45472441 nomura-technical-insight-2010-12-15

Nomura 1

• Index could work to regain April 2010 high by spring 2011: The TOPIX Core 30

Index bottomed at its 2 November low of 435. Assuming all goes well, it could seek to regain its 12 April 2010 high of 565 through spring 2011. With wave formation suggesting that the index has moved into an upward phase corresponding to upward wave 3, we think it could aim for 680, equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the fall between the February 2007 high of 1,140 and the March 2009 low of 395, over the medium term.

• Focusing on catch-up by laggard stocks: We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we regard the three megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306], Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316], and Mizuho Financial Group [8411], Nintendo [7974], Nippon Steel [5401], Toyota Motor [7203], and Seven & i Holdings [3382] as promising candidates to outperform the TOPIX. Many of these stocks have fallen through Oct–Nov, and have considerable return reversal potential from a chart perspective.

• Some stocks at forefront of rally likely to level off over short term: Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off, including some export-oriented companies such as Honda Motor [7267] and Canon [7751], Mitsui & Co [8031], and Mitsubishi Estate [8802]. With some of these stocks peaking out or already forming a dead cross in terms of TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week), we expect a correction over the near term. We also expect star stocks for 2010 such as Komatsu [6301] and Softbank [9984] to move into a holding pattern once the rally runs its course.

• Best to stay away from defensive stocks: Although defensive stocks appear to have broadly bottomed out, we think they will continue to underperform while they remain in a holding pattern. We think investors would be well advised to continue steering clear of stocks such as Tokyo Electric Power [9501], Kansai Electric Power [9503], Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502], Astellas Pharma [4503], Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432], and NTT Docomo [9437].

Technical insight

Shoichiro Yamauchi +81-3-5255-1792 [email protected]

TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points

1. Assuming all goes well, we expect the TOPIX Core 30 Index to seek to regain its April 2010 high through spring 2011. 2. We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we focus on the three megabanks, Nintendo, Nippon Steel, Toyota Motor, and Seven & i Holdings. 3. Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off. 4. With the market likely to remain in a holding pattern for now, we think investors would be best advised to continue avoiding defensive stocks.

15 December 2010 Japanese full report & English summary: 10 Dec

Report no. S10-078

Nikkei Average (10 December)

10,211.95

TOPIX (10 December) 888.22 Please read the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pp. 69-72.gl

Nomura Securities Co Ltd, Tokyo Investment Strategy

This report provides information that is derived from technical analysis and is intended as reference for investment decisions. As such, parameters such as the basis for opinions and the assumed duration of investment differ from those for the investment opinions by Nomura's fundamental analysts. Upside and downside targets for specific stocks in this report are derived by technical analysis using ratios such as the golden ratio (0.618 : 0.382) and differ from the target prices set by Nomura fundamental analysts based on earnings forecasts. Analysis in this report is based on historical share price data and is no guarantee of future performance.

Nomura Investment Strategy

2 Technical insight

1. TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points...................................................... 3

Japan Tobacco [2914] (¥291,000)....................................................................................................6 Seven and i Holdings [3382] (¥2,091)...............................................................................................8 Shin-Etsu Chemical [4063] (¥4,190) ...............................................................................................10 Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502] (¥3,970).........................................................................................12 Astellas Pharma [4503] (¥3,050) ....................................................................................................14 Nippon Steel [5401] (¥288) .............................................................................................................16 Komatsu [6301] (¥2,496) ................................................................................................................18 Toshiba [6502] (¥437).....................................................................................................................20 Panasonic [6752] (¥1,190)..............................................................................................................22 Sony [6758] (¥3,040) ......................................................................................................................24 Nissan Motor [7201] (¥815) ............................................................................................................26 Toyota Motor [7203] (¥3,280) .........................................................................................................28 Honda Motor [7267] (¥3,135)..........................................................................................................30 Canon [7751] (¥4,085) ....................................................................................................................32 Nintendo [7974] (¥23,520 OSE)......................................................................................................34 Mitsui & Co [8031] (¥1,379) ............................................................................................................36 Mitsubishi Corp [8058] (¥2,179)......................................................................................................38 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306] (¥402)................................................................................40 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316] (¥2,620)..........................................................................42 Mizuho Financial Group [8411] (¥137)............................................................................................44 Tokio Marine Holdings [8766] (¥2,389)...........................................................................................46 Mitsubishi Estate [8802] (¥1,433) ...................................................................................................48 East Japan Railway [9020] (¥5,220) ...............................................................................................50 Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432] (¥3,815).........................................................................52 KDDI [9433] (¥487,000) ..................................................................................................................54 NTT Docomo [9437] (¥137,600) .....................................................................................................56 Tokyo Electric Power [9501] (¥1,984).............................................................................................58 Kansai Electric Power [9503] (¥2,050)............................................................................................60 Softbank [9984] (¥3,000) ................................................................................................................62 Sample............................................................................................................................................64

Nomura Holdings [8604] is excluded from detailed analysis

Contents


Technical insight 3

1. TOPIX Core 30 Index outlook and key points The TOPIX Core 30 Index bottomed at its 2 November low of 435 (Exhibit 1). Assuming all goes well, it could seek to regain its 12 April 2010 high of 565 through spring 2011. With wave formation suggesting that the index has moved into an upward phase corresponding to upward wave 3, we think it could aim for 680, equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the fall between the February 2007 high of 1,140 and the March 2009 low of 395, over the medium term.

We expect stocks that have been in the doldrums for some considerable time to catch up through 2011 Q1. Specifically, we regard the three megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306], Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316], and Mizuho Financial Group [8411], Nintendo [7974], Nippon Steel [5401], Toyota Motor [7203], and Seven & i Holdings [3382] as promising candidates to outperform the TOPIX. Many of these stocks fell through Oct–Nov, and have considerable return reversal potential from a chart perspective.

Some stocks that have been at the forefront of the rally to date have started to show signs of leveling off, including some export-oriented companies such as Honda Motor [7267] and Canon [7751], Mitsui & Co [8031], and Mitsubishi Estate [8802]. With some of these stocks peaking out or already forming a dead cross in terms of TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week), we expect a correction over the near term. We also expect star stocks for 2010 such as Komatsu [6301] and Softbank [9984] to move into a holding pattern once the rally runs its course.

Although defensive stocks appear to have broadly bottomed out, we think they will continue to underperform while the market remains in a holding pattern. We think investors would be well advised to continue steering clear of stocks such as Tokyo Electric Power [9501], Kansai Electric Power [9503], Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502], Astellas Pharma [4503], Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432], and NTT Docomo [9437]. (Written on 10 December)

Index could work to regain April 2010 high by spring 2011

Focusing on catchup by laggard stocks

Some stocks at forefront of rally likely to level off over short term

Best to stay away from defensive stocks


4 Technical insight

1. TOPIX Core 30 Index (weekly, intraday basis)

565.12(10/4/12)

763.76(03/9/17)

787.28(04/4/26) 738.97

(05/3/9)

1,091.12(06/4/21)

1,140.94(07/2/27)

1,136.53(07/6/18)

1,037.80(07/10/11)

928.35(08/6/6)

561.11(09/8/10)

435.84(10/11/2)

905.42(07/8/17)

880.94(06/6/14)

675.81(05/4/21)

677.65(04/10/26)639.78

(03/11/19)

510.10(03/4/14)

705.04(08/3/17)

441.09(08/11/21) 395.79

(09/3/12)

457.06(09/11/27)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(pts)

13-w k mov avg26w k mov avg52w k mov avg 100%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

Fibonacci retracement07/2/27→09/3/12

Closing price8 Dec486.64

(A)

(B)

(C)

1

(yy/m/d)

Rise since March 2009 isessentially a three-leg uptrend

(w aves 1-2-3-4-5).

2

3

Source: Nomura


Technical insight 5

2. Share price performance for TOPIX Core 30 Index stocks

Share price Change in share price (%) Deviation from moving average (%)

Code (8 Dec close) YTD high (yy/m/d) YTD low (yy/m/d) Vs end-

Nov Vs end-

2009 Latest price vs YTD low

Latest price vs YTD high (25-day) (90-day) (200-day)

Nikkei Average 10,232.33 11,339.30 (10/4/5) 8,824.06 (10/8/31) 3.0 -3.0 16.0 -9.8 3.7 7.6 3.2

TOPIX 887.39 998.90 (10/4/15) 803.12 (10/11/2) 3.1 -2.2 10.5 -11.2 3.8 5.7 1.0 TOPIX Core30 486.64 561.81 (10/4/15) 438.37 (10/11/1) 2.5 -5.6 11.0 -13.4 3.4 5.4 0.2 TOPIX Large70 874.22 969.02 (10/4/27) 770.57 (10/8/31) 3.1 1.7 13.5 -9.8 3.2 6.5 2.6 TOPIX Mid400 902.93 1,011.87 (10/4/26) 820.69 (10/11/2) 3.3 -2.0 10.0 -10.8 3.9 4.9 0.4 TOPIX Small 901.47 1,022.31 (10/4/26) 788.39 (10/11/2) 4.9 -0.1 14.3 -11.8 6.6 6.6 1.1 2914 Japan Tobacco 291,000 358,000 (10/1/13) 243,900 (10/10/29) 2.0 -7.0 19.3 -18.7 3.7 6.3 -0.5 3382 Seven & i Holdings 2,091 2,468 (10/4/15) 1,848 (10/11/1) 2.2 10.2 *4 13.1 -15.3 3.5 4.8 0.5 4063 Shin-Etsu Chemical 4,190 5,720 (10/4/5) 3,810 (10/8/25) 2.4 -19.9 [3] 10.0 -26.7 [5] 1.5 0.2 -8.2 [5] 4502 Takeda Pharmaceutical 3,970 4,300 (10/3/19) 3,690 (10/5/27) 2.1 3.7 7.6 -7.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 4503 Astellas Pharma 3,050 3,620 (10/1/20) 2,828 (10/7/21) 1.7 -11.8 7.9 -15.7 0.0 [3] 1.0 -1.7 5401 Nippon Steel 288 395 (10/1/12) 250 (10/10/29) 4.0 *5 -23.2 [2] 15.2 -27.1 [4] 5.1 2.5 -5.9 * 6301 Komatsu 2,496 2,500 (10/12/8) 1,571 (10/7/1) 7.7 *1 29.1 *2 58.9 *1 -0.2 *1 9.7 *1 26.3 *1 33.4 *1 6502 Toshiba 437 556 (10/4/30) 380 (10/9/2) 0.2 [2] -14.5 15.0 -21.4 2.8 5.0 -2.2 6752 Panasonic 1,190 1,585 (10/1/15) 1,027 (10/8/25) -1.2 [1] -10.2 15.9 -24.9 -0.8 [1] 4.1 -1.7 6758 Sony 3,040 3,645 (10/3/23) 2,258 (10/7/6) 2.3 13.9 *3 34.6 *5 -16.6 6.6 *3 14.1 *2 7.3 *5 7201 Nissan Motor 815 845 (10/4/6) 600 (10/7/22) 3.8 0.6 35.8 *4 -3.6 *3 4.1 13.8 *3 14.0 *3 7203 Toyota Motor 3,280 4,235 (10/1/21) 2,800 (10/11/1) 1.9 -15.5 [5] 17.1 -22.6 4.1 8.4 1.5 7267 Honda Motor 3,135 3,410 (10/1/15) 2,470 (10/7/6) 4.2 *4 0.8 26.9 -8.1 3.6 7.3 6.4 7751 Canon 4,085 4,520 (10/4/5) 3,205 (10/7/1) 3.5 4.5 27.5 -9.6 3.2 8.0 6.5 7974 Nintendo 23,520 32,950 (10/4/5) 20,180 (10/10/13) 3.5 6.7 *5 16.6 -28.6 [3] 8.1 *2 4.6 -6.8 8031 Mitsui & Co 1,379 1,665 (10/4/12) 995 (10/7/6) 5.5 *2 5.2 38.6 *3 -17.2 4.3 11.3 6.6 8058 Mitsubishi Corp 2,179 2,542 (10/1/15) 1,784 (10/9/1) 3.0 -5.5 22.1 -14.3 3.5 10.1 5.3 8306 Mitsubishi UFJ FG 402 520 (10/4/15) 364 (10/11/1) 1.5 -11.1 10.4 -22.7 2.3 0.0 [5] -6.5 8316 Sumitomo Mitsui FG 2,620 3,355 (10/4/15) 2,325 (10/11/2) 2.0 -0.9 12.7 -21.9 3.4 3.2 -3.1 8411 Mizuho Financial Group 137 196 (10/3/26) 110 (10/10/4) 3.0 -17.5 [4] 24.5 -30.1 [2] 6.2 *4 6.2 -8.7 [4] 8604 Nomura Holdings 490 783 (10/1/12) 395 (10/11/2) 1.7 -28.0 [1] 24.1 -37.4 [1] 5.4 *5 6.1 -8.8 [2] 8766 Tokio Marine Holdings 2,389 2,910 (10/4/16) 2,223 (10/10/29) 0.9 [4] -5.6 7.5 [5] -17.9 0.8 [4] 1.9 -2.8 8802 Mitsubishi Estate 1,443 1,723 (10/4/30) 1,153 (10/7/22) 2.2 -2.4 25.2 -16.3 -0.4 [2] 4.9 2.9 9020 East Japan Railway 5,220 6,750 (10/4/7) 4,790 (10/11/17) 4.4 *3 -11.1 9.0 -22.7 4.8 -0.4 [4] -8.7 [3] 9432 NTT 3,815 4,075 (10/1/15) 3,580 (10/6/10) 0.7 [3] 4.5 6.6 [2] -6.4 *4 0.8 [4] 2.6 1.4 9433 KDDI 487,000 553,000 (10/1/15) 387,500 (10/10/4) 1.8 -1.2 25.7 -11.9 2.6 12.6 *5 10.0 *4 9437 NTT Docomo 137,600 154,400 (10/4/20) 129,600 (10/1/5) 1.3 [5] 6.2 6.2 [1] -10.9 1.0 -1.3 [2] -1.4 9501 Tokyo Electric Power 1,984 2,504 (10/1/25) 1,853 (10/10/28) 1.7 -15.0 7.1 [4] -20.8 3.2 -8.3 [1] -13.7 [1] 9503 Kansai Electric Power 2,050 2,203 (10/9/7) 1,919 (10/10/15) 1.8 -2.4 6.8 [3] -6.9 *5 1.0 -1.0 [3] -2.1 * 9984 Softbank 3,000 3,085 (10/12/8) 1,997 (10/5/7) 3.4 38.2 *1 50.2 *2 -2.8 *2 5.0 13.0 *4 22.2 *2

Note: (1) Year-to-date high (low) is closing-price basis for indices and continuous session basis for individual stocks. (2) New year-to-date highs recorded in December denoted by * in front of the stock code, new year-to-date lows denoted by . (3) Latest price versus year-to-date low (high) is the change in the stock price from the year-to-date low (high) to the latest closing price. (4) For change in share price and deviation from moving average, top five gainers denoted by *1–5, bottom five losers denoted by [1–5]. Source: Nomura


6 Technical insight

Japan Tobacco [2914] (¥291,000) • The stock price had been declining since January 2010, but could now be on an uptrend since bottoming at

¥243,900 on 29 October. • There has been an overall improvement in upturn signs on the chart. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has

bottomed and now looks likely to return to positive territory, while the TOPIX-relative stock price itself is now pushing above the line of resistance that has held since January 2008. In the near term, we see the stock testing its January 2010 high of ¥358,000.

• Once it has broken above this level, we would see it heading for ¥403,900, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the December 2007 high of ¥708,000 to the March 2009 low of ¥216,000.

1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)

Cumulative trading value for

different ranges

0500

1,0001,5002,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

358.0(10/1/13)

366.0(08/11/5)

523(08/8/29)

604(07/1/5)

477(06/4/21)

236(04/12/30)183.8

(04/4/28)

370(05/10/31)

708(07/12/21)

243.9(10/10/29)

240.8(09/11/9)216.0

(09/3/10)

250.1(08/10/28)

411(08/7/11)

168(04/7/27)

514(07/3/7)

128.8(03/4/7)

362(06/6/15)

314(05/11/10)

206(05/2/14)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥ '000)

13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg

100%

0.0%

23.6%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


(3)

(1)

(4)

(2)

Start ofmedium-term wave

(5)

38.2%

(yy/m/d)

(B)

(C)

(A)

(1)

-8-4048

12(%)

Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9）(relat iv e price basis)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50100150200250300

Relative price vs TOPIX

-30-20-10

01020

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

('000 shs)

Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus) (yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura


Technical insight 7

2. Price data and major chart points 3. Daily candlestick chart

2010/12/8 291.0 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 25.3 Prev mo-end 285.4 2.0 P/B (x) 1.80

(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 313.0 -7.0 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.92 YTD high 358.0 -18.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.93 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 243.9 19.3 RSI (25) 70.0 47.7 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 50.0 41.7 Historical high 708.0 -58.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 54.8 59.9 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 59.6 53.0

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 2.06 Ratio (x)5-day 290.0 0.3 up Short margin (thou shs) 8.98 0.23 25-day 282.3 3.1 up I II III75-day 272.9 6.6 up High 100% 708.0 708.0 200-day 292.3 -0.5 down 76.4% 591.9 571.3 5-wk 288.7 0.8 up 61.8% 520.1 486.7 13-wk 275.4 5.7 up 50.0% 462.0 418.4 26-wk 275.7 5.5 down 38.2% 403.9 350.1 52-wk 297.7 -2.2 up 23.6% 332.1 265.5 12-mo 294.3 -1.1 down Low 0.0% 216.0 128.8 24-mo 282.8 2.9 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 417.1 -30.2 down 269.0 309.6 447.8 120-mo 302.7 -3.9 up 262.4 299.4 438.0

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/1/13)

(10/10/29)

(07/12/21)

Closingprice

2,910

Ichimoku chart ptsCloud upperCloud lower

0

50

100

150

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

294.0(9/16)

274.9(10/26)

301.5(11/24)293.4

(7/28)

257.6(9/1)

246.4(10/13)

243.9(10/29)

220

240

260

280

300

320

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥ '000)

25-day mov avg75-day mov avg200-day mov avg

(y y /m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura

4. Monthly candlestick chart (logarithmic)

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

204(96/2)

240(94/10)

308(99/7)

182.8(01/7)

708(07/12)

358.0(10/1)

243.9(10/10)216.0

(09/3)

142(95/6)

149.6(97/1) 137.2

(00/3)

139(01/12) 128.8

(03/4)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥ '000)

24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg

(CY)

I

(5)

(1)

(C)

II300

200

150

100

400

500

700(B)

(A)

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Nov 1994)

308(99/7)

708(07/12)

128.8(03/4)

142(95/6)

216.0(09/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥ '000)

(CY)

300

100

500

200

700

150

400

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 6 10 -3.4 4 12 -2.3 4 6 Feb 8 8 -0.6 8 8 0.2 1 0 Mar 13 3 2.5 9 7 0.9 0 3 Apr 7 9 1.7 5 11 -0.3 0 1 May 12 4 1.5 11 5 2.7 0 0 Jun 7 9 -0.3 8 8 -1.3 1 1 Jul 11 5 1.8 11 5 2.8 2 0 Aug 9 7 0.8 9 7 2.4 1 0 Sep 11 5 0.9 10 6 2.1 0 0 Oct 9 7 -2.6 10 6 0.2 2 2 Nov 9 8 -1.5 10 7 -1.9 1 0 Dec 13 4 4.6 11 6 3.9 5 4 Jan-Mar 8 8 -1.6 5 11 -1.6 5 9 Apr-Jun 10 6 3.1 9 7 1.3 1 2 Jul-Sep 11 5 3.1 12 4 7.0 3 0 Oct-Dec 10 6 1.2 10 6 2.9 8 6 Jan-Dec 8 8 7.0 10 6 11.1 17 17

(vs TOPIX) No. of hi/loNo. of ups/downs

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


8 Technical insight

Seven and i Holdings [3382] (¥2,091) • The recent rise has taken the share price above the medium-term resistance line running through highs of January

2006 and April 2010. It now looks likely that it formed a double bottom at the lows of ¥1,831 in December 2009 and ¥1,848 in November 2010.

• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looks to have bottomed. Once the stock has consolidated its current level, we would expect it to head towards the April 2010 high of ¥2,468.

• Once it has broken above this level, we would see it heading for ¥3,202, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2006 high of ¥5,420 to the December 2009 low of ¥1,831.


Cumulative tradingvalue for

different ranges

0500

1,0001,5002,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,120(09/1/5)

5,420(06/1/4)

4,020(04/4/13)

4,010(03/10/2)

4,240(06/8/18) 4,000

(07/2/26)

3,550(08/8/5)

2,465(09/5/20)

2,468(10/4/15)

1,848(10/11/1)

3,390(06/11/21)

3,510(06/6/9)

2,830(05/4/21)

3,050(03/11/19)

2,720(03/2/28)

1,994(08/3/17)

2,050(08/10/27) 1,901

(09/3/10)1,831

(09/12/18)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

23.6%


(B)

(A)Start of

(A)-(B)-(C)wave（99/11/30）

(C) (yy/m/d)

Data before 25 Aug 2005 are connected with the prices of Seven Eleven Japan

-6-30369

12(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

40

60

80

100Relative price vs TOPIX

-20

24

6

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)

Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)

Source: Nomura


Technical insight 9


2010/12/8 2,091 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 18.5 Prev mo-end 2,045 2.2 P/B (x) 1.09

(¥) Prev yr-end 1,897 10.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.9 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.67 YTD high 2,468 -15.3 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.83 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 1,848 13.1 RSI (25) 68.8 46.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 41.7 41.7 Historical high 18,290 -88.6 Stoch-fast (13,9) 57.8 50.8 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 59.6 44.8

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.42 Ratio(x)5-day 2,095 -0.2 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.68 0.62 25-day 2,030 3.0 up I II III75-day 1,984 5.4 up High 100% 5,420 18,290 200-day 2,081 0.5 up 76.4% 4,573 14,406 5-wk 2,064 1.3 up 61.8% 4,049 12,003 13-wk 1,984 5.4 up 50.0% 3,626 10,061 26-wk 2,014 3.8 up 38.2% 3,202 8,118 52-wk 2,061 1.4 up 23.6% 2,678 5,715 12-mo 2,062 1.4 up Low 0.0% 1,831 1,831 24-mo 2,116 -1.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,919 -28.4 down 1,967 2,188 3,707 120-mo 3,393 -38.4 down 1,926 2,150 2,885

Closingprice

1,854

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/11/1)

(99/11/30)

Ichimoku chart ptsupper cloudlower cloud

0

50

100

150

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,117(8/10) 2,064

(10/7)

2,160(11/22)

1,909(8/31)

1,848(11/1)

1,891(10/5)

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

3,550(08/8)

5,420(06/1)

5,420(02/6)

4,020(04/4)

18,290(99/11)

4,750(98/1)

3,537(94/3)

2,732(91/10)2,392

(90/1)

1,506(88/2)

1,556(86/7) 1,831

(09/12)

1,994(08/3)

2,830(05/4)

2,720(03/2)

3,770(01/8)

3,835(98/10)

2,618(95/4)

2,005(92/8)

1,394(90/10)1,088

(88/11)979(87/11)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(B)

(A)

I

II


1,000

7,000

5,000

4,0003,000

2,000

1,500

10,000

15,000

20,000

(C)

Source: Nomura


18,290(99/11)

5,420(06/1)

2,720(03/2) 1,831

(09/12)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

1,000

100

10,000

2,000

500

20,000

200

5,000

(CY)


up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 14 17 -1.0 14 17 -1.8 8 10 Feb 16 15 0.2 18 13 0.1 2 3 Mar 15 16 1.0 13 18 -0.7 1 1 Apr 18 13 4.1 15 16 1.9 2 3 May 20 11 0.6 17 14 0.5 2 0 Jun 16 15 0.1 17 14 0.2 1 1 Jul 19 12 1.5 17 14 1.7 1 1 Aug 16 15 0.6 13 18 0.8 1 2 Sep 14 17 -0.2 14 17 1.4 0 1 Oct 16 15 0.2 16 15 1.3 3 4 Nov 21 11 5.6 23 9 5.6 4 5 Dec 20 12 3.4 17 15 1.9 7 1 Jan-Mar 16 15 0.6 15 16 -2.2 11 14 Apr-Jun 17 14 4.8 17 14 2.6 5 4 Jul-Sep 15 16 2.2 17 14 4.1 2 4 Oct-Dec 22 9 8.4 20 11 8.1 14 10 Jan-Dec 17 14 22.3 17 14 15.4 32 32


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


10 Technical insight

Shin-Etsu Chemical [4063] (¥4,190) • We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the July

2007 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line running through the December 2008 and August 2010 lows.

• Even if it breaks above this range, we would expect it to remain range-bound with the line through the June 2008 and April 2010 highs (dotted line in top graph of Exhibit 1) forming the upper limit.

• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is still negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the downward channel since September 2009 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the April 2010 high of ¥5,720.



different ranges

0

500

1,000

1,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

5,720(10/4/5)

6,010(09/9/24)

7,000(08/6/6)

8,170(06/10/26)

4,980(03/9/2)

4,780(04/4/26) 4,340

(05/3/3)

7,040(06/1/13)

9,580(07/7/13)

3,810(10/8/25)3,400

(08/12/5)3,390

(03/4/14)

3,740(03/11/18) 3,550

(04/8/16)

3,710(05/4/21)

5,380(06/6/14)

6,880(07/3/5)

4,680(08/3/17)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

100%Fibonacci retracement

07/7/13→08/12/5

(5)

(4)

(B)

(yy/m/d)

(C)

1

2

(A)

-8

-4

0

4

8(%)

Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9）(relativ e price basis)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

6080

100120


-2

0

2

4

6

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura


Technical insight 11



(¥) Prev yr-end 5,230 -19.9 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.7 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.38 YTD high 5,720 -26.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.40 （High→ latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,810 10.0 RSI (25) 58.6 39.9 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 50.0 66.7 Historical high 9,580 -56.3 Stoch-fast (13,9) 66.7 49.9 （High→ latest） Stoch-slow (3) 68.1 53.3

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.87 Ratio (x)5-day 4,194 -0.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.46 4.05 25-day 4,136 1.3 up I II III75-day 4,183 0.2 up High 100% 9,580 9,580 200-day 4,563 -8.2 down 76.4% 8,122 7,542 5-wk 4,160 0.7 up 61.8% 7,219 6,281 13-wk 4,222 -0.8 down 50.0% 6,490 5,261 26-wk 4,221 -0.7 down 38.2% 5,761 4,242 52-wk 4,650 -9.9 down 23.6% 4,858 2,981 12-mo 4,480 -6.5 down Low 0.0% 3,400 943 24-mo 4,681 -10.5 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,912 -29.1 down 4,244 5,105 6,565 120-mo 5,124 -18.2 down 4,178 5,025 5,920

1,811

Ichimoku chart ptsupper cloudlower cloud

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/4/5)

(10/8/25)

(07/7/13)

Closingprice

050

100150200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

4,545(10/15)

3,970(11/1)

3,810(8/25)

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg75-day mov avg

200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

6,010(09/9)4,980

(03/9)

5,920(02/3)

6,630(00/3)

3,600(97/10)

2,210(94/6)

1,667(91/4)

2,219(89/4)

2,190(87/10)

9,580(07/7)

3,810(10/8)

1,295(88/10)

943(90/10)

1,162(92/8)

1,362(95/6)

1,951(98/9)

3,260(01/10)

3,390(03/4)

3,550(04/8) 3,400

(08/12)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(3)

(5)

(4)

(1)

(2)

I

II

1,000

5,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

7,000

10,000 (B)

(A)

(C)

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Feb 1970)

9,580(07/7)

2,219(89/4)

6,630(00/3)

3,400(08/12)

943(90/10)

3,260(01/10)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

5,000

2,000

500

10,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 31 9 4.1 25 15 2.6 4 11 Feb 20 21 1.2 18 23 0.6 1 0 Mar 30 11 4.5 24 17 2.6 3 1 Apr 27 14 3.5 22 19 2.0 8 2 May 20 21 -0.1 17 24 -0.5 4 1 Jun 15 26 -1.0 15 26 -1.5 4 4 Jul 25 16 0.9 23 18 0.8 3 3 Aug 24 17 -0.8 20 21 -0.4 0 3 Sep 22 19 -0.7 19 22 0.6 2 3 Oct 23 18 0.8 22 19 1.9 6 6 Nov 22 19 -0.1 22 19 -0.4 2 4 Dec 26 15 1.8 22 19 0.2 4 3 Jan-Mar 31 9 9.8 21 19 5.7 8 12 Apr-Jun 20 21 2.5 18 23 0.0 16 7 Jul-Sep 22 19 -0.5 19 22 0.8 5 9 Oct-Dec 23 18 2.5 22 19 1.6 12 13 Jan-Dec 27 13 15.2 23 17 8.4 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Takeda Pharmaceutical [4502] (¥3,970) • We expect little upside, but also see little risk on the downside. For now, we see the stock moving in a narrow range

between the May 2010 low of ¥3,690 and the March 2010 high of ¥4,300.

• The downtrend in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has steepened recently, making it more likely that it will turn negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the resistance line since August 2010 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the March 2010 high of ¥4,300.



different ranges

01000200030004000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

8,430(07/6/6)

6,950(05/10/3)

5,420(04/11/12)

4,770(03/6/20)

6,160(08/8/13)

4,750(09/1/5)

3,960(09/5/20)

4,300(10/3/19)

3,750(10/10/27)

3,750(03/4/16)

3,850(03/10/24)

4,830(05/1/21)

6,170(06/1/17)

4,850(08/3/18)

4,160(08/10/10)

3,130(09/3/10)

3,500(09/11/12)

3,690(10/5/27)

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%

23.6%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


100%

38.2%

(4)

(5)

(A)

(B)

(C) (yy/m/d)

1

-10

-5

0

5

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

5060708090

100110


-20246

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 3,830 3.7 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.53 YTD high 4,300 -7.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.55 （High→ latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 3,690 7.6 RSI (25) 61.1 52.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 41.7 41.7 Historical high 8,430 -52.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 37.1 47.1 （High→ latest） Stoch-slow (3) 35.9 43.1

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.72 Ratio (x)5-day 3,906 1.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.71 1.01 25-day 3,920 1.3 up I II III75-day 3,908 1.6 up High 100% 8,430 8,430 200-day 3,950 0.5 up 76.4% 7,179 6,672 5-wk 3,934 0.9 up 61.8% 6,405 5,584 13-wk 3,915 1.4 down 50.0% 5,780 4,705 26-wk 3,925 1.1 up 38.2% 5,155 3,826 52-wk 3,946 0.6 up 23.6% 4,381 2,738 12-mo 3,922 1.2 up Low 0.0% 3,130 980 24-mo 3,839 3.4 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,608 -29.2 down 3,898 3,950 6,295 120-mo 5,387 -26.3 down 3,853 3,900 5,728


↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/5/27)

(07/6/6)

Closingprice

3,135

↑

0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

4,000(11/11)

4,045(9/15)

4,070(8/10)

3,750(10/27)

3,810(8/25)

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,300(10/3)

6,160(08/8)

8,430(07/6)

8,080(00/4)

3,850(97/12)

1,430(93/4)

1,860(91/3)

3,345(87/4)

3,130(09/3)

4,850(08/3)

3,850(03/10)

3,750(03/4)

4,560(01/9)

4,360(00/1)

3,030(98/3)

1,000(95/3)

980(92/4)

1,220(90/8)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(4)

(5)(3)

(2)

(1)

(A)

(B)

(C)

I

II

1,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

10,000

8,000

Source: Nomura


8,430(07/6)

8,080(00/4)

3,345(87/4)

3,130(09/3)

3,750(03/4)

980(92/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

4,000

2,000

500

8,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 2.1 21 19 0.8 10 13 Feb 19 22 -1.1 10 31 -1.7 4 1 Mar 24 17 2.4 20 21 0.5 2 6 Apr 24 17 1.3 21 20 -0.1 5 2 May 22 19 0.4 21 20 0.2 2 2 Jun 17 24 -0.8 17 24 -1.3 1 1 Jul 25 16 1.4 25 16 1.5 0 4 Aug 24 17 1.1 23 18 1.7 2 1 Sep 21 20 1.2 27 14 2.5 0 1 Oct 21 20 -0.7 23 18 0.3 3 2 Nov 22 19 1.0 20 21 0.7 2 4 Dec 28 13 2.2 22 19 0.7 10 4 Jan-Mar 21 19 4.1 11 29 -0.1 16 20 Apr-Jun 22 19 0.8 15 26 -1.3 8 5 Jul-Sep 25 16 3.6 31 10 5.7 2 6 Oct-Dec 24 17 2.5 25 16 1.7 15 10 Jan-Dec 22 18 14.0 21 19 8.3 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Astellas Pharma [4503] (¥3,050) • Recent gains mean the stock has now broken above the downward channel since July 2007. It now looks likely that

it formed a double bottom at the lows of ¥2,820 in March 2009 and ¥2,828 in July 2010.

• However, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has turned downward recently, making it more likely that it will turn negative. We see the stock as unlikely to enter an uptrend until it breaks above the resistance line since December 2008 sometime in the future, and we think it will take considerable time for it to recover to the January 2010 high of ¥3,620.


Cumulative tradinvalue for

different ranges

0

500

1,000

1,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,620(10/1/20)

3,900(09/8/10)

5,040(08/8/5)

5,650(07/7/17)

5,090(06/1/5)

4,120(04/11/15)

3,500(03/7/10)

2,828(10/7/21)

3,090(09/11/27)

2,820(09/3/12)

3,300(08/10/28)

3,690(08/3/18)

3,910(06/6/15)

3,540(05/3/25)

2,745(03/11/5)

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

61.8%

76.4%

50.0%

38.2%

23.6%


(B)

(yy/m/d)(C)

-10

-5

0

5

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

60

80

100

120


-2-10

12

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 3,460 -11.8 ROE (forecast) (%) 8.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.09 YTD high 3,620 -15.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.67 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,828 7.9 RSI (25) 54.7 51.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 58.3 58.3 Historical high 6,280 -51.4 Stoch-fast (13,9) 23.9 58.7 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 25.9 63.2

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.22 Ratio (x)5-day 3,043 3,049 0.0 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.29 0.75 25-day 3,051 3,053 -0.1 up I II III75-day 3,039 3,041 0.3 up High 100% 5,650 6,280 #N/A200-day 3,103 3,102 -1.7 down 76.4% 4,982 5,230 #N/A5-wk 3,063 3,062 -0.4 down 61.8% 4,569 4,580 #N/A13-wk 3,067 3,070 -0.6 up 50.0% 4,235 4,055 #N/A26-wk 3,008 3,012 1.3 up 38.2% 3,901 3,530 #N/A52-wk 3,164 3,157 -3.4 down 23.6% 3,488 2,880 #N/A12-mo 3,134 3,099 -1.6 down Low 0.0% 2,820 1,830 #N/A24-mo 3,268 3,244 -6.0 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,170 4,144 -26.4 down 3,072 3,366 4,475 120-mo 3,846 3,831 -20.4 down 3,027 3,183 4,323

Closingprice

1,427

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/21)

(00/4/5)


0

50

100

150

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

3,160(11/19)

3,205(10/19)

2,940(11/4)

2,828(7/21)

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

3,900(09/8)

5,650(07/7)5,090

(06/1)

4,120(04/11)3,750

(02/3)

6,280(00/4)6,700

(99/8)

3,270(97/7)

2,510(96/5)

3,170(91/4)

3,845(89/1)

4,074(87/7)

5,040(08/8)

2,828(10/7)

2,820(09/3)

2,745(03/11)2,560

(02/9)

2,745(01/9)

3,370(00/1)

2,610(97/12)

2,160(97/1)

1,830(95/5)

1,830(94/11)

2,036(90/10)

2,487(87/11)

3,690(08/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(A)

(5)

(3)

(B)

(4)

I

II

1,500

4,000

3,000

2,500

2,000

5,000

6,0007,000

(C)

Source: Nomura


5,650(07/7)4,074

(87/7)

6,280(00/4)

2,820(09/3)1,830

(94/11)

2,560(02/9)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

5,000

2,000

500

8,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 2.5 21 19 1.2 6 12 Feb 24 17 1.3 22 19 0.7 2 1 Mar 18 23 0.7 20 21 -1.0 1 5 Apr 26 15 1.1 20 21 -0.2 6 1 May 23 18 0.4 17 24 0.1 3 1 Jun 23 18 1.1 20 21 0.6 2 2 Jul 23 18 1.1 23 18 1.1 4 4 Aug 19 22 0.0 21 20 0.6 4 3 Sep 23 18 2.2 27 14 3.5 1 2 Oct 18 23 -0.1 23 18 0.8 3 3 Nov 22 19 0.6 22 19 0.5 3 5 Dec 22 19 1.7 22 19 0.1 6 2 Jan-Mar 21 19 4.7 15 25 1.0 9 18 Apr-Jun 25 16 2.6 24 17 0.5 11 4 Jul-Sep 24 17 2.9 28 13 5.0 9 9 Oct-Dec 20 21 2.3 22 19 1.6 12 10 Jan-Dec 25 15 12.7 24 16 8.4 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Nippon Steel [5401] (¥288) • The stock is currently forming a double bottom at the March 2009 low of ¥233 and the October 2010 low of ¥250. It

could well turn upward if the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) shows signs of bottoming.

• In the near term, it could test critical junctures around ¥400, such as the January 2010 high of ¥395, the June 2009 high of ¥407, or ¥406, which represents a 23.6% retracement of the decline from the high of ¥964 in July 2007 to the low of ¥233 in March 2009.

