x) 1.09
(¥) Prev yr-end 1,897 10.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.9 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.67 YTD high 2,468 -15.3 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.83 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,848 13.1 RSI (25) 68.8 46.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 41.7 Historical high 18,290 -88.6 Stoch-fast (13,9) 57.8 50.8 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 59.6 44.8
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.42 Ratio(x)5-day 2,095 -0.2 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.68 0.62 25-day 2,030 3.0 up I II III75-day 1,984 5.4 up High 100% 5,420 18,290 200-day 2,081 0.5 up 76.4% 4,573 14,406 5-wk 2,064 1.3 up 61.8% 4,049 12,003 13-wk 1,984 5.4 up 50.0% 3,626 10,061 26-wk 2,014 3.8 up 38.2% 3,202 8,118 52-wk 2,061 1.4 up 23.6% 2,678 5,715 12-mo 2,062 1.4 up Low 0.0% 1,831 1,831 24-mo 2,116 -1.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,919 -28.4 down 1,967 2,188 3,707 120-mo 3,393 -38.4 down 1,926 2,150 2,885
Closingprice
1,854
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/15)
(10/11/1)
(99/11/30)
Ichimoku chart ptsupper cloudlower cloud
0
50
100
150
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,117(8/10) 2,064
(10/7)
2,160(11/22)
1,909(8/31)
1,848(11/1)
1,891(10/5)
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
3,550(08/8)
5,420(06/1)
5,420(02/6)
4,020(04/4)
18,290(99/11)
4,750(98/1)
3,537(94/3)
2,732(91/10)2,392
(90/1)
1,506(88/2)
1,556(86/7) 1,831
(09/12)
1,994(08/3)
2,830(05/4)
2,720(03/2)
3,770(01/8)
3,835(98/10)
2,618(95/4)
2,005(92/8)
1,394(90/10)1,088
(88/11)979(87/11)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(B)
(A)
I
II
Data before 25 Aug 2005 are connected with the prices of Seven Eleven Japan
1,000
7,000
5,000
4,0003,000
2,000
1,500
10,000
15,000
20,000
(C)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Nov 1979)
18,290(99/11)
5,420(06/1)
2,720(03/2) 1,831
(09/12)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
1,000
100
10,000
2,000
500
20,000
200
5,000
(CY)
Data before 25 Aug 2005 are connected with the prices of Seven Eleven Japan
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 14 17 -1.0 14 17 -1.8 8 10 Feb 16 15 0.2 18 13 0.1 2 3 Mar 15 16 1.0 13 18 -0.7 1 1 Apr 18 13 4.1 15 16 1.9 2 3 May 20 11 0.6 17 14 0.5 2 0 Jun 16 15 0.1 17 14 0.2 1 1 Jul 19 12 1.5 17 14 1.7 1 1 Aug 16 15 0.6 13 18 0.8 1 2 Sep 14 17 -0.2 14 17 1.4 0 1 Oct 16 15 0.2 16 15 1.3 3 4 Nov 21 11 5.6 23 9 5.6 4 5 Dec 20 12 3.4 17 15 1.9 7 1 Jan-Mar 16 15 0.6 15 16 -2.2 11 14 Apr-Jun 17 14 4.8 17 14 2.6 5 4 Jul-Sep 15 16 2.2 17 14 4.1 2 4 Oct-Dec 22 9 8.4 20 11 8.1 14 10 Jan-Dec 17 14 22.3 17 14 15.4 32 32
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
10 Technical insight
Shin-Etsu Chemical [4063] (¥4,190) • We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the July
2007 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line running through the December 2008 and August 2010 lows.
• Even if it breaks above this range, we would expect it to remain range-bound with the line through the June 2008 and April 2010 highs (dotted line in top graph of Exhibit 1) forming the upper limit.
• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is still negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the downward channel since September 2009 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the April 2010 high of ¥5,720.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
500
1,000
1,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
5,720(10/4/5)
6,010(09/9/24)
7,000(08/6/6)
8,170(06/10/26)
4,980(03/9/2)
4,780(04/4/26) 4,340
(05/3/3)
7,040(06/1/13)
9,580(07/7/13)
3,810(10/8/25)3,400
(08/12/5)3,390
(03/4/14)
3,740(03/11/18) 3,550
(04/8/16)
3,710(05/4/21)
5,380(06/6/14)
6,880(07/3/5)
4,680(08/3/17)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
100%Fibonacci retracement
07/7/13→08/12/5
(5)
(4)
(B)
(yy/m/d)
(C)
1
2
(A)
-8
-4
0
4
8(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
6080
100120
140Relative price vs TOPIX
-2
0
2
4
6
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 11
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 4,190 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 16.5 Prev mo-end 4,090 2.4 P/B (x) 1.26
(¥) Prev yr-end 5,230 -19.9 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.7 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.38 YTD high 5,720 -26.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.40 (High→ latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,810 10.0 RSI (25) 58.6 39.9 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 66.7 Historical high 9,580 -56.3 Stoch-fast (13,9) 66.7 49.9 (High→ latest) Stoch-slow (3) 68.1 53.3
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.87 Ratio (x)5-day 4,194 -0.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.46 4.05 25-day 4,136 1.3 up I II III75-day 4,183 0.2 up High 100% 9,580 9,580 200-day 4,563 -8.2 down 76.4% 8,122 7,542 5-wk 4,160 0.7 up 61.8% 7,219 6,281 13-wk 4,222 -0.8 down 50.0% 6,490 5,261 26-wk 4,221 -0.7 down 38.2% 5,761 4,242 52-wk 4,650 -9.9 down 23.6% 4,858 2,981 12-mo 4,480 -6.5 down Low 0.0% 3,400 943 24-mo 4,681 -10.5 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,912 -29.1 down 4,244 5,105 6,565 120-mo 5,124 -18.2 down 4,178 5,025 5,920
1,811
Ichimoku chart ptsupper cloudlower cloud
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/5)
(10/8/25)
(07/7/13)
Closingprice
050
100150200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
4,545(10/15)
3,970(11/1)
3,810(8/25)
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
6,010(09/9)4,980
(03/9)
5,920(02/3)
6,630(00/3)
3,600(97/10)
2,210(94/6)
1,667(91/4)
2,219(89/4)
2,190(87/10)
9,580(07/7)
3,810(10/8)
1,295(88/10)
943(90/10)
1,162(92/8)
1,362(95/6)
1,951(98/9)
3,260(01/10)
3,390(03/4)
3,550(04/8) 3,400
(08/12)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(3)
(5)
(4)
(1)
(2)
I
II
1,000
5,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
7,000
10,000 (B)
(A)
(C)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
9,580(07/7)
2,219(89/4)
6,630(00/3)
3,400(08/12)
943(90/10)
3,260(01/10)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
5,000
2,000
500
10,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 31 9 4.1 25 15 2.6 4 11 Feb 20 21 1.2 18 23 0.6 1 0 Mar 30 11 4.5 24 17 2.6 3 1 Apr 27 14 3.5 22 19 2.0 8 2 May 20 21 -0.1 17 24 -0.5 4 1 Jun 15 26 -1.0 15 26 -1.5 4 4 Jul 25 16 0.9 23 18 0.8 3 3 Aug 24 17 -0.8 20 21 -0.4 0 3 Sep 22 19 -0.7 19 22 0.6 2 3 Oct 23 18 0.8 22 19 1.9 6 6 Nov 22 19 -0.1 22 19 -0.4 2 4 Dec 26 15 1.8 22 19 0.2 4 3 Jan-Mar 31 9 9.8 21 19 5.7 8 12 Apr-Jun 20 21 2.5 18 23 0.0 16 7 Jul-Sep 22 19 -0.5 19 22 0.8 5 9 Oct-Dec 23 18 2.5 22 19 1.6 12 13 Jan-Dec 27 13 15.2 23 17 8.4 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
12 Technical insight
Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502] (¥3,970) • We expect little upside, but also see little risk on the downside. For now, we see the stock moving in a narrow range
between the May 2010 low of ¥3,690 and the March 2010 high of ¥4,300.
• The downtrend in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has steepened recently, making it more likely that it will turn negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the resistance line since August 2010 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the March 2010 high of ¥4,300.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
01000200030004000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
8,430(07/6/6)
6,950(05/10/3)
5,420(04/11/12)
4,770(03/6/20)
6,160(08/8/13)
4,750(09/1/5)
3,960(09/5/20)
4,300(10/3/19)
3,750(10/10/27)
3,750(03/4/16)
3,850(03/10/24)
4,830(05/1/21)
6,170(06/1/17)
4,850(08/3/18)
4,160(08/10/10)
3,130(09/3/10)
3,500(09/11/12)
3,690(10/5/27)
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
23.6%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/6/6→09/3/10
100%
38.2%
(4)
(5)
(A)
(B)
(C) (yy/m/d)
1
-10
-5
0
5
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
5060708090
100110
Relative price vs TOPIX
-20246
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 13
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,970 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 13.6 Prev mo-end 3,890 2.1 P/B (x) 1.52
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,830 3.7 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.53 YTD high 4,300 -7.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.55 (High→ latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,690 7.6 RSI (25) 61.1 52.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 41.7 Historical high 8,430 -52.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 37.1 47.1 (High→ latest) Stoch-slow (3) 35.9 43.1
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.72 Ratio (x)5-day 3,906 1.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.71 1.01 25-day 3,920 1.3 up I II III75-day 3,908 1.6 up High 100% 8,430 8,430 200-day 3,950 0.5 up 76.4% 7,179 6,672 5-wk 3,934 0.9 up 61.8% 6,405 5,584 13-wk 3,915 1.4 down 50.0% 5,780 4,705 26-wk 3,925 1.1 up 38.2% 5,155 3,826 52-wk 3,946 0.6 up 23.6% 4,381 2,738 12-mo 3,922 1.2 up Low 0.0% 3,130 980 24-mo 3,839 3.4 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,608 -29.2 down 3,898 3,950 6,295 120-mo 5,387 -26.3 down 3,853 3,900 5,728
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/3/19)
(10/5/27)
(07/6/6)
Closingprice
3,135
↑
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
4,000(11/11)
4,045(9/15)
4,070(8/10)
3,750(10/27)
3,810(8/25)
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,300(10/3)
6,160(08/8)
8,430(07/6)
8,080(00/4)
3,850(97/12)
1,430(93/4)
1,860(91/3)
3,345(87/4)
3,130(09/3)
4,850(08/3)
3,850(03/10)
3,750(03/4)
4,560(01/9)
4,360(00/1)
3,030(98/3)
1,000(95/3)
980(92/4)
1,220(90/8)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(4)
(5)(3)
(2)
(1)
(A)
(B)
(C)
I
II
1,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
10,000
8,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
8,430(07/6)
8,080(00/4)
3,345(87/4)
3,130(09/3)
3,750(03/4)
980(92/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
4,000
2,000
500
8,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 2.1 21 19 0.8 10 13 Feb 19 22 -1.1 10 31 -1.7 4 1 Mar 24 17 2.4 20 21 0.5 2 6 Apr 24 17 1.3 21 20 -0.1 5 2 May 22 19 0.4 21 20 0.2 2 2 Jun 17 24 -0.8 17 24 -1.3 1 1 Jul 25 16 1.4 25 16 1.5 0 4 Aug 24 17 1.1 23 18 1.7 2 1 Sep 21 20 1.2 27 14 2.5 0 1 Oct 21 20 -0.7 23 18 0.3 3 2 Nov 22 19 1.0 20 21 0.7 2 4 Dec 28 13 2.2 22 19 0.7 10 4 Jan-Mar 21 19 4.1 11 29 -0.1 16 20 Apr-Jun 22 19 0.8 15 26 -1.3 8 5 Jul-Sep 25 16 3.6 31 10 5.7 2 6 Oct-Dec 24 17 2.5 25 16 1.7 15 10 Jan-Dec 22 18 14.0 21 19 8.3 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
14 Technical insight
Astellas Pharma [4503] (¥3,050) • Recent gains mean the stock has now broken above the downward channel since July 2007. It now looks likely that
it formed a double bottom at the lows of ¥2,820 in March 2009 and ¥2,828 in July 2010.
• However, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has turned downward recently, making it more likely that it will turn negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the resistance line since December 2008 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the January 2010 high of ¥3,620.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradinvalue for
different ranges
0
500
1,000
1,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,620(10/1/20)
3,900(09/8/10)
5,040(08/8/5)
5,650(07/7/17)
5,090(06/1/5)
4,120(04/11/15)
3,500(03/7/10)
2,828(10/7/21)
3,090(09/11/27)
2,820(09/3/12)
3,300(08/10/28)
3,690(08/3/18)
3,910(06/6/15)
3,540(05/3/25)
2,745(03/11/5)
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
61.8%
76.4%
50.0%
38.2%
23.6%
Fibonacci retracement07/7/17→09/3/12
(B)
(yy/m/d)(C)
-10
-5
0
5
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
60
80
100
120
140Relative price vs TOPIX
-2-10
12
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 15
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,050 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 17.4 Prev mo-end 3,000 1.7 P/B (x) 1.40
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,460 -11.8 ROE (forecast) (%) 8.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.09 YTD high 3,620 -15.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.67 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,828 7.9 RSI (25) 54.7 51.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 58.3 58.3 Historical high 6,280 -51.4 Stoch-fast (13,9) 23.9 58.7 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 25.9 63.2
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.22 Ratio (x)5-day 3,043 3,049 0.0 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.29 0.75 25-day 3,051 3,053 -0.1 up I II III75-day 3,039 3,041 0.3 up High 100% 5,650 6,280 #N/A200-day 3,103 3,102 -1.7 down 76.4% 4,982 5,230 #N/A5-wk 3,063 3,062 -0.4 down 61.8% 4,569 4,580 #N/A13-wk 3,067 3,070 -0.6 up 50.0% 4,235 4,055 #N/A26-wk 3,008 3,012 1.3 up 38.2% 3,901 3,530 #N/A52-wk 3,164 3,157 -3.4 down 23.6% 3,488 2,880 #N/A12-mo 3,134 3,099 -1.6 down Low 0.0% 2,820 1,830 #N/A24-mo 3,268 3,244 -6.0 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,170 4,144 -26.4 down 3,072 3,366 4,475 120-mo 3,846 3,831 -20.4 down 3,027 3,183 4,323
Closingprice
1,427
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/20)
(10/7/21)
(00/4/5)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
50
100
150
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
3,160(11/19)
3,205(10/19)
2,940(11/4)
2,828(7/21)
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
3,900(09/8)
5,650(07/7)5,090
(06/1)
4,120(04/11)3,750
(02/3)
6,280(00/4)6,700
(99/8)
3,270(97/7)
2,510(96/5)
3,170(91/4)
3,845(89/1)
4,074(87/7)
5,040(08/8)
2,828(10/7)
2,820(09/3)
2,745(03/11)2,560
(02/9)
2,745(01/9)
3,370(00/1)
2,610(97/12)
2,160(97/1)
1,830(95/5)
1,830(94/11)
2,036(90/10)
2,487(87/11)
3,690(08/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(A)
(5)
(3)
(B)
(4)
I
II
1,500
4,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
5,000
6,0007,000
(C)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
5,650(07/7)4,074
(87/7)
6,280(00/4)
2,820(09/3)1,830
(94/11)
2,560(02/9)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
5,000
2,000
500
8,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 2.5 21 19 1.2 6 12 Feb 24 17 1.3 22 19 0.7 2 1 Mar 18 23 0.7 20 21 -1.0 1 5 Apr 26 15 1.1 20 21 -0.2 6 1 May 23 18 0.4 17 24 0.1 3 1 Jun 23 18 1.1 20 21 0.6 2 2 Jul 23 18 1.1 23 18 1.1 4 4 Aug 19 22 0.0 21 20 0.6 4 3 Sep 23 18 2.2 27 14 3.5 1 2 Oct 18 23 -0.1 23 18 0.8 3 3 Nov 22 19 0.6 22 19 0.5 3 5 Dec 22 19 1.7 22 19 0.1 6 2 Jan-Mar 21 19 4.7 15 25 1.0 9 18 Apr-Jun 25 16 2.6 24 17 0.5 11 4 Jul-Sep 24 17 2.9 28 13 5.0 9 9 Oct-Dec 20 21 2.3 22 19 1.6 12 10 Jan-Dec 25 15 12.7 24 16 8.4 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
16 Technical insight
Nippon Steel [5401] (¥288) • The stock is currently forming a double bottom at the March 2009 low of ¥233 and the October 2010 low of ¥250. It
could well turn upward if the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) shows signs of bottoming.
• In the near term, it could test critical junctures around ¥400, such as the January 2010 high of ¥395, the June 2009 high of ¥407, or ¥406, which represents a 23.6% retracement of the decline from the high of ¥964 in July 2007 to the low of ¥233 in March 2009.
