alexander e. macdonald, ph.d . deputy assistant administrator for labs and cooperative institutes

Alexander E. MacDonald, Ph.D.Deputy Assistant Administrator for Labs

and Cooperative Institutes & Director, Earth System Research Laboratory

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

Global Change and its Effect on the Arctic

Human caused climate change is accelerating.

Arctic: The place of maximum change.

Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.

NOAA and the national climate service.

TALK SUMMARY

Human caused climate change is accelerating.

Arctic: The place of maximum change.

Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.

NOAA and the national climate service.

TALK SUMMARY

The World Has Warmed

Widespread warming has occurred. Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land and ocean.

IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

The World Is Still Warm (post-IPCC 2007)

La Nina

www.realclimate.org Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

What About 2008?

• Recently: Relatively cool in the Americas (due to La Nina in Pacific ocean) but warm elsewhere.

• 2008: likely to be in the top ten globally warmest years. (NCDC, UKMO, others) NASA GISS analysis

Temperature Change Compared to the Average for 1951-1980

Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

Rising atmospheric temperature

Rising sea level

Reduction in NH snow cover

And……

Atmospheric water vapor increasing

Glaciers retreating

Arctic sea ice extent decreasing

Extreme temperatures increasing

………….

Warming is Unequivocal

Many Changes Signal A Warming World

IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

CARBON DIOXIDE

• A critical greenhouse gas

• Dramatic increase in industrial era, ‘forcing’ climate change

• Higher concentration than for more than 600,000 years

Human Drivers of Climate Change: Unprecedented

IPCC WG1 (2007)Slide courtesy of Susan Solomon

Mauna Loa De-Seasonalized Post-Industrial Carbon Dioxide

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Pa

rts

per

Mill

ion

(log

arith

mic

sca

le)

30

40

50

60708090

100

150

200

300

Observations(278 ppm

pre-industrial subtracted)

2 X CO2

Exponential Increase:Doubling Time = 32 years

2 X CO2 = 2 x 278 ppm = 556 ppmYear at 556 ppm ~ 2050

Human caused climate change is accelerating.

Arctic: The place of maximum change.

Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.

NOAA and the national climate service.

TALK SUMMARY

Model projection for 2100

Continents Warm 40% more than oceans

IPCC AR4 Projected Patterns

of Precipitation Changes 2007

• Summer and Winter

There are large amounts of carbon in the Arctic that could be released in a rapidly warming world.

Permafrost (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (Observed)

One of the latest models of the Arctic predicts the end of the Arctic as we know it during the 2030s.

(Holland et al, 2006)

Human caused climate change is accelerating.

Arctic: The place of maximum change.

Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.

NOAA and the national climate service.

TALK SUMMARY

Arctic Research

Earth System Research Laboratory

Mission: To observe and understand the Earth system and to develop products through a commitment to research that will advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scales.

LEADEX 1992: Be careful when nature calls!!!

ARCPAC: NOAA airborne science.

Earth System models will allow improved prediction of long term climate.

Human caused climate change is accelerating.

Arctic: The place of maximum change.

Earth System Science can deliver better predictions.

NOAA and the national climate service.

TALK SUMMARY

• We are developing a comprehensive & coordinated NOAA Arctic effort.

• NOAA is working with partners now to develop official long-term sea ice projection products.

• NOAA is proposed to be the U.S. Government single authoritative source for climate information – National Climate Service.

Potential NOAA Role in Arctic Long Term Prediction

• Observed changes far exceed model projections

• Sea ice forecast improvements are essential to better understanding regional and global causes and consequences of Arctic change

• Decadal & centennial sea ice forecasts are not currently produced and many users & stakeholders need the information for planning

• Gov’t & commercial marine transportation safety

• Marine commerce operations / planning• Offshore oil & gas extraction• Coastal erosion / coastal zone management• Survival of ice-dependent species• Emergency & spill response

Fisheries & ecosystem management Environmental info for regulation & policy Security & governance Transportation / seasonal shipping routes Energy development Tourism industry

Questions . . . .

alexander.e.macdonald@noaa.gov