• Once it has recovered this level, we would see it heading for ¥512, which represents a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July 2007 high of ¥964 to the March 2009 low of ¥233.



different ranges

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

395(10/1/12)

964(07/7/23)

263(04/4/14)

294(05/3/1)

479(06/3/1)

705(08/5/20)

407(09/6/15)

250(10/10/29)

370(06/6/14)

242(05/5/25) 203

(04/5/17) 127

(03/4/28)

427(08/3/17)

233(09/3/12)

298(09/10/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)



100%

0.0%

76.4%

61.8%

38.2%

50.0%


（02/11/19）

23.6%

(1)

(2)

(3)

(yy/m/d)

1

2

-10-505

1015

(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9）(relativ e price basis)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50100150200250300350


-1000

100200300

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura




2010/12/8 288 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 15.1 Prev mo-end 277 4.0 P/B (x) 1.09

(¥) Prev yr-end 375 -23.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 7.2 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.04 YTD high 395 -27.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.17 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 250 15.2 RSI (25) 68.0 42.9 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 66.7 50.0 Historical high 984 -70.7 Stoch-fast (13,9) 66.5 39.2 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 64.5 33.9

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 33.13 Ratio (x)5-day 284 1.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 9.96 3.33 25-day 276 4.3 up I II III75-day 279 3.2 flat High 100% 964 964 200-day 307 -6.1 down 76.4% 791 765 5-wk 281 2.6 up 61.8% 685 641 13-wk 277 4.0 down 50.0% 599 542 26-wk 286 0.8 down 38.2% 512 442 52-wk 315 -8.5 down 23.6% 406 318 12-mo 304 -5.4 down Low 0.0% 233 119 24-mo 318 -9.4 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 480 -40.0 down 276 353 590 120-mo 350 -17.8 up 265 338 539

Closingprice

1,960

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/10/29)

(89/2/23)


050

100150200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

291(11/29)

302(9/7)

276(8/31)

250(10/29)

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

407(09/6)

984(89/2)

521(91/3)

420(93/4) 392

(97/5)314

(99/8)

230(01/4)

217(02/5)

479(06/3)

964(07/7)

705(08/5)

250(10/10)

229(92/8)

153(86/10)

371(90/10)

271(95/7)

146(98/1)

165(00/10) 145

(01/9)119

(02/11)

242(05/5)

370(06/6)

427(08/3)

233(09/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥) 24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg

(CY)

(1)

(2)

(3)I

II

800

400300250

200

150

100

500600

1,000

Source: Nomura


182(73/1)

236(81/8)

984(89/2)

392(97/5)

964(07/7)

84(77/11)

229(92/8)

119(02/11)

233(09/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

300

100

50

500

200

1,000

150

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 25 15 2.5 22 18 1.0 8 10 Feb 24 17 2.2 21 20 1.6 1 1 Mar 22 19 1.5 18 23 -0.5 4 4 Apr 20 21 2.0 20 21 0.5 5 1 May 22 19 1.0 20 21 0.7 3 3 Jun 20 21 -0.7 14 27 -1.4 2 1 Jul 23 18 1.9 23 18 1.9 3 2 Aug 22 19 1.3 23 18 1.7 4 1 Sep 15 26 -2.4 15 26 -1.3 1 1 Oct 14 27 -2.6 17 24 -1.7 5 9 Nov 22 19 0.6 19 22 0.2 2 5 Dec 29 12 2.3 22 19 0.6 3 3 Jan-Mar 29 11 6.9 25 15 2.4 13 15 Apr-Jun 21 20 2.1 16 25 -0.3 10 5 Jul-Sep 17 24 1.4 20 21 2.5 8 4 Oct-Dec 18 23 0.4 16 25 -0.7 10 17 Jan-Dec 23 17 12.7 18 22 3.5 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Komatsu [6301] (¥2,496) • In terms of wave formation, the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 3. As it has already broken

through ¥2,396, or a 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2007 high of ¥4,090 to the August 2010 low of ¥702, we now see it testing ¥2,796, or a 61.8% retracement.

• However, recent gains have pushed stochastics above 90%, and with the RSI (25 week) approaching the 80% line, it is in the zone requiring caution regarding overheating, and may need to consolidate before pushing higher again. We expect the stock to flatten out at high levels after near-term gains.



different ranges

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

2,500(10/12/8)

3,440(08/6/5)

837(05/3/10)

2,670(06/5/9)

715(04/1/6)

4,090(07/10/16)

2,099(10/1/12)

1,571(10/7/1)

702(08/10/28)

1,992(06/11/21)

715(05/4/18)

2,175(08/1/22)

1,857(06/6/14)

583(04/6/10)383

(03/1/10)0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%

38.2%

50.0%

76.4%

Fibonacci retracement07/10/16→08/10/28 100%

61.8%

23.6%

(1)

(2)

(3)

1

2Start of

medium-term wave（02/10/9）

(yy/m/d)

3

-15-10-505

1015

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

0100200300400500600700


-10-505

101520

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 3.67 Ratio (x)5-day 2,459 1.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 9.44 0.39 25-day 2,296 8.7 up I II III75-day 2,016 23.8 up High 100% 4,090 4,090 200-day 1,875 33.1 up 76.4% 3,290 3,208 5-wk 2,350 6.2 up 61.8% 2,796 2,662 13-wk 2,113 18.1 up 50.0% 2,396 2,221 26-wk 1,934 29.1 up 38.2% 1,996 1,779 52-wk 1,889 32.1 up 23.6% 1,502 1,233 12-mo 1,920 30.0 up Low 0.0% 702 351 24-mo 1,689 47.8 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,223 12.3 up 1,944 1,796 2,351 120-mo 1,440 73.3 up 1,844 1,693 2,234

2,493


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/1)

(07/10/16)

Closingprice

0

200

400

600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,500(12/8)

1,877(8/3)

1,682(9/1)

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2,099(10/1)

4,090(07/10)

2,670(06/5)

715(04/1)

803(00/7)

820(99/5)

1,090(96/4)

997(94/6)

1,470(89/12)

1,571(10/7)

702(08/10)

532(92/6)

565(95/3) 486

(98/1) 444(00/3)

355(01/9)

351(02/10)

2,175(08/1)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(2)

(1)

(3)

I

II

300

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

3,000

4,000

Source: Nomura


1,470(89/12)

4,090(07/10)

702(08/10)

351(02/10)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

3,000

2,000

500

4,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 23 17 1.2 17 23 -0.3 7 15 Feb 22 19 0.0 17 24 -0.6 2 2 Mar 32 9 4.2 26 15 2.3 0 5 Apr 25 16 2.8 22 19 1.3 4 1 May 24 17 2.1 24 17 1.9 4 0 Jun 22 19 2.0 20 21 1.5 3 2 Jul 19 22 0.3 20 21 0.3 5 3 Aug 20 21 -0.5 17 24 -0.1 2 0 Sep 22 19 -0.8 22 19 0.4 3 1 Oct 16 25 -2.8 18 23 -1.9 4 5 Nov 24 17 1.3 20 21 0.9 2 3 Dec 22 19 1.4 19 22 -0.2 5 4 Jan-Mar 23 17 5.9 22 18 1.8 9 22 Apr-Jun 27 14 7.2 23 18 4.9 11 3 Jul-Sep 17 24 -0.4 18 23 0.8 10 4 Oct-Dec 22 19 -0.4 18 23 -1.3 11 12 Jan-Dec 22 18 15.3 22 18 7.1 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Toshiba [6502] (¥437) • In terms of wave formation, we see the stock as currently being in subwave 3 of upward wave 1, and as likely to

test ¥695, or a 50% retracement of the decline from the July 2007 high of ¥1,185 to the February 2009 low of ¥204.

• However, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is currently negative, and recent stock price momentum is weak.

• We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the October 2009 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line running through the February 2009 and September 2010 lows. We do not expect a genuine rally until the stock has broken above the symmetrical triangle pattern.



different ranges

01,0002,0003,0004,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

556(10/4/30)

576(04/4/26)541

(03/7/8) 475(05/3/8)

815(06/1/13)

842(06/8/31)

1,185(07/7/24)

953(08/6/4)

442(09/1/7)

572(09/10/23)

380(10/9/2)

408(10/2/9)

318(09/7/13)

204(09/2/23)

290(08/10/28)

649(08/3/18)

705(07/3/5)

621(06/3/8)

416(05/4/18)379

(04/8/16)303(03/4/14)

369(03/11/20)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)

13-w k mov avg26-w k mov avg52-w k mov avg 100%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


(E)

(D)

(yy/m/d)

1

2

(1)

3

-15-10-505

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

6080

100120140160


-50

0

50

100

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 511 -14.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 9.1 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 0.91 YTD high 556 -21.4 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.09 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 380 15.0 RSI (25) 64.5 40.3 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 66.7 58.3 Historical high 1,500 -70.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 73.6 61.3 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 73.7 56.0

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 32.51 Ratio (x)5-day 441 -0.9 down Short margin (mn shs) 8.36 3.89 25-day 427 2.3 up I II III75-day 413 5.9 up High 100% 1,185 1,500 572 200-day 447 -2.3 up 76.4% 953 1,194 485 5-wk 430 1.6 up 61.8% 810 1,005 431 13-wk 417 4.7 up 50.0% 695 852 388 26-wk 427 2.3 down 38.2% 579 699 345 52-wk 457 -4.4 down 23.6% 436 510 291 12-mo 451 -3.1 down Low 0.0% 204 204 204 24-mo 422 3.5 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 630 -30.6 down 410 488 738 120-mo 554 -21.1 down 405 445 680

Closingprice

1,852

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/9/2)

(89/6/1)


0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

451(12/3)

427(10/7)

471(7/14)

400(10/29)

380(9/2)

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1,500(89/6)

878(94/6)

869(96/1)

1,280(00/7)

576(04/4)

815(06/1)

1,185(07/7)

853(86/9)

572(09/10)

380(10/9)

204(09/2)

379(04/8)

292(02/10)

430(98/9)

493(95/6)

530(92/3)

551(87/12)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(5)(B)

(A)

(E)

(D)

(C)

(1)

I

II

III

1,000

700

500

300

200

1,500

1,200

Source: Nomura


1,500(89/6) 1,280

(00/7)1,185(07/7)

430(98/9)

204(09/2)

292(02/10)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

700

200

1,500

1,000

500

100

300

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 1.6 19 21 0.2 8 5 Feb 15 26 -1.2 13 28 -1.8 0 4 Mar 21 20 1.8 15 26 -0.2 1 5 Apr 29 12 5.4 29 12 3.8 5 3 May 21 20 0.3 19 22 -0.0 1 0 Jun 18 23 0.1 14 27 -0.4 5 1 Jul 18 23 1.0 19 22 0.9 5 1 Aug 19 22 0.9 19 22 1.3 3 2 Sep 19 22 -2.0 22 19 -1.0 2 5 Oct 15 26 -2.5 17 24 -1.7 3 6 Nov 21 20 2.0 22 19 1.6 2 3 Dec 27 14 2.2 20 21 0.5 6 6 Jan-Mar 20 20 2.4 14 26 -1.6 9 14 Apr-Jun 27 14 5.6 21 20 3.3 11 4 Jul-Sep 16 25 0.5 17 24 1.4 10 8 Oct-Dec 22 19 1.4 22 19 0.3 11 15 Jan-Dec 24 16 9.6 18 22 2.0 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Panasonic [6752] (¥1,190) • The stock is now forming a triple bottom at the December 2008 low of ¥1,000, the November 2009 low of ¥1,062,

and the August 2010 low of ¥1,027. Once it has firmed up this bottom, we expect it to head towards the January 2010 high of ¥1,585.

• However, we expect a dead cross and a decline into negative territory by the TOPIX-relative MACD, and thus near-term stock price momentum is likely to be weak.

• In the near term, we expect the stock to form a triangular pattern bounded by the channel through the July 2006 and August 2007 lows and the January 2010 high (currently transforming into a resistance level) on the upside, and the line through the December 2008 and August 2010 lows on the downside.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

1,541(09/8/4)

2,870(06/4/21)

1,630(05/1/11)

1,694(04/4/26)

2,670(06/10/16) 2,585

(07/6/14) 2,515

(08/6/6)

1,585(10/1/15)

1,027(10/8/25)

1,062(09/11/27)

2,080(06/7/18)

1,485(05/4/21) 1,372

(04/8/16)

860(03/4/28)

1,912(07/8/21)

1,000(08/12/17)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%


23.6%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

38.2%

(A)

(B)

(C)

(yy/m/d)

-10-505

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

80

100

120


-10-505

101520

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura




2010/12/8 1,190 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 34.3 Prev mo-end 1,204 -1.2 P/B (x) 1.10


Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.17 Ratio (x)5-day 1,194 -0.3 down Short margin (mn shs) 1.89 3.79 25-day 1,201 -0.9 up I II III75-day 1,153 3.2 up High 100% 2,870 2,870 3,320 200-day 1,210 -1.6 down 76.4% 2,429 2,396 2,739 5-wk 1,206 -1.3 down 61.8% 2,156 2,102 2,380 13-wk 1,181 0.7 up 50.0% 1,935 1,865 2,090 26-wk 1,151 3.4 down 38.2% 1,714 1,628 1,800 52-wk 1,243 -4.2 down 23.6% 1,441 1,334 1,441 12-mo 1,223 -2.7 down Low 0.0% 1,000 860 860 24-mo 1,256 -5.2 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 1,856 -35.9 down 1,172 1,324 2,059 120-mo 1,733 -31.3 down 1,127 1,310 1,862

2,919


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/8/25)

(00/3/1)

Closingprice

0

200

400

600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

1,272(11/19)

1,027(8/25)

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,000

4,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2,923(88/8)

1,920(94/6)

2,520(97/8)

3,320(00/3)

1,826(02/3) 1,694

(04/4)

2,870(06/4) 2,515

(08/6)

1,585(10/1)

1,027(10/8)

995(93/3)

1,200(95/6)

1,640(98/10)

1,398(01/10)

860(03/4)

1,372(04/8)

1,912(07/8)

1,000(08/12)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg

(CY)(A)

(B)(5)

(4)

(3)

(C)

I

IIIII

800

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,200

1,000

3,5004,000

Source: Nomura


2,923(88/8)

3,320(00/3)

2,870(06/4)

860(03/4)

995(93/3)

1,000(08/12)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,500

200

3,000

2,000

1,000

4,000

500

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 -0.0 18 22 -1.3 8 7 Feb 19 22 -0.7 17 24 -1.3 1 5 Mar 24 17 4.1 26 15 2.1 4 2 Apr 24 17 3.9 25 16 2.5 2 4 May 17 24 -1.1 14 27 -1.4 2 2 Jun 18 23 0.6 21 20 0.2 4 1 Jul 20 21 0.5 18 23 0.5 3 3 Aug 16 25 -2.3 17 24 -1.8 5 3 Sep 18 23 -2.5 17 24 -1.3 1 2 Oct 22 19 0.8 24 17 1.8 1 3 Nov 21 20 0.3 20 21 -0.1 3 5 Dec 29 12 4.1 29 12 2.4 7 4 Jan-Mar 21 19 3.5 17 23 -0.5 13 14 Apr-Jun 24 17 3.5 21 20 1.1 8 7 Jul-Sep 18 23 -4.4 18 23 -2.9 9 8 Oct-Dec 28 13 5.1 30 11 3.9 11 12 Jan-Dec 25 15 8.8 22 18 1.4 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Sony [6758] (¥3,040) • Wave formation suggests the stock is in the initial phase of a rally corresponding to the upward subwave 3 of

upward wave 1.

• Recent gains have taken the share price through the medium-term resistance line running through highs of May 2007, December 2007 and March 2010. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is positive and rising, and thus recent stock price momentum has been strong.

• Our near-term target is the March 2010 high of ¥3,645, which is close to a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥7,190 to the February 2009 low of ¥1,491. Once it has recovered to this high, it is likely to head towards a 50% retracement at ¥4,341.



dif ferent ranges

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,645(10/3/23)

5,560(08/6/2)

6,410(07/12/26)

7,190(07/5/22)

6,200(06/4/21)

4,420(05/3/28)

4,710(04/4/26) 4,450

(03/9/17)

2,830(09/10/30)

2,258(10/7/6)

3,910(08/3/18)

5,050(07/8/17)

4,340(06/10/5)

3,660(05/7/29)

3,550(04/8/16)

2,720(03/4/28)

3,490(03/12/10)

1,491(09/2/24)

2,250(09/12/1)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%

76.4%

100%

61.8%

50.0%

23.6%

38.2%


(A)

(B)

1

(C) (yy/m/d)

2

3

(1)

20406080

100120


-15-10

-505

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

-8-4048

1216

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 4.01 Ratio (x)5-day 3,021 0.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 3.75 1.1 25-day 2,867 6.0 up I II III75-day 2,673 13.7 up High 100% 7,190 16,950 200-day 2,833 7.3 up 76.4% 5,845 13,302 5-wk 2,918 4.2 up 61.8% 5,013 11,045 13-wk 2,752 10.4 up 50.0% 4,341 9,221 26-wk 2,634 15.4 up 38.2% 3,668 7,396 52-wk 2,852 6.6 up 23.6% 2,836 5,139 12-mo 2,872 5.8 up Low 0.0% 1,491 1,491 24-mo 2,629 15.7 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,073 -25.4 down 2,685 3,008 4,478 120-mo 4,513 -32.6 down 2,571 2,895 4,071

Closingprice

3,054

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/6)

(00/3/1)


0

200

400

600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

3,090(12/2)

2,803(8/3)

2,338(9/1)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,318(89/10)

3,230(94/2)

6,745(98/7)

16,950(00/3)

7,460(02/5)

4,710(04/4)

6,200(06/4)

7,190(07/5)

3,645(10/3)

2,258(10/7)

1,164(87/4)

1,675(92/8)

1,865(95/6)

3,615(98/10)

3,960(01/10)

2,720(03/4)

3,660(05/7)

1,491(09/2)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(A)

(B)

(5)

(4)

(3)(1)

(C)

I

II

1,000

12,00010,000

8,000

5,000

3,000

1,500

15,00018,000

2,000

Source: Nomura


7,190(07/5)

16,950(00/3)

4,318(89/10)2,663

(81/6)

1,491(09/2)1,164

(87/4)

1,675(92/8)

2,720(03/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

5,000

500

15,00010,000

2,000

20,000

1,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 1.2 19 21 -0.2 4 5 Feb 23 18 1.8 22 19 1.2 2 6 Mar 24 17 3.9 24 17 1.9 5 3 Apr 24 17 2.4 20 21 1.0 5 3 May 20 21 -0.3 22 19 -0.7 5 0 Jun 19 22 0.3 17 24 -0.1 1 3 Jul 17 24 -0.5 16 25 -0.5 4 3 Aug 16 25 -2.1 10 31 -1.6 1 3 Sep 17 24 -0.9 16 25 0.2 1 2 Oct 20 21 -1.2 18 23 -0.4 4 6 Nov 21 20 1.2 20 21 0.9 2 2 Dec 30 11 5.0 28 13 3.3 7 5 Jan-Mar 26 14 7.4 20 20 3.1 11 14 Apr-Jun 23 18 2.6 23 18 0.2 11 6 Jul-Sep 15 26 -3.1 18 23 -1.9 6 8 Oct-Dec 27 14 4.8 24 17 3.6 13 13 Jan-Dec 25 15 14.5 22 18 5.6 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Nissan Motor [7201] (¥815) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.

• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of January 2007, November 2007, and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥845, or even ¥909, a 50% retracement of the decline from the January 2007 high of ¥1,557 to the February 2009 low of ¥261.

• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have weakened slightly, with growth recently slowing in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week).



dif ferent ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

998(08/6/6)

1,455(03/9/17)

1,556(06/5/8)

1,557(07/1/30)

1,388(07/11/1)

735(09/8/4)

845(10/4/6)

600(10/7/22)

786(08/3/18)

1,048(07/8/17)

772(03/3/13)

1,025(05/4/21)

1,133(06/7/24)

261(09/2/9)

571(09/9/28)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

23.6%

76.4%

61.8%

38.2%


50.0%

(B)

(C)

1

(yy/m/d)

2

3(1)

-20

-10

0

10

20(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

20406080

100120140


-30-20-10

0102030

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)Long margin balance (red bar), Net margin balance (blue line)Short margin balance (green bar, minus)

Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 810 0.6 ROE (forecast) (%) 9.5 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.22 YTD high 845 -3.6 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.43 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 600 35.8 RSI (25) 71.2 62.9 （Low→ latest） Psych line (12) 50.0 50.0 Historical high 1,700 -52.1 Stoch-fast (13,9) 69.0 87.6 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 68.2 87.0

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.26 Ratio (x)5-day 818 -0.4 up Short margin (mn shs) 8.19 0.89 25-day 788 3.4 up I II III75-day 731 11.5 up High 100% 1,557 1,700 845 200-day 716 13.9 up 76.4% 1,251 1,360 707 5-wk 799 2.0 up 61.8% 1,062 1,150 622 13-wk 758 7.5 up 50.0% 909 981 553 26-wk 704 15.8 up 38.2% 756 811 484 52-wk 727 12.2 up 23.6% 567 601 399 12-mo 725 12.4 up Low 0.0% 261 261 261 24-mo 640 27.4 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 935 -12.8 down 721 725 979 120-mo 968 -15.8 up 693 676 790


↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/4/6)

(10/7/22)

(89/6/1)

Closingprice

3,684

↑

0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

828(12/3)

764(10/18)

683(11/2)

600(7/22)

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1,557(07/1)

1,556(06/5)1,455

(03/9)

1,041(02/5)900

(01/7)770(99/10)

1,020(96/6)934

(94/3)

1,700(89/6)

845(10/4)

600(10/7)

1,025(05/4)

772(03/3)

405(01/9)351

(00/2)290

(98/10)

480(95/6)

529(92/11)

529(86/3)

261(09/2)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(5) (B)

(A) (C)

B

A

C

(1)

I

III

II

200

2,000

1,500

1,000

800

500

300

Source: Nomura


1,557(07/1)

1,020(96/6)

1,700(89/6)

1,024(81/8)

261(09/2)

290(98/10)

529(92/11)

529(86/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

2,0001,500

500

200

2,500up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lows

Jan 22 18 2.8 19 21 1.3 9 13 Feb 20 21 1.5 21 20 1.0 2 3 Mar 23 18 1.9 21 20 -0.1 3 3 Apr 25 16 4.2 22 19 2.7 6 2 May 20 21 0.1 14 27 -0.1 3 0 Jun 25 16 2.8 27 14 2.2 3 1 Jul 16 25 -0.8 16 25 -0.8 2 3 Aug 18 23 -1.0 17 24 -0.6 2 1 Sep 23 18 -0.6 24 17 0.5 2 3 Oct 21 20 0.1 20 21 1.0 3 4 Nov 19 22 -2.1 16 25 -2.3 1 1 Dec 21 20 2.1 18 23 0.4 5 7 Jan-Mar 23 17 7.1 18 22 2.6 14 19 Apr-Jun 26 15 7.6 24 17 4.9 12 3 Jul-Sep 17 24 -2.6 14 27 -1.2 6 7 Oct-Dec 21 20 0.7 18 23 -0.4 9 12 Jan-Dec 22 18 14.4 21 19 6.8 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Toyota Motor [7203] (¥3,280) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the December 2008 low of ¥2,585 and the

November 2010 low of ¥2,800.

• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of February 2007, July 2007, and January 2010. We see increasing signs of a chart upturn, such as the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looking like returning to positive territory after forming a golden cross.

• For now, we expect the stock to test a rebound to the medium-term double bottom neckline of around ¥4,200, where the August 2009 and January 2010 highs can be found.



different ranges

02,0004,0006,0008,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

4,235(10/1/21)

4,190(09/8/10)

5,710(08/6/6)

3,920(03/9/16)

4,520(04/7/14)

6,950(06/4/21)

8,350(07/2/27) 7,880

(07/7/4)

2,800(10/11/1)

3,290(09/11/27)

2,585(08/12/8)

4,800(08/4/14)

2,455(03/4/14)

3,780(04/12/1)

3,790(05/4/21)

5,430(06/6/14)

3,130(03/10/31)

6,130(07/8/17)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%

38.2%

61.8%

100%

76.4%

50.0%

23.6%


(5)

(4)

(A

(B)

(yy/m/d)(C)

1

2

3

(1)

-6-30

36

(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9）(relativ e price basis)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

708090

100110120130


-10-505

1015

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 4.87 Ratio (x)5-day 3,275 0.2 down Short margin (mn shs) 4.34 1.12 25-day 3,171 3.4 up I II III75-day 3,022 8.5 up High 100% 8,350 8,350 200-day 3,232 1.5 down 76.4% 6,989 6,677 5-wk 3,241 1.2 up 61.8% 6,148 5,642 13-wk 3,067 6.9 up 50.0% 5,468 4,805 26-wk 3,063 7.1 up 38.2% 4,787 3,968 52-wk 3,328 -1.5 down 23.6% 3,946 2,933 12-mo 3,238 1.3 down Low 0.0% 2,585 1,260 24-mo 3,414 -3.9 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,023 -34.7 down 2,981 3,693 5,605 120-mo 4,381 -25.1 down 2,923 3,561 4,935

11,309


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/11/1)

(07/2/27)

Closingprice

0200400600800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

3,340(11/25)

3,155(9/24)

2,806(9/1)

2,800(11/1)

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,235(10/1)

8,350(07/2)6,950

(06/4)

4,520(04/7)

5,800(00/4)

4,030(97/5)

2,250(94/6)

2,428(89/10) 2,800

(10/11)

3,790(05/4)

2,455(03/4)

2,665(01/9)

2,530(98/10)

1,590(95/5)

1,260(92/3)

2,585(08/12)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(5)

(4)

(3)

3

4

5

2

1(A)

(B)

I

II

(C)

1,000

6,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

8,000

5,000

(1)

Source: Nomura


2,428(89/10)

5,800(00/4)

8,350(07/2)

2,455(03/4)

1,260(92/3)

2,585(08/12)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

5,000

2,000

500

8,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.8 19 21 -0.5 4 10 Feb 17 24 0.4 17 24 -0.2 4 3 Mar 24 17 2.8 22 19 0.8 4 4 Apr 28 13 4.9 24 17 3.6 2 5 May 20 21 0.2 17 24 -0.0 4 1 Jun 24 17 2.3 25 16 1.8 3 1 Jul 16 25 -1.1 15 26 -1.1 3 3 Aug 23 18 -1.1 16 25 -0.6 2 1 Sep 22 19 -0.2 21 20 1.0 1 2 Oct 20 21 -0.2 22 19 0.8 3 1 Nov 19 22 -0.6 22 19 -0.8 1 3 Dec 28 13 4.6 25 16 2.9 10 7 Jan-Mar 22 18 4.3 21 19 0.3 12 17 Apr-Jun 28 13 7.6 25 16 5.3 9 7 Jul-Sep 17 24 -2.6 16 25 -0.9 6 6 Oct-Dec 26 15 4.1 23 18 2.9 14 11 Jan-Dec 25 15 15.9 24 16 7.8 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Honda Motor [7267] (¥3,135) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.

• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of February 2007 and January 2010. We think the stock will next test the January 2010 high of ¥3,410, or even ¥3,680, a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥4,940 to the December 2008 low of ¥1,643.

• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with growth peaking out in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,410(10/1/15)

3,070(09/5/7)

3,910(08/6/6)

4,400(07/11/1)

4,940(07/2/14)

4,285(06/4/27)

2,850(05/3/8)

2,820(04/9/14)

2,755(03/9/17)

2,470(10/7/6) 2,300

(09/7/9)

1,643(08/12/8)

2,610(08/3/18)

3,430(07/8/17) 3,270

(06/6/14)

2,510(05/5/2)

2,415(04/12/1)

2,045(03/11/19)1,785

(03/4/25)

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)



100%

50.0%

76.4%

0.0%

61.8%

23.6%

(5)

38.2%

(yy/m/d)(C)

(B)

(A)

1

2

3

(1)

-8

-40

4

8(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

6080

100120140160


-8-4048

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura





(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 3,110 0.8 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 1.53 YTD high 3,410 -8.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.19 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 2,470 26.9 RSI (25) 65.4 62.5 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 50.0 41.7 Historical high 4,940 -36.5 Stoch-fast (13,9) 53.6 76.6 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 54.5 76.4

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.24 Ratio (x)5-day 3,127 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.76 0.70 25-day 3,039 3.2 up I II III75-day 2,950 6.3 up High 100% 4,940 4,940 200-day 2,948 6.3 up 76.4% 4,162 3,904 5-wk 3,097 1.2 up 61.8% 3,681 3,263 13-wk 3,008 4.2 up 50.0% 3,292 2,745 26-wk 2,866 9.4 up 38.2% 2,902 2,227 52-wk 2,986 5.0 up 23.6% 2,421 1,586 12-mo 2,964 5.8 up Low 0.0% 1,643 550 24-mo 2,835 10.6 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 3,348 -6.4 down 2,901 2,976 3,358 120-mo 2,927 7.1 up 2,886 2,855 3,100

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/6)

(07/2/14)

Closingprice

5,679


0100200300400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

3,065(9/21)

3,195(11/19)

2,713(11/2)

2,470(7/6)

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

3,410(10/1)

1,260(88/7)

840(92/4)

980(94/6)

2,765(98/7)

2,940(99/4)

2,960(01/8)

2,995(02/5)

4,940(07/2)

2,470(10/7)

1,643(08/12)

570(91/1)

550(92/7)

565(95/6)

1,435(98/10)

1,690(00/6) 1,545

(01/9)

1,785(03/4)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(5)

3

(3)

(4)

5

2

1

(A)

(C)

I

II4

500

5,0004,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

1,000

(1)(B)

Source: Nomura


4,940(07/2)2,940

(99/4)1,260(88/7) 1,643

(08/12)

550(92/7)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

2,000

3,000

500

5,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 2.1 22 18 0.7 4 15 Feb 22 19 2.5 22 19 1.9 1 2 Mar 25 16 2.7 17 24 0.8 2 4 Apr 26 15 3.7 23 18 2.3 5 2 May 16 25 -1.4 15 26 -1.7 3 1 Jun 24 17 2.4 21 20 1.9 4 2 Jul 25 16 1.9 19 22 2.0 3 3 Aug 17 24 -1.7 19 22 -1.2 3 1 Sep 19 22 -1.4 22 19 -0.3 2 2 Oct 17 24 -0.6 22 19 0.3 3 2 Nov 21 20 0.5 18 23 0.2 2 3 Dec 28 13 5.4 26 15 3.6 9 4 Jan-Mar 26 14 7.1 21 19 3.1 7 21 Apr-Jun 24 17 4.6 21 20 2.3 12 5 Jul-Sep 20 21 -1.4 20 21 0.4 8 6 Oct-Dec 24 17 5.4 23 18 4.2 14 9 Jan-Dec 28 12 18.3 23 17 10.5 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Canon [7751] (¥4,085) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently in upward subwave 3 of upward wave 1.

• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of June 2007 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥4,520, or even ¥4,780, a 50% retracement of the decline from the June 2007 high of ¥7,450 to the March 2009 low of ¥2,115.

• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) forming a dead cross. We expect a near-term temporary correction.



different ranges

01,0002,0003,0004,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,750(09/9/16)

5,820(08/6/2)

6,013(06/5/2)

4,087(05/7/20)3,880

(04/6/17)

4,140(03/9/17)

7,450(07/6/25)

4,520(10/4/5)

3,205(10/7/1)

3,180(09/11/27)

2,115(09/3/9)

4,847(06/6/14)

3,587(05/8/15)3,273

(04/8/16)3,080(03/11/19)

2,607(03/3/11)

4,100(08/3/17)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

0.0%


(5)

23.6%

(yy/m/d)(C)

(B)

(A)

1

2

3(1)

-8

-40

4

8(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

708090

100110120130140


-8-40

48

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)Long margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Short margin bal (green bar, minus)

Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 1.30 Ratio (x)5-day 4,074 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.62 0.80 25-day 3,976 2.7 up I II III75-day 3,813 7.1 up High 100% 7,450 7,450 200-day 3,839 6.4 up 76.4% 6,191 5,881 5-wk 4,030 1.4 up 61.8% 5,412 4,910 13-wk 3,913 4.4 up 50.0% 4,783 4,125 26-wk 3,739 9.2 up 38.2% 4,153 3,340 52-wk 3,836 6.5 up 23.6% 3,374 2,369 12-mo 3,819 7.0 up Low 0.0% 2,115 800 24-mo 3,518 16.1 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,694 -13.0 down 3,746 3,973 4,833 120-mo 4,015 1.7 up 3,690 3,710 4,425

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/4/5)

(10/7/1)

(07/6/25)

Closingprice

5,448


0200400600800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

4,075(11/19)3,995

(9/30)3,875(8/3)

3,205(7/1)

3,590(10/27)

3,385(8/27)

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

7,450(07/6)

4,140(03/9)3,747

(00/7)

2,547(97/8)

1,213(94/6)

1,360(89/10)

4,520(10/4)

3,205(10/7)

2,115(09/3)

3,587(05/8)

2,607(03/3)2,100

(01/9)

1,287(98/10)

820(95/5)

800(92/7)

800(90/11)

413(87/4)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(5)

(2)

(1)

(4)

(3) (1)

I

II(A)

(C)

(B)

1,000

6,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

8,000

500

Source: Nomura


7,450(07/6)

3,747(00/7)

1,360(89/10)909

(85/3)

2,115(09/3)1,287

(98/10)820(95/5)

413(87/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

5,000

2,000

500

8,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 24 16 -0.1 16 24 -1.5 3 10 Feb 26 15 1.1 22 19 0.5 2 4 Mar 27 14 2.2 24 17 0.4 1 5 Apr 32 9 4.6 24 17 3.2 4 2 May 22 19 0.6 20 21 0.3 2 1 Jun 21 20 0.4 22 19 -0.0 6 1 Jul 16 25 -0.6 14 27 -0.7 2 5 Aug 20 21 -0.8 18 23 -0.3 4 2 Sep 23 18 0.9 26 15 2.1 1 2 Oct 19 22 -0.4 22 19 0.6 4 4 Nov 24 17 1.5 22 19 1.2 2 1 Dec 27 14 3.2 25 16 1.5 10 4 Jan-Mar 24 16 3.5 23 17 -0.0 6 19 Apr-Jun 26 15 5.9 25 16 3.5 12 4 Jul-Sep 19 22 -0.5 20 21 1.2 7 9 Oct-Dec 26 15 4.4 23 18 3.2 16 9 Jan-Dec 26 14 14.2 25 15 8.7 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Nintendo [7974] (¥23,520 OSE) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the December 2009 low of ¥20,140 and the

October 2010 low of ¥20,180. • It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of November 2007 and April 2010. The

TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is also clearly bottoming by forming a golden cross. We expect the rebound to gain further momentum if the TOPIX-relative stock price manages to break out above the downward channel since 2008.

• We now expect the stock to test a rebound to around the April 2010 high of ¥32,950, the medium-term double bottom’s neckline, and close to a 23.6% retracement of the decline from the November 2007 high of ¥73,200 to the December 2009 low of ¥20,140.



different ranges

02,0004,000

6,0008,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

36,850(08/12/11) 32,950

(10/4/5)

61,800(07/7/26)

36,050(07/2/1)

13,560(04/10/4)

73,200(07/11/1)

63,900(08/6/26)

20,180(10/10/13)

20,140(09/12/4)

29,480(07/2/28)

7,970(03/5/23)

11,110(05/3/24)

45,600(08/2/6)

21,600(08/10/28)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)



100%

76.4%

0.0%

50.0%

23.6%

61.8%

38.2%

(5)

(4)

2

1

3

1

5

(yy/m/d)

4

2

-15-10-505

101520

(%)Weekly MACD (12, 26, 9）(relat iv e price basis)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

0100200300

400


-10123

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.71 Ratio (x)5-day 23,452 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.23 3.06 25-day 21,871 7.5 up I II III75-day 22,253 5.7 up High 100% 73,200 73,200 73,200 200-day 25,226 -6.8 down 76.4% 60,678 57,806 56,980 5-wk 22,282 5.6 up 61.8% 52,931 48,282 46,945 13-wk 21,922 7.3 up 50.0% 46,670 40,585 38,835 26-wk 23,305 0.9 down 38.2% 40,409 32,888 30,725 52-wk 25,013 -6.0 up 23.6% 32,662 23,364 20,690 12-mo 25,096 -6.3 up Low 0.0% 20,140 7,970 4,470 24-mo 25,221 -6.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 34,047 -30.9 up 22,590 27,475 45,075 120-mo 23,993 -2.0 up 21,865 26,545 42,155

3,332


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/4/5)

(10/10/13)

(07/11/1)

Closingprice

0200400600800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

25,000(9/29)

20,180(10/13)

21,960(8/12)

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

13,560(04/10)

24,900(01/6)

26,400(00/2)

14,300(98/7)

8,700(96/1)

25,416(90/8)

5,535(86/12)

73,200(07/11)

32,950(10/4)

20,180(10/10)

11,110(05/3)

7,970(03/5)

12,970(01/9)

8,980(98/10)

4,470(95/6)

6,000(93/11)

8,500(92/8)

2,913(87/11)

20,140(09/12)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(5)

(3)

(4)

I

IIIII

3,000

30,000

20,000

40,000

10,000

5,000

80,00060,000

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Aug 1970)

73,200(07/11)

26,400(00/2)

25,416(90/8)

20,140(09/12)7,970

(03/5)4,470(95/6)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

300

30,000

10,000

3,000

80,000

100

1,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 24 16 4.9 23 17 3.4 8 10 Feb 18 22 -0.2 13 27 -0.5 3 1 Mar 23 17 2.5 21 19 0.8 1 7 Apr 20 20 2.4 20 20 0.8 2 3 May 18 22 3.5 17 23 3.2 1 1 Jun 25 15 5.6 26 14 5.2 3 2 Jul 20 20 1.6 20 20 1.7 3 1 Aug 15 26 -0.8 16 25 -0.3 3 2 Sep 15 26 -1.1 18 23 -0.0 0 3 Oct 18 23 -1.0 21 20 -0.2 1 5 Nov 30 11 5.3 28 13 4.9 8 4 Dec 24 17 1.3 22 19 -0.2 8 2 Jan-Mar 19 21 8.2 17 23 5.0 12 18 Apr-Jun 27 13 12.4 24 16 9.6 6 6 Jul-Sep 18 22 -0.3 15 25 1.2 6 6 Oct-Dec 23 18 4.8 20 21 4.0 17 11 Jan-Dec 25 15 26.9 23 17 22.1 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Mitsui & Co [8031] (¥1,379) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently at the start of upward subwave 3 of upward wave 3.

• It recently broke through its medium-term resistance line linking the highs of October 2007 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the April 2010 high of ¥1,665, and after that ¥1,918 or a 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2007 high of ¥3,180 to the November 2008 low of ¥656.

• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have recently started weakening, with growth peaking out in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

1,665(10/4/12)

2,920(07/7/24)

1,841(06/4/20)

1,079(05/3/2)

1,021(04/4/13)

3,180(07/10/29)

2,760(08/5/19)

1,360(09/6/2)

995(10/7/6)

1,408(06/10/5)

901(05/5/17)770

(04/5/17)539

(03/5/21)

1,681(08/1/22)

1,970(07/8/17)

656(08/11/21)

1,015(09/7/13)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)



100%

23.6%

38.2%

0.0%

61.8%

76.4%

50.0%

1


(98/10/1)

(1)

(2)

2

(yy/m/d)

(3)3

-18-12-606

12(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50100150200250300350


-100

10203040

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 1,311 5.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 14.4 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.90 YTD high 1,665 -17.2 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 1.22 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 995 38.6 RSI (25) 67.2 62.7 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 66.7 75.0 Historical high 3,180 -56.6 Stoch-fast (13,9) 69.2 84.7 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 65.1 84.6

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 9.81 Ratio (x)5-day 1,355 1.7 up Short margin (mn shs) 2.93 3.35 25-day 1,328 3.9 up I II III75-day 1,258 9.6 up High 100% 3,180 3,180 3,180 200-day 1,295 6.5 up 76.4% 2,584 2,543 2,553 5-wk 1,339 3.0 up 61.8% 2,216 2,149 2,166 13-wk 1,300 6.1 up 50.0% 1,918 1,830 1,853 26-wk 1,217 13.3 up 38.2% 1,620 1,511 1,539 52-wk 1,307 5.5 up 23.6% 1,252 1,117 1,152 12-mo 1,288 7.1 up Low 0.0% 656 480 525 24-mo 1,207 14.2 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 1,664 -17.1 down 1,280 1,348 1,931 120-mo 1,247 10.6 up 1,222 1,340 1,813

2,522


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/6)

(07/10/29)

Closingprice

0

200

400

600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

1,216(8/10)

1,367(10/14)

995(7/6)

1,222(11/2)

1,076(9/1)

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1,665(10/4)

1,841(06/4)

1,021(04/4)931

(01/8)

1,019(99/4)

1,140(97/7)

885(94/8)

880(91/10)

1,410(90/1)

922(87/5)

3,180(07/10)

995(10/7)

1,408(06/10)

525(02/11)480

(98/10)

608(95/3)

495(92/6)

604(90/10)

597(88/1)

656(08/11)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(5)

(C)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(B)

(A)

I

III

II

700

1,000

300

3,000

2,000

1,500

500

Source: Nomura


1,410(90/1) 1,140

(97/7)

3,180(07/10)

656(08/11)495

(92/6)480

(98/10)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

3,000

2,000

500

300

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 22 18 1.4 21 19 -0.1 7 10 Feb 21 20 1.0 21 20 0.3 0 2 Mar 27 14 3.4 23 18 1.4 3 4 Apr 21 20 1.2 19 22 -0.3 6 3 May 16 25 -0.4 16 25 -0.8 6 2 Jun 21 20 0.8 22 19 0.2 1 2 Jul 21 20 1.2 23 18 1.2 1 1 Aug 17 24 0.1 18 23 0.5 3 2 Sep 20 21 -0.5 18 23 0.6 2 1 Oct 21 20 -0.3 23 18 0.6 5 6 Nov 22 19 1.3 18 23 0.9 0 4 Dec 24 17 2.9 21 20 1.1 7 4 Jan-Mar 27 13 5.8 21 19 1.4 10 16 Apr-Jun 23 18 1.3 22 19 -0.9 13 7 Jul-Sep 21 20 1.2 20 21 2.2 6 4 Oct-Dec 22 19 4.2 23 18 3.0 12 14 Jan-Dec 25 15 13.3 24 16 4.1 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Mitsubishi Corp [8058] (¥2,179) • The wave pattern suggests that the stock is currently at the start of upward subwave 3 of 3rd upward wave 3.

• It recently broke through the medium-term resistance line linking the highs of May 2008 and April 2010. We think the stock will next test the January 2010 high of ¥2,542, and after that ¥2,794 or a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the May 2008 high of ¥3,950 to the November 2008 low of ¥923.

• However, the stock’s upward momentum appears to have weakened slightly, with growth recently slowing in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week). We expect a near-term temporary correction.



different ranges

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

2,542(10/1/15)

2,035(09/6/12)

3,950(08/5/20) 3,810

(07/10/15)

1,283(04/4/14)

1,490(05/3/22)

2,940(06/4/21)

1,784(10/9/1)

923(08/11/21)

2,245(08/1/22)

936(04/5/10) 678

(03/4/30)

1,313(05/4/18)

1,984(06/11/21)

1,552(09/7/13)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)



50.0%

0.0%

100%

23.6%

76.4%

38.2%

61.8%


(98/10/9)

1

(1)

(2)(yy/m/d)

2

(3)

3

-15-10-505

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50100150200250300350


-100

102030

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.03 Ratio (x)5-day 2,168 0.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 3.29 2.14 25-day 2,116 3.0 up I II III75-day 1,999 9.0 up High 100% 3,950 3,950 3,950 200-day 2,069 5.3 down 76.4% 3,236 3,154 3,178 5-wk 2,137 2.0 up 61.8% 2,794 2,662 2,700 13-wk 2,050 6.3 up 50.0% 2,437 2,264 2,314 26-wk 1,972 10.5 up 38.2% 2,079 1,865 1,928 52-wk 2,107 3.4 down 23.6% 1,637 1,373 1,450 12-mo 2,075 5.0 down Low 0.0% 923 577 678 24-mo 1,899 14.8 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,393 -8.9 down 1,988 2,147 2,464 120-mo 1,753 24.3 up 1,952 2,047 2,437

Closingprice

3,698

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/9/1)

(08/5/20)


0

200

400

600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,119(10/14)

1,918(11/1)

1,784(9/1)

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2,542(10/1)

1,660(87/5)

2,030(89/12)

1,450(91/10) 1,330

(94/11)

1,500(96/5)

1,450(97/6)

1,108(01/8)

1,245(03/10)

2,940(06/4)

3,950(08/5)

1,784(10/9)

941(87/12)

1,000(90/10)

813(93/2)

890(95/6)

950(97/1)

577(98/10)

693(01/3)

678(03/4)

936(04/5)

1,984(06/11)

923(08/11)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(5)

(C)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(B)

(A)

I

III

II

800

2,500

1,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,500

1,200

500

Source: Nomura


766(79/11)

2,030(89/12)

3,950(08/5)

427(82/8)

577(98/10)

923(08/11)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

100

3,000

2,000

500

4,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.9 18 22 -0.6 10 10 Feb 20 21 0.8 20 21 0.2 1 2 Mar 23 18 3.0 20 21 1.0 2 2 Apr 23 18 1.4 20 21 -0.0 3 3 May 17 24 0.3 18 23 -0.0 5 3 Jun 22 19 0.5 24 17 -0.0 2 2 Jul 22 19 1.1 25 16 1.1 0 1 Aug 19 22 0.1 18 23 0.5 3 3 Sep 25 16 2.3 27 14 3.4 1 4 Oct 23 18 -1.2 18 23 -0.4 5 4 Nov 23 18 2.1 23 18 1.7 2 5 Dec 23 18 2.1 18 23 0.4 7 2 Jan-Mar 25 15 5.0 18 22 0.7 13 14 Apr-Jun 23 18 2.3 20 21 -0.1 10 8 Jul-Sep 24 17 3.8 25 16 5.0 4 8 Oct-Dec 22 19 3.0 22 19 1.7 14 11 Jan-Dec 23 17 17.3 19 21 7.0 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [8306] (¥402) • The recent November 2010 low of ¥364 appears to be forming a medium-term double bottom with the March 2009 low

of ¥377, and forming a long-term double bottom with the April 2003 low of ¥351. The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began with the April 2006 high of ¥1,950.

• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of May 2009 and April 2010. The decline in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) also shows signs of ending. Bottoming momentum is gradually growing.

• We think the share price’s initial target is the April 2010 high of ¥520, and we next expect it to test the May 2009 high of ¥699.



different ranges

02,0004,0006,0008,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

929(03/10/15)

1,230(04/7/15)

1,060(05/1/7)

1,700(05/11/7)

1,950(06/4/7)

1,660(06/8/21)

1,252(07/12/11) 1,173

(08/4/30)

699(09/5/11)

520(10/4/15)

364(10/11/1)

1,370(06/6/14)

873(05/5/18)

858(04/10/25)

672(03/11/11)

351(03/4/28)

881(07/11/12) 782

(08/3/17)

377(09/3/10)

437(09/12/15)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


0.0%


50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

100%

23.6%

38.2%

1

2

3 (yy/m/d)

4

5

-10-505

1015(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50

75100

125


-100-50

050

100150200

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura





(¥) Prev yr-end 452 -11.1 ROE (forecast) (%) 5.7 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.98 YTD high 520 -22.7 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.99 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 364 10.4 RSI (25) 66.4 46.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 41.7 50.0 Historical high 1,950 -79.4 Stoch-fast (13,9) 43.1 38.9 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 46.8 36.0

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 98.1 Ratio (x)5-day 401 0.3 up Short margin (mn shs) 6.7 14.74 25-day 395 1.7 up I II III75-day 398 1.0 down High 100% 1,950 1,950 200-day 430 -6.6 down 76.4% 1,576 1,573 5-wk 402 -0.0 up 61.8% 1,344 1,339 13-wk 396 1.6 down 50.0% 1,157 1,151 26-wk 405 -0.8 down 38.2% 970 962 52-wk 437 -8.0 down 23.6% 738 728 12-mo 428 -6.1 down Low 0.0% 364 351 24-mo 474 -15.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 933 -56.9 down 400 535 1,220 120-mo N/A N/A N/A 382 464 920

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/11/1)

(06/4/7)

Closingprice

5,689


0200400600800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

420(11/19)

440(7/29)

364(11/1)

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

699(09/5)

1,173(08/4)

1,950(06/4)

1,230(04/7)1,060

(02/6)

1,350(01/5)

364(10/11)

377(09/3)

782(08/3)

873(05/5)

351(03/4)

688(02/2)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

I

II

1,500

1,200

1,000

800

500

300

1,8002,000

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since May 2001)

1,950(06/4)

1,350(01/5)

364(10/11)

351(03/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,200

300

1,500

1,000

2,000

500

800

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 2 7 -2.7 4 5 -0.5 1 0 Feb 4 5 -3.3 2 7 -3.6 0 1 Mar 4 5 0.3 2 7 -1.5 0 1 Apr 4 5 3.7 5 4 1.3 3 1 May 4 6 -0.2 6 4 -0.0 2 1 Jun 5 5 -1.1 4 6 -1.3 1 0 Jul 5 5 -0.7 6 4 0.9 1 0 Aug 5 5 1.8 5 5 2.4 0 0 Sep 4 6 0.1 4 6 1.8 0 0 Oct 3 7 -3.0 3 7 -1.1 1 0 Nov 5 5 -1.2 5 5 -0.8 1 3 Dec 6 4 0.2 3 7 -2.1 0 3 Jan-Mar 3 6 -5.3 3 6 -5.4 1 2 Apr-Jun 6 3 3.4 5 4 0.7 6 2 Jul-Sep 3 7 2.1 5 5 5.3 1 0 Oct-Dec 5 5 -3.6 3 7 -3.7 2 6 Jan-Dec 3 6 -3.6 3 6 -6.1 10 10


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group [8316] (¥2,620) • The stock appears to be forming a medium-term triple bottom between the March 2009 low of ¥2,585, the January

2010 low of ¥2,591, and the November 2010 low of ¥2,325. The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began with the April 2006 high of ¥13,900.

• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of June 2009 and April 2010. The decline in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) also shows signs of ending. Bottoming momentum is gradually growing.

• We think the share price’s initial target is the April 2010 high of ¥3,355, and we next expect it to test the June 2009 high of ¥4,520.



different ranges

02,0004,0006,0008,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

3,355(10/4/15)

6,760(03/10/20)

8,540(04/4/14)

7,540(05/3/14)

13,900(06/4/11) 13,500

(06/9/1)

12,100(07/6/12)

9,640(08/6/6)

4,520(09/6/12)

2,325(10/11/2)

2,591(10/1/5)

10,100(07/3/19)

1,620(03/4/4)

4,390(03/11/18)

5,990(04/8/16)

6,590(05/5/17)

10,600(06/6/14)

6,330(08/3/17)

2,585(09/3/10)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

38.2%

76.4%

50.0%

61.8%

23.6%


2

1

3 (yy/m/d)

Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank

4

5

-15-10-505

1015

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

406080

100120140160180200


-20-10

0102030

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 12.56 Ratio (x)5-day 2,620 0.0 up Short margin (mn shs) 2.07 6.07 25-day 2,546 2.9 up I II III75-day 2,517 4.1 down High 100% 13,900 13,900 40,520 200-day 2,704 -3.1 down 76.4% 11,168 11,002 31,340 5-wk 2,596 0.9 up 61.8% 9,478 9,209 25,660 13-wk 2,518 4.0 up 50.0% 8,113 7,760 21,070 26-wk 2,555 2.5 down 38.2% 6,747 6,311 16,480 52-wk 2,735 -4.2 down 23.6% 5,057 4,518 10,800 12-mo 2,704 -3.1 down Low 0.0% 2,325 1,620 1,620 24-mo 3,064 -14.5 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 7,160 -63.4 down 2,508 3,448 8,525 120-mo 7,009 -62.6 down 2,444 2,954 7,103

3,705


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/11/2)

(87/4/15)

Closingprice

0200400600800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,685(11/19)

2,743(8/3)

2,325(11/2)

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)

25-day mov avg


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

13,900(06/4)

8,540(04/4)7,660

(02/6)

19,020(99/8)

23,200(95/12)

24,800(93/8)

26,400(91/11)

36,990(89/8)

40,520(87/4)

4,520(09/6)

2,325(10/11)

5,990(04/8)

1,620(03/4)

4,060(02/2)

8,600(98/10)

14,500(95/6)

11,100(92/4)

15,100(90/9)

23,260(87/11)

2,585(09/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

I

IIIII

Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank

2,000

20,00015,000

10,000

7,000

5,000

3,000

30,000

40,000

Source: Nomura


3,400(73/1)

40,520(87/4)

13,900(06/4)

2,325(10/11)1,550

(75/8)

3,890(84/1)

8,600(98/10)

1,620(03/4)

11,100(92/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)Data before 25 Nov 2002 are connected with the price of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank

(CY)

5,000

1,000

20,000

10,000

3,000

30,000

2,000

40,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 26 12 4.4 20 18 2.4 10 14 Feb 21 18 -0.1 17 22 -0.9 1 1 Mar 25 14 2.9 19 20 1.0 1 2 Apr 17 22 -0.5 8 31 -1.8 4 2 May 26 13 1.2 18 21 0.7 1 2 Jun 23 16 -0.0 14 25 -0.7 3 2 Jul 24 15 0.7 19 20 0.7 2 1 Aug 21 18 0.6 21 18 0.9 4 2 Sep 18 21 -0.7 18 21 0.5 0 2 Oct 20 19 -0.4 20 19 0.3 1 1 Nov 23 16 0.9 23 16 0.6 1 7 Dec 26 13 0.9 22 17 -0.6 11 3 Jan-Mar 21 17 8.2 16 22 3.0 12 17 Apr-Jun 18 21 0.5 14 25 -1.9 8 6 Jul-Sep 21 18 0.9 21 18 2.2 6 5 Oct-Dec 24 15 2.0 21 18 0.6 13 11 Jan-Dec 20 18 13.5 16 22 3.2 39 39


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Mizuho Financial Group [8411] (¥137) • The wave pattern suggests that the share price is at the end of a three-leg correction (waves 1-2-3-4-5) that began

with the April 2006 high of ¥1,030. The stock now looks likely to break above its diagonal triangle chart pattern since January 2009.

• The stock recently broke through the resistance line linking the highs of June 2009 and March 2010. The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) is also clearly bottoming by forming a golden cross.

• We think the share price’s initial target is the March 2010 high of ¥196, and we next expect it to test the June 2009 high of ¥274.



different ranges

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

196(10/3/26)

911(07/6/11)

1,030(06/4/19)

538(05/3/22)

560(04/4/14)

329(03/10/14)

606(08/6/3)

299(09/1/6) 274

(09/6/12)

110(10/10/4)

707(07/4/26)

469(05/4/21)

391(04/10/25)

206(03/11/18)

58.3(03/4/28)

360(08/3/18)

190(08/10/28)

166(09/3/10) 146

(09/11/27)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


Data before 5 Mar 2003 are connected with the price of Mizuho Holdings


100%

0.0%

76.4%

50.0%

23.6%

61.8%

38.2%

1

2

3

(yy/m/d)

4

5

-20-10

0

1020

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

0100200300400500


-300

0

300

600

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura




2010/12/8 137 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 5.9 Prev mo-end 133.0 3.0 P/B (x) 0.76

(¥) Prev yr-end 166.0 -17.5 ROE (forecast) (%) 12.9 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 4.37 YTD high 196 -30.1 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.92 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 110 24.5 RSI (25) 74.4 41.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 58.3 58.3 Historical high 1,030 -86.7 Stoch-fast (13,9) 72.2 54.1 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 73.8 48.3

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 324.3 Ratio (x)5-day 136 0.9 up Short margin (mn shs) 46.1 7.03 25-day 130 5.4 up I II III75-day 127 7.6 up High 100% 1,030 1,030 200-day 150 -9.0 down 76.4% 813 801 5-wk 134 2.4 up 61.8% 679 659 13-wk 126 8.3 up 50.0% 570 544 26-wk 133 3.0 down 38.2% 461 429 52-wk 155 -11.7 down 23.6% 327 288 12-mo 150 -8.9 down Low 0.0% 110 58 24-mo 175 -21.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 489 -72.0 down 124 209 610 120-mo 443 -69.1 down 119 173 486

Closingprice

2,952

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/10/4)

(06/4/19)


0500

1,0001,5002,000

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

139(11/22)

130(10/7)

145(8/3)

110(10/4)

113(10/29)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

274(09/6)

964(00/10)

382(02/3)

560(04/4)

1,030(06/4)

606(08/6)

110(10/10)

58.3(03/4)

198(02/2)

391(04/10)

360(08/3)

166(09/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

I

II


50

800

500

200

400

300

80100

1,000

150

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Oct 2000)

1,030(06/4)

964(00/10)

110(10/10)

58.3(03/4)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)


300

50

800

500

200

1,000

100

150

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 4 6 -2.8 3 7 -1.1 2 0 Feb 4 6 -2.3 4 6 -2.1 0 1 Mar 5 5 2.9 2 8 0.7 2 0 Apr 5 5 2.8 6 4 -0.1 3 2 May 6 4 1.3 7 3 1.4 0 0 Jun 3 7 0.6 3 7 0.3 1 0 Jul 4 6 -1.5 5 5 -0.1 0 0 Aug 5 5 2.5 5 5 2.9 0 0 Sep 3 7 4.2 5 5 5.7 0 0 Oct 3 8 -8.9 5 6 -7.0 2 2 Nov 5 6 -3.3 5 6 -2.8 0 4 Dec 6 5 0.4 5 6 -1.4 1 2 Jan-Mar 4 6 -1.9 4 6 -2.6 4 1 Apr-Jun 5 5 2.6 5 5 0.2 4 2 Jul-Sep 3 7 10.0 5 5 11.4 0 0 Oct-Dec 4 7 -9.2 4 7 -9.2 3 8 Jan-Dec 3 7 6.1 3 7 -0.6 11 11


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Tokio Marine Holdings [8766] (¥2,389) • The recent rise has taken share price through the medium-term resistance line running through highs of June 2007,

May 2008, and April 2010. We think the 29 October low of ¥2,223 marked a near-term bottom.

• We see potential for an attempt at the April 2010 high of ¥2,910 and the May 2009 high of ¥3,070. However, the TOPIX-relative stock price has recently been weak, and the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has again slipped into negative territory, pointing to lackluster share price momentum of late.