• Once it has recovered this level, we would see it heading for ¥512, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July 2007 high of ¥964 to the March 2009 low of ¥233.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
395(10/1/12)
964(07/7/23)
263(04/4/14)
294(05/3/1)
479(06/3/1)
705(08/5/20)
407(09/6/15)
250(10/10/29)
370(06/6/14)
242(05/5/25) 203
(04/5/17) 127
(03/4/28)
427(08/3/17)
233(09/3/12)
298(09/10/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Fibonacci retracement07/7/23→09/3/12
100%
0.0%
76.4%
61.8%
38.2%
50.0%
Start ofmedium-term wave
(02/11/19)
23.6%
(1)
(2)
(3)
(yy/m/d)
1
2
-10-505
1015
(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50100150200250300350
Relative price vs TOPIX
-1000
100200300
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 17
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 288 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 15.1 Prev mo-end 277 4.0 P/B (x) 1.09
(¥) Prev yr-end 375 -23.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.2 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.04 YTD high 395 -27.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.17 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 250 15.2 RSI (25) 68.0 42.9 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 50.0 Historical high 984 -70.7 Stoch-fast (13,9) 66.5 39.2 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 64.5 33.9
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 33.13 Ratio (x)5-day 284 1.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 9.96 3.33 25-day 276 4.3 up I II III75-day 279 3.2 flat High 100% 964 964 200-day 307 -6.1 down 76.4% 791 765 5-wk 281 2.6 up 61.8% 685 641 13-wk 277 4.0 down 50.0% 599 542 26-wk 286 0.8 down 38.2% 512 442 52-wk 315 -8.5 down 23.6% 406 318 12-mo 304 -5.4 down Low 0.0% 233 119 24-mo 318 -9.4 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 480 -40.0 down 276 353 590 120-mo 350 -17.8 up 265 338 539
Closingprice
1,960
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/12)
(10/10/29)
(89/2/23)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
050
100150200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
291(11/29)
302(9/7)
276(8/31)
250(10/29)
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
407(09/6)
984(89/2)
521(91/3)
420(93/4) 392
(97/5)314
(99/8)
230(01/4)
217(02/5)
479(06/3)
964(07/7)
705(08/5)
250(10/10)
229(92/8)
153(86/10)
371(90/10)
271(95/7)
146(98/1)
165(00/10) 145
(01/9)119
(02/11)
242(05/5)
370(06/6)
427(08/3)
233(09/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥) 24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(1)
(2)
(3)I
II
800
400300250
200
150
100
500600
1,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
182(73/1)
236(81/8)
984(89/2)
392(97/5)
964(07/7)
84(77/11)
229(92/8)
119(02/11)
233(09/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
300
100
50
500
200
1,000
150
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 25 15 2.5 22 18 1.0 8 10 Feb 24 17 2.2 21 20 1.6 1 1 Mar 22 19 1.5 18 23 -0.5 4 4 Apr 20 21 2.0 20 21 0.5 5 1 May 22 19 1.0 20 21 0.7 3 3 Jun 20 21 -0.7 14 27 -1.4 2 1 Jul 23 18 1.9 23 18 1.9 3 2 Aug 22 19 1.3 23 18 1.7 4 1 Sep 15 26 -2.4 15 26 -1.3 1 1 Oct 14 27 -2.6 17 24 -1.7 5 9 Nov 22 19 0.6 19 22 0.2 2 5 Dec 29 12 2.3 22 19 0.6 3 3 Jan-Mar 29 11 6.9 25 15 2.4 13 15 Apr-Jun 21 20 2.1 16 25 -0.3 10 5 Jul-Sep 17 24 1.4 20 21 2.5 8 4 Oct-Dec 18 23 0.4 16 25 -0.7 10 17 Jan-Dec 23 17 12.7 18 22 3.5 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
18 Technical insight
Komatsu [6301] (¥2,496) • In terms of wave formation, the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 3. As it has already broken
through ¥2,396, or a 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2007 high of ¥4,090 to the August 2010 low of ¥702, we now see it testing ¥2,796, or a 61.8% retracement.
• However, recent gains have pushed stochastics above 90%, and with the RSI (25 week) approaching the 80% line, it is in the zone requiring caution regarding overheating, and may need to consolidate before pushing higher again. We expect the stock to flatten out at high levels after near-term gains.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
2,500(10/12/8)
3,440(08/6/5)
837(05/3/10)
2,670(06/5/9)
715(04/1/6)
4,090(07/10/16)
2,099(10/1/12)
1,571(10/7/1)
702(08/10/28)
1,992(06/11/21)
715(05/4/18)
2,175(08/1/22)
1,857(06/6/14)
583(04/6/10)383
(03/1/10)0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
38.2%
50.0%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/10/16→08/10/28 100%
61.8%
23.6%
(1)
(2)
(3)
1
2Start of
medium-term wave(02/10/9)
(yy/m/d)
3
-15-10-505
1015
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
0100200300400500600700
Relative price vs TOPIX
-10-505
101520
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 19
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,496 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 20.8 Prev mo-end 2,318 7.7 P/B (x) 2.96
(¥) Prev yr-end 1,934 29.1 ROE (forecast) (%) 14.2 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.44 YTD high 2,500 -0.2 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.28 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,571 58.9 RSI (25) 77.7 77.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 83.3 Historical high 4,090 -39.0 Stoch-fast (13,9) 84.9 94.0 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 84.4 92.6
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 3.67 Ratio (x)5-day 2,459 1.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 9.44 0.39 25-day 2,296 8.7 up I II III75-day 2,016 23.8 up High 100% 4,090 4,090 200-day 1,875 33.1 up 76.4% 3,290 3,208 5-wk 2,350 6.2 up 61.8% 2,796 2,662 13-wk 2,113 18.1 up 50.0% 2,396 2,221 26-wk 1,934 29.1 up 38.2% 1,996 1,779 52-wk 1,889 32.1 up 23.6% 1,502 1,233 12-mo 1,920 30.0 up Low 0.0% 702 351 24-mo 1,689 47.8 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,223 12.3 up 1,944 1,796 2,351 120-mo 1,440 73.3 up 1,844 1,693 2,234
2,493
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/12/8)
(10/7/1)
(07/10/16)
Closingprice
0
200
400
600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,500(12/8)
1,877(8/3)
1,682(9/1)
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2,099(10/1)
4,090(07/10)
2,670(06/5)
715(04/1)
803(00/7)
820(99/5)
1,090(96/4)
997(94/6)
1,470(89/12)
1,571(10/7)
702(08/10)
532(92/6)
565(95/3) 486
(98/1) 444(00/3)
355(01/9)
351(02/10)
2,175(08/1)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(2)
(1)
(3)
I
II
300
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
3,000
4,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
1,470(89/12)
4,090(07/10)
702(08/10)
351(02/10)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
3,000
2,000
500
4,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 23 17 1.2 17 23 -0.3 7 15 Feb 22 19 0.0 17 24 -0.6 2 2 Mar 32 9 4.2 26 15 2.3 0 5 Apr 25 16 2.8 22 19 1.3 4 1 May 24 17 2.1 24 17 1.9 4 0 Jun 22 19 2.0 20 21 1.5 3 2 Jul 19 22 0.3 20 21 0.3 5 3 Aug 20 21 -0.5 17 24 -0.1 2 0 Sep 22 19 -0.8 22 19 0.4 3 1 Oct 16 25 -2.8 18 23 -1.9 4 5 Nov 24 17 1.3 20 21 0.9 2 3 Dec 22 19 1.4 19 22 -0.2 5 4 Jan-Mar 23 17 5.9 22 18 1.8 9 22 Apr-Jun 27 14 7.2 23 18 4.9 11 3 Jul-Sep 17 24 -0.4 18 23 0.8 10 4 Oct-Dec 22 19 -0.4 18 23 -1.3 11 12 Jan-Dec 22 18 15.3 22 18 7.1 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
20 Technical insight
Toshiba [6502] (¥437) • In terms of wave formation, we see the stock as currently being in subwave 3 of upward wave 1, and as likely to
test ¥695, or a 50% retracement of the decline from the July 2007 high of ¥1,185 to the February 2009 low of ¥204.
• However, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is currently negative, and recent stock price momentum is weak.
• We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the October 2009 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line running through the February 2009 and September 2010 lows. We do not expect a genuine rally until the stock has broken above the symmetrical triangle pattern.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
01,0002,0003,0004,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
556(10/4/30)
576(04/4/26)541
(03/7/8) 475(05/3/8)
815(06/1/13)
842(06/8/31)
1,185(07/7/24)
953(08/6/4)
442(09/1/7)
572(09/10/23)
380(10/9/2)
408(10/2/9)
318(09/7/13)
204(09/2/23)
290(08/10/28)
649(08/3/18)
705(07/3/5)
621(06/3/8)
416(05/4/18)379
(04/8/16)303(03/4/14)
369(03/11/20)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg 100%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/7/24→09/2/23
(E)
(D)
(yy/m/d)
1
2
(1)
3
-15-10-505
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
6080
100120140160
Relative price vs TOPIX
-50
0
50
100
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 21
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 437 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 26.5 Prev mo-end 436 0.2 P/B (x) 2.40
(¥) Prev yr-end 511 -14.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 9.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.91 YTD high 556 -21.4 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.09 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 380 15.0 RSI (25) 64.5 40.3 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 58.3 Historical high 1,500 -70.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 73.6 61.3 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 73.7 56.0
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 32.51 Ratio (x)5-day 441 -0.9 down Short margin (mn shs) 8.36 3.89 25-day 427 2.3 up I II III75-day 413 5.9 up High 100% 1,185 1,500 572 200-day 447 -2.3 up 76.4% 953 1,194 485 5-wk 430 1.6 up 61.8% 810 1,005 431 13-wk 417 4.7 up 50.0% 695 852 388 26-wk 427 2.3 down 38.2% 579 699 345 52-wk 457 -4.4 down 23.6% 436 510 291 12-mo 451 -3.1 down Low 0.0% 204 204 204 24-mo 422 3.5 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 630 -30.6 down 410 488 738 120-mo 554 -21.1 down 405 445 680
Closingprice
1,852
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/30)
(10/9/2)
(89/6/1)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
451(12/3)
427(10/7)
471(7/14)
400(10/29)
380(9/2)
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1,500(89/6)
878(94/6)
869(96/1)
1,280(00/7)
576(04/4)
815(06/1)
1,185(07/7)
853(86/9)
572(09/10)
380(10/9)
204(09/2)
379(04/8)
292(02/10)
430(98/9)
493(95/6)
530(92/3)
551(87/12)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)(B)
(A)
(E)
(D)
(C)
(1)
I
II
III
1,000
700
500
300
200
1,500
1,200
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
1,500(89/6) 1,280
(00/7)1,185(07/7)
430(98/9)
204(09/2)
292(02/10)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
700
200
1,500
1,000
500
100
300
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 1.6 19 21 0.2 8 5 Feb 15 26 -1.2 13 28 -1.8 0 4 Mar 21 20 1.8 15 26 -0.2 1 5 Apr 29 12 5.4 29 12 3.8 5 3 May 21 20 0.3 19 22 -0.0 1 0 Jun 18 23 0.1 14 27 -0.4 5 1 Jul 18 23 1.0 19 22 0.9 5 1 Aug 19 22 0.9 19 22 1.3 3 2 Sep 19 22 -2.0 22 19 -1.0 2 5 Oct 15 26 -2.5 17 24 -1.7 3 6 Nov 21 20 2.0 22 19 1.6 2 3 Dec 27 14 2.2 20 21 0.5 6 6 Jan-Mar 20 20 2.4 14 26 -1.6 9 14 Apr-Jun 27 14 5.6 21 20 3.3 11 4 Jul-Sep 16 25 0.5 17 24 1.4 10 8 Oct-Dec 22 19 1.4 22 19 0.3 11 15 Jan-Dec 24 16 9.6 18 22 2.0 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
22 Technical insight
Panasonic [6752] (¥1,190) • The stock is now forming a triple bottom at the December 2008 low of ¥1,000, the November 2009 low of ¥1,062,
and the August 2010 low of ¥1,027. Once it has firmed up this bottom, we expect it to head towards the January 2010 high of ¥1,585.
• However, we expect a dead cross and a decline into negative territory by the TOPIX-relative MACD, and thus near-term stock price momentum is likely to be weak.
• In the near term, we expect the stock to form a triangular pattern bounded by the channel through the July 2006 and August 2007 lows and the January 2010 high (currently transforming into a resistance level) on the upside, and the line through the December 2008 and August 2010 lows on the downside.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
1,541(09/8/4)
2,870(06/4/21)
1,630(05/1/11)
1,694(04/4/26)
2,670(06/10/16) 2,585
(07/6/14) 2,515
(08/6/6)
1,585(10/1/15)
1,027(10/8/25)
1,062(09/11/27)
2,080(06/7/18)
1,485(05/4/21) 1,372
(04/8/16)
860(03/4/28)
1,912(07/8/21)
1,000(08/12/17)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
Fibonacci retracement06/4/21→08/12/17
23.6%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
38.2%
(A)
(B)
(C)
(yy/m/d)
-10-505
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
80
100
120
140Relative price vs TOPIX
-10-505
101520
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 23
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 1,190 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 34.3 Prev mo-end 1,204 -1.2 P/B (x) 1.10
(¥) Prev yr-end 1,325 -10.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 3.2 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.84 YTD high 1,585 -24.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.16 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,027 15.9 RSI (25) 57.7 48.1 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 33.3 50.0 Historical high 3,320 -64.2 Stoch-fast (13,9) 19.9 79.3 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 22.8 80.4
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.17 Ratio (x)5-day 1,194 -0.3 down Short margin (mn shs) 1.89 3.79 25-day 1,201 -0.9 up I II III75-day 1,153 3.2 up High 100% 2,870 2,870 3,320 200-day 1,210 -1.6 down 76.4% 2,429 2,396 2,739 5-wk 1,206 -1.3 down 61.8% 2,156 2,102 2,380 13-wk 1,181 0.7 up 50.0% 1,935 1,865 2,090 26-wk 1,151 3.4 down 38.2% 1,714 1,628 1,800 52-wk 1,243 -4.2 down 23.6% 1,441 1,334 1,441 12-mo 1,223 -2.7 down Low 0.0% 1,000 860 860 24-mo 1,256 -5.2 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 1,856 -35.9 down 1,172 1,324 2,059 120-mo 1,733 -31.3 down 1,127 1,310 1,862
2,919
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/15)
(10/8/25)
(00/3/1)
Closingprice
0
200
400
600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
1,272(11/19)
1,027(8/25)
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,000
4,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2,923(88/8)
1,920(94/6)
2,520(97/8)
3,320(00/3)
1,826(02/3) 1,694
(04/4)
2,870(06/4) 2,515
(08/6)
1,585(10/1)
1,027(10/8)
995(93/3)
1,200(95/6)
1,640(98/10)
1,398(01/10)
860(03/4)
1,372(04/8)
1,912(07/8)
1,000(08/12)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)(A)
(B)(5)
(4)
(3)
(C)
I
IIIII
800
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,200
1,000
3,5004,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
2,923(88/8)
3,320(00/3)
2,870(06/4)
860(03/4)
995(93/3)
1,000(08/12)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,500
200
3,000
2,000
1,000
4,000
500
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 -0.0 18 22 -1.3 8 7 Feb 19 22 -0.7 17 24 -1.3 1 5 Mar 24 17 4.1 26 15 2.1 4 2 Apr 24 17 3.9 25 16 2.5 2 4 May 17 24 -1.1 14 27 -1.4 2 2 Jun 18 23 0.6 21 20 0.2 4 1 Jul 20 21 0.5 18 23 0.5 3 3 Aug 16 25 -2.3 17 24 -1.8 5 3 Sep 18 23 -2.5 17 24 -1.3 1 2 Oct 22 19 0.8 24 17 1.8 1 3 Nov 21 20 0.3 20 21 -0.1 3 5 Dec 29 12 4.1 29 12 2.4 7 4 Jan-Mar 21 19 3.5 17 23 -0.5 13 14 Apr-Jun 24 17 3.5 21 20 1.1 8 7 Jul-Sep 18 23 -4.4 18 23 -2.9 9 8 Oct-Dec 28 13 5.1 30 11 3.9 11 12 Jan-Dec 25 15 8.8 22 18 1.4 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
24 Technical insight
Sony [6758] (¥3,040) • Wave formation suggests the stock is in the initial phase of a rally corresponding to the upward subwave 3 of
upward wave 1.
• Recent gains have taken the share price through the medium-term resistance line running through highs of May 2007, December 2007 and March 2010. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is positive and rising, and thus recent stock price momentum has been strong.
