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1 Challenge the future
1
Agent-based modelling
and simulation
for energy scenario’s
Energy & Industry Section
9-10 October 2014
dr. ir. Zofia Lukszo
with contributions from
Emile Chappin
Igor Nikolic
Reinier van der Veen
Jorge Moncada
Technology, Policy and Management
2 Challenge the future
Existing research
on energy transition
Transition research
•Focus on process aspects: how to organize
the agenda, create visions. Few systematic
analyses/simulations/technological aspects.
We focus on
•Shaping the future… by
• Understanding the technicalities
• Understanding the markets
• Understanding behaviour
• Designing appropriate policies
• With games and models
Chappin & Ligtvoet, 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032113007624
3 Challenge the future
Our approach
• The world in interconnected “layers”:
• institutions: laws and regulations & values
• social processes - actors (multi-actor processes)
• physical systems (physical networks)
• Strong Complex Adaptive Systems perspective • Socio-technical complexity
• Evolution / coevolution / dynamics
• Multi level / Multi actors / Multi criteria / Multi time scale
4 Challenge the future
Agent-Based Model (ABM)
Basics to illustrate the concept
agent agent
tech. tech.
Koen H. van Dam, Igor Nikolic and Zofia Lukszo (Eds.), Agent-based modelling
of socio-technical systems, 275 p., Springer, 2013
5 Challenge the future
Power sector complex socio-technical
system
6 Challenge the future
Agent-Based Modelling
• Actors are modelled as individual agents who make autonomous
decisions
• E.g. an energy producer agent decides on investment
• Agents make decisions based on the others: they interact
• E.g. investment decision is based on expected power prices, which are
affected by past investments
• The decisions together determine to system-wide developments and
performance
• E.g. electricity prices are influenced by the bids of individual players in
the market, which base those on their portfolio
8 Challenge the future
Simulating Energy Transitions. Emile Chappin, 2011, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Thesis, 2011. ISBN: 9789079787302
9 Challenge the future
Example (2): bio jet fuel supply chains
• Systematically exploring the emergence of renewable jet fuel supply chains.
• How do the biomass markets for food, transportation fuels, green electricity and industrial products interact, and how do biomass support schemes in different countries interact?
• Which (constellation of) incentive system(s) is/are most likely effective for the emergence of a renewable jet fuel supply chain?
10 Challenge the future
Biofuel supply chain
Biomass Market
Oil market biodiesel
biodiesel market
Blend biodiesel market
Biomass Market
Oil Market food
Fossil fuel Market
Government
Mass flow
Incentives flow
Economic flow
Information flow
Ownership
Farmers Oil mill companies Biodiesel producers Distributors
Gas stations
11 Challenge the future
Example (3): Modelling gas interconnectors
and gas trading at border points
Under what conditions can (emerging) institutions lead to reduced congestion and increased trading at gas border points?
12 Challenge the future
Example (4) – Car as a Power Plant
• design, assess and analyse the fuel cell car as power plant
(CaPP) in integrated transport and energy systems
• investigate and design robust control systems of CaPP-based
smart energy systems
• explore effective incentive and organizational structures for
the emergence of CaPP integrated energy and transport
system
13 Challenge the future
24 October, 2014
13
14 Challenge the future
• Agent-based models • Linked open data • Serious games
15 Challenge the future
16 Challenge the future
24 October, 2014
16
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