• We expect the stock to remain in a holding pattern for now, bounded on the upside by the line running through the May 2009 and April 2010 highs and on the downside by the line through the March 2009 and October 2010 lows.



different ranges

0

500

1,000

1,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

2,910(10/4/16)

3,070(09/5/11)

4,670(08/5/2)

2,980(03/10/14)

3,460(04/4/2) 3,340

(05/3/22)

4,880(06/4/11) 4,750

(06/10/25)

5,560(07/6/11)

2,223(10/10/29)

2,255(09/11/4)

1,756(09/3/10)

3,320(08/1/22)

1,412(03/3/11)

2,320(03/11/19)

2,640(04/10/25)

2,760(05/6/3)

3,620(06/6/8)

3,780(06/11/17)

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

76.4%


38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

23.6%

(1)

(2)

(3)

2

(yy/m/d)

1 3

-8-4048

12(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

80100120140160180200


-3-2-10123

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.72 Ratio (x)5-day 2,384 0.2 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.28 2.59 25-day 2,373 0.7 up I II III75-day 2,345 1.9 up High 100% 5,560 5,560 200-day 2,457 -2.8 down 76.4% 4,662 4,581 5-wk 2,393 -0.2 up 61.8% 4,107 3,975 13-wk 2,351 1.6 up 50.0% 3,658 3,486 26-wk 2,356 1.4 down 38.2% 3,209 2,997 52-wk 2,476 -3.5 down 23.6% 2,654 2,391 12-mo 2,432 -1.8 down Low 0.0% 1,756 1,412 24-mo 2,494 -4.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 3,493 -31.6 down 2,341 2,640 3,903 120-mo N/A N/A N/A 2,308 2,593 3,468

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/10/29)

(07/6/11)

Closingprice

1,922


050

100150200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,496(7/14) 2,455

(9/15)

2,510(11/19)2,458

(10/14)

2,223(10/29)

2,233(10/5)

2,232(9/1)

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

3,070(09/5)

4,670(08/5)

5,560(07/6)4,880

(06/4)

3,460(04/4)

2,280(02/5)

2,223(10/10)

1,756(09/3)

3,320(08/1)

2,760(05/6)

1,412(03/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)


(CY)

(1)

(2)

(3)

III

1,500

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,500

2,000

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since May 2002)

5,560(07/6)

1,756(09/3)1,412

(03/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

3,000

1,500

5,0004,000

2,500

6,000

2,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 3 5 0.3 5 3 2.2 0 0 Feb 5 3 0.9 4 4 1.3 0 0 Mar 4 4 1.1 5 3 -0.3 0 2 Apr 5 3 3.5 5 3 1.3 3 0 May 5 4 0.6 5 4 0.4 3 1 Jun 5 4 0.8 6 3 0.7 1 2 Jul 5 4 1.9 5 4 2.6 0 0 Aug 4 5 -0.9 5 4 -0.9 0 0 Sep 5 4 0.5 5 4 1.7 0 0 Oct 4 5 -1.4 6 3 1.5 1 1 Nov 4 5 -4.6 2 7 -4.2 1 1 Dec 7 2 3.2 4 5 0.3 0 2 Jan-Mar 5 3 2.2 5 3 3.0 0 2 Apr-Jun 5 3 5.1 4 4 1.9 7 3 Jul-Sep 2 7 2.0 5 4 3.4 0 0 Oct-Dec 5 4 -3.0 2 7 -3.0 2 4 Jan-Dec 4 4 7.5 4 4 4.4 9 9


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Mitsubishi Estate [8802] (¥1,433) • Wave formation suggests the stock is in the initial phase of a rally corresponding to the upward subwave 3 of

upward wave 3.

• We look for the stock to regain the April high of ¥1,723 and then make an attempt at ¥2,088, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥4,070 to the March 2009 low of ¥863.

• However, recent share price momentum has been weak, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross. We expect a brief correction in the near term.

• A substantive rally is unlikely until the TOPIX-relative stock price breaks out of its triangular holding pattern since October 2008 on the upside.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

1,723(10/4/30)

3,650(07/10/9)

4,070(07/5/10)

2,840(06/2/8)

1,399(05/3/22)

1,523(04/4/14)

3,160(08/4/28)

1,738(09/6/15)

1,153(10/7/22)

1,239(09/11/20)

2,630(07/9/10)

2,015(06/6/14)

1,121(05/6/10)

1,102(04/10/29)

657(03/4/14)

2,170(08/3/17)

863(09/3/9)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

76.4%


61.8%

(1)

(2)

1

(yy/m/d)

2

3

(3)

-10

-5

0

5

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

60

100

140

180

220


-8-4048

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 2.42 Ratio (x)5-day 1,441 0.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.59 1.52 25-day 1,451 -0.6 up I II III75-day 1,403 2.9 up High 100% 4,070 4,070 200-day 1,404 2.8 up 76.4% 3,313 3,265 5-wk 1,445 -0.1 down 61.8% 2,845 2,766 13-wk 1,438 0.4 up 50.0% 2,467 2,364 26-wk 1,355 6.5 up 38.2% 2,088 1,961 52-wk 1,422 1.5 down 23.6% 1,620 1,462 12-mo 1,403 2.8 down Low 0.0% 863 657 24-mo 1,391 3.8 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,214 -34.8 down 1,438 1,505 2,586 120-mo 1,675 -13.8 up 1,377 1,489 2,302


↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/7/22)

(07/5/10)

Closingprice

2,006

↑

0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

1,524(11/8)

1,541(10/14)

1,388(11/1)

1,153(7/22)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,070(07/5)

2,840(06/2)

1,523(04/4)

1,440(01/8)

1,860(97/10)

1,300(94/5)

1,680(91/2)

3,000(88/11)

3,520(87/4)

1,738(09/6)

1,153(10/7)

2,015(06/6)

1,102(04/10)

657(03/4)

792(02/2)

787(98/10)

880(95/3)

716(92/6)

995(90/9)

1,518(88/1)

863(08/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(2)

(5)

(C)

(1)

(B)

(A)

(3)

III

IV

III

800

2,000

4,000

3,0002,500

1,500

1,200

1,000

500

Source: Nomura


3,520(87/4)

1,860(97/10)

4,070(07/5)

456(72/12)

657(03/4)

716(92/6)

211(76/11)

863(09/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,500

1,000

3,0002,000

500

4,000

200

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 21 19 1.0 18 22 -0.4 7 12 Feb 22 19 1.3 24 17 0.7 2 3 Mar 26 15 4.3 22 19 2.1 3 5 Apr 23 18 0.8 18 23 -0.6 6 2 May 19 22 0.1 16 25 -0.3 4 1 Jun 23 18 -0.6 11 30 -1.3 2 4 Jul 21 20 -0.2 19 22 -0.2 1 1 Aug 25 16 2.0 24 17 2.6 1 1 Sep 21 20 1.0 24 17 2.2 1 1 Oct 20 21 -0.2 22 19 0.8 4 2 Nov 22 19 -0.3 20 21 -0.6 3 3 Dec 25 16 1.5 18 23 -0.2 7 6 Jan-Mar 24 16 6.9 20 20 2.1 12 20 Apr-Jun 17 24 -0.0 12 29 -2.3 12 7 Jul-Sep 21 20 3.3 26 15 4.9 3 3 Oct-Dec 23 18 1.2 20 21 -0.1 14 11 Jan-Dec 23 17 11.9 16 24 4.2 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



East Japan Railway [9020] (¥5,220) • The stock has formed a long-term triple bottom comprising the lows of ¥4,850 in November 2003, ¥4,710 in March

2009, and ¥4,790 in November 2010.

• The TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has recently shown signs of bottoming. We would expect a clearer turnaround in trend if the share price were to regain the November 2009 low of ¥5,550 or break through medium-term resistance running through highs of November 2007, August 2008, and April 2010.

• Once resistance is broken, we expect the stock to test the April 2010 high of ¥6,750, which is almost equivalent to a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April 2007 high of ¥10,100 and the March 2009 low of ¥4,710.



different ranges

0500

1,0001,5002,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

6,750(10/4/7)

10,100(07/4/16)

9,420(06/4/7) 8,970

(06/7/11)

6,290(04/8/5)

9,760(07/11/5)

8,800(08/8/5)

7,820(08/11/18)

6,530(09/9/24)

4,790(10/11/17)

4,710(09/3/12)

7,390(06/6/14)

5,290(05/4/18)

4,850(03/11/7)

7,810(06/12/5)

8,520(07/8/14)

7,420(08/3/17)

6,000(08/10/10) 5,550

(09/11/2)

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%


76.4%

50.0%

38.2%

61.8%

23.6%

C

(yy/m/d)

1

B

A

2

-8-4048

12(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

6080

100120

140


-1

0

1

2

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.78 Ratio (x)5-day 5,124 1.9 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.32 2.41 25-day 4,997 4.5 up I II III75-day 5,160 1.2 down High 100% 10,100 10,100 200-day 5,715 -8.7 down 76.4% 8,828 8,634 5-wk 5,038 3.6 up 61.8% 8,041 7,728 13-wk 5,049 3.4 down 50.0% 7,405 6,995 26-wk 5,375 -2.9 down 38.2% 6,769 6,262 52-wk 5,752 -9.3 down 23.6% 5,982 5,356 12-mo 5,670 -7.9 down Low 0.0% 4,710 3,890 24-mo 5,749 -9.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 7,421 -29.7 down 5,280 6,193 7,725 120-mo 6,662 -21.6 down 5,035 6,075 7,695

Closingprice

2,088

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/4/7)

(10/11/17)

(07/4/16)


050

100150200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

6,070(7/9)

5,650(9/3)

5,350(8/24)

4,790(11/17)

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

6,750(10/4)

8,800(08/8)

10,100(07/4)9,420

(06/4)

6,290(04/8)

7,420(01/8)

7,680(99/4)

6,030(96/6)

5,330(94/8)

6,140(93/10)

4,790(10/11)

4,710(09/3)

5,290(05/4)

4,850(03/11)

5,100(02/2)

4,300(00/2)

4,650(97/1)

4,070(95/2)3,890

(93/11)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

III

9,000

6,000

5,0004,500

4,000

3,500

7,000

8,000

10,00011,000

Source: Nomura


10,100(07/4)

7,680(99/4)

6,140(93/10)

4,710(09/3)

4,850(03/11)4,300

(00/2)3,890(93/11)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

5,000

3,500

7,000

6,000

4,500

8,000

4,000

10,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 8 9 -0.5 8 9 -0.3 4 6 Feb 8 9 -0.5 9 8 0.3 0 4 Mar 10 7 1.2 8 9 -0.1 0 1 Apr 13 4 3.3 9 8 1.1 4 1 May 8 9 0.1 9 8 1.0 0 0 Jun 11 6 1.0 9 8 0.3 1 0 Jul 6 11 -1.5 9 8 -0.4 0 0 Aug 11 6 0.8 11 6 2.3 3 0 Sep 10 7 0.5 10 7 2.0 1 0 Oct 5 12 -1.6 10 7 1.1 1 1 Nov 10 8 -0.5 11 7 -0.1 0 4 Dec 11 7 -0.2 8 10 -1.1 4 1 Jan-Mar 10 7 0.2 9 8 -0.4 4 11 Apr-Jun 13 4 4.4 9 8 2.3 5 1 Jul-Sep 7 10 -0.4 10 7 3.8 4 0 Oct-Dec 9 8 -1.1 8 9 0.7 5 6 Jan-Dec 9 8 2.6 10 7 7.4 18 18


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Nippon Telegraph and Telephone [9432] (¥3,815) • Wave formation suggests that a downward wave (C) bottomed with the March 2009 low of ¥3,390, but at present

we see no signs of a clear shift toward an uptrend. Recent share price momentum has also been poor, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross.

• We think a more concerted move toward a bottom would become evident if the share price were to clearly break above the medium-term resistance line running through the highs of February 2007 and August 2008.

• Once resistance is broken, we see the key targets as the September 2009 high of ¥4,370 and ¥4,690, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥6,800 to the March 2009 low of ¥3,390.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

6,800(07/2/13)

5,940(05/11/10)

6,340(04/4/8)

5,530(03/7/8)

5,630(07/12/27)

5,810(08/8/4)

5,040(08/12/22)

4,370(09/9/10)

4,075(10/1/15)

3,945(10/11/10)

3,940(03/2/3)

4,440(03/11/10) 4,180

(04/9/28) 4,190

(05/2/4)

4,980(06/4/16) 4,810

(07/8/17)

4,070(08/3/17)

3,710(08/10/28)

3,390(09/3/12)

3,590(09/11/10)

3,580(10/6/10)

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

23.6%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


38.2%

B

(yy/m/d)C (C)

-10-5

05

10(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

406080

100120140


-20

24

6

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.50 Ratio (x)5-day 3,791 0.6 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.20 2.48 25-day 3,791 0.6 up I II III75-day 3,728 2.3 up High 100% 6,800 19,400 31,176 200-day 3,761 1.4 down 76.4% 5,995 15,622 24,619 5-wk 3,827 -0.3 up 61.8% 5,497 13,284 20,562 13-wk 3,754 1.6 up 50.0% 5,095 11,395 17,283 26-wk 3,714 2.7 up 38.2% 4,693 9,506 14,004 52-wk 3,776 1.0 up 23.6% 4,195 7,168 9,948 12-mo 3,741 2.0 up Low 0.0% 3,390 3,390 3,390 24-mo 3,842 -0.7 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 4,732 -19.4 down 3,730 3,975 5,255 120-mo 4,944 -22.8 down 3,695 3,796 5,008

Closingprice

5,527

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/6/10)

(87/4/22)


0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

3,945(11/10)

3,860(9/21)

3,580(7/30)

3,605(10/28)

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

31,176(87/4)

10,686(93/4) 9,392

(95/9)

12,800(98/7)

19,400(99/11)

5,960(02/6)

6,340(04/4)

6,800(07/2) 5,810

(08/8)

3,580(10/6)

15,686(87/2)

7,059(90/10)

4,441(92/8)

6,657(95/2)

8,190(98/10)

3,750(02/2)

3,930(02/9)

4,180(04/9)

4,070(08/3) 3,390

(09/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(B)

B

(A)A

I

II

III

4,000

20,000

15,000

10,0008,000

5,000

3,000

25,00030,000

(C)C

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Mar 1987)

31,176(87/4)

19,400(99/11)

6,800(07/2)

3,750(02/2)

4,441(92/8) 3,390

(09/3)1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

10,000

3,000

30,000

20,000

5,000

8,000

4,000

15,000

25,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 8 15 -1.0 9 14 -1.0 6 3 Feb 12 11 -0.2 13 10 -0.1 2 6 Mar 13 11 2.6 13 11 1.4 1 3 Apr 12 12 0.0 6 18 -2.3 3 0 May 8 16 0.4 8 16 0.3 2 0 Jun 12 12 -0.5 15 9 0.1 1 1 Jul 11 13 1.3 14 10 1.6 2 0 Aug 10 14 -2.3 11 13 -1.3 2 1 Sep 7 17 -3.0 9 15 -1.2 1 1 Oct 9 15 -0.4 13 11 0.9 1 4 Nov 12 12 -0.7 13 11 -0.0 2 2 Dec 12 12 -0.2 8 16 -1.0 1 3 Jan-Mar 10 13 1.7 12 11 0.6 9 12 Apr-Jun 9 15 -0.1 11 13 -1.9 6 1 Jul-Sep 11 13 -4.0 13 11 -1.1 5 2 Oct-Dec 12 12 -1.6 12 12 -0.0 4 9 Jan-Dec 10 13 -2.7 12 11 -1.2 24 24


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



KDDI [9433] (¥487,000) • Wave formation indicates that the decline in the share price corresponding to downward wave (C) likely ended with

the most recent October 2010 low of ¥387,500. We think the switch to an uptrend will become clearer once resistance running through highs of September 2009, January 2010, and November 2010 is broken.

• Share price momentum has been firm of late, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) turning upward and returning to positive territory for the first time in around 18 months.

• Once resistance is broken, we see key targets as the September high of ¥575,000 and ¥648,000, a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May 2007 high of ¥1,070,000 to the October 2010 low of ¥387,500.



different ranges

0500

1,0001,5002,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

496.5(10/11/26)

652(08/12/9)

732(08/5/30)

947(07/10/15)

1,070(07/5/16)

675(03/10/14)

672(04/5/6)

707(05/11/7)

575(09/9/14)

553.0(10/1/15)

387.5(10/10/4)

419(09/3/18)

480(08/10/10)

567(08/3/18)

753(07/8/7)

339(03/3/12)

519(03/11/11) 479

(05/4/28)

560(06/3/7)

445(09/11/11)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥ '000)


100%

0.0%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


23.6%

(B)

(yy/m/d)(C)

-8-4048

12(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

50

100

150


-20-10

0102030

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

('000 shs)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura





(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 493.0 -1.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 11.3 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 2.66 YTD high 553.0 -11.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.64 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 387.5 25.7 RSI (25) 68.7 61.0 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 41.7 75.0 Historical high 1,560 -68.8 Stoch-fast (13,9) 61.8 83.8 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 66.4 76.5

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 2.06 Ratio (x)5-day 483.7 0.7 up Short margin (thou shs) 8.53 0.24 25-day 476.3 2.2 up I II III75-day 434.4 12.1 up High 100% 1,070 1,070 1,560 200-day 442.5 10.0 down 76.4% 909 865 1,240 5-wk 486.2 0.2 up 61.8% 809 739 1,042 13-wk 443.3 9.9 up 50.0% 729 637 882 26-wk 432.8 12.5 up 38.2% 648 534 721 52-wk 452.2 7.7 up 23.6% 549 408 523 12-mo 445.9 9.2 down Low 0.0% 388 203 203 24-mo 472.2 3.1 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 636.7 -23.5 down 418 491 775 120-mo 558.8 -12.9 down 416 459 691

2,184


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/10/4)

(99/11/12)

Closingprice

0

100

200

300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

450.0(7/14)

496.5(11/26)

387.5(10/4)

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥ '000)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

575(09/9)

1,070(07/5)

560(98/7)

675(03/10)

492(02/6)

1,560(99/11)

915(97/6)

968(96/6)

1,060(94/8)

387.5(10/10)

479(05/4)

297(02/11)

203(02/2)

287(98/10)

685(97/2)

279(97/12)

555(95/5)

441(93/11)

419(09/3)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥ '000)24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg

(CY)

(B)

(A)

I

II

III

200

1,000

800

600500

400

300

1,200

1,4001,600

(C)

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Oct 1993)

1,070(07/5)

1,560(99/11)

1,060(94/8)

387.5(10/10)

203(02/2)

279(97/12)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥ '000)

(CY)

800

200

1,2001,000

500

1,400

300

1,600up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lows

Jan 6 11 -0.9 7 10 -0.9 5 2 Feb 4 13 -4.0 6 11 -3.2 0 1 Mar 9 8 2.5 9 8 0.9 0 5 Apr 12 5 6.6 10 7 4.3 0 1 May 12 5 4.3 12 5 5.0 2 1 Jun 12 5 4.1 9 8 3.2 3 0 Jul 6 11 -2.8 6 11 -2.1 1 0 Aug 9 8 -2.3 10 7 -1.3 2 0 Sep 5 12 -2.2 6 11 -0.9 0 0 Oct 9 9 -0.4 10 8 1.9 3 2 Nov 7 11 1.6 10 8 1.9 2 4 Dec 11 7 0.9 8 10 -0.2 0 2 Jan-Mar 6 11 -1.9 6 11 -2.8 5 8 Apr-Jun 13 4 14.6 11 6 12.0 5 2 Jul-Sep 6 11 -6.6 8 9 -4.3 3 0 Oct-Dec 9 9 3.0 10 8 4.1 5 8 Jan-Dec 8 9 13.8 10 7 10.3 18 18


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



NTT Docomo [9437 (¥137,600) • Wave formation suggests that a downward wave (C) bottomed with the November 2009 low of ¥127,500, but at

present we see no signs of a clear shift toward an uptrend. Recent share price momentum has also been weak, with the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) indicating a dead cross.