• Our near-term target is the March 2010 high of ¥3,645, which is close to a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥7,190 to the February 2009 low of ¥1,491. Once it has recovered to this high, it is likely to head towards a 50% retracement at ¥4,341.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
dif ferent ranges
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,645(10/3/23)
5,560(08/6/2)
6,410(07/12/26)
7,190(07/5/22)
6,200(06/4/21)
4,420(05/3/28)
4,710(04/4/26) 4,450
(03/9/17)
2,830(09/10/30)
2,258(10/7/6)
3,910(08/3/18)
5,050(07/8/17)
4,340(06/10/5)
3,660(05/7/29)
3,550(04/8/16)
2,720(03/4/28)
3,490(03/12/10)
1,491(09/2/24)
2,250(09/12/1)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
76.4%
100%
61.8%
50.0%
23.6%
38.2%
Fibonacci retracement07/5/22→09/2/24
(A)
(B)
1
(C) (yy/m/d)
2
3
(1)
20406080
100120
Relative price vs TOPIX
-15-10
-505
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
-8-4048
1216
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 25
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,040 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 43.6 Prev mo-end 2,971 2.3 P/B (x) 1.06
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,670 13.9 ROE (forecast) (%) 2.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.82 YTD high 3,645 -16.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.25 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,258 34.6 RSI (25) 72.6 61.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 58.3 58.3 Historical high 16,950 -82.1 Stoch-fast (13,9) 81.9 83.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 81.3 80.1
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 4.01 Ratio (x)5-day 3,021 0.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 3.75 1.1 25-day 2,867 6.0 up I II III75-day 2,673 13.7 up High 100% 7,190 16,950 200-day 2,833 7.3 up 76.4% 5,845 13,302 5-wk 2,918 4.2 up 61.8% 5,013 11,045 13-wk 2,752 10.4 up 50.0% 4,341 9,221 26-wk 2,634 15.4 up 38.2% 3,668 7,396 52-wk 2,852 6.6 up 23.6% 2,836 5,139 12-mo 2,872 5.8 up Low 0.0% 1,491 1,491 24-mo 2,629 15.7 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,073 -25.4 down 2,685 3,008 4,478 120-mo 4,513 -32.6 down 2,571 2,895 4,071
Closingprice
3,054
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/3/23)
(10/7/6)
(00/3/1)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
200
400
600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
3,090(12/2)
2,803(8/3)
2,338(9/1)
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,318(89/10)
3,230(94/2)
6,745(98/7)
16,950(00/3)
7,460(02/5)
4,710(04/4)
6,200(06/4)
7,190(07/5)
3,645(10/3)
2,258(10/7)
1,164(87/4)
1,675(92/8)
1,865(95/6)
3,615(98/10)
3,960(01/10)
2,720(03/4)
3,660(05/7)
1,491(09/2)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(A)
(B)
(5)
(4)
(3)(1)
(C)
I
II
1,000
12,00010,000
8,000
5,000
3,000
1,500
15,00018,000
2,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
7,190(07/5)
16,950(00/3)
4,318(89/10)2,663
(81/6)
1,491(09/2)1,164
(87/4)
1,675(92/8)
2,720(03/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
5,000
500
15,00010,000
2,000
20,000
1,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 1.2 19 21 -0.2 4 5 Feb 23 18 1.8 22 19 1.2 2 6 Mar 24 17 3.9 24 17 1.9 5 3 Apr 24 17 2.4 20 21 1.0 5 3 May 20 21 -0.3 22 19 -0.7 5 0 Jun 19 22 0.3 17 24 -0.1 1 3 Jul 17 24 -0.5 16 25 -0.5 4 3 Aug 16 25 -2.1 10 31 -1.6 1 3 Sep 17 24 -0.9 16 25 0.2 1 2 Oct 20 21 -1.2 18 23 -0.4 4 6 Nov 21 20 1.2 20 21 0.9 2 2 Dec 30 11 5.0 28 13 3.3 7 5 Jan-Mar 26 14 7.4 20 20 3.1 11 14 Apr-Jun 23 18 2.6 23 18 0.2 11 6 Jul-Sep 15 26 -3.1 18 23 -1.9 6 8 Oct-Dec 27 14 4.8 24 17 3.6 13 13 Jan-Dec 25 15 14.5 22 18 5.6 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
26 Technical insight
Nissan Motor [7201] (¥815) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.
• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of January 2007, November 2007, and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥845, or even ¥909, a 50% retracement of the decline from the January 2007 high of ¥1,557 to the February 2009 low of ¥261.
• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have weakened slightly, with growth recently slowing in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week).
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
dif ferent ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
998(08/6/6)
1,455(03/9/17)
1,556(06/5/8)
1,557(07/1/30)
1,388(07/11/1)
735(09/8/4)
845(10/4/6)
600(10/7/22)
786(08/3/18)
1,048(07/8/17)
772(03/3/13)
1,025(05/4/21)
1,133(06/7/24)
261(09/2/9)
571(09/9/28)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
76.4%
61.8%
38.2%
Fibonacci retracement07/1/30→09/2/9
50.0%
(B)
(C)
1
(yy/m/d)
2
3(1)
-20
-10
0
10
20(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
20406080
100120140
Relative price vs TOPIX
-30-20-10
0102030
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)Long margin balance (red bar), Net margin balance (blue line)Short margin balance (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 27
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 815 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 13.6 Prev mo-end 785 3.8 P/B (x) 1.30
(¥) Prev yr-end 810 0.6 ROE (forecast) (%) 9.5 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.22 YTD high 845 -3.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.43 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 600 35.8 RSI (25) 71.2 62.9 (Low→ latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 50.0 Historical high 1,700 -52.1 Stoch-fast (13,9) 69.0 87.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 68.2 87.0
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.26 Ratio (x)5-day 818 -0.4 up Short margin (mn shs) 8.19 0.89 25-day 788 3.4 up I II III75-day 731 11.5 up High 100% 1,557 1,700 845 200-day 716 13.9 up 76.4% 1,251 1,360 707 5-wk 799 2.0 up 61.8% 1,062 1,150 622 13-wk 758 7.5 up 50.0% 909 981 553 26-wk 704 15.8 up 38.2% 756 811 484 52-wk 727 12.2 up 23.6% 567 601 399 12-mo 725 12.4 up Low 0.0% 261 261 261 24-mo 640 27.4 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 935 -12.8 down 721 725 979 120-mo 968 -15.8 up 693 676 790
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/6)
(10/7/22)
(89/6/1)
Closingprice
3,684
↑
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
828(12/3)
764(10/18)
683(11/2)
600(7/22)
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1,557(07/1)
1,556(06/5)1,455
(03/9)
1,041(02/5)900
(01/7)770(99/10)
1,020(96/6)934
(94/3)
1,700(89/6)
845(10/4)
600(10/7)
1,025(05/4)
772(03/3)
405(01/9)351
(00/2)290
(98/10)
480(95/6)
529(92/11)
529(86/3)
261(09/2)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5) (B)
(A) (C)
B
A
C
(1)
I
III
II
200
2,000
1,500
1,000
800
500
300
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
1,557(07/1)
1,020(96/6)
1,700(89/6)
1,024(81/8)
261(09/2)
290(98/10)
529(92/11)
529(86/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
2,0001,500
500
200
2,500up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lows
Jan 22 18 2.8 19 21 1.3 9 13 Feb 20 21 1.5 21 20 1.0 2 3 Mar 23 18 1.9 21 20 -0.1 3 3 Apr 25 16 4.2 22 19 2.7 6 2 May 20 21 0.1 14 27 -0.1 3 0 Jun 25 16 2.8 27 14 2.2 3 1 Jul 16 25 -0.8 16 25 -0.8 2 3 Aug 18 23 -1.0 17 24 -0.6 2 1 Sep 23 18 -0.6 24 17 0.5 2 3 Oct 21 20 0.1 20 21 1.0 3 4 Nov 19 22 -2.1 16 25 -2.3 1 1 Dec 21 20 2.1 18 23 0.4 5 7 Jan-Mar 23 17 7.1 18 22 2.6 14 19 Apr-Jun 26 15 7.6 24 17 4.9 12 3 Jul-Sep 17 24 -2.6 14 27 -1.2 6 7 Oct-Dec 21 20 0.7 18 23 -0.4 9 12 Jan-Dec 22 18 14.4 21 19 6.8 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
28 Technical insight
Toyota Motor [7203] (¥3,280) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the December 2008 low of ¥2,585 and the
November 2010 low of ¥2,800.
• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of February 2007, July 2007, and January 2010. We see increasing signs of a chart upturn, such as the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looking like returning to positive territory after forming a golden cross.
• For now, we expect the stock to test a rebound to the medium-term double bottom neckline of around ¥4,200, where the August 2009 and January 2010 highs can be found.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
02,0004,0006,0008,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
4,235(10/1/21)
4,190(09/8/10)
5,710(08/6/6)
3,920(03/9/16)
4,520(04/7/14)
6,950(06/4/21)
8,350(07/2/27) 7,880
(07/7/4)
2,800(10/11/1)
3,290(09/11/27)
2,585(08/12/8)
4,800(08/4/14)
2,455(03/4/14)
3,780(04/12/1)
3,790(05/4/21)
5,430(06/6/14)
3,130(03/10/31)
6,130(07/8/17)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
38.2%
61.8%
100%
76.4%
50.0%
23.6%
Fibonacci retracement07/2/27→08/12/8
(5)
(4)
(A
(B)
(yy/m/d)(C)
1
2
3
(1)
-6-30
36
(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
708090
100110120130
Relative price vs TOPIX
-10-505
1015
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 29
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,280 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 32.3 Prev mo-end 3,220 1.9 P/B (x) 1.11
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,880 -15.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 3.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.37 YTD high 4,235 -22.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.98 (High→ latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,800 17.1 RSI (25) 76.2 51.2 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 50.0 Historical high 8,350 -60.7 Stoch-fast (13,9) 73.9 65.9 (High→ latest) Stoch-slow (3) 77.6 57.7
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 4.87 Ratio (x)5-day 3,275 0.2 down Short margin (mn shs) 4.34 1.12 25-day 3,171 3.4 up I II III75-day 3,022 8.5 up High 100% 8,350 8,350 200-day 3,232 1.5 down 76.4% 6,989 6,677 5-wk 3,241 1.2 up 61.8% 6,148 5,642 13-wk 3,067 6.9 up 50.0% 5,468 4,805 26-wk 3,063 7.1 up 38.2% 4,787 3,968 52-wk 3,328 -1.5 down 23.6% 3,946 2,933 12-mo 3,238 1.3 down Low 0.0% 2,585 1,260 24-mo 3,414 -3.9 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,023 -34.7 down 2,981 3,693 5,605 120-mo 4,381 -25.1 down 2,923 3,561 4,935
11,309
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/21)
(10/11/1)
(07/2/27)
Closingprice
0200400600800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
3,340(11/25)
3,155(9/24)
2,806(9/1)
2,800(11/1)
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,235(10/1)
8,350(07/2)6,950
(06/4)
4,520(04/7)
5,800(00/4)
4,030(97/5)
2,250(94/6)
2,428(89/10) 2,800
(10/11)
3,790(05/4)
2,455(03/4)
2,665(01/9)
2,530(98/10)
1,590(95/5)
1,260(92/3)
2,585(08/12)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
(4)
(3)
3
4
5
2
1(A)
(B)
I
II
(C)
1,000
6,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
8,000
5,000
(1)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
2,428(89/10)
5,800(00/4)
8,350(07/2)
2,455(03/4)
1,260(92/3)
2,585(08/12)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
5,000
2,000
500
8,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.8 19 21 -0.5 4 10 Feb 17 24 0.4 17 24 -0.2 4 3 Mar 24 17 2.8 22 19 0.8 4 4 Apr 28 13 4.9 24 17 3.6 2 5 May 20 21 0.2 17 24 -0.0 4 1 Jun 24 17 2.3 25 16 1.8 3 1 Jul 16 25 -1.1 15 26 -1.1 3 3 Aug 23 18 -1.1 16 25 -0.6 2 1 Sep 22 19 -0.2 21 20 1.0 1 2 Oct 20 21 -0.2 22 19 0.8 3 1 Nov 19 22 -0.6 22 19 -0.8 1 3 Dec 28 13 4.6 25 16 2.9 10 7 Jan-Mar 22 18 4.3 21 19 0.3 12 17 Apr-Jun 28 13 7.6 25 16 5.3 9 7 Jul-Sep 17 24 -2.6 16 25 -0.9 6 6 Oct-Dec 26 15 4.1 23 18 2.9 14 11 Jan-Dec 25 15 15.9 24 16 7.8 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
30 Technical insight
Honda Motor [7267] (¥3,135) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.
• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of February 2007 and January 2010. We think the stock will next test the January 2010 high of ¥3,410, or even ¥3,680, a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥4,940 to the December 2008 low of ¥1,643.
• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with growth peaking out in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,410(10/1/15)
3,070(09/5/7)
3,910(08/6/6)
4,400(07/11/1)
4,940(07/2/14)
4,285(06/4/27)
2,850(05/3/8)
2,820(04/9/14)
2,755(03/9/17)
2,470(10/7/6) 2,300
(09/7/9)
1,643(08/12/8)
2,610(08/3/18)
3,430(07/8/17) 3,270
(06/6/14)
2,510(05/5/2)
2,415(04/12/1)
2,045(03/11/19)1,785
(03/4/25)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Fibonacci retracement07/2/14→08/12/8
100%
50.0%
76.4%
0.0%
61.8%
23.6%
(5)
38.2%
(yy/m/d)(C)
(B)
(A)
1
2
3
(1)
-8
-40
4
8(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
6080
100120140160
Relative price vs TOPIX
-8-4048
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 31
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,135 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 11.4 Prev mo-end 3,010 4.2 P/B (x) 1.30
(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 3,110 0.8 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.53 YTD high 3,410 -8.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.19 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,470 26.9 RSI (25) 65.4 62.5 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 41.7 Historical high 4,940 -36.5 Stoch-fast (13,9) 53.6 76.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 54.5 76.4
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.24 Ratio (x)5-day 3,127 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.76 0.70 25-day 3,039 3.2 up I II III75-day 2,950 6.3 up High 100% 4,940 4,940 200-day 2,948 6.3 up 76.4% 4,162 3,904 5-wk 3,097 1.2 up 61.8% 3,681 3,263 13-wk 3,008 4.2 up 50.0% 3,292 2,745 26-wk 2,866 9.4 up 38.2% 2,902 2,227 52-wk 2,986 5.0 up 23.6% 2,421 1,586 12-mo 2,964 5.8 up Low 0.0% 1,643 550 24-mo 2,835 10.6 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 3,348 -6.4 down 2,901 2,976 3,358 120-mo 2,927 7.1 up 2,886 2,855 3,100
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/15)
(10/7/6)
(07/2/14)
Closingprice
5,679
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0100200300400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
3,065(9/21)
3,195(11/19)
2,713(11/2)
2,470(7/6)
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
3,410(10/1)
1,260(88/7)
840(92/4)
980(94/6)
2,765(98/7)
2,940(99/4)
2,960(01/8)
2,995(02/5)
4,940(07/2)
2,470(10/7)
1,643(08/12)
570(91/1)
550(92/7)
565(95/6)
1,435(98/10)
1,690(00/6) 1,545
(01/9)
1,785(03/4)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
3
(3)
(4)
5
2
1
(A)
(C)
I
II4
500
5,0004,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
(1)(B)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
4,940(07/2)2,940
(99/4)1,260(88/7) 1,643
(08/12)
550(92/7)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
2,000
3,000
500
5,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 2.1 22 18 0.7 4 15 Feb 22 19 2.5 22 19 1.9 1 2 Mar 25 16 2.7 17 24 0.8 2 4 Apr 26 15 3.7 23 18 2.3 5 2 May 16 25 -1.4 15 26 -1.7 3 1 Jun 24 17 2.4 21 20 1.9 4 2 Jul 25 16 1.9 19 22 2.0 3 3 Aug 17 24 -1.7 19 22 -1.2 3 1 Sep 19 22 -1.4 22 19 -0.3 2 2 Oct 17 24 -0.6 22 19 0.3 3 2 Nov 21 20 0.5 18 23 0.2 2 3 Dec 28 13 5.4 26 15 3.6 9 4 Jan-Mar 26 14 7.1 21 19 3.1 7 21 Apr-Jun 24 17 4.6 21 20 2.3 12 5 Jul-Sep 20 21 -1.4 20 21 0.4 8 6 Oct-Dec 24 17 5.4 23 18 4.2 14 9 Jan-Dec 28 12 18.3 23 17 10.5 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
32 Technical insight
Canon [7751] (¥4,085) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.
• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of June 2007 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥4,520, or even ¥4,780, a 50% retracement of the decline from the June 2007 high of ¥7,450 to the March 2009 low of ¥2,115.
• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) forming a dead cross. We expect a near-term temporary correction.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
01,0002,0003,0004,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,750(09/9/16)
5,820(08/6/2)
6,013(06/5/2)
4,087(05/7/20)3,880
(04/6/17)
4,140(03/9/17)
7,450(07/6/25)
4,520(10/4/5)
3,205(10/7/1)
3,180(09/11/27)
2,115(09/3/9)
4,847(06/6/14)
3,587(05/8/15)3,273
(04/8/16)3,080(03/11/19)
2,607(03/3/11)
4,100(08/3/17)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
0.0%
Fibonacci retracement07/6/25→09/3/9
(5)
23.6%
(yy/m/d)(C)
(B)
(A)
1
2
3(1)
-8
-40
4
8(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
708090
100110120130140
Relative price vs TOPIX
-8-40
48
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 33
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 4,085 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 22.2 Prev mo-end 3,945 3.5 P/B (x) 2.02
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,910 4.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 9.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.69 YTD high 4,520 -9.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.39 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,205 27.5 RSI (25) 69.7 55.3 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 50.0 Historical high 7,450 -45.2 Stoch-fast (13,9) 68.6 82.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 67.5 81.5
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.30 Ratio (x)5-day 4,074 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.62 0.80 25-day 3,976 2.7 up I II III75-day 3,813 7.1 up High 100% 7,450 7,450 200-day 3,839 6.4 up 76.4% 6,191 5,881 5-wk 4,030 1.4 up 61.8% 5,412 4,910 13-wk 3,913 4.4 up 50.0% 4,783 4,125 26-wk 3,739 9.2 up 38.2% 4,153 3,340 52-wk 3,836 6.5 up 23.6% 3,374 2,369 12-mo 3,819 7.0 up Low 0.0% 2,115 800 24-mo 3,518 16.1 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,694 -13.0 down 3,746 3,973 4,833 120-mo 4,015 1.7 up 3,690 3,710 4,425
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/5)
(10/7/1)
(07/6/25)
Closingprice
5,448
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0200400600800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
4,075(11/19)3,995
(9/30)3,875(8/3)
3,205(7/1)
3,590(10/27)
3,385(8/27)
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
7,450(07/6)
4,140(03/9)3,747
(00/7)
2,547(97/8)
1,213(94/6)
1,360(89/10)
4,520(10/4)
3,205(10/7)
2,115(09/3)
3,587(05/8)
2,607(03/3)2,100
(01/9)
1,287(98/10)
820(95/5)
800(92/7)
800(90/11)
413(87/4)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(3) (1)
I
II(A)
(C)
(B)
1,000
6,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
8,000
500
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
7,450(07/6)
3,747(00/7)
1,360(89/10)909
(85/3)
2,115(09/3)1,287
(98/10)820(95/5)
413(87/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
5,000
2,000
500
8,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 24 16 -0.1 16 24 -1.5 3 10 Feb 26 15 1.1 22 19 0.5 2 4 Mar 27 14 2.2 24 17 0.4 1 5 Apr 32 9 4.6 24 17 3.2 4 2 May 22 19 0.6 20 21 0.3 2 1 Jun 21 20 0.4 22 19 -0.0 6 1 Jul 16 25 -0.6 14 27 -0.7 2 5 Aug 20 21 -0.8 18 23 -0.3 4 2 Sep 23 18 0.9 26 15 2.1 1 2 Oct 19 22 -0.4 22 19 0.6 4 4 Nov 24 17 1.5 22 19 1.2 2 1 Dec 27 14 3.2 25 16 1.5 10 4 Jan-Mar 24 16 3.5 23 17 -0.0 6 19 Apr-Jun 26 15 5.9 25 16 3.5 12 4 Jul-Sep 19 22 -0.5 20 21 1.2 7 9 Oct-Dec 26 15 4.4 23 18 3.2 16 9 Jan-Dec 26 14 14.2 25 15 8.7 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
34 Technical insight
Nintendo [7974] (¥23,520 OSE) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the December 2009 low of ¥20,140 and the
October 2010 low of ¥20,180. • It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of November 2007 and April 2010. The
TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is also clearly bottoming by forming a golden cross. We expect the rebound to gain further momentum if the TOPIX-relative stock price manages to break out above the downward channel since 2008.
• We now expect the stock to test a rebound to around the April 2010 high of ¥32,950, the medium-term double bottom’s neckline, and close to a 23.6% retracement of the decline from the November 2007 high of ¥73,200 to the December 2009 low of ¥20,140.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
02,0004,000
6,0008,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
36,850(08/12/11) 32,950
(10/4/5)
61,800(07/7/26)
36,050(07/2/1)
13,560(04/10/4)
73,200(07/11/1)
63,900(08/6/26)
20,180(10/10/13)
20,140(09/12/4)
29,480(07/2/28)
7,970(03/5/23)
11,110(05/3/24)
45,600(08/2/6)
21,600(08/10/28)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Fibonacci retracement07/11/1→09/12/4
100%
76.4%
0.0%
50.0%
23.6%
61.8%
38.2%
(5)
(4)
2
1
3
1
5
(yy/m/d)
4
2
-15-10-505
101520
(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
0100200300
400
Relative price vs TOPIX
-10123
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 35
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 23,520 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 37.0 Prev mo-end 22,730 3.5 P/B (x) 2.74
(¥) Prev yr-end 22,040 6.7 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.33 YTD high 32,950 -28.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.08 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 20,180 16.6 RSI (25) 72.0 35.8 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 58.3 Historical high 73,200 -67.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 84.0 31.7 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 81.9 24.8
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.71 Ratio (x)5-day 23,452 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.23 3.06 25-day 21,871 7.5 up I II III75-day 22,253 5.7 up High 100% 73,200 73,200 73,200 200-day 25,226 -6.8 down 76.4% 60,678 57,806 56,980 5-wk 22,282 5.6 up 61.8% 52,931 48,282 46,945 13-wk 21,922 7.3 up 50.0% 46,670 40,585 38,835 26-wk 23,305 0.9 down 38.2% 40,409 32,888 30,725 52-wk 25,013 -6.0 up 23.6% 32,662 23,364 20,690 12-mo 25,096 -6.3 up Low 0.0% 20,140 7,970 4,470 24-mo 25,221 -6.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 34,047 -30.9 up 22,590 27,475 45,075 120-mo 23,993 -2.0 up 21,865 26,545 42,155
3,332
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/5)
(10/10/13)
(07/11/1)
Closingprice
0200400600800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
25,000(9/29)
20,180(10/13)
21,960(8/12)
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
13,560(04/10)
24,900(01/6)
26,400(00/2)
14,300(98/7)
8,700(96/1)
25,416(90/8)
5,535(86/12)
73,200(07/11)
32,950(10/4)
20,180(10/10)
11,110(05/3)
7,970(03/5)
12,970(01/9)
8,980(98/10)
4,470(95/6)
6,000(93/11)
8,500(92/8)
2,913(87/11)
20,140(09/12)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
(3)
(4)
I
IIIII
3,000
30,000
20,000
40,000
10,000
5,000
80,00060,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Aug 1970)
73,200(07/11)
26,400(00/2)
25,416(90/8)
20,140(09/12)7,970
(03/5)4,470(95/6)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
300
30,000
10,000
3,000
80,000
100
1,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 24 16 4.9 23 17 3.4 8 10 Feb 18 22 -0.2 13 27 -0.5 3 1 Mar 23 17 2.5 21 19 0.8 1 7 Apr 20 20 2.4 20 20 0.8 2 3 May 18 22 3.5 17 23 3.2 1 1 Jun 25 15 5.6 26 14 5.2 3 2 Jul 20 20 1.6 20 20 1.7 3 1 Aug 15 26 -0.8 16 25 -0.3 3 2 Sep 15 26 -1.1 18 23 -0.0 0 3 Oct 18 23 -1.0 21 20 -0.2 1 5 Nov 30 11 5.3 28 13 4.9 8 4 Dec 24 17 1.3 22 19 -0.2 8 2 Jan-Mar 19 21 8.2 17 23 5.0 12 18 Apr-Jun 27 13 12.4 24 16 9.6 6 6 Jul-Sep 18 22 -0.3 15 25 1.2 6 6 Oct-Dec 23 18 4.8 20 21 4.0 17 11 Jan-Dec 25 15 26.9 23 17 22.1 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
36 Technical insight
Mitsui & Co [8031] (¥1,379) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently at the start of upward subwave 3 of upward wave 3.
• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of October 2007 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥1,665, and after that ¥1,918 or a 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2007 high of ¥3,180 to the November 2008 low of ¥656.
• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with growth peaking out in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
1,665(10/4/12)
2,920(07/7/24)
1,841(06/4/20)
1,079(05/3/2)
1,021(04/4/13)
3,180(07/10/29)
2,760(08/5/19)
1,360(09/6/2)
995(10/7/6)
1,408(06/10/5)
901(05/5/17)770
(04/5/17)539
(03/5/21)
1,681(08/1/22)
1,970(07/8/17)
656(08/11/21)
1,015(09/7/13)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Fibonacci retracement07/10/29→08/11/21
100%
23.6%
38.2%
0.0%
61.8%
76.4%
50.0%
1
Start ofmedium-term wave
(98/10/1)
(1)
(2)
2
(yy/m/d)
(3)3
-18-12-606
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50100150200250300350
Relative price vs TOPIX
-100
10203040
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 37
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 1,379 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 7.9 Prev mo-end 1,307 5.5 P/B (x) 1.14
(¥) Prev yr-end 1,311 5.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 14.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.90 YTD high 1,665 -17.2 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.22 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 995 38.6 RSI (25) 67.2 62.7 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 75.0 Historical high 3,180 -56.6 Stoch-fast (13,9) 69.2 84.7 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 65.1 84.6
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 9.81 Ratio (x)5-day 1,355 1.7 up Short margin (mn shs) 2.93 3.35 25-day 1,328 3.9 up I II III75-day 1,258 9.6 up High 100% 3,180 3,180 3,180 200-day 1,295 6.5 up 76.4% 2,584 2,543 2,553 5-wk 1,339 3.0 up 61.8% 2,216 2,149 2,166 13-wk 1,300 6.1 up 50.0% 1,918 1,830 1,853 26-wk 1,217 13.3 up 38.2% 1,620 1,511 1,539 52-wk 1,307 5.5 up 23.6% 1,252 1,117 1,152 12-mo 1,288 7.1 up Low 0.0% 656 480 525 24-mo 1,207 14.2 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 1,664 -17.1 down 1,280 1,348 1,931 120-mo 1,247 10.6 up 1,222 1,340 1,813
2,522
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/12)
(10/7/6)
(07/10/29)
Closingprice
0
200
400
600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
1,216(8/10)
1,367(10/14)
995(7/6)
1,222(11/2)
1,076(9/1)
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1,665(10/4)
1,841(06/4)
1,021(04/4)931
(01/8)
1,019(99/4)
1,140(97/7)
885(94/8)
880(91/10)
1,410(90/1)
922(87/5)
3,180(07/10)
995(10/7)
1,408(06/10)
525(02/11)480
(98/10)
608(95/3)
495(92/6)
604(90/10)
597(88/1)
656(08/11)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
(C)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(B)
(A)
I
III
II
700
1,000
300
3,000
2,000
1,500
500
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
1,410(90/1) 1,140
(97/7)
3,180(07/10)
656(08/11)495
(92/6)480
(98/10)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
3,000
2,000
500
300
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 1.4 21 19 -0.1 7 10 Feb 21 20 1.0 21 20 0.3 0 2 Mar 27 14 3.4 23 18 1.4 3 4 Apr 21 20 1.2 19 22 -0.3 6 3 May 16 25 -0.4 16 25 -0.8 6 2 Jun 21 20 0.8 22 19 0.2 1 2 Jul 21 20 1.2 23 18 1.2 1 1 Aug 17 24 0.1 18 23 0.5 3 2 Sep 20 21 -0.5 18 23 0.6 2 1 Oct 21 20 -0.3 23 18 0.6 5 6 Nov 22 19 1.3 18 23 0.9 0 4 Dec 24 17 2.9 21 20 1.1 7 4 Jan-Mar 27 13 5.8 21 19 1.4 10 16 Apr-Jun 23 18 1.3 22 19 -0.9 13 7 Jul-Sep 21 20 1.2 20 21 2.2 6 4 Oct-Dec 22 19 4.2 23 18 3.0 12 14 Jan-Dec 25 15 13.3 24 16 4.1 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
38 Technical insight
Mitsubishi Corp [8058] (¥2,179) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently at the start of upward subwave 3 of 3rd upward wave 3.
• It recently broke through the medium-term resistance line linking the highs of May 2008 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the January 2010 high of ¥2,542, and after that ¥2,794 or a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the May 2008 high of ¥3,950 to the November 2008 low of ¥923.
• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have weakened slightly, with growth recently slowing in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
2,542(10/1/15)
2,035(09/6/12)
3,950(08/5/20) 3,810
(07/10/15)
1,283(04/4/14)
1,490(05/3/22)
2,940(06/4/21)
1,784(10/9/1)
923(08/11/21)
2,245(08/1/22)
936(04/5/10) 678
(03/4/30)
1,313(05/4/18)
1,984(06/11/21)
1,552(09/7/13)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Fibonacci retracement08/5/20→08/11/21
50.0%
0.0%
100%
23.6%
76.4%
38.2%
61.8%
Start ofmedium-term wave
(98/10/9)
1
(1)
(2)(yy/m/d)
2
(3)
3
-15-10-505
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50100150200250300350
Relative price vs TOPIX
-100
102030
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 39
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,179 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 9.2 Prev mo-end 2,116 3.0 P/B (x) 1.21
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,305 -5.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 13.0 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.56 YTD high 2,542 -14.3 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.21 (High→ latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,784 22.1 RSI (25) 74.3 59.2 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 75.0 75.0 Historical high 3,950 -44.8 Stoch-fast (13,9) 80.0 82.9 (High→ latest) Stoch-slow (3) 77.4 81.9
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.03 Ratio (x)5-day 2,168 0.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 3.29 2.14 25-day 2,116 3.0 up I II III75-day 1,999 9.0 up High 100% 3,950 3,950 3,950 200-day 2,069 5.3 down 76.4% 3,236 3,154 3,178 5-wk 2,137 2.0 up 61.8% 2,794 2,662 2,700 13-wk 2,050 6.3 up 50.0% 2,437 2,264 2,314 26-wk 1,972 10.5 up 38.2% 2,079 1,865 1,928 52-wk 2,107 3.4 down 23.6% 1,637 1,373 1,450 12-mo 2,075 5.0 down Low 0.0% 923 577 678 24-mo 1,899 14.8 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,393 -8.9 down 1,988 2,147 2,464 120-mo 1,753 24.3 up 1,952 2,047 2,437
Closingprice
3,698
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/15)
(10/9/1)
(08/5/20)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
200
400
600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,119(10/14)
1,918(11/1)
1,784(9/1)
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2,542(10/1)
1,660(87/5)
2,030(89/12)
1,450(91/10) 1,330
(94/11)
1,500(96/5)
1,450(97/6)
1,108(01/8)
1,245(03/10)
2,940(06/4)
3,950(08/5)
1,784(10/9)
941(87/12)
1,000(90/10)
813(93/2)
890(95/6)
950(97/1)
577(98/10)
693(01/3)
678(03/4)
936(04/5)
1,984(06/11)
923(08/11)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(5)
(C)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(B)
(A)
I
III
II
800
2,500
1,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,200
500
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
766(79/11)
2,030(89/12)
3,950(08/5)
427(82/8)
577(98/10)
923(08/11)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
100
3,000
2,000
500
4,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.9 18 22 -0.6 10 10 Feb 20 21 0.8 20 21 0.2 1 2 Mar 23 18 3.0 20 21 1.0 2 2 Apr 23 18 1.4 20 21 -0.0 3 3 May 17 24 0.3 18 23 -0.0 5 3 Jun 22 19 0.5 24 17 -0.0 2 2 Jul 22 19 1.1 25 16 1.1 0 1 Aug 19 22 0.1 18 23 0.5 3 3 Sep 25 16 2.3 27 14 3.4 1 4 Oct 23 18 -1.2 18 23 -0.4 5 4 Nov 23 18 2.1 23 18 1.7 2 5 Dec 23 18 2.1 18 23 0.4 7 2 Jan-Mar 25 15 5.0 18 22 0.7 13 14 Apr-Jun 23 18 2.3 20 21 -0.1 10 8 Jul-Sep 24 17 3.8 25 16 5.0 4 8 Oct-Dec 22 19 3.0 22 19 1.7 14 11 Jan-Dec 23 17 17.3 19 21 7.0 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
40 Technical insight
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306] (¥402) • The recent November 2010 low of ¥364 appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the March 2009 low
of ¥377, and forming a long-term double bottom with the April 2003 low of ¥351. The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began with the April 2006 high of ¥1,950.
• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of May 2009 and April 2010. The decline in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) also shows signs of ending. Bottoming momentum is gradually growing.
• We think the share price’s initial target is the April 2010 high of ¥520, and we next expect it to test the May 2009 high of ¥699.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
02,0004,0006,0008,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
929(03/10/15)
1,230(04/7/15)
1,060(05/1/7)
1,700(05/11/7)
1,950(06/4/7)
1,660(06/8/21)
1,252(07/12/11) 1,173
(08/4/30)
699(09/5/11)
520(10/4/15)
364(10/11/1)
1,370(06/6/14)
873(05/5/18)
858(04/10/25)
672(03/11/11)
351(03/4/28)
881(07/11/12) 782
(08/3/17)
377(09/3/10)
437(09/12/15)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0%
Fibonacci retracement06/4/7→10/11/1
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
100%
23.6%
38.2%
1
2
3 (yy/m/d)
4
5
-10-505
1015(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50
75100
125
150Relative price vs TOPIX
-100-50
050
100150200
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 41
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 402 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 11.4 Prev mo-end 396 1.5 P/B (x) 0.65
(¥) Prev yr-end 452 -11.1 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.7 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.98 YTD high 520 -22.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.99 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 364 10.4 RSI (25) 66.4 46.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 50.0 Historical high 1,950 -79.4 Stoch-fast (13,9) 43.1 38.9 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 46.8 36.0
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 98.1 Ratio (x)5-day 401 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 6.7 14.74 25-day 395 1.7 up I II III75-day 398 1.0 down High 100% 1,950 1,950 200-day 430 -6.6 down 76.4% 1,576 1,573 5-wk 402 -0.0 up 61.8% 1,344 1,339 13-wk 396 1.6 down 50.0% 1,157 1,151 26-wk 405 -0.8 down 38.2% 970 962 52-wk 437 -8.0 down 23.6% 738 728 12-mo 428 -6.1 down Low 0.0% 364 351 24-mo 474 -15.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 933 -56.9 down 400 535 1,220 120-mo N/A N/A N/A 382 464 920
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/15)
(10/11/1)
(06/4/7)
Closingprice
5,689
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0200400600800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
420(11/19)
440(7/29)
364(11/1)
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
699(09/5)
1,173(08/4)
1,950(06/4)
1,230(04/7)1,060
(02/6)
1,350(01/5)
364(10/11)
377(09/3)
782(08/3)
873(05/5)
351(03/4)
688(02/2)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
I
II
1,500
1,200
1,000
800
500
300
1,8002,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since May 2001)
1,950(06/4)
1,350(01/5)
364(10/11)
351(03/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,200
300
1,500
1,000
2,000
500
800
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 2 7 -2.7 4 5 -0.5 1 0 Feb 4 5 -3.3 2 7 -3.6 0 1 Mar 4 5 0.3 2 7 -1.5 0 1 Apr 4 5 3.7 5 4 1.3 3 1 May 4 6 -0.2 6 4 -0.0 2 1 Jun 5 5 -1.1 4 6 -1.3 1 0 Jul 5 5 -0.7 6 4 0.9 1 0 Aug 5 5 1.8 5 5 2.4 0 0 Sep 4 6 0.1 4 6 1.8 0 0 Oct 3 7 -3.0 3 7 -1.1 1 0 Nov 5 5 -1.2 5 5 -0.8 1 3 Dec 6 4 0.2 3 7 -2.1 0 3 Jan-Mar 3 6 -5.3 3 6 -5.4 1 2 Apr-Jun 6 3 3.4 5 4 0.7 6 2 Jul-Sep 3 7 2.1 5 5 5.3 1 0 Oct-Dec 5 5 -3.6 3 7 -3.7 2 6 Jan-Dec 3 6 -3.6 3 6 -6.1 10 10
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
42 Technical insight
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316] (¥2,620) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term triple bottom between the March 2009 low of ¥2,585, the January
2010 low of ¥2,591, and the November 2010 low of ¥2,325. The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began with the April 2006 high of ¥13,900.
• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of June 2009 and April 2010. The decline in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) also shows signs of ending. Bottoming momentum is gradually growing.
• We think the share price’s initial target is the April 2010 high of ¥3,355, and we next expect it to test the June 2009 high of ¥4,520.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
02,0004,0006,0008,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
3,355(10/4/15)
6,760(03/10/20)
8,540(04/4/14)
7,540(05/3/14)
13,900(06/4/11) 13,500
(06/9/1)
12,100(07/6/12)
9,640(08/6/6)
4,520(09/6/12)
2,325(10/11/2)
2,591(10/1/5)
10,100(07/3/19)
1,620(03/4/4)
4,390(03/11/18)
5,990(04/8/16)
6,590(05/5/17)
10,600(06/6/14)
6,330(08/3/17)
2,585(09/3/10)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
38.2%
76.4%
50.0%
61.8%
23.6%
Fibonacci retracement06/4/11→10/11/2
2
1
3 (yy/m/d)
Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank
4
5
-15-10-505
1015
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
406080
100120140160180200
Relative price vs TOPIX
-20-10
0102030
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 43
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,620 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 6.9 Prev mo-end 2,569 2.0 P/B (x) 0.75
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,645 -0.9 ROE (forecast) (%) 10.8 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 3.81 YTD high 3,355 -21.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.01 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,325 12.7 RSI (25) 67.2 49.0 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 50.0 Historical high 40,520 -93.5 Stoch-fast (13,9) 58.1 47.5 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 60.5 41.7
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 12.56 Ratio (x)5-day 2,620 0.0 up Short margin (mn shs) 2.07 6.07 25-day 2,546 2.9 up I II III75-day 2,517 4.1 down High 100% 13,900 13,900 40,520 200-day 2,704 -3.1 down 76.4% 11,168 11,002 31,340 5-wk 2,596 0.9 up 61.8% 9,478 9,209 25,660 13-wk 2,518 4.0 up 50.0% 8,113 7,760 21,070 26-wk 2,555 2.5 down 38.2% 6,747 6,311 16,480 52-wk 2,735 -4.2 down 23.6% 5,057 4,518 10,800 12-mo 2,704 -3.1 down Low 0.0% 2,325 1,620 1,620 24-mo 3,064 -14.5 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 7,160 -63.4 down 2,508 3,448 8,525 120-mo 7,009 -62.6 down 2,444 2,954 7,103
3,705
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/15)
(10/11/2)
(87/4/15)
Closingprice
0200400600800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,685(11/19)
2,743(8/3)
2,325(11/2)
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
13,900(06/4)
8,540(04/4)7,660
(02/6)
19,020(99/8)
23,200(95/12)
24,800(93/8)
26,400(91/11)
36,990(89/8)
40,520(87/4)
4,520(09/6)
2,325(10/11)
5,990(04/8)
1,620(03/4)
4,060(02/2)
8,600(98/10)
14,500(95/6)
11,100(92/4)
15,100(90/9)
23,260(87/11)
2,585(09/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
I
IIIII
Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank
2,000
20,00015,000
10,000
7,000
5,000
3,000
30,000
40,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
3,400(73/1)
40,520(87/4)
13,900(06/4)
2,325(10/11)1,550
(75/8)
3,890(84/1)
8,600(98/10)
1,620(03/4)
11,100(92/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank
(CY)
5,000
1,000
20,000
10,000
3,000
30,000
2,000
40,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 26 12 4.4 20 18 2.4 10 14 Feb 21 18 -0.1 17 22 -0.9 1 1 Mar 25 14 2.9 19 20 1.0 1 2 Apr 17 22 -0.5 8 31 -1.8 4 2 May 26 13 1.2 18 21 0.7 1 2 Jun 23 16 -0.0 14 25 -0.7 3 2 Jul 24 15 0.7 19 20 0.7 2 1 Aug 21 18 0.6 21 18 0.9 4 2 Sep 18 21 -0.7 18 21 0.5 0 2 Oct 20 19 -0.4 20 19 0.3 1 1 Nov 23 16 0.9 23 16 0.6 1 7 Dec 26 13 0.9 22 17 -0.6 11 3 Jan-Mar 21 17 8.2 16 22 3.0 12 17 Apr-Jun 18 21 0.5 14 25 -1.9 8 6 Jul-Sep 21 18 0.9 21 18 2.2 6 5 Oct-Dec 24 15 2.0 21 18 0.6 13 11 Jan-Dec 20 18 13.5 16 22 3.2 39 39
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
44 Technical insight
Mizuho Financial Group [8411] (¥137) • The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began
with the April 2006 high of ¥1,030. The stock now looks likely to break above its diagonal triangle chart pattern since January 2009.
• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of June 2009 and March 2010. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is also clearly bottoming by forming a golden cross.
• We think the share price’s initial target is the March 2010 high of ¥196, and we next expect it to test the June 2009 high of ¥274.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
196(10/3/26)
911(07/6/11)
1,030(06/4/19)
538(05/3/22)
560(04/4/14)
329(03/10/14)
606(08/6/3)
299(09/1/6) 274
(09/6/12)
110(10/10/4)
707(07/4/26)
469(05/4/21)
391(04/10/25)
206(03/11/18)
58.3(03/4/28)
360(08/3/18)
190(08/10/28)
166(09/3/10) 146
(09/11/27)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
Data before 5 Mar 2003 are connected with the price of Mizuho Holdings
Fibonacci retracement06/4/19→10/10/4
100%
0.0%
76.4%
50.0%
23.6%
61.8%
38.2%
1
2
3
(yy/m/d)
4
5
-20-10
0
1020
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
0100200300400500
Relative price vs TOPIX
-300
0
300
600
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 45
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 137 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 5.9 Prev mo-end 133.0 3.0 P/B (x) 0.76
(¥) Prev yr-end 166.0 -17.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 12.9 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.37 YTD high 196 -30.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.92 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 110 24.5 RSI (25) 74.4 41.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 58.3 58.3 Historical high 1,030 -86.7 Stoch-fast (13,9) 72.2 54.1 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 73.8 48.3
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 324.3 Ratio (x)5-day 136 0.9 up Short margin (mn shs) 46.1 7.03 25-day 130 5.4 up I II III75-day 127 7.6 up High 100% 1,030 1,030 200-day 150 -9.0 down 76.4% 813 801 5-wk 134 2.4 up 61.8% 679 659 13-wk 126 8.3 up 50.0% 570 544 26-wk 133 3.0 down 38.2% 461 429 52-wk 155 -11.7 down 23.6% 327 288 12-mo 150 -8.9 down Low 0.0% 110 58 24-mo 175 -21.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 489 -72.0 down 124 209 610 120-mo 443 -69.1 down 119 173 486
Closingprice
2,952
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/3/26)
(10/10/4)
(06/4/19)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0500
1,0001,5002,000
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
139(11/22)
130(10/7)
145(8/3)
110(10/4)
113(10/29)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
274(09/6)
964(00/10)
382(02/3)
560(04/4)
1,030(06/4)
606(08/6)
110(10/10)
58.3(03/4)
198(02/2)
391(04/10)
360(08/3)
166(09/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
I
II
Data before 5 Mar 2003 are connected with the price of Mizuho Holdings
50
800
500
200
400
300
80100
1,000
150
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Oct 2000)
1,030(06/4)
964(00/10)
110(10/10)
58.3(03/4)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
Data before 5 Mar 2003 are connected with the price of Mizuho Holdings
300
50
800
500
200
1,000
100
150
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 4 6 -2.8 3 7 -1.1 2 0 Feb 4 6 -2.3 4 6 -2.1 0 1 Mar 5 5 2.9 2 8 0.7 2 0 Apr 5 5 2.8 6 4 -0.1 3 2 May 6 4 1.3 7 3 1.4 0 0 Jun 3 7 0.6 3 7 0.3 1 0 Jul 4 6 -1.5 5 5 -0.1 0 0 Aug 5 5 2.5 5 5 2.9 0 0 Sep 3 7 4.2 5 5 5.7 0 0 Oct 3 8 -8.9 5 6 -7.0 2 2 Nov 5 6 -3.3 5 6 -2.8 0 4 Dec 6 5 0.4 5 6 -1.4 1 2 Jan-Mar 4 6 -1.9 4 6 -2.6 4 1 Apr-Jun 5 5 2.6 5 5 0.2 4 2 Jul-Sep 3 7 10.0 5 5 11.4 0 0 Oct-Dec 4 7 -9.2 4 7 -9.2 3 8 Jan-Dec 3 7 6.1 3 7 -0.6 11 11
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
46 Technical insight
Tokio Marine Holdings [8766] (¥2,389) • The recent rise has taken share price through the medium-term resistance line running through highs of June 2007,
May 2008, and April 2010. We think the 29 October low of ¥2,223 marked a near-term bottom.
• We see potential for an attempt at the April 2010 high of ¥2,910 and the May 2009 high of ¥3,070. However, the TOPIX-relative stock price has recently been weak, and the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has again slipped into negative territory, pointing to lackluster share price momentum of late.
• We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the May 2009 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line through the March 2009 and October 2010 lows.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
500
1,000
1,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
2,910(10/4/16)
3,070(09/5/11)
4,670(08/5/2)
2,980(03/10/14)
3,460(04/4/2) 3,340
(05/3/22)
4,880(06/4/11) 4,750
(06/10/25)
5,560(07/6/11)
2,223(10/10/29)
2,255(09/11/4)
1,756(09/3/10)
3,320(08/1/22)
1,412(03/3/11)
2,320(03/11/19)
2,640(04/10/25)
2,760(05/6/3)
3,620(06/6/8)
3,780(06/11/17)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/6/11→09/3/10
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
23.6%
(1)
(2)
(3)
2
(yy/m/d)
1 3
-8-4048
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
80100120140160180200
Relative price vs TOPIX
-3-2-10123
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 47
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,389 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 16.7 Prev mo-end 2,367 0.9 P/B (x) 0.95
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,530 -5.6 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.7 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.09 YTD high 2,910 -17.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.01 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,223 7.5 RSI (25) 57.5 47.5 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 33.3 Historical high 5,560 -57.0 Stoch-fast (13,9) 37.9 53.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 39.7 50.8
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.72 Ratio (x)5-day 2,384 0.2 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.28 2.59 25-day 2,373 0.7 up I II III75-day 2,345 1.9 up High 100% 5,560 5,560 200-day 2,457 -2.8 down 76.4% 4,662 4,581 5-wk 2,393 -0.2 up 61.8% 4,107 3,975 13-wk 2,351 1.6 up 50.0% 3,658 3,486 26-wk 2,356 1.4 down 38.2% 3,209 2,997 52-wk 2,476 -3.5 down 23.6% 2,654 2,391 12-mo 2,432 -1.8 down Low 0.0% 1,756 1,412 24-mo 2,494 -4.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 3,493 -31.6 down 2,341 2,640 3,903 120-mo N/A N/A N/A 2,308 2,593 3,468
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/16)
(10/10/29)
(07/6/11)
Closingprice
1,922
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
050
100150200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,496(7/14) 2,455
(9/15)
2,510(11/19)2,458
(10/14)
2,223(10/29)
2,233(10/5)
2,232(9/1)
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
3,070(09/5)
4,670(08/5)
5,560(07/6)4,880
(06/4)
3,460(04/4)
2,280(02/5)
2,223(10/10)
1,756(09/3)
3,320(08/1)
2,760(05/6)
1,412(03/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(1)
(2)
(3)
III
1,500
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since May 2002)
5,560(07/6)
1,756(09/3)1,412
(03/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
3,000
1,500
5,0004,000
2,500
6,000
2,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 3 5 0.3 5 3 2.2 0 0 Feb 5 3 0.9 4 4 1.3 0 0 Mar 4 4 1.1 5 3 -0.3 0 2 Apr 5 3 3.5 5 3 1.3 3 0 May 5 4 0.6 5 4 0.4 3 1 Jun 5 4 0.8 6 3 0.7 1 2 Jul 5 4 1.9 5 4 2.6 0 0 Aug 4 5 -0.9 5 4 -0.9 0 0 Sep 5 4 0.5 5 4 1.7 0 0 Oct 4 5 -1.4 6 3 1.5 1 1 Nov 4 5 -4.6 2 7 -4.2 1 1 Dec 7 2 3.2 4 5 0.3 0 2 Jan-Mar 5 3 2.2 5 3 3.0 0 2 Apr-Jun 5 3 5.1 4 4 1.9 7 3 Jul-Sep 2 7 2.0 5 4 3.4 0 0 Oct-Dec 5 4 -3.0 2 7 -3.0 2 4 Jan-Dec 4 4 7.5 4 4 4.4 9 9
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
48 Technical insight
Mitsubishi Estate [8802] (¥1,433) • Wave formation suggests the stock is in the initial phase of a rally corresponding to the upward subwave 3 of
upward wave 3.
• We look for the stock to regain the April high of ¥1,723 and then make an attempt at ¥2,088, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥4,070 to the March 2009 low of ¥863.
• However, recent share price momentum has been weak, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross. We expect a brief correction in the near term.
• A substantive rally is unlikely until the TOPIX-relative stock price breaks out of its triangular holding pattern since October 2008 on the upside.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
1,723(10/4/30)
3,650(07/10/9)
4,070(07/5/10)
2,840(06/2/8)
1,399(05/3/22)
1,523(04/4/14)
3,160(08/4/28)
1,738(09/6/15)
1,153(10/7/22)
1,239(09/11/20)
2,630(07/9/10)
2,015(06/6/14)
1,121(05/6/10)
1,102(04/10/29)
657(03/4/14)
2,170(08/3/17)
863(09/3/9)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/5/10→09/3/9
61.8%
(1)
(2)
1
(yy/m/d)
2
3
(3)
-10
-5
0
5
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
60
100
140
180
220
Relative price vs TOPIX
-8-4048
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 49
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 1,443 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 31.8 Prev mo-end 1,412 2.2 P/B (x) 1.70
(¥) Prev yr-end 1,478 -2.4 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.83 YTD high 1,723 -16.3 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.17 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,153 25.2 RSI (25) 54.3 55.0 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 66.7 Historical high 4,070 -64.5 Stoch-fast (13,9) 31.6 74.4 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 29.9 77.2
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 2.42 Ratio (x)5-day 1,441 0.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.59 1.52 25-day 1,451 -0.6 up I II III75-day 1,403 2.9 up High 100% 4,070 4,070 200-day 1,404 2.8 up 76.4% 3,313 3,265 5-wk 1,445 -0.1 down 61.8% 2,845 2,766 13-wk 1,438 0.4 up 50.0% 2,467 2,364 26-wk 1,355 6.5 up 38.2% 2,088 1,961 52-wk 1,422 1.5 down 23.6% 1,620 1,462 12-mo 1,403 2.8 down Low 0.0% 863 657 24-mo 1,391 3.8 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,214 -34.8 down 1,438 1,505 2,586 120-mo 1,675 -13.8 up 1,377 1,489 2,302
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/30)
(10/7/22)
(07/5/10)
Closingprice
2,006
↑
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
1,524(11/8)
1,541(10/14)
1,388(11/1)
1,153(7/22)
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,070(07/5)
2,840(06/2)
1,523(04/4)
1,440(01/8)
1,860(97/10)
1,300(94/5)
1,680(91/2)
3,000(88/11)
3,520(87/4)
1,738(09/6)
1,153(10/7)
2,015(06/6)
1,102(04/10)
657(03/4)
792(02/2)
787(98/10)
880(95/3)
716(92/6)
995(90/9)
1,518(88/1)
863(08/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(2)
(5)
(C)
(1)
(B)
(A)
(3)
III
IV
III
800
2,000
4,000
3,0002,500
1,500
1,200
1,000
500
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
3,520(87/4)
1,860(97/10)
4,070(07/5)
456(72/12)
657(03/4)
716(92/6)
211(76/11)
863(09/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,500
1,000
3,0002,000
500
4,000
200
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 1.0 18 22 -0.4 7 12 Feb 22 19 1.3 24 17 0.7 2 3 Mar 26 15 4.3 22 19 2.1 3 5 Apr 23 18 0.8 18 23 -0.6 6 2 May 19 22 0.1 16 25 -0.3 4 1 Jun 23 18 -0.6 11 30 -1.3 2 4 Jul 21 20 -0.2 19 22 -0.2 1 1 Aug 25 16 2.0 24 17 2.6 1 1 Sep 21 20 1.0 24 17 2.2 1 1 Oct 20 21 -0.2 22 19 0.8 4 2 Nov 22 19 -0.3 20 21 -0.6 3 3 Dec 25 16 1.5 18 23 -0.2 7 6 Jan-Mar 24 16 6.9 20 20 2.1 12 20 Apr-Jun 17 24 -0.0 12 29 -2.3 12 7 Jul-Sep 21 20 3.3 26 15 4.9 3 3 Oct-Dec 23 18 1.2 20 21 -0.1 14 11 Jan-Dec 23 17 11.9 16 24 4.2 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
50 Technical insight
East Japan Railway [9020] (¥5,220) • The stock has formed a long-term triple bottom comprising the lows of ¥4,850 in November 2003, ¥4,710 in March
2009, and ¥4,790 in November 2010.
• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has recently shown signs of bottoming. We would expect a clearer turnaround in trend if the share price were to regain the November 2009 low of ¥5,550 or break through medium-term resistance running through highs of November 2007, August 2008, and April 2010.
• Once resistance is broken, we expect the stock to test the April 2010 high of ¥6,750, which is almost equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April 2007 high of ¥10,100 and the March 2009 low of ¥4,710.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0500
1,0001,5002,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
6,750(10/4/7)
10,100(07/4/16)
9,420(06/4/7) 8,970
(06/7/11)
6,290(04/8/5)
9,760(07/11/5)
8,800(08/8/5)
7,820(08/11/18)
6,530(09/9/24)
4,790(10/11/17)
4,710(09/3/12)
7,390(06/6/14)
5,290(05/4/18)
4,850(03/11/7)
7,810(06/12/5)
8,520(07/8/14)
7,420(08/3/17)
6,000(08/10/10) 5,550
(09/11/2)
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
Fibonacci retracement07/4/16→09/3/12
76.4%
50.0%
38.2%
61.8%
23.6%
C
(yy/m/d)
1
B
A
2
-8-4048
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
6080
100120
140
Relative price vs TOPIX
-1
0
1
2
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 51
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 5,220 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 15.0 Prev mo-end 5,000 4.4 P/B (x) 1.13
(¥) Prev yr-end 5,870 -11.1 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.5 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.10 YTD high 6,750 -22.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.65 (High→ latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 4,790 9.0 RSI (25) 60.8 36.3 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 41.7 Historical high 10,100 -48.3 Stoch-fast (13,9) 79.7 19.3 (High→ latest) Stoch-slow (3) 75.6 15.1
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.78 Ratio (x)5-day 5,124 1.9 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.32 2.41 25-day 4,997 4.5 up I II III75-day 5,160 1.2 down High 100% 10,100 10,100 200-day 5,715 -8.7 down 76.4% 8,828 8,634 5-wk 5,038 3.6 up 61.8% 8,041 7,728 13-wk 5,049 3.4 down 50.0% 7,405 6,995 26-wk 5,375 -2.9 down 38.2% 6,769 6,262 52-wk 5,752 -9.3 down 23.6% 5,982 5,356 12-mo 5,670 -7.9 down Low 0.0% 4,710 3,890 24-mo 5,749 -9.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 7,421 -29.7 down 5,280 6,193 7,725 120-mo 6,662 -21.6 down 5,035 6,075 7,695
Closingprice
2,088
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/7)
(10/11/17)
(07/4/16)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
050
100150200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
6,070(7/9)
5,650(9/3)
5,350(8/24)
4,790(11/17)
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
6,750(10/4)
8,800(08/8)
10,100(07/4)9,420
(06/4)
6,290(04/8)
7,420(01/8)
7,680(99/4)
6,030(96/6)
5,330(94/8)
6,140(93/10)
4,790(10/11)
4,710(09/3)
5,290(05/4)
4,850(03/11)
5,100(02/2)
4,300(00/2)
4,650(97/1)
4,070(95/2)3,890
(93/11)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
III
9,000
6,000
5,0004,500
4,000
3,500
7,000
8,000
10,00011,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Nov 1993)
10,100(07/4)
7,680(99/4)
6,140(93/10)
4,710(09/3)
4,850(03/11)4,300
(00/2)3,890(93/11)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
5,000
3,500
7,000
6,000
4,500
8,000
4,000
10,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 8 9 -0.5 8 9 -0.3 4 6 Feb 8 9 -0.5 9 8 0.3 0 4 Mar 10 7 1.2 8 9 -0.1 0 1 Apr 13 4 3.3 9 8 1.1 4 1 May 8 9 0.1 9 8 1.0 0 0 Jun 11 6 1.0 9 8 0.3 1 0 Jul 6 11 -1.5 9 8 -0.4 0 0 Aug 11 6 0.8 11 6 2.3 3 0 Sep 10 7 0.5 10 7 2.0 1 0 Oct 5 12 -1.6 10 7 1.1 1 1 Nov 10 8 -0.5 11 7 -0.1 0 4 Dec 11 7 -0.2 8 10 -1.1 4 1 Jan-Mar 10 7 0.2 9 8 -0.4 4 11 Apr-Jun 13 4 4.4 9 8 2.3 5 1 Jul-Sep 7 10 -0.4 10 7 3.8 4 0 Oct-Dec 9 8 -1.1 8 9 0.7 5 6 Jan-Dec 9 8 2.6 10 7 7.4 18 18
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
52 Technical insight
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432] (¥3,815) • Wave formation suggests that a downward wave (C) bottomed with the March 2009 low of ¥3,390, but at present
we see no signs of a clear shift toward an uptrend. Recent share price momentum has also been poor, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross.
• We think a more concerted move toward a bottom would become evident if the share price were to clearly break above the medium-term resistance line running through the highs of February 2007 and August 2008.
• Once resistance is broken, we see the key targets as the September 2009 high of ¥4,370 and ¥4,690, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥6,800 to the March 2009 low of ¥3,390.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
6,800(07/2/13)
5,940(05/11/10)
6,340(04/4/8)
5,530(03/7/8)
5,630(07/12/27)
5,810(08/8/4)
5,040(08/12/22)
4,370(09/9/10)
4,075(10/1/15)
3,945(10/11/10)
3,940(03/2/3)
4,440(03/11/10) 4,180
(04/9/28) 4,190
(05/2/4)
4,980(06/4/16) 4,810
(07/8/17)
4,070(08/3/17)
3,710(08/10/28)
3,390(09/3/12)
3,590(09/11/10)
3,580(10/6/10)
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/2/13→09/3/12
38.2%
B
(yy/m/d)C (C)
-10-5
05
10(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
406080
100120140
Relative price vs TOPIX
-20
24
6
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 53
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,815 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 11.1 Prev mo-end 3,790 0.7 P/B (x) 0.69
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,650 4.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 6.3 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 3.14 YTD high 4,075 -6.4 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.51 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,580 6.6 RSI (25) 60.5 55.2 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 41.7 Historical high 31,176 -87.8 Stoch-fast (13,9) 47.1 52.8 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 47.3 50.3
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.50 Ratio (x)5-day 3,791 0.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.20 2.48 25-day 3,791 0.6 up I II III75-day 3,728 2.3 up High 100% 6,800 19,400 31,176 200-day 3,761 1.4 down 76.4% 5,995 15,622 24,619 5-wk 3,827 -0.3 up 61.8% 5,497 13,284 20,562 13-wk 3,754 1.6 up 50.0% 5,095 11,395 17,283 26-wk 3,714 2.7 up 38.2% 4,693 9,506 14,004 52-wk 3,776 1.0 up 23.6% 4,195 7,168 9,948 12-mo 3,741 2.0 up Low 0.0% 3,390 3,390 3,390 24-mo 3,842 -0.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,732 -19.4 down 3,730 3,975 5,255 120-mo 4,944 -22.8 down 3,695 3,796 5,008
Closingprice
5,527
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/15)
(10/6/10)
(87/4/22)
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
3,945(11/10)
3,860(9/21)
3,580(7/30)
3,605(10/28)
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
31,176(87/4)
10,686(93/4) 9,392
(95/9)
12,800(98/7)
19,400(99/11)
5,960(02/6)
6,340(04/4)
6,800(07/2) 5,810
(08/8)
3,580(10/6)
15,686(87/2)
7,059(90/10)
4,441(92/8)
6,657(95/2)
8,190(98/10)
3,750(02/2)
3,930(02/9)
4,180(04/9)
4,070(08/3) 3,390
(09/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(B)
B
(A)A
I
II
III
4,000
20,000
15,000
10,0008,000
5,000
3,000
25,00030,000
(C)C
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Mar 1987)
31,176(87/4)
19,400(99/11)
6,800(07/2)
3,750(02/2)
4,441(92/8) 3,390
(09/3)1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
10,000
3,000
30,000
20,000
5,000
8,000
4,000
15,000
25,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 8 15 -1.0 9 14 -1.0 6 3 Feb 12 11 -0.2 13 10 -0.1 2 6 Mar 13 11 2.6 13 11 1.4 1 3 Apr 12 12 0.0 6 18 -2.3 3 0 May 8 16 0.4 8 16 0.3 2 0 Jun 12 12 -0.5 15 9 0.1 1 1 Jul 11 13 1.3 14 10 1.6 2 0 Aug 10 14 -2.3 11 13 -1.3 2 1 Sep 7 17 -3.0 9 15 -1.2 1 1 Oct 9 15 -0.4 13 11 0.9 1 4 Nov 12 12 -0.7 13 11 -0.0 2 2 Dec 12 12 -0.2 8 16 -1.0 1 3 Jan-Mar 10 13 1.7 12 11 0.6 9 12 Apr-Jun 9 15 -0.1 11 13 -1.9 6 1 Jul-Sep 11 13 -4.0 13 11 -1.1 5 2 Oct-Dec 12 12 -1.6 12 12 -0.0 4 9 Jan-Dec 10 13 -2.7 12 11 -1.2 24 24
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
54 Technical insight
KDDI [9433] (¥487,000) • Wave formation indicates that the decline in the share price corresponding to downward wave (C) likely ended with
the most recent October 2010 low of ¥387,500. We think the switch to an uptrend will become clearer once resistance running through highs of September 2009, January 2010, and November 2010 is broken.
• Share price momentum has been firm of late, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) turning upward and returning to positive territory for the first time in around 18 months.
• Once resistance is broken, we see key targets as the September high of ¥575,000 and ¥648,000, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥1,070,000 to the October 2010 low of ¥387,500.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0500
1,0001,5002,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
496.5(10/11/26)
652(08/12/9)
732(08/5/30)
947(07/10/15)
1,070(07/5/16)
675(03/10/14)
672(04/5/6)
707(05/11/7)
575(09/9/14)
553.0(10/1/15)
387.5(10/10/4)
419(09/3/18)
480(08/10/10)
567(08/3/18)
753(07/8/7)
339(03/3/12)
519(03/11/11) 479
(05/4/28)
560(06/3/7)
445(09/11/11)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥ '000)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement07/5/16→10/10/4
23.6%
(B)
(yy/m/d)(C)
-8-4048
12(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
50
100
150
200Relative price vs TOPIX
-20-10
0102030
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
('000 shs)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 55
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 487.0 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 9.1 Prev mo-end 478.5 1.8 P/B (x) 1.03
(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 493.0 -1.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.3 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.66 YTD high 553.0 -11.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.64 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 387.5 25.7 RSI (25) 68.7 61.0 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 41.7 75.0 Historical high 1,560 -68.8 Stoch-fast (13,9) 61.8 83.8 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 66.4 76.5
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 2.06 Ratio (x)5-day 483.7 0.7 up Short margin (thou shs) 8.53 0.24 25-day 476.3 2.2 up I II III75-day 434.4 12.1 up High 100% 1,070 1,070 1,560 200-day 442.5 10.0 down 76.4% 909 865 1,240 5-wk 486.2 0.2 up 61.8% 809 739 1,042 13-wk 443.3 9.9 up 50.0% 729 637 882 26-wk 432.8 12.5 up 38.2% 648 534 721 52-wk 452.2 7.7 up 23.6% 549 408 523 12-mo 445.9 9.2 down Low 0.0% 388 203 203 24-mo 472.2 3.1 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 636.7 -23.5 down 418 491 775 120-mo 558.8 -12.9 down 416 459 691
2,184
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/15)
(10/10/4)
(99/11/12)
Closingprice
0
100
200
300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
450.0(7/14)
496.5(11/26)
387.5(10/4)
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥ '000)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
575(09/9)
1,070(07/5)
560(98/7)
675(03/10)
492(02/6)
1,560(99/11)
915(97/6)
968(96/6)
1,060(94/8)
387.5(10/10)
479(05/4)
297(02/11)
203(02/2)
287(98/10)
685(97/2)
279(97/12)
555(95/5)
441(93/11)
419(09/3)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥ '000)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(B)
(A)
I
II
III
200
1,000
800
600500
400
300
1,200
1,4001,600
(C)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Oct 1993)
1,070(07/5)
1,560(99/11)
1,060(94/8)
387.5(10/10)
203(02/2)
279(97/12)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥ '000)
(CY)
800
200
1,2001,000
500
1,400
300
1,600up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lows
Jan 6 11 -0.9 7 10 -0.9 5 2 Feb 4 13 -4.0 6 11 -3.2 0 1 Mar 9 8 2.5 9 8 0.9 0 5 Apr 12 5 6.6 10 7 4.3 0 1 May 12 5 4.3 12 5 5.0 2 1 Jun 12 5 4.1 9 8 3.2 3 0 Jul 6 11 -2.8 6 11 -2.1 1 0 Aug 9 8 -2.3 10 7 -1.3 2 0 Sep 5 12 -2.2 6 11 -0.9 0 0 Oct 9 9 -0.4 10 8 1.9 3 2 Nov 7 11 1.6 10 8 1.9 2 4 Dec 11 7 0.9 8 10 -0.2 0 2 Jan-Mar 6 11 -1.9 6 11 -2.8 5 8 Apr-Jun 13 4 14.6 11 6 12.0 5 2 Jul-Sep 6 11 -6.6 8 9 -4.3 3 0 Oct-Dec 9 9 3.0 10 8 4.1 5 8 Jan-Dec 8 9 13.8 10 7 10.3 18 18
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
56 Technical insight
NTT Docomo [9437 (¥137,600) • Wave formation suggests that a downward wave (C) bottomed with the November 2009 low of ¥127,500, but at
present we see no signs of a clear shift toward an uptrend. Recent share price momentum has also been weak, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross.
• The share price has already broken through medium-term resistance running through highs of August 2003 and February 2007, and we think it needs to recover the April 2010 high of ¥154,400 to strengthen its momentum for a bottoming.