• The share price has already broken through medium-term resistance running through highs of August 2003 and February 2007, and we think it needs to recover the April 2010 high of ¥154,400 to strengthen its momentum for a bottoming.

• Once this high is regained, we see the stock attempting a move toward ¥166,300–178,300, a 38.2–50% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥229,000 to the November 2009 low of ¥127,500.



different ranges

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

149.0(10/9/16)

154.4(10/4/20)

320(03/8/22)

216(05/10/5)

229(07/2/27)

191(07/12/25) 180.3

(09/1/5)

150.4(09/9/10)

133.2(10/10/21)

132.0(10/6/9)

201(03/3/11)

159(05/4/28)

162(06/6/15) 149

(07/10/25) 136.0(08/10/10)

129.5(09/3/12)

127.5(09/11/9)

100

150

200

250

300

350

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥ '000)


100%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

0.0%

23.6%


(B)

(C)(yy/m/d)

-10-505

1015

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

20

60

100


-1000

100200300400

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

('000 shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura





(¥ '000) Prev yr-end 129.6 6.2 ROE (forecast) (%) 10.3 Mkt cap (¥bn) Div yield (%) 3.77 YTD high 154.4 -10.9 β vs TOPIX (180-day) 0.49 （High→latest） Daily WeeklyYTD low 129.6 6.2 RSI (25) 55.4 51.6 （Low→latest） Psych line (12) 33.3 33.3 Historical high 914.0 -84.9 Stoch-fast (13,9) 37.2 17.6 （High→latest） Stoch-slow (3) 35.4 17.7

Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (thou shs) 33.82 Ratio (x)5-day 136.4 0.9 up Short margin (thou shs) 11.84 2.86 25-day 136.4 0.9 up I II II I75-day 139.2 -1.2 down High 100% 320.0 914.0 229.0 200-day 139.6 -1.4 down 76.4% 274.6 728.4 205.0 5-wk 137.1 0.4 up 61.8% 246.5 613.6 190.2 13-wk 138.0 -0.3 down 50.0% 223.8 520.8 178.3 26-wk 138.6 -0.7 up 38.2% 201.0 427.9 166.3 52-wk 138.8 -0.8 up 23.6% 172.9 313.1 151.5 12-mo 138.2 -0.5 up Low 0.0% 127.5 127.5 127.5 24-mo 139.3 -1.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 161.5 -14.8 down 141.1 142.6 182.5 120-mo 209.8 -34.4 down 137.2 141.0 170.0

6,026


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/1/5)

(00/2/28)

Closingprice

050

100150200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

140.1(11/10)

149.0(9/16)

134.8(7/22) 133.2

(10/21)

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥ '000)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

180.3(09/1)

914(00/2)

580(01/5)

373(02/4) 320

(03/8)

216(05/10)

229(07/2)

127.5(09/11)

148(08/3)

162(98/10)

228(01/9) 201

(02/9)159

(05/4)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥ '000)


(CY)

(B)

(A)

(C)

I

II

III

120

500

400

300

200

150

700

1,000

Source: Nomura


914(00/2)

162(98/10) 127.5

(09/11)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥ '000)

(CY)

400

150

700

500

300

1,000

200

120

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 5 7 -1.3 5 7 -0.0 4 2 Feb 3 9 0.5 4 8 0.7 2 0 Mar 8 4 3.3 7 5 0.8 0 1 Apr 6 6 0.8 4 8 -1.6 2 1 May 7 5 -2.0 3 9 -0.9 1 0 Jun 4 8 -1.1 2 10 -2.3 0 1 Jul 5 7 -1.5 8 4 -0.0 0 1 Aug 9 3 1.8 8 4 2.3 1 0 Sep 6 6 0.2 7 5 1.7 0 2 Oct 5 7 -0.2 5 7 2.2 1 3 Nov 7 6 3.7 8 5 3.0 0 1 Dec 7 6 -0.7 6 7 -2.2 2 1 Jan-Mar 7 5 2.3 7 5 1.1 6 3 Apr-Jun 4 8 -2.1 4 8 -4.6 3 2 Jul-Sep 8 4 0.8 8 4 4.0 1 3 Oct-Dec 6 6 3.5 4 8 3.8 3 5 Jan-Dec 4 8 15.3 5 7 8.4 13 13


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Tokyo Electric Power [9501] (¥1,984) • Wave formation suggests that the 28 October low of ¥1,853 marked the bottom for downward subwave 5 of

downward wave (C). The fall in the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) has also begun to ease of late.

• However, with the diagonal triangle price decline since February 2007 remaining intact, we think the stock is likely to continue searching for a firm bottom with a near-term rebound target of the upper resistance line running through February 2007 and September 2010 highs.

• A sudden accumulation of long margin positions could weigh on any rebound. Near term, the share price is unlikely to regain the 3 September 2010 high of ¥2,495 prior to its sharp fall.



different ranges

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

2,495(10/9/3)

2,504(10/1/25)

2,540(09/6/22)

3,080(08/11/25)

3,280(08/9/4)

3,230(06/3/2)

2,565(04/8/2)

2,565(03/9/19)

4,530(07/2/7)

3,220(07/12/7)

1,853(10/10/28)

2,230(10/5/27) 2,085

(09/11/10)

2,300(09/4/21)

2,215(08/10/10)

2,480(08/5/29)

2,830(06/6/14)

2,330(04/10/13) 2,200

(03/11/18)

2,680(07/11/13)

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

61.8%


0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

76.4%

(B)

(C)(yy/m/d)

2

5

1

4

3

-10-505

1015

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

6080

100120140160


-5

0

5

10

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.61 Ratio (x)5-day 1,970 0.7 up Short margin (mn shs) 0.97 7.83 25-day 1,926 3.0 up I II III75-day 2,111 -6.0 down High 100% 4,530 9,144 200-day 2,296 -13.6 down 76.4% 3,898 7,423 5-wk 1,938 2.4 up 61.8% 3,507 6,359 13-wk 2,003 -0.9 down 50.0% 3,192 5,498 26-wk 2,213 -10.4 down 38.2% 2,876 4,638 52-wk 2,308 -14.0 down 23.6% 2,485 3,574 12-mo 2,259 -12.2 down Low 0.0% 1,853 1,853 24-mo 2,352 -15.6 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 2,848 -30.3 down 2,174 2,355 3,373 120-mo 2,699 -26.5 down 2,001 2,313 3,060

3,188


↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/10/28)

(87/4/22)

Closingprice

0500

1,0001,5002,000

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,495(9/3)

1,853(10/28)

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2,504(10/1)

3,280(08/9)

9,144(87/4)

7,636(89/2)

4,218(91/2)

4,406(93/4)

2,880(96/5)

3,000(98/10)

3,110(99/11)

3,430(01/7)

4,530(07/2)

1,853(10/10)

2,085(09/11)

2,480(08/5)

2,178(92/8)

2,485(90/10)

4,638(88/1)

2,485(95/1)

2,080(97/4)

2,020(99/10)

2,005(02/11)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

(B)(B)

(A)

(5)

(C)

I

II6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

2,500

3,500

8,000

10,000

(X)

(A)(C)

Source: Nomura


1,000(73/1)

1,042(78/8)

9,144(87/4)

4,406(93/4) 3,430

(01/7)

4,530(07/2)

1,853(10/10)

2,178(92/8)

2,005(02/11)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

500

4,000

2,000

6,0008,000

3,000

10,000

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 17 23 -0.4 13 27 -1.7 9 12 Feb 25 16 1.8 20 21 1.2 4 4 Mar 16 25 -0.9 12 29 -2.8 2 1 Apr 20 21 -0.1 12 29 -1.3 2 2 May 24 17 1.6 21 20 1.4 1 1 Jun 23 18 -0.2 19 22 -0.7 1 1 Jul 19 22 0.5 19 22 0.5 1 1 Aug 26 15 0.7 22 19 1.3 2 3 Sep 17 24 -1.3 18 23 0.0 5 0 Oct 21 20 0.3 19 22 1.5 2 8 Nov 23 18 1.2 24 17 1.0 4 4 Dec 29 12 4.0 26 15 2.5 8 4 Jan-Mar 23 17 0.5 11 29 -3.3 15 17 Apr-Jun 25 16 1.2 16 25 -0.7 4 4 Jul-Sep 17 24 0.4 20 21 2.1 8 4 Oct-Dec 27 14 5.5 25 16 4.9 14 16 Jan-Dec 24 16 8.8 14 26 3.1 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Kansai Electric Power [9503] (¥2,050) • The share price appears to have hit a near-term bottom with the 15 October low of ¥1,919, but the TOPIX-relative

MACD (12–26 week) is back in negative territory, pointing to lackluster share price momentum of late.

• We think the stock is likely to continue searching for a firm bottom with an upside target of the medium-term resistance line running through highs of December 2007, September 2008, December 2008, and September 2010.

• In the medium term, we see the stock making an attempt at the December 2008 high of ¥2,675, almost a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the February 2007 high of ¥3,920 to the October 2008 low of ¥1,891, once it recovers the September high of ¥2,203.



different ranges

0

500

1,000

1,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

2,203(10/9/7)

2,225(09/7/13)2,030

(03/5/23)

2,675(08/12/4)

2,755(08/9/4)

2,925(07/12/6)

3,920(07/2/7)

2,880(06/5/9)

2,035(04/3/10)

1,919(10/10/15)

1,943(09/11/10)

2,400(06/6/14)

1,981(09/4/27)

2,455(07/10/22)

2,205(08/6/23)

1,891(08/10/10)1,802

(03/11/18)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)


100%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


（00/3/22）


(1)

(2)

(yy/m/d)

-10-505

1015

(%)


020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

60

100

140


-2

-1

0

1

2

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)


Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 0.35 Ratio (x)5-day 2,028 1.1 up Short margin (mn shs) 1.30 0.27 25-day 2,032 0.9 up I II III75-day 2,063 -0.7 down High 100% 3,920 3,920 5,572 200-day 2,096 -2.2 down 76.4% 3,441 3,339 4,601 5-wk 2,034 0.8 up 61.8% 3,145 2,980 4,000 13-wk 2,034 0.8 down 50.0% 2,906 2,689 3,515 26-wk 2,085 -1.7 down 38.2% 2,666 2,398 3,029 52-wk 2,095 -2.1 down 23.6% 2,370 2,039 2,429 12-mons 2,085 -1.7 down Low 0.0% 1,891 1,458 1,458 24-mons 2,119 -3.2 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mons 2,493 -17.8 down 2,061 2,104 2,906 120-mons 2,239 -8.4 up 2,016 2,084 2,614


↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs

Oscillators(10/9/7)

(10/10/15)

(89/2/3)

Closingprice

1,924

↑

0

50

100

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

2,203(9/7)

2,077(11/5)

1,919(10/15)

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,531(87/2)

5,569(89/2)

3,455(93/4)

2,580(96/5)

2,610(98/10)

2,180(01/7)

3,920(07/2)

1,919(10/10)

1,891(08/10)

1,641(02/11)1,458

(00/3)

2,000(97/10)

2,020(95/1)

2,000(92/8)

1,950(90/10)

2,348(88/1)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

I

(C)

(1)(B)

(A)

(5)

(2)

IIIII

5,000

4,000

3,000

1,500

2,500

2,000

6,000

Source: Nomura


5,569(89/2) 3,920

(07/2)

1,891(08/10)1,458

(00/3)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(¥)

(CY)

1,000

500

4,000

2,000

6,000

3,000

1,500

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 20 20 0.1 16 24 -1.2 8 13 Feb 24 17 1.1 20 21 0.6 5 2 Mar 15 26 -1.3 14 27 -3.2 2 2 Apr 19 22 0.0 10 31 -1.2 3 3 May 24 17 1.6 21 20 1.4 2 2 Jun 30 11 0.9 21 20 0.5 2 1 Jul 20 21 0.8 22 19 0.8 2 1 Aug 19 22 -0.4 20 21 0.3 1 2 Sep 16 25 -1.5 17 24 -0.2 3 1 Oct 20 21 0.8 20 21 1.9 3 7 Nov 23 18 0.9 19 22 0.8 1 3 Dec 29 12 3.9 21 20 2.3 9 4 Jan-Mar 20 20 -0.2 13 27 -3.8 15 17 Apr-Jun 25 16 2.4 19 22 0.7 7 6 Jul-Sep 16 25 -1.0 21 20 0.9 6 4 Oct-Dec 29 12 5.6 23 18 5.1 13 14 Jan-Dec 23 17 7.3 19 21 2.7 41 41


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Softbank [9984] (¥3,000) • Wave formation indicates that the stock is currently in a rally phase corresponding to upward wave 5. Recent gains

have taken the share price to ¥2,928, a 50% retracement of the decline from the December 2005 high of ¥5,220 to the October 2008 low of ¥636, and if the uptrend continues we think the stock will test ¥3,470, a 61.8% retracement of the same decline.

• That said, the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) looks close to hitting a ceiling, suggesting that the share price may have reached a near-term peak with the 8 December high of ¥3,085.

• The stock may face a temporary near-term correction if the TOPIX-relative MACD (12–26 week) shows further evidence of peaking. We expect the stock to trend in a range of ¥2,500–3,000 for now.



different ranges

0

5000

10000

15000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30

(¥)

3,085(10/12/8)

2,485(10/1/21)

5,220(05/12/30)

1,810(04/10/12)

1,920(04/4/5)

2,457(03/10/17)

3,190(07/3/22) 2,885

(07/11/2)

2,060(08/8/11)

1,672(08/12/24)

1,997(10/5/7)

1,894(06/7/19)

1,230(05/5/18)

420(03/4/14)

923(03/12/22)

1,103(04/5/17)

1,951(07/9/18)

1,653(08/3/18)

636(08/10/28)

1,103(09/2/25)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30


100%

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%


(yy/m/d)

3

4

5

1

2

(%)

-20-10

0102030


(%)

020406080

100RSI (25-day)

0100200300400500600700


(mn shs)

-60-30

0306090

120

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28 11/1/28 11/9/30


(yy/m/d)

Source: Nomura






Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 7.55 Ratio (x)5-day 3,014 -0.5 up Short margin (mn shs) 7.58 1.00 25-day 2,876 4.3 up I II III75-day 2,688 11.6 up High 100% 5,220 5,220 22,000 200-day 2,459 22.0 up 76.4% 4,138 4,053 16,873 5-wk 2,941 2.0 up 61.8% 3,469 3,331 13,701 13-wk 2,792 7.5 up 50.0% 2,928 2,748 11,138 26-wk 2,632 14.0 up 38.2% 2,387 2,164 8,574 52-wk 2,437 23.1 up 23.6% 1,718 1,443 5,403 12-mons 2,484 20.8 up Low 0.0% 636 276 276 24-mons 2,139 40.3 up Daily Weekly Monthly60-mons 2,270 32.2 down 2,633 2,245 2,928 120-mons 1,770 69.5 up 2,588 2,074 1,652


↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/5/7)

(00/2/15)

Closingprice

32,476

↑

0200

400600

800

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

(¥)3,085(12/8)

2,800(10/1)

2,629(7/28)

2,376(8/25)

2,507(11/2)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

10/7/1 10/8/13 10/9/28 10/11/11 10/12/27 11/2/10

25-day mov avg


(y y /m/d)

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


01000020000300004000050000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(¥)

5,220(05/12)

2,457(03/10)

22,000(00/2)

576(94/10)

1367(96/4)

3,190(07/3)

1,894(06/7)

1,230(05/5)

276(02/11)186

(97/11)

222(95/2)

636(08/10)

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

24-month mov avg60-month mov avg120-month mov avg1,000

6,000

20,000

4,000

10,000

2,000

500

200

15,000

30,000

I II

III

(CY)

Source: Nomura

5. Yearly candlestick chart (logarithmic) 6. Advances/declines (since Aug 1994)

(¥)

5,220(05/12)

22,000(00/2)

1,367(96/4)

636(08/10)

276(02/11)186

(97/11)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1,000

10,000

5,000

2,000

500

30,000

200

20,000

(CY)

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 10 6 7.7 9 7 8.7 2 4 Feb 9 7 0.9 9 7 1.4 3 2 Mar 8 8 5.3 8 8 3.0 2 0 Apr 7 9 -0.4 6 10 -2.8 2 0 May 7 9 -3.2 8 8 -2.1 0 2 Jun 8 8 7.8 8 8 6.5 0 0 Jul 8 8 1.2 8 8 1.3 0 2 Aug 7 10 4.7 7 10 5.4 1 0 Sep 9 8 3.8 11 6 4.9 0 1 Oct 8 9 -2.0 8 9 -0.1 3 1 Nov 8 9 7.8 10 7 6.7 1 2 Dec 7 10 3.6 8 9 2.7 3 3 Jan-Mar 10 6 12.8 9 7 11.3 7 6 Apr-Jun 6 10 6.0 6 10 3.0 2 2 Jul-Sep 8 8 11.5 8 8 11.2 1 3 Oct-Dec 9 8 11.0 8 9 10.1 7 6 Jan-Dec 8 8 104.4 10 6 69.5 17 17


Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Sample • Technical comments

•

• 1. Weekly candlestick chart (intraday basis)

Cumulative trading value for

dif ferent ranges

02,0004,0006,0008,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28

-6-30

36

(%)Weekly M AC D (12, 26, 9）(relative price bas is)

020406080

100(%)

RSI (25-day)

708090

100110120130


-10-505

1015

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28

(mn shs)

(yy/m/d)

Lo ng margin bal (red bar), Net margin bal (blue line)Sho rt margin bal (green bar, minus )

4 ,23 5(10/ 1/ 21)

4 ,19 0(09 /8 /10)

5,710(08 /6 /6 )

3 ,92 0(0 3/ 9/ 16 )

4,52 0(04 /7/ 14 )

6 ,950(0 6/ 4/ 21)

8,3 50(07/ 2/ 27) 7,88 0

(07/ 7/4 )

3,2 90(0 9/ 11/2 7)

2,58 5(0 8/ 12 /8 )

4 ,80 0(0 8/ 4/ 14 )

2,4 55(0 3/ 4/ 14 )

3,78 0(0 4/ 12 /1)

3,79 0(05/ 4/ 21)

5,43 0(06 /6 /14)

3,130(03 /10/ 31)

7,010(0 7/5/ 11)

6,130(07/ 8/ 17)

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

03/1/10 03/9/12 04/5/14 05/1/14 05/9/16 06/5/19 07/1/19 07/9/21 08/5/23 09/1/23 09/9/25 10/5/28

(¥)


0.0 %

38 .2%

61.8%

10 0%

76.4 %

50.0 %

23 .6%


(5)

(4) (A)

(B)

(yy/m/d)

A

B

(C)

（ Note8）

（Note 9）

（ Note5）

（Note 1）

（Note 4）

（ Note2）（ Note3）

（ Note6）

（ Note7）

Source: Nomura



Note: (1) Weekly candlestick charts are on an intraday basis. Vertical bars along the bottom of the chart indicate weekly cumulative trading value. (2) Wave count in analysis is based on the Elliott wave principle. The Elliott wave principle says market prices move in cycles of eight waves consisting of a five-wave uptrend (waves 1-2-3-4-5) and a three-wave downtrend (waves A-B-C). In a bull market, waves 1, 3, and 5 of the five-wave uptrend are impulse waves (stock rallies), while waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves (stock declines) in reaction to the previous waves; similarly, waves A and C of the three-wave downtrend are impulse waves (stock declines), while wave B is a corrective wave (stock rally) in reaction to the previous wave. Each wave has its own general characteristics:

Wave 1 is the first impulse wave of an uptrend. In the process of price consolidation, this wave is often seen as part of a rebound from a relatively low level. Of the five waves, this one is normally the shortest, but in rare cases, such as when prices form a major bottom, the wave can be very sharp.