• Once this high is regained, we see the stock attempting a move toward ¥166,300–178,300, a 38.2–50% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥229,000 to the November 2009 low of ¥127,500.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
149.0(10/9/16)
154.4(10/4/20)
320(03/8/22)
216(05/10/5)
229(07/2/27)
191(07/12/25) 180.3
(09/1/5)
150.4(09/9/10)
133.2(10/10/21)
132.0(10/6/9)
201(03/3/11)
159(05/4/28)
162(06/6/15) 149
(07/10/25) 136.0(08/10/10)
129.5(09/3/12)
127.5(09/11/9)
100
150
200
250
300
350
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥ '000)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
0.0%
23.6%
Fibonacci retracement03/8/22→09/11/9
(B)
(C)(yy/m/d)
-10-505
1015
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
20
60
100
140Relative price vs TOPIX
-1000
100200300400
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
('000 shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 57
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 137.6 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 12.1 Prev mo-end 135.8 1.3 P/B (x) 1.25
(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 129.6 6.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 10.3 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 3.77 YTD high 154.4 -10.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.49 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 129.6 6.2 RSI (25) 55.4 51.6 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 33.3 33.3 Historical high 914.0 -84.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 37.2 17.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 35.4 17.7
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 33.82 Ratio (x)5-day 136.4 0.9 up Short margin (thou shs) 11.84 2.86 25-day 136.4 0.9 up I II II I75-day 139.2 -1.2 down High 100% 320.0 914.0 229.0 200-day 139.6 -1.4 down 76.4% 274.6 728.4 205.0 5-wk 137.1 0.4 up 61.8% 246.5 613.6 190.2 13-wk 138.0 -0.3 down 50.0% 223.8 520.8 178.3 26-wk 138.6 -0.7 up 38.2% 201.0 427.9 166.3 52-wk 138.8 -0.8 up 23.6% 172.9 313.1 151.5 12-mo 138.2 -0.5 up Low 0.0% 127.5 127.5 127.5 24-mo 139.3 -1.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 161.5 -14.8 down 141.1 142.6 182.5 120-mo 209.8 -34.4 down 137.2 141.0 170.0
6,026
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/4/20)
(10/1/5)
(00/2/28)
Closingprice
050
100150200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
140.1(11/10)
149.0(9/16)
134.8(7/22) 133.2
(10/21)
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥ '000)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
180.3(09/1)
914(00/2)
580(01/5)
373(02/4) 320
(03/8)
216(05/10)
229(07/2)
127.5(09/11)
148(08/3)
162(98/10)
228(01/9) 201
(02/9)159
(05/4)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥ '000)
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(B)
(A)
(C)
I
II
III
120
500
400
300
200
150
700
1,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Nov 1998)
914(00/2)
162(98/10) 127.5
(09/11)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥ '000)
(CY)
400
150
700
500
300
1,000
200
120
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 5 7 -1.3 5 7 -0.0 4 2 Feb 3 9 0.5 4 8 0.7 2 0 Mar 8 4 3.3 7 5 0.8 0 1 Apr 6 6 0.8 4 8 -1.6 2 1 May 7 5 -2.0 3 9 -0.9 1 0 Jun 4 8 -1.1 2 10 -2.3 0 1 Jul 5 7 -1.5 8 4 -0.0 0 1 Aug 9 3 1.8 8 4 2.3 1 0 Sep 6 6 0.2 7 5 1.7 0 2 Oct 5 7 -0.2 5 7 2.2 1 3 Nov 7 6 3.7 8 5 3.0 0 1 Dec 7 6 -0.7 6 7 -2.2 2 1 Jan-Mar 7 5 2.3 7 5 1.1 6 3 Apr-Jun 4 8 -2.1 4 8 -4.6 3 2 Jul-Sep 8 4 0.8 8 4 4.0 1 3 Oct-Dec 6 6 3.5 4 8 3.8 3 5 Jan-Dec 4 8 15.3 5 7 8.4 13 13
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
58 Technical insight
Tokyo Electric Power [9501] (¥1,984) • Wave formation suggests that the 28 October low of ¥1,853 marked the bottom for downward subwave 5 of
downward wave (C). The fall in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has also begun to ease of late.
• However, with the diagonal triangle price decline since February 2007 remaining intact, we think the stock is likely to continue searching for a firm bottom with a near-term rebound target of the upper resistance line running through February 2007 and September 2010 highs.
• A sudden accumulation of long margin positions could weigh on any rebound. Near term, the share price is unlikely to regain the 3 September 2010 high of ¥2,495 prior to its sharp fall.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
2,495(10/9/3)
2,504(10/1/25)
2,540(09/6/22)
3,080(08/11/25)
3,280(08/9/4)
3,230(06/3/2)
2,565(04/8/2)
2,565(03/9/19)
4,530(07/2/7)
3,220(07/12/7)
1,853(10/10/28)
2,230(10/5/27) 2,085
(09/11/10)
2,300(09/4/21)
2,215(08/10/10)
2,480(08/5/29)
2,830(06/6/14)
2,330(04/10/13) 2,200
(03/11/18)
2,680(07/11/13)
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
61.8%
Fibonacci retracement07/2/7→10/10/28
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
76.4%
(B)
(C)(yy/m/d)
2
5
1
4
3
-10-505
1015
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
6080
100120140160
Relative price vs TOPIX
-5
0
5
10
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 59
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 1,984 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 39.9 Prev mo-end 1,950 1.7 P/B (x) 1.29
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,335 -15.0 ROE (forecast) (%) 3.2 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 3.02 YTD high 2,504 -20.8 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.24 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,853 7.1 RSI (25) 72.5 28.7 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 83.3 58.3 Historical high 9,144 -78.3 Stoch-fast (13,9) 84.1 10.4 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 79.9 8.5
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.61 Ratio (x)5-day 1,970 0.7 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.97 7.83 25-day 1,926 3.0 up I II III75-day 2,111 -6.0 down High 100% 4,530 9,144 200-day 2,296 -13.6 down 76.4% 3,898 7,423 5-wk 1,938 2.4 up 61.8% 3,507 6,359 13-wk 2,003 -0.9 down 50.0% 3,192 5,498 26-wk 2,213 -10.4 down 38.2% 2,876 4,638 52-wk 2,308 -14.0 down 23.6% 2,485 3,574 12-mo 2,259 -12.2 down Low 0.0% 1,853 1,853 24-mo 2,352 -15.6 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,848 -30.3 down 2,174 2,355 3,373 120-mo 2,699 -26.5 down 2,001 2,313 3,060
3,188
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/25)
(10/10/28)
(87/4/22)
Closingprice
0500
1,0001,5002,000
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,495(9/3)
1,853(10/28)
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2,504(10/1)
3,280(08/9)
9,144(87/4)
7,636(89/2)
4,218(91/2)
4,406(93/4)
2,880(96/5)
3,000(98/10)
3,110(99/11)
3,430(01/7)
4,530(07/2)
1,853(10/10)
2,085(09/11)
2,480(08/5)
2,178(92/8)
2,485(90/10)
4,638(88/1)
2,485(95/1)
2,080(97/4)
2,020(99/10)
2,005(02/11)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
(B)(B)
(A)
(5)
(C)
I
II6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
2,500
3,500
8,000
10,000
(X)
(A)(C)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
1,000(73/1)
1,042(78/8)
9,144(87/4)
4,406(93/4) 3,430
(01/7)
4,530(07/2)
1,853(10/10)
2,178(92/8)
2,005(02/11)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
500
4,000
2,000
6,0008,000
3,000
10,000
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 17 23 -0.4 13 27 -1.7 9 12 Feb 25 16 1.8 20 21 1.2 4 4 Mar 16 25 -0.9 12 29 -2.8 2 1 Apr 20 21 -0.1 12 29 -1.3 2 2 May 24 17 1.6 21 20 1.4 1 1 Jun 23 18 -0.2 19 22 -0.7 1 1 Jul 19 22 0.5 19 22 0.5 1 1 Aug 26 15 0.7 22 19 1.3 2 3 Sep 17 24 -1.3 18 23 0.0 5 0 Oct 21 20 0.3 19 22 1.5 2 8 Nov 23 18 1.2 24 17 1.0 4 4 Dec 29 12 4.0 26 15 2.5 8 4 Jan-Mar 23 17 0.5 11 29 -3.3 15 17 Apr-Jun 25 16 1.2 16 25 -0.7 4 4 Jul-Sep 17 24 0.4 20 21 2.1 8 4 Oct-Dec 27 14 5.5 25 16 4.9 14 16 Jan-Dec 24 16 8.8 14 26 3.1 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
60 Technical insight
Kansai Electric Power [9503] (¥2,050) • The share price appears to have hit a near-term bottom with the 15 October low of ¥1,919, but the TOPIX-relative
MACD (12–26 week) is back in negative territory, pointing to lackluster share price momentum of late.
• We think the stock is likely to continue searching for a firm bottom with an upside target of the medium-term resistance line running through highs of December 2007, September 2008, December 2008, and September 2010.
• In the medium term, we see the stock making an attempt at the December 2008 high of ¥2,675, almost a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥3,920 to the October 2008 low of ¥1,891, once it recovers the September high of ¥2,203.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
500
1,000
1,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
2,203(10/9/7)
2,225(09/7/13)2,030
(03/5/23)
2,675(08/12/4)
2,755(08/9/4)
2,925(07/12/6)
3,920(07/2/7)
2,880(06/5/9)
2,035(04/3/10)
1,919(10/10/15)
1,943(09/11/10)
2,400(06/6/14)
1,981(09/4/27)
2,455(07/10/22)
2,205(08/6/23)
1,891(08/10/10)1,802
(03/11/18)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Start ofmedium-term wave
(00/3/22)
Fibonacci retracement07/2/7→08/10/10
(1)
(2)
(yy/m/d)
-10-505
1015
(%)
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relativ e price basis)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
60
100
140
180Relative price vs TOPIX
-2
-1
0
1
2
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 61
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 2,050 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 18.7 Prev mo-end 2,013 1.8 P/B (x) 1.07
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,100 -2.4 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.8 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.92 YTD high 2,203 -6.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.20 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,919 6.8 RSI (25) 54.7 42.1 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 66.7 41.7 Historical high 5,572 -63.2 Stoch-fast (13,9) 43.0 33.6 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 39.4 30.2
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.35 Ratio (x)5-day 2,028 1.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.30 0.27 25-day 2,032 0.9 up I II III75-day 2,063 -0.7 down High 100% 3,920 3,920 5,572 200-day 2,096 -2.2 down 76.4% 3,441 3,339 4,601 5-wk 2,034 0.8 up 61.8% 3,145 2,980 4,000 13-wk 2,034 0.8 down 50.0% 2,906 2,689 3,515 26-wk 2,085 -1.7 down 38.2% 2,666 2,398 3,029 52-wk 2,095 -2.1 down 23.6% 2,370 2,039 2,429 12-mons 2,085 -1.7 down Low 0.0% 1,891 1,458 1,458 24-mons 2,119 -3.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mons 2,493 -17.8 down 2,061 2,104 2,906 120-mons 2,239 -8.4 up 2,016 2,084 2,614
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/9/7)
(10/10/15)
(89/2/3)
Closingprice
1,924
↑
0
50
100
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
2,203(9/7)
2,077(11/5)
1,919(10/15)
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,531(87/2)
5,569(89/2)
3,455(93/4)
2,580(96/5)
2,610(98/10)
2,180(01/7)
3,920(07/2)
1,919(10/10)
1,891(08/10)
1,641(02/11)1,458
(00/3)
2,000(97/10)
2,020(95/1)
2,000(92/8)
1,950(90/10)
2,348(88/1)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
I
(C)
(1)(B)
(A)
(5)
(2)
IIIII
5,000
4,000
3,000
1,500
2,500
2,000
6,000
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
5,569(89/2) 3,920
(07/2)
1,891(08/10)1,458
(00/3)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(¥)
(CY)
1,000
500
4,000
2,000
6,000
3,000
1,500
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 0.1 16 24 -1.2 8 13 Feb 24 17 1.1 20 21 0.6 5 2 Mar 15 26 -1.3 14 27 -3.2 2 2 Apr 19 22 0.0 10 31 -1.2 3 3 May 24 17 1.6 21 20 1.4 2 2 Jun 30 11 0.9 21 20 0.5 2 1 Jul 20 21 0.8 22 19 0.8 2 1 Aug 19 22 -0.4 20 21 0.3 1 2 Sep 16 25 -1.5 17 24 -0.2 3 1 Oct 20 21 0.8 20 21 1.9 3 7 Nov 23 18 0.9 19 22 0.8 1 3 Dec 29 12 3.9 21 20 2.3 9 4 Jan-Mar 20 20 -0.2 13 27 -3.8 15 17 Apr-Jun 25 16 2.4 19 22 0.7 7 6 Jul-Sep 16 25 -1.0 21 20 0.9 6 4 Oct-Dec 29 12 5.6 23 18 5.1 13 14 Jan-Dec 23 17 7.3 19 21 2.7 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
62 Technical insight
Softbank [9984] (¥3,000) • Wave formation indicates that the stock is currently in a rally phase corresponding to upward wave 5. Recent gains
have taken the share price to ¥2,928, a 50% retracement of the decline from the December 2005 high of ¥5,220 to the October 2008 low of ¥636, and if the uptrend continues we think the stock will test ¥3,470, a 61.8% retracement of the same decline.
• That said, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looks close to hitting a ceiling, suggesting that the share price may have reached a near-term peak with the 8 December high of ¥3,085.
• The stock may face a temporary near-term correction if the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) shows further evidence of peaking. We expect the stock to trend in a range of ¥2,500–3,000 for now.
1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative tradingvalue for
different ranges
0
5000
10000
15000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
(¥)
3,085(10/12/8)
2,485(10/1/21)
5,220(05/12/30)
1,810(04/10/12)
1,920(04/4/5)
2,457(03/10/17)
3,190(07/3/22) 2,885
(07/11/2)
2,060(08/8/11)
1,672(08/12/24)
1,997(10/5/7)
1,894(06/7/19)
1,230(05/5/18)
420(03/4/14)
923(03/12/22)
1,103(04/5/17)
1,951(07/9/18)
1,653(08/3/18)
636(08/10/28)
1,103(09/2/25)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
100%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
76.4%
Fibonacci retracement05/12/30→08/10/28
(yy/m/d)
3
4
5
1
2
(%)
-20-10
0102030
Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9)(relat iv e price basis)
(%)
020406080
100RSI (25-day)
0100200300400500600700
Relative price vs TOPIX
(mn shs)
-60-30
0306090
120
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30
Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)
(yy/m/d)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 63
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/12/8 3,000 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 20.3 Prev mo-end 2,900 3.4 P/B (x) 6.29
(¥) Prev yr-end 2,170 38.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 31.0 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.16 YTD high 3,085 -2.8 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.84 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,997 50.2 RSI (25) 78.3 64.3 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 33.3 66.7 Historical high 22,000 -86.4 Stoch-fast (13,9) 82.1 83.8 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 84.6 83.5
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.55 Ratio (x)5-day 3,014 -0.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 7.58 1.00 25-day 2,876 4.3 up I II III75-day 2,688 11.6 up High 100% 5,220 5,220 22,000 200-day 2,459 22.0 up 76.4% 4,138 4,053 16,873 5-wk 2,941 2.0 up 61.8% 3,469 3,331 13,701 13-wk 2,792 7.5 up 50.0% 2,928 2,748 11,138 26-wk 2,632 14.0 up 38.2% 2,387 2,164 8,574 52-wk 2,437 23.1 up 23.6% 1,718 1,443 5,403 12-mons 2,484 20.8 up Low 0.0% 636 276 276 24-mons 2,139 40.3 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mons 2,270 32.2 down 2,633 2,245 2,928 120-mons 1,770 69.5 up 2,588 2,074 1,652
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/12/8)
(10/5/7)
(00/2/15)
Closingprice
32,476
↑
0200
400600
800
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
(¥)3,085(12/8)
2,800(10/1)
2,629(7/28)
2,376(8/25)
2,507(11/2)
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10
25-day mov avg
75-day mov avg200-day mov avg
(y y /m/d)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
01000020000300004000050000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)
5,220(05/12)
2,457(03/10)
22,000(00/2)
576(94/10)
1367(96/4)
3,190(07/3)
1,894(06/7)
1,230(05/5)
276(02/11)186
(97/11)
222(95/2)
636(08/10)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg1,000
6,000
20,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
500
200
15,000
30,000
I II
III
(CY)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Aug 1994)
(¥)
5,220(05/12)
22,000(00/2)
1,367(96/4)
636(08/10)
276(02/11)186
(97/11)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1,000
10,000
5,000
2,000
500
30,000
200
20,000
(CY)
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 10 6 7.7 9 7 8.7 2 4 Feb 9 7 0.9 9 7 1.4 3 2 Mar 8 8 5.3 8 8 3.0 2 0 Apr 7 9 -0.4 6 10 -2.8 2 0 May 7 9 -3.2 8 8 -2.1 0 2 Jun 8 8 7.8 8 8 6.5 0 0 Jul 8 8 1.2 8 8 1.3 0 2 Aug 7 10 4.7 7 10 5.4 1 0 Sep 9 8 3.8 11 6 4.9 0 1 Oct 8 9 -2.0 8 9 -0.1 3 1 Nov 8 9 7.8 10 7 6.7 1 2 Dec 7 10 3.6 8 9 2.7 3 3 Jan-Mar 10 6 12.8 9 7 11.3 7 6 Apr-Jun 6 10 6.0 6 10 3.0 2 2 Jul-Sep 8 8 11.5 8 8 11.2 1 3 Oct-Dec 9 8 11.0 8 9 10.1 7 6 Jan-Dec 8 8 104.4 10 6 69.5 17 17
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
64 Technical insight
Sample • Technical comments
•
• 1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)
Cumulative trading value for
dif ferent ranges
02,0004,0006,0008,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28
-6-30
36
(%)Weekly M AC D (12, 26, 9)(relative price bas is)
020406080
100(%)
RSI (25-day)
708090
100110120130
Relative price vs TOPIX
-10-505
1015
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28
(mn shs)
(yy/m/d)
Lo ng margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Sho rt margin bal (green bar, minus )
4 ,23 5(10/ 1/ 21)
4 ,19 0(09 /8 /10)
5,710(08 /6 /6 )
3 ,92 0(0 3/ 9/ 16 )
4,52 0(04 /7/ 14 )
6 ,950(0 6/ 4/ 21)
8,3 50(07/ 2/ 27) 7,88 0
(07/ 7/4 )
3,2 90(0 9/ 11/2 7)
2,58 5(0 8/ 12 /8 )
4 ,80 0(0 8/ 4/ 14 )
2,4 55(0 3/ 4/ 14 )
3,78 0(0 4/ 12 /1)
3,79 0(05/ 4/ 21)
5,43 0(06 /6 /14)
3,130(03 /10/ 31)
7,010(0 7/5/ 11)
6,130(07/ 8/ 17)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28
(¥)
13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg
0.0 %
38 .2%
61.8%
10 0%
76.4 %
50.0 %
23 .6%
Fibonacci retracement07/2/27→08/12/8
(5)
(4) (A)
(B)
(yy/m/d)
A
B
(C)
( Note8)
(Note 9)
( Note5)
(Note 1)
(Note 4)
( Note2)( Note3)
( Note6)
( Note7)
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 65
Note: (1) Weekly candlestick charts are on an intraday basis. Vertical bars along the bottom of the chart indicate weekly cumulative trading value. (2) Wave count in analysis is based on the Elliott wave principle. The Elliott wave principle says market prices move in cycles of eight waves consisting of a five-wave uptrend (waves 1-2-3-4-5) and a three-wave downtrend (waves A-B-C). In a bull market, waves 1, 3, and 5 of the five-wave uptrend are impulse waves (stock rallies), while waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves (stock declines) in reaction to the previous waves; similarly, waves A and C of the three-wave downtrend are impulse waves (stock declines), while wave B is a corrective wave (stock rally) in reaction to the previous wave. Each wave has its own general characteristics:
Wave 1 is the first impulse wave of an uptrend. In the process of price consolidation, this wave is often seen as part of a rebound from a relatively low level. Of the five waves, this one is normally the shortest, but in rare cases, such as when prices form a major bottom, the wave can be very sharp.