Wave 2 is a corrective wave in reaction to wave 1 and often retraces most if not all of wave 1.

Wave 3 is the second impulse wave of the uptrend. It is normally the longest and sharpest wave. It exceeds the high of wave 1 and is marked by the highest trading volume. Wave 3 is never the shortest of the five waves and is the likeliest to include an extension.

Wave 4 is a corrective wave in reaction to wave 3 and the low always exceeds the high of wave 1. Wave 4 and wave 2 often take alternate forms (alternation rule).

Wave 5 is the third and final impulse wave of the uptrend; it normally is not as sharp an upward movement as wave 3. Volume begins to weaken during this wave but often picks up when prices near a peak. Many oscillator indicators may run counter to the direction of price movements (divergence phenomenon), warning of an impending peak.

Wave A is the first impulse wave of a downtrend. It is often mistakenly viewed as a temporary pullback from an uptrend.

Wave B is a corrective wave in reaction to wave A that often exhibits little trading volume. In some cases, the correction tests, or even exceeds, highs achieved before the downtrend began.

Wave C is the second and final impulse wave of the downtrend. When prices bottom during this wave, volume often increases substantially, as in a selling climax.

(The corrective downtrend with waves A-B-C is basically a two-leg correction, but in extended corrections, there can be double zigzag patterns (waves A1-B1-C1-X-A2-B2-C2) and triple zigzag patterns (waves A1-B1-C1-X-A2-B2-C2-X’-A3-B3-C3).)

(3) Target Fibonacci retracement levels in Exhibit 2 (price data and major chart points) are based on the golden ratio. The golden ratio is the relationship between 0.618 and 0.382 proposed by Italian mathematician Fibonacci. The ratio is observed in many places in nature and is used in markets to measure rallies and calculate resistance lines. Note that 0.236 is 0.618 x 0.382. (4) Horizontal bars on the side of the chart represent cumulative trading value at the corresponding share price levels during the period for which weekly candlesticks are shown. (5) The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku cloud chart) is a chart that shows key points for buying and selling stocks at a glance. It comprises five lines called tenkan-sen (conversion or turnaround line), kijun-sen (base or trigger line), senko (leading or momentum) span A, senko span B, and chiko (lagging) span. The shaded area between senko span A and senko span B shows the price resistance/support bands (the so-called “cloud”). The weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in the chart is made as follows. Tenkan-sen is the average of the high and low from the past nine weeks. Kijun-sen is the average of the high and low from the past 26 weeks. Senko span A is the average of the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen plotted 26 weeks forward. Senko span B is the average of the high and low from the past 52 weeks plotted 26 weeks forward. Chiko span is the day’s closing price plotted 26 weeks (including that day) in the past.

In general, (1) when the tenkan-sen exceeds the kijun-sen it signals a buy, and when it falls below the kijun-sen it signals a sell, (2) when the kijun-sen inflects up it signals a buy, and when it inflects down it signals a sell, and (3) when the share price is higher than the area between senko span A and senko span B (the cloud), the cloud represents a support band, and when it is lower, the cloud represents a resistance band. When the resistance band is thick, it is normally difficult to breach and when it is thin, it is easy to breach. Points where senko span A and senko span B intersect are viewed as transition days and are often turning points in the market. In the chart, tenkan-sen, kijun-sen, and chiko span are not displayed in the interest of making the chart easier to view. Senkospan A and senko span B are shown, with the shaded area representing the cloud.

(6) Relative price vs TOPIX is on a daily basis. The time-series is indexed with the first data point on the graph equal to 100. (7) The RSI, or relative strength index, indicates the magnitude of increases over a given period in the past (we use a 25-day period in the chart) as a percentage of all price movements in that period, and is calculated as follows: RSI (%) = (absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) / [(absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) + (absolute value of total magnitude of declines over period A)] x 100. The index ranges from 0% to 100%; when it is above 70% (or above 80%) the stock is said to be overbought, and when it falls below 30% (or below 20%) the stock is considered oversold. Divergence between the directions of the share price and the RSI is said to signal a turning point. (8) MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is the difference between 12-week and 26-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). In this report, MACD values are calculated from relative share prices and are not simple differences but divergence ratios. The nine-week EMA is called the signal line and the difference between MACD and the signal line is called a histogram (displayed at 3x to make the chart more visible). Trend analysis of MACD is done with attention to the direction, divergence, and interaction of the two EMAs. In general, when the leading MACD (thick line) breaks through the lagging signal line (thin line) from the bottom it signals a buy, and when the thick line breaks through the thin line from the top it signals a sell. The positioning in relation to the horizontal line at zero is also key. If both lines remain above zero after MACD breaks through the signal line from the bottom (signaling a buy), the veracity of the signal is greater and the magnitude of the trend can be measured by the formation. MACD can also be used to follow trends, with breakouts above/below a trendline indicating selling/buying points. As an oscillator (an indicator of the strength of market prices), MACD indicates a trend change when there is divergence between the share price and the MACD amid a major trend. In other words, if MACD starts falling amid an uptrend, the trend often comes to an end. MACD is useful for determining the peaks and valleys of cycles, but looking at crossovers at times other than when the indicator is peaking or bottoming is not very useful (the indicator often sends the wrong signal when used in times where the trend is not clear).




2010/6/25 3,135 Diff (%) P/E (forecast) (x) 34.9 Prev mo-end 3,280 -4.4 P/B (x) 1.04


Diff (%) Momentum Long margin (mn shs) 11.29 Ratio (x)5-day 3,224 -2.8 down Short margin (mn shs) 1.39 8.11 25-day 3,258 -3.8 down I II III75-day 3,499 -10.4 down High 100% 8,350 8,350 200-day 3,589 -12.7 down 76.4% 6,989 6,677 5-wk 3,247 -3.4 down 61.8% 6,148 5,642 13-wk 3,462 -9.5 down 50.0% 5,468 4,805 26-wk 3,547 -11.6 down 38.2% 4,787 3,968 52-wk 3,627 -13.6 down 23.6% 3,946 2,933 12-mo 3,598 -12.9 down Low 0.0% 2,585 1,260 24-mo 3,639 -13.8 down Daily Weekly Monthly60-mo 5,239 -40.2 down 3,575 3,675 6,215 120-mo 4,442 -29.4 down 3,521 3,470 5,870

↑

↓

Fib retrace

Key moving avgs


(10/6/25)

(07/2/27)

Closing price

10,809


（Note15）

（Note14）

（Note13）

（Note12）

（Note10）

（Note11）

（Note16）

0500

1,0001,5002,000

10/1/4 10/2/17 10/4/1 10/5/19 10/6/30 10/8/12

3,830(4/6)

4,235(1/21)

3,195(2/4)

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

10/1/4 10/2/17 10/4/1 10/5/19 10/6/30 10/8/12

(¥)


200-day mov avg

(yy/m/d)

（Note:17）

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4,2 35(10 /1)

8,3 50(07/ 2)6 ,950

(06 /4 )

4,520(04/ 7)

5,8 00(00 /4 )

4 ,03 0(97/ 5)

2 ,250(94 /6)

2,4 28(89 /10)

3 ,79 0(0 5/ 4)

2 ,455(03/ 4)

2 ,66 5(0 1/ 9)

2 ,530(9 8/ 10)

1,590(9 5/5)

1,2 60(9 2/3 )

2,585(0 8/12)

1,000

1,500

2,000

3,000

4,0005,0006,000

8,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


(CY)

A

B(5)

(4)

(3)

3

4

5

2

1

(A)

(B)

I

II

(C)

（Note18）

Source: Nomura


2 ,42 8(8 9/ 10 )

5,8 00(00 /4 )

8 ,350(0 7/2 )

2,4 55(0 3/ 4)

1,2 60(9 2/ 3)

2,58 5(0 8/ 12 )

10 0

2 00

500

1,0 00

2,0 00

5,00 08,0 00

19 70 19 75 198 0 198 5 19 90 199 5 20 00 2 00 5 2 010

(¥)

(CY)

（ Note19）

up down avg rtn up down avg rtn highs lowsJan 18 22 0.8 19 21 -0.5 4 10 Feb 17 24 0.4 17 24 -0.2 4 3 Mar 24 17 2.8 22 19 0.8 4 4 Apr 28 13 4.9 24 17 3.6 2 5 May 20 21 0.2 17 24 -0.0 4 1 Jun 24 17 2.3 25 16 1.7 3 2 Jul 16 24 -1.1 15 25 -1.1 3 3 Aug 23 17 -1.0 16 24 -0.6 2 1 Sep 21 19 -0.3 20 20 1.0 1 2 Oct 20 20 -0.1 22 18 0.9 3 1 Nov 18 22 -0.9 21 19 -1.0 1 2 Dec 27 13 4.7 25 15 3.0 10 7 Jan-Mar 22 18 4.3 21 19 0.3 12 17 Apr-Jun 28 13 7.6 25 16 5.2 9 8 Jul-Sep 17 23 -2.6 16 24 -0.9 6 6 Oct-Dec 25 15 3.9 22 18 2.9 14 10 Jan-Dec 25 15 15.8 24 16 7.7 41 41


（Note20）

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura



Note: (9) Long and short margin balances are the total of general and system margin balances on a stock’s representative exchange (ie, in case of stocks listed on more than one exchange, the exchange with largest transaction volume for the concerned stock). (10) Year-to-date high and low and historical high are on intraday basis. The “diff (%)” column shows latest closing price’s percent divergence from the stock’s year-to-date high and low and from its historical high. (11) An overview of key moving averages based on stock’s latest closing price. Here, “diff (%)” shows percent difference between stock’s latest closing price and each moving average. “Momentum” shows vector trend (up, down, flat) of moving averages (MAs) based on comparisons with recent data (previous day for daily MAs, previous week for weekly MAs, and previous month for monthly MAs). (12) Key stock valuations based on latest closing price. EPS and DPS estimates are Nikkei estimates for current fiscal year; BPS is actual value as of end of previous fiscal year (consolidated basis where available). (13) Oscillators are based on latest closing price. RSI is calculated on 25-day and 25-week bases. Psychological line is calculated on 12-day and 12-week bases. Stochastics-fast (STC.F) is shown on 13-, 9-day basis and 13-, 9-week basis. Stochastics-slow (STC.S) is shown on past 3-day and past 3-week bases. Calculation and special features of each oscillator are as follows: RSI (%) = (absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) / [(absolute value of total magnitude of increases over period A) + (absolute value of total magnitude of declines over period A)] x 100

• RSI ranges from 0% to 100%; above 70% (or above 80%) indicates overbought market, below 30% (or below 20%) indicates oversold market.

• Divergence between the directions of the share price and the RSI is said to signal a turning point. Psychological line (%) = number of days the share price has risen in period A / (number of days the share price has risen during period A + number of days the share price has fallen in period A) x 100

• Usually calculated on 12-day (or 12-week) basis. Days in which a share price does not change are counted as rises if the price rose during the previous day (week) and declines if the price fell during the previous day (week).

• Psychological line ranges from 0% to 100%; in general, above 75% (nine rises vs three declines) indicates the stock is overbought and under 25% (three rises vs nine declines) indicates the stock is oversold.

• Adding the magnitude of rises and declines to the psychological line calculation results in the RSI. Stochastics-fast (STC.F) (%) = %D line as defined below: %K line = [closing price - lowest price over period A / (highest price over period A - lowest price over period A)] x 100 %D line = [(sum of %K line numerators for certain number of past periods) / sum of %K line denominators for certain number of past periods)] x 100

• Because %K line is highly sensitive, technical analysis often uses two stochastics—a fast stochastic (STC.F) usually based on the %D line and a slow stochastic (STC.S) based on the %D line’s three-day moving average (or three-week moving average).

• Stochastic oscillators range from 0% to 100%; in general, 70% and higher (or 80% and higher) indicates the stock is overbought, 30% and lower (or 20% and lower) indicates the stock is oversold.

• When these stochastics are in the oversold zone, the STC.F rising above the STC.S is considered a buy signal. Conversely, when in the overbought zone, an STC.F falling below the STC.S is a sell signal.

• In addition, divergence in the directions of the share price and related stochastic oscillators is said to signal a turning point. (14) Margin balance data. Long and short margin balances are the total of general and system margin balances on a stock’s representative exchange (ie, in case of stocks listed on more than one exchange, the exchange with largest transaction volume for the concerned stock). Ratio (x) = margin balance ratio = long margin balance/short margin balance. (15) Fibonacci retracement targets are based on the golden ratio and other factors. They correspond to markings in the monthly candlestick charts (roman numerals I, II, III). (16) “Ichimoku chart points” shows upside and downside targets indicated by the resistance and support bands for clouds in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (daily, weekly and monthly bases). “Cloud upper” is the higher of the Ichimoku chart’s senko span A and senko span B, with the lower span representing the “cloud lower.” (17) Daily candlestick charts are on intraday basis. (18) Monthly candlestick charts are on intraday basis (logarithmic). Trading value is monthly total. (19) Yearly candlestick charts are on intraday basis (logarithmic). (20) The advances/declines chart shows the number of times the share price rose and fell in the specified time periods—monthly, quarterly, and annually—of the sample period. The “vs TOPIX” section shows performance relative to TOPIX. The “avg rtn” column shows the average percentage change in share price during the sample period. “No. of hi/lo” shows the number of times a stock reached a new year-to-date high or low price during the relevant month or quarter during the sample period.

69

Any Authors named on this report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated Analyst Certification Each research analyst identified herein certifies that all of the views expressed in this report by such analyst accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities and issuers. In addition, each research analyst identified on the cover page hereof hereby certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views that he or she has expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.

Important Disclosures Conflict-of-interest disclosures Important disclosures may be accessed through the following website: http://www.nomura.com/research/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx . If you have difficulty with this site or you do not have a password, please contact your Nomura Securities International, Inc. salesperson (1-877-865-5752) or email [email protected] for assistance. Online availability of research and additional conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Japanese Equity Research is available electronically for clients in the US on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG and THOMSON ONE ANALYTICS. For clients in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in Asia it is available on NOMURA.COM, REUTERS and BLOOMBERG. Important disclosures may be accessed through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page http://www.nomura.com/research or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email [email protected] for technical assistance. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research report in which their names appear. Distribution of ratings (Global) Nomura Global Equity Research has 1878 companies under coverage. 48% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 41% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 37% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 54% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 13% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 16% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 September 2010. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America for ratings published from 27 October 2008 The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to price target defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. STOCKS A rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'RS-Rating Suspended', indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks (accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page: http://www.nomura.com/research);Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published from 30 October 2008 and in Japan from 6 January 2009 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Price Target - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Price Target will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%.

70

A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'RS' or 'Rating Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan published prior to 6 January 2009 (and ratings in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America published prior to 27 October 2008) STOCKS A rating of '1' or 'Strong buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. A rating of '2' or 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of '3' or 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to either outperform or underperform the Benchmark by less than 5% over the next six months. A rating of '4' or 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of '5' or 'Sell', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. Stocks labeled 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in Nomura's regular research coverage. Nomura might not publish additional research reports concerning this company, and it undertakes no obligation to update the analysis, estimates, projections, conclusions or other information contained herein. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next six months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next six months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next six months. Benchmarks are as follows: Japan: TOPIX; United States: S&P 500, MSCI World Technology Hardware & Equipment; Europe, by sector - Hardware/Semiconductors: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Telecoms: FTSE W Europe Business Services; Business Services: FTSE W Europe; Auto & Components: FTSE W Europe Auto & Parts; Communications equipment: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Ecology Focus: Bloomberg World Energy Alternate Sources; Global Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published prior to 30 October 2008 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price)/Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation. A 'Strong buy' recommendation indicates that upside is more than 20%. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that upside is between 10% and 20%. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that upside or downside is less than 10%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%. A 'Sell' recommendation indicates that downside is more than 20%. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Price targets Price targets, if discussed, reflect in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any price target may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates. Disclaimers This publication contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura entity identified on the banner at the top or the bottom of page 1 herein and, if applicable, with the contributions of one or more Nomura entities whose employees and their respective affiliations are specified on page 1 herein or elsewhere identified in the publication. Affiliates and subsidiaries of Nomura Holdings, Inc. (collectively, the 'Nomura Group'), include: Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan; Nomura International plc, United Kingdom; Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NSI'), New York, NY; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Hong Kong; Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd., Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association ('KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet at http://dis.kofia.or.kr ); Nomura Singapore

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Ltd., Singapore (Registration number 197201440E, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore); Nomura Securities Singapore Pte Ltd., Singapore (Registration number 198702521E, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore); Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited; Nomura Australia Ltd., Australia (ABN 48 003 032 513), regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and holder of an Australian financial services licence number 246412; P.T. Nomura Indonesia, Indonesia; Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., Malaysia; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch, Taiwan; Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited, Mumbai, India (Registered Address: Ceejay House, Level 11, Plot F, Shivsagar Estate, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai- 400 018, India; SEBI Registration No: BSE INB011299030, NSE INB231299034, INF231299034, INE 231299034). 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Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a Nomura entity in your home jurisdiction if you want to use our services in effecting a transaction in the securities mentioned in this material. This publication has been approved for distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union as investment research by Nomura International plc ('NIPlc'), which is authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. It does not constitute a personal recommendation, as defined by the FSA, or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. It is intended only for investors who are 'eligible counterparties' or 'professional clients' as defined by the FSA, and may not, therefore, be redistributed to retail clients as defined by the FSA. 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Disclaimers required in Japan

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Investors in the financial products offered by Nomura Securities may incur fees and commissions specific to those products (for example, transactions involving Japanese equities are subject to a sales commission of up to 1.365% (tax included) of the transaction amount or a commission of ¥2,730 (tax included) for transactions of ¥200,000 or less, while transactions involving investment trusts are subject to various fees, such as sales commissions and trust fees, specific to each investment trust). In addition, all products carry the risk of losses owing to price fluctuations or other factors. Fees and risks vary by product. Please thoroughly read the written materials provided, such as documents delivered before making a contract, listed securities documents, or prospectuses. 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Margin transactions are subject to a sales commission of up to 1.365% (tax included) of the transaction amount (or a commission of ¥2,730 (tax included) for transactions of ¥200,000 or less), as well as management fees and rights handling fees. In addition, long margin transactions are subject to interest on the purchase amount, while short margin transactions are subject to fees for the lending of the shares borrowed. A margin equal to at least 30% of the transaction amount and at least ¥300,000 is required. With margin transactions, an amount up to roughly 3.3x the margin may be traded. Margin transactions therefore carry the risk of losses in excess of the margin owing to share price fluctuations. For details, please thoroughly read the written materials provided, such as listed securities documents or documents delivered before making a contract. Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. Financial instruments firm registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (registration No. 142) Member associations: Japan Securities Dealers Association; Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association; and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Additional information available upon request NIPlc and other Nomura Group entities manage conflicts identified through the following: their Chinese Wall, confidentiality and independence policies, maintenance of a Restricted List and a Watch List, personal account dealing rules, policies and procedures for managing conflicts of interest arising from the allocation and pricing of securities and impartial investment research and disclosure to clients via client documentation. Disclosure information is available at the Nomura Disclosure web page: http://www.nomura.com/research/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx

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