Wave 2 is a corrective wave in reaction to wave 1 and often retraces most if not all of wave 1.
Wave 3 is the second impulse wave of the uptrend. It is normally the longest and sharpest wave. It exceeds the high of wave 1 and is marked by the highest trading volume. Wave 3 is never the shortest of the five waves and is the likeliest to include an extension.
Wave 4 is a corrective wave in reaction to wave 3 and the low always exceeds the high of wave 1. Wave 4 and wave 2 often take alternate forms (alternation rule).
Wave 5 is the third and final impulse wave of the uptrend; it normally is not as sharp an upward movement as wave 3. Volume begins to weaken during this wave but often picks up when prices near a peak. Many oscillator indicators may run counter to the direction of price movements (divergence phenomenon), warning of an impending peak.
Wave A is the first impulse wave of a downtrend. It is often mistakenly viewed as a temporary pullback from an uptrend.
Wave B is a corrective wave in reaction to wave A that often exhibits little trading volume. In some cases, the correction tests, or even exceeds, highs achieved before the downtrend began.
Wave C is the second and final impulse wave of the downtrend. When prices bottom during this wave, volume often increases substantially, as in a selling climax.
(The corrective downtrend with waves A-B-C is basically a two-leg correction, but in extended corrections, there can be double zigzag patterns (waves A1-B1-C1-X-A2-B2-C2) and triple zigzag patterns (waves A1-B1-C1-X-A2-B2-C2-X’-A3-B3-C3).)
(3) Target Fibonacci retracement levels in Exhibit 2 (price data and major chart points) are based on the golden ratio. The golden ratio is the relationship between 0.618 and 0.382 proposed by Italian mathematician Fibonacci. The ratio is observed in many places in nature and is used in markets to measure rallies and calculate resistance lines. Note that 0.236 is 0.618 x 0.382. (4) Horizontal bars on the side of the chart represent cumulative trading value at the corresponding share price levels during the period for which weekly candlesticks are shown. (5) The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku cloud chart) is a chart that shows key points for buying and selling stocks at a glance. It comprises five lines called tenkan-sen (conversion or turnaround line), kijun-sen (base or trigger line), senko (leading or momentum) span A, senko span B, and chiko (lagging) span. The shaded area between senko span A and senko span B shows the price resistance/support bands (the so-called “cloud”). The weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in the chart is made as follows. Tenkan-sen is the average of the high and low from the past nine weeks. Kijun-sen is the average of the high and low from the past 26 weeks. Senko span A is the average of the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen plotted 26 weeks forward. Senko span B is the average of the high and low from the past 52 weeks plotted 26 weeks forward. Chiko span is the day’s closing price plotted 26 weeks (including that day) in the past.
In general, (1) when the tenkan-sen exceeds the kijun-sen it signals a buy, and when it falls below the kijun-sen it signals a sell, (2) when the kijun-sen inflects up it signals a buy, and when it inflects down it signals a sell, and (3) when the share price is higher than the area between senko span A and senko span B (the cloud), the cloud represents a support band, and when it is lower, the cloud represents a resistance band. When the resistance band is thick, it is normally difficult to breach and when it is thin, it is easy to breach. Points where senko span A and senko span B intersect are viewed as transition days and are often turning points in the market. In the chart, tenkan-sen, kijun-sen, and chiko span are not displayed in the interest of making the chart easier to view. Senkospan A and senko span B are shown, with the shaded area representing the cloud.
(6) Relative price vs TOPIX is on a daily basis. The time-series is indexed with the first data point on the graph equal to 100. (7) The RSI, or relative strength index, indicates the magnitude of increases over a given period in the past (we use a 25-day period in the chart) as a percentage of all price movements in that period, and is calculated as follows: RSI (%) = (absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) / [(absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) + (absolute value of total magnitude of declines over period A)] x 100. The index ranges from 0% to 100%; when it is above 70% (or above 80%) the stock is said to be overbought, and when it falls below 30% (or below 20%) the stock is considered oversold. Divergence between the directions of the share price and the RSI is said to signal a turning point. (8) MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is the difference between 12-week and 26-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). In this report, MACD values are calculated from relative share prices and are not simple differences but divergence ratios. The nine-week EMA is called the signal line and the difference between MACD and the signal line is called a histogram (displayed at 3x to make the chart more visible). Trend analysis of MACD is done with attention to the direction, divergence, and interaction of the two EMAs. In general, when the leading MACD (thick line) breaks through the lagging signal line (thin line) from the bottom it signals a buy, and when the thick line breaks through the thin line from the top it signals a sell. The positioning in relation to the horizontal line at zero is also key. If both lines remain above zero after MACD breaks through the signal line from the bottom (signaling a buy), the veracity of the signal is greater and the magnitude of the trend can be measured by the formation. MACD can also be used to follow trends, with breakouts above/below a trendline indicating selling/buying points. As an oscillator (an indicator of the strength of market prices), MACD indicates a trend change when there is divergence between the share price and the MACD amid a major trend. In other words, if MACD starts falling amid an uptrend, the trend often comes to an end. MACD is useful for determining the peaks and valleys of cycles, but looking at crossovers at times other than when the indicator is peaking or bottoming is not very useful (the indicator often sends the wrong signal when used in times where the trend is not clear).
Nomura Investment Strategy
66 Technical insight
2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart
2010/6/25 3,135 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 34.9 Prev mo-end 3,280 -4.4 P/B (x) 1.04
(¥) Prev yr-end 3,880 -19.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 3.0 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.59 YTD high 4,235 -26.0 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.09 (High→latest) Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,115 0.6 RSI (25) 39.4 37.8 (Low→latest) Psych line (12) 50.0 33.3 Historical high 8,350 -62.5 Stoch-fast (13,9) 46.6 26.8 (High→latest) Stoch-slow (3) 49.5 32.1
Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 11.29 Ratio (x)5-day 3,224 -2.8 down Short margin (mn shs) 1.39 8.11 25-day 3,258 -3.8 down I II III75-day 3,499 -10.4 down High 100% 8,350 8,350 200-day 3,589 -12.7 down 76.4% 6,989 6,677 5-wk 3,247 -3.4 down 61.8% 6,148 5,642 13-wk 3,462 -9.5 down 50.0% 5,468 4,805 26-wk 3,547 -11.6 down 38.2% 4,787 3,968 52-wk 3,627 -13.6 down 23.6% 3,946 2,933 12-mo 3,598 -12.9 down Low 0.0% 2,585 1,260 24-mo 3,639 -13.8 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,239 -40.2 down 3,575 3,675 6,215 120-mo 4,442 -29.4 down 3,521 3,470 5,870
↑
↓
Fib retrace
Key moving avgs
Oscillators(10/1/21)
(10/6/25)
(07/2/27)
Closing price
10,809
Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower
(Note15)
(Note14)
(Note13)
(Note12)
(Note10)
(Note11)
(Note16)
0500
1,0001,5002,000
10/1/4 10/2/17 10/4/1 10/5/19 10/6/30 10/8/12
3,830(4/6)
4,235(1/21)
3,195(2/4)
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
10/1/4 10/2/17 10/4/1 10/5/19 10/6/30 10/8/12
(¥)
25-day mov avg75-day mov avg
200-day mov avg
(yy/m/d)
(Note:17)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4,2 35(10 /1)
8,3 50(07/ 2)6 ,950
(06 /4 )
4,520(04/ 7)
5,8 00(00 /4 )
4 ,03 0(97/ 5)
2 ,250(94 /6)
2,4 28(89 /10)
3 ,79 0(0 5/ 4)
2 ,455(03/ 4)
2 ,66 5(0 1/ 9)
2 ,530(9 8/ 10)
1,590(9 5/5)
1,2 60(9 2/3 )
2,585(0 8/12)
1,000
1,500
2,000
3,000
4,0005,0006,000
8,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg
(CY)
A
B(5)
(4)
(3)
3
4
5
2
1
(A)
(B)
I
II
(C)
(Note18)
Source: Nomura
5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)
2 ,42 8(8 9/ 10 )
5,8 00(00 /4 )
8 ,350(0 7/2 )
2,4 55(0 3/ 4)
1,2 60(9 2/ 3)
2,58 5(0 8/ 12 )
10 0
2 00
500
1,0 00
2,0 00
5,00 08,0 00
19 70 19 75 198 0 198 5 19 90 199 5 20 00 2 00 5 2 010
(¥)
(CY)
( Note19)
up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.8 19 21 -0.5 4 10 Feb 17 24 0.4 17 24 -0.2 4 3 Mar 24 17 2.8 22 19 0.8 4 4 Apr 28 13 4.9 24 17 3.6 2 5 May 20 21 0.2 17 24 -0.0 4 1 Jun 24 17 2.3 25 16 1.7 3 2 Jul 16 24 -1.1 15 25 -1.1 3 3 Aug 23 17 -1.0 16 24 -0.6 2 1 Sep 21 19 -0.3 20 20 1.0 1 2 Oct 20 20 -0.1 22 18 0.9 3 1 Nov 18 22 -0.9 21 19 -1.0 1 2 Dec 27 13 4.7 25 15 3.0 10 7 Jan-Mar 22 18 4.3 21 19 0.3 12 17 Apr-Jun 28 13 7.6 25 16 5.2 9 8 Jul-Sep 17 23 -2.6 16 24 -0.9 6 6 Oct-Dec 25 15 3.9 22 18 2.9 14 10 Jan-Dec 25 15 15.8 24 16 7.7 41 41
(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs
(Note20)
Source: Nomura
Source: Nomura
Nomura Investment Strategy
Technical insight 67
Note: (9) Long and short margin balances are the total of general and system margin balances on a stock’s representative exchange (ie, in case of stocks listed on more than one exchange, the exchange with largest transaction volume for the concerned stock). (10) Year-to-date high and low and historical high are on intraday basis. The “diff (%)” column shows latest closing price’s percent divergence from the stock’s year-to-date high and low and from its historical high. (11) An overview of key moving averages based on stock’s latest closing price. Here, “diff (%)” shows percent difference between stock’s latest closing price and each moving average. “Momentum” shows vector trend (up, down, flat) of moving averages (MAs) based on comparisons with recent data (previous day for daily MAs, previous week for weekly MAs, and previous month for monthly MAs). (12) Key stock valuations based on latest closing price. EPS and DPS estimates are Nikkei estimates for current fiscal year; BPS is actual value as of end of previous fiscal year (consolidated basis where available). (13) Oscillators are based on latest closing price. RSI is calculated on 25-day and 25-week bases. Psychological line is calculated on 12-day and 12-week bases. Stochastics-fast (STC.F) is shown on 13-, 9-day basis and 13-, 9-week basis. Stochastics-slow (STC.S) is shown on past 3-day and past 3-week bases. Calculation and special features of each oscillator are as follows: RSI (%) = (absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) / [(absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) + (absolute value of total magnitude of declines over period A)] x 100
• RSI ranges from 0% to 100%; above 70% (or above 80%) indicates overbought market, below 30% (or below 20%) indicates oversold market.
• Divergence between the directions of the share price and the RSI is said to signal a turning point. Psychological line (%) = number of days the share price has risen in period A / (number of days the share price has risen during period A + number of days the share price has fallen in period A) x 100
• Usually calculated on 12-day (or 12-week) basis. Days in which a share price does not change are counted as rises if the price rose during the previous day (week) and declines if the price fell during the previous day (week).
• Psychological line ranges from 0% to 100%; in general, above 75% (nine rises vs three declines) indicates the stock is overbought and under 25% (three rises vs nine declines) indicates the stock is oversold.
• Adding the magnitude of rises and declines to the psychological line calculation results in the RSI. Stochastics-fast (STC.F) (%) = %D line as defined below: %K line = [closing price - lowest price over period A / (highest price over period A - lowest price over period A)] x 100 %D line = [(sum of %K line numerators for certain number of past periods) / sum of %K line denominators for certain number of past periods)] x 100
• Because %K line is highly sensitive, technical analysis often uses two stochastics—a fast stochastic (STC.F) usually based on the %D line and a slow stochastic (STC.S) based on the %D line’s three-day moving average (or three-week moving average).
• Stochastic oscillators range from 0% to 100%; in general, 70% and higher (or 80% and higher) indicates the stock is overbought, 30% and lower (or 20% and lower) indicates the stock is oversold.
• When these stochastics are in the oversold zone, the STC.F rising above the STC.S is considered a buy signal. Conversely, when in the overbought zone, an STC.F falling below the STC.S is a sell signal.
• In addition, divergence in the directions of the share price and related stochastic oscillators is said to signal a turning point. (14) Margin balance data. Long and short margin balances are the total of general and system margin balances on a stock’s representative exchange (ie, in case of stocks listed on more than one exchange, the exchange with largest transaction volume for the concerned stock). Ratio (x) = margin balance ratio = long margin balance/short margin balance. (15) Fibonacci retracement targets are based on the golden ratio and other factors. They correspond to markings in the monthly candlestick charts (roman numerals I, II, III). (16) “Ichimoku chart points” shows upside and downside targets indicated by the resistance and support bands for clouds in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (daily, weekly and monthly bases). “Cloud upper” is the higher of the Ichimoku chart’s senko span A and senko span B, with the lower span representing the “cloud lower.” (17) Daily candlestick charts are on intraday basis. (18) Monthly candlestick charts are on intraday basis (logarithmic). Trading value is monthly total. (19) Yearly candlestick charts are on intraday basis (logarithmic). (20) The advances/declines chart shows the number of times the share price rose and fell in the specified time periods—monthly, quarterly, and annually—of the sample period. The “vs TOPIX” section shows performance relative to TOPIX. The “avg rtn” column shows the average percentage change in share price during the sample period. “No. of hi/lo” shows the number of times a stock reached a new year-to-date high or low price during the relevant month or quarter during the sample period.
Nomura Investment Strategy
68 Technical insight
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Any Authors named on this report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated Analyst Certification Each research analyst identified herein certifies that all of the views expressed in this report by such analyst accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities and issuers. In addition, each research analyst identified on the cover page hereof hereby certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views that he or she has expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
Important Disclosures Conflict-of-interest disclosures Important disclosures may be accessed through the following website: http://www.nomura.com/research/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx . If you have difficulty with this site or you do not have a password, please contact your Nomura Securities International, Inc. salesperson (1-877-865-5752) or email grpsupport@nomura.com for assistance. Online availability of research and additional conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Japanese Equity Research is available electronically for clients in the US on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG and THOMSON ONE ANALYTICS. For clients in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in Asia it is available on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS and BLOOMBERG. Important disclosures may be accessed through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page http://www.nomura.com/research or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email grpsupport-eu@nomura.com for technical assistance. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research report in which their names appear. Distribution of ratings (Global) Nomura Global Equity Research has 1878 companies under coverage. 48% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 41% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 37% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 54% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 13% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 16% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 September 2010. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America for ratings published from 27 October 2008 The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to price target defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. STOCKS A rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'RS-Rating Suspended', indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks (accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page: http://www.nomura.com/research);Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published from 30 October 2008 and in Japan from 6 January 2009 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Price Target - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Price Target will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%.
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A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'RS' or 'Rating Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan published prior to 6 January 2009 (and ratings in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America published prior to 27 October 2008) STOCKS A rating of '1' or 'Strong buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. A rating of '2' or 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of '3' or 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to either outperform or underperform the Benchmark by less than 5% over the next six months. A rating of '4' or 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of '5' or 'Sell', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. Stocks labeled 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in Nomura's regular research coverage. Nomura might not publish additional research reports concerning this company, and it undertakes no obligation to update the analysis, estimates, projections, conclusions or other information contained herein. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next six months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next six months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next six months. Benchmarks are as follows: Japan: TOPIX; United States: S&P 500, MSCI World Technology Hardware & Equipment; Europe, by sector - Hardware/Semiconductors: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Telecoms: FTSE W Europe Business Services; Business Services: FTSE W Europe; Auto & Components: FTSE W Europe Auto & Parts; Communications equipment: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Ecology Focus: Bloomberg World Energy Alternate Sources; Global Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published prior to 30 October 2008 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price)/Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation. A 'Strong buy' recommendation indicates that upside is more than 20%. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that upside is between 10% and 20%. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that upside or downside is less than 10%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%. A 'Sell' recommendation indicates that downside is more than 20%. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